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NASA NTRS2013

Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC): NASA to FAA Research Transition

After takeoff, aircraft must merge into en route (Center) airspace traffic flows which may be subject to constraints that create localized demand-capacity imbalances. When demand exceeds capacity, Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) and Frontline Managers (FLMs) often use tactical departure scheduling to manage the flow of departures into the constrained Center traffic flow. Tactical departure scheduling usually involves use of a Call for Release (CFR) procedure wherein the Tower must call the Center to coordinate a release time prior to allowing the flight to depart. In present-day operations release times are computed by the Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) decision support tool based upon manual estimates of aircraft ready time verbally communicated from the Tower to the Center. The TMA-computed release time is verbally communicated from the Center back to the Tower where it is relayed to the Local controller as a release window that is typically three minutes wide. The Local controller will manage the departure to meet the coordinated release time window. Manual ready time prediction and verbal release time coordination are labor intensive and prone to inaccuracy. Also, use of release time windows adds uncertainty to the tactical departure process. Analysis of more than one million flights from January 2011 indicates that a significant number of tactically scheduled aircraft missed their en route slot due to ready time prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in ready time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route flows and lead to lost throughput. Next Generation Air Transportation System plans call for development of Tower automation systems capable of computing surface trajectory-based ready time estimates. NASA has developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept that improves tactical departure scheduling by automatically communicating surface trajectory-based ready time predictions and departure runway assignments to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept reduces uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs and FLMs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station in Dallas-Fort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations.

ATM↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Epic Chronicle of Designing Cassini's Titan Flyby Altitudes

The selection and optimization of Titan flyby altitudes for NASA's Cassini mission at Saturn has traveled a long, fascinating, and often torturous sixteen-year path - starting in 2001, when pre-arrival trajectory design decisions had to be made, through April of 2017 when Cassini's last, and arguably most critical, low flyby takes place. The chronicle of designing and updating the Titan flyby altitudes have twists and turns enough to satisfy a full-length novel or feature film, including: critical design decision-making before arrival with multiple atmospheric models, high uncertainties, and limited data; early flybys that seemed to show trends that weren't there; use and misuse of statistical analysis; unexpected surprises with limited reaction time; navigation of a scientific, engineering, and management community with a wide array of inherent biases; and consideration of a variety of project risk postures in a high-scrutiny, high-impact, high-reward environment.

Bittner, Molly↗

NASA NTRS2020

2020 IEEE Paper on Psyche margin management, Draft

In January 2017, the mission concept Psyche: Journey to a Metal World was one of two concepts selected by NASA for implementation as part of the 14th Discovery mission competition. Over the course of the past year, the Psyche team has actively worked to refine and mature the technical design, culminating in a successful completion of the Project Preliminary Design review and approval to proceed to Phase C in mid-2019. Psyche is a deep space mission utilizing solar electric propulsion (SEP), consisting of SPT-140 Hall thrusters which have been successfully employed on multiple commercial spacecraft. When launched, Psyche will carry over 1000 kg of Xenon, and will represent the farthest usage of electric propulsion usage from the Sun – a distance of over 3.3 AU. The use of solar electric propulsion in deep space has resulted in challenges unique to other missions. Spacecraft designs typically balance margins across two main elements – mass and power – that are independent of one another. Utilizing a low thrust trajectory through the application of electric propulsion introduces more elements - namely flight time, missed thrust percentage and thruster duty cycle. Moreover, these elements become connected, presenting additional relationships that must be considered. This paper will present an overview of the margin management process for Psyche, and how it has evolved from the early proposal stage to its current state. It will discuss the elements that are margined, their relationship with one another, and key uncertainties that must be addressed. It discusses challenges and mitigations obtained during the refinement of the Psyche project, culminating in a new margin strategy that enables optimization across many of the system elements, and will serve as a template for future deep space SEP missions.

Hart, William↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Tree Health Conditions in New York City’s Central Park with Earth Observation Data

The Central Park Conservancy stewards New York City’s iconic Central Park with a mission to preserve the park for all. This mission is complicated by the spread of Dutch elm disease (DED) which has threatened the culturally and ecologically significant American elm tree (Ulmus americana). Central Park is home to one of the largest and last remaining urban concentrations of American elm and the Conservancy currently protects them through integrated pest management. This project is an interdisciplinary feasibility study that assessed the application of NASA Earth observations from 2014 to 2023 to detect changes in forest phenology possibly related to DED. Landsat 8 and 9 imagery was used to calculate a multiyear time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and quantify changes in land surface phenology. A pixel-based logistic regression analysis was performed using changes in NDVI, tree site locations, and recorded occurrences of trees infected with DED as inputs. The results of this analysis show that changes in NDVI derived from Landsat data are capable of detecting unhealthy tree canopies with 71% precision and healthy tree canopies with 41% precision. The study had uncertainties and limitations due to the spatial and temporal resolutions of Landsat, the natural variability in land surface phenology and NDVI, and the attempt to detect disease impacts while disease prevention and mitigation are occurring. As is, the findings of this study and its methods provide managers with an approach for integrating Earth observations to make more informed decisions in the application and timing of urban forest management activities.

John Hocknell↗

NASA NTRS2024

Central Park Ecological Conservation: Assessing Tree Health Conditions in New York City’s Central Park with NASA Earth Observation Data

The Central Park Conservancy stewards New York City’s iconic Central Park with a mission to preserve the park for all. This mission is complicated by the spread of Dutch elm disease (DED) which has threatened the culturally and ecologically significant American elm tree (Ulmus americana). Central Park is home to one of the largest and last remaining urban concentrations of American elm and the Conservancy currently protects them through integrated pest management. This paper discusses an interdisciplinary feasibility study that assessed the application of NASA Earth observations from 2014 to 2023 to detect changes in forest phenology possibly related to DED. Landsat 8 and 9 imagery was used to calculate multiyear time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and quantify changes in land surface phenology for a given year. A pixel-based logistic regression analysis was performed using changes in NDVI, tree site locations, and recorded occurrences of trees infected with DED as inputs. The results of this analysis show that changes in NDVI derived from Landsat data are capable of detecting unhealthy tree canopies with 71% precision and healthy tree canopies with 41% precision. The study had uncertainties and limitations due to the spatial and temporal resolutions of Landsat, the natural variability in land surface phenology and NDVI, and the attempt to detect disease impacts while disease prevention and mitigation is occurring. As is, the findings of this study and its methods provide managers with an approach for integrating Earth observations to make more informed decisions in the application and timing of urban forest management activities.

Central Park↗

NASA NTRS2013

Spectrum for UAS Control and Non-Payload Communications

There is an increasing need to fly UAS in the NAS to perform missions of vital importance to National Security and Defense, Emergency Management, and Science as well as commercial applications (e.g. cargo transport). To enable integration of UAS into the National Airspace System, several critical technical barriers must be eliminated, including: Separation Assurance/Sense and Avoid - the uncertainty surrounding the ability to interoperate in ATC environments and maintain safe separation from other aircraft in the absence of an on-board pilot. Human Systems Integration - lack of standards and guidelines with respect to UAS display information as well as lack of Ground Control Station (GCS) design requirements to operate in the NAS. Certification - lack of airworthiness requirements and safety-related data specific to the full range of UAS, or for their avionics systems or other components. Communications - lack of standard, certifiable data links and aviation safety spectrum to operate such links for civil UAS control communications.

Kerczewski, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following the process described in Refs. 5 through 7, in terms of percentage coverage or confidence level is notionally sound compared to characterizing in terms of probabilities because the probability of the forecast being correct can only be determined using actual observations. References 5 through 7 only use the forecast data and not the observations. The method for computing the probability of detection, false alarm ratio and several forecast quality metrics (Skill Scores) using both the forecast and observation data are given in Ref. 2. This paper extends the statistical verification method in Ref. 2 to determine co-occurrence probabilities. The method consists of computing the probability that a severe weather cell (grid location) is detected in the observation data in the neighborhood of the severe weather cell in the forecast data. Probabilities of occurrence at the grid location and in its neighborhood with higher severity, and with lower severity in the observation data compared to that in the forecast data are examined. The method proposed in Refs. 5 through 7 is used for computing the probability that a certain number of cells in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in the forecast data are seen as severe weather cells in the observation data. Finally, the probability of existence of gaps in the observation data in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in forecast data is computed. Gaps are defined as openings between severe weather cells through which an aircraft can safely fly to its intended destination. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II summarizes the statistical verification method described in Ref. 2. The extension of this method for computing the co-occurrence probabilities in discussed in Section HI. Numerical examples using NCWF forecast data and NCWD observation data are presented in Section III to elucidate the characteristics of the co-occurrence probabilities. This section also discusses the procedure for computing throbabilities that the severity of convection in the observation data will be higher or lower in the neighborhood of grid locations compared to that indicated at the grid locations in the forecast data. The probability of coverage of neighborhood grid cells is also described via examples in this section. Section IV discusses the gap detection algorithm and presents a numerical example to illustrate the method. The locations of the detected gaps in the observation data are used along with the locations of convective weather cells in the forecast data to determine the probability of existence of gaps in the neighborhood of these cells. Finally, the paper is concluded in Section V.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Impacts of Center of Mass Shifts on Messenger Spacecraft Operations

The MESSENGER (MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging) has successfully completed its first three years of flight operations following launch on August 3, 2004. As part of NASA s Discovery Program, MESSENGER will observe Mercury during flybys in 2008 and 2009, as well as from orbit beginning in March 2011. This paper discusses the impact that center of mass (CM) location changes have had on many mission activities, particularly angular momentum management and maneuver execution. Momentum trends were altered significantly following the first deep-space maneuver, and these changes were related to a change in the CM. The CM location also impacts maneuver execution, and uncertainties in its location led to the significant direction errors experienced at trajectory correction maneuver 11. Because of the spacecraft sensitivity to CM location, efforts to estimate its position are important to momentum and maneuver prediction. This paper summarizes efforts to estimate the CM from flight data, as well as the operational strategy to handle CM uncertainties and their impact on momentum trends and maneuver execution accuracy.

O'Shaughnessy, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Definition of a Technology Validation Mission for P-band Reflectometry using Signals of Opportunity

Root-Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM) (moisture profile in the top meter of soil) and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (total snow pack water content) are identified as priority target variables in the ESAS 2017 decadal survey [1] with critical roles in hydrology and water management. RZSM estimates are vital for understanding multiple Earth system processes and forecasting (for example, droughts [2]). Simultaneous knowledge of surface and RZSM could enable a breakthrough in estimating key unobserved hydrologic fluxes and reduce uncertainty in net ecosystem exchange (NEE), carbon balance [3] discharge estimates, and crop yield forecasts [4] .With the high albedo and insulating properties of snow, monitoring, SWE accumulation would provide a key constraint on the potential runoff during spring ablation while monitoring SWE disappearance rates would provide a key constraint on SWE partition into runoff vs. infiltration/recharge. [5] demonstrated that knowledge of early-spring SWE generally contributes most to streamflow forecast skill in the Western U.S. SWE is also a source of water storage that provides the water resources during spring snowmelt. Despite such potentially transformative contributions, accurate RZSM and SWE measurements are unattainable with current technology. While active/passive L-band methods (e.g. SMAP, SMOS) can reliably retrieve surface soil moisture in the top 5 cm of soil [6], [7]. RZSM estimates are only available through model assimilation of brightness temperatures with a radiative transfer and land surface models [8]. SWE estimation uses multi-frequency passive microwave techniques (e.g. [9]-[11]), which have significant problems with deeper snow and in forested and mountainous environments [12]. Signals of opportunity (SoOp) in P-band (200-400 MHz) is a new remote sensing technique with the capability of estimating both essential hydrologic variables, RZSM and SWE, circumventing many of the aforementioned limitations under all weather conditions day and night. SoOp is the re-utilization of existing powerful satellite transmissions within bands allocated for communications or navigation. P-band SoOp sensitivity to soil moisture has been demonstrated in an airborne experiment over Oklahoma in 2016 [13]. Recent theory [14] and experiments [15] have also confirmed that the reflection coefficient phase is proportional to SWE.

Garrison, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Fission Power System Technology for NASA Exploration Missions

Under the NASA Exploration Technology Development Program, and in partnership with the Department of Energy (DOE), NASA is conducting a project to mature Fission Power System (FPS) technology. A primary project goal is to develop viable system options to support future NASA mission needs for nuclear power. The main FPS project objectives are as follows: 1) Develop FPS concepts that meet expected NASA mission power requirements at reasonable cost with added benefits over other options. 2) Establish a hardware-based technical foundation for FPS design concepts and reduce overall development risk. 3) Reduce the cost uncertainties for FPS and establish greater credibility for flight system cost estimates. 4) Generate the key products to allow NASA decisionmakers to consider FPS as a preferred option for flight development. In order to achieve these goals, the FPS project has two main thrusts: concept definition and risk reduction. Under concept definition, NASA and DOE are performing trade studies, defining requirements, developing analytical tools, and formulating system concepts. A typical FPS consists of the reactor, shield, power conversion, heat rejection, and power management and distribution (PMAD). Studies are performed to identify the desired design parameters for each subsystem that allow the system to meet the requirements with reasonable cost and development risk. Risk reduction provides the means to evaluate technologies in a laboratory test environment. Non-nuclear hardware prototypes are built and tested to verify performance expectations, gain operating experience, and resolve design uncertainties.

Mason, Lee↗

NASA NTRS2018

Using an Automated Air Traffic Simulation Capability for a Parametric Study in Traffic Flow Management

Flight delays occur when demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports exceeds predicted capacity. Demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports can be controlled by a series of Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs), which use departure and airborne delays, as well as pre-departure and airborne reroutes, to manage access to the constrained resources. Two systems exist in current and planned future operations to address imbalances between demand and capacity. The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) reduces demand to constrained resources by assigning strategic departure delay and pre-departure reroutes. Reroutes are selected from Trajectory Options Sets (TOSs) submitted by airlines. As flights approach the constrained resource, the Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM) is used to assign tactical delay to satisfy constraints. This paper describes experiments performed to study the impact of varying levels of airline participation in CTOP via submission of TOSs on ground delay and flight time, and the impact of departure uncertainty on TBFM delays. Results suggest that as CTOP participation increases, average ground delays decrease for all airlines, but to the greatest extent for airlines participating in CTOP. A threshold in CTOP participation, which varies with the constraint capacity, is identified beyond which there is relatively little further reduction in average ground delays. Similarly, given the likely level of CTOP participation, the capacity reduction for which CTOP would be an appropriate TMI is also identified. Results also suggest that high average departure errors and high variability in departure error can make the prioritization of TBFM internal departures in TBFM metering and scheduling infeasible. Departure errors at current levels are, however, acceptable.

integrated demand management↗

NASA NTRS2018

Using an Automated Air Traffic Simulation Capability for a Parametric Study in Traffic Flow Management

CTOP↗

NASA NTRS1993

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Report 15: Technical uncertainty and project complexity as correlates of information use by US industry-affiliated aerospace engineers and scientists: Results of an exploratory investigation

An exploratory study was conducted that investigated the influence of technical uncertainty and project complexity on information use by U.S. industry-affiliated aerospace engineers and scientists. The study utilized survey research in the form of a self-administered mail questionnaire. U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists on the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) mailing list served as the study population. The adjusted response rate was 67 percent. The survey instrument is appendix C to this report. Statistically significant relationships were found to exist between technical uncertainty, project complexity, and information use. Statistically significant relationships were found to exist between technical uncertainty, project complexity, and the use of federally funded aerospace R&D. The results of this investigation are relevant to researchers investigating information-seeking behavior of aerospace engineers. They are also relevant to R&D managers and policy planners concerned with transferring the results of federally funded aerospace R&D to the U.S. aerospace industry.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Risk Estimation of Threatening Asteroids

When faced with the question of designing an asteroid deflection mission or with the decision of launching it, significant uncertainties are present in the asteroid’s physical properties, and its orbit solution. The success of the deflection mission relies heavily on these aspects. For example, a heavier than expected asteroid will reduce the imparted deflection DV. So will a larger porosity value by reducing the beta factor [1]. Here, we present a new capability that estimates asteroid impact risk under consideration of these uncertainties. The new method samples the uncertainty space along multiple dimensions, performs a predetermined deflection, propagates the deflected samples to the Earth, models the impact damage, and estimates the overall risk outcome. The work builds on the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment tool [2] by including orbital uncertainty and deflection capabilities. We demonstrate this risk estimation approach for threatening asteroids using the example of the fictitious impactor 2019 PDC. Such analysis provides a quantitative basis for the work of decision makers and disaster managers. It may further find application in areas such as mitigation mission planning where projected post-mitigation risk can be compared to premitigation levels as a means of cost-benefit analysis formitigation options.

Rumpf, Clemens↗

NASA NTRS2006

Models of Wake-Vortex Spreading Mechanisms and Their Estimated Uncertainties

One of the primary constraints on the capacity of the nation's air transportation system is the landing capacity at its busiest airports. Many airports with nearly-simultaneous operations on closely-spaced parallel runways (i.e., as close as 750 ft (246m)) suffer a severe decrease in runway acceptance rate when weather conditions do not allow full utilization. The objective of a research program at NASA Ames Research Center is to develop the technologies needed for traffic management in the airport environment so that operations now allowed on closely-spaced parallel runways under Visual Meteorological Conditions can also be carried out under Instrument Meteorological Conditions. As part of this overall research objective, the study reported here has developed improved models for the various aerodynamic mechanisms that spread and transport wake vortices. The purpose of the study is to continue the development of relationships that increase the accuracy of estimates for the along-trail separation distances available before the vortex wake of a leading aircraft intrudes into the airspace of a following aircraft. Details of the models used and their uncertainties are presented in the appendices to the paper. Suggestions are made as to the theoretical and experimental research needed to increase the accuracy of and confidence level in the models presented and instrumentation required or more precise estimates of the motion and spread of vortex wakes. The improved wake models indicate that, if the following aircraft is upwind of the leading aircraft, the vortex wakes of the leading aircraft will not intrude into the airspace of the following aircraft for about 7s (based on pessimistic assumptions) for most atmospheric conditions. The wake-spreading models also indicate that longer time intervals before wake intrusion are available when atmospheric turbulence levels are mild or moderate. However, if the estimates for those time intervals are to be reliable, further study is necessary to develop the instrumentation and procedures needed to accurately define when the more benign atmospheric conditions exist.

Rossow, Vernon J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hybrid Modeling for Complex Systems Health Management

The research work presents application of hybrid physics-informed machine learning to a representative electric powertrain for unmanned aerial vehicles. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage. The powertrain model consists of Li-ion batteries, electronic speed controller with pulse-width modulation, and brush-less DC motor with connected propeller. Results obtained from combination of laboratory and simulation tests are discussed in this work.

PINNS↗

NASA NTRS2009

OLTARIS: On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space

The On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation In Space (OLTARIS) is a World Wide Web based tool that assesses the effects of space radiation to humans in items such as spacecraft, habitats, rovers, and spacesuits. This document explains the basis behind the interface and framework used to input the data, perform the assessment, and output the results to the user as well as the physics, engineering, and computer science used to develop OLTARIS. The physics is based on the HZETRN2005 and NUCFRG2 research codes. The OLTARIS website is the successor to the SIREST website from the early 2000 s. Modifications have been made to the code to enable easy maintenance, additions, and configuration management along with a more modern web interface. Over all, the code has been verified, tested, and modified to enable faster and more accurate assessments. The next major areas of modification are more accurate transport algorithms, better uncertainty estimates, and electronic response functions. Improvements in the existing algorithms and data occur continuously and are logged in the change log section of the website.

Singleterry, Robert C., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Air traffic management as principled negotiation between intelligent agents

The major challenge facing the world's aircraft/airspace system (AAS) today is the need to provide increased capacity, while reducing delays, increasing the efficiency of flight operations, and improving safety. Technologies are emerging that should improve the performance of the system, but which could also introduce uncertainty, disputes, and inefficiency if not properly implemented. The aim of our research is to apply techniques from intelligent control theory and decision-making theory to define an Intelligent Aircraft/Airspace System (IAAS) for the year 2025. The IAAS would make effective use of the technical capabilities of all parts of the system to meet the demand for increased capacity with improved performance.

Wangermann, J. P.↗