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DOE OSTI2024

End State: Vision for Future Land Use at Hanford

An end state vision is influenced by practical constraints associated with technology limitations, resource availability, costs, timing, and unintended consequences of remedial actions, and a site’s next intended use. Therefore, subsurface environmental remediation goals often need to be balanced against the risks and costs of contaminant removal versus leaving contamination in place. For example, in regions where contaminant concentrations are high but immobile, the intended site use should be evaluated in conjunction with the risk of re-mobilization with an aggressive remedy. By contrast, the technological challenges, cost, and time to reach remedial objectives of cleaning up low levels of contamination distributed over large areas in the subsurface may require different considerations for a site’s next intended use.

environmental remediation, environmental managemen↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low loss fiber-coupled volumetric interconnects fabricated via direct laser writing

Photonic integrated circuits (PICs) are vital for high-speed data transmission. However, optical routing is limited in PICs composed of only one or a few stacked planes. Further, coupling losses must be low in deployed systems. Previously, we developed the subsurface controllable refractive index via beam exposure (SCRIBE) technique to write accurate 3D gradient refractive index (GRIN) profiles within a mesoporous silica scaffold. Here, we apply SCRIBE to fabricate low loss, broadband, polarization insensitive, fiber-coupled, single-mode volumetric interconnects that include waveguides traversing arbitrary 3D paths. By seamlessly integrating mode-matching subsurface lenses and GRIN waveguide tapers, calibrating for positional writing errors, implementing multipass exposure, automating alignment, and switching to antireflection coated fibers, we reduced the insertion loss for a fiber-PIC-fiber interconnect from 50 to 2.14 dB, or 1.47 dB, excluding the fiber array’s loss. Further, we establish an upper bound of 0.45 dB loss per coupler. We report quality factors of 27,000 and 77,000 and bending losses of 6 and 3 dB/cm for 15 and 30 µm radii microrings, respectively. We also demonstrate Bézier escalators, polarization-rotating and polarization-splitting interconnects, and a seven-channel 25 µm pitch volumetric interconnect. The SCRIBE platform presents a clear path toward realizing 3D PICs with unique functionality.

Optics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dataset for scientific paper "Simulated plant‑mediated oxygen input has strong impacts on fine‑scale porewater biogeochemistry and weak impacts on integrated methane fluxes in coastal wetlands", a modeling study based on field observation at the tidal salt marshes of the Parker River Estuary, Massachusetts, United States

This dataset is the raw and processed data for the paper "Simulated plant ‑ mediated oxygen input has strong impacts on fine ‑ scale porewater biogeochemistry and weak impacts on integrated methane fluxes in coastal wetlands". This study investigated how plant-mediated oxygen input affects subsurface biogeochemical reactions of organic carbon degradation and the resulting methane emissions of coastal wetlands by model simulation. We used the subsurface geochemical simulator PFLOTRAN for the modeling, which produced the simulated changes in porewater chemical substances and methane emissions over 10 days under different scenarios of plant-mediated oxygen input.Specifically, this dataset contains: 1) the input files for PFLOTRAN of all simulation runs conducted in this study. Those files are with an extension of ".in", containing information of the biogeochemical reaction network (stoichiometry, reaction rate, Monod constants, etc), fluid flow rate and oxygen concentration in the fluid which together simulated the plant-mediated oxygen input, the configuration of artificial reactions that simulated the methane fluxes, etc. The PFLOTRAN input files are text files, which can be opened by NotePad, but running these input files will require proper installation of PFLOTRAN (instruction: https://documentation.pflotran.org/user_guide/how_to/installation/installation.html). 2) the raw and processed model output from PFLOTRAN of all simulation runs, and 3) the python scripts used to process the raw model output, including random allocation of root cells, converting raw data into organized formats, calculating the methane fluxes based on the model output, data visualization, etc. The raw and processed model output from PFLOTRAN are in .spydata format, which can be viewed with Python. and 3) the python scripts for data processing and analysis are programming scripts, which can be opened with Python.This modeling work, in particular the model parameterization of root density and initial conditions of porewater concentrations of biogeochemical substances, was based on field measurements at the salt marsh of the Upper Parker River Estuary, Massachusetts, United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

NGEE Arctic Integrated Modeling (IM2): Improved subgrid hillslope hydrologic connectivity

This data product represents the integration of new code capability for arctic tundra hillslope hydrologic processes into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), through the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component. This code integration is the result of collaborative effort between the NGEE Arctic project and the E3SM project. The current ELM represents water movement primarily through vertical processes, such as precipitation, canopy interception, evaporation, infiltration, and soil water movement. Lateral water movement—such as surface runoff, subsurface flow, and river transport—plays a significant role in the hydrological cycle, especially in regions with varied topography. While E3SM includes a runoff routing component representing water transport in the river network, the lateral transport of water at the subgrid scale within the land model has previously not been taken into account. With the recent development of topographic units within the ELM subgrid data structure, there is an opportunity to simulate hillslope hydrologic connectivity by introducing water transport along topographic gradients. We expect that more realistic representation of hillslope hydrologic processes will lead to improved predictions of both soil water content and river network flows. Lateral transport of water at and near the surface is represented as a sub-grid process in this new code development. Water is tracked as it moves from higher to lower elevations within a gridcell. This capability uses the nested hierarchical sub-grid scheme within ELM to connect water fluxes from sub-grid elements with higher elevation to those with lower elevation. This data record consists of a single document (pdf format) that describes the theoretical basis for the hillslope hydrology processes added to ELM, and describes the modifications made to the ELM code. The Methods section of this metadata record includes a link to the public E3SM code repository where the exact code modifications as integrated in E3SM can be accessed. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247595158)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data from: “Bald Cypress (Taxodium distichum) Knees Are Methane Sources Controlled by Geomorphology, Climate, and Hydrologic Extremes”

This dataset is associated with the manuscript “Bald Cypress (Taxodium distichum) Knees Are Methane Sources Controlled by Geomorphology, Climate, and Hydrologic Extremes”. Bald cypress “knees” (aboveground woody roots) have been shown to contribute to wetland methane (CH4) efflux, with large variation within and between studies. To explain this variation, we investigated spatial (i.e., across knee surface, within sites, between sites) and temporal dynamics of CH4 fluxes from knees. Methane fluxes were collected from September 2022 to August 2024 at three locations in western Kentucky, USA, within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley: a main channel (semi-permanently flooded), side channel (seasonally flooded), and reservoir edge (artificially flooded). Knee CH4 fluxes (“Ross_et_al_Knee_Flux_Data.csv”) were measured from multiple heights on knees (20, 40, and 60 cm) of various sizes (knee straight height ranged from 24 to 93 cm) using a LiCOR LI-7810 CH4/CO2/H2O Trace Gas Analyzer. The dataset also includes environmental variables collected with each knee measurement, including water level adjusted for knee-to-knee elevational differences, subsurface and air temperature, and humidity. Soil CH4 fluxes (“Ross_et_al_Soil_Flux_Data.csv”) were also collected adjacent to knees (starting in April 2023) when water levels didn’t overtop soil collars, using a LiCOR Smart Chamber and calculated in SoilFluxPro software. The soil flux dataset includes associated variables collected by the Smart Chamber. Three separate files (“*_Water_Level.csv”) are included for water level and subsurface temperature data collected at each site using HOBO U20L barometric pressure loggers. Each file type (knee flux, soil flux, water level) has an associated data dictionary (“*_dd.csv”). For specifics on methodology used and calculations, see the associated manuscript. The R script includes code used for figures and analyses reported in the manuscript.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

NGEE Arctic Authorship Guidelines

Authorship Guidelines were developed to help facilitate trust among team members as we span multiple institutions, scientific disciplines, and career stages. NGEE Arctic was built on a foundation of open science, data sharing, and collaboration. In Phase 4 of the project, it was particularly important to keep this foundation in mind as we develop new collaborations across the Arctic. Included in this package is one *.pdf. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

Iversen, Colleen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000182933450)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra: Modeling Archive

This dataset is a model archive of the paper Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra (in prep) to support a modeling study investigating how projected increases in Arctic temperature and precipitation will jointly influence hydrologic conditions in ice-rich tundra landscapes. With this dataset, this study is to address the research question: Will Arctic tundra landscapes become wetter or drier with increasing precipitation and temperature in the future when thaw-induced ground subsidence and associated microtopographic evolution are represented? The simulations focus on ice-wedge polygon tundra, a widespread form of ice-rich permafrost terrain that is highly sensitive to thaw-driven landscape change. This dataset contains model input and output data for four study watersheds in Alaska: Anaktuvuk, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Brooks Foothills, and Prudhoe Bay. Simulations were performed using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS, v1.5), a physics-rich integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model. For each watershed, ten modeling cases were performed representing two landscape evolution conditions (with subsidence and without subsidence) combined with five climate forcing scenarios derived from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5, SSP5 with precipitation trend, SSP2, SSP2 with precipitation trend, and SSP2 with double precipitation trend). Particularly, for each watershed under the forcing SSP2 with precipitation trend, there are two additional simulations considering spatially heterogeneous subsidence distributions: one assumes randomly distributed scaling and the other includes elevation dependent distribution scaling. These simulations span 1980–2099 and include spin-up runs (1980–2009) followed by transient projections (2010–2099). To facilitate reproducibility of simulations, all datasets are organized by watershed. For each study watershed, the dataset contains: (1) Pre-partitioned mesh files for 32-core modeling (.par.32.XX), located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh/basin; and also a non-partitioned mesh file (.exo) located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh; (2) Climate forcings corresponding to the five SSP scenarios (.h5), located in EACH_WATERSHED/data; (3) Final states (.h5) from column spin-up modeling used to initialize historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009, located in EACH_WATERSHED/PreSpinupHistorical; (4) Final states (.h5) of historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009 used to initialize projection runs, located in EACH_WATERSHED/Spinup_daymetERA5; (5) ATS modeling input files (.xml), located in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/inputfiles; (6) ATS modeling output files (.dat), located in in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/combined_obs; (7) For the Brooks Foothills watershed, additional spatial model outputs are provided (.h5) for selected years (2033 and 2093) used to generate spatial figures in this study, located in Brooksfoothills/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/results-WITH/WITHOUT_SUBSIDENCE-year2033/2093. All data files with suffix .h5 can be accessible through Python h5py, and all data files with suffix of .dat can be imported by Python pandas. Mesh file with .exo can be visualized through Paraview or read by Python netCDF. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Post-fire soil respiration in late growing season (2023 and 2024), Kougarok Fire Complex, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Field soil respiration data collected in 2023 and 2024 from burned and unburned tussock tundra sites in the Kougarok Fire Complex, near Nome, on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Specifically, we measured soil properties and late-growing season CO2 fluxes in patches of unique plant functional types (forbs, shrubs, and graminoids) across two years in tundra recovering from repeated wildfires over the decade. The goal was to identify the main drivers of soil respiration in Arctic tundra underlain by discontinuous permafrost that is recovering from two recent, repeated wildfires that differed in fire age and number of times burned, thereby resulting in different levels of vegetation and subsurface property changes (i.e., successional trajectories). There are five files in *.csv format with one data file and four data description files including data, dictionary, methods, terminology, and file-level metadata. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic Phase 3 project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Santos, Fernanda [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000191555623)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Dynamic-to-Static Correction Factor from Petrophysical Data and Chemostratigraphy using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Estimating static mechanical properties of stratigraphic layers is critical for optimizing subsurface engineering applications. To estimate dynamic-to-static correction factor F ds (static-to-dynamic Young’s modulus ratio) across the Caney shale interval in Oklahoma, USA, we integrated triaxial test measurements and petrophysical data, including well logs and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) using unsupervised machine learning (ML). We used a novel workflow that includes principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce data set dimensionality of well logs and XRF data sets—both separately and combined—creating three scenarios, and later applied inverse distance weighting (IDW) to derive F ds profiles for these scenarios. Furthermore, we applied K-means clustering on each scenario to predict depositional facies, and built a stiffness zonation profile through chemostratigraphic analysis of the terrigenous elements to validate the predicted F ds . The predicted F ds profile from each scenario using the PCA-IDW method was compared with the constant F ds approach from our previous study by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE). The combined data sets scenario yielded the lowest RMSE value of 0.113, while the RMSE values for the well logs and XRF scenarios were 0.131 and 0.129, respectively. In addition, the predicted F ds from the XRF scenario well-matched the stiffness zonation from the chemostratigraphic analysis that was built using the optimized K-means clustering of nine clusters for that scenario. These methods and findings offer a valuable tool for refining lithological classification and improving the F ds profile, potentially enhancing drilling and stimulation strategies for subsurface energy engineering applications.

clastic rock↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pore-Scale Study on the Positive Feedback Between Stress and Porosity Caused by Pressure Solution in Porous Media

Pressure solution is an important process in the evolution of sedimentary rocks, which provide storage space for most of our petroleum resources. It directly influences the generation, migration, and storage of petroleum fluids in subsurface sedimentary rocks. Here, in this paper, we develop a pore-scale, mechanochemical model to demonstrate a possible positive feedback between the local porosity and pore surface stress, in which a higher local porosity causes a higher local pore surface stress, thus enhancing pressure solution and consequently further increasing the local porosity. Pore surface stress represents stress on a solid grain adjacent to a pore. Specifically, the pore-scale, mechanochemical model directly simulates the stress distribution over solid and pore surfaces using a finite element model. The dissolution of solids at the solid-pore interfaces under a far-from-equilibrium condition is simulated using a first-order kinetics model that accounts for the local stress distribution. The updated pore geometry, caused by pore surface dissolution, is then used in the stress simulation in the next numerical iteration. Two types of porous media, the Oriskany sandstone and an artificial porous medium with spherical pores, were tested in the mechanochemical simulation. The positive stress-porosity feedback during pressure solution was observed in both samples. In addition, the model quantitatively illustrated the distribution of local mineral dissolution rates on all pore surfaces, as well as its relation to the effective mineral dissolution rate of the entire sample. Based on the comparison between the two porous media, the local mineral dissolution was regulated by pore space distribution, geometry, and coalescence during pressure solution. This work is the first that uses direct, pore-scale numerical simulation to demonstrate the positive stress-porosity feedback during pressure solution, which has the potential to advance the understanding of the mechanical-chemical (MC) coupling in many geological processes that are relevant to subsurface energy systems, such as the recovery of petroleum hydrocarbons and geothermal energy.

CT scanning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Final Technical Report: Center for Mechanistic Control of Unconventional Formations

The overarching mission of the Center for Mechanistic Control of Unconventional Formations (CMC-UF) was to garner cross-cutting, fundamental, geoscience knowledge to achieve mechanistic control over the strongly coupled nonequilibrium physical and geochemical processes in extreme geological environments including shale, mudstone, marls, and other tight rocks with nanoscale pores. Collectively, these are referred to as unconventional formations and they often play the role of seals for other subsurface storage formations. The fundamental knowledge garnered by CMC-UF enabled science-based management of US unconventional formations for subsurface storage of carbon dioxide and TWh quantities of renewable energy as hydrogen and/or compressed air over longer timeframes as well as for natural gas production, with reduced environmental impacts, in the short term.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ecosystems and Networks Integrated with Genes and Molecular Assemblies (ENIGMA): Molecular and Computational Technologies for Environmental Microbiology (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The ENIGMA science focus area (SFA) is a multi-disciplinary, multi-institutional research effort focused on addressing foundational knowledge gaps in environmental microbial communities by studying groundwater and sediment microbiomes in the shallow subsurface at the contaminated Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). We seek to discover and characterize the reciprocal interactions between the microbial communities and the geochemical and geophysical parameters of the shallow subsurface within the contamination plume. The primary goal of this subcontract was to develop experimental and computational tools to advance our understanding of microbial adaptation and community assembly in contaminated environments, with specific efforts in high-throughput genomic methods, microbial ecology tools, and studies of heavy metal contamination impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of Antarctic and Greenland Continental Shelf Circulation on High‐Latitude Oceans in E3SM

The science objectives of this project are to simulate and understand the impacts of both deep-basin warm-water intrusions and land-ice melt on the continental shelf circulations and sea-ice distributions around the margins of Greenland and Antarctica. As well, the role of subsurface ocean heat from the Atlantic on declining sea-ice cover in the Arctic is explored. Mesoscale processes and fine bathymetry are implicated in cross-shelf property transports around both Greenland and Antarctica. Therefore, we configured and ran an atmospheric reanalysis-forced global ocean/sea-ice simulation on a grid that reduces from 8 km at the Equator to 2 km at the poles (UH8to2) with 60 vertical levels. It was produced using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model ‘‘HiLAT’’ code (E3SMv0-HiLAT) that uses the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and CICE5 as its ocean and sea-ice components, respectively. Two main UH8to2 simulations were carried out: one for 1975-2009 and the other for July 2016-2020 after it was initialized from a 1/25° data-assimilative ocean/sea-ice prediction system ocean/sea-ice state. The UH8to2 is not coupled to an active land-ice model. Rather, land-ice melt is represented by observationally informed freshwater fluxes (FWFs). Short (multi-year) UH8to2 simulations were conducted to understand sensitivities when Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt is released only at the ocean surface or when it is distributed over the upper water column in accordance with fjord melt plume behavior; these cases were compared with a no GrIS melt case. West Greenland continental shelf currents were fastest in the vertical distribution case and an increase in baroclinic conversion at the shelf break associated with increased eddy kinetic energy was found relative to the surface release case. Further, salinity is lower and meltwater volume greater in the eastern Labrador Sea in the vertical distribution case. For the Arctic, the veracity of the UH8to2 was evaluated for 2017-2020 using available observations. Simulated seasonal sea-ice thickness and concentration are realistic, but the ice is unrealistically thin in the central and eastern Arctic in the fall. Comparisons of vertical sections of ocean temperature, salinity, and buoyancy collected from Ice-Tethered Profilers (ITPs) in the eastern Arctic in the fall and winter of 2019/2020 and co-located/concurrent UH8to2 fields show the stratification over the top 100 m of the water column is too low in the model, the simulated mixed layer too deep, and the simulated subsurface Atlantic Water (AW) too warm; these biases may contribute to the sea-ice biases. A model intercomparison study using the UH8to2 and a forced 1/25° regional Arctic ocean/sea-ice (uses the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model and CICE5) simulation further investigates the relationship between AW and sea-ice in the eastern Arctic. The models show a mesoscale-rich pulse of Atlantic Water extending into the eastern basin that reaches maximum intensity in late winter of 2018, after which it decreases in strength. Concurrent and co-located sea-ice melt or the inhibition of sea-ice growth is seen and is attributed to halocline mesoscale eddies doming into the mixed layer with convection bringing this heat into the vicinity of the sea-ice.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of Close-in Ground Motion from an Underground Chemical Explosion

Understanding the geophysical response near an underground explosion is crucial for generating insights into the source and emplacement conditions that produce distinct observations in monitoring scenarios occurring at greater distances. Recently, Shot A of the Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) Physics Experiment 1 (PE1) series was conducted at the Nevada National Security Site to provide ground truth for subsurface explosion signal models. This experiment resulted in measuring near-source ground motion at distances ranging from 70 to 1000 m/kt with a 99% success rate, yielding high-fidelity knowledge of the near-field response that can serve as benchmarks for future numerical modeling and experiment planning. However, technical challenges exist in observing near-source phenomena while safeguarding sensitive data acquisition components from the detrimental effects of ground motion in the subsurface. This report outlines tools and techniques to address challenges associated with observing near-source accelerations and within the tunnel drift of the PE1 test bed. Additionally, we describe key systems designed with both modern advancements and legacy guidance to maximize the collection of high-quality ground motion data, which may be applied to constitutive and computational models, leading to new or improved understanding of the near- and far-field signals produced by underground explosions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Supersaturating Water with CO 2 via Nanobubble Formation

The subsurface storage of CO 2 is limited by the solubility of CO 2 in brine. One proposed solution to increase the volume fraction of CO 2 in a reservoir is by injecting the CO 2 at high pressure in nanobubble form. These nanobubbles, diameter <50 nm, would be small enough that they would only undergo Brownian motion, preventing them rising under buoyancy and escaping the formation. There has also been some experimental work that suggests the present of these nanobubbles significantly (~2x) increase the solubility of gaseous CO 2 in the aqueous phase. NETL and ExxonMobil will test the viability of this strategy to increase the volume fraction of CO 2 in a subsurface reservoir, determine the stability of these nanobubble systems, and understand the ultimate limits of increasing the CO 2 volume fraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Big Data Meets Geothermal Exploration (CRADA Final Report)

As part of the Cyclotron Road program, Zanskar Geothermal & Minerals, Inc. investigated the application of micro-earthquake and ambient noise seismology methods to imaging and characterizing the structural characteristics and hydrothermal flux of subsurface faults. Significant advances in what could be resolved were enabled by two major developments in seismology: 1) the availability of large-n arrays of low-cost seismometers, and 2) the availability of increased computational power and semi-automated data reduction algorithms. In tandem, these advances may improve the signal-to-noise ratio and spatial precision of the data collected and enable higher-resolution characterization of subsurface fracture systems and their spatio-temporal evolution. These tools supported efforts to reduce dry-hole risk and to improve wellfield productivity for geothermal resource development. In particular, two applications of these advances were evaluated: 1) fracture-seismic imaging, which was used to detect ambient emissions from fluid-filled fractures, and 2) reservoir tomography, which used information about travel paths, source locations, and source parameters of micro-earthquakes to identify areas of enhanced permeability. Integration of these methods provided guidance for siting wells and served as prior constraints for reservoir models, informing forecasts of power potential and production and injection strategies aimed at minimizing temperature decline and improving overall resource productivity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

FY 2026 Midyear Report: Seismic Monitoring of Underground Vibration Sources Using Distributed Acoustic Sensing and Seismometers

Safeguards-relevant temporal changes in underground facilities can be observed using geophysical monitoring techniques. Seismic waves, in particular, provide valuable insights into subsurface activities and can serve as an important tool for detecting anomalous events that may indicate containment breaches at geological repositories. This midyear report summarizes ongoing efforts to automatically and rapidly detect and locate anomalous vibration signals that could be indicative of potential containment breaches. Previous work during FY25 focused on compiling continuous seismic datasets from two underground sites and developing a database of continuous waveforms and ground-truth event data derived from multiple sensing modalities. Building on this foundation, we are adapting anomaly detection and geolocation algorithms to explore methods for monitoring underground activities using two relatively low-maintenance sensing technologies: a dense surface geophone array deployed at the Pleasant Gap mine in Pennsylvania, and a three-dimensional fiber-optic cable array for distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) installed in the subsurface at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in South Dakota. This report summarizes work conducted during the first two quarters of FY26, during which we refined a dynamic power spectral density (PSD)-based detector, applied it independently to each geophone station, and then combined the per‑station detections with density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) to cluster events and produce spatial maps over a nine‑day interval. In addition, we outline plans for a field trial at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in New Mexico to compare traditional seismic monitoring approaches with DAS techniques and to evaluate the benefits of combined data analysis. Activities during the past two quarters have included the preparation and submission of a Field Test Plan to WIPP for approval, as well as submission to headquarters for review and feedback.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗