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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Physics and chemistry from parsimonious representations: image analysis via invariant variational autoencoders

Electron, optical, and scanning probe microscopy methods are generating ever increasing volume of image data containing information on atomic and mesoscale structures and functionalities. This necessitates the development of the machine learning methods for discovery of physical and chemical phenomena from the data, such as manifestations of symmetry breaking phenomena in electron and scanning tunneling microscopy images, or variability of the nanoparticles. Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are emerging as a powerful paradigm for the unsupervised data analysis, allowing to disentangle the factors of variability and discover optimal parsimonious representation. Here, we summarize recent developments in VAEs, covering the basic principles and intuition behind the VAEs. The invariant VAEs are introduced as an approach to accommodate scale and translation invariances present in imaging data and separate known factors of variations from the ones to be discovered. We further describe the opportunities enabled by the control over VAE architecture, including conditional, semi-supervised, and joint VAEs. Several case studies of VAE applications for toy models and experimental datasets in Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy are discussed, emphasizing the deep connection between VAE and basic physical principles. Python codes and datasets discussed in this article are available at https://github.com/saimani5/VAE-tutorials and can be used by researchers as an application guide when applying these to their own datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Systematic observations of enhanced oil recovery and associated changes at carbonate-brine and carbonate-petroleum interfaces

Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) from carbonates is obtained by injection of controlled ionic strength brines containing “active ions” (e.g., SO 4 2- , Mg 2+ , Ca 2+ ). It is generally believed that this occurs through the interaction of the active ions at the carbonate-brine interface (e.g., within a thin brine layer separating the petroleum and the carbonate phases). Here, in-situ observations show how one active ion, SO 4 2- , alters behavior at the carbonate-petroleum interface. Displacement of petroleum from initially oil-wet carbonate rocks using brines with variable SO 4 concentrations systematically changes oil recovery, in situ contact angles, and connectivity of the oil phase, confirming that the active ion alters interactions at the oil/brine/carbonate interface, as expected. Measurements of model calcite-fluid interfaces show that there is no measurable sorption of SO 4 to carbonate-brine interfaces but reveals that the carbonate-petroleum interface is altered by previous exposure to SO 4 -containing brines. These results suggest that EOR in carbonates is controlled indirectly by active ions. We propose that this may be due to a reduced oleophilicity of the carbonate caused by chemical complexation between the active ion and petroleum’s acidic and basic functional groups. This mechanism explains how both anions and cations act as active ions for EOR in carbonates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Day-to-day reliability of basal heart rate and short-term and ultra short-term heart rate variability assessment by the Equivital eq02+ LifeMonitor in US Army soldiers

Introduction The present study determined the (1) day-to-day reliability of basal heart rate (HR) and HR variability (HRV) measured by the Equivital eq02+ LifeMonitor and (2) agreement of ultra short-term HRV compared with short-term HRV. Methods Twenty-three active-duty US Army Soldiers (5 females, 18 males) completed two experimental visits separated by >48 hours with restrictions consistent with basal monitoring (eg, exercise, dietary), with measurements after supine rest at minutes 20–21 (ultra short-term) and minutes 20–25 (short-term). HRV was assessed as the SD of R–R intervals (SDNN) and the square root of the mean squared differences between consecutive R–R intervals (RMSSD). Results The day-to-day reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC)) using linear-mixed model approach was good for HR (0.849, 95% CI: 0.689 to 0.933) and RMSSD (ICC: 0.823, 95% CI: 0.623 to 0.920). SDNN had moderate day-to-day reliability with greater variation (ICC: 0.689, 95% CI: 0.428 to 0.858). The reliability of RMSSD was slightly improved when considering the effect of respiration (ICC: 0.821, 95% CI: 0.672 to 0.944). There was no bias for HR measured for 1 min versus 5 min (p=0.511). For 1 min measurements versus 5 min, there was a very modest mean bias of −4 ms for SDNN and −1 ms for RMSSD (p≤0.023). Conclusion When preceded by a 20 min stabilisation period using restrictions consistent with basal monitoring and measuring respiration, military personnel can rely on the eq02+ for basal HR and RMSSD monitoring but should be more cautious using SDNN. These data also support using ultra short-term measurements when following these procedures.

General & Internal Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2023

MFiX: Fractional-Step Method Implementation

A comprehensive, multiphase computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation solves several coupled transport equations including continuity, momentum, species, and energy. Chemical reactions further couple these equations through heats of reaction and rates of formation of products and rates of destruction of reactants. A fractional-step method separates changes attributed to chemical reactions from transport phenomena like convection and diffusion. When the governing equations are split into the transport and reacting components, efficient and independent methodologies can be exploited to solve the different systems. Specifically, discretization of field variable transport equations results in large, sparse matrices which are loosely coupled. These systems are solved in succession using iterative techniques that take advantage of the matrix structure. In contrast, chemical reactions tightly couple field variables locally within the domain (e.g., within a single computational cell) resulting in low dimensional but dense, nonlinear systems that are better solved using direct integration techniques.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Salt Vessel-Sample Generator Interface

The goal of the salt sampling program at Argonne is to develop and deploy automated molten salt sampling approaches for interfacing relevant unit operations with salt analysis to improve the timeliness and accuracy of sampling-based accountancy measurements. One technology under development is a vacuum sampler loop module. In this system, molten salt is drawn from a process vessel through a heated sampling line and into a charge vessel. Next, one or more samples are split from the volume in the charge vessel and the remaining salt is returned to the process. The vacuum sampler loop module is being developed to interface with other sample processing and analysis modules to enable rapid at-line sample characterization. The main purpose of the vacuum sampling loop module is to enable the collection of samples that are more representative of the bulk salt by replacing traditional point samplers (i.e., dip probes) with a sampling approach that captures a larger cross section of salt. Additionally, the vacuum sampling approach eliminates the risk of dross contamination of samples and avoids the use of moving parts in the salt. Two methods of interfacing the vacuum sampling loop with a precision pneumatic sample generator were investigated in FY21. This report covers the testing of fluidic coupling between the two modules. Two iterations of the fluidically coupled modules were tested. The first iteration system coupled the two modules using a freeze valve to seal the vacuum sampler during filling and to control flow into the pneumatic sample generator. While this integrated system functioned as intended, some changes were implemented to make the system more robust and better suited to remote deployment. Specifically, the system was made to be more modular and active control of the vacuum filling operation was replaced with a passive control mechanism. For passive filling, the salt charge vessel was vented to a small gas tank that was at negative pressure, causing salt to be drawn into the vessel until the force of the fluid head was in equilibrium with the gas pressure. The passive control system performed well and will be used in future iterations. Another change in the second system was a newly configured pneumatic sample generator in which sample ejection occurred through a hole in the reservoir’s stainless-steel side wall instead of through a non-wetted sapphire orifice on the bottom. This alternate configuration may be better suited for near-process deployment because it enables on-line orifice maintenance and an orifice bypass drain back to the process. A third change in the second iteration system was the transition to a two-chamber charge vessel which split off a fraction of the sampled salt as a liquid aliquot. The goal was to create a buffer mechanism that would allow reproducible aliquoting of samples, independently of variability in the charge vessel fill height. While the two-chamber design was functional, the sample size reproducibility was below target values. To improve reproducibility and overcome many of the impediments to remote deployment of the vacuum sampling loop module, separate work was conducted to replace the two-chamber liquid aliquoting mechanism with aliquoting into single-use sample tubes. Solid salt transfer in the sample tubes will replace fluidic coupling for integrating the vacuum sampler with downstream modules. Because the proposed operations can all be executed with simple overhead actuation mechanisms or other existing hot-cell technology, there will be no need for large investments in novel hot cell sample handling technologies using this alternate approach. As such, near-term deployment of the vacuum sampling technology will be achievable. This new approach for automated coupling of sample tubes with down-stream modules is covered in a separate FY21 report, and a remotely operated version of the vacuum sampler loop module with the tube aliquoting feature is planned for FY22.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

WIPP Safety Significant Confinement Ventilation System (SSCVS) HEPA Filtration System - 20165

Construction and major equipment fabrication are underway for a new ventilation exhaust system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The new system will provide continuous High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filtration of the exhaust from the WIPP underground while meeting the ventilation demands for expanded waste emplacement and mining operations over the next 40 years. The integrated system design provides for reducing the salt, clay and diesel particulates from the exhaust airflow from the mine, prior to full filtration using Nuclear Safety Significant HEPA filters. The SSCVS design and equipment provides for continuous HEPA filtration over a wide range of operating and environmental conditions. The new exhaust system connects to the existing underground exhaust shaft, and the exhaust air flows from the underground through Salt Reduction Units (SRUs) to protect the final filter banks from excessive moisture and rapid salt/dust buildup. Each of the six (6) SRUs consists of a demister to remove entrained moisture, a dry salt remover unit to filter approximately 90% of the entrained salt/dust, and an automated water treatment system to periodically clean the demisters and to remove salt from the SRU filters. At the maximum expected exhaust flowrate of 540,000 Cubic Feet per Minute (CFM) / 255 Cubic Meters per Second (m{sup 3}/s), five (5) salt removal units will be in operation with one unit in standby or maintenance. An in-line variable frequency drive booster fan will offset pressure losses through each SRU and reduce the relative humidity of the air exiting the SRUs. In the event of a high radiation alarm from the underground Continuous Air Monitors (CAMs), the SRUs will be automatically bypassed, which places the SRS and building outside of the Safety Significant confinement boundary. From the SRUs, the exhaust is directed to the HEPA filter banks located in the New Filter Building. The exhaust system is designed to provide continuous HEPA filtration prior to release to the exhaust stack. There are 22 HEPA filter banks rated at 27,000 CFM / 12.75 m{sup 3}/s each. Each filter bank has two stages of pre-filters and two stages of HEPA filters. The filtered air from each of the 22 filter banks discharges into a common concrete plenum, which is maintained under a negative pressure by the main exhaust fans. Six 1,000 HP variable frequency drive exhaust fans are provided on the south side of the plenum. At the maximum expected exhaust flow of 540,000 CFM, four exhaust fans and twenty filter banks will be in operation. The fans discharge vertically to a separate concrete exhaust plenum. The filtered exhaust is routed from the exhaust plenum to a 125-foot-tall exhaust stack via a 13-foot diameter duct. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

SODAs: sparse optimization for the discovery of differential and algebraic equations

Differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) integrate ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with algebraic constraints, providing a fundamental framework for developing models of dynamical systems characterized by time-scale separation, conservation laws and physical constraints. While sparse optimization has revolutionized model development by allowing data-driven discovery of parsimonious models from a library of possible equations, existing approaches for dynamical systems assume DAEs can be reduced to ODEs by eliminating variables before model discovery. This assumption limits the applicability of such methods for DAE systems with unknown constraints and time scales. We introduce sparse optimization for differential-algebraic systems (SODAs), a data-driven method for the identification of DAEs in their explicit form. By discovering the algebraic and dynamic components sequentially without prior identification of the algebraic variables, this approach leads to a sequence of convex optimization problems. It has the advantage of discovering interpretable models that preserve the structure of the underlying physical system. To this end, SODAs improves since SODAs is singular numerical stability when handling high correlations between library terms, caused by near-perfect algebraic relationships, by iteratively refining the conditioning of the candidate library. We demonstrate the performance of our method on biological, mechanical and electrical systems, showcasing its robustness to noise in both simulated time series and real-time experimental data.

DAE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fluid-driven fractures in granular media: Insights from numerical investigations

We investigate the mechanisms of opening-mode fracture initiation in granular media. The study is based on a simulation of grain-scale fluid-grain interactions through a coupled numerical approach in which the discrete element method is used to solve for the mechanics of a solid granular medium, and computational fluid dynamics is used to model fluid flow and drag forces. In this work, we present benchmark problems with analytical solutions and validate this numerical model against experiments on a viscous-drag-driven cavity in the literature. Additional simulation results show fracture initiation mechanisms in a random granular packing subjected to constant boundary stresses and to fluid injection with a localized source. The dimensionless variable $F_s/F_{sk}$ (ratio of seepage force $F_s$ and skeletal force $F_{sk}$) incorporates the impacts of physical properties and injection parameters including fluid viscosity, injection velocity, grain size, and effective stresses, and it has been used as a criterion separating regimes of fluid invasion and drag-driven fracture opening. Our simulation results show that $F_s/F_{sk}$ in combination with $τ_1$ (ratio of diffusion time from hydromechanical coupling and injection time) serves as a prediction of fracture opening within granular packing. We suggest a simple criterion ($F_s/F_{sk}$ > 1 or $τ_1$ > 0.17) that is valid for various types of granular media and injection conditions to determine if fracture opening will occur. Among other applications, this study is useful to predict the initiation and propagation of fractures in natural sediments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intrinsic and extrinsic factors interact during development to influence telomere length in a long‐lived reptile

Abstract The mechanisms connecting environmental conditions to plasticity in biological aging trajectories are fundamental to understanding individual variation in functional traits and life history. Recent findings suggest that telomere biology is especially dynamic during early life stages and has long‐term consequences for subsequent reproduction and survival. However, our current understanding is mostly derived from studies investigating ecological and anthropogenic factors separately, leaving the effects of complex environmental interactions unresolved. American alligators ( Alligator mississippiensis ) are long‐lived apex predators that rely on incubation temperature during a discrete period during development and endocrine cues to determine sex, making them especially vulnerable to current climatic variability and exposure to anthropogenic contaminants interfering with hormone function. Here, we combine field studies with a factorial design to understand how the developmental environment, along with intrinsic biological variation contribute to persistent telomere variation. We found that exposure to a common endocrine disrupting contaminant, DDE, affects telomere length, but that the directionality is highly dependent upon incubation temperature. Variation in hatchling growth, underlies a strong clutch effect. We also assess concentrations of a panel of glucocorticoid hormones and find that contaminant exposure elicits an increase in circulating glucocorticoids. Consistent with emerging evidence linking stress and aging trajectories, GC levels also appear to trend with shorter telomere length. Thus, we add support for a mechanistic link between contaminants and glucocorticoid signalling, which interacts with ecological aspects of the developmental environment to alter telomere dynamics.

Bae, Junsoo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advancing Chemical Separations: Unraveling the Structure and Dynamics of Phase Splitting in Liquid–Liquid Extraction

Liquid-liquid extraction (LLE), the go-to process for a variety of chemical separations, is limited by spontaneous organic phase splitting upon sufficient solute loading, called third phase formation. In this study we explore the applicability of critical phenomena theory to gain insight into this deleterious phase behavior with the goal of improving separations efficiency and minimizing waste. Here, a series of samples representative of rare earth purification were constructed to include each of one light and one heavy lanthanide (cerium and lutetium) paired with one of two common malonamide extractants (DMDOHEMA and DMDBTDMA). The resulting postextraction organic phases are chemically complex and often form rich hierarchical structures whose statics and dynamics near the critical point were probed herein with small-angle X-ray scattering and high-speed X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy. Despite their different extraction behaviors, all samples show remarkably similar critical behavior with exponents well described by classical critical point theory consistent with the 3D Ising model, where the critical behavior is characterized by fluctuations with a single diverging length scale. This unexpected result indicates a significant reduction in relevant chemical parameters at the critical point, indicating that the underlying behavior of phase transitions in LLE rely on far fewer variables than are generally assumed. The obtained scalar order parameter is attributed to the extractant fraction of the extractant/diluent mixture, revealing that other solution components and their respective concentrations simply shift the critical temperature but do not affect the nature of the critical fluctuations. These findings point to an opportunity to drastically simplify studies of liquid-liquid phase separation and phase diagram development in general while providing insights into LLE process improvement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evolution of microstructures in radiation fields using a coupled binary-collision Monte Carlo phase field approach

The simulation of radiation effects in materials broadly falls into two categories. At short time and length scales lies the modeling of primary radiation damage, such as point defect creation, energy deposition, and ballistic mixing. This is followed by the modeling at longer time scales of thermally activated microstructure evolution and defect reactions, such as recombination, clustering, and coarsening. The binary collision Monte Carlo method is an established, numerically efficient method for the computation of primary radiation damage. Conversely, the phase field method is a state of the art method for microstructure evolution on longer time and length scales. Here we present a concurrent coupling of these two methods, overcoming the difference between the discrete object Monte Carlo paradigm for primary radiation damage and the continuum field variable approach for microstructure evolution. The coupling is bidirectional, in which the microstructure evolution in the MOOSE finite element frame- work provides the spatial scattering data set for the charged particle trans- port and receives point defect, mass transport, and heat source terms from the simulated collision cascades that contribute to the field variable evolution. The concurrent coupling scheme is implemented in the code Magpie and demonstrated by investigating patterning for a model irradiated immiscible binary alloy. The results from the coupled binary collision Monte Carlo/phase field simulations reproduce the results of analytical models for phase separation, phase mixing, and patterning, supporting the approach and indicating its utility for modeling real materials systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Analysis of the Limiting Dynamics of Two dimensional Boussinesq Turbulent Systems

In the current study, we investigate rotational and stratified turbulent systems within the framework of the Boussinesq equations. The effects of rotation and stratification give rise to a variety of dynamical regimes in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. To develop a better understanding of the fundamental flow properties through a more straightforward mathematical framework, we commence our research with a simplified two-dimensional Boussinesq model that incorporates rotation and stratification effects. We explore two distinct limiting dynamics, considering pure rotation and pure stratification separately. We examine these intriguing dynamics through numerical investigations, applying the exact solution theory of Boussinesq equations and examining small-scale perturbations to the exact solution under rotation and stratification. We conduct an analysis of statistical quantities associated with the turbulent state variables. The results indicate that, under weak rotation at the equilibrium statistical state, the flow field exhibits vortex flow. However, strong rotation transforms the flow into vertical shear flow. We observe both downscale and upscale energy transfers with a decay rate of k −3 in the absence of external forcing and dissipation. Furthermore, we delve into the study of internal gravity wave mode interactions in the simplified two-dimensional Boussinesq system, which is a crucial aspect of geophysical turbulence due to gravity. Our findings reveal that the time series of the mode coefficients exhibit wave-like interactions between wave modes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mini-99 Experiment Design and Target Assembly

Qualification of nuclear fuels requires an understanding of a myriad of fuel performance variables, which requires time-consuming irradiations in test reactors. Accelerating burnup accumulation to reduce the irradiation time has historically been accomplished by increasing the 235 U enrichment in integral fuel tests, which inherently couples the fuel’s temperature and fission heat generation. Separate effects irradiation testing of nuclear fuel, using the MiniFuel target in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR), offers an approach for decoupling fuel temperature and fission rate by reducing the quantity of the fuel and relying primarily on gamma heating in the surrounding components to drive fuel temperatures. However, if the fission rate is high enough, the fuel temperature will still vary over time as the fission heating changes, primarily due to poor heat conduction between the fuel and the surrounding components. This work details the design, analysis, and fabrication of a MiniFuel target which utilizes sodium bonding to improve the heat rejection from the fuel specimen, enabling the testing of higher 235 U enrichments (~8wt.%) to further accelerate burnup accumulation without prohibitively large temperature variations throughout the course of the irradiation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dataset: "Widespread Drought-driven Declines in Streamflows and Water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin (1998-2022)"

This data package contains the associated data and scripts for Nagamoto, E., Ombadi, M., Ciulla, F. et al. Widespread drought-driven declines in streamflows and water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin during 1998-2022. Commun Earth Environ 7, 734 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03890-5. This purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of the 21st century drought on water quantity and quality at catchments throughout the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). We used stream flow, water temperature, specific conductance, air temperature, precipitation, and catchment attribute data for over 200 sites in the UCRB, collected from the National Water Information System using Basin3D (Varadharajan, 2023), GAGESII (Falcone, 2010), and the Google Earth Engine. We identified years of severe drought between 1998 and 2022 using the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), then calculated the relative change percentage of the stream flow, water temperature, and specific conductance from drought versus non-drought years. We used the attribute information from GAGESII to investigate what physical traits of catchments are associated streamflow vulnerability (greater relative change) or resilience to drought. We used land cover data from the National Land Cover Database (USGS, 2024) to assess any changes to physical attributes that may not be represented in the static attributes information in GAGESII. To increase data availability, we modeled stream temperature using methods from Willard, 2023. While the study period is water years 1998 to 2022, the raw water quantity and quality data extends to 1950 and the meteorological data extends to 1980. The data and code can be downloaded via the UCRB_drought.zip. Within the zip, the files are organized as follows: - INPUTS: Contains all input data used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb - OUTPUTS: Contains all intermediate data created from UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb as well as final products including the calculated Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) - climatic_variables: The code used to collect meteorologic data from Google Earth Engine - feature_importance: The code used for the catchment attributes analysis - preprocessing: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb - pyeto: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb - calculations: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impacts.ipynb - plotting: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impacts.ipynb - README.md - UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb: The code used to prep raw data for the analysis - UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impact.ipynb: The code which uses the prepped raw data for analysis, and plots all figures - requirements_ucrb-drought_v2.yml: The requirements file to create a virtual environment and Jupyter Lab kernel to run the code The INPUTS folder is organized into the following major directories and sub-directories. The "RDC_WT_SC_RAW" folder contains raw data for streamflow, water temperature, and specific conductance in a ".h5" file. The "NLCD_RAW" folder contains ".csv" files with annual land cover percentages for counties within the UCRB. The "MET_RAW" folder contains a ".csv" file with monthly meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) for the sites in the UCRB which was obtained from code in the climatic_variables folder. The "GAGESII" folder contains ".csv" files with physical catchment attribute variables for catchments across the country. The "WT_LSTM_data" folder contains ".csv" files with calculated WT (Willard, 2023) and the associated RMSEs. The "Upper_Colorado_River_Basin_Boundary" folder contains geographic data including a shapefile for plotting in the UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb. The "RESERVOIRS_RAW" folder contains ".csv" files for each reservoir in the UCRB with daily reservoir storage. There are also two files in the INPUTS folder that have combined reservoir storage data and reservoir metadata. The OUTPUTS folder is organized into the following major directories and sub-directories. The "RDC_WT_SC_data" folder contains a folder "Water_year" with the associated cleaned data, metadata, and data availability information in ".csv" files, a folder "Median_Relchange" with the relative change comparing drought to non-drought years in ".csv" files, and a folder "Peak95_Min5_Relchange" that has ".csv" files for the relative change in peak (95th %) and minimum (5th %) variables. The "NLCD_data" folder contains the difference in land cover from the beginning to end of the study period and the percentage of the county that is within UCRB bounds can be found in Nagamoto et al (2025)). The "MET_data" folder contains separated monthly air temperature and precipitation data and the calculated PET in ".csv" files. The "SPEI_data" folder contains ".csv" files with calculated SPEI values (one restricted to the study period and the other with information from the entire MET data period). The "Paper_Tables" folder contains two ".csv" files containing site information and data availability and information about the GAGESII trait aggregated categories. The base directory includes the file “flmd.csv” for a list and description of all files and the file “dd.csv” for data dictionaries. Scripts for preprocessing, analysis, and figure generation are located in the associated GitHub repository found at [https://github.com/iNAIADS/drought-impacts/tree/develop/UCRB-drought]. UPDATE 1: Title and code file updated to match submitted manuscript 10-15-2025. UPDATE 2: Code and data files updated to match revised manuscript 3-4-2026. UPDATE 3: Code and data files updated to match revised manuscript 6-7-2026. ** NOTE: DD and FLMD have not been updated yet. UPDATE 4: Added associated Manuscript information and DD and FLMD have been updated. To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX: @misc{nagamoto2025drought, author = {Emily Nagamoto and Fabio Ciulla and Mohammad Ombadi and Jared Willard and Rosemary Carroll and Charuleka Varadharajan}, title = {Dataset: "Widespread Drought-driven Declines in Streamflows and Water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin (1998-2022)"}, year = {2025}, doi = {10.15485/2551894}, publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository}, url = {https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2551894} }

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flood Susceptibility Mapping Using Machine Learning and Geospatial-Sentinel-1 SAR Integration for Enhanced Early Warning Systems

This study presents a comprehensive framework for flood susceptibility mapping by integrating geospatial factors with both statistical and machine learning models. Thirteen Flood-related factors, including DEM, slope, TWI, NDVI, etc., are extracted as features of models, and historical flood data derived from Sentinel-1 SAR from 2018 to 2023 are used as the target variables of the models. These datasets are analyzed using a frequency-based statistical model and three machine learning models, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and CNN, to generate flood susceptibility maps. The performance of each model is evaluated through AUC; and SHAP scores are separately generated for Machine learning (ML) models to explain each feature contribution in the ML model. The generated susceptibility maps are validated by high-flood-risk locations monitored by flood sensors, BLE inundation models, and flood-prone areas suggested by the Local Community Task Force. The results indicate that the XGBoost model outperforms all other models, with an AUC of 0.92 and demonstrates the highest alignment with recommended high-flood-risk locations, while the frequency-based statistical model showed the weakest performance with an AUC of 0.65. SHAP value graphs highlight the elevation, slope, and TWI as the most influential features across all models. The susceptibility maps generated by the machine learning model show strong agreement with the BLE map and high-flood-risk areas identified by the local Community Task Force.

Google Engine↗
DOE OSTI2023

Discovery of the lensed quasar eRASS1 J050129.5–073309 with SRG/eROSITA and Gaia

We report the discovery and spectroscopic identification of the bright doubly lensed quasar eRASS1 J050129.5–073309 at redshift z = 2.47, selected from the first all-sky survey of the Spectrum Roentgen Gamma (SRG) eROSITA telescope and the Gaia EDR3 catalog. We systematically searched for extragalactic sources with eROSITA X-ray positions that have multiple Gaia counterparts, and we have started spectroscopic follow-up of the most promising candidates using long-slit spectroscopy with NTT/EFOSC2 to confirm the lens nature. The two images are separated by 2.7", and their average Gaia g-band magnitudes are 16.95 and 17.33. Legacy Survey DR10 imaging and image modeling reveal both the lensing galaxy and tentatively the lensed image of the quasar host galaxy. Archival optical light curves show evidence of a variability time delay, with the fainter component lagging the brighter by about 100 days. The brightness of the fainter image has also decreased by about one magnitude since 2019. This dimming was still obvious at the time of the spectroscopic observations and is probably caused by microlensing. The optical spectroscopic follow-up obtained from NTT/EFOSC2 and the evidence provided by the imaging and timing analysis allow us to confirm the lensed nature of eRASS1 J050129.5–073309.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning Forecasts of Rare Stratospheric Transitions from Short Simulations

Abstract Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other winter, the boreal stratospheric polar vortex rapidly breaks down, shifting midlatitude surface weather patterns for months. We focus on two key quantities of interest: the probability of an SSW occurring, and the expected lead time if it does occur, as functions of initial condition. These optimal forecasts concretely measure the event’s progress. Direct numerical simulation can estimate them in principle but is prohibitively expensive in practice: each rare event requires a long integration to observe, and the cost of each integration grows with model complexity. We describe an alternative approach using integrations that are short compared to the time scale of the warming event. We compute the probability and lead time efficiently by solving equations involving the transition operator, which encodes all information about the dynamics. We relate these optimal forecasts to a small number of interpretable physical variables, suggesting optimal measurements for forecasting. We illustrate the methodology on a prototype SSW model developed by Holton and Mass and modified by stochastic forcing. While highly idealized, this model captures the essential nonlinear dynamics of SSWs and exhibits the key forecasting challenge: the dramatic separation in time scales between a single event and the return time between successive events. Our methodology is designed to fully exploit high-dimensional data from models and observations, and has the potential to identify detailed predictors of many complex rare events in meteorology.

Finkel, Justin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coupling Kinesin Spindle Protein and Aurora B Inhibition with Apoptosis Induction Enhances Oral Cancer Cell Killing

Many proteins regulating mitosis have emerged as targets for cancer therapy, including the kinesin spindle protein (KSP) and Aurora kinase B (AurB). KSP is crucial for proper spindle pole separation during mitosis, while AurB plays roles in chromosome segregation and cytokinesis. Agents targeting KSP and AurB selectively affect dividing cells and have shown significant activity in vitro. However, these drugs, despite advancing to clinical trials, often yield unsatisfactory outcomes as monotherapy, likely due to variable responses driven by cyclin B degradation and apoptosis signal accumulation networks. Accumulated data suggest that combining emerging antimitotics with various cytostatic drugs can enhance tumor-killing effects compared to monotherapy. Here, we investigated the impact of inhibiting anti-apoptotic signals with the BH3-mimetic Navitoclax in oral cancer cells treated with the selective KSP inhibitor, Ispinesib, or AurB inhibitor, Barasertib, aiming to potentiate cell death. The combination of BH3-mimetics with both KSP and AurB inhibitors synergistically induced substantial cell death, primarily through apoptosis. A mechanistic analysis underlying this synergistic activity, undertaken by live-cell imaging, is presented. Our data underscore the importance of combining BH3-mimetics with antimitotics in clinical trials to maximize their effectiveness.

Silva, João P. N. (ORCID:0000000344554286)↗