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At least 289 records · Page 16

Recommendations for Using Noise Monitors to Estimate Noise Exposure During X-59 Community Tests

A low fidelity simulation approach is used to explore how to place and use noise monitors during X-59 QueSST community tests, where people’s annoyance to the noise produced by the X-59 aircraft will be gathered. Several recommendations are provided including: 1) the desired number of sparsely spaced noise monitor sites within the survey area, 2) whether to group and average measurements across multiple noise monitors located at a site, 3) what spacing should be used if grouped noise monitors are used, 4) an approach to mitigate ambient noise contamination at the measurement sites, 5) a method to combine empirical and predicted dose estimates to provide a single dose estimate for respondents, and 6) assessing how changes in turbulence intensity and array configuration affect dose uncertainty. To make these recommendations, the error that is expected when fitting contrived, smoothly varying sonic boom “reference exposure surfaces” is studied when a spatially sparse and scattered set of samples is used as responses for the fit. The reference exposure surfaces mimic the sonic boom exposure at ground level that might be expected in the X-59 survey area in the absence of atmospheric turbulence, ambient noise, and other localized effects. The spatial extent of these surfaces varies and is representative of the different survey area sizes that might be expected during future X-59 community overflight tests. These contrived reference surfaces are sampled, and those reference samples are then perturbed to mimic atmospheric turbulence, ambient noise and other localized effects that might affect noise monitor measurements within overflown communities. Two different surface fitting methods are investigated when fitting these perturbed samples to approximate the reference surface. The first method uses interpolation between the perturbed data at the scattered sites to compute the fit. The second method fits a polynomial surface model to the perturbed data using ordinary least squares regression analysis. For both fitting methods, the root mean square fit error is computed from the pointwise difference between the fit surface and the reference surface as the count and configuration of the sites is varied while also averaging the error across many different realizations of both the smooth variation of the reference exposure surface and the random, localized perturbations at the sample sites. Different site configurations are compared using this error statistic to make the recommendations noted above. Additionally, the two fitting approaches (interpolation vs linear regression) are compared based on the fit error observed in these simulations. These analyses, comparisons, and recommendations should inform future decisions on the noise monitor placement and the methods used to analyze the noise monitor data that is collected during X-59 community overflights.

sonic boom↗

Pluto-Charon stellar occultation candidates - 1990-1995

A search to identify stars that might be occulted by Pluto or Charon during the period 1990-1995 and part of 1996 is studied. This search was made with an unfiltered CCD camera operated in the strip scanning mode, and it reaches an R magnitude of approximately 17.5 - about 1.5 mag fainter than previous searches. Circumstances for each of the 162 potential occultations are given, including an approximate R magnitude of the star, which allows estimation of the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) for observation of each occultation. The faintest stars in the list would yield an S/N of about 20 for a 1 s integration when observed with a CCD detector on an 8 m telescope under a dark sky. The astrometric precision (+/- 0.2 arcsec, with larger systematic errors possible for individual cases) is insufficient to serve as a final prediction for these potential occultations, but is sufficient to identify stars deserving of further, more accurate, astrometric observations. Statistically, about 32 of these events to be observable somewhere on earth are expected. The number of events actually observed will be substantially smaller because of clouds and the sparse distribution of large telescopes. Finder charts for each of the 91 stars involved are presented.

Dunham, E. W.↗

Pluto-Charon Stellar Occultation Candidates: 1990-1995

We have carried out a search to identify stars that might be occulted by Pluto or Charon during the period 1990-1995 and part of 1996. This search was made with an unfiltered CCD camera operated in the strip scanning mode, and it reaches an R magnitude of approximately 17.5-about 1.5 mag fainter than previous searches. Circumstances for each of the 162 potential occultations are given, including an approximate R magnitude of the star, which allows estimation of the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) for observation of each occultation. The faintest stars in our list would yield an S/N of about 20 for a 1 S integration when observed with a CCD detector on an 8 m telescope under a dark sky. Our astrometric precision (+/- 0.2 arcsec, with larger systematic errors possible for individual cases) is insufficient to serve as a final prediction for these potential occultations, but is sufficient to identify stars deserving of further, more accurate, astrometric observations. Statistically, we expect about 32 of these events to be observable somewhere on Earth. The number of events actually observed will be substantially smaller because of clouds and the sparse distribution of large telescopes. Finder charts for each of the 91 stars involved are presented.

Dunham, E. W.↗

Characteristics of the Variable Star P Cygni Determined from Cluster Membership

Empirical information on the luminosity, reddening, age, and mass of the variable B2 Oe supergiant P Cygni is derived from its assumed membership in the sparse anonymous cluster on which it is projected, as well as its association with the spatially adjacent cluster IC 4996, which forms a double cluster with the P Cyg cluster. Evidence for the high luminosity of P Cyg is confirmed by its derived absolute magnitude of M(sub V)= -8.46 +/- 0.03, which translates to log (L/L(sun)) = 5.54 +/- 0.02 for an effective temperature consistent with the star's derived space reddening (E(sub B-V) = 0.53 +/- 0.02). More surprising is an age for the associated clusters of 6 (+/- 1.5) x 10(exp 6) years, corresponding to a turnoff point mass of 25.1 (+/- 5.5) M(sun). By inference, P Cygni, as a post main-sequence object, should have a mass of no more than approximately 23-35 M(sun).

Turner, David G.↗

National population mapping from sparse survey data: A hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty

Population estimates are critical for government services, development projects, and public health campaigns. Such data are typically obtained through a national population and housing census. However, population estimates can quickly become inaccurate in localized areas, particularly where migration or displacement has occurred. Some conflict-affected and resource-poor countries have not conducted a census in over 10 y. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate population numbers in small areas based on enumeration data from sample areas and nationwide information about administrative boundaries, building locations, settlement types, and other factors related to population density. We demonstrated this model by estimating population sizes in every 10- m grid cell in Nigeria with national coverage. These gridded population estimates and areal population totals derived from them are accompanied by estimates of uncertainty based on Bayesian posterior probabilities. The model had an overall error rate of 67 people per hectare (mean of absolute residuals) or 43% (using scaled residuals) for predictions in out-of-sample survey areas (approximately 3 ha each), with increased precision expected for aggregated population totals in larger areas. This statistical approach represents a significant step toward estimating populations at high resolution with national coverage in the absence of a complete and recent census, while also providing reliable estimates of uncertainty to support informed decision making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Regional Tropical Aboveground Biomass Mapping with L-Band Repeat-Pass Interferometric Radar, Sparse Lidar, and Multiscale Superpixels

We introduce a multiscale superpixel approach that leverages repeat-pass interferometric coherence and sparse AGB estimates from a simulated spaceborne lidar in order to extend the NISAR mission’s applicable range of aboveground biomass (AGB) in tropical forests. Airborne and spaceborne L-band radar and full-waveform airborne lidar data are used to simulate the NISAR and GEDI mission, respectively. In addition to UAVSAR data, we use spaceborneALOS-2/PALSAR-2 imagery with 14-day temporal baseline, which is comparable to NISAR’s 12-daybaseline. Our reference AGB maps are derived from the airborne LVIS data during the AfriSAR campaign for three sites (Mondah, Ogooue, and Lope). Each tropical site has mean AGB of at least 125 Mg/ha in addition to areas with AGB exceeding 700 Mg/ha. Spatially sampling from these LVIS-derived AGB reference maps, we approximate GEDI AGB estimates. To evaluate our methodology, we perform several different analyses. First, we partition each study site into low(≤100 Mg/ha) and high (>100 Mg/ha) AGB areas, in conformity with the NISAR mission requirement to provide AGB estimates for forests between 0 and 100 Mg/ha with a RMSE below 20 Mg/ha. In the low AGB areas, this RMSE requirement is satisfied in Lope and Mondah and it fell short of the requirement in Ogooue by less 3 Mg/ha with UAVSAR and 6 Mg/ha with PALSAR-2. We note that our maps have finer spatial resolution (50 m) than NISAR requires (1 hectare). In the high AGB areas, the normalized RMSE increases to 51% (i.e.,<90 Mg/ha), but with negligible bias for all three sites. Second, we train a single model to estimate AGB across both high and low AGB regimes simultaneously and obtain a normalized RMSE that is<60% (or<100 Mg/ha). Lastly, we show the use of both (a) multiscale superpixels and (b) interferometric coherence significantly improves the accuracy of the AGB estimates. The InSAR coherence improved the RMSE by approximately 8% at Mondah with both sensors, lowering the RMSE from 59 Mg/ha to 47.4 Mg/h with UAVSAR and from 57.1 Mg/ha to 46 Mg/ha. This work illustrates one of the numerous synergistic relationships between the spaceborne lidars, such as GEDI, with L-band SAR, such as PALSAR-2 and NISAR, in order to produce robust regional AGB in high biomass tropical regions.

NISAR↗

Quantum Search Approaches to Sampling-Based Motion Planning

In this paper, we present a novel formulation of traditional sampling-based motion planners as database-oracle structures that can be solved via quantum search algorithms. We consider two complementary scenarios: for simpler sparse environments, we formulate the Quantum Full Path Search Algorithm (q-FPS), which creates a superposition of full random path solutions, manipulates probability amplitudes with Quantum Amplitude Amplification (QAA), and quantum measures a single obstacle free full path solution. For dense unstructured environments, we formulate the Quantum Rapidly Exploring Random Tree algorithm, q-RRT, that creates quantum superpositions of possible parent-child connections, manipulates probability amplitudes with QAA, and quantum measures a single reachable state, which is added to a tree. As performance depends on the number of oracle calls and the probability of measuring good quantum states, we quantify how these errors factor into the probabilistic completeness properties of the algorithm. We then numerically estimate the expected number of database solutions to provide an approximation of the optimal number of oracle calls in the algorithm. We compare the q-RRT algorithm with a classical implementation and verify quadratic run-time speedup in the largest connected component of a 2D dense random lattice. We conclude by evaluating a proposed approach to limit the expected number of database solutions and thus limit the optimal number of oracle calls to a given number.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Central Valley Water Resources: Improving California Groundwater Assessments using GRACE and InSAR Datasets for Water Resource Management

California’s Central Valley is one of the most productive agricultural areas in the world, producing approximately $20 billion in crops annually. The recent California droughts of 2007-2010 and 2011-2017 resulted in increased groundwater pumping in the Central Valley to adequately irrigate farmland. Overdrafting of the Central Valley aquifer results in groundwater depletion, land subsidence, and permanent loss of groundwater storage. In 2014, depletion of groundwater led the state of California to enact the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), requiring critically overdrafted, high, and medium priority sub-basins to reach sustainable levels of groundwater pumping and recharge by 2042. SGMA allows local Groundwater Sustainability Agencies the authority to create Groundwater Sustainability Plans at the sub-basin level. To assist California’s Department of Water Resources, this project quantified groundwater change and land subsidence in Central Valley sub-basins with sparse or unreliable well and GPS data. This was done using NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO), and interferograms derived from Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR) and Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2 (ALOS-2) Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar 2 (PALSAR-2). Time series of the GRACE and InSAR data were compared with well and GPS data in data-dense sub-basins to determine the feasibility of these datasets for groundwater storage and subsidence monitoring. We found thatGRACE and InSAR data are effective tools for determining groundwater change and land subsidence and can be used on their own to monitor sub-basins in the absence of well and GPS data.

Water Resources↗

A Case for Nebula Scale Mixing Between Non-Carbonaceous and Carbonaceous Chondrite Reservoirs: Testing the Grand Tack Model with Chromium Isotopic Composition of Almahata Sitta Stone 91A

There is an increasing number of Cr-O-Ti isotope studies that show solar system materials are divided into two main populations, one carbonaceous chondrite (CC)-like and the other is non-carbonaceous (NC)-like, with minimal mixing attributed to a gap opened in the protoplanetary disk due to Jupiter's formation. The Grand Tack model suggests there should be large-scale mixing between S- and C-type asteroids, an idea supported by our recent work on chondrule (Delta)17O-ε54Cr isotope systematics. The Almahata Sitta (AhS) meteorite provides a unique opportunity to test the Grand Tack model. The meteorite fell to Earth in October 2008 and has been linked to the asteroid 2008 TC3 which was discovered just prior to the fall of the AhS stones. The AhS meteorite is composed of up to 700 individual pieces with approx.140 of those pieces having some geochemical and/or petrologic studies. Almahata Sitta is an anomalous polymict ureilite with other meteorite components, including enstatite, ordinary, and carbonaceous chondrites with an approximate abundance of 70% ureilites and 30% chondrites. This observation has lead to the suggestion that TC3 2008 was a loosely aggregated rubble pile-like asteroid with the non-ureilite sample clasts within the rubble-pile. Due to the loosely-aggregated nature of AhS, the object disintegrated during atmospheric entry resulting in the weakly held clasts falling predominantly as individual stones in the AhS collection area. However, recent work has identified one sample of AhS, sample 91A, which may represent two different lithologies coexisting within a single stone. The predominate lithology type in 91A appears to be that of a C2 chondrite based on mineralogy but also contains olivine, pyroxene, and albite that have ureilite-like compositions. Previous Cr isotope investigations into AhS stones are sparse and what data is available show nearly uniform isotopic composition similar to that of typical ureilites with negative ε54Cr values.

Sanborn, M. E.↗

Central Valley Water Resources: Improving California Groundwater Assessments using GRACE and InSAR Datasets for Water Resource Management

California’s Central Valley is one of the most productive agricultural areas in the world, producing approximately $20 billion in crops annually. The recent California droughts of 2007-2010 and 2012-2019 resulted in increased groundwater pumping in the Central Valley to adequately irrigate farmland. Overdrafting of the Central Valley aquifer results in groundwater depletion, land subsidence, and permanent loss of groundwater storage. In 2014, depletion of groundwater led the state of California to enact the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA),requiring critically overdrafted, high, and medium priority sub-basins to reach sustainable levels of groundwater pumping and recharge by 2042. SGMA allows local Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) the authority to create Groundwater Sustainability Plans (GSPs) at the sub-basin level. To assist California’s Department of Water Resources (DWR), this project quantified groundwater change and land subsidence in Central Valley sub-basins with sparse or unreliable well and Geographic Positioning Systems (GPS) data. This was done using NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), GRACE FollowOn (GRACE-FO), and interferograms derived from Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR) and Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2 (ALOS-2)Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar 2 (PALSAR-2). Time series of the GRACE and InSAR data were compared with well and GPS data in data-dense sub-basins to determine the feasibility of these datasets for groundwater storage and subsidence monitoring. We found that GRACE and InSAR data are effective tools for determining groundwater change and land subsidence and can be used on their own to monitor sub-basins in the absence of well and GPS data

Water Resources↗

Optimizing shift selection in multilevel Monte Carlo for disconnected diagrams in lattice QCD

The calculation of disconnected diagram contributions to physical signals is a computationally expensive task in Lattice QCD. To extract the physical signal, the trace of the inverse Lattice Dirac operator, a large sparse matrix, must be stochastically estimated. Because the variance of the stochastic estimator is typically large, variance reduction techniques must be employed. Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods reduce the variance of the trace estimator by utilizing a telescoping sequence of estimators. Frequency Splitting is one such method that uses a sequence of inverses of shifted operators to estimate the trace of the inverse lattice Dirac operator, however there is no a priori way to select the shifts that minimize the cost of the multilevel trace estimation. Here we present a sampling and interpolation scheme that is able to predict the variances associated with Frequency Splitting under displacements of the underlying space time lattice. The interpolation scheme is able to predict the variances to high accuracy and therefore chooses shifts that correspond to an approximate minimum of the cost for the trace estimation. We show that Frequency Splitting with the chosen shifts displays significant speedups over multigrid deflation, and that these shifts can be used for multiple configurations within the same ensemble with no penalty to performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

High-Resolution N-Band Observations of the Nova RS Ophiuchi with the Keck Interferometer Nuller

We report new observations of the nova RS Ophiuchi (RS Oph) using the Keck Interferometer Nulling Instrument, approximately 3.8 days following the most recent outburst that occurred on 2006 February 12. The Keck Interferometer Nuller (KIN) operates in K-band from 8 to 12.5 pm in a nulling mode, which means that the central broad-band interference fringe is a dark fringe - with an angular width of 25 mas at mid band - rather than the bright fringe used ill a conventional optical interferometer. In this mode the stellar light itself is suppressed by the destructive fringe, effectively enhancing the contrast of the circumstellar material located near the star. By subsequently shifting the neighboring bright fringe onto the center of the source brightness distribution and integrating, a second spatial regime dominated by light from the central portion of the source is almost simultaneously sampled. The nulling technique is the sparse aperture equivalent of the conventional corongraphic technique used in filled aperture telescopes. By fitting the unique KIK inner and outer spatial regime data, we have obtained an angular size of the mid-infrared continuum of 6.2, 4.0. or 5.4 mas for a disk profile, gaussian profile (fwhm), and shell profile respectively. The data show evidence of enhanced neutral atomic hydrogen emission located in the inner spatial regime relative to the outer regime. There is also evidence of a 9.7 micron silicate feature seen outside of this region. Importantly, we see spectral lines excited by the nova flash in the outer region before the blast wave reaches these regions. These lines are from neutral, weakly excited atoms which support the following interpretation. We discuss the present results in terms of a unifying model of the system that includes an increase in density in the plane of the orbit of the two stars created by a spiral shock wave caused by the motion of the stars through the cool wind of the red giant star. These data show the power and potential of the nulling technique which has been developed for the detection of Earth-like planets around nearby stars for the Terrestrial Planet Finder Mission and Darwin missions.

Barry, R. K.↗

Interpolation as a means of shift selection for multilevel Monte Carlo with lattice displacements

The calculation of disconnected diagram contributions to physical signals is a computationally expensive task in Lattice QCD. To extract the physical signal, the trace of the inverse Lattice Dirac operator, a large sparse matrix, must be stochastically estimated. Because the variance of the stochastic estimator is typically large, variance reduction techniques must be employed. Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods reduce the variance of the trace estimator by utilizing a telescoping sequence of estimators. Frequency Splitting is one such method that uses a sequence of inverses of shifted operators to estimate the trace of the inverse of the lattice Dirac operator, however there is no a priori way to select the shifts that minimize the cost of the multilevel trace estimation. We present a sampling and interpolation scheme that is able to predict the variances associated with Frequency Splitting under displacements of the underlying space time lattice. The interpolation scheme is able to predict the variances to high accuracy and therefore choose shifts that correspond to an approximate minimum of the cost for the trace estimation. We show that Frequency Splitting with the chosen shifts displays significant speedups over multigrid deflation

Whyte, Travis↗

Polarimetric Geometric Modeling for mm-VLBI Observations of Black Holes

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) array that has imaged the apparent shadows of the supermassive black holes M87* and Sagittarius A*. Polarimetric data from these observations contain a wealth of information on the black hole and accretion flow properties. In this work, we develop polarimetric geometric modeling methods for mm-VLBI data, focusing on approaches that fit data products with differing degrees of invariance to broad classes of calibration errors. We establish a fitting procedure using a polarimetric “m-ring” model to approximate the image structure near a black hole. By fitting this model to synthetic EHT data from general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic models, we show that the linear and circular polarization structure can be successfully approximated with relatively few model parameters. We then fit this model to EHT observations of M87* taken in 2017. In total intensity and linear polarization, the m-ring fits are consistent with previous results from imaging methods. In circular polarization, the m-ring fits indicate the presence of event-horizon-scale circular polarization structure, with a persistent dipolar asymmetry and orientation across several days. The same structure was recovered independently of observing band, used data products, and model assumptions. Despite this broad agreement, imaging methods do not produce similarly consistent results. Our circular polarization results, which imposed additional assumptions on the source structure, should thus be interpreted with some caution. Polarimetric geometric modeling provides a useful and powerful method to constrain the properties of horizon-scale polarized emission, particularly for sparse arrays like the EHT.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Observation-Based, Reduced-Form Model for Oxidation in the Remote Marine Troposphere

The hydroxyl radical (OH) fuels atmospheric chemical cycling as the main sink for methane and a driver of the formation and loss of many air pollutants, but direct OH observations are sparse. We develop and evaluate an observation-based proxy for short term, spatial variations in OH (Proxy OH ) in the remote marine troposphere using unprecedented and comprehensive measurements from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) airborne campaign. Proxy OH is a reduced form of the OH steady-state equation representing the dominant OH production and loss pathways in the remote marine troposphere, according to box model simulations of OH constrained with ATom observations. Proxy OH comprises only eight variables that are generally observed by routine ground- or satellite-based instruments. ProxyOH scales linearly with in situ [OH] spatial variations along the ATom flight tracks (median r 2 = 0.90, interquartile range = 0.80 – 0.94 across 2 km altitude by 20° latitudinal regions). We deconstruct spatial variations in Proxy OH as a first-order approximation of the sensitivity of OH variations to individual terms. Two terms modulate within-region Proxy OH variations—water vapor (H 2 O) and, to a lesser extent, nitric oxide (NO). This implies that a limited set of observations could offer a novel avenue for observation-based mapping of OH spatial variations over much of the remote marine troposphere. Both H 2 O and NO are expected to change with climate, while NO also varies strongly with human activities. We also illustrate the utility of Proxy OH as a process-based approach for evaluating inter-model differences in remote marine tropospheric OH.

Colleen B. Baublitz↗

The Influence of Correlated Crustal Signals in Modelling the Main Geomagnetic Field

Algorithms used in geomagnetic main-field modelling have for the most part treated the noise in the field measurements as if it were white. A major component of the noise consists of the field due to magnetization in the crust and it has been realized for some time that such signals are highly correlated at satellite altitude. Hence approximation by white noise, while of undoubted utility, is of unknown validity. In this paper we study two plausible statistical models for the crustal magnetization, in which the magnetization is a realization of a stationary, isotropic, random process. At a typical satellite altitude the associated fields exhibit significant correlation over ranges as great as 15 deg. or more, which introduces off-diagonal elements into the covariance matrix, elements that have usually been neglected in modelling procedures. Dealing with a full covariance matrix for a large data set would present a formidable computational challenge, but fortunately most of the entries in the covariance matrix are so small that they can be replaced by zeros. The resultant matrix comprises only about 3 per cent non-zero entries and thus we can take advantage of efficient sparse matrix techniques to solve the numerical system. We construct several main-field models based on vertical-component data from a selected 5 deg. by 5 deg. data set derived from the Magsat mission. Models with and without off-diagonal terms are compared.

Rygaard-Hjalsted, C.↗

Optimized Auxiliary Functions for Robust Mitigation of Finite-Size Errors in Periodic Hybrid Density Functional Theory

When calculating properties of periodic systems at the thermodynamic limit (TDL), the dominant source of finite size error (FSE) arises from the long-range Coulomb interaction, and can manifest as a slowly converging quadrature error when approximating an integral in the reciprocal space by a finite sum. The singularity subtraction (SS) method offers a systematic approach for reducing this quadrature error and thus the FSE. Here, in this work, we first investigate the performance of the SS method in the simplest setting, aiming at reducing the FSE in exact exchange calculations by subtracting the Coulomb contribution with a single, adjustable Gaussian auxiliary function. We demonstrate that a simple fitting method can robustly estimate the optimal Gaussian width and leads to rapid convergence toward the TDL. Furthermore, we suggest new forms of the auxiliary function, whose optimal parameters could also be determined through least-squares fitting. For a range of semiconductors and insulators, the proposed auxiliary functions achieve robust, millihartree-level accuracy in hybrid density functional theory calculations, including cases with sparse k-meshes and large basis sets.

Quiton, Stephen Jon [University of California, Ber↗

Multi-year assessment of the impact of ship-borne radiosonde observations on polar WRF forecasts in the Arctic

Abstract To compensate for the lack of conventional observations over the Arctic Ocean, ship-borne radiosonde observations have been regularly carried out during summer Arctic expeditions and the observed data have been broadcast via the global telecommunication system since 2017. With these data obtained over the data-sparse Arctic Ocean, observing system experiments were carried out using a polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system to investigate their effects on analyses and forecasts over the Arctic. The results of verification against reanalysis data reveal: (1) DA effects on analyses and forecasts; (2) the reason for the year-to-year variability of DA effects; and (3) the possible role of upper-level potential vorticity in delayed DA effects. The overall assimilation effects of the extra data on the analyses and forecasts over the Arctic are positive. Initially, the DA effects are the most apparent in the temperature variables in the middle/lower troposphere, which spread to the wind variables in the upper troposphere. The effects decrease with time but reappear after approximately 120 h, even in the 240-h forecasts. The effects on forecasts vary depending on the proximity of the radiosonde observation locations to the high synoptic variability. The upper-level potential vorticity is known to play an important role in the development of Arctic cyclones, and it is suggested as a possible explanation for the delayed DA effects after about 120 h.

Geology↗