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DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Spatial Asymmetries in Teleconnected Extreme Temperatures

Abstract Combining strengths from deep learning and extreme value theory can help describe complex relationships between variables where extreme events have significant impacts (e.g., environmental or financial applications). Neural networks learn complicated nonlinear relationships from large datasets under limited parametric assumptions. By definition, the number of occurrences of extreme events is small, which limits the ability of the data-hungry, nonparametric neural network to describe rare events. Inspired by recent extreme cold winter weather events in North America caused by atmospheric blocking, we examine several probabilistic generative models for the entire multivariate probability distribution of daily boreal winter surface air temperature. We propose metrics to measure spatial asymmetries, such as long-range anticorrelated patterns that commonly appear in temperature fields during blocking events. Compared to vine copulas, the statistical standard for multivariate copula modeling, deep learning methods show improved ability to reproduce complicated asymmetries in the spatial distribution of ERA5 temperature reanalysis, including the spatial extent of in-sample extreme events.

Krock, Mitchell L.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Latitude-dependent sensitivity to stationary perturbations in simple climate models

The steady-state zonally averaged climate is perturbed by adding a latitude-dependent heat source to an energy balance equation of the simplified Budyko-Sellers type. The latitude of the ice edge, which is attached to an isotherm, becomes dependent on the strength of the perturbation. This dependence is given in terms of the well-known iceline-solar constant relation, and the latitude dependence of the perturbed temperature field is then uniquely determined. The exact analytical solution is linearized and expressed in terms of a superposition of line sources at various latitudes. The main features are: (1) The total temperature response is a sum of the direct effect of the perturbation and an indirect ice-albedo effect proportional to the solar ice-edge sensitivity; and (2) the indirect feedback effect produces an enhanced response in polar latitudes.

Salmun, H.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Tropical cyclone intensities from satellite microwave data

Radial profiles of mean 1000 mb to 250 mb temperature from the Nimbus 6 scanning microwave spectrometer (SCAMS) were constructed around eight intensifying tropical storms in the western Pacific. Seven storms showed distinct inward temperature gradients required for intensification; the eighth displayed no inward gradient and was decaying 24 hours later. The possibility that satellite data might be used to forecast tropical cyclone turning motion was investigated using estimates obtained from Nimbus 6 SCAMS data tapes of the mean 1000 mb to 250 mb temperature field around eleven tropical storms in 1975. Analysis of these data show that for turning storms, in all but one case, the turn was signaled 24 hours in advance by a significant temperature gradient perpendicular to the storm's path, at a distance of 9 deg to 13 deg in front of the storm. A thresholding technique was applied to the North Central U.S. during the summer to estimate precipitation frequency. except

Vonderhaar, T. H.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Ground based studies for the space processing of lead-tin-telluride

This paper summarizes the results of a series of studies dealing with crystal growth from the melt and in particular, the growth of the narrow bandgap semiconductor PbSnTe by the Bridgman technique. Theoretical calculations have shown that for low Prandtl number fluids such as semiconductors, convection has no effect on the temperature field in the melt but has a significant effect on the compositional field. They also show that convective flow will exist in a Bridgman growth system on earth, even in the 'thermally stable' configuration. Measurements of the specific heat have been made up to temperatures of 722 C. The thermal diffusivity has been measured up to 1010 C which includes values for the melt. The interdiffusion coefficients for PbTe and SnTe in the melt have been determined. A technique has been developed and tested which provides a vacuum tight quartz ampoule with electrical feedthroughs for interface demarcation studies during the Bridgman growth. Analysis of crystals grown has indicated that the PbSnTe system is solutally unstable and the distribution of SnTe in the crystal, after an anomalous first to freeze region, follows that predicted by Pfann for convection controlled growth. Studies of the amount of supercooling in PbSnTe indicate that this may explain an anomalous composition distribution in the first to freeze region of an unseeded growth.

Crouch, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Numerical solution of strong radiation gasdynamic interactions in a hydrogen-seedant mixture

Theoretical and experimental results are provided for the absorption of laser energy by a gas flow. A two-dimensional numerical model described the temperature field, fluid dynamics, variable absorptivity and gas dynamics. The model was tested using a hydrogen-seedant mixture injected with 10.6 micron laser radiation. The laser mix was selected to allow reduced temperature gradients and energy source terms. It was found possible, by varying parameters such as the laser power and flash pressure, to precisely position the peak absorptance region in higher speed flows. More refined models are being tested to achieve accurate absorptance predictions in flows below Mach 0.0001.

Merkle, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The effect of an electric field on the morphological stability of the crystal-melt interface of a binary alloy. III - Weakly nonlinear theory

The effect of a constant electric current on the crystal-melt interface morphology during directional solidification at constant velocity of a binary alloy is considered. A linear temperature field is assumed, and thermoelectric effects and Joule heating are neglected; electromigration and differing electrical conductivities of crystal and melt are taken into account. A two-dimensional weakly nonlinear analysis is carried out to third order in the interface amplitude, resulting in a cubic amplitude equation that describes whether the bifurcation from the planar state is supercritical or subcritical. For wavelengths corresponding to the most dangerous mode of linear theory, the demarcation between supercritical and subcritical behavior is calculated as a function of processing conditions and material parameters. The bifurcation behavior is a sensitive function of the magnitude and direction of the electric current and of the electrical conductivity ratio.

Wheeler, A. A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Low-speed flowfield characterization by infrared measurements of surface temperatures

An experimental program was aimed at identifying areas in low speed aerodynamic research where infrared imaging systems can make significant contributions. Implementing a new technique, a long electrically heated wire was placed across a laminar jet. By measuring the temperature distribution along the wire with the IR imaging camera, the flow behavior was identified. Furthermore, using Nusselt number correlations, the velocity distribution could be deduced. The same approach was used to survey wakes behind cylinders in a wind-tunnel. This method is suited to investigate flows with position dependent velocities, e.g., boundary layers, confined flows, jets, wakes, and shear layers. It was found that the IR imaging camera cannot accurately track high gradient temperature fields. A correlation procedure was devised to account for this limitation. Other wind-tunnel experiments included tracking the development of the laminar boundary layer over a warmed flat plate by measuring the chordwise temperature distribution. This technique was applied also to the flow downstream from a rearward facing step. Finally, the IR imaging system was used to study boundary layer behavior over an airfoil at angles of attack from zero up to separation. The results were confirmed with tufts observable both visually and with the IR imaging camera.

Gartenberg, E.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Response Surface Methods for Spatially-Resolved Optical Measurement Techniques

Danehy, P. M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Response Surface Methods For Spatially-Resolved Optical Measurement Techniques

Response surface methods (or methodology), RSM, have been applied to improve data quality for two vastly different spatially-resolved optical measurement techniques. In the first application, modern design of experiments (MDOE) methods, including RSM, are employed to map the temperature field in a direct-connect supersonic combustion test facility at NASA Langley Research Center. The laser-based measurement technique known as coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy (CARS) is used to measure temperature at various locations in the combustor. RSM is then used to develop temperature maps of the flow. Even though the temperature fluctuations at a single point in the flowfield have a standard deviation on the order of 300 K, RSM provides analytic fits to the data having 95% confidence interval half width uncertainties in the fit as low as +/- 30 K. Methods of optimizing future CARS experiments are explored. The second application of RSM is to quantify the shape of a 5-meter diameter, ultra-lightweight, inflatable space antenna at NASA Langley Research Center. Photogrammetry is used to simultaneously measure the shape of the antenna at approximately 500 discrete spatial locations. RSM allows an analytic model to be developed that describes the shape of the majority of the antenna with an uncertainty of 0.4 mm, with 95% confidence. This model would allow a quantitative comparison between the actual shape of the antenna and the original design shape. Accurately determining this shape also allows confident interpolation between the measured points. Such a model could, for example, be used for ray tracing of radio-frequency waves up to 95 GHz. to predict the performance of the antenna.

Danehy, P. M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Some velocity field results from the thermocapillary flow experiment aboard USML-1 spacelab

Results are reported of the Surface Tension Driven Convection Experiment (STDCE) aboard USML-1 Spacelab. Steady and transient thermocapillary flows were investigated in a 10 cm dia. circular container filled with 10 Cs silicone oil. The velocity and temperature fields were studied in detail under various conditions. It is shown in this paper how the Marangoni number affects the velocity field. A numerical analysis of the flows was also conducted and its results were compared to the experimental data. Good agreement is shown.

Kamotani, Y.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Finite-element solutions for geothermal systems

Vector potential and scalar potential are used to formulate the governing equations for a single-component and single-phase geothermal system. By assuming an initial temperature field, the fluid velocity can be determined which, in turn, is used to calculate the convective heat transfer. The energy equation is then solved by considering convected heat as a distributed source. Using the resulting temperature to compute new source terms, the final results are obtained by iterations of the procedure. Finite-element methods are proposed for modeling of realistic geothermal systems; the advantages of such methods are discussed. The developed methodology is then applied to a sample problem. Favorable agreement is obtained by comparisons with a previous study.

Chen, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Study of Magnetic Damping Effect on Convection and Solidification Under G-Jitter Conditions

As shown by NASA resources dedicated to measuring residual gravity (SAMS and OARE systems), g-jitter is a critical issue affecting space experiments on solidification processing of materials. This study aims to provide, through extensive numerical simulations and ground based experiments, an assessment of the use of magnetic fields in combination with microgravity to reduce the g-jitter induced convective flows in space processing systems. We have so far completed asymptotic analyses based on the analytical solutions for g-jitter driven flow and magnetic field damping effects for a simple one-dimensional parallel plate configuration, and developed both 2-D and 3-D numerical models for g-jitter driven flows in simple solidification systems with and without presence of an applied magnetic field. Numerical models have been checked with the analytical solutions and have been applied to simulate the convective flows and mass transfer using both synthetic g-jitter functions and the g-jitter data taken from space flight. Some useful findings have been obtained from the analyses and the modeling results. Some key points may be summarized as follows: (1) the amplitude of the oscillating velocity decreases at a rate inversely proportional to the g-jitter frequency and with an increase in the applied magnetic field; (2) the induced flow approximately oscillates at the same frequency as the affecting g-jitter, but out of a phase angle; (3) the phase angle is a complicated function of geometry, applied magnetic field, temperature gradient and frequency; (4) g-jitter driven flows exhibit a complex fluid flow pattern evolving in time; (5) the damping effect is more effective for low frequency flows; and (6) the applied magnetic field helps to reduce the variation of solutal distribution along the solid-liquid interface. Work in progress includes numerical simulations and ground-based measurements. Both 2-D and 3-D numerical simulations are being continued to obtain further information on g-jitter driven flows and magnetic field effects. A physical model for ground-based measurements is completed and some measurements of the oscillating convection are being taken on the physical model. The comparison of the measurements with numerical simulations is in progress. Additional work planned in the project will also involve extending the 2-D numerical model to include the solidification phenomena with the presence of both g-jitter and magnetic fields.

Li, Ben Q.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Study of Magnetic Damping Effect on Convection and Solidification Under G-Jitter Conditions

As shown in space flight experiments, g-jitter is a critical issue affecting solidification processing of materials in microgravity. This study aims to provide, through extensive numerical simulations and ground based experiments, an assessment of the use of magnetic fields in combination with microgravity to reduce the g-jitter induced convective flows in space processing systems. Analytical solutions and 2-D and 3-D numerical models for g-jitter driven flows in simple solidification systems with and without the presence of an applied magnetic field have been developed and extensive analyses were carried out. A physical model was also constructed and PIV measurements compared reasonably well with predictions from numerical models. Some key points may be summarized as follows: (1) the amplitude of the oscillating velocity decreases at a rate inversely proportional to the g-jitter frequency and with an increase in the applied magnetic field; (2) the induced flow oscillates at approximately the same frequency as the affecting g-jitter, but out of a phase angle; (3) the phase angle is a complicated function of geometry, applied magnetic field, temperature gradient and frequency; (4) g-jitter driven flows exhibit a complex fluid flow pattern evolving in time; (5) the damping effect is more effective for low frequency flows; and (6) the applied magnetic field helps to reduce the variation of solutal distribution along the solid-liquid interface. Work in progress includes developing numerical models for solidification phenomena with the presence of both g-jitter and magnetic fields and developing a ground-based physical model to verify numerical predictions.

Li, Ben Q.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Thermal Structure of Titan's Troposphere and Middle Atmosphere

The thermal structure of Titan's atmosphere is reviewed, with particular emphasis on recent Cassini-Huygens results. Titan's has a similar troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere pattern like Earth, but with a much more extended atmosphere, because of the weaker gravity, and also much lower temperatures, because of its greater distance from the sun. Titan's atmosphere exhibits an unusually large range in radiative relaxation times. In the troposphere, these are long compared to seasonal time scales, but in the stratosphere they are much shorter than a season. An exception is near the winter pole, where the stratospheric relaxation times at 100-170 km become comparable to the seasonal time scale; at the warm stratopause, they are comparable to a Titan day. Hence, seasonal behavior in the troposphere should be muted, but significant in the stratosphere. This is reflected in the small meridional contrast observed in temperatures in the troposphere and the large stratospheric contrasts noted above. A surprising feature of the vertical profiles of temperature is the abrupt transition between these regimes in at high northern latitudes in winter, where the temperatures in the lower stratosphere exhibit a sudden drop with increasing altitude. This could be a radiative effect, not associated with spatial variations in gaseous opacity, but rather from an optically thick condensate at thermal-infrared wavelengths. A curious aspect of Titan's middle atmosphere is that the axis of symmetry of the temperature field is tilted by several degrees relative to the rotational axis of the moon itself. Whether this is driven by solar heating or gravitational perturbations is not known. Titan's surface exhibits weak contrasts in temperature, approximately 3 K in the winter hemisphere. At low latitudes, there is evidence of a weak nocturnal boundary layer on the morning terminator, which is not radiatively controlled, but can be explained in terms of vertical mixing with a small eddy viscosity.

Flasar, F. M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Data Assimilation of AIRS Water Vapor Profiles: Impact on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western of the United States

Atmospheric rivers are transient, narrow regions in the atmosphere responsible for the transport of large amounts of water vapor. These phenomena can have a large impact on precipitation. In particular, they can be responsible for intense rain events on the western coast of North America during the winter season. This paper focuses on attempts to improve forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Western US due to atmospheric rivers. Profiles of water vapor derived from from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations are combined with GFS forecasts by a three-dimensional variational data assimilation in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI). Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forecasts initialized from the combined field are compared to forecasts initialized from the GFS forecast only for 3 test cases in the winter of 2011. Results will be presented showing the impact of the AIRS profile data on water vapor and temperature fields, and on the resultant precipitation forecasts.

Blankenship, Clay↗

NASA NTRS1965

Ground testing at MSFC

The large-scale field collection of acoustic data and their analysis are described in this review. The entire sound-field program has the purpose of solving complex problems of excessive noise propagation associated with the static test firing of large space-booster powerplants. The site of data collection has been Mississippi Test Facility (MTF), where far-field sound-propagation and correlated meteorological measurements were initiated in 1962. The statistical evaluation of sound-measurement data shows that the polar distribution of sound in the springtime (at MTF) is determined mainly by the temperature field of the atmosphere. Greater deformation of sound-intensity polar distribution occurs in the autumn as a result of the influence of the wind field. The data on sound attenuation as a function of distance from its source revealed attenuation in excess of the expected magnitude. The excess was mainly between 1 and 10 kilometers from the source, with maximum attenuation (17 to 18 decibels) near 6 kilometers. Excess sound attenuation was compared with calculated sound dispersion. For all sound frequencies in all seasons the deviation between reference and empirical attenuation values formed a bell-shaped distribution on a semilogarithmic plot. The physical causes for the sound- attenuation behavior are considered to be atmospheric diffraction and scattering effects. Statistical analysis of sod-intensity extremes indicated amplification of the sound signals by focusing which could be expected along selected azimuths. Empirical amplification values showed the maximum occurring in winter (50 decibels at 22 kilometers). For the analysis of correlation between empirical sound data and local atmospheric sound- propagation conditions, #e concept of analytical classification of sound-velocity profiles has been developed. Examination of over a quarter-million individual sound-velocity profiles indicates that 33 profile types for heights up to 3 kilometers constitute the empirical possibilities of sound-propagation conditions in southeastern United States. Since the focusing qualities of each sound- velocity profile can be determined as a class characteristic, the overall probabilities of focusing occurrence can he obtained. The severity of focusing, as based upon lateral spread of focusing areas, has been determined. The data for MTF indicate focusing is most severe in winter, with the direction toward east being most affected. Sound propagation is a fluctuating phenomenon because atmospheric conditions vary continuously. A measuring system for analyzing the nonstationary sound-propagation phenomena has been established. The analysis of the acoustic fluctuation data is sup- posed to provide "dynamic” perturbation functions of sound, which are to be superimposed on the related characteristic sound-velocity-profile type. The ultimate result of the program will be the establishment of reliable contingency tables showing the relationship between atmospheric parameters and far-field sound intensities. These data will be the basis for more accurate sound-propagation forecasting for static firing tests.

STATIC TESTING↗

NASA NTRS1980

Structure and meteorology of the middle atmosphere of Venus Infrared remote sensing from the Pioneer orbiter

The results of the Pioneer Venus orbiter radiometric temperature-sounding experiment are presented with examples of each of the primary data products. The measured temperature field is used to model the dynamics of the middle atmosphere from 60 to 140 km, and the thermal and solar fluxes are used to calculate the planetary radiation budget. The data for the diurnal variation of temperature at a given height show fairly small amplitudes up to an altitude of about 95 km, above which the day to night contrast increases rapidly with height. At the equator the dependence of temperature in the stratosphere on solar longitude is dominated by a wave number 2 solar tide with an amplitude of about 10 K. The equator to pole gradients are larger than expected, and the stratosphere is typically 15 to 20 K warmer at the pole than at the equator. The most significant discovery concerning the cloud morphology is a dipole structure consisting of two clearings in the cloud at locations straddling the pole and rotating around it every 2.7 days.

Taylor, F. W.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Data Analysis Techniques for Fan Performance in Highly-Distorted Flows from Boundary Layer Ingesting Inlets

The design of a unique distortion-tolerant fan for a high-bypass ratio boundary-layer ingesting propulsion system has been completed and a rig constructed and tested in the NASA Glenn 8’x6’ wind tunnel. Processing the data from the experiment presented some interesting challenges because of the complexity of the experimental setup and the flow through the test rig. The experiment was run in three phases, each of which employed a unique complement of inlet throat and fan face instrumentation to avoid the blockage that would have resulted from simultaneously installing all of the rakes. The measurement from the individual test points were subsequently combined to compute the overall stage performance. A CFD model of the experiment was used to gain understanding of the flow field and to test some of the techniques proposed for interpolating and extrapolating the measurements into regions where measurements were not made. This capability became extremely useful when it was discovered that there was an unexpected total temperature distortion in the tunnel. The CFD model was modified by inserting a total temperature profile at the upstream boundary that mimicked the measured distortion where measurements were available and that CFD solution was used to investigate methods to infer the complete total temperature field at the fan face.

Hardin, Larry W.↗