Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Scenario Development”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16

Modeling Losses in a Three Electrode System Towards Fast Charge Control

In this work we demonstrate the applicability of a versatile separator-reference mounted electrode in a three-electrode setup to accurately capture the primary current pathway in the battery cell during operation, calibrate a porous electrode model to the individual anode and cathode potential signals, and assign the various resistances to electrochemical phenomena in the battery cell. This calibrated electrochemical model is validated using continuous rate discharges associated with highway driving scenarios in an electric vehicle, and in turn utilized to predict the local anode potential and proximity to lithium plating onset. Finally, we demonstrate the strategy associated with utilization of the model to estimate constant anode potential charging during fast charge scenarios at various rates and starting conditions as a future look to fast charge calibration development and controls.

Garrick, Taylor R. (ORCID:0000000322518129)↗

Platinum Group Metals Global Economics Market Supply

Due to uncertainty in the transition away from internal combustion engines (and more importantly, the catalytic convertors these automobiles use), there is large uncertainty in the future of the PGM market. However, proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers could be a new demand application for PGMs. Therefore, a model was developed which utilizes the system dynamics approach to predict supply and prices for specific demand scenarios. Results indicated that the total PGM market value sees a decline in the late 2020s due to changing automotive application demand. Market decline was due to decreasing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle demand resulting in less PGMs supplied for automotive applications. Compounding market decline was an increase in secondary supply of PGMs as more ICE automotives reach their EOL pushing PGM prices down as secondary supply increases while demand simultaneously decreases. Following the market decline, an increase in market value in the early 2030s was observed due to deployment of hydrogen fuel cell technologies and subsequent increase in PGM demand

Kulkarni, Sameer (0000000227573592)↗

A Tale of Two Simulators—A Comparative Human-in-the-Loop Nuclear Power Plant Operations Study on Thermal Power Dispatch for Hydrogen Production

A study was designed for a reconfigurable, full-scale, full-scope nuclear power plant control room simulator to compare two different thermal power dispatch systems, on separate simulator platforms, demonstrating a TPD concept of operation. A TPD system can provide a desirable alternative revenue source for utilities but requires addressing new and unique operational issues. The selection of representative scenarios and the scenario-based experimental design are presented as key elements to capture evidence for validating the developed TPD concept of operations overcome these operational issues.

Ulrich, Thomas A.↗

Image Reconstruction from Sparse-view Data Acquired with Portable X-ray Devices

• Portable X-ray systems enable on-site 3D imaging for non-invasive inspection of suspicious packages and explosives. • Existing reconstruction algorithms (e.g., FDK or Feldkamp, Davis and Kress) require hundreds of projections over 360 degrees. • Sparse-view scan reduces scanning time and setup effort, making it ideal for field use in timecritical scenarios. • Existing reconstruction algorithms introduce severe artifacts when applied to sparse-view data. • We developed a total variation (TV)-based optimization algorithm for yielding 3D images from sparse-view data collected with our portable X-ray imaging system.

Xia, Dan [University of Chicago, Chicago, IL]↗

FY24 – FY25 Efforts to Revive the ANS-54.8 Liquid Metal Fire Protection in LMR Plants Standard

The current multi-year effort seeks to utilize national laboratory support from Argonne to expedite revival of the ANS-54.8 standard titled “Liquid Metal Fire Protection in LMR Plants.” To achieve that objective, the following tasks were identified: Task 1 involves working directly with ANS to revive the ANS-54.8 Working Group. This was to be accomplished by completing necessary paperwork, submitting that paperwork to ANS for approval, enlisting potential working group members from industry, the NRC, national laboratories, and universities, and organizing and leading Working Group activities. The overall purpose of the Working Group is to develop an updated draft of ANS-54.8 for review and approval by ANS consensus committees, the ANS Standards Board, and certification from ANSI. Task 2 focuses on leveraging historical information and expertise at Argonne related to sodium fire protection systems and strategies. For more than a decade, Argonne has worked on both international and domestic projects related to sodium fire protection system development and evaluation. The goal of this task is to utilize that experience to help inform the ANS-54.8 Working Group on important considerations that may be addressed in an updated draft of ANS-54.8. Task 3 focuses on leveraging Argonne experience in the development of and use of analysis methods and tools for the simulation of sodium fire scenarios and evaluation of the effectiveness of sodium fire protection systems and strategies. For more than a decade, Argonne has recovered, modified, and utilized several historical sodium fire analysis software tools. The goal of this task is to utilize that experience to help inform the ANS-54.8 Working Group of best practices for sodium fire progression analysis that may be addressed in an updated draft of ANS-54.8.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Physics basis for the reference flat-top plasma scenario in the ST–E1 fusion power plant

As part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Milestone-Based Fusion Energy Development Program, Tokamak Energy has completed the pre-concept design of the ST–E1 fusion power plant. ST–E1 is envisaged to operate in two phases: a pilot plant phase, targeting sustained net power production of 300 - 500 MWe for a duration >1 hr, followed by a commercial power plant phase targeting steady-state operations and a normalised overnight capital cost of ⩽12 000 $\$$/kWe. The design process adopted was highly iterative, integrating all major plant systems and progressing in a phased fidelity approach. At the pre-conceptual stage, the emphasis has been on exploring the design space, identifying the main system-level trade-offs, and making the key decisions that define the overall plant concept, rather than optimising a single operating point. This paper, part of a focused collection detailing the ST–E1 pre-concept design, addresses the development of a series of reference flat-top plasma operating points for the pilot plant phase. A modelling workflow was established to develop and assess candidate plasma design points and explore key dependencies. The workflow includes integrated core plasma modelling, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability assessment, equilibrium generation, scrape-off-layer and exhaust modelling, heating & current drive design and optimisation, and turbulent transport modelling. Using this framework, the impact of several key parameters on the flat-top operating space was investigated, including the density limit, core radiation fraction and divertor power loading, level of external heating and curent drive power and assumed pedestal characteristics. The MHD stability, controllability and micro-stability characteristics of these plasmas were also analysed. These investigations informed the definition of a set of fully non-inductive, flat-top reference operating points that satisfy the high-level ST–E1 mission, including a low and high density case, a case that is stable to resistive wall modes and a case with reduced divertor power loading.

ST–E1↗

Long-Range Biometric Identification in Real World Scenarios: A Comprehensive Evaluation Framework Based on Missions

The considerable body of data available for evaluating biometric recognition systems in Research and Development (R&D) environments has contributed to the increasingly common problem of target performance mismatch. Biometric algorithms are frequently tested against data that may not reflect the real world applications they target. From a Testing and Evaluation (T&E) standpoint, this domain mismatch causes difficulty assessing when improvements in State-of-the-Art (SOTA) research actually translate to improved applied outcomes. This problem can be addressed with thoughtful preparation of data and experimental methods to reflect specific use-cases and scenarios.To that end, this paper evaluates research solutions for identifying individuals at ranges and altitudes, which could support various application areas such as counterterrorism, protection of critical infrastructure facilities, military force protection, and border security. We address challenges including image quality issues and reliance on face recognition as the sole biometric modality. By fusing face and body features, we propose developing robust biometric systems for effective long-range identification from both the ground and steep pitch angles. Preliminary results show promising progress in whole-body recognition. This paper presents these early findings and discusses potential future directions for advancing long-range biometric identification systems based on mission-driven metrics.

Aykac, Deniz↗

Accelerating cavity fault prediction using deep learning at Jefferson Laboratory

Abstract Accelerating cavities are an integral part of the continuous electron beam accelerator facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Laboratory. When any of the over 400 cavities in CEBAF experiences a fault, it disrupts beam delivery to experimental user halls. In this study, we propose the use of a deep learning model to predict slowly developing cavity faults. By utilizing pre-fault signals, we train a long short-term memory-convolutional neural network binary classifier to distinguish between radio-frequency (RF) signals during normal operation and RF signals indicative of impending faults. We optimize the model by adjusting the fault confidence threshold and implementing a multiple consecutive window criterion to identify fault events, ensuring a low false positive rate. Results obtained from analysis of a real dataset collected from the accelerating cavities simulating a deployed scenario demonstrate the model’s ability to identify normal signals with 99.99% accuracy and correctly predict 80% of slowly developing faults. Notably, these achievements were achieved in the context of a highly imbalanced dataset, and fault predictions were made several hundred milliseconds before the onset of the fault. Anticipating faults enables preemptive measures to improve operational efficiency by preventing or mitigating their occurrence.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

METHOD FOR EXPOSING IRRADIATED FUEL CLADDING TO RAPID THERMAL TRANSIENTS

Reactor core materials exposed to rapid thermal transients during accidents can experience significant changes in mechanical properties as irradiation hardness is recovered. Understanding material performance during transients using computer modeling requires accurate descriptions of mechanical property evolution with time and temperature. A simple experimental capability was developed to expose irradiated Zircaloy to a simulated thermal transient using immersion in molten tin (at 675°C) to rapidly heat and hold before rapidly cooling with a water quench. Multiple heating-cooling cycles using a nonirradiated tensile specimen showed simplicity and viability. Based on preliminary test results, a robust system was established for routine evaluation of simulated thermal accident scenarios in the Low Activation Materials Design and Analysis (LAMDA) laboratory at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This paper summarizes system development and nonirradiated Zircaloy commissioning test results. Future experiments will conduct tensile tests on irradiated Zircaloy after various rapid temperature profiles.

Byun, TS↗

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Technoeconomic Analysis of Steel Production with Electric Thermal Energy Storage

The iron and steel industry is an important manufacturing sector and one of the largest energy consumers in the United States and globally. Hydrogen direct reduction of iron ore (H2DRI) is considered a promising process that could enhance domestic steel production. This process requires hydrogen inlet temperatures up to 950 degrees C to drive the endothermic reduction of the iron ore pellets. In this work we investigate the technoeconomic performance of an H2DRI plant using electric thermal energy storage (ETES) technologies for the hydrogen heating, compared to conventional natural gas fired heaters, hydrogen fired heaters, and electric hydrogen heaters. A technoeconomic analysis framework for the plant is developed and used in multiple case studies, covering different hydrogen prices, grid electricity profiles, and financing scenarios. The levelized cost of steel production is found out to be in the range of $775-950/mt, which is mostly inside the benchmarked steel price of $941/mt. ETES-based hydrogen heating is found to be in par with conventional natural gas fired heaters, and cheaper than hydrogen fired heaters and electric hydrogen heaters. The major cost drivers are the iron ore and hydrogen feedstock, followed by the hydrogen compression and heating capital. Several insights and suggested future directions are identified.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Predicting Damages to Remainder Parcels in Right-of-Way Acquisitions for Expanding Transportation Infrastructure: Using a Truncated Finite-Mixture Model

Right-of-way acquisition is a critical component of transportation infrastructure development. Transportation infrastructure projects cannot proceed without proper right-of-way acquisition or may face significant delays. State Departments of Transportation frequently acquire parcels of land for roadway expansion projects. A majority of these acquisitions can be partial takings, referring to a portion of a parcel that is acquired. The remainder of the property usually suffers economic changes due to the partial acquisition, which can be calculated as damage percentages. The damage percentage represents the extent to which the remaining land or property value has been diminished due to the acquisition. It reflects the remaining property value percentage that may have been lost or compromised due to the acquisition. Here, this study aims to provide a robust model to estimate damage percentages to the remainder parcels that may help state Departments of Transportation appraisers make early predictions about the damages in cases involving partial takings. The research uses 509 appraisal reports from the Tennessee Department of Transportation to identify the key parcel attributes that influence the percentage of damages. Three regression models are developed: a linear regression model, a finite-mixture model (FMM), and a truncated FMM with two latent classes. The modeling results show that the truncated FMM with two classes outperforms the other models. To validate the models, actual sales data is collected and analyzed for 59 properties, and the results suggest that the model predictions are fairly accurate. A predictive tool is developed based on the models to help appraisers anticipate right-of-way damages under different scenarios and can provide early predictions about the damages.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Comprehensive Review of Working Fluids for High-Temperature Heat Pumps: History, Selection, and Evaluation

High-temperature heat pumps (HTHPs) are essential for enhancing energy efficiency across various industrial applications, especially in terms of integrating with renewable energy sources and recovering waste heat. This article thoroughly investigates suitable working fluids for HTHPs, highlighting the evolution from traditional refrigerants to contemporary alternatives with low global warming potential (GWP). It proposes comprehensive selection criteria for these working fluids, pre-selects low-GWP working fluids, and outlines a screening methodology. The pre-selected low-GWP working fluids are evaluated for applications in three typical industrial scenarios involving HTHPs. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that regulatory compliance and environmental impacts significantly influence the development of next-generation refrigerants. The choice of working fluids is closely linked to the types of vapor compression cycles, tailored to the specific industrial applications for HTHPs. This study emphasizes areas for future research, including the development of innovative working fluids; integrated strategies that account for performance, safety, and regulatory standards; alignment of HTHP components; exploration of natural working fluids; and broadening the applications of existing working fluids.

Compression↗

Evaluating HPC Scheduling Strategies for Urgent Workloads

Scientific computing centers increasingly face workloads with diverse urgency requirements, driven by applications that demand rapid or even immediate execution. Appropriately configured scheduling policies can significantly improve both user satisfaction and overall cluster utilization. In this work, we present a systematic analysis of scheduler configurations under scenarios where a fraction of jobs have urgent computing needs. We evaluate multiple job scheduling simulators, develop a lightweight job-submission emulation framework, and create tools to analyze and visualize the resulting scheduling data. Our study identifies key trade-offs between responsiveness, fairness, and efficiency, and offers a set of practical scheduling configurations (particularly for Slurm) that can be tailored to HPC environments supporting mixed-urgency workloads.

Maheshwari, Ketan [ORNL] (ORCID:000000033800662X)↗

A Melanoma Brain Metastasis CTC Signature and CTC:B-cell Clusters Associate with Secondary Liver Metastasis: A Melanoma Brain–Liver Metastasis Axis

Melanoma brain metastasis is linked to dismal prognosis and low overall survival and is detected in up to 80% of patients at autopsy. Circulating tumor cells (CTC) are the smallest functional units of cancer and precursors of fatal metastasis. We previously used an unbiased multilevel approach to discover a unique ribosomal protein large/small subunit (RPL/RPS) CTC gene signature associated with melanoma brain metastasis. In this study, we hypothesized that CTC-driven melanoma brain metastasis secondary metastasis (“metastasis of metastasis” per clinical scenarios) has targeted organ specificity for the liver. We injected parallel cohorts of immunodeficient and newly developed humanized NBSGW (huNBSGW) mice with cells from CTC-derived melanoma brain metastasis to identify secondary metastatic patterns. We found the presence of a melanoma brain–liver metastasis axis in huNBSGW mice. Furthermore, RNA sequencing analysis of tissues showed a significant upregulation of the RPL/RPS CTC gene signature linked to metastatic spread to the liver. Additional RNA sequencing of CTCs from huNBSGW blood revealed extensive CTC clustering with human B cells in these mice. CTC:B-cell clusters were also upregulated in the blood of patients with primary melanoma and maintained either in CTC-driven melanoma brain metastasis or melanoma brain metastasis CTC–derived cells promoting liver metastasis. CTC-generated tumor tissues were interrogated at single-cell gene and protein expression levels (10x Genomics Xenium and HALO spatial biology platforms, respectively). Collectively, our findings suggest that heterotypic CTC:B-cell interactions can be critical at multiple stages of metastasis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Geothermal Reservoir Simulation Analysis in Support of Electricity Co-Production Feasibility Study at the Blackburn Oil Field, Nevada: Preprint

Geothermal electricity co-production is a viable option for oil reservoirs producing large water cuts with elevated wellhead-observed temperatures. Repurposing existing oil wells significantly reduces initial investment costs historically associated with geothermal resource utilization. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), partnering with Gradient Geothermal, Inc. (formerly known as Transitional Energy) and Grant Canyon Oil and Gas, has been tasked to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal electricity co-production at the Blackburn Oil Field with Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) generators. The Devonian steady-state reservoir has historically been producing high water cuts of 240 degrees F (115.6 degrees C) observed at the wellhead without documented pressure drawdown or thermal breakthrough. An estimated initial reservoir temperature of approx. 260degreesF (126.7 degrees C) has been observed in the field and history-matched in a wellbore production analysis and reservoir simulation. Our objective was to develop a conceptual geological model of the subsurface, simulate a natural-state reservoir, model production scenarios, and complete a technical feasibility analysis to accomplish this task. Through extensive modeling and the use of available proprietary and public data, it was possible simulate three scenarios that indicated minimal thermal decline over the duration of a simulated ten-year production and re-injection scheme.

Blackburn Nevada↗

Geothermal Reservoir Simulation Analysis in Support of Electricity Co-Production Feasibility Study at the Blackburn Oil Field, Nevada

Geothermal electricity co-production is a viable option for oil reservoirs producing large water cuts with elevated wellhead temperatures. Repurposing existing oil wells significantly reduces initial investment costs historically associated with geothermal resource utilization. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), partnering with Gradient Geothermal, Inc. (formerly known as Transitional Energy) and Grant Canyon Oil and Gas, has been tasked to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal electricity co-production at the Blackburn Oil Field with Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) generators. The Devonian steady-state reservoir has historically been producing high water cuts of 240 degrees F (115.6 degrees C) observed at the wellhead without documented pressure drawdown or thermal breakthrough. An estimated initial reservoir temperature of approx. 260 degrees F (126.7 degrees C) has been observed in the field and history-matched in a wellbore production analysis and reservoir simulation. Our objective was to develop a conceptual geological model of the subsurface, simulate a natural-state reservoir, model production scenarios, and complete a technical feasibility analysis to accomplish this task. Through extensive modeling and the use of available proprietary and public data, it was possible simulate three scenarios that indicated minimal thermal decline over the duration of a simulated ten-year production and re-injection scheme.

Blackburn Nevada↗