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NASA NTRS2002

Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Seasonal Weather Prediction

The potential role of soil moisture initialization in seasonal forecasting is illustrated through ensembles of simulations with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) model. For each boreal summer during 1997-2001, we generated two 16-member ensembles of 3-month simulations. The first, "AMIP-style" ensemble establishes the degree to which a perfect prediction of SSTs would contribute to the seasonal prediction of precipitation and temperature over continents. The second ensemble is identical to the first, except that the land surface is also initialized with "realistic" soil moisture contents through the continuous prior application (within GCM simulations leading up to the start of the forecast period) of a daily observational precipitation data set and the associated avoidance of model drift through the scaling of all surface prognostic variables. A comparison of the two ensembles shows that soil moisture initialization has a statistically significant impact on summertime precipitation and temperature over only a handful of continental regions. These regions agree, to first order, with regions that satisfy three conditions: (1) a tendency toward large initial soil moisture anomalies, (2) a strong sensitivity of evaporation to soil moisture, and (3) a strong sensitivity of precipitation to evaporation. The degree to which the initialization improves forecasts relative to observations is mixed, reflecting a critical need for the continued development of model parameterizations and data analysis strategies.

Koster, Randal D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Martian Global-scale Seasonal CO2 Change: Comparison of Geodetic Observations and Numerical Simulations

The Martian atmosphere exhibits an annual cycle in the CO2 concentration; as much as 30% of the atmosphere takes part in seasonal exchange of mass between the atmosphere and the seasonal polar caps. The signature of this global-scale annual cycle can be found in the variation of gravitational field. This information can be used to estimate the global scale seasonal mass and atmospheric pressure variations. With recent Mars Global Surveyor mission, global scale CO2 change in polar caps has been estimated by several authors. Although similar geodetic data are used, the results vary due to the differences in the approximations made. In the present study, these approaches are discussed and the polar mass changes are estimated. The results are compared with the values given by two Martian Global Circulation Models (GCM) as well as observations.

O Karatekin↗
NASA NTRS2003

A One Billion Year Martian Climate Model: The Importance of Seasonally Resolved Polar Caps and the Role of Wind

Wind deflation and deposition are powerful agents of surface change in the present Mars climate regime. Recent studies indicate that, while the distribution of regions of potential deflation (or erosion) and deposition is remarkably insensitive to changes in orbital parameters (obliquity, timing of perihelion passage, etc.), rates of aeolian surface modification may be highly sensitive to these parameters even if the atmospheric mass remains constant. But previous work suggested the atmospheric mass is likely to be sensitive to obliquity, especially if a significant mass of carbon dioxide can be stored in the regolith or deposited in the form of massive polar caps. Deflation and erosion are highly sensitive to surface pressure, so feedback between orbit variations and surface pressure can greatly enhance the sensitivity of aeolian modification rates to orbital parameters. We used statistics derived from a 1 Gyr orbital integration of the spin axis of Mars, coupled with 3D general circulation models (GCMs) at a variety of orbital conditions and pressures, to explore this feedback. We also employed a seasonally resolved 1D energy balance model to illuminate the gross characteristics of the longterm atmospheric evolution, wind erosion and deposition over one billion years. We find that seasonal polar cycles have a critical influence on the ability for the regolith to release CO2 at high obliquities, and find that the atmospheric CO2 actually decreases at high obliquities due to the cooling effect of polar deposits at latitudes where seasonal caps form. At low obliquity, the formation of massive, permanent polar caps depends critically on the values of the frost albedo, A(sub frost), and frost emissivity, E(sub frost). Using our 1D model with values of A(sub frost) = 0.67 and E(sub frost) = 0.55, matched to the NASA Ames GCM results, we find that permanent caps only form at low obliquities (< 10 degrees). Thus, contrary to expectations, the Martian atmospheric pressure is remarkable static over time, and decreases both at high and low obliquity. Also, from our one billion year orbital model, we present new results on the fraction of time Mars is expected to experience periods of high and low obliquity. Finally, using GCM runs at a variety of pressures, we examine the likely role of wind erosion under an early more massive Martian atmosphere.

J C Armstrong↗
NASA NTRS2003

Constraints on the Within Season and Between Year Variability of the North Residual Cap from MGS-TES

There is a long history of telescopic and spacecraft observations of the polar regions of Mars. The finely laminated ice deposits and surrounding layered terrains are commonly thought to contain a record of past climate conditions and change. Understanding the basic nature of the deposits and their mineral and ice constituents is a continued focus of current and future orbited missions. Unresolved issues in Martian polar science include a) the unusual nature of the CO2 ice deposits ("Swiss Cheese", "slab ice" etc.) b) the relationship of the ice deposits to underlying layered units (which differs from the north to the south), c) understanding the seasonal variations and their connections to the finely laminated units observed in high-resolution images and d) the relationship of dark materials in the wind-swept lanes and reentrant valleys to the surrounding dark dune and surface materials. Our work focuses on understanding these issues in relationship to the north residual ice cap. Recent work using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data sets have described evolution of the seasonal CO2 frost deposits. In addition, the north polar residual ice cap exhibits albedo variations between Mars years and within the summer season. The Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data set can augment these observations providing additional constraints such as temperature evolution and spectral properties associated with ice and rocky materials. Exploration of these properties is the subject of our current study.

Calvin, W. M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Interannual and Seasonal Variability of Biomass Burning Emissions Constrained by Satellite Observations

We present a methodology for estimating the seasonal and interannual variation of biomass burning designed for use in global chemical transport models. The average seasonal variation is estimated from 4 years of fire-count data from the Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) and 1-2 years of similar data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) World Fire Atlases. We use the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AI) data product as a surrogate to estimate interannual variability in biomass burning for six regions: Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Malaysia, Brazil, Central America and Mexico, Canada and Alaska, and Asiatic Russia. The AI data set is available from 1979 to the present with an interruption in satellite observations from mid-1993 to mid-1996; this data gap is filled where possible with estimates of area burned from the literature for different regions. Between August 1996 and July 2000, the ATSR fire-counts are used to provide specific locations of emissions and a record of interannual variability throughout the world. We use our methodology to estimate mean seasonal and interannual variations for emissions of carbon monoxide from biomass burning, and we find that no trend is apparent in these emissions over the last two decades, but that there is significant interannual variability.

Duncan, Bryan N.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability and Land Surface Processes

Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of land-atmosphere feedback in the observational record, suggestions that soil moisture can affect precipitation over seasonal timescales and across certain large continental areas. The strength of this observed feedback in nature is not large but is still significant enough to be potentially useful, e.g., for forecasts. This talk will address all of these issues. It will begin with a brief overview of land surface modeling in atmospheric models but will then focus on recent research - using both observations and models - into the impact of land surface processes on variability in the climate system.

Koster, Randal↗
NASA NTRS2005

Seasonal Redistribution of Water in the Surficial Martian Regolith: Results of the HEND Data Analysis

The global mapping of the neutrons emission from the Mars, conducted recently by HEND instrument (Mars Odyssey), has shown that the surface layer (1-2 m) on the high latitudes of the planet (up to 50 ) is very reached by water ice with abundance more 50% by mass [1,2,3 ]. It was also shown that water ice distribution in surficial layer of the northern and the southern sub-polar regions is notably different [4]. Until today the existing HEND data already covers the period more then one the Martian year. This let to study the seasonal effects of volatiles redistribution associated with processes of sublimation and condensation of the seasonal polar caps and water exchange between the surface regolith and atmosphere. The goal of our work was to analyze the dynamic of the globally mapped neutrons flux as key to understanding of the seasonal redistribution of the water ice in the surface layer. For this we analyzed the globally mapped flux of the neutrons with different energy and corresponding effective layer of their emission.

Kuzmin, R. O.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Seasonal And Regional Differentiation Of Bio-Optical Properties Within The North Polar Atlantic

Using data collected during spring and summer seasons in the north polar Atlantic we examined the variability of the spectral absorption, a(lambda), and backscattering, b(sub b)(lambda), coefficients of surface waters and its relation to phytoplankton pigment concentration and composition. For a given chlorophyll a concentration (TChla), the concentrations of photosynthetic carotenoids (PSC), photoprotective carotenoids (PPC), and total accessory pigments (AP) were consistently lower in spring than in summer. The chlorophyll-specific absorption coefficients of phytoplankton and total particulate matter were also lower in spring, which can be partly attributed to lower proportions of PPC, PSC, and AP in spring. The spring values of the green-to-blue band ratio of the absorption coefficient were higher than the summer ratios. The blue-to-green ratios of backscattering coefficient were also higher in spring. The higher b(sub b) values and lower blue-to-green b(sub b) ratios in summer were likely associated with higher concentrations of detrital particles in summer compared to spring. Because the product of the green-to-blue absorption ratio and the blue-to-green backscattering ratio is a proxy for the blue-to-green ratio of remote-sensing reflectance, we conclude that the performance of ocean color band-ratio algorithms for estimating pigments in the north polar Atlantic is significantly affected by seasonal shifts in the relationships between absorption and TChla as well as between backscattering and TChla. Intriguingly, however, fairly good estimate of the particulate beam attenuation coefficient at 660 nm (potential measure of total particulate matter or particulate organic carbon concentration) can be obtained by applying a single blue-to-green band-ratio algorithm for both spring and summer seasons.

Stramska, Malgorzata↗
NASA NTRS2006

Interannual and Seasonal Variability of the Tropopause Layer over the Tropical Americas

This study explores the thermodynamic and convective characteristics of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) over the Tropical Americas using multi-platform measurements collected during the last five years. This region is chosen for the following reasons: (i) it becomes the second most dominant source of air to the TTL, (ii) it exhibits the largest seasonal increase in percent contribution to stratospheric moisture, (iii) it has the warmest tropical tropopause temperatures, and (iv) it can be influenced by midlatitude and subtropical air masses that are transported equatorward by the upper-level circulation associated with the North American Monsoon. We examine the interannual and seasonal variability of water vapor, ozone, and temperature using aircraft data collected aboard the WB-57, satellite data from the Aura-MLS and Aqua-AIRS instruments, and GPS radio occultation measurements from the CHAMP satellite. We also examine the vertical extent and frequency of convection in the region using data from TRMM. In addition, we perform seasonal trajectory calculations to elucidate the origin and fate of air masses found in our region of interest.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Modulation of the seasonal cycle in length-of-day and atmospheric angular momentum

Global warming, by definition, changes the atmospheric temperature field. This temperature change is not expected to be uniform, either geographically, or with height in the atmosphere. By the thermal wind equation. changes in the pole-to-equator temperature gradient will cause changes in the atmospheric zonal winds. Numerous previous studies have shown that observed length-of-day (LOD) variations on time scales of a few days to a few years are largely caused by atmospheric zonal wind fluctuations. In particular, seasonal variations in LOD have been previously shown to be dominantly caused by seasonal variations in the atmospheric zonal winds. Here, observed changes in the strength of seasonal LOD and wind-driven atmospheric angular momentum signals during 1962 to 2000 are analyzed and shown to be significantly correlated with each other and with the Southern Oscillation Index.

length of day↗
NASA NTRS2007

Characterization of Polar Stratospheric Clouds With Spaceborne Lidar: CALIPSO and the 2006 Antarctic Season

The role of polar stratospheric clouds in polar ozone loss has been well documented. The CALIPSO satellite mission offers a new opportunity to characterize PSCs on spatial and temporal scales previously unavailable. A PSC detection algorithm based on a single wavelength threshold approach has been developed for CALIPSO. The method appears to accurately detect PSCs of all opacities, including tenuous clouds, with a very low rate of false positives and few missed clouds. We applied the algorithm to CALIPSO data acquired during the 2006 Antarctic winter season from 13 June through 31 October. The spatial and temporal distribution of CALIPSO PSC observations is illustrated with weekly maps of PSC occurrence. The evolution of the 2006 PSC season is depicted by time series of daily PSC frequency as a function of altitude. Comparisons with virtual solar occultation data indicate that CALIPSO provides a different view of the PSC season than attained with previous solar occultation satellites. Measurement-based time series of PSC areal coverage and vertically-integrated PSC volume are computed from the CALIPSO data. The observed area covered with PSCs is significantly smaller than would be inferred from a temperature-based proxy such as TNAT but is similar in magnitude to that inferred from TSTS. The potential of CALIPSO measurements for investigating PSC microphysics is illustrated using combinations of lidar backscatter coefficient and volume depolarization to infer composition for two CALIPSO PSC scenes.

Pitts, Michael C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Observed Seasonal to Decadal-Scale Responses in Mesospheric Water Vapor

The 14-yr (1991-2005) time series of mesospheric water vapor from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques for their6 seasonal and longer-period terms from 45S to 45N. The distribution of annual average water vapor shows a decrease from a maximum of 6.5 ppmv at 0.2 hPa to about 3.2 ppmv at 0.01 hPa, in accord with the effects of the photolysis of water vapor due to the Lyman-flux. The distribution of the semi-annual cycle amplitudes is nearly hemispherically symmetric at the low latitudes, while that of the annual cycles show larger amplitudes in the northern hemisphere. The diagnosed 11-yr, or solar cycle, max minus min, water vapor values are of the order of several percent at 0.2 hPa to about 23% at 0.01 hPa. The solar cycle terms have larger values in the northern than in the southern hemisphere, particularly in the middle mesosphere, and the associated linear trend terms are anomalously large in the same region. Those anomalies are due, at least in part, to the fact that the amplitudes of the seasonal cycles were varying at northern mid latitudes during 1991-2005, while the corresponding seasonal terms of the MLR model do not allow for that possibility. Although the 11-yr variation in water vapor is essentially hemispherically-symmetric and anti-phased with the solar cycle flux near 0.01 hPa, the concurrent temperature variations produce slightly colder conditions at the northern high latitudes at solar minimum. It is concluded that this temperature difference is most likely the reason for the greater occurrence of polar mesospheric clouds at the northern versus the southern high latitudes at solar minimum during the HALOE time period.

Remsberg, Ellis↗
NASA NTRS2011

Mars Seasonal Polar Caps as a Test of the Equivalence Principle

The seasonal polar caps of Mars can be used to test the equivalence principle in general relativity. The north and south caps, which are composed of carbon dioxide, wax and wane with the seasons. If the ratio of the inertial to gravitational masses of the caps differs from the same ratio for the rest of Mars, then the equivalence principle fails, Newton's third law fails, and the caps will pull Mars one way and then the other with a force aligned with the planet's spin axis. This leads to a secular change in Mars's along-track position in its orbit about the Sun, and to a secular change in the orbit's semimajor axis. The caps are a poor E6tv6s test of the equivalence principle, being 4 orders-of-magnitude weaker than laboratory tests and 7 orders-of-magnitude weaker than that found by lunar laser ranging; the reason is the small mass of the caps compared to Mars as a whole. The principal virtue of using Mars is that the caps contain carbon, an element not normally considered in such experiments. The Earth with its seasonal snow cover can also be used for a similar test.

Rubincam, Daivd Parry↗
NASA NTRS2007

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting warm season convection over East-Central Florida. The Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Besides model core and initialization options, the WRF model can be run with one- or two-way nesting. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. This project assessed three different model intializations available to determine which configuration best predicts warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. The project also examined the use of one- and two-way nesting in predicting warm season convection.

Watson, Leela R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Forecasting Cool Season Daily Peak Winds at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and 6) strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft. The forecast tool was developed as a graphical user interface with Microsoft Excel to help the forecaster enter the variables, and run the appropriate regression equations. Based on the forecaster's input and regression equations, a forecast of the day's peak and average wind is generated and displayed. The application also outputs the probability that the peak wind speed will be ^ 35 kt, 50 kt, and 60 kt.

Barrett, Joe, III↗
NASA NTRS2012

Coupling Mars' Dust and Water Cycles: Effects on Dust Lifting Vigor, Spatial Extent and Seasonality

The dust cycle is an important component of Mars' current climate system. Airborne dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, thus greatly influencing the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Dust raising events on Mars occur at spatial scales ranging from meters to planet-wide. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. Generally, a low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading were observed by MGS/TES: one peak occurred before northern winter solstice at Ls 200-240, and one peak occurred after northern winter solstice at L(sub s) 305-340. These maxima in dust loading are thought to be associated with transient eddy activity in the northern hemisphere, which has been observed to maximize pre- and post-solstice. Interactive dust cycle studies with Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) have included the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Although the predicted global dust loadings from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are marked differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. Most notably, the maximum dust loading is robustly predicted by models to occur near northern winter solstice and is due to dust lifting associated with down slope flows on the flanks of the Hellas basin. Thus far, models have had difficulty simulating the observed pre- and post- solstice peaks in dust loading. Interactive dust cycle studies typically have not included the formation of water ice clouds or their radiative effects. Water ice clouds can influence the dust cycle by scavenging dust from atmosphere and by interacting with solar and infrared radiation, thereby modifying the thermal structure of the atmosphere and its circulation. Results presented in other papers at this workshop show that including the radiative effects of water ice clouds greatly influence the water cycle and the vigor of weather systems in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Our goal is to investigate the effects of fully coupling the dust and water cycles on the dust cycle. We show that including water ice clouds and their radiative effects greatly affect the magnitude, spatial extent and seasonality of dust lifting and the season of maximum atmospheric dust loading.

Kahre, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Closing the Seasonal Ocean Surface Temperature Balance in the Eastern Tropical Oceans from Remote Sensing and Model Reanalyses

Residual forcing necessary to close the MLTB on seasonal time scales are largest in regions of strongest surface heat flux forcing. Identifying the dominant source of error - surface heat flux error, mixed layer depth estimation, ocean dynamical forcing - remains a challenge in the eastern tropical oceans where ocean processes are very active. Improved sub-surface observations are necessary to better constrain errors. 1. Mixed layer depth evolution is critical to the seasonal evolution of mixed layer temperatures. It determines the inertia of the mixed layer, and scales the sensitivity of the MLTB to errors in surface heat flux and ocean dynamical forcing. This role produces timing impacts for errors in SST prediction. 2. Errors in the MLTB are larger than the historical 10Wm-2 target accuracy. In some regions, a larger accuracy can be tolerated if the goal is to resolve the seasonal SST cycle.

Roberts, J. Brent↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating NMME Seasonal Forecast Skill for use in NASA SERVIR Hub Regions

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The coupled forecasts have numerous potential applications, both national and international in scope. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in driving applications models in hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush- Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. A prerequisite for seasonal forecast use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture) is bias correction and skill assessment. Efforts to address systematic biases and multi-model combination in support of NASA SERVIR impact modeling requirements will be highlighted. Specifically, quantilequantile mapping for bias correction has been implemented for all archived NMME hindcasts. Both deterministic and probabilistic skill estimates for raw, bias-corrected, and multi-model ensemble forecasts as a function of forecast lead will be presented for temperature and precipitation. Complementing this statistical assessment will be case studies of significant events, for example, the ability of the NMME forecasts suite to anticipate the 2010/2011 drought in the Horn of Africa and its relationship to evolving SST patterns.

Roberts, J. Brent↗