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DOE OSTI2026

Observed Temperature and Moisture Advection Characteristics in the Southern Great Plains

Until recently, advection profiles in the planetary boundary layer have been difficult to quantify from observations. As a result, not much is known about its basic characteristics, like magnitude and diurnal cycles, or how these differ as a function of large-scale environments. Here, to provide insight into advective characteristics, a Green’s Theorem–based method for calculating profiles of advection in the lowest 3 km from an array of ground-based thermodynamic and kinematic profiling instruments has been applied to 2 years of observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) observing site. Since advection largely depends on synoptic-scale forcing, a self-organizing map (SOM) was used to classify days based on mean sea level pressure analyses; from that, the diurnal evolution of vertical profiles of advection for different synoptic environments was quantified. The overall mean magnitude of the potential temperature advection is approximately ±3 K h −1 , while the moisture advection is approximately ±1.5 g kg −1 h −1 , with substantial variability in the sign and magnitude of the advective tendencies at different heights and throughout the diurnal cycle. Advection magnitude is strongly connected to the strength of synoptic-scale forcing, which varies depending on the time of year. Variability in advection is larger for potential temperature than it is for moisture, and strongly forced environments, like midlatitude cyclones, feature greater variability in the advection magnitude than weakly forced or quiescent environments.

advection↗

DOE OSTI2023

Vertical Structure and Ice Production Processes of Shallow Convective Postfrontal Clouds over the Southern Ocean in MARCUS. Part I: Observational Study

A study of the vertical structure of postfrontal shallow clouds in the marine boundary layer over the Southern Ocean is presented here. The central question of this two-part study regards cloud phase (liquid/ice) of precipitation, and the associated growth mechanisms. In this first part, data from the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) field campaign are analyzed, starting with a 75-h case with continuous sea surface-based thermal instability, modest surface heat fluxes, an open-cellular mesoscale organization, and very few ice nucleating particles (INPs). The clouds are mostly precipitating and shallow (tops mostly around 2 km above sea level), with weak up- and downdrafts, and with cloud-top temperatures generally around –18° to –10°C. Further, the case study is extended to three other periods of postfrontal shallow clouds in MARCUS. While abundant supercooled liquid water is commonly present, an experimental cloud-phase algorithm classifies nearly two-thirds of clouds in the 0° to –5°C layer as containing ice (cloud ice, snow, or mixed phase), implying that much of the precipitation grows through cold-cloud processes. The best predictors of ice presence are cloud-top temperature, cloud depth, and INP concentration. Measures of convective activity and turbulence are found to be poor indicators of ice presence in the studied environment. The water-phase distribution in this cloud regime is explored through numerical simulations in Part II. Significance Statement: Climate models generally predict a lower albedo than observed over the Southern Ocean, and this is largely attributed to a lack of cloudiness, especially in the postfrontal cold sector of midlatitude cyclones. This in turn may be due to an excess of ice in these simulated clouds, resulting in rapid precipitation fallout and an overly brief cloud lifespan. The objective of this study is to examine whether shallow postfrontal clouds over the Southern Ocean are dominated by supercooled drops, or by snow and ice, using data collected by a U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility deployed aboard an Australian Antarctic supply vessel. We find that these clouds contain much supercooled liquid, even though cloud-top temperatures generally are around –18° to –8°C, and that about two-thirds of the clouds just above the freezing level contain ice. Much of the precipitation appears to grow through cold-cloud processes above the freezing level, rather than drizzle/rain. Updrafts and/or turbulence in convection or in cloud-top generating cells do not initiate much ice, compared to observations elsewhere in a similar temperature range. This may be attributable to the extremely low concentration of ice nucleating particles in this environment. Ultimately, the deepest clouds with the coldest cloud tops are most likely to be ice dominated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Surface Radiation Balance Dataset from Siple Dome in West Antarctica for Atmospheric and Climate Model Evaluation

Abstract A field campaign at Siple Dome in West Antarctica during the austral summer 2019/20 offers an opportunity to evaluate climate model performance, particularly cloud microphysical simulation. Over Antarctic ice sheets and ice shelves, clouds are a major regulator of the surface energy balance, and in the warm season their presence occasionally induces surface melt that can gradually weaken an ice shelf structure. This dataset from Siple Dome, obtained using transportable and solar-powered equipment, includes surface energy balance measurements, meteorology, and cloud remote sensing. To demonstrate how these data can be used to evaluate model performance, comparisons are made with meteorological reanalysis known to give generally good performance over Antarctica (ERA5). Surface albedo measurements show expected variability with observed cloud amount, and can be used to evaluate a model’s snowpack parameterization. One case study discussed involves a squall with northerly winds, during which ERA5 fails to produce cloud cover throughout one of the days. A second case study illustrates how shortwave spectroradiometer measurements that encompass the 1.6- μ m atmospheric window reveal cloud phase transitions associated with cloud life cycle. Here, continuously precipitating mixed-phase clouds become mainly liquid water clouds from local morning through the afternoon, not reproduced by ERA5. We challenge researchers to run their various regional or global models in a manner that has the large-scale meteorology follow the conditions of this field campaign, compare cloud and radiation simulations with this Siple Dome dataset, and potentially investigate why cloud microphysical simulations or other model components might produce discrepancies with these observations. significance statement Antarctica is a critical region for understanding climate change and sea level rise, as the great ice sheets and the ice shelves are subject to increasing risk as global climate warms. Climate models have difficulties over Antarctica, particularly with simulation of cloud properties that regulate snow surface melting or refreezing. Atmospheric and climate-related field work has significant challenges in the Antarctic, due to the small number of research stations that can support state-of-the-art equipment. Here we present new data from a suite of transportable and solar-powered instruments that can be deployed to remote Antarctic sites, including regions where ice shelves are most at risk, and we demonstrate how key components of climate model simulations can be evaluated against these data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decadal Thermal Variability of the Upper Southern Ocean: Zonal Asymmetry

Abstract As the major sink of anthropogenic heat, the Southern Ocean has shown quasi-symmetric, deep-reaching warming since the mid-twentieth century. In comparison, the shorter-term heat storage pattern of the Southern Ocean is more complex and has notable impacts on regional climate and marine ecosystems. By analyzing observational datasets and climate model simulations, this study reveals that the Southern Ocean exhibits prominent decadal (>8 years) variability extending to ∼700-m depth and is characterized by out-of-phase changes in the Pacific and Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors. Changes in the Pacific sector are larger in magnitude than those in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors and dominate the total heat storage of the Southern Ocean on decadal time scales. Instead of heat uptake through surface heat fluxes, these asymmetric variations arise primarily from wind-driven heat redistribution. Pacemaker and preindustrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) suggest that these variations in Southern Ocean winds arise primarily from natural variability of the tropical Pacific, as represented by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Through atmospheric teleconnection, the positive phase of the IPO gives rise to higher-than-normal sea level pressure and anticyclonic wind anomalies in the 50°–70°S band of the Pacific sector. These winds lead to warming of 0–700 m by driving the convergence of warm water. The opposite processes, involving cyclonic winds and upper-layer divergence, occur in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sector. These findings aid our understanding of the time-varying heat storage of the Southern Ocean and provide useful implications on initialized decadal climate prediction.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Internal Variability in Springtime Arctic Amplification from 1980 to 2022

Arctic amplification (AA) refers to the enhanced warming of the Arctic relative to the global average due to rising greenhouse gases, measured as the ratio of Arctic-mean to global-mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends. From 1980 to 2022, annual-mean AA reached 4.2 (Arctic defined as north of 70°N). Climate models simulate AA but fail to reproduce its magnitude. Sweeney et al. attributed much of this model–observation discrepancy to internal variability. AA shows seasonality and so does the discrepancy. Spring (March–May) shows the largest gap: Observed AA is 4.2, while the multimodel mean is 2.7. This raises several questions: 1) What role does internal variability play in observed spring AA? 2) How does simulated spring AA compare to observations when internal variability is removed? 3) If internal variability is significant, what mechanisms drive it? To address these, we adapted the machine learning algorithm from Sweeney et al., training on simulated multidecadal spring SAT and sea level pressure (SLP) trend maps. Our results show that internal variability enhanced spring Arctic warming by 37% and reduced global warming by 10%. Removing internal variability reconciles the spring AA discrepancy. The estimated internal contribution to Arctic spring warming is supported by an independent dynamical adjustment approach. We identify an atmospheric circulation pattern in observations associated with this internal warming. Observed internal Siberian SAT and SLP trends follow the simulated SAT–SLP relationship but lie at the distribution’s extreme, suggesting models generally underestimate internal variability unless the observed configuration reflects a rare real-world realization.

Arctic↗

DOE OSTI2025

Middle and Late-Holocene coastal environments of far Southeastern Russia as inferred from palynological and diatom data

Existing discontinuous palynological records from coastal and river valley exposures, with varying quality of radiocarbon control, suggested that the regional Holocene climate in southern areas of the Russian Far East was characterized by as many as 10 fluctuations in temperature and/or precipitation. In this study, palynological data from Zerkalnoye Lake, located on the western coast of the Sea of Japan, indicate a gradual decline in temperature through the Middle and Late-Holocene with a Holocene thermal maximum between 8800 and 5500 cal yr BP. Three wetter than present intervals, marked by an increase in Pinus koraiensis, occurred c. 3600–3500 cal yr BP, 2340–2050 cal yr BP, and 1830–1800 cal yr BP. The Zerkalnoye record shows the dominance of Quercus-broadleaf forests during the Middle and Early Holocene, although Quercus shows a gradual decrease as climate cooled during this interval. Diatom analysis of the Zerkalnoye sediments documents that the site was a shallow bay or coastal lagoon until c. 3540 cal yr BP. After that time, a freshwater lake was established, which had variable marine influences probably caused by sea level changes following deglaciation. The diatom data indicate a cool water interval between 2900 and 2580 cal yr BP, also noted in other sites in the region. Changes in the basin’s depositional environment do not affect the palynological record, indicating such sites can provide reliable paleovegetational and paleoclimatic records. In conclusion, the discrepancies of the various regional paleoclimatic scenarios indicate the need for the further collection of continuous records from coastal to alpine zones in this region of northeastern Asia.

Environmental sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Performance portable ice-sheet modeling with MALI

High-resolution simulations of polar ice sheets play a crucial role in the ongoing effort to develop more accurate and reliable Earth system models for probabilistic sea-level projections. These simulations often require a massive amount of memory and computation from large supercomputing clusters to provide sufficient accuracy and resolution; therefore, it has become essential to ensure performance on these platforms. Many of today’s supercomputers contain a diverse set of computing architectures and require specific programming interfaces in order to obtain optimal efficiency. In an effort to avoid architecture-specific programming and maintain productivity across platforms, the ice-sheet modeling code known as MPAS-Albany Land Ice (MALI) uses high-level abstractions to integrate Trilinos libraries and the Kokkos programming model for performance portable code across a variety of different architectures. In this article, we analyze the performance portable features of MALI via a performance analysis on current CPU-based and GPU-based supercomputers. The analysis highlights not only the performance portable improvements made in finite element assembly and multigrid preconditioning within MALI with speedups between 1.26 and 1.82x across CPU and GPU architectures but also identifies the need to further improve performance in software coupling and preconditioning on GPUs. We perform a weak scalability study and show that simulations on GPU-based machines perform 1.24–1.92x faster when utilizing the GPUs. The best performance is found in finite element assembly, which achieved a speedup of up to 8.65x and a weak scaling efficiency of 82.6% with GPUs. We additionally describe an automated performance testing framework developed for this code base using a changepoint detection method. The framework is used to make actionable decisions about performance within MALI. We provide several concrete examples of scenarios in which the framework has identified performance regressions, improvements, and algorithm differences over the course of 2 years of development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pre-Cambrian roots of novel Antarctic cryptoendolithic bacterial lineages

Cryptoendolithic communities are microbial ecosystems dwelling inside porous rocks that are able to persist at the edge of the biological potential for life in the ice-free areas of the Antarctic desert. These regions include the McMurdo Dry Valleys, often accounted as the closest terrestrial counterpart of the Martian environment and thought to be devoid of life until the discovery of these cryptic life-forms. Despite their interest as a model for the early colonization by living organisms of terrestrial ecosystems and for adaptation to extreme conditions of stress, little is known about the evolution, diversity, and genetic makeup of bacterial species that reside in these environments. Using the Illumina Novaseq platform, we generated the first metagenomes from rocks collected in Continental Antarctica over a distance of about 350 km along an altitudinal transect from 834 up to 3100 m above sea level (a.s.l.). A total of 497 draft bacterial genome sequences were assembled and clustered into 269 candidate species that lack a representative genome in public databases. Actinobacteria represent the most abundant phylum, followed by Chloroflexi and Proteobacteria. The “Candidatus Jiangella antarctica” has been recorded across all samples, suggesting a high adaptation and specialization of this species to the harshest Antarctic desert environment. The majority of these new species belong to monophyletic bacterial clades that diverged from related taxa in a range from 1.2 billion to 410 Ma and are functionally distinct from known related taxa. Our findings significantly increase the repertoire of genomic data for several taxa and, to date, represent the first example of bacterial genomes recovered from endolithic communities. Their ancient origin seems to not be related to the geological history of the continent, rather they may represent evolutionary remnants of pristine clades that evolved across the Tonian glaciation. These unique genomic resources will underpin future studies on the structure, evolution, and function of these ecosystems at the edge of life.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Biogeochemical Changes in Estuaries

The biogeochemical composition of materials suspended and dissolved in estuarine waters is substantially transformed by biological and abiotic processes as water from rivers and subterranean aquifers travels through estuaries to the coastal ocean, influencing the rate of storage and/or exchange of carbon with the atmosphere. Biogeochemical signatures in the upper reaches of estuaries (e.g., low salinity) generally reflect characteristics of the rivers and groundwater draining into the estuary. The composition of organic matter (OM) where rivers meet estuaries is a mixture of terrigenous signatures dependent on watershed landscape features, aquatic signatures dependent on the prominence of freshwater primary productivity, and intermediate metabolites (i.e., byproducts of in situ transformation) of these terrigenous and aquatic OM sources. The prominence of aquatic primary production-derived OM and products of microbial decomposition generally increases towards the lower reaches of estuaries where they meet the coastal ocean (i.e.., continental shelf). The nature of biogeochemical transformations occurring along estuarine gradients is closely coupled with factors that are poised to change under multiple compounding disturbances and stress factors related to both climate change and other anthropogenic global changes. This chapter describes the fundamental mechanisms that drive the transport, transformation, and storage of OM in estuaries and how these dynamics have and may continue to change in response to key disturbances and stressors related to climate change and other anthropogenic global changes including warming, intensifying hydrological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods), sea level rise, and acidification.

Ward, Nicholas D.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Incorporating adaptation and resilience into an integrated watershed and coral reef management plan

Changing environmental conditions are forcing natural resource managers and communities to adapt their strategies to account for global shifts in precipitation, temperature, sea level and more, all of which are occurring in addition to local human impacts. Adapting to threats from climate change requires a fundamental shift in the practice of natural resource management through the development of forward-looking “climate-smart” goals and strategies. Here we present a proof-of-concept application of a decision-support tool to help design climate-smart management actions for the watershed and coral reef management plan for Guánica Bay watershed in southwest Puerto Rico. We also explore the connection between adaptation planning and coral reef resilience, using a recently developed Puerto Rico-wide reef resilience assessment. In the first phase of the study, we used the publicly available Adaptation Design Tool to draft initial climate-smart versions of twelve proposed management actions. In the second phase, two actions (dirt road management on steep slopes, and coral reef restoration) were further refined through consultations with local experts to make more detailed design adjustments; this included the option to use information from the coral reef resilience assessment to inform design improvements. The first phase resulted in moderately detailed assessments that broadly accounted for anticipated direct and indirect effects of climate change on the planned management actions. The second phase resulted in more site-specific technical assessments and additional important design details. The expert panel charged with discussing climate-smart reef restoration around Guánica used the reef resilience assessment to guide discussion of reef restoration, highlighting the importance of having such information available for adaptation planning. This study demonstrates how climate change impacts can be effectively incorporated into a management plan at the most granular level of planning and how a structured, formalized process can be as valuable as the resulting adaptation information.

Gibbs, David A. (ORCID:0000000173898569)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hawaii Play Fairway Analysis: Lanai Resistivity and Density 3D Inversion Models

To prepare for its third phase, the Hawaii Play Fairway project conducted groundwater sampling and analyses in ten locations in the Hawaiian islands, magnetotelluric (MT) and gravity surveys, as well as calculations of 3D subsurface stress due to the weight of the rock underlying the topography of the volcano. The subsurface stresses were used to evaluate the potential for fracture-induced permeability. Inversions of the MT and gravity data produce 3D models of resistivity and density, respectively, on Lanai, across Haleakala's SW rift (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea (Hawaii Island). The project developed and applied a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and potential for fracture-induced permeability into the statistical method for computing resource probability in these three focus areas. The project then incorporated the new groundwater results with the new geophysical results and the calculations of potential for fracture-induced permeability to produce updated maps of resource probability and confidence. These results were used to identify target sites for exploratory drilling. Spreadsheet information: Each sheet contains data for a particular depth in kilometers. Positive depths are above sea level, and negative below. For more information, go to the Hawaii Groundwater and Geothermal Resources Center website linked in the resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

WHOLESCALE: Coordinates of wells at San Emidio, Nevada

This dataset includes position coordinates and elevation information for wells at the WHOLESCALE San Emidio project location. Well positions in the attached file are characterized by UTM coordinates (Easting, Northing) in meters, and WHOLESCALE coordinates (Easting, Northing) relative in meters from a chosen reference point. The elevation of the top and bottom of open intervals within each well (representing locations of perforated or open-hole sections) are measured in meters (positive) above WGS84 geoid (mean sea level). The WHOLESCALE acronym stands for Water & Hole Observations Leverage Effective Stress Calculations and Lessen Expenses. The goal of the WHOLESCALE project is to simulate the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of stress in the geothermal system at San Emidio in Nevada, United States.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cape EGS: Frisco Pad Wells Flow Test Microseismic Data

This dataset contains microseismic data acquired during the Frisco pad flow test project led by Fervo Energy, conducted between July 17th - Aug 12th 2024, near the Utah FORGE geothermal site. The microseismic data was collected from various Utah FORGE wells: via Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) fiber in 16B, and two 3-component geophones located in wells 56-32 and 78B. The dataset is structured in SEGY format, where the first six traces represent data from the geophones, and the remaining traces capture DAS data from well 16B. Each SEGY file in this dataset contains triggered microseismic events, with event initiation based on Short-Time Average over Long-Time Average (STA/LTA) detection criteria during the stimulation process. Files are grouped by time intervals and named following the structure "[WellPad][WellName][Month]_[Year]Divine_Trigger[EventNumber].sgy," indicating well pad, well name, date, and event number. Sampling parameters include a spatial sampling of approximately 2 meters for DAS channels and a temporal sampling rate of 2000 Hz, with each data record spanning 1.2 seconds. The files' coordinates are referenced to the location of the FORGE 16A-32 wellhead, positioned at UTM coordinates: Easting 334641.1891 m and Northing 4263443.693 m. The geographic coordinates for this origin are 38.50402147 latitude and -112.8963897 longitude, with an elevation of 1650.0249 meters above sea level.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cape EGS: Frisco 2-P Well Stimulation Microseismic Data

This dataset contains microseismic data acquired during the Frisco 2-P well stimulation project led by Fervo Energy, conducted between June 1 and June 11, 2024, near the Utah FORGE geothermal site. The microseismic data was collected from various Utah FORGE wells: via Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) fiber in 16B, and three 3-component geophones located in wells 56-32, 78B, and 32. The dataset is structured in SEGY format, where the first nine traces represent data from the geophones, and the remaining traces capture DAS data from well 16B. Each SEGY file in this dataset contains triggered microseismic events, with event initiation based on Short-Time Average over Long-Time Average (STA/LTA) detection criteria during the stimulation process. Files are grouped by time intervals and named following the structure "[WellPad][WellName][Month]_[Year]Divine_Trigger[EventNumber].sgy," indicating well pad, well name, date, and event number. Sampling parameters include a spatial sampling of approximately 2 meters for DAS channels and a temporal sampling rate of 2000 Hz, with each data record spanning 1.2 seconds. The files' coordinates are referenced to the location of the FORGE 16A-32 wellhead, positioned at UTM coordinates: Easting 334641.1891 m and Northing 4263443.693 m. The geographic coordinates for this origin are 38.50402147 latitude and -112.8963897 longitude, with an elevation of 1650.0249 meters above sea level.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeled Hourly Tidal Current Velocities, Directions, and Heights from May 1 - September 1, 2005 at Two Points Near East Forelands and Tyonek in Cook Inlet, Alaska

This dataset includes modeled tidal current velocities, direction and depth at two locations in East and North Forelands (60.716, -151.434 and 61.024, -151.157) near Nikiski and Tyonek, respectively, in Cook Inlet, Alaska. Data from two grid cells were provided by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory based on a tidal hydrodynamic model that characterized the tidal stream resources in Cook Inlet for a period from May 1 to September 1, 2005 (Wang and Yang 2020). The model grid size had a horizontal spatial resolution of 100 m at East Forelands and 200 m at Tyonek; mean sea level (MSL) depth was 47.9 m and 23.7 m at each respective site, and there were 10 depth bins that ranged in size with the tide from 4.3-5.2 m and 1.9-2.8 m, respectively (Wang and Yang 2020).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

CalWave - Open Water Demonstration - System and Component Overview Content Models and Drawings

Data for the CalWave - Open Water Demonstration, a submerged pressure differential Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Device. Device is moored to the seabed, and the motion of the waves causes the sea level to rise and fall above the device, inducing a pressure differential in the device. The alternating pressure pumps fluid through a system to generate electricity, which is transmitted to shore via bidirectional cables. Documentation and data here includes: System Overview Content Model and Drawings as well as Component Overview Content Model and Drawings.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

CalWave - Open Water Demonstration - LCOE Content Model

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

CalWave - Open Water Demonstration - Field Testing Content Models (10/21 - 7/22)

Data for the CalWave - Open Water Demonstration, a submerged pressure differential Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Device. Device is moored to the seabed, and the motion of the waves causes the sea level to rise and fall above the device, inducing a pressure differential in the device. The alternating pressure pumps fluid through a system to generate electricity, which is transmitted to shore via bidirectional cables. Documentation and data here includes: Open Water Demonstration, including field testing content models for nearly 10 months of continuous ocean operation, from October 2021 through July 2022.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗