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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

ESS-DIVE guidelines for archiving terrestrial model data

This dataset contains supporting documents and images for ESS-DIVE terrestrial model data archiving guidelines.Terrestrial models are broadly defined as numerical models that couple both land dynamics and energy, water, carbon, or nutrient fluxes. We created these guidelines based on input from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Biological and Environmental Research land modeling community. The guidelines are intended to help modelers determine which components of their terrestrial model data associated with publication should be archived. Based on input from the land modeling community, the guidelines recommend archiving both model input and testing data, as well as code, script, and metadata. The guidelines also recommend archiving model data output, depending on the limitations set by data repositories. Lastly, we provide recommendations for bundling data files for publication as well as a discussion about tools that can facilitate model data archiving and reuse.This dataset is an archive of the associated GitHub repository for our model archiving guidelines (https://github.com/ess-dive-community/essdive-model-data-archiving-guidelines). The ‘README.pdf’ file gives a general introduction to the guidelines, and the ‘instructions.pdf’ file provides more detailed steps for following the guidelines. We also provide 2 figures in this data package: 1) a decision tree (model_data_guidelines_decision_tree.png) that can help users determine which components of their model data to archive. and 2) the ‘model_data_guidelines_flmd.png’ file depicts the different files that can be archived in addition to the model data itself. Lastly, we include 3 digitized tables from our associated manuscript and 3 CSV files with anonymized input from DOE scientists about the importance of different aspects of model data archiving from which we developed the guidelines.Dataset updates for v1.1.0: We updated this data package on 2021-11-22 in response to review comments on our related manuscript. In this update we removed one figure so that the model archiving guidelines are conveyed in text rather than an image. We updated the file-level metadata (FLMD) figure to be in accord with the most recent FLMD recommendations. We made minor edits to the README file to update the recommended citation and added two co-authors. We also added 6 new data files (3 are anonymized input from DOE scientists that helped to inform guidelines, and 3 are digitized tables from our manuscript.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Brassica rapa Domestication: Untangling Wild and Feral Forms and Convergence of Crop Morphotypes

The study of domestication contributes to our knowledge of evolution and crop genetic resources. Human selection has shaped wild Brassica rapa into diverse turnip, leafy, and oilseed crops. Despite its worldwide economic importance and potential as a model for understanding diversification under domestication, insights into the number of domestication events and initial crop(s) domesticated in B. rapa have been limited due to a lack of clarity about the wild or feral status of conspecific noncrop relatives. To address this gap and reconstruct the domestication history of B. rapa, we analyzed 68,468 genotyping-by-sequencing-derived single nucleotide polymorphisms for 416 samples in the largest diversity panel of domesticated and weedy B. rapa to date. To further understand the center of origin, we modeled the potential range of wild B. rapa during the mid-Holocene. Our analyses of genetic diversity across B. rapa morphotypes suggest that noncrop samples from the Caucasus, Siberia, and Italy may be truly wild, whereas those occurring in the Americas and much of Europe are feral. Clustering, tree-based analyses, and parameterized demographic inference further indicate that turnips were likely the first crop type domesticated, from which leafy types in East Asia and Europe were selected from distinct lineages. These findings clarify the domestication history and nature of wild crop genetic resources for B. rapa, which provides the first step toward investigating cases of possible parallel selection, the domestication and feralization syndrome, and novel germplasm for Brassica crop improvement.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mycorrhizal associations of tree species influence soil nitrogen dynamics via effects on soil acid–base chemistry

Across all spatial scales, ECM-dominated forests were associated with greater soil acidity. In particular, ECM-dominated soils exhibited lower soil pH and base cations, although the magnitude of mycorrhizal-associated differences in soil acid–base chemistry depended on the biomes, with differences being more pronounced in temperate than in sub/tropical forests. Higher lignin and lower base cations in ECM tree leaf litter were related to greater soil acidity in ECM-dominated forests. Moreover, the lower inorganic N concentrations and slower N transformation rates in ECM-dominated forests were associated with their greater soil acidity. Our results indicate that the scale-invariant feedbacks between plant nutrient-use strategies and soil properties have the potential to impact forest community assembly and ecosystem processes, particularly in the context of global change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Colonization of Naive Roots from Populus tremula × alba Involves Successive Waves of Fungi and Bacteria with Different Trophic Abilities

ABSTRACT Through their roots, trees interact with a highly complex community of microorganisms belonging to various trophic guilds and contributing to tree nutrition, development, and protection against stresses. Tree roots select for specific microbial species from the bulk soil communities. The root microbiome formation is a dynamic process, but little is known on how the different microorganisms colonize the roots and how the selection occurs. To decipher whether the final composition of the root microbiome is the product of several waves of colonization by different guilds of microorganisms, we planted sterile rooted cuttings of gray poplar obtained from plantlets propagated in axenic conditions in natural poplar stand soil. We analyzed the root microbiome at different time points between 2 and 50 days of culture by combining high-throughput Illumina MiSeq sequencing of the fungal ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer and bacterial 16S rRNA amplicons with confocal laser scanning microscopy observations. The microbial colonization of poplar roots took place in three stages, but bacteria and fungi had different dynamics. Root bacterial communities were clearly different from those in the soil after 2 days of culture. In contrast, if fungi were also already colonizing roots after 2 days, the initial communities were very close to that in the soil and were dominated by saprotrophs. They were slowly replaced by endophytes and ectomycorhizal fungi. The replacement of the most abundant fungal and bacterial community members observed in poplar roots over time suggest potential competition effect between microorganisms and/or a selection by the host. IMPORTANCE The tree root microbiome is composed of a very diverse set of bacterial and fungal communities. These microorganisms have a profound impact on tree growth, development, and protection against different types of stress. They mainly originate from the bulk soil and colonize the root system, which provides a unique nutrient-rich environment for a diverse assemblage of microbial communities. In order to better understand how the tree root microbiome is shaped over time, we observed the composition of root-associated microbial communities of naive plantlets of poplar transferred in natural soil. The composition of the final root microbiome relies on a series of colonization stages characterized by the dominance of different fungal guilds and bacterial community members over time. Our observations suggest an early stabilization of bacterial communities, whereas fungal communities are established following a more gradual pattern.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Carbon cycling across ecosystem succession in a north temperate forest: Controls and management implications

Despite decades of progress, much remains unknown about successional trajectories of carbon (C) cycling in north temperate forests. Drivers and mechanisms of these changes, including the role of different types of disturbances, are particularly elusive. To address this gap, we synthesized decades of data from experimental chronosequences and long-term monitoring at a well-studied, regionally representative field site in northern Michigan, USA. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of changes in above- and belowground ecosystem components over two centuries of succession, links temporal dynamics in C pools and fluxes with underlying drivers, and offers several conceptual insights to the field of forest ecology. Our first advance shows how temporal dynamics in some ecosystem components are consistent across severe disturbances that reset succession and partial disturbances that slightly modify it: both of these disturbance types increase soil N availability, alter fungal community composition, and alter growth and competitive interactions between short-lived pioneer and longer-lived tree taxa. Further, these changes in turn affect soil C stocks, respiratory emissions, and other belowground processes. Second, we show that some other ecosystem components have effects on C cycling that are not consistent over the course of succession. For example, canopy structure does not influence C uptake early in succession but becomes important as stands develop, and the importance of individual structural properties changes over the course of two centuries of stand development. Third, we show that in recent decades, climate change is masking or overriding the influence of community composition on C uptake, while respiratory emissions are sensitive to both climatic and compositional change. In synthesis, we emphasize that time is not a driver of C cycling; it is a dimension within which ecosystem drivers such as canopy structure, tree and microbial community composition change. Changes in those drivers, not in forest age, are what control forest C trajectories, and those changes can happen quickly or slowly, through natural processes or deliberate intervention. Stemming from this view and a whole-ecosystem perspective on forest succession, we offer management applications from this work and assess its broader relevance to understanding long-term change in other north temperate forest ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

High foliar K and P resorption efficiencies in old-growth tropical forests growing on nutrient-poor soils

Resorption is the active withdrawal of nutrients before leaf abscission. This mechanism represents an important strategy to maintain efficient nutrient cycling; however, resorption is poorly characterized in old-growth tropical forests growing in nutrientpoor soils. We investigated nutrient resorption from leaves in 39 tree species in two tropical forests on the Guiana Shield, French Guiana, to investigate whether resorption efficiencies varied with soil nutrient, seasonality, and species traits. The stocks of P in leaves, litter, and soil were low at both sites, indicating potential P limitation of the forests. Accordingly, mean resorption efficiencies were higher for P (35.9%) and potassium (K; 44.6%) than for nitrogen (N; 10.3%). K resorption was higher in the wet (70.2%) than in the dry (41.7%) season. P resorption increased slightly with decreasing total soil P; and N and P resorptions were positively related to their foliar concentrations. We conclude that nutrient resorption is a key plant nutrition strategy in these old-growth tropical forests, that trees with high foliar nutrient concentration reabsorb more nutrient, and that nutrients resorption in leaves, except P, are quite decoupled from nutrients in the soil. Seasonality and biochemical limitation played a role in the resorption of nutrients in leaves, but species-specific requirements obscured general tendencies at stand and ecosystem level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nitrogen addition alters soil fungal communities, but root fungal communities are resistant to change

Plants are colonized by numerous microorganisms serving important symbiotic functions that are vital to plant growth and success. Understanding and harnessing these interactions will be useful in both managed and natural ecosystems faced with global change, but it is still unclear how variation in environmental conditions and soils influence the trajectory of these interactions. In this study, we examine how nitrogen addition alters plant-fungal interactions within two species of Populus - Populus deltoides and P. trichocarpa. In this experiment, we manipulated plant host, starting soil (native vs. away for each tree species), and nitrogen addition in a fully factorial replicated design. After ~10 weeks of growth, we destructively harvested the plants and characterized plant growth factors and the soil and root endosphere fungal communities using targeted amplicon sequencing of the ITS2 gene region. Overall, we found nitrogen addition altered plant growth factors, e.g., plant height, chlorophyll density, and plant N content. Interestingly, nitrogen addition resulted in a lower fungal alpha diversity in soils but not plant roots. Further, there was an interactive effect of tree species, soil origin, and nitrogen addition on soil fungal community composition. Starting soils collected from Oregon and West Virginia were dominated by the ectomycorrhizal fungi Inocybe (55.8% relative abundance), but interestingly when P. deltoides was grown in its native West Virginia soil, the roots selected for a high abundance of the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, Rhizophagus. These results highlight the importance of soil origin and plant species on establishing plant-fungal interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Disturbance and diversity: Lichen species richness decreases with increasing anthropogenic disturbance

Anthropogenic disturbance is rapidly increasing through habitat degradation, development, and deforestation. Gaps remain in understanding the effects of this disturbance on diverse and ecologically important organisms such as lichens. In North America, studies have focused on epiphytic macrolichens and catastrophic disturbance, largely ignoring microlichens and less severe disturbances. The Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis predicts these moderate disturbances will lead to higher species richness. Here we examine the effects of anthropogenic disturbance in the form of land management on overall lichen richness, including microlichens, and on the species richness of eight lichen functional groups. The study draws on a comprehensive data set of 872 species, in 208 one-hectare plots throughout the Southern Appalachian Mountains, a global biodiversity hotspot in eastern North America. A habitat quality index based on an established forestry metric was used as a proxy for anthropogenic disturbance and was quantified using a 10-part score including categories such as percent native tree canopy cover and degree of fragmentation. Linear models were used to compare habitat quality scores to overall species richness and to species richness of functional groups. Rather than following the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis, all groups uniformly follow a negative linear relationship: as disturbance increases, species richness decreases. This pattern held even for widely variable functional groups such as morphotype. Effective conservation of lichen richness should prioritize the maintenance of existing older, less-disturbed stands within large, contiguously forested areas.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Populus VariantDB v3.2 facilitates CRISPR and functional genomics research

The success of CRISPR genome editing studies depends critically on the precision of guide RNA (gRNA) design. Sequence polymorphisms in outcrossing tree species pose design hazards that can render CRISPR genome editing ineffective. Despite recent advances in tree genome sequencing with haplotype resolution, sequence polymorphism information remains largely inaccessible to various functional genomics research efforts. The Populus VariantDB v3.2 addresses these challenges by providing a user-friendly search engine to query sequence polymorphisms of heterozygous genomes. The database accepts short sequences, such as gRNAs and primers, as input for searching against multiple poplar genomes, including hybrids, with customizable parameters. We provide examples to showcase the utilities of VariantDB in improving the precision of gRNA or primer design. The platform-agnostic nature of the probe search design makes Populus VariantDB v3.2 a versatile tool for the rapidly evolving CRISPR field and other sequence-sensitive functional genomics applications. The database schema is expandable and can accommodate additional tree genomes to broaden its user base.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparative transcriptomics uncovers poplar and fungal genetic determinants of ectomycorrhizal compatibility

Ectomycorrhizal symbiosis supports tree growth and is crucial for nutrient cycling and temperate and boreal ecosystems functioning. The establishment of functional ectomycorrhiza (ECM) first requires the association of compatible partners. However, host and fungal genetic determinants governing mycorrhizal compatibility are unknown. To identify such factors in poplar and its fungal associates, we mined existing and de novo tree and fungal transcriptional datasets. We identified co-expressed genes enabling ECM symbiosis at early and mature stages of the interaction. These sets of genes can be divided into general fungal-sensing and ECM-specific components. We highlight the importance of fungal modulation of plant JA-related defenses and the regulation of secretory pathways for ECM compatibility, including upregulation of key fungal small secreted proteins, the downregulation of plant secreted peroxidases, and the downregulation of plant cell wall remodeling proteins concomitantly with the upregulation of fungal glycosyl hydrolases acting on pectin. Not only gene regulation, but also its temporal scale and dynamics seem to play a crucial role for mycorrhizal compatibility. The expression profile of the host Common Symbiosis Pathway and nutrient transporters was also studied, revealing constitutive levels of expression and moderate upregulation in compatible ECM interactions. Overall, these results underscore the importance of novel biological functions during the establishment of ECM symbiosis, help us gain insights into the molecular events determining mycorrhiza compatibility, and serve as a data-rich transcriptomic resource to open new research questions in the field.

Marqués‐Gálvez, José Eduardo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Root identification in minirhizotron imagery with multiple instance learning

In this study, multiple instance learning (MIL) algorithms to automatically perform root detection and segmentation in minirhizotron imagery using only image-level labels are proposed. Root and soil characteristics vary from location to location, and thus, supervised machine learning approaches that are trained with local data provide the best ability to identify and segment roots in minirhizotron imagery. However, labeling roots for training data (or otherwise) is an extremely tedious and time-consuming task. This paper aims to address this problem by labeling data at the image level (rather than the individual root or root pixel level) and train algorithms to perform individual root pixel level segmentation using MIL strategies. Three MIL methods (multiple instance adaptive cosine coherence estimator, multiple instance support vector machine, multiple instance learning with randomized trees) were applied to root detection and compared to non-MIL approaches. The results show that MIL methods improve root segmentation in challenging minirhizotron imagery and reduce the labeling burden. In our results, multiple instance support vector machine outperformed other methods. The multiple instance adaptive cosine coherence estimator algorithm was a close second with an added advantage that it learned an interpretable root signature which identified the traits used to distinguish roots from soil and did not require parameter selection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advances in scientific literature mining for interpreting materials characterization

Abstract Using synchrotron light sources, such as the National Synchrotron Light Source II at Brookhaven National Laboratory, scientists in fields as diverse as physics, biology, and materials science, identify the atomic structure, chemical composition, or other important properties of varied specimens. x-ray spectroscopy from light sources is particularly valuable for materials research with vast information available about reference spectra in the scientific literature. However, as the technique is applicable to many science domains, searching for information about select x-ray spectroscopy spectra is impeded by the sheer number of publications. Moreover, useful information about the context of an experiment or figures presented in papers can be buried among the details, which takes time to assess. This work presents a scientific literature mining system that supports data acquisition, information extraction, and user interaction for referencing x-ray spectra identification and spectral interpretation. The goal is to provide efficient access to useful spectral data to researchers who may spend only a few days at a synchrotron light source. With this system, users browse a classification tree for papers arranged according to x-ray spectroscopic methods, chemical elements, and x-ray absorption spectroscopy edges. Relevant figures are extracted with sentences from the paper that explain them, known as ‘figure explanatory text.’ Notably, this system focuses on semantic aspects (logical analysis) to find figure explanatory text using deep contextualized word embeddings techniques and contains an interface to obtain labeled data from domain experts that is used to evaluate and improve the model.

Park, Gilchan (ORCID:0000000201536646)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Water foraging with dynamic roots in E3SM; The role of roots in terrestrial ecosystem memory on intermediate timescales (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems can show sustained responses to stress events that may last for years after the initial perturbation. This phenomenon is referred to as legacy or memory and it emerges from a set of ecosystem processes that are poorly captured by Earth System and Land Surface Models. Consequently, these models struggle to predict the impact that extreme climate events have on surface energy, carbon and hydrological exchange once a stressor such as drought has relaxed or in response to repeated exposure to stress. In this project, we set out to test how the addition of dynamic root profiles in land surface models impact the capacity for Earth System Models, such as the Department of Energy’s E3SM, to capture realistic legacy effects. Observations have shown that vegetation shifts their root profiles during stress events to forage for water and these altered root profiles may take years to relax back to the initial state. We hypothesized that the alteration of the belowground root structures may be a source of terrestrial ecosystem legacy that is missing from models. To test this idea we undertook three core activities. (1) We developed a global-scale analysis of the impact of dynamic roots on ecosystem legacy building from a recently developed dynamic root module. (2) We developed new root dynamics in the DOE’s Energy Land Model (ELM) that allowed not only root profiles to shift their profile but also simultaneously alter carbon allocation to fine root pools. We then tested the impact of these new dynamics with intensive sensitivity analysis at four long-term AmeriFlux sites. (3) We undertook detailed isotopic analysis of tree rings from these AmeriFlux sites to assess ecophysiological and ecohydrological legacy to stress events that can be used to benchmark the sensitivity experiments with ELM. From these core activities, we report the following key findings. Firstly, on a global scale, the addition of dynamic roots led to chronically water-stressed ecosystems recovering faster to climate stress while wetter ecosystem showed enhanced legacy. This is because across ecosystems, stress events were almost universally associated with water shortages that led to the development of deeper root profiles. These deeper root profiles proved beneficial for recovery from drought stress. While the root dynamics did not universally improve the modeled representation of legacy it showed complex transient dynamics that emerge from the addition of dynamic roots. Secondly, the sensitivity analysis illustrated long term shifts in rooting depths away from the prescribed default profile suggesting that initializing of root profiles could benefit from spin-up simulations that converge on locally optimized root profiles. In addition, by enabling dynamic allocation some of the sites predicted unrealistically low allocation to roots (and high allocation to leaves). While these changes did not dramatically alter modeled gross primary productivity, they illustrated that without more sophisticated root processes in models, there is little penalty to dramatically disinvest in roots. Thirdly, the isotopic analysis of tree rings showed highly distinct legacy responses across species and sites. For example, T. canadensis showed reduced transpiration the year after stress events illustrated by sustained elevated $\delta^{18}$O. In contrast, A saccharum displayed elevated $\delta^{13}$C associated with reduced stomatal conductance in response to the previous years’ stress event. These geochemical signatures of legacy were present despite tree growth returning to normal the year after the stress. The results show the importance of species-level dynamics in legacy that are absent in modeling that assumes common traits within plant functional types. In summary, the work here established new avenues to explore root dynamics in models while illustrating how additional root processes are needed before dynamic carbon allocation can be implemented. Lastly, this project provided mentorship to a postdoctoral fellow, training for an early career scientist and multiple undergraduate students recruited from a minority serving institution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The ‘photosynthetic C 1 pathway’ links carbon assimilation and growth in California poplar

Although primarily studied in relation to photorespiration, serine metabolism in chloroplasts may play a key role in plant CO 2 fertilization responses by linking CO 2 assimilation with growth. Here, we show that the phosphorylated serine pathway is part of a 'photosynthetic C 1 pathway' and demonstrate its high activity in foliage of a C 3 tree where it rapidly integrates photosynthesis and C 1 metabolism contributing to new biomass via methyl transfer reactions, imparting a large natural 13 C-depleted signature. Using 13 CO 2 -labelling, we show that leaf serine, the S-methyl group of leaf methionine, pectin methyl esters, and the associated methanol released during cell wall expansion during growth, are directly produced from photosynthetically-linked C 1 metabolism, within minutes of light exposure. We speculate that the photosynthetic C 1 pathway is highly conserved across the photosynthetic tree of life, is responsible for synthesis of the greenhouse gas methane, and may have evolved with oxygenic photosynthesis by providing a mechanism of directly linking carbon and ammonia assimilation with growth. Although the rise in atmospheric CO 2 inhibits major metabolic pathways like photorespiration, our results suggest that the photosynthetic C 1 pathway may accelerate and represents a missing link between enhanced photosynthesis and plant growth rates during CO 2 fertilization under a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate change–induced stress disrupts ectomycorrhizal interaction networks at the boreal–temperate ecotone

The interaction networks formed by ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF) and their tree hosts, which are important to both forest recruitment and ecosystem carbon and nutrient retention, may be particularly susceptible to climate change at the boreal–temperate forest ecotone where environmental conditions are changing rapidly. Here, we quantified the compositional and functional trait responses of EMF communities and their interaction networks with two boreal ( Pinus banksiana and Betula papyrifera ) and two temperate ( Pinus strobus and Quercus macrocarpa ) hosts to a factorial combination of experimentally elevated temperatures and reduced rainfall in a long-term open-air field experiment. The study was conducted at the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment in Minnesota, USA, where infrared lamps and buried heating cables elevate temperatures (ambient, +3.1 °C) and rain-out shelters reduce growing season precipitation (ambient, ~30% reduction). EMF communities were characterized and interaction networks inferred from metabarcoding of fungal-colonized root tips. Warming and rainfall reduction significantly altered EMF community composition, leading to an increase in the relative abundance of EMF with contact-short distance exploration types. These compositional changes, which likely limited the capacity for mycelial connections between trees, corresponded with shifts from highly redundant EMF interaction networks under ambient conditions to less redundant (more specialized) networks. Further, the observed changes in EMF communities and interaction networks were correlated with changes in soil moisture and host photosynthesis. Collectively, these results indicate that the projected changes in climate will likely lead to significant shifts in the traits, structure, and integrity of EMF communities as well as their interaction networks in forest ecosystems at the boreal–temperate ecotone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Raman Spectroscopy to Detect and Measure NOW Pheromones

Insect sex pheromones are chemical compounds that insects release to attract mates over distances of hundreds of meters or even kilometers, in complete darkness and without any audible signals. Use of synthetic forms of key compounds have in some cases become an essential component of monitoring and/or managing key pests of agricultural crops, including navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella) (NOW) in California tree nuts. There are currently multiple commercially available mating disruption products available for NOW and recent studies have demonstrated that they can effectively help reducing crop damage. How mating disruption works is not fully established and likely varies across products and target species. For instance, it is not well understood how synthetic pheromones compete with natural ones and, in the case of monitoring, how efficaciously the insect follows the diffusing plumes and how those evolve from emission points, especially across large blocks and at plot borders.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prioritizing Countries by Concern Regarding Access to Weapons of Mass Destruction Materials

This article presents a global prioritization methodology that evaluates the relative risks of non-state actor acquisition of materials that could be used in chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and high explosive Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) from the country’s relevant infrastructure. Prioritization is based on three domains: 1. Assessing relative scale of materials in each country, 2. The country’s corresponding security posture, and 3. The presence of threat actors. The output is a list of countries prioritized from greatest risk to least. Rather than providing an overall 1 to N ranking, however, the results are placed into tiers based upon their natural groupings within the three domains. The countries in the highest tiers are flagged as potential US national security concern; those scoring in the middle and at the bottom are flagged as posing lower US national security concern. A systematic approach assesses each country by leveraging many disciplines, such as risk and decision analysis, as well as expert judgement. A quantitative value model based on Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) organizes the objectives scoring criteria into a value tree using lessons learned from previous studies, published literature, and expert judgement. The article presents the prioritization categories and corresponding value model scoring criteria to include measurement type, weight, range, and value preference. Country names and data are notional in order to share the details on the underlying methodology and model without identification of actual security risks. A deliberative process addresses factors external to the model and scrutinizes inputs, methodology, model, and results.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗