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At least 289 records · Page 16

Explainable AI for a No-Teardown Vehicle Component Cost Estimation: A Top-Down Approach

The broader ambition of this article is to popularize an approach for the fair distribution of the quantity of a system's output to its subsystems while allowing for underlying complex subsystem level interactions. Particularly, we present the use of this framework on a very specific (but generalizable) application, interesting for a more general AI audience. Here, we detail a data-driven approach to vehicle price modeling and its component price estimation by leveraging a combination of concepts from machine learning and game theory. We show an alternative to common teardown methodologies and surveying approaches for component and vehicle price estimation at the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) level that has the advantage of bypassing uncertainties involved in gathering teardown data, the need to perform expensive and biased surveying, and the need to perform retail price equivalent or indirect cost multiplier adjustments to mark up direct manufacturing costs to MSRP. This novel exercise not only provides accurate pricing of the technologies at the customer level, but also shows the, a priori known, large gaps in pricing strategies between manufacturers, vehicle classes, market segments, etc. There is also clear interaction between the price of technologies and other specifications present in vehicles. Those results are indication that old methods of manufacturer-level component costing, aggregation, and application of flat and rigid adjustment factors should be carefully examined. The findings are based on a database developed by Argonne, which includes over 64,000 vehicles covering MY1990 to MY2020 with hundreds of vehicle specs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Thermal Process Intensification: Transforming the Way Industry Uses Thermal Process Energy (Workshop Report)

The US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Advanced Manufacturing Office held the virtual workshop entitled “Thermal Process Intensification: Transforming the Way Industry Uses Thermal Process Energy” in November and December 2020. The workshop brought together participants from universities/laboratories, industries, equipment manufacturers, technology vendors, nongovernmental organizations, and subject-matter experts to discuss transformative technologies and strategies to substantially improve the performance (e.g., energy productivity, thermal efficiency, reduced greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions, reduced number of process steps) of thermal processing systems in the industrial sector. The US industrial sector accounts for 32% of the nation’s primary energy use (including feedstocks), and refining, chemicals, pulp and paper, iron and steel, and food products represent the top energy-consuming sectors. Thermal processing or process heating represents the largest energy use category; it accounts for 63% of all energy use in manufacturing. Additionally, thermal processing is the largest contributor of carbon dioxide (CO2) generation, resulting from combustion of fuels and process related chemical reactions, such as in the case of cement and lime production. The challenge of achieving net-zero industrial GHG emissions is colossal considering the established industrial base that depends mainly on carbon-based processes and energy sources; the time frame and cost to replace carbon-based energy sources and feedstocks; and the long-term outlook for development with large-scale adaptation of alternative non carbon–based technologies. The goals of the DOE Advanced Manufacturing Office Thermal Process Intensification Workshop were as follows: (1) Identify R&D gaps and opportunities to facilitate transformative improvement in industrial thermal processes beyond current technologies and allow for entirely new methods for processing materials; (2) Gain insight into new and innovative approaches to thermally intensify processes, reduce heat demand, harness waste heat, and use fuels and hydrocarbon feedstocks more efficiently; (3) Identify the R&D pathways to thermal process intensification (TPI) with the highest potential for impact and adoption by the industrial sector; (4) Define areas of research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) activities to accelerate development and application of emerging and transformative technologies to intensify thermal processes in industry. The scope and focus of the workshop were defined to meet these goals. Based on the available data for energy use and GHG emissions, the industries that collectively use more than 80% of the total process heating energy consumption were selected as primary focus areas. The chosen industries were combined into the following four groups based on similarities in their thermal processes: high-temperature metal processing (iron and steel industry, alumina-aluminum industry); high-temperature nonmetal and mineral processing (cement and glass industry); medium- to low-temperature thermal processing (food processing and pulp and paper industry as part of forest products sector); and hydrocarbon processing (petroleum refining and chemical industry). Furthermore, all potential TPI technologies associated with the processes defined were considered as part of the workshop. Different types of TPI technologies possible in industrial in the document.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Infrared nanoimaging and nanospectroscopy of electrochemical energy storage materials and interfaces

Electrochemical interfaces are central to the function and performance of energy storage devices. Thus, the development of new methods to characterize these interfaces, in conjunction with electrochemical performance, is essential for bridging the existing knowledge gaps and accelerating the development of energy storage technologies. Of particular need is the ability to characterize surfaces or interfaces in a non-destructive way with adequate resolution to discern individual structural and chemical building blocks. To this end, sub-diffraction-limit low-energy infrared optical probes that exploit near-field interactions within atomic force microscopy platforms, such as pseudoheterodyne nanoimaging, photothermal nanoimaging and nanospectroscopy, and nanoscale Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, are all powerful emerging techniques. These are capable of non-destructive surface probing and imaging at nanometer resolution. This review outlines recent efforts to characterize ex situ, in situ, and operando electrode materials and electrochemical interfaces in rechargeable batteries with these advanced infrared near-field probes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Advances in high-pressure and high-temperature heat exchangers: Innovations via additive manufacturing and their applications

This paper provides a comprehensive overview of technological developments and applications for high-pressure and high-temperature (HPHT) heat exchangers produced through additive manufacturing (AM) techniques. As the demand for high-efficiency energy systems has been rising, the role of heat exchangers for thermal management and transport is becoming increasingly crucial. In this context, AM has emerged as a promising manufacturing solution to address the challenges posed by higher operating temperatures and/or pressures. This paper delves into three primary areas: the exploration of HPHT regimes supported by conventional heat exchangers, the impact of AM processes on thermal transport devices, and the discussion focused on HPHT heat exchangers produced via AM. The study examines the traditional manufacturing processes, materials, structures and geometries, and limitations of the commonly used heat exchangers for HPHT applications. Furthermore, it highlights the potential of AM in optimizing HPHT heat exchanger design, by reviewing studies that enable uniform flow distribution, minimization of fouling, and thermo-hydraulic performance augmentation without compromising structural stability. While addressing the limitations of cost, size, and other constraints, this study offers insights into the possibilities of AM in revolutionizing HPHT heat exchanger technology. The goal has been to fill the gap in literature by summarizing key studies, findings, and limitations, presenting a detailed examination, and proposing new areas for research. In conclusion, this review contributes to a deeper understanding of AM’s role in advancing HPHT heat exchangers for future energy systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nontraditional Approaches To Enable High-Energy and Long-Life Lithium–Sulfur Batteries

In this study, lithium-sulfur (Li-S) batteries are promising for automotive applications due to their high theoretical energy density (2600 Wh/kg). In addition, the natural abundance of sulfur could mitigate the global raw material supply chain challenge of commercial lithium-ion batteries that use critical elements, such as nickel and cobalt. However, due to persistent polysulfide shuttling and uncontrolled lithium dendrite growth, Li-S batteries using nonencapsulated sulfur cathodes and conventional ether-based electrolytes suffer from rapid cell degradation upon cycling. Despite significant improvements in recent decades, there is still a big gap between lab research and commercialization of the technology. To date, the reported cell energy densities and cycling life of practical Li-S pouch cells remain largely unsatisfactory. Traditional approaches to improving Li-S performance are primarily focused on confining polysulfides using electronically conductive hosts. However, these micro- and mesoporous hosts suffer from limited pore volume to accommodate high sulfur loading and the associated volume change during cycling. Moreover, they fail to balance adsorption-conversion of polysulfides during charge-discharge, leading to the formation of massive dead sulfur. Such hosts are themselves electrochemically inactive, which decreases the practical energy density. In contrast, a series of nontraditional approaches, paired with advances in multiscale mechanistic understanding, have recently demonstrated exciting performance outcomes not only in conventional coin cells but also in practical pouch cells. In this Account, we first introduce our novel cathode design strategies to overcome polysulfide shuttling and sluggish redox kinetics in thick S cathodes via selenium-sulfur chemistry and cathode host engineering. Next, we gain a mechanistic understanding of Li-S batteries in various types of electrolytes via a series of spectroscopic, nuclear magnetic resonance, and electrochemical methods. Meanwhile, a novel cathode solid electrolyte interphase encapsulation strategy via nonviscous highly fluorinated ether-based electrolyte is introduced. The established selection rule by investigating how solvating power retards the shuttle effect and induces robust cathode/solid-electrolyte interphase formation is also included. We then discuss how the synergistic interactions between rational cathode structures and electrolytes can be exploited to tailor the reaction pathways and kinetics of S cathodes under high mass loading and lean electrolyte conditions. In addition, a novel interlayer design to simultaneously overcome degradation processes (polysulfide shuttling and lithium dendrite formation) and accelerate redox reaction kinetics is presented. Finally, this Account concludes with an overview of the challenges and strategies to develop Li-S pouch cells with high practical energy density, long cycle life, and fast-charging capability.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Nondestructive Analysis of Commercial Batteries

Electrochemical batteries play a crucial role for powering portable electronics, electric vehicles, large-scale electric grids, and future electric aircraft. However, key performance metrics such as energy density, charging speed, lifespan, and safety raise significant consumer concerns. Enhancing battery performance hinges on a deep understanding of their operational and degradation mechanisms, from material composition and electrode structure to large-scale pack integration, necessitating advanced characterization methods. These methods not only enable improved battery performance but also facilitate early detection of substandard or potentially hazardous batteries before they cause serious incidents. Here, this review comprehensively examines the operational principles, applications, challenges, and prospects of cutting-edge characterization techniques for commercial batteries, with a specific focus on in situ and operando methodologies. Furthermore, it explores how these powerful tools have elucidated the operational and degradation mechanisms of commercial batteries. By bridging the gap between advanced characterization techniques and commercial battery technologies, this review aims to guide the design of more sophisticated experiments and models for studying battery degradation and enhancement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Isolation of Single Donors in ZnO

The shallow donor in zinc oxide (ZnO) is a promising semiconductor spin qubit with optical access. Single indium donors are isolated in a commercial ZnO substrate using plasma focused ion beam (PFIB) milling. Quantum emitters are identified optically by spatial and frequency filtering. The indium donor assignment is based on the optical bound exciton transition energy and magnetic dependence. The emission stability of these single donors in terms of both intensity and frequency, alongside their transition linewidths less than twice the lifetime limit, highlight the promise of single In donors as optically accessible spin qubits. Here, the optical stability of single donors after FIB fabrication is promising for optical device integration required for scalable quantum technologies based on single donors in direct band gap semiconductors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Smart Building Start (SBS) (CRADA 480)

The idea of Smart Building Start (SBS) is to manage the on/off scheduling of HVAC equipment in buildings in an optimal way in order to achieve comfort conditions at the designated times with the minimal use of energy. This concept is also known as Optimal Start and it has typically been used in buildings to start up equipment based on predictions made for a representative (or average) zone in a building. This means that zones that could have waited longer to receive conditioned air are activated too early leading to unnecessary energy loss. The approach proposed in this project is to develop and implement a distributed version of optimal start that will consider the individual requirements of all treated zones. The developed control strategy will enable smart start of the central plant as well as further localized control over each individual zone by means of setpoint adjustment so that zones are not conditioned too early thereby reducing energy use compared to the current state of the art. This project is a collaboration between PNNL and Verdicity with the goal being to bring the research concept of SBS to commercialization. The SBS algorithm(s) will be implemented and hosted on the PNNL-developed open-platform VOLTTRON which will accelerate bringing the research to practice. It is anticipated that this project will lead to new IP surrounding the algorithm and its decentralized deployment. The project will also further demonstrate the success of VOLTRON as a flexible platform for implementation of innovative algorithms for improving energy efficiency in buildings. Previous studies on smart building start carried out by PNNL have indicated potential energy savings on the order of 10-15% for multi-zone buildings compared to conventional strategies. Verdicity currently has a number of customers who can benefit from the use of this technology. PNNL will work with Verdicity to identify any key gaps in the integrated software and jointly work to enhance and customize it for Verdicity and to integrate it with their existing products for use at their customers’ sites. The proposed work will help previously funded Federal research and development technology investments find their way into a viable commercial market.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Assessment of Cold Spray Technology for Nuclear Power Applications

This report provides an overview of cold spray (CS) technology as it relates to repair and fabrication of metal alloys in the nuclear power industry. CS is a relatively new technology with applications established in other industries (e.g., aerospace, defense), and greater use of CS is anticipated within the nuclear power industry. This report is prepared in support of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Action Plan for Advanced Manufacturing Technologies (AMTs) Rev. 1, which includes objectives to identify the AMTs most likely to be used for nuclear power applications that require NRC approval, and to prepare NRC staff to review regulatory submittals containing components manufacturing using AMTs. In addition to providing an overview of CS technology, this report highlights engineering and scientific knowledge gaps of CS and rates the size of the knowledge gaps. It also assesses importance rankings of the knowledge gaps as they relate to several application categories. The application categories considered in this exercise include factory-applied CS for chloride induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC) mitigation, field CISCC repair, light water reactor (LWR) factory structural fabrication, and LWR field dimensional restoration and corrosion protection. The combination of a knowledge gap size rating and importance ranking for an application can be used to prioritize additional data or information gathering efforts.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Comprehensive Study of the Potential of Extracting and Processing Critical Minerals from Coal-Based Resources - Phase I

The Phase I report prepared for the Department of Energy addresses U.S. Executive Order 13817 titled A Federal Strategy to Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals, issued on December 20, 2017, that lists 35 critical minerals that are vulnerable to supply disruption. A comprehensive review of each of the minerals was conducted to determine the criticality based primarily on extractability from coal-based resources. Several other factors were also considered such as gaps in supply and demand, use in current technology, and the existence of viable substitutes. It was determined that the critical minerals that show highest potential for extraction from coal-based resources are lithium, rare earth elements (REEs), cobalt, and manganese. All four of the critical minerals listed serve an important role in the technology industry, have few substitutes, and have a heavy import reliance. Most notably are lithium, which is widely used in the electric vehicle industry, and the REEs which can be found in virtually all electronic devices. The research of critical mineral extraction from coal-based resources was completed using a combination of literature review from public sources as well as cooperation from coal mines and power plants across the United States. Samples collected from six different geographical locations across the U.S. were subjected to sample preparation (i.e., pH measurement, moisture content, particle size analysis) and characterization studies using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectroscopy (ICP-MS) and Scanning Electron Microscopy, Energy Dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy (SEM-EDX) instruments. 27 samples of coal waste materials such as refuse, sludge, and fly ash were tested to characterize the rare earth element concentration by total rare earth elements (TREEs), heavy rare earth elements (HREEs), and light rare earth elements (LREEs). Of the 27 samples tested, 22 contained a TREE concentration higher than the threshold of 300 ppm, which is considered a viable feedstock material. 3 samples contained less than 300 ppm of TREEs; however, they were within 20 ppm of the threshold, and could potentially be considered viable sources in the future pending the advancement of more efficient extraction technologies. 2 of the 27 samples had significantly low TREE concentrations, which does not imply any potential for being a source for REEs. For the minerals identified as most critical in the literature review, a conceptual process flow diagram (PFD) was developed for their extraction from different coal-based feedstocks. The process targets selective recovery of one commodity (i.e., rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and manganese) via several hydrometallurgical separation methods. By identifying potentially extractable coal-based critical mineral resources, a study of the current and future market environments for each critical mineral, and a review of current processing methodologies for critical mineral extraction from coal-based resources, the foundation has been laid to further characterize and explore new resources and extraction techniques. As reliance on technologies in industries such as the production of electronic devices, batteries, and alloys containing critical minerals utilizing critical minerals continues to increase, a sound understanding of our nation’s dependence on and even the global criticality of certain critical minerals, will serve as a catalyst for innovation in virtually all fields of science.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Manufacturing Valuable Coal-Derived Products in Southern Appalachia

This project’s objective is to develop and deploy new technologies for manufacturing rare earth elements (REE), critical minerals (CM), and valuable non-fuel, carbon-based products (CBP) from coal and/or coal waste in the SoApp Basin, thus revitalizing distressed SoApp coal communities and reducing reliance on foreign imports of REE and CM. Resource availability and technological advances alone will not ensure this objective is met. The right mix of business climate, market forces, and policy will also be needed. This report identifies the critical technologies, infrastructure, supply chains, human capital, and policy gaps that must be addressed to manufacture REE, CM, and CBP from coal resources and wastes in SoApp The primary goal of the project is to characterize the resource base in the SoApp Basin.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Development of MCNP Training Modules for Safeguards Practitioners [Abstract]

The Monte-Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) software developed at LANL is the most widely used neutron transport code in the world. It is an essential tool for a variety of applications including detector development and design, nuclear fuel burnup simulation, criticality safety, and nondestructive assay system optimization. For this reason, it is indispensable within the safeguards and materials control & accountability (MC&A) communities. Multiple MCNP training courses have been created and taught over the last several decades by the MCNP development team at LANL, however there are no existing courses that cover specialized topics considered fundamental to NDA and safeguards models. To fill this gap, the MCNP team and Safeguards Science and Technology group at LANL have co-created a set of training modules customized to meet the specialized needs of the safeguards and MC&A communities. The basic modules cover concepts such as NDA system optimization, He-specific and other capture tallies, and tools for improved theoretical understanding. An advanced module was also created to cover topics including variance reduction for active interrogation simulations, use of the LANL MCNPTools post-processor, PTRAC (particle tracking) and list-mode data simulations, and fuel burnup simulations. The training modules teach to the latest and most state-of-the-art MCNP features and tools released by the development team at LANL and are intended to be taught jointly by the developers and safeguards experts. Ultimately, we hope that creation of these modules will serve to capture and convey the safeguards modeling and MCNP expertise at LANL, and that we will be able to share the modules more broadly with the MC&A and safeguards communities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of decentralized preprocessing systems for fast pyrolysis biorefineries with blended feedstocks in the southeastern United States

This study evaluated the economic feasibility of fast pyrolysis biorefineries fed with blended pine residues and switchgrass in the Southeastern U.S. with different supply chain design. Previous techno-economic analyses (TEA) have focused on either blended biomass or decentralized preprocessing without investigating the impacts of varied process parameters, technology options, and real-world biomass distribution. This study fills the literature gap by modeling scenarios for different biomass blending ratios, biorefinery and preprocessing site (so-called depot) capacities, and alternative preprocessing technologies. High-resolution, real-world geospatial data were analyzed using Geographic Information Systems to facilitate supply chain design and TEA. For a decentralized system, the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of biofuel was 3.92–4.33 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE), while the MFSP for the centralized biorefinery at the same capacities ranged between 3.75–4.02/GGE. Implementing a high moisture pelleting process depot rather than a conventional pelleting process lowered the MFSP by 0.03–0.17/GGE. Scenario analysis indicated decreased MFSP with increasing biorefinery capacities but not necessarily with increasing depot size. Medium-size depots (500 OMDT/day) achieved the lowest MFSP. Here, this analysis identified the optimal blending ratios for two preprocessing technologies at varied depot sizes. Counterintuitively, increasing the proportion of higher cost switchgrass reduced the MFSP for large biorefineries (>5000 ODMT/day), but increased the MFSP for small biorefineries (1000–2500 ODMT/day). Although the decentralized systems have a higher MFSP based on current analysis, it has other potential benefits such as mitigated supply chain risks and improved feedstock quality that are difficult to be quantified in this TEA.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Integrating HPC, AI, and Workflows for Scientific Data Analysis: Report from Dagstuhl Seminar 23352

The Dagstuhl Seminar 23352, titled “Integrating HPC, AI, and Workflows for Scientific Data Analysis,” held from August 27 to September 1, 2023, was a significant event focusing on the synergy between High-Performance Computing (HPC), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and scientific workflow technologies. The seminar recognized that modern Big Data analysis in science rests on three pillars: workflow technologies for reproducibility and steering, AI and Machine Learning (ML) for versatile analysis, and HPC for handling large data sets. These elements, while crucial, have traditionally been researched separately, leading to gaps in their integration. The seminar aimed to bridge these gaps, acknowledging the challenges and opportunities at the intersection of these technologies. The event highlighted the complex interplay between HPC, workflows, and ML, noting how ML has increasingly been integrated into scientific workflows, thereby enhancing resource demands and bringing new requirements to HPC architectures, like support for GPUs and iterative computations. The seminar also addressed the challenges in adapting HPC for large-scale ML tasks, including in areas like deep learning, and the need for workflow systems to evolve to leverage ML in data analysis fully. Moreover, the seminar explored how ML could optimize scientific workflow systems and HPC operations, such as through improved scheduling and fault tolerance. A key focus was on identifying prestigious use cases of ML in HPC and understanding their unique, unmet requirements. The stochastic nature of ML and its impact on the reproducibility of data analysis on HPC systems was also a topic of discussion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Navigating United States Standards and Regulation for Digital Energy Systems

This report provides an analysis of the U.S. standards and regulatory landscape for digital energy systems, focusing on cybersecurity, safety, and reliability requirements. It examines the interplay between federal mandates, state regulations, voluntary industry standards, and utility-specific policies, highlighting critical gaps between compliance and real-world risk mitigation. While NERC CIP standards enforce cybersecurity for Bulk Electric System assets, distribution-level infrastructure and emerging technologies often fall outside mandatory oversight, creating vulnerabilities. The report identifies systemic challenges such as reliance on self-attestation, uneven state adoption of safety codes, and lagging standards for advanced technologies like battery energy storage and inverter-based resources. Through a detailed gap analysis, it underscores the urgency of proactive risk-based approaches, independent verification, and strategic engagement with state and federal entities. Recommendations include adopting tiered security frameworks, strengthening procurement practices, and addressing emerging technology risks to ensure resilient and secure digital energy infrastructure. This guidance is intended for utilities, regulators, and stakeholders navigating compliance obligations and seeking to enhance cybersecurity and safety beyond minimum standards.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Ducted Fuel Injection and Cooled Spray Technologies for Particulate Control in Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines

Heavy-duty diesel engine manufacturers are continually seeking simple, low-cost technologies to reduce emissions. Ducted Fuel Injection (DFI) and Cooled Spray (CS) technologies have emerged as promising solutions, offering the potential for nearly sootless operation. These innovations could significantly decrease harmful Particulate Matter (PM) emissions while enabling further optimization to reduce Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and increase efficiency. While initial experiments across various engine types have shown promise, uncertainties remain regarding the ideal geometry, scaling properties, and effectiveness of these technologies across different operating conditions. This project aims to address these knowledge gaps through experiments in both optical and metal single-cylinder engines.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Virtual Pressure Sensor for Electronic Expansion Valve Control in a Vapor Compression Refrigeration System

Virtual sensor technology, which uses simulation models/algorithms to calculate a value to represent an unmeasured variable or replace a directly measured reading, has attracted many studies in the heating, ventilation, air conditioning and refrigeration (HVAC&R) industry. However, most virtual sensor technologies are developed for fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) purposes, which generally compare the virtual sensor values with actual measured values to detect if any fault occurred and identify the causes that led to the fault. It is rare to see studies focus on control performance of virtual sensors after substituting an actual sensor. This is particularly important for the system with no redundant sensor since a virtual sensor is the most effective way to operate the system in the desirable region when any sensor failure occurs. To address this gap, this paper develops a new virtual pressure sensor technology to substitute the actual pressure measurement for electronic expansion valve (EXV) control in a vapor compression refrigeration system by integrating compressor and valve characteristics. The control performance of this proposed virtual pressure sensor technology under various operating conditions is validated with experimental data. Closed loop EXV control simulations with the proposed virtual pressure sensor are conducted, and the results are analyzed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Expert perspectives on the wind plant of the future

Abstract Wind power technology has changed rapidly in recent years. Technology innovation, evolving power markets, and competing land and ocean uses continue to influence the design and operation of wind turbines and plants. Anticipating these trends and their impact on future facilities can inform commercial strategies and research priorities. Drawing from a recent survey of 140 of the world's foremost wind experts, we identify expectations of future wind plant design in 2035, both for onshore and offshore wind. Experts anticipate continued growth in turbine size, to 5.5 (onshore) and 17 MW (offshore), with plants located in increasingly less favorable wind and siting regimes. They expect plant sizes of 1,100 MW for fixed‐bottom and 600 MW for floating offshore wind. Experts forecast enhanced grid‐system value from wind through significant to widespread use of larger rotors, hybrid projects with batteries and hydrogen production, and more. To explain experts' perspectives on future plant design and operation, we identify five mechanisms: economies of unit, plant, and resource scale; grid‐system value economies; and production efficiencies. We characterize learning effects as a moderating influence on the strength of these mechanisms. In combination, experts predict that these design choices support levelized cost of energy reductions of 27% (onshore) and 17%–35% (floating and fixed‐bottom offshore) by 2035 compared to today, while enhancing wind energy's grid service offerings. Our findings provide a much‐needed benchmark for representing future wind technologies in power sector models and address a critical research gap by explaining the economics behind wind energy design choices.

17 WIND ENERGY↗