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At least 289 records · Page 16

Tidal Turbine Benchmarking Project: Stage I - Steady Flow Blind Predictions: Preprint

This paper presents the first blind prediction stage of the Tidal Turbine Benchmarking Project being conducted and funded by the UK's EPSRC and Supergen ORE Hub. In this first stage, only steady flow conditions, at low and elevated turbulence (3.1%) levels, were considered. Prior to the blind prediction stage, a large laboratory scale experiment was conducted in which a highly instrumented 1.6m diameter tidal rotor was towed through a large towing tank in well-defined flow conditions with and without an upstream turbulence grid. Details of the test campaign and rotor design were released as part of this community blind prediction exercise. Participants were invited to use a range of engineering modelling approaches to simulate the performance and loads of the turbine. 26 submissions were received from 12 groups from across academia and industry using solution techniques ranging from blade resolved computational fluid dynamics through actuator line, boundary integral element methods, vortex methods to engineering Blade Element Momentum methods. The comparisons between experiments and blind predictions were extremely positive helping to provide validation and uncertainty estimates for the models, but also validating the experimental tests themselves. The exercise demonstrated that the experimental turbine data provides a robust data set against which researchers and design engineers can test their models and implementations to ensure robustness in their processes, helping to reduce uncertainty and provide increased confidence in engineering processes. Furthermore, the data set provides the basis by which modellers can evaluate and refine approaches.

benchmarking↗

A carbon molecular sieve membrane-based reactive separation process for pre-combustion CO 2 capture

In this study, we discuss a hybrid system combining a membrane reactor (MR) and an adsorptive reactor (AR), with the MR's reject stream serving as the AR's feed. We apply this system for the water gas shift (WGS) reaction for H 2 generation and simultaneous CO 2 capture in the context of the Integrated Gas Combined Cycle (IGCC) process for power generation from coal and biomass. This MR-AR system attains a high conversion exceeding equilibrium, produces a pure H 2 product for power generation, and delivers a high-pressure CO 2 stream ready for sequestration. Specifically, in our study we use carbon molecular sieve membranes (CMSMs) and a commercial sour-shift WGS catalyst. Lab experiments were carried-out to determine the membrane characteristics, and the MR performance under IGCC-relevant conditions, i.e., for temperatures up to 250 °C and pressures up to 25 bar, employing a model coal gasifier syngas. The CMSM and the catalyst have displayed robust and stable performance during a long-term run (~750 h of syngas exposure). We evaluated the MR-AR system in multi-cycle runs and it has demonstrated superior performance to that of a conventional packed-bed reactor, producing a high-purity H 2 product directly useable in a turbine for power generation. We conclude from the study, that the CMSM-based MR-AR system is a good candidate technology for environmentally-benign power generation. We are currently constructing a pilot-scale system for field demonstration of the technology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

ORBIT: Offshore Renewables Balance-of-System and Installation Tool

This report describes the Offshore Renewables Balance-of-system Installation Tool ("ORBIT"), a new model developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate the balance-of-system (BOS) costs associated with offshore wind projects. In the context of wind energy projects BOS costs encompass all expenses required to construct a project other than the capital expenditures (CapEx) of the turbines and towers, including the procurement costs for all other components (such as substructures, cables, and electrical infrastructure), offshore and land-based construction costs, port costs, site surveying fees, permitting fees, and leasing fees are all categorized as BOS costs. BOS costs significantly contribute to the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for offshore wind, typically comprising over 50\% of the CapEx for a fixed-bottom offshore wind project and 60\% for a floating project. In addition, technology solutions and installation methods vary drastically between projects as they are impacted by factors such as vessel availability, geographic considerations and site geotechnical conditions. These effects require a model with appropriate fidelity to understand how these costs scale as turbine rating increases and the offshore wind supply chain, particularly offshore construction vessels, is expanded. For offshore wind, cost savings attributed to increased turbine rating are primarily realized through BOS procurement and project installation as fewer substructures and less cable are required. BOS costs represent both a modeling challenge, as well as an opportunity, for project developers to optimize solutions to reduce costs. It is critical to understand how these costs are affected by novel technologies, innovative installation processes, and operational constraints in order identify meaningful cost reductions for offshore wind energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Quantifying wind plant blockage under stable atmospheric conditions

Wind plant blockage reduces the wind velocity upstream undermining turbine performance for the first row of the plant. We assess how atmospheric stability modifies the induction zone of a wind plant in flat terrain. We also explore different approaches to quantifying the magnitude and extent of the induction zone from field-like observations. To investigate the influence from atmospheric stability, we compare simulations of two stable boundary layers using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in large-eddy simulation mode, representing wind turbines using the generalized actuator disk approach. We find a faster cooling rate at the surface, which produces a stronger stably stratified boundary layer, amplifies the induction zone of both an isolated turbine and of a large wind plant. A statistical analysis on the hub-height wind speed field shows wind slowdowns only extend far upstream (up to 15D) of a wind plant in strong stable boundary layers. To evaluate different ways of measuring wind plant blockage from field-like observations, we consider various ways of estimating the freestream velocity upstream of the plant. Sampling a large area upstream is the most accurate approach to estimating the freestream conditions, and thus of measuring the blockage effect. Also, the choice of sampling method may induce errors of the same order as the velocity deficit in the induction zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wind Energy Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report: Fiscal Year 2022

Four decades ago, construction was just beginning on experimental turbines at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC). Today, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) facility is the centerpiece of the laboratory's Flatirons Campus, a world-class hub for renewable energy research. The nation's shift to 100% clean electricity by 2035 will require a mix of renewable energy sources and strategies - and together, wind and solar energy could account for 60% to 80% of that clean energy resource. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2022, NREL scientists, engineers, and analysts contributed to these visionary goals through their wind energy research. As wind innovations push into new areas, NREL continues to play a vital role in advancing technology and addressing deployment barriers in pursuit of more efficient, reliable, and predictable wind energy systems. FY 2022 wind research and development explored the potential for dramatic growth in land-based systems, the launch of the nation's first commercial-scale offshore installations, and transmission infrastructure buildout. Land-based wind energy is one of the most cost-effective electricity supply options - but utility-scale deployment will require up to 10 times the current number of turbines. An NREL plan addressed this need to accelerate U.S. wind technology rollout at distributed and utility scales. Another project conducted by NREL and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) helps position the nation's first major offshore wind corridor for success. The WETO-funded Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study is evaluating options for balancing electricity supply and demand, while supporting resilience of the grid and marine industries. WETO, NREL, and other partners are working to enable the enormous supply chain and workforce changes the U.S. wind energy industry will need to meet net-zero-carbon-emissions targets. As part of a seminal series of DOE-funded supply chain studies, NREL analysts reported on the trade-offs involved in manufacturing large volumes of wind technologies, while addressing cost, workforce, and logistics issues. All of this research is supported by NREL's outstanding research teams, tools, data, and facilities. A WETO-funded international wind energy field campaign, the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN), has brought together experts from NREL, PNNL, and Sandia National Laboratories to create the world's most comprehensive set of high-resolution data on wind energy atmospheric phenomenon. This study could lead to more accurate predictions of losses from turbine-to-turbine wake interactions, eventually helping wind plants capture more energy and operators save millions of dollars. In addition, NREL researchers developed testing, modeling, and analysis tools to improve the security of power grids by identifying wind power plant dynamic stability problems. A new Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator (SSRS) protects golden eagles from turbine encounters by predicting flight paths. This report provides more detail on these top achievements and other accomplishments made by NREL and its partners during FY 2022 (between October 1, 2021, and September 30, 2022).

accomplishments↗

Dry air cyclic oxidation of mixed Y/Yb disilicate environmental barrier coatings and bare silica formers

Here mixed Y and Yb disilicate coatings (Y/Yb)DS have been proposed as dual function thermal and environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) for protecting SiC-based ceramic matrix composites in gas-turbine environments. As an initial step, the 1350 °C dry air cyclic oxidation of atmospheric plasma sprayed (Y 1.2 /Yb 0.8 )DS and ytterbium disilicate/ytterbium monosilicate (YbDS/YbMS) EBCs deposited onto Si bond coatings was compared. As a baseline for evaluating EBC oxidant permeability, the dry air cyclic oxidation scale growth rates for bare silica formers (SiC, Si) were also measured and were consistently higher than rates previously measured after isothermal oxidation. Regarding Si bond coat oxidation rates underlying (Y/Yb)DS and YbDS/YbMS EBCs, the thinner silica scale formed under the thinner and denser (Y/Yb)DS coatings suggested a lower oxidant permeability than YbDS/YbMS. After 500 1-h cycles, the (Y/Yb)DS coating was comprised of only the β-polymorph disilicate and minor amounts of the X-2 phase monosilicate phase. Negligible differences in oxidation kinetics for (Y/Yb)DS coatings over the 90 – 240 µm thickness range were observed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Systematic analysis of melt pool dynamics in laser processing of mixed powder feedstocks

Functionally graded materials (FGMs) fabricated via additive manufacturing of blended powders offer the potential to spatially tailor properties for new technologies, such as fusion first-wall systems, turbine blades, and spacecraft. However, processing these materials is difficult due to the multiplicity of processing parameters to optimize, all of which must be changed as substrate material, powder feedstock compositions, and melt pool dynamics evolve. Here, this work systematically evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of these variables on the melt pool size, shape, composition, and particle distribution in an exemplar Ti-Ta system, and connects the experimental results to Marangoni flow behavior and phenomena observed in other systems. Increasing laser power linearly increases melt pool size and layer thickness, driving engineering considerations such as part/geometrical tolerances. Decreasing laser velocity changes the melt pool shape from lenticular to convex and reduces chemical homogeneity due to extreme thermal and compositional gradients between the melt pool center and boundaries. Thermophysical property differences between the powder feedstock and substrate material, as well as the directionality of the gradient, affect dilution and melt pool dynamics, which in turn affect the melt pool boundary characteristics, shape, and uniformity. Mixed powder feedstocks of intermediate compositions do not behave according to linear interpolations between single-material endpoints, instead building taller and wider melt pools. As such, it is recommended to quantify process maps for at least one intermediate composition in the FGM or multi-material system of interest to ensure optimized processing parameters, predictable melt pool sizes and shapes, and compositional and spatial precision.

Dissimilar↗

Economic competitiveness of pultruded fiber composites for wind turbine applications

Pultrusion manufacturing of fiber reinforced polymers has been shown to yield some of the highest mechanical properties for unidirectional composites, having a high degree of fiber alignment with consistent performance. Pultrusions offer a low-cost manufacturing approach for producing unidirectional composites with a constant cross-section and are used in many applications, including spar caps of wind turbine blades. However, as an intermediate processing step for wind blades, the additional cost of manufacturing pultrusions must be accompanied by sufficient increases in mechanical performance and system benefits. Wind turbine blades are manufactured using vacuum-assisted resin transfer molding with infused unidirectional fiberglass or carbon pultrusions for the spar cap. Infused fiberglass composites are among the most cost-effective structural materials available and replacing this material in the cost-driven wind industry has proven challenging, where infused fiberglass spar caps are still the predominant material system in use. To evaluate alternative material systems in a pultruded composite form, it is necessary to understand the costs for this additional manufacturing step which are shown to add 33%–55% on top of the material costs. A pultrusion cost model has been developed and used to quantify cost sensitivities to various processing parameters. The mechanical performance for pultruded composites is improved versus resin-infusion manufacturing with a 17% increase in design strength at a constant fiber volume fraction, but also enables higher achievable fiber volume fractions. The cost-specific mechanical performance is compared as a function of processing parameters for pultruded composites to identify the opportunities for alternative material and manufacturing approaches for wind turbine spar caps. Finally, four materials are compared in a representative wind turbine blade model to assess the performance of pultruded carbon fiber systems and pultruded fiberglass relative to infused fiberglass, where the pultruded systems produce lower weight blades with various cost distinctions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Robust wind farm layout optimization

Wake interactions in wind farms cause losses in annual energy production (AEP) on the order of 10%. Wind farm designers optimize the layout of the farm to mitigate wake losses, especially in the dominant site-specific wind directions. As wind turbines and wind farms grow in scale, optimization becomes more complex. Offshore wind farms regularly comprise more than 100 wind turbines and are characterized by complex boundaries due to shipping lanes, neighboring wind farms, and other constraints. Layout optimization methods are broadly split between gradient-based and gradient-free approaches. Gradient-based approaches can converge quickly and perform well for smaller, academic problems but are often sensitive to initial conditions and tuning parameters and require expert knowledge to use. On the other hand, gradient-free approaches can be more robust to problem complexities. We present a robust layout optimization approach based on a random search algorithm. The algorithm is intended for those who are not optimization experts and has few tuning parameters that need specification to achieve satisfactory results. Unlike off-the-shelf methods, which use generally available, non-domain-specific optimization routines that accept as inputs an optimization function and constraint definitions, this approach takes advantage of the relative computational costs of the different evaluations by evaluating cheaper computations first (boundary and minimum distance constraints) and running expensive AEP evaluations only if all other checks pass. Moreover, an outer genetic algorithm allows multiple solutions to evolve in parallel, enabling rapid solution development on high-performance computers. We discuss the relative ease of selecting necessary tuning parameters and demonstrate the efficacy of the genetic random search on a complex layout problem consisting of placing 70 turbines in a nonconvex and unconnected boundary region.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

System efficiency and power assessment of the all-aqueous copper thermally regenerative ammonia battery

Thermally regenerative ammonia batteries (TRABs) use low-temperature (T < 100 °C) heat to provide stationary energy and power with higher power densities and efficiency relative to other waste heat devices. TRABs are an active area of research in waste heat devices, but currently there is little consensus on what aspect of the system is limiting TRAB performance and what maximum efficiencies are possible. Experiments and numerical models were used here to examine the sensitivity of the battery and distillation column in a TRAB system to key operating variables, thereby establishing practical limits and identifying focus areas for improving performance. Battery power was eight times more sensitive to ohmic losses than kinetic and mass transfer losses, regardless of the operating temperature, and the peak power density was simulated to be 18.8 mW cm –2 at 75 °C. Theoretical energy efficiency limits were defined for a series of ammonia concentrations and operating pressures, ranging from 5 – 12%, which is 2–3 times higher than previous experimental estimations. Atmospheric pressure column operation used a larger amount of waste heat compared to sub-atmospheric pressure. It is estimated that the volume of the battery would take up 9.2m 3 for every 1% of the power output of a natural gas turbine, but with realistic improvements to cell conductivity, the size would reduce to 2.5 m 3 . Finally, the results presented in this work will help streamline future development by focusing on minimizing ohmic losses and provide specific data for full system evaluation of future TRABs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Coupled modeling of wake steering and platform offsets for floating wind arrays

Wake effects are a key challenge in the design and analysis of wind farms. For floating wind farms, the platforms offset under the aerodynamic loading of the turbine and are constrained by mooring systems that can vary significantly in allowable offsets. When considering wake steering, the crosswind offset of the turbine can counteract the lateral deflection of the wake. This work presents a tool to efficiently model the coupled impacts of wake steering and platform offsets for floating wind farms. The tool relies on the frequency-domain wind farm model RAFT and the steady-state wake model FLORIS. A verification with FAST.Farm is presented, then the tool is applied to a simple two-turbine case study. A range of mooring systems with increasing platform offsets and varied yaw misalignment angles are considered while comparing the impact on turbine power. Additional sensitivities to turbine spacing and mooring system orientation are explored. The results show that there is a least-optimal watch circle width for downwind turbine power production that varies with yaw misalignment angle and turbine spacing. Additionally, the turbine offsets under yaw-misaligned conditions vary significantly depending on mooring system orientation relative to the rotor plane, which in turn impacts the optimal misalignment angle. These results highlight the importance of including floating platform offsets and mooring systems in the evaluation of wake steering strategies for floating wind arrays.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

OC7 Phase I Definition Document

The Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration 7 (OC7) project is organized under the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme Task 56 with an objective to evaluate and enhance the predictive accuracy of engineering-level modeling tools used in the design of offshore wind energy systems. Phase I of OC7 is focused on improving the models and modeling practices of hydrodynamic viscous loads on floating offshore wind turbine platforms. In alignment with this goal, Work Package 1.1 of OC7 Phase I is formulated to investigate the modeling of hydrodynamic viscous loads on several different geometric components commonly encountered with floating offshore wind platform designs, including cylindrical columns, heave plates, and rectangular pontoons. Work Package 1.1 also explores the dependence of hydrodynamic coefficients on the sea state to drive toward practical guidance on how these coefficients can be selected or adjusted for different conditions. This report outlines the motivation and objectives behind each subphase of OC7 Phase I, along with the necessary technical specifications and load case definitions to guide the project participants. It also serves as an important part of the project documentation for future modelers who would like to reproduce this work or make use of the data and information generated from the OC7 project.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Preconceptual Designs of Coupled Power Delivery between a 4-Loop PWR and 100-500 MWe HTSE Plants

This study develops a preconceptual design for the integration between a large-scale high-temperature electrolysis facility and a NPP. Two hydrogen facility sizes are considered: 100 MWnom and 500 MWnom. Both steam supply designs use cold reheat steam extraction as a heat source. A reboiler inside the protected area of the power plant transfers steam heat to the demineralized water supply for the hydrogen plant. After the heat transfer, the extracted steam condenses and returns to the condenser while the process steam routes out of the protected area to the electrolyzers. Electrical power is tapped off from the high voltage side of the GSU transformer, where it is then transported via a 345-kV transmission line to the hydrogen facility. Circuit breakers and disconnects are located at both ends of the transmission line. Step down transformers and miscellaneous switchgear/buses are located at the end of the transmission line inside the HTEF boundary. Control capabilities for the steam interfacing equipment and electrical dispatch are accessible from the Main Control Room, and protective relays for the transmission line are located inside the Relay Room. Computer modeling was performed for the thermal and electrical designs. PEPSE analysis provided the steady-state parameters for thermal extraction from the turbine cycle. These parameters were used to inform transients and size equipment in combination with Applied Flow Technology (AFT) Arrow and AFT Fathom modeling for steam and water piping, respectively. Electrical transients were analyzed using PSCAD. An ETAP model was used to evaluate power flow and short circuit, which enabled the sizing of transformers and protective equipment. A cost estimate was developed for both integration designs when considering plant separation distances of 250 m and 500 m. From these estimates, the modifications for thermal and electrical interfacing of a first-of-a-kind nuclear-integrated hydrogen facility are anticipated to cost between $60–250/kWnom., where the subscript “nom” refers to the nominal size of the hydrogen plant. On a thermal power basis, the thermal power has a cost of approximately $8/MWth for a 500 MWnom high temperature electrolysis plant located 500 m distant from the NPP. That value decreases to approximately $7.5/MWth for a 250 m separation distance between the hydrogen plant and the NPP. This value is lower than previous estimates of the cost of heat extracted from NPPs primarily because in this work the steam is extracted from cold reheat instead of the main steam line, which reduces the cost of the dispatched steam by approximately $3.5/MWth. Nuclear steam extraction can provide a profit avenue for many plants and is not restricted to hydrogen production. Ammonia production, oil refining, and paper production, among other industrial processes all require thermal energy, which can be provided by NPPs. Future work should look further at the details of thermal extraction for a variety of use cases. This can include increased levels of extraction and multiple simultaneous users. Additionally, site-specific studies should be performed to develop industry experience and improve cost accuracy.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Evaluating mesoscale model predictions of diurnal speedup events in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California

Mesoscale model predictions of wind, turbulence, and wind energy capacity factors are evaluated in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California (APWRA), where the diurnal regional sea breeze and associated terrain-driven speedup flows drive wind energy production during the summer months. Results from the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 4.4 using a novel three-dimensional planetary boundary layer (3D PBL) scheme, which treats both vertical and horizontal turbulent mixing, are compared to those using a well-established one-dimensional (1D) scheme that treats only vertical turbulent mixing. Each configuration is evaluated over a nearly 3-month-long period during the Hill Flow Study, and due to the recurring nature of the observed speedup flows, diurnal composite averaging is used to capture robust trends in model performance. Both model configurations showed similar overall skill. The general timing and direction of the speedup flows is captured, but their magnitude is overestimated within a typical wind turbine rotor layer. Both also fail to capture a persistent observed near-surface jet-like flow, likely due to the limited grid resolution that is typical of mesoscale models. However, the 3D PBL configuration shows several minor improvements over the 1D PBL configuration, including improved wind speed and turbulence kinetic energy profiles during the accelerating phase of the speedup events, as well as reduced positive wind speed bias at surface stations across the APWRA region. Using a mesoscale wind farm parameterization, modeled capacity factors are also compared to monthly data reported to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the study period. Although the monthly trend in the data is captured, both model configurations overestimate capacity factors by roughly 7 %–11 %. Through model evaluation, this study provides confidence in the 3D PBL scheme for wind energy applications in complex terrain and provides guidance for future testing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Foster Dam Juvenile Fish Passage, 2018 (Final Report)

This report presents the results of a fish passage study conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (USACE) at Foster Dam (herein, Foster) during the spring (March–June) and fall (October–December) of 2018. The goal of this study was to provide biologists, engineers, resource managers, and regional decision-makers with information about passage of juvenile Chinook salmon and juvenile steelhead (or appropriate surrogates) through specific routes at Foster. The results of this study are intended to help facilitate decision-making regarding long-term measures for enhancing salmonid passage at Foster. Radio telemetry (RT) methods were instituted at low winter reservoir forebay elevation (low pool, 613 ft mean sea level (msl); spring 2018 and fall 2018) and high summer reservoir forebay elevation (high pool, 635 ft msl; late spring and early summer 2018) to accomplish the following objectives: I. Estimate the following passage metrics under typical operations (i.e., baseline conditions): a. Overall dam-passage survival and survival specific to each route of dam passage, calculated using two different methods: i. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) estimate: Probability of survival from dam passage to detection at the Primary Array, 19 river kilometers (rkm) downstream of Foster. ii. Virtual Release/Dead Fish Correction (ViRDCt) estimate: Corrects the bias that occurs from misidentifying fish that did not survive dam-passage as alive at the tailrace Egress Array, allowing an estimate of survival from dam passage to this array, 2.5 rkm downstream of Foster. b. Route distribution (passage proportions by route; also known as “passage efficiencies”). c. Efficiency metrics i. Dam-passage efficiency (DPE), the proportion of total fish passing the dam relative to the number of total fish detected in the near forebay of the dam and therefore available to pass. ii. Fish passage efficiency (FPE), the proportion of fish passing via a non-turbine route, relative to the number of total fish in the near forebay and available to pass. iii. Fish weir efficiency (FWE) and spill bay efficiency (SBE), the proportion of fish passing the weir or spill bays, respectively, relative to the total number of fish passing the dam. d. Reservoir residency time (time elapsed between release into reservoir and dam passage) and travel times through the system. II. Estimate efficiency and effectiveness of the new fish weir, compared to the turbines and the spillway. III. Under alternative operations, compare passage through each route (turbines, weir, spillway) using a block/treatment (on/off) design similar to the 2015 and 2016 studies. IV. Estimate efficiency of the new fish weir operating at a low level of discharge (< 500 cfs) and a high level of discharge (= 500 cfs), as well as dam passage survival at each weir discharge level. V. Evaluate survival and behavior of hatchery summer steelhead to wild surrogate winter steelhead for potential use of summer steelhead as a surrogate species winter steelhead. VI. Evaluate juvenile passage rates in the auxiliary water supply (AWS), forebay water supply (FWS), and hatchery water supply (HWS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Examination of the Extreme Cold Weather Event Affecting the Power System in Texas - February 2021 [Slides]

This presentation examines the extreme cold weather event that affected the power system in Texas in February 2021. The Texas load-shedding events were caused by a combination of record-high demand and cold weather issues that reduced the output from all types of generation. While some wind turbines were shutting down due to cold temperatures and icing and a lack of cold-weather packages, hourly wind output was accurately predicted. Extreme weather events historically drive grid reliability. Additional examination of more extreme events is needed to understand their impacts on the power system. As a national lab, NREL has the capabilities and facilities to help the industry address these types of challenges. NREL also has significant simulation and analysis capabilities (such as NAERM) that can help understand the impacts of extreme events. NREL also developed the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) Research Platform, which enables evaluation of technologies that smooth grid operations during events like this.

17 WIND ENERGY↗