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Results for “Stochastic Modeling and Simulation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

The global resurfacing of Venus

The impact cratering record on Venus is unique among the terrestrial planets. Fully 84% of the craters are in pristine condition, and only 12% are fractured. Remarkably, only 2.5% of the craters and crater-related features are embayed by lava, although intense volcanism and tectonism have affected the entire planet. Furthermore, the spatial and hypsometric distribution of the craters is consistent with a completely random one, including stochastic variations. Monte Carlo simulations of equilibrium resurfacing models result in a minimum of 17 times more embayed craters than observed, or unobserved nonrandom crater distributions for resurfacing areas between 0.03% and 100% of the planet's surface. These models also are not consistent with the number and nonrandom distribution of volcanoes, and the nonrandom distribution of embayed and heavily fractured craters. The constraints imposed by the cratering record strongly indicate that Venus experienced a global resurfacing event about 300 m.y. ago followed by a dramatic reduction of volcanism and tectonism. This global resurfacing event ended abruptly (less than 10 m.y.). The present crater population has accumulated since then and remains largely intact. Thermal history models suggest that similar global resurfacing events probably occured episodically in the past. We show that neither the present level and style of geologic activity nor anything less than global resurfacing could have produced the observed cratering record. The effects of recent geologic activity are much less than those of the earlier global resurfacing event, when the record of all the early heavy bombardment and much of the later light bombardment was erased from the surface by massive volcanism and tectonic activity. Episodic regional resurfacing events that had global effects also occurred on Earth (e.g., the mid-Cretaceous superplume) and probably on Mars. On Mars they may have triggered the catastrophic releases of water that formed the outflow channels.

Strom, Robert G.↗
DOE OSTI2011

Multinomial diffusion equation

We describe a new, microscopic model for diffusion that captures diffusion induced uctuations at scales where the concept of concentration gives way to discrete par- ticles. We show that in the limit as the number of particles N ! 1, our model is equivalent to the classical stochastic diffusion equation (SDE). We test our new model and the SDE against Langevin dynamics in numerical simulations, and show that our model successfully reproduces the correct ensemble statistics, while the classical model fails.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2012

Stochastic Methods for Planning and Operating Power Systems with Large Amounts of Wind and Solar Power: Preprint

Wind and solar generators differ in their generation characteristics than conventional generators. The variable output and imperfect predictability of these generators face a stochastic approach to plan and operate the power system without fundamentally changing the operation and planning problems. This paper overviews stochastic modeling challenges in operations, generation planning, andtransmission planning, with references to current industry and academic work. Different stochastic problem formulations, including approximations, are also discussed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of a nuclear thermal propulsion reactor startup sequence

The research presented in this article describes progress in applying stochastic methods, uncertainty quantification, parametric studies, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated via the radiation transport code Griffin to simulate neutronics. Our goal is to develop a reduced-order (surrogate) model that can be rapidly sampled with perturbations to multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums (CDs), which is itself controlled by a hybrid proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time [Λ] and effective delayed neutron fraction [ β eff ] from a transient Griffin simulation executed via Griffin’s improved quasi-static solver to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions that control the CD rotation angle. By investigating numerous stochastic approaches, we developed a dual-purpose surrogate model of the NTP system, using polynomial regression in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Stochastic Tools Module (STM). The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters, such as coefficients on the PID control or temperature (directly affecting the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate (within 5%) results at speeds orders of magnitude faster (minutes, not days of computational time) than the base model. Once the surrogate model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs as well as the effects of these inputs on the model output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some type of physical interference, or uncertainty may exist in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters, and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system for operating CDs in a functioning NTP system. This work is a scoping study of the MOOSE STM.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Maxwell-Bloch equations for modeling amplified spontaneous emission

An approach for studying atom-radiation interaction has been developed, associating quantum operators with stochastic variables governed by discrete Heisenberg equations. This framework models general multilevel atomic systems using the paraxial approximation in both single- and multipass configurations. Simulation results for x-ray laser oscillators with parameters of interest are presented. Finally, the stochastic model is efficient to solve, as the required computational resources scale linearly with the number of emitters, and it may be applicable to various other quantum systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evaluation of stochastic particle dispersion modeling in turbulent round jets

ODT (one-dimensional turbulence) simulations of particle-carrier gas interactions are performed in the jet flow configuration. Particles with different diameters are injected onto the centerline of a turbulent air jet. The particles are passive and do not impact the fluid phase. Their radial dispersion and axial velocities are obtained as functions of axial position. The time and length scales of the jet are varied through control of the jet exit velocity and nozzle diameter. Dispersion data at long times of flight for the nozzle diameter (7 mm), particle diameters (60 and 90 µm), and Reynolds numbers (10, 000–30, 000) are analyzed to obtain the Lagrangian particle dispersivity. Flow statistics of the ODT particle model are compared to experimental measurements. It is shown that the particle tracking method is capable of yielding Lagrangian prediction of the dispersive transport of particles in a round jet. In this study, three particle-eddy interaction models (Type-I, -C, and -IC) are presented to examine the details of particle dispersion and particle-eddy interaction in jet flow.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

A computational model to generate simulated three-dimensional breast masses

Purpose: To develop algorithms for creating realistic three-dimensional (3D) simulated breast masses and embedding them within actual clinical mammograms. The proposed techniques yield high-resolution simulated breast masses having randomized shapes, with user-defined mass type, size, location, and shape characteristics. Methods: The authors describe a method of producing 3D digital simulations of breast masses and a technique for embedding these simulated masses within actual digitized mammograms. Simulated 3D breast masses were generated by using a modified stochastic Gaussian random sphere model to generate a central tumor mass, and an iterative fractal branching algorithm to add complex spicule structures. The simulated masses were embedded within actual digitized mammograms. The authors evaluated the realism of the resulting hybrid phantoms by generating corresponding left- and right-breast image pairs, consisting of one breast image containing a real mass, and the opposite breast image of the same patient containing a similar simulated mass. The authors then used computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) methods and expert radiologist readers to determine whether significant differences can be observed between the real and hybrid images. Results: The authors found no statistically significant difference between the CAD features obtained from the real and simulated images of masses with either spiculated or nonspiculated margins. Likewise, the authors found that expert human readers performed very poorly in discriminating their hybrid images from real mammograms. Conclusions: The authors’ proposed method permits the realistic simulation of 3D breast masses having user-defined characteristics, enabling the creation of a large set of hybrid breast images containing a well-characterized mass, embedded within real breast background. The computational nature of the model makes it suitable for detectability studies, evaluation of computer aided diagnosis algorithms, and teaching purposes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Status on the Development of a Modeling and Simulation Framework for the Economic Assessment of Nuclear Hybrid Energy

Continued effort to design and build a modeling and simulation framework to assess the economic viability of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems (NHES) was undertaken in fiscal year (FY) 2016. The purpose of this report is to document the various tasks associated with the development of such a framework and to provide a status of their progress. Several tasks have been accomplished. First, a synthetic time history generator has been developed in RAVEN, which consists of Fourier series and autoregressive moving average model. The former is used to capture the seasonal trend in historical data, while the latter is to characterize the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements with seasonal trends subtracted). As demonstration, both synthetic wind speed and grid demand are generated, showing matching statistics with database. In order to build a design and operations optimizer in RAVEN, a new type of sampler has been developed with highly object-oriented design. In particular, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation algorithm is implemented. The optimizer is capable to drive the model to optimize a scalar objective function without constraint in the input space, while the constraints handling is a work in progress and will be implemented to improve the optimization capability. Furthermore, a simplified cash flow model of the performance of an NHES in the electric market has been developed in Python and used as external model in RAVEN to confirm expectations on the analysis capability of RAVEN to provide insight into system economics and to test the capability of RAVEN to identify limit surfaces. Finally, an example calculation is performed that shows the integration and proper data passing in RAVEN of the synthetic time history generator, the cash flow model and the optimizer. It has been shown that the developed Python models external to RAVEN are able to communicate with RAVEN and each other through the newly developed RAVEN capability called “EnsembleModel”.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Galileo spacecraft high gain antenna offset calibration

A mathematical model for the estimation of the dual-spin Galileo spacecraft high gain antenna misalignment is developed. The feasibility of the proposed technique is investigated by means of a simulation study. In-flight parameter estimation requires the development of a stochastic model of the spacecraft rotational biases and the earth-received signal strength measurements. The signal strength measurements for X-band frequency are used as observations to estimate the rotational biases and their corresponding uncertainties. The simulation study shows that the initial ground measured uncertainties of .6 mrad can be reduced by a factor of ten.

Hayati, S. A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fluctuating hydrodynamics and the Rayleigh–Plateau instability

The Rayleigh–Plateau instability occurs when surface tension makes a fluid column become unstable to small perturbations. At nanometer scales, thermal fluctuations are comparable to interfacial energy densities. Consequently, at these scales, thermal fluctuations play a significant role in the dynamics of the instability. These microscopic effects have previously been investigated numerically using particle-based simulations, such as molecular dynamics (MD), and stochastic partial differential equation–based hydrodynamic models, such as stochastic lubrication theory. In this paper, we present an incompressible fluctuating hydrodynamics model with a diffuse-interface formulation for binary fluid mixtures designed for the study of stochastic interfacial phenomena. An efficient numerical algorithm is outlined and validated in numerical simulations of stable equilibrium interfaces. We present results from simulations of the Rayleigh–Plateau instability for long cylinders pinching into droplets for Ohnesorge numbers of Oh = 0.5 and 5.0. Both stochastic and perturbed deterministic simulations are analyzed and ensemble results show significant differences in the temporal evolution of the minimum radius near pinching. Short cylinders, with lengths less than their circumference, were also investigated. As previously observed in MD simulations, we find that thermal fluctuations cause these to pinch in cases where a perturbed cylinder would be stable deterministically. Finally, we show that the fluctuating hydrodynamics model can be applied to study a broader range of surface tension–driven phenomena.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

An iterative stochastic ensemble method for parameter estimation of subsurface flow models

Parameter estimation for subsurface flow models is an essential step for maximizing the value of numerical simulations for future prediction and the development of effective control strategies. We propose the iterative stochastic ensemble method (ISEM) as a general method for parameter estimation based on stochastic estimation of gradients using an ensemble of directional derivatives. ISEM eliminates the need for adjoint coding and deals with the numerical simulator as a blackbox. The proposed method employs directional derivatives within a Gauss–Newton iteration. The update equation in ISEM resembles the update step in ensemble Kalman filter, however the inverse of the output covariance matrix in ISEM is regularized using standard truncated singular value decomposition or Tikhonov regularization. We also investigate the performance of a set of shrinkage based covariance estimators within ISEM. The proposed method is successfully applied on several nonlinear parameter estimation problems for subsurface flow models. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by the small size of utilized ensembles and in terms of error convergence rates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Temporal Coherence: A Model for Non-Stationarity in Natural and Simulated Wind Records

We present a novel methodology for characterizing and simulating non-stationary stochastic wind records. In this new method, non-stationarity is characterized and modelled via temporal coherence, which is quantified in the discrete frequency domain by probability distributions of the differences in phase between adjacent Fourier components. Temporal coherence can also be used to quantify non-stationary characteristics in wind data. Three case studies are presented that analyze the non-stationarity of turbulent wind data obtained at the National Wind Technology Center near Boulder, Colorado, USA. The first study compares the temporal and spectral characteristics of a stationary wind record and a non-stationary wind record in order to highlight their differences in temporal coherence. The second study examines the distribution of one of the proposed temporal coherence parameters and uses it to quantify the prevalence of nonstationarity in the dataset. The third study examines how temporal coherence varies with a range of atmospheric parameters to determine what conditions produce more non-stationarity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wake-Resolving Acoustic Tomography: Advances through Numerical Covariance Methods

Acoustic tomography offers path-integrated measurements of atmospheric velocity and temperature fluctuations with high spatial resolution. Classical implementations of time-dependent stochastic inversion rely on homogeneous, isotropic covariance models that are poorly suited to the anisotropic structure of wind turbine wakes. By directly estimating heterogeneous covariances from large-eddy simulations (LESs) into the time-dependent stochastic inversion operator, we relax implicit assumptions in the analytical models used historically. Retrievals using these LES-informed models improve agreement with true fields in variance, turbulent kinetic energy, and spectral content compared to analytical and precursor-based covariance models. The results indicate that LES-informed covariance models can enhance the accuracy of acoustic tomography retrievals in complex, anisotropic flows such as wind turbine wakes in some cases and highlight instances where analytical models still offer competitive performance, despite their simplifying assumptions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

cDPD: A new dissipative particle dynamics method for modeling electrokinetic phenomena at the mesoscale

In this work, we develop a “charged” dissipative particle dynamics (cDPD) model for simulating mesoscopic electrokinetic phenomena governed by the stochastic Poisson-Nernst-Planck and the Navier-Stokes equations. In particular, the transport equations of ionic species are incorporated into the DPD framework by introducing extra degrees of freedom and corresponding evolution equations associated with each DPD particle. Diffusion of ionic species driven by the ionic concentration gradient, electrostatic potential gradient, and thermal fluctuations is captured accurately via pairwise fluxes between DPD particles. The electrostatic potential is obtained by solving the Poisson equation on the moving DPD particles iteratively at each time step. For charged surfaces in bounded systems, an effective boundary treatment methodology is developed for imposing both the correct hydrodynamic and electrokinetics boundary conditions in cDPD simulations. To validate the proposed cDPD model and the corresponding boundary conditions, we first study the electrostatic structure in the vicinity of a charged solid surface, i.e., we perform cDPD simulations of the electrostatic double layer and show that our results are in good agreement with the well-known mean-field theoretical solutions. Furthermore, we simulate the electrostatic structure and capacity densities between charged parallel plates in salt solutions with different salt concentrations. Moreover, we employ the proposed methodology to study the electro-osmotic and electro-osmotic/pressure-driven flows in a micro-channel. In the latter case, we simulate the dilute poly-electrolyte solution drifting by electro-osmotic flow in a micro-channel, hence demonstrating the flexibility and capability of this method in studying complex fluids with electrostatic interactions at the micro- and nano-scales.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2011

Physically consistent simulation of mesoscale chemical kinetics: The non-negative FIS-{alpha} method

Biochemical pathways involving chemical kinetics in medium concentrations (i.e., at mesoscale) of the reacting molecules can be approximated as chemical Langevin equations (CLE) systems. We address the physically consistent non-negative simulation of the CLE sample paths as well as the issue of non-Lipschitz diffusion coefficients when a species approaches depletion and any stiffness due to faster reactions. The non-negative Fully Implicit Stochastic {alpha} (FIS {alpha}) method in which stopped reaction channels due to depleted reactants are deleted until a reactant concentration rises again, for non-negativity preservation and in which a positive definite Jacobian is maintained to deal with possible stiffness, is proposed and analysed. The method is illustrated with the computation of active Protein Kinase C response in the Protein Kinase C pathway.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Stochastic Mixing in Idealized Convection-Permitting Simulations of Squall Lines

This study investigates impacts of altering subgrid-scale mixing in “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale horizontal-grid-spacing (Δ h ) simulations by applying either constant or stochastic multiplicative factors to the horizontal mixing coefficients within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. In quasi-idealized 1-km Δ h simulations of two observationally based squall-line cases, constant enhanced mixing produces larger updraft cores that are more dilute at upper levels, weakens the cold pool, rear-inflow jet, and front-to-rear flow of the squall line, and degrades the model’s effective resolution. Reducing mixing by a constant multiplicative factor has the opposite effect on all metrics. Completely turning off parameterized horizontal mixing produces bulk updraft statistics and squall-line mesoscale structure closest to an LES “benchmark” among all 1-km simulations, although the updraft cores are too undilute. The stochastic mixing scheme, which applies a multiplicative factor to the mixing coefficients that varies stochastically in time and space, is employed at 0.5-, 1-, and 2-km Δ h . It generally reduces midlevel vertical velocities and enhances upper-level vertical velocities compared to simulations using the standard mixing scheme, with more substantial impacts at 1- and 2-km Δ h compared to 0.5-km Δ h . Further, the stochastic scheme also increases updraft dilution to better agree with the LES for one case, but has less impact on the other case. Stochastic mixing acts to weaken the cold pool but without a significant impact on squall-line propagation. It also does not affect the model’s overall effective resolution unlike applying constant multiplicative factors to the mixing coefficients.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical modeling of a proof-of-principle experiment on optical stochastic cooling at an electron storage ring

Cooling of beams circulating in storage rings is critical for many applications including particle colliders and synchrotron light sources. A method enabling unprecedented beam-cooling rates, optical stochastic cooling (OSC), was recently demonstrated in the Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) electron storage ring at Fermilab [J. Jarvis , ]. This paper describes the numerical implementation of the OSC process in the particle-tracking program and discusses the validation of the developed model with available experimental data. The model is also employed to highlight some features associated with different modes of operation of OSC. The developed simulation tool should be valuable in guiding future configurations of optical stochastic cooling and, more broadly, modeling self-field-based beam manipulations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗