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NASA NTRS2001

Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model

This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Coherent optical correlator using a deformable mirror device spatial light modulator in the Fourier plane

Attention is given to experimental results for a binary phase-only filter implementation's correlation operations, using the deformable mirror device (DMD) spatial light modulator as the Fourier plane filter. These results demonstrate the basic capabilities of the DMD in an image correlator system which, in combination with the potential 8-kHz frame rate for 128 x 128 DMDs, can constitute a very high speed pattern recognition system. The DMD has the further capability of operating in the analog mode.

Florence, James M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A Discrete Probability Function Method for the Equation of Radiative Transfer

A discrete probability function (DPF) method for the equation of radiative transfer is derived. The DPF is defined as the integral of the probability density function (PDF) over a discrete interval. The derivation allows the evaluation of the PDF of intensities leaving desired radiation paths including turbulence-radiation interactions without the use of computer intensive stochastic methods. The DPF method has a distinct advantage over conventional PDF methods since the creation of a partial differential equation from the equation of transfer is avoided. Further, convergence of all moments of intensity is guaranteed at the basic level of simulation unlike the stochastic method where the number of realizations for convergence of higher order moments increases rapidly. The DPF method is described for a representative path with approximately integral-length scale-sized spatial discretization. The results show good agreement with measurements in a propylene/air flame except for the effects of intermittency resulting from highly correlated realizations. The method can be extended to the treatment of spatial correlations as described in the Appendix. However, information regarding spatial correlations in turbulent flames is needed prior to the execution of this extension.

Sivathanu, Y. R.↗

NASA NTRS1996

The NIST Real-Time Control System (RCS): A Reference Model Architecture for Computational Intelligence

The Real-time Control System (RCS) developed at NIST and elsewhere over the past two decades defines a reference model architecture for design and analysis of complex intelligent control systems. The RCS architecture consists of a hierarchically layered set of functional processing modules connected by a network of communication pathways. The primary distinguishing feature of the layers is the bandwidth of the control loops. The characteristic bandwidth of each level is determined by the spatial and temporal integration window of filters, the temporal frequency of signals and events, the spatial frequency of patterns, and the planning horizon and granularity of the planners that operate at each level. At each level, tasks are decomposed into sequential subtasks, to be performed by cooperating sets of subordinate agents. At each level, signals from sensors are filtered and correlated with spatial and temporal features that are relevant to the control function being implemented at that level.

Albus, James S.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Fine-scale motion in the central Orion nebula

The inner region of M42 has been mapped in the O III N1 forbidden line at an unprecedented combination of velocity and spatial resolution and photometric accuracy. Three separate velocity systems along the line of sight are identified. Differential mass flow is present in two of these systems. All three systems show random fluctuations in velocity well above their measurement errors. The point-by-point velocities are used to determine the diagnostic statistical parameter, the structure function. The random motions show correlation with spatial separation, as expected for turbulence; but comparison with the predictions of classical theory for nebular turbulence shows poor agreement. If Kolmogorov (1941, 1942) theory applies, then the energy must be input at many scales.

Castaneda, Hector O.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Inertial Screening in Sedimentation

Using particle image velocimetry we have measured the sedimentation dynamics of non-Brownian spheres over a wide range of Reynolds numbers (Re) between 0.001 and 2.5. Particle velocity fluctuations about the mean settling velocity show large-scale correlations whose spatial extent and magnitude Delta V/V are independent of Re up to a critical value Re less than Re(sub c). For Re greater than Re(sub c) the fluctuations substantially diminish with increasing Reynolds number due to inertial screening of the long-range hydrodynamic interactions (HI). The onset of inertial affects is found to occur when the Oseen length l(sub o)=v/V becomes of order the correlation length. In the inertial regime, the velocity fluctuations follow -(Delta V/V)(sup 2) approaching ln(Re), in agreement with an integration of the (l/r) HI over a narrow region extending up to the Oseen length l(sub o). A simple "blob" model connects the measured correlation lengths to the magnitudes of the velocity fluctuations.

Segre, P. N.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Optimal binary phase and amplitude correlation filters for polarization-rotating spatial light modulators

We investigate the optimal designs of binary phase and amplitude filters (BPAFs) for the key correlation metrics of peak intensity, peak-to-correlation energy, SNR, and discrimination. These filters may be implemented on binary polarization-rotating spatial light modulators. We present simulation results comparing performance to conventional binary phase-only filters (BPOFs) and illustrating trade-offs between the different performance criteria in terms of the filter design parameter. We also extend the generalization to three-level phase and amplitude filters with a nonzero region of support and demonstrate that optimal three-level BPAFs can provide clearly superior performance to optimal three-level BPOFs.

Downie, John D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SHERLOC: Results of the first 350 sols of operations

On February 18th 2021, the Perseverance rover landed in Jezero crater, Mars. This site was chosen because orbiter data analysis provides evidence that the crater hosted a stream-fed lake during the Martian Noachian period. The Octavia Butler landing site is located ~1.9 km east of the remnants of a river delta. Deltaic and lacustrine sediments can preserve biosignatures, making Jezero crater a prime target for Mars sample return science. One of the seven instruments on Perseverance’s science payload is SHERLOC –Scanning Habitable Environments with Raman and Luminescence for Organics and Chemicals. SHERLOC combines fluorescence and Raman spectroscopy with microscopic imaging to analyze surface material to better understand the history of the aqueous environments recorded in the rocks of Jezero crater and to search for potential biosignatures. SHERLOC imaging obtains high spatial resolution images of geological targets to identify grain-scale structure and texture. SHERLOC spectroscopy enables high-sensitivity detection, characterization, and spatially resolved correlation of trace organic materials. Native fluorescence emissions from aromatic organic species allow for detection and classification of aromatic organic molecules, whereas Raman scattered photons from molecules allow identification of functional groups of organics, chemicals, and minerals. In the first 300 sols, SHERLOC has analyzed 3 natural surfaces, and 5 abraded rock patches created during the Crater Floor Campaign within Jezero crater. SHERLOC has been able to identify phosphates, amorphous/microcrystalline silicate (AMS), olivine, sulfates, and carbonates in abraded patches in the green zone campaign within Jezero Crater Máaz and Séítah formations. Within these detections we have begun to tell the story of what this crater was like when it was full of liquid water over 3 billion years ago. In each of these samples we have identified fluorescence features that are likely aromatic organics native to the rock interiors. We have identified multiple unique fluorescence signatures, within each of the abraded patches. The organic signatures have either been widely distributed over an extended area, which is probably due to planetary wide dust, or have spatially resolved locations that are collocated with different mineral signatures. Note: Additional information available on attachment.

L. W. Beegle↗

NASA NTRS1972

Electric field variations during substorms: OGO-6 measurements

The OGO-6 electric field measurements make it clear that the general pattern of high latitude electric fields in magnetic time-invariant latitude coordinates is not highly variable and that when unusual variations, or field distributions, occur they are relatively isolated in time and spatial extent. Thus, electric field changes on a global scale cannot, in general, be evoked as a direct cause of substorms. Polar traverses along the 18(h) to 6(h) magnetic time meridian show that the sum of potential drops across the evening auroral belt and morning auroral belt approximately equals the potential drop across the polar cap. The integrated polar cap potential drop ranges from 20 to 100 keV and values in the center of this range are most common under conditions of moderate magnetic disturbance. Roughly near 18(h) magnetic local time, a latitudinally narrow strip at the transition between auroral belt and polar cap fields exhibits unusually large field fluctuations immediately following the sudden onset of a negative bay at later magnetic local times. It appears likely that this spatially isolated correlation is related to an effect rather than a cause of substorm enhancement.

Heppner, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Morphology and physical parameters of a solar flare

The chromospheric and coronal morphology of the flare of June 15, 1973, (1B/M3) in NOAA active region 131 (McMath 12379) is discussed, and results of quantitative analysis of Skylab soft X-ray observations of the event are presented. H-alpha and white-light observations reveal evidence of emerging flux near the site of the H-alpha flare onset. Preflare and early flare filament activity and its spatial and temporal correlation with the flare are discussed. Spatially resolved soft X-rays are compared with H-alpha and magnetic-field measurements. Full-disk high-temporal-resolution soft X-ray flux measurements and time profiles of the resultant temperature and density calculations are also presented which yield a peak temperature of about 14.2 million K and a peak electron density of approximately 3.5 deg 10 to the -10th power per cu cm and show a preflash-phase temperature rise to about 9 million K. The peak values should be compared with the respective values of approximately 25 million K and 4.5 by 10 to the -10th power per cu cm deduced from the spatially resolved data.

Smith, J. B., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Analysis of data from NASA B-57B gust gradient program

Statistical analysis of the turbulence measured in flight 6 of the NASA B-57B over Denver, Colorado, from July 7 to July 23, 1982 included the calculations of average turbulence parameters, integral length scales, probability density functions, single point autocorrelation coefficients, two point autocorrelation coefficients, normalized autospectra, normalized two point autospectra, and two point cross sectra for gust velocities. The single point autocorrelation coefficients were compared with the theoretical model developed by von Karman. Theoretical analyses were developed which address the effects spanwise gust distributions, using two point spatial turbulence correlations.

Frost, W.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Far-infrared image restoration analysis of the protostellar cluster in S140

Image restoration techniques are applied to one-dimensional scans at 50 and 100 microns of the protostellar cluster in S140. These measurements resolve the surrounding nebula clearly, and Fourier methods are used to match the effective beam profiles at these wavelengths. This allows the radial distribution of temperature and dust column density to be derived at a diffraction limited spatial resolution of 23 arcsec (0.1 pc). Evidence for heating of the S140 molecular cloud by a nearby ionization front is established, and the dissociation of molecules inside the ionization front is spatially well correlated with the heating of the dust. The far-infrared spectral distribution of the three near-infrared sources within 10 arcsesc of the cluster center is presented.

Lester, D. F.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Large-scale horizontal flows from SOUP observations of solar granulation

Using high resolution time sequence photographs of solar granulation from the SOUP experiment on Spacelab 2, large scale horizontal flows were observed in the solar surface. The measurement method is based upon a local spatial cross correlation analysis. The horizontal motions have amplitudes in the range 300 to 1000 m/s. Radial outflow of granulation from a sunspot penumbra into surrounding photosphere is a striking new discovery. Both the supergranulation pattern and cellular structures having the scale of mesogranulation are seen. The vertical flows that are inferred by continuity of mass from these observed horizontal flows have larger upflow amplitudes in cell centers than downflow amplitudes at cell boundaries.

November, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Comparison between muon spin rotation and neutron scattering studies on the 3-dimensional magnetic ordering of La2CuO(4-y)

Muon spin rotation and neutron scattering studies on powder and single-crystal specimens of La2CuO(4-y) are compared. The apparent difference between the muon and neutron results for the ordered moment in the antiferromagnetic state is interpreted as the signature of increasingly short-ranged spatial spin correlations with increasing oxygen content.

Uemura, Y. J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

The velocity structure and turbulence at the center of the Orion Nebula

Using the Coude Feed System of the Kitt Peak National Observatory at its highest possible dispersion and a CCD detector with wide dynamic range it was possible to examine in detail the radial and turbulent velocities of the Orion Nebula at the seeing limit. For the first time, multiple components of the spectral lines were resolved and the Gaussian profiles fit to them. Using four different observing runs, two circular areas 2 minutes in diameter were observed, the first centered on the theta sup 1 Orionis and the second centered on theta sup 2 Orionis. The velocity resolution of 1 km/s combined with the angular resolution of 2 seconds allowed observation in detail at line splitting as well as the location and measurement of high internal motions, about -50 km/s with respect to the bulk of ionized matter. Because over 900 different positions were measured, modern statistical techniques were used for the analysis of turbulence, so that the dispersion relation and the structure function could be calculated and compared with predictions of the Kolmogorov theory. The random motions showed correlation with spatial separation, as expected for turbulence; but comparison with predictions of the classical theory for nebular turbulence showed poor agreement. If Kolmogorov theory applies, then the energy must be input at many scales.

Castaneda, Hector O.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Galaxy clustering and the origin of large-scale flows

Peebles's 'cosmic virial theorem' is extended from its original range of validity at small separations, where hydrostatic equilibrium holds, to large separations, in which linear gravitational stability theory applies. The rms pairwise velocity difference at separation r is shown to depend on the spatial galaxy correlation function xi(x) only for x less than r. Gravitational instability theory can therefore be tested by comparing the two up to the maximum separation for which both can reliably be determined, and there is no dependence on the poorly known large-scale density and velocity fields. With the expected improvement in the data over the next few years, however, this method should yield a reliable determination of omega.

Juszkiewicz, R.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Optical pattern recognition; Proceedings of the Meeting, Los Angeles, CA, Jan. 17, 18, 1989

Papers on optical pattern recognition are presented, covering topics such as the estimation of satellite pose and motion parameters using a neural net tracker, associative memory, optical implmentation of programmable neural networks, optoelectronic neural networks, dynamic autoassociative neural memory, heteroassociative memory, bilinear pattern recognition processors, optical processing of optical correlation plane data, and a synthetic discriminant function-based nonlinear optical correlator. Other topics include an interactive optical-digital image processor, geometric transformations for video compression and human teleoperator display, quasiconformal remapping for compensation of human visual field defects, hybrid vision for automated spacecraft landing, advanced symbolic and inference optical correlation filters, and a rotationally invariant holographic tracking system. Additional topics include the detection of rotational and scale-varying objects with a programmable joint transform correlator, a single spatial light modulator binary nonlinear optical correlator, optical joint transform correlation, linear phase coefficient composite filters, and binary phase-only filters.

Liu, Hua-Kuang↗

NASA NTRS1992

Calculation of area-averaged vertical profiles of the horizontal wind velocity from volume-imaging lidar data

Area-averaged horizontal wind measurements are derived from the motion of spatial inhomogeneities in aerosol backscattering observed with a volume-imaging lidar. Spatial averaging provides high precision, reducing sample variations of wind measurements well below the level of turbulent fluctuations, even under conditions of very light mean winds and strong convection or under the difficult conditions represented by roll convection. Wind velocities are measured using the two-dimensional spatial cross correlation computed between successive horizontal plane maps of aerosol backscattering, assembled from three-dimensional lidar scans. Prior to calculation of the correlation function, three crucial steps are performed: (1) the scans are corrected for image distortion by the wind during a finite scan time; (2) a temporal high pass median filtering is applied to eliminate structures that do not move with the wind; and (3) a histogram equalization is employed to reduce biases to the brightest features.

Schols, J. L.↗