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At least 289 records · Page 16

Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Response to Surface Warming in Aquaplanet Simulations With Uniform Thermal Forcing

While many modeling studies have attempted to estimate how tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation is impacted by climate change, the multitude of analysis techniques and methodologies have resulted in varying conclusions. Simplified models may be able to help overcome this problem. Radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) model simulations have been used in various configurations to study fundamental aspects of Earth's climate. While many RCE modeling studies have focused on TC genesis, intensification, and size, limited work has been done using RCE to study TC precipitation. Here, in this study, the response of TC precipitation to sea surface temperature (SST) change is analyzed in global Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) aquaplanet simulations run with Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project protocols, with the addition of planetary rotation. We expect that the insight gained about how TC precipitation responds to SST warming will help predict how TCs in the real world respond to climate change. In the CAM RCE simulations, the warmer SST simulations have less TCs on average, but the TCs tend to be larger in outer size and more intense. As simulation SST increases, more extreme precipitation rates occur within TCs, and more of the TC precipitation comes from these extreme rates. For extreme (99th percentile) TC precipitation, SST, and TC intensity increases dominate the 8.6% per K increase, while TC outer size changes have little impact. For accumulated TC precipitation, SST, and TC intensity contributions are still the majority, but TC outer size changes also contribute to the 6.6% per K increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARM Research in the Equatorial Western Pacific: A Decade and Counting

The tropical western Pacific (TWP) is an important climatic region. Strong solar heating, warm sea surface temperatures, and the annual progression of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) across this region generate abundant convective systems, which through their effects on the heat and water budgets have a profound impact on global climate and precipitation. In order to accurately evaluate tropical cloud systems in models, measurements of tropical clouds, the environment in which they reside, and their impact on the radiation and water budgets are needed. Because of the remote location, ground-based datasets of cloud, atmosphere, and radiation properties from the TWP region have come primarily from short-term field experiments. While providing extremely useful information on physical processes, these short-term datasets are limited in statistical and climatological information. To provide longterm measurements of the surface radiation budget in the tropics and the atmospheric properties that affect it, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program established a measurement site on Manus Island, Papua New Guinea, in 1996 and on the island republic of Nauru in late 1998. These sites provide unique datasets now available for more than 10 years on Manus and Nauru. This article presents examples of the scientific use of these datasets including characterization of cloud properties, analysis of cloud radiative forcing, model studies of tropical clouds and processes, and validation of satellite algorithms. New instrumentation recently installed at the Manus site will provide expanded opportunities for tropical atmospheric science.

tropical regions↗

Raw seedling and sapling census data collected from June 2015 - April 2019 within a tropical wet forest in Puerto Rico

This data package contains data used to evaluate the effects of experimental warming (4˚C above ambient), drought, and hurricane disturbance on species richness, diversity, and composition of understory plant communities across ontogeny at the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) in Luquillo, Puerto Rico. The raw data in this package include a file for the species composition matrix of woody seedlings (>10 cm and <20 cm height; TRACE_composition_seedling.csv) and saplings (>20 cm height; TRACE_composition_sapling.csv) within the six TRACE plots, collected during six census dates from June 2015 to April 2019. Also included is also a file with the species names associated with the species codes found in the composition files (TRACE_species_codes.csv), and a data dictionary file describing the columns in the composition files (data_dictionary_composition_files.csv). All data files are in csv format, with the exception of the metadata which is in xml format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating the Physical Drivers for the Increasing Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard in the United States

In this study, we investigate both the changes of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard in the United States under climate change and the relative importance of the factors that cause the changes. We find that under the SSP5 8.5 scenario, the 100-year TC rainfall level can increase by up to 320% along the U.S. coastline by the end of this century. The influence of TC rainfall-producing ability increase is more significant than the influence of TC frequency increase on the increase of the 100-year TC rainfall level (up to 180% vs. 60% increase). Among the different physical drivers for the increase in storm rainfall-producing ability, the increase of TC intensity is the leading factor, followed by changes in TC duration and atmospheric temperature. The projected increase of TC rainfall hazard is robust against the uncertainty in the TC frequency projection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tropical Three-dimensional Cloud Climatology during El Niño Events with CALIPSO Level-3 Cloud Products

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon that originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean but affects global climate patterns. Its warm phase El Niño occurs irregularly every two to seven years and peaks in winter. A previous case study showed opposite cloud anomalies at high, middle and low altitude regions during a weak 2006/2007 El Niño and a moderate 2009/2010 El Niño, suggesting a non-linear response of tropical clouds to El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. To further understand the cloud response to SST, we examine the three-dimensional (3-D) cloud anomalies during all recent five El Niño events since 2006 using level-3 (L3) cloud products from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) mission. During its 17+ years operation, CALIPSO delivered near-global measurements of cloud and aerosol profiles at unprecedented high resolution and sensitivity. In this work, we provide a comprehensive picture of cloud anomalies during El Niño, with a particular focus on thin cirrus clouds at high altitudes, which are challenging for passive sensor detection algorithms. Specifically, the vertical cloud anomalies are calculated with the L3 3-D Cloud Occurrence Product, the horizontal cloud anomalies are from the L3 Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) product, and the ice cloud extinction profiles and ice water content are obtained from the L3 Ice Cloud product. These findings will improve current knowledge of ENSO from a new perspective.

El Nino↗

The effect of relative humidity and temperature on the response of stomatal conductance to vapor pressure deficit in tropical trees

Understanding how leaf gas exchange responds to changes in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is key to predicting tropical forest resilience to climate change. Stomata regulate leaf water and CO2 diffusion, and respond to changes in temperature and relative humidity (RH), two drivers of VPD. At high temperatures, the cuticular pathway may also become significant and participate in the overall leaf conductance. Here, we measured gas exchange under light and dark conditions to investigate the stomatal and cuticular responses to temperature and RH on detached branches in five tropical tree species. Leaf conductance in the dark, when stomata are essentially closed, was not markedly impacted by temperature and RH, suggesting a minimal response of the cuticular pathway to these conditions. We compared six steady-state conductance models incorporating different effects of photosynthesis and evaporative demand on stomatal control. All models performed well (residual standard deviation, σ, < 0.025 mol m-2 s-1), but the best-fitting model (σ = 0.017 mol m-2 s-1) used a nonlinear relationship between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance and incorporated RH rather than vapor pressure difference. All models overestimated the steady-state conductance at high RH. Furthermore, leaf conductance immediately increased after a decrease in RH (wrong-way response), but not after an increase in leaf temperature. This suggests that the mechanisms underlying stomatal response to VPD need further investigation. The non-linear coupling between photosynthetic rate and stomatal conductance indicates a sharper physiological response than previously acknowledged.

Lamour, Julien↗

Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective

Abstract Future climate simulations feature pronounced spatial shifts in the structure of tropical rainfall. We apply a novel atmospheric energy flux analysis to diagnose late 21st century tropical rainfall shifts in a large ensemble of simulations of 21st century climate. The method reconstructs 2D spatial changes in rainfall based on horizontal shifts in the lines of zero meridional and zonal divergent energy flux, called the energy flux equator (EFE) and energy flux prime meridian (EFPM), respectively. Two main sources of future atmospheric energy flux changes, and hence rainfall shifts, are identified by the analysis: the high-latitude North Atlantic due to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that shifts tropical rainfall southwards over the greater Tropical Atlantic sector and eastern Pacific; and the eastern tropical Pacific due to a permanent El-Niño-like response that produces zonal shifts over the Maritime Continent and South America. To first order, the shifts in the EFE and EFPM mirror gross distributional changes in tropical precipitation, with a southward shift in rainfall over the tropical Atlantic, West Africa, and eastern tropical Pacific and an eastward shift over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific. When used to reconstruct future rainfall shifts in the tropical Atlantic and Sahel, the method reasonably represents the simulated meridional structure of rainfall shifts but does not do so for the zonal structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Clouds and Water Vapor in the Climate System and Radiative Transfer in Clear Air and Cirrus Clouds in the Tropics

Research supported under this grant was aimed at attacking unanswered scientific questions that lie at the intersection of radiation, dynamics, chemistry, and climate. Considerable emphasis was placed on scientific collaboration and the innovative development of instruments required to address these issues. Specific questions include water vapor distribution in the tropical troposphere, atmospheric radiation, thin cirrus clouds, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, and correlative science with satellite observations.

Anderson, James G.↗

Detailed Structure of the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere as Revealed by Balloon Sonde Observations of Water Vapor, Ozone, Temperature, and Winds During the NASA TCSP and TC4 Campaigns

We report on balloon sonde measurements of water vapor and ozone using the cryogenic frost point hygrometer and electrochemical concentration cell ozonesondes made at Alajuela, Costa Rica (10.0 N, 84.2 W) during two NASA airborne campaigns: the Tropical Convective Systems and Processes (TCSP) mission in July 2005 and the Tropical Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC4), July - August 2007. In both campaigns we found an upper troposphere that was frequently supersaturated but no evidence that deep convection had reached the tropopause. The balloon sondes were complemented by campaigns of 4 times daily high-resolution radiosondes from mid-June through mid-August in both years. The radiosonde data reveal vertically propagating equatorial waves that caused a large increase in the variability of temperature in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). These waves episodically produced cold point tropopauses (CPTs) above 18 km, yet in neither campaign was saturation observed above approx 380 K or 17 km. The averages of the water vapor minima below this level were 5.2 ppmv in TCSP and 4.8 ppmv in TC4, and the individual profile minima all lay at or above approx 360 K. The average minima in this 360 C380 K layer provide a better estimate of the effective stratospheric entry value than the average mixing ratio at the CPT. We refer to this upper portion of the TTL as the tropopause saturation layer and consider it to be the locus of the final dehydration of nascent stratospheric air. As such, it is the local equivalent to the tape head of the water vapor tape recorder.

Selkirk, Henry B.↗

Demonstration of Aerosol Property Profiling by Multiwavelength Lidar Under Varying Relative Humidity Conditions

During the months of July-August 2007 NASA conducted a research campaign called the Tropical Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling (TC4) experiment. Vertical profiles of ozone were measured daily using an instrument known as an ozonesonde, which is attached to a weather balloon and launch to altitudes in excess of 30 km. These ozone profiles were measured over coastal Las Tablas, Panama (7.8N, 80W) and several times per week at Alajuela, Costa Rica (ION, 84W). Meteorological systems in the form of waves, detected most prominently in 100-300 in thick ozone layer in the tropical tropopause layer, occurred in 50% (Las Tablas) and 40% (Alajuela) of the soundings. These layers, associated with vertical displacements and classified as gravity waves ("GW," possibly Kelvin waves), occur with similar stricture and frequency over the Paramaribo (5.8N, 55W) and San Cristobal (0.925, 90W) sites of the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network. The gravity wave labeled layers in individual soundings correspond to cloud outflow as indicated by the tracers measured from the NASA DC-8 and other aircraft data, confirming convective initiation of equatorial waves. Layers representing quasi-horizontal displacements, referred to as Rossby waves, are robust features in soundings from 23 July to 5 August. The features associated with Rossby waves correspond to extra-tropical influence, possibly stratospheric, and sometimes to pollution transport. Comparison of Las Tablas and Alajuela ozone budgets with 1999-2007 Paramaribo and San Cristobal soundings shows that TC4 is typical of climatology for the equatorial Americas. Overall during TC4, convection and associated meteorological waves appear to dominate ozone transport in the tropical tropopause layer.

Veselovskii, I.↗

Convective and Wave Signatures in Ozone Profiles Over the Equatorial Americas: Views from TC4 (2007) and SHADOZ

During the months of July-August 2007 NASA conducted a research campaign called the Tropical Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling (TC4) experiment. Vertical profiles of ozone were measured daily using an instrument known as an ozonesonde, which is attached to a weather balloon and launch to altitudes in excess of 30 km. These ozone profiles were measured over coastal Las Tablas, Panama (7.8N, 80W) and several times per week at Alajuela, Costa Rica (ION, 84W). Meteorological systems in the form of waves, detected most prominently in 100- 300 in thick ozone layer in the tropical tropopause layer, occurred in 50% (Las Tablas) and 40% (Alajuela) of the soundings. These layers, associated with vertical displacements and classified as gravity waves ("GW," possibly Kelvin waves), occur with similar stricture and frequency over the Paramaribo (5.8N, 55W) and San Cristobal (0.925, 90W) sites of the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network. The gravity wave labeled layers in individual soundings correspond to cloud outflow as indicated by the tracers measured from the NASA DC-8 and other aircraft data, confirming convective initiation of equatorial waves. Layers representing quasi-horizontal displacements, referred to as Rossby waves, are robust features in soundings from 23 July to 5 August. The features associated with Rossby waves correspond to extra-tropical influence, possibly stratospheric, and sometimes to pollution transport. Comparison of Las Tablas and Alajuela ozone budgets with 1999-2007 Paramaribo and San Cristobal soundings shows that TC4 is typical of climatology for the equatorial Americas. Overall during TC4, convection and associated meteorological waves appear to dominate ozone transport in the tropical tropopause layer.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

Tropical Indian Ocean drives Hadley circulation change in a warming climate

ABSTRACT The weakening and poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation (HC) are considered robust responses of atmospheric meridional circulation to anthropogenic warming. Climate impacts arising from these changes enhance drought conditions and reduce food production in the affected regions. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms of HC changes is critical to anticipating the resultant climate risks. First, we demonstrate that robust future HC changes in boreal winter, and the uncertainty in their future projections, are both largely related to sea surface temperature (SST) warming. Next, we investigate the impact of anthropogenic regional ocean warming on the future HC. Accordingly, we conduct a large ensemble of individual ocean basin perturbation experiments at 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C warming thresholds (as in the Paris Agreement). These experiments highlight (i) the leading role of tropical Indian Ocean warming in HC changes and (ii) inter-model differences in tropical Pacific warming as a source of uncertainty in HC projections.

Sun, Yong (ORCID:0000000210876060)↗

Characteristics of the East Asian Winter Climate Associated with the Westerly Jet Stream and ENSO

In this study, the influences of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of the East Asian winter climate are examined with a focus on the relative climate impacts of the two phenomena. Although the variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and the temperature and precipitation of China, Japan, and Korea are emphasized, the associated changes in the broad-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over Asia and the Pacific and in the extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are also investigated. It is demonstrated that there is no apparent relationship between ENSO and the interannual variability of EAJS core. The EAJS and ENSO are associated with distinctly different patterns of atmospheric circulation and SST in the Asian-Pacific regions. While ENSO causes major climate signals in the Tropics and over the North Pacific east of the dateline, the EAJS produces significant changes in the atmospheric circulation over East Asia and western Pacific. In particular, the EAJS explains larger variance of the interannual signals of the East Asian trough, the Asian continental high, the Aleutian low, and the East Asian winter monsoon. When the EAJS is strong, all these atmospheric systems intensify significantly. The response of surface temperature and precipitation to EAJS variability and ENSO is more complex. In general, the East Asian winter climate is cold (warm) and dry (wet) when the EAJS is strong (weak) and it is warm during El Nino years. However, different climate signals are found during different La Nina years. In terms of linear correlation, both the temperature and precipitation of northern China, Korea, and central Japan are more significantly associated with the EAJS than with ENSO.

Yang, Song↗

Contrasting biological production trends over land and ocean

Terrestrial and marine ecosystems constitute the primary components of the Earth’s biosphere, yet their photosynthetic productions are typically studied separately, which limits understanding of planetary carbon uptake and biosphere health. Here, in this study, using multiple satellite-derived products, we identify contrasting net primary production (NPP) trends between land and ocean, probably reflecting their differential sensitivity to climate warming, especially in tropical regions. Planetary NPP shows an overall increase of 0.11 ± 0.13 PgC yr −1 (P = 0.05) from 2003 to 2021, driven by a significant terrestrial enhancement of 0.20 ± 0.07 PgC yr −1 (P < 0.001) and partially offset by an oceanic decline of −0.12 ± 0.12 PgC yr −1 (P = 0.07). While land contributes to the strong upwards NPP trend, the interannual variability in global NPP is predominantly driven by the ocean, especially during strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation events. Our findings highlight the resilience and potential vulnerability of biosphere primary productivity in a warming climate, calling for integrated land–ocean monitoring and assessment to support climate mitigation initiatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

700,000 years of tropical Andean glaciation

Our understanding of the climatic teleconnections that drove ice-age cycles has been limited by a paucity of well-dated tropical records of glaciation that span several glacial–interglacial intervals. Glacial deposits offer discrete snapshots of glacier extent but cannot provide the continuous records required for detailed interhemispheric comparisons. By contrast, lakes located within glaciated catchments can provide continuous archives of upstream glacial activity, but few such records extend beyond the last glacial cycle. Here a piston core from Lake Junín in the uppermost Amazon basin provides the first, to our knowledge, continuous, independently dated archive of tropical glaciation spanning 700,000 years. We find that tropical glaciers tracked changes in global ice volume and followed a clear approximately 100,000-year periodicity. An enhancement in the extent of tropical Andean glaciers relative to global ice volume occurred between 200,000 and 400,000 years ago, during sustained intervals of regionally elevated hydrologic balance that modified the regular approximately 23,000-year pacing of monsoon-driven precipitation. Millennial-scale variations in the extent of tropical Andean glaciers during the last glacial cycle were driven by variations in regional monsoon strength that were linked to temperature perturbations in Greenland ice cores; these interhemispheric connections may have existed during previous glacial cycles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Influence of Direct Radiative Forcing Versus Indirect Sea Surface Temperature Warming on Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Anticyclones Under Global Warming

Southern hemisphere subtropical anticyclones are projected to change in a warmer climate during both austral summer and winter. A recent study of CMIP 5 & 6 projections found a combination of local diabatic heating changes and static-stability-induced changes in baroclinic eddy growth as the dominant drivers. Yet the underlying mechanisms forcing these changes still remain uninvestigated. This study aims to enhance our mechanistic understanding of what drives these Southern Hemisphere anticyclones changes during both seasons. Using an AGCM, we decompose the response to CO2-induced warming into two components: (1) the fast atmospheric response to direct CO2 radiative forcing, and (2) the slow atmospheric response due to indirect sea surface temperature warming. Additionally, we isolate the influence of tropical diabatic heating with AGCM added heating experiments. As a complement to our numerical AGCM experiments, we analyze the Atmospheric and Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project experiments. Results from sensitivity experiments show that slow subtropical sea surface temperature warming primarily forces the projected changes in subtropical anticyclones through baroclinicity change. Fast CO2 atmospheric radiative forcing on the other hand plays a secondary role, with the most notable exception being the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone in austral winter, where it opposes the forcing by sea surface temperature changes resulting in a muted net response. Lastly, we find that tropical diabatic heating changes only significantly influence Southern Hemisphere subtropical anticyclone changes through tropospheric wind shear changes during austral winter.

Subtropical anticyclone↗

Integrating and Visualizing Tropical Cyclone Data Using the Real Time Mission Monitor

The Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) is a visualization and information system that fuses multiple Earth science data sources, to enable real time decision-making for airborne and ground validation experiments. Developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, RTMM is a situational awareness, decision-support system that integrates satellite imagery, radar, surface and airborne instrument data sets, model output parameters, lightning location observations, aircraft navigation data, soundings, and other applicable Earth science data sets. The integration and delivery of this information is made possible using data acquisition systems, network communication links, network server resources, and visualizations through the Google Earth virtual globe application. RTMM is extremely valuable for optimizing individual Earth science airborne field experiments. Flight planners, scientists, and managers appreciate the contributions that RTMM makes to their flight projects. A broad spectrum of interdisciplinary scientists used RTMM during field campaigns including the hurricane-focused 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA), 2007 NOAA-NASA Aerosonde Hurricane Noel flight, 2007 Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4), plus a soil moisture (SMAP-VEX) and two arctic research experiments (ARCTAS) in 2008. Improving and evolving RTMM is a continuous process. RTMM recently integrated the Waypoint Planning Tool, a Java-based application that enables aircraft mission scientists to easily develop a pre-mission flight plan through an interactive point-and-click interface. Individual flight legs are automatically calculated "on the fly". The resultant flight plan is then immediately posted to the Google Earth-based RTMM for interested scientists to view the planned flight track and subsequently compare it to the actual real time flight progress. We are planning additional capabilities to RTMM including collaborations with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the joint development of a Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC IDEAS) which will serve as a web portal for access to tropical cyclone data, visualizations and model output.

Goodman, H. Michael↗

On the Importance of Small Ice Crystals in Tropical Anvil Cirrus

In situ measurements of ice crystal concentrations and sizes made with aircraft instrumentation over the past two decades have often indicated the presence of numerous relatively small (< 50 m diameter) crystals in cirrus clouds. Further, these measurements frequently indicate that small crystals account for a large fraction of the extinction in cirrus clouds. The fact that the instruments used to make these measurements, such as the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe (FSSP) and the Cloud Aerosol Spectrometer (CAS), ingest ice crystals into the sample volume through inlets has led to suspicion that the indications of numerous small ]crystals could be artifacts of large ]crystal shattering on the instrument inlets. We present new aircraft measurements in anvil cirrus sampled during the Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4) campaign with the 2 ] Dimensional Stereo (2D ]S) probe, which detects particles as small as 10 m. The 2D ]S has detector "arms" instead of an inlet tube. Since the 2D ]S probe surfaces are much further from the sample volume than is the case for the instruments with inlets, it is expected that 2D ]S will be less susceptible to shattering artifacts. In addition, particle inter ]arrival times are used to identify and remove shattering artifacts that occur even with the 2D ]S probe. The number of shattering artifacts identified by the 2D ]S interarrival time analysis ranges from a negligible contribution to an order of magnitude or more enhancement in apparent ice concentration over the natural ice concentration, depending on the abundance of large crystals and the natural small ]crystal concentration. The 2D ]S measurements in tropical anvil cirrus suggest that natural small ]crystal concentrations are typically one to two orders of magnitude lower than those inferred from CAS. The strong correlation between the CAS/2D ]S ratio of small ]crystal concentrations and large ]crystal concentration suggests that the discrepancy is likely caused by shattering of large crystals on the CAS inlet. We argue that past measurements with CAS in cirrus with large crystals present may contain errors due to crystal shattering, and past conclusions derived from these measurements may need to be revisited. Further, we present correlations between CAS spurious concentration and 2D ]S large ]crystal mass from spatially uniform anvil cirrus sampling periods as an approximate guide for estimating quantitative impact of large ]crystal shattering on CAS concentrations in previous datasets. We use radiative transfer calculations to demonstrate that in the maritime anvil cirrus sampled during TC4, small crystals indicated by 2D ]S contribute relatively little cloud extinction, radiative forcing, or radiative heating in the anvils, regardless of anvil age or vertical location in the clouds. While 2D ]S ice concentrations in fresh anvil cirrus may often exceed 1 cm.3, and are observed to exceed 10 cm.3 in turrets, they are typically ~0.1 cm.3 and rarely exceed 1 cm.3 (<1.4% of the time) in aged anvil cirrus. We hypothesize that isolated occurrences of higher ice concentrations in aged anvil cirrus may be caused by ice nucleation driven by either small ]scale convection or gravity waves. It appears that the numerous small crystals detrained from convective updrafts do not persist in the anvil cirrus sampled during TC ]4.

Jensen, E. J.↗