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NASA NTRS1994

Structure of merger remnants. 4: Isophotal shapes

This paper examines the shapes of isophotes of galaxy merger remnants. More specifically, we perform a series of numerical experiments to study galaxy mergers. The simulations explore a variety of encounter geometries, types of progenitor galaxies, and particle numbers. We 'observe' each of the remnants from 64 viewpoints to estimate how the isophotal shapes vary with the orientation of the remnant. Also, by comparing the results from the various simulations, we learn how encounter geometry and the structure of the progenitors can affect the shape of the remnants. The encounter geometry, the structure of the progenitors, and the orientation of the remnant play deciding roles in the shape of the 'observed' isophotes, so much so that these simulated merger remnants have both 'boxy' and 'disky' isophotes and ellipticities ranging from E0 to E7. Thus, the shapes seen in our merger simulation remnants span a similar range to observed isophotal shapes of real galaxies. Furthermore, to estimate the errors in this analysis, we introduce the statistical bootstrap. Bootstrapping is used rather widely in observational astronomy when dealing with small samples; however, its use is practically unheard of for tackling theoretical problems. We believe that bootstrapping can be extremely useful for dealing with the small samples found in numerical simulations; therefore, we present the rudiments and basis of the technique with emphasis on its use in N-body calculations. Also, by comparing the errors for the smaller simulations with those of the larger ones, we speculate on the number of particles required to accurately explore isophotal shapes in simulations.

Heyl, Jeremy S.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Mineralogy of the Solar System

The coming decade will witnesses the first sample return missions from solar system bodies in 30 years. These samples will all be very small, some missions return only a few milligrams of total mass. Fortunately, the capability of modem methods to characterize ultra-small samples is well established from analysis of interplanetary dust particles (IDPs), interstellar grains recovered from meteorites, and other materials requiring ultra-sensitive analytical capabilities. Powerful analytical techniques are available that require, under favorable circumstances, single particles of only a few nanograms for entire suites of fairly comprehensive characterizations. A returned sample of greater than 1,000 particles with total mass of just one microgram permits comprehensive quantitative geochemical measurements that are impractical to can-y out in situ by flight instruments. With the Galileo flybys of Gaspra and Ida, it is now recognized that even very small airless bodies have indeed developed a particulate regolith. Acquiring a sample of the bulk regolith, a simple sampling strategy, provides two critical pieces of information about the body. Regolith samples are excellent bulk samples since they normally contain all the key components of the local environment, albeit in particulate form. Furthermore, since this fine fraction dominates remote measurements, regolith samples also provide information about surface alteration processes and are a key link to remote sensing of other bodies. Studies indicate that a statistically significant number of nanogram-sized particles should be able to characterize the regolith of a primitive asteroid, although the presence of larger components within even primitive meteorites (e.g.. Murchison), e.g. chondrules, CAI, large crystal fragments, etc., points out the limitations of using data obtained from nanogram-sized samples to characterize entire primitive asteroids. However, most important asteroidal geological processes have left their mark on the matrix, since this is the finest-grained portion and therefore most sensitive to chemical and physical changes. Thus, the following information can be learned from this fine grain size fraction alone: (1) mineral paragenesis; (2) regolith processes, (3) bulk composition; (4) conditions of thermal and aqueous alteration (if any); (5) relationships to planets, comets, meteorites (via isotopic analyses, including oxygen; (6) abundance of water and hydrated material; (7) abundance of organics; (8) history of volatile mobility, (9) presence and origin of presolar and/or interstellar material.

Zolensky, Michael E.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure and guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. The theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be 4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Launch Vehicle↗
NASA NTRS2019

Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure or guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. Although the theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be in reasonable agreement (4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively) the underlying sub-root cause scoring had significant disparities attributable to significant organizational changes and acquisitions. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Craig H Williams↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning (ML) Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), typically limits machine learning (ML) approaches in spaceflight studies that include radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) data from six mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) (n ranging from 6 to 39 samples) from with a total of 81 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features (i.e. genes) relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. RNASeq counts were normalized for each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. Redundancy and relevance were computed using the Pearson correlation and F-statistic, respectively. The top 100 MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers with 5-fold cross validation (CV). Principal component analysis (PCA) on the complete feature set versus the MRMR features shows separation between spaceflight samples and ground controls (Figure 1A). The ML-based gene sets were compared against differential gene expression results obtained with DESeq2 from individual GLDS. Using all features or randomly sampled subsets at matching set sizes with MRMR, a maximum classifier accuracy of 69% on the test set over 5 folds. For all classifiers, CV training using at least the top 30 MRMR genes show minimum 89% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the test set over 5 folds (Figure 1B). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 295 DEGs that overlap at least two studies and 13 DEGs that overlap three studies (Figure 1C). Set analysis between the top 100 MRMR features and the DEGs showed 47 genes that overlap at least one study and 24 genes that overlap two studies. Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism which may indicate these processes in the response to spaceflight stressors. MRMR feature selection for the selected ML methods improve performance relative to a classifier built on all features or randomly sampled subsets. Permutation feature importance within the decorrelated MRMR features showed concordance in feature ranking between ML methods. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from DESeq2 analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore genes relevant to differentiating space flight exposed groups and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations.

Machine Learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), typically limits machine learning (ML) approaches in spaceflight studies that include radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) data from six mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) (n ranging from 6 to 39 samples) from with a total of 81 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features (i.e. genes) relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. RNASeq counts were normalized for each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. Redundancy and relevance were computed using the Pearson correlation and F-statistic, respectively. The top 100 MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers with 5-fold cross validation (CV). Principal component analysis (PCA) on the complete feature set versus the MRMR features shows separation between spaceflight samples and ground controls (Figure 1A). The ML-based gene sets were compared against differential gene expression results obtained with DESeq2 from individual GLDS. Using all features or randomly sampled subsets at matching set sizes with MRMR, a maximum classifier accuracy of 69% was shown on the test set over 5 folds. For all classifiers, CV training using at least the top 30 MRMR genes show minimum 89% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the test set over 5 folds (Figure 1B). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 295 DEGs that overlap at least two studies and 13 DEGs that overlap three studies (Figure 1C). Set analysis between the top 100 MRMR features and the DEGs showed 47 genes that overlap at least one study and 24 genes that overlap two studies. Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism which may indicate these processes in the response to spaceflight stressors. MRMR feature selection for the selected ML methods improve performance relative to a classifier built on all features or randomly sampled subsets. Permutation feature importance within the decorrelated MRMR features showed concordance in feature ranking between ML methods. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from DESeq2 analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore genes relevant to differentiating space flight exposed groups and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations.

Machine Learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), typically limits machine learning (ML) approaches in spaceflight studies that include radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) data from six mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) (n ranging from 6 to 39 samples) from with a total of 81 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features (i.e. genes) relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. RNASeq counts were normalized for each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. Redundancy and relevance were computed using the Pearson correlation and F-statistic, respectively. The top 100 MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers with 5-fold cross validation (CV). Principal component analysis (PCA) on the complete feature set versus the MRMR features shows separation between spaceflight samples and ground controls (Figure 1A). The ML-based gene sets were compared against differential gene expression results obtained with DESeq2 from individual GLDS. Using all features or randomly sampled subsets at matching set sizes with MRMR, a maximum classifier accuracy of 69% was shown on the test set over 5 folds. For all classifiers, CV training using at least the top 30 MRMR genes show minimum 89% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the test set over 5 folds (Figure 1B). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 295 DEGs that overlap at least two studies and 13 DEGs that overlap three studies (Figure 1C). Set analysis between the top 100 MRMR features and the DEGs showed 47 genes that overlap at least one study and 24 genes that overlap two studies. Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism which may indicate these processes in the response to spaceflight stressors. MRMR feature selection for the selected ML methods improve performance relative to a classifier built on all features or randomly sampled subsets. Permutation feature importance within the decorrelated MRMR features showed concordance in feature ranking between ML methods. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from DESeq2 analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore genes relevant to differentiating space flight exposed groups and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations.

Machine Learning↗
NASA NTRS2013

Parachute Models Used in the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Simulation

An end-to-end simulation of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry, descent, and landing (EDL) sequence was created at the NASA Langley Research Center using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2). This simulation is capable of providing numerous MSL system and flight software responses, including Monte Carlo-derived statistics of these responses. The MSL POST2 simulation includes models of EDL system elements, including those related to the parachute system. Among these there are models for the parachute geometry, mass properties, deployment, inflation, opening force, area oscillations, aerodynamic coefficients, apparent mass, interaction with the main landing engines, and off-loading. These models were kept as simple as possible, considering the overall objectives of the simulation. The main purpose of this paper is to describe these parachute system models to the extent necessary to understand how they work and some of their limitations. A list of lessons learned during the development of the models and simulation is provided. Future improvements to the parachute system models are proposed.

Cruz, Juan R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Tracking and Establishing Provenance of Earth Science Datasets: A NASA-based Example

Information quality is of paramount importance to science. Accurate, scientifically vetted and statistically meaningful and, ideally, reproducible information engenders scientific trust and research opportunities. Therefore, so-called Highly Influential Scientific Assessments (HISA) such as the U.S. Third National Climate Assessment undergo a very rigorous process to ensure transparency and credibility. As an activity to support the transparency of such reports, the U.S. Global Change Research Program has developed the Global Change Information System (GCIS). Specifically related to the transparency of NCA3, a recent activity was carried out to trace the provenance as completely as possible for all figures in the NCA3 report that predominantly used NASA data. This paper discusses lessons learned from this activity that trace the provenance of NASA figures in a major HISA-class pdf report.

Ramapriyan, Hampapuram K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

STEM Education Efforts in the Ares Projects

According to the National Science Foundation, of the more than 4 million first university degrees awarded in science and engineering in 2006, students in China earned about 21%, those in the European Union earned about 19%, and those in the United States earned about 11%. Statistics like these are of great interest to NASA's Ares Projects, which are responsible for building the rockets for the U.S. Constellation Program to send humans beyond low-Earth orbit. Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics students are essential for the long-term sustainability of any space program. Since the Projects creation, the Ares Outreach Team has used a variety of STEM-related media, methods, and materials to engage students, educators, and the general public in Constellation's mission. Like Project Apollo, the nation s exploration destinations and the vehicles used to get there can inspire students to learn more about STEM. Ares has been particularly active in public outreach to schools in Northern Alabama; on the Internet via outreach and grade-specific educational materials; and in more informal social media settings such as YouTube and Facebook. These combined efforts remain integral to America s space program, regardless of its future direction.

Doreswamy, Rajiv↗
NASA NTRS2022

Multisensor Machine Learning to Retrieve High Spatiotemporal Resolution Land Surface Temperature

Climate change is making heat waves more frequent, long-lasting, and severe. While multiple satellite types provide data to monitor surface temperature, geostationary (GEO) sensors provide near-continuous, continental-scale observations which can better capture the diurnal variability of land surface temperature (LST) than intermittent observations from low-earth orbit (LEO) sensors. However, standard products from GEO satellites are available at coarsened spatial and temporal resolutions compared to the native sensor resolution. Using datasets from the NASA Earth Exchange, we leveraged co-located, co-temporal observations from LEO and GEO satellites to learn a data-driven mapping using a convolutional neural network. The resulting NASA Earth eXchange Artificial Intelligence LST (NEXAI-LST) achieved a mean absolute error of 1.73 K relative to the target LEO product and improves on both spatial and temporal resolution [2 km, 10 minute] compared to the GEO full disk standard product [10 km, hourly]. In validation against measurements from a ground-based sensor network, NEXAI-LST achieves similar or better fit than both LEO and GEO standard products, while depending none of the prior knowledge of land surface and atmospheric states required by physical-statistical models. Further, application of the model to unseen LEO and GEO satellites demonstrates robust generalization of the model across spatial region, time of day, and sensor. In support of NASA’s open-source science initiative, we make our NEXAI-LST product, model, and codes available to facilitate data exploration and further studies.

Kate Marie Duffy↗
NASA NTRS2018

Learning Model Structural Uncertainty with Gaussian Processes

The advent of commercially available quantum computers has marked the beginning of quantum computing as a reality. Both quantum gate and annealing computers have been released by major computer hardware companies. In this work, the D-Wave 2XTM quantum annealing computer housed at the NASA Advanced Systems computational facility is investigated to accelerate Machine Learning (ML) for image registration. NASA collects large amounts of images over the globe remotely using space-based monitoring. Images of a fixed areas of the land surface are taken over time. Due to the orbit of the sensors, the viewing angles deviate slightly, and it is necessary to align or register the images precisely to create image time series over the land surface. Unaligned images can lead to substantial analysis errors. These time-series are then used in modeling Earth Systems models such as hydrological, weather, and carbon monitoring models. In this work, we consider the Moderate Resolution Image Spectrometer (MODIS) data collected by the NASA's terra satellite. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is a natural fit for ML modelling of images. Several successes have been reported using machine learning related to image processing. We investigate the use of ML to register MODIS images. ANNs are investigated in combination with a Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM) as an auto-encoder. We will present results showing the accuracy and efficiency of this approach.The D-Wave 2XTM quantum annealer samples the ground-state wave-function of a spin-Ising systems with quadratic interactions between qubits and a Chimera connectivity. The system sits in a ~15 mK thermal bath. One can think of the system as being placed in the ground state initially and subject to thermal excitations governed by Boltzmann statistics. If this is assumed true, one can use the statistics from the D-Wave 2XTM to train RBMs. Generating statistics for training Boltzmann machines is an NP-hard problem and constitutes the largest compute cost. We investigate the use of the D-Wave 2XTM to accelerate the training of the RBMs in our ANNs and report on the results.

Kouatchou, Jules↗
NASA NTRS2006

Modification of Eccentric Gaze-Holding

Clear vision and accurate localization of objects in the environment are prerequisites for reliable performance of motor tasks. Space flight confronts the crewmember with a stimulus rearrangement that requires adaptation to function effectively with the new requirements of altered spatial orientation and motor coordination. Adaptation and motor learning driven by the effects of cerebellar disorders may share some of the same demands that face our astronauts. One measure of spatial localization shared by the astronauts and those suffering from cerebellar disorders that is easily quantified, and for which a neurobiological substrate has been identified, is the control of the angle of gaze (the "line of sight"). The disturbances of gaze control that have been documented to occur in astronauts and cosmonauts, both in-flight and postflight, can be directly related to changes in the extrinsic gravitational environment and intrinsic proprioceptive mechanisms thus, lending themselves to description by simple non-linear statistical models. Because of the necessity of developing robust normal response populations and normative populations against which abnormal responses can be evaluated, the basic models can be formulated using normal, non-astronaut test subjects and subsequently extended using centrifugation techniques to alter the gravitational and proprioceptive environment of these subjects. Further tests and extensions of the models can be made by studying abnormalities of gaze control in patients with cerebellar disease. A series of investigations were conducted in which a total of 62 subjects were tested to: (1) Define eccentric gaze-holding parameters in a normative population, and (2) explore the effects of linear acceleration on gaze-holding parameters. For these studies gaze-holding was evaluated with the subjects seated upright (the normative values), rolled 45 degrees to both the left and right, or pitched back 30 and 90 degrees. In a separate study the further effects of acceleration on gaze stability was examined during centrifugation (+2 G (sub x) and +2 G (sub z) using a total of 23 subjects. In all of our investigations eccentric gaze-holding was established by having the subjects acquire an eccentric target (+/-30 degrees horizontal, +/- 15 degrees vertical) that was flashed for 750 msec in an otherwise dark room. Subjects were instructed to hold gaze on the remembered position of the flashed target for 20 sec. Immediately following the 20 sec period, subjects were cued to return to the remembered center position and to hold gaze there for an additional 20 sec. Following this 20 sec period the center target was briefly flashed and the subject made any corrective eye movement back to the true center position. Conventionally, the ability to hold eccentric gaze is estimated by fitting the natural log of centripetal eye drifts by linear regression and calculating the time constant (G) of these slow phases of "gaze-evoked nystagmus". However, because our normative subjects sometimes showed essentially no drift (tau (sub c) = m), statistical estimation and inference on the effect of target direction was performed on values of the decay constant theta = 1/(tau (sub c)) which we found was well modeled by a gamma distribution. Subjects showed substantial variance of their eye drifts, which were centrifugal in approximately 20 % of cases, and > 40% for down gaze. Using the ensuing estimated gamma distributions, we were able to conclude that rightward and leftward gaze holding were not significantly different, but that upward gaze holding was significantly worse than downward (p<0.05). We also concluded that vertical gaze holding was significantly worse than horizontal (p<0.05). In the case of left and right roll, we found that both had a similar improvement to horizontal gaze holding (p<0.05), but didn't have a significant effect on vertical gaze holding. For pitch tilts, both tilt angles significantly decreased gaze-holding ility in all directions (p<0.05). Finally, we found that hyper-g centrifugation significantly decreased gaze holding ability in the vertical plane. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) vertical gaze-holding is less stable than horizontal, (2) gaze-holding to upward targets is less stable than to downward targets, (3) tilt affects gaze holding, and (4) hyper-g affects gaze holding. This difference between horizontal and vertical gaze-holding may be ascribed to separate components of the velocity-to-position neural integrator for eye movements, and to differences in orbital mechanics. The differences between upward and downward gaze-holding may be ascribed to an inherent vertical imbalance in the vestibular system. Because whole body tilt and hyper-g affects gaze-holding, it is implied that the otolith organs have direct connections to the neural integrator and further studies of astronaut gaze-holding are warranted. Our statistical method for representing the range of normal eccentric gaze stability can be readily applied to normals who maybe exposed to environments which may modify the central integrator and require monitoring, and to evaluate patients with gaze-evoked nystagmus by comparing to the above established normative criteria.

Reschke, M. F.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parameterization of Vertical Cloud Distribution from C3M and MERRA Data Using ML Method

Clouds play a key role in regulating the hydrological cycle and the Earth's radiative energy budget. However, global climate models (GCMs) with a horizontal grid spacing on the order of 100 km have limitations in representing sub-grid cloud dynamics with spatial scales on the order of 1 km, leading to potential uncertainties in cloud radiative feedback on the global scale. In our research, we will leverage the capabilities of Deep Machine Learning (DML) methods to construct parameterizations of sub-grid volumetric cloud fraction (VCF), which is the frequency of occurrence on a grid volume accumulated in the horizontal and vertical directions. Our investigation delves into the intricate relationship between VCF obtained from the NASA CALIPSO-CloudSat-CERES-MODIS (CCCM) satellite observation data and 3-D MERRA-2 reanalysis meteorological profiling data (e.g., wind, relative humidity, temperature). Through a comprehensive one-year data training utilizing the Sequence to Sequence DML method, we have successfully disentangled the complicated cloud formation dynamics across diverse meteorological conditions through a day-to-day analysis framework. Preliminary findings reveal promising statistical agreements in geographical and vertical distributions and seasonal variations of volumetric cloud fraction between ML prediction and satellite measurements. These results underscore the aptitude of our DML model to discern underlying cloud physical processes and accurately represent sub-grid cloud formation dynamics. Additionally, we have also employed trained neural network to analyze uncertainties arising from errors in meteorological data, further enhancing the robustness of our VCF parameterization.

Shan Zeng↗
NASA NTRS2004

Fast Query-Optimized Kernel-Machine Classification

A recently developed algorithm performs kernel-machine classification via incremental approximate nearest support vectors. The algorithm implements support-vector machines (SVMs) at speeds 10 to 100 times those attainable by use of conventional SVM algorithms. The algorithm offers potential benefits for classification of images, recognition of speech, recognition of handwriting, and diverse other applications in which there are requirements to discern patterns in large sets of data. SVMs constitute a subset of kernel machines (KMs), which have become popular as models for machine learning and, more specifically, for automated classification of input data on the basis of labeled training data. While similar in many ways to k-nearest-neighbors (k-NN) models and artificial neural networks (ANNs), SVMs tend to be more accurate. Using representations that scale only linearly in the numbers of training examples, while exploring nonlinear (kernelized) feature spaces that are exponentially larger than the original input dimensionality, KMs elegantly and practically overcome the classic curse of dimensionality. However, the price that one must pay for the power of KMs is that query-time complexity scales linearly with the number of training examples, making KMs often orders of magnitude more computationally expensive than are ANNs, decision trees, and other popular machine learning alternatives. The present algorithm treats an SVM classifier as a special form of a k-NN. The algorithm is based partly on an empirical observation that one can often achieve the same classification as that of an exact KM by using only small fraction of the nearest support vectors (SVs) of a query. The exact KM output is a weighted sum over the kernel values between the query and the SVs. In this algorithm, the KM output is approximated with a k-NN classifier, the output of which is a weighted sum only over the kernel values involving k selected SVs. Before query time, there are gathered statistics about how misleading the output of the k-NN model can be, relative to the outputs of the exact KM for a representative set of examples, for each possible k from 1 to the total number of SVs. From these statistics, there are derived upper and lower thresholds for each step k. These thresholds identify output levels for which the particular variant of the k-NN model already leans so strongly positively or negatively that a reversal in sign is unlikely, given the weaker SV neighbors still remaining. At query time, the partial output of each query is incrementally updated, stopping as soon as it exceeds the predetermined statistical thresholds of the current step. For an easy query, stopping can occur as early as step k = 1. For more difficult queries, stopping might not occur until nearly all SVs are touched. A key empirical observation is that this approach can tolerate very approximate nearest-neighbor orderings. In experiments, SVs and queries were projected to a subspace comprising the top few principal- component dimensions and neighbor orderings were computed in that subspace. This approach ensured that the overhead of the nearest-neighbor computations was insignificant, relative to that of the exact KM computation.

Mazzoni, Dominic↗
NASA NTRS2019

Design Thinking for the Applied Sciences: Developing a Novel Approach to Encourage the Use of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Open Source Tools for Forest Monitoring

Earth observations from Synthetic Aperture Radar, or SAR, have yet to be fully leveraged for forest monitoring applications. While SAR sensors are uniquely able to capture components of forest structure over optical imagery, especially in cloud-heavy regions, there is a shortage of freely-available applied training materials and related case studies. With the wealth of available datasets from Sentinel-1 and other missions, such as ALOS-Palsar open historical archive, and in preparation for upcoming opendata policy SAR missions (e.g. NISAR and BIOMASS), the applied forestry community would benefit from increased access to relevant, understandable SAR training materials. This work documents lessons learned and best practices for creating EO capacity building/training materials gleaned from the SAR Handbook project. Strategies for increasing legibility for both print and online applications, illustration and editing guidelines for original and modified figures, and the development of quick-reference guides will be shared. Additionally, the conception and use of companion “explainer” videos, using cartoon characters and humor to outline relevant SAR concepts will be explored. Preliminary results indicate the SAR Handbook and supplemental project materials are already having an impact in training sessions. Increased uptake of SAR technologies in SERVIR Hub regions, where Hubs are leading follow-on SAR trainings, has also been noted. In addition, a review of download statistics from the SERVIR global website indicates widespread worldwide access. We conclude similar holistic approaches integrating design concepts into future content development would help increase uptake of EO applications by the earth science community.

Kucera, Leah M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Objectively Identifying Transverse Cirrus Bands in Tropical Cyclones using a Convolutional Neural Network

Transverse cirrus bands (TCBs) are bands of upper-level clouds regularly seen in mesoscale and synoptic-scale weather systems. In tropical cyclones, their appearance has been subjectively linked to intensification and the diurnal cycle. However, these hypothesized relationships have not been rigorously tested due to the subjective nature of TCBs in satellite images. A machine learning technique that successfully identifies TCBs objectively in imagery from the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) has been developed to solve this problem. The technique uses a U-Net convolutional neural network (CNN) that assigns a probability to each pixel in an image based on the likelihood of the pixel being associated with a TCB. Using the U-Net CNN, a database of TCBs from 2019 to 2022 was developed for the Atlantic tropical cyclone basin by defining an appropriate probability threshold that defines the difference between TCB and non-TCB pixels. This threshold is where the Jaccard score, calculated using manually identified TCBs and model identified TCBs, is maximized. Statistics for TCB occurrence will also be presented, including the relationships between TCBs and storm relative motion, shear relative direction, cardinal direction, tropical cyclone intensity, tropical cyclone intensification rates, and time of day.

John Mark Mayhall↗
NASA NTRS2004

Exploring New Pathways in Precipitation Assimilation

Precipitation assimilation poses a special challenge in that the forward model for rain in a global forecast system is based on parameterized physics, which can have large systematic errors that must be rectified to use precipitation data effectively within a standard statistical analysis framework. We examine some key issues in precipitation assimilation and describe several exploratory studies in assimilating rainfall and latent heating information in NASA's global data assimilation systems using the forecast model as a weak constraint. We present results from two research activities. The first is the assimilation of surface rainfall data using a time-continuous variational assimilation based on a column model of the full moist physics. The second is the assimilation of convective and stratiform latent heating retrievals from microwave sensors using a variational technique with physical parameters in the moist physics schemes as a control variable. We will show the impact of assimilating these data on analyses and forecasts. Among the lessons learned are (1) that the time-continuous application of moisture/temperature tendency corrections to mitigate model deficiencies offers an effective strategy for assimilating precipitation information, and (2) that the model prognostic variables must be allowed to directly respond to an improved rain and latent heating field within an analysis cycle to reap the full benefit of assimilating precipitation information. of microwave radiances versus retrieval information in raining areas, and initial efforts in developing ensemble techniques such as Kalman filter/smoother for precipitation assimilation. Looking to the future, we discuss new research directions including the assimilation

Hou, Arthur↗