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At least 289 records · Page 16

Thermal instabilities in magnetically confined plasmas - Solar coronal loops

The thermal stability of confined solar coronal structures ('loops') is investigated, following both normal mode and a new, global instability analysis. It is demonstrated that: (1) normal mode analysis shows modes with size scales comparable to that of loops to be unstable, but to be strongly affected by the loop boundary conditions; (2) a global analysis, based upon variation of the total loop energy losses and gains, yields loop stability conditions for global modes dependent upon the coronal loop heating process, with magnetically coupled heating processes giving marginal stability. The connection between the present analysis and the minimum flux corona of Hearn is also discussed.

Habbal, S. R.↗

Comparison between solar wind latitude distribution derived from Lyman-alpha observations and Ulysses measurements

The all-sky interplanetary Lyman-alpha pattern is sensitive to the latitude distribution of the solar wind because of destruction of neutral H by charge-exchange with solar wind protons. Lyman-alpha intensities recorded by Prognoz 5 and 6 in 1976 in a few parts of the sky were demonstrating a decrease of solar wind mass flux by about 30 % from equator to pole, when assuming a sinusoidal variation of this mass flux (harmonic distribution). A new analysis with a discrete variation with latitude has shown a decrease from 0 to 30 deg and then a plateau of constant mass flux up to the pole. This distribution bears a striking resemblance with Ulysses in-situ measurements, showing a clear similarity at 19 years interval. The Ulysses measurements were then used as a model input to calculate an all-sky Lyman-alpha pattern, either with a discrete model or with a harmonic solar wind variation with the same Ulysses equator-to-pole variation. There are conspicuous differences between the two Lyman-alpha patterns, in particular in the downwind region which are discussed in the context of future all-sky measurements with SWAN experiment on SOHO.

Quemarais, E.↗

Comprehensive Forced Response Analysis of J2X Turbine Bladed-Discs with 36- Degree Variation in CFD Loading

At NASA/MSFC, Structural Dynamics personnel continue to perform advanced analysis for the turbomachinery in the J2X Rocket Engine, which is under consideration for the new Space Launch System. One of the most challenging analyses in the program is predicting turbine blade structural capability. Resonance was predicted by modal analysis, so comprehensive forced response analyses using high fidelity cyclic symmetric finite element models were initiated as required. Analysis methodologies up to this point have assumed the flow field could be fully described by a sector, so the loading on every blade would be identical as it travelled through it. However, in the J2X the CFD flow field varied over the 360 deg of a revolution because of the flow speeds and tortuous axial path. MSFC therefore developed a complex procedure using Nastran Dmap's and Matlab scripts to apply this circumferentially varying loading onto the cyclically symmetric structural models to produce accurate dynamic stresses for every blade on the disk. This procedure is coupled with static, spin, and thermal loading to produce high cycle fatigue safety factors resulting in much more accurate analytical assessments of the blades.

Elrod, David↗

Assimilation of scalar versus horizontal gradient information from the VAS into a mesoscale model

Comparisons are made between analyses and forecasts which incorporate VAS geopotential data as either scalar or horizontal gradient information for a case study on the AVE/VAS day of Mar. 6, 1982. On this day, incorporating the VAS information in analysis as a variational constraint on horizontal geopotential gradients significantly mitigated the effects of large data biases which made VAS assimilation by standard scalar methods very difficult. A subsequent forecast made from the gradient assimilation was superior to one made from the standard analysis and of comparable quality in geopotentials to a control forecast from synoptic data. Most impact was noted in the forecasts of vertical motion and precipitation in the gradient vs this control simulation.

Diak, George↗

Nebular properties from far-infrared spectrosopy

We describe a semiempirical methodology-based on measurements of far-infrared (FIR) lines-that yields information on electron densities in regions where various ionic species exist, effective temperatures (T(sub eff)) for stars ionizing H II regions, and gas-phase heavy element abundances. Although this capability has long been available via optical data, the special features of FIR lines-relative insensitivity to extinction and electron temperature variations-extend the analysis ability. Several line ratios serve as diagnostics of electron density, N(sub e), probing different ionization conditions and different density regimes. The more N(sub e)-diagnostic observations made, the more reliable will be the deciphering of the actual variation in density throughout a nebula. A method to estimate T(sub eff) from the FIR (N III)/(N II) line ratio requires that the nebula be ionization bounded and that substantially all of the flux from the revevant lines be observed. However, to estimate T(sub eff) by a second method that uses the ratio of FIR (S III)/(O III) lines, an ionization-bounded nebula is a sufficient, but not necessary, condition. These restrictions are unnecessary for estimating densities and heavy element abundances. We show that a fairly general determination of metallicity, via the S/H ratio, may be made for H II regions with observations of just two lines-(S III) 19 micron and a hydrogen recombination line (or appropriate substitute). These techniques are applied to recent FIR data for the G333.6-0.2 H II region, including application to the recently measured (N II) 122 and 205 micron lines.

Rubin, Robert H.↗

Analysis of large-scale Martian topography variations. I - Data preparation from earth-based radar, earth-based CO2 spectroscopy, and Mariners 6 and 7 CO2 spectroscopy.

Using direct radar ranging of surface heights on Mars and spectrophotometric observations of absorptions produced by carbon dioxide molecules in the Martian atmosphere, data have been obtained on Martian topographical variations at spatial resolutions ranging from about 100 to 1000 km. These data have been studied and analyzed. As a result, a surface height contour map has been produced which clearly reveals a structural complex of blocks and basins whose distribution enhances the magnitude of low-degree surface harmonics. It is emphasized that Mars possesses unexpectedly pronounced topography which can have important geophysical consequences.

Wells, R. A.↗

Seasonal and secular variation of wind streaks on Mars - An analysis of Mariner 9 and Viking data

Viking orbiter observations extending over 1 Martian year have been used in conjunction with Mariner 9 data obtained in 1971-1972 to study the seasonal and secular behavior of several kinds of wind streaks. Most bright streaks, inferred to consist of dust storm fallout in the lees of obstacles, have changed very little in form or orientation over a period of 3 Martian years. Some are extremely stable and have experienced no effective eolian action over the 3 years. A few bright streaks changed rapidly during global dust storms; these streaks are located in areas subject to both global and topographic winds. Viking images have shown for the first time that dark, erosional streaks are stable from the time of their formation after major dust storms until the onset of the next episode of major storm activity. Available evidence shows that the large, dark streaks in Oxia Palus consist of material deflated from dune fields within the associated craters. These streaks lengthened secularly since 1972; changes appear to occur episodically during southern summer. The great majority of all streaks reflect winds during the period from late southern spring to early southern fall, although some changes occur throughout the year. The global pattern of wind streaks and the variability of the streaks thus depend strongly upon the current south-north asymmetry of seasons on Mars.

Thomas, P.↗

Sources of variation in Landsat autocorrelation

Analysis of sixty-four scan lines representing diverse conditions across satellites, channels, scanners, locations and cloud cover confirms that Landsat data are autocorrelated and consistently follow an Arima (1,0,1) pattern. The AR parameter varies significantly with location and the MA coefficient with cloud cover. Maximum likelihood classification functions are considerably in error unless this autocorrelation is compensated for in sampling.

Craig, R. G.↗

Processes of crustal formation and evolution on Venus - An analysis of topography, hypsometry, and crustal thickness variations

Processes of crustal formation and evolution are examined, and the role of crustal thickness variation in the production of topography is assessed. Evidence for crustal composition, age, average crustal thickness, and total crustal volume on Venus is reviewed. It is shown that the present crustal volume of Venus is comparable to that of the present earth. The geologic evidence for variations in crustal thickness on Venus are outlined, and specific examples of regions of apparent crustal thickening are assessed. These observations are compared to a simple model of Airy isostasy using global Venus topography and the end-member hypothesis (that the topography of Venus could result solely from crustal thickness variations). Models to account for these observations are proposed.

Head, James W.↗

An Analysis of the TOPEX/Poseidon Operational Orbit: Observed Variations and Why

Launched in August 1992, TOPEX/Poseidon began and continues a very successful global study of the earth's ocean circulation using a combination of dual-frequency radar altimetry and precision orbit determination (POD). POD results are utilized here to reconstruct the operational orbit history in terms of precise classical mean elements. Elaborations of various facets related to mean elements is discussed.

TOPEX↗

Validation of the DESI DR2 Ly$α$ forest full-shape analysis

We present the validation of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2) Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) forest full-shape analysis. This analysis combines three-dimensional Ly$α$ forest auto-correlations and cross-correlations with quasars to extract information from both the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) feature and the broadband clustering signal, with primary emphasis on the Alcock-Paczynski (AP) measurement. Compared to the DESI DR1 analysis, the DR2 validation uses substantially larger and more realistic mock datasets, including CoLoRe 2LPT and AbacusSummit Ly$α$ forest simulations. The modeling framework is also improved through analytic marginalization over small scales ($<10$$h^{-1}$Mpc) and the impact of ultraviolet background fluctuations. The validation program was completed prior to unblinding and defines quantitative requirements for the cosmological parameters of interest, which are evaluated using hundreds of mock realizations. We further test the analysis through independent fits to the auto- and cross-correlations, multiple catalog splits, and a broad suite of analysis and modeling variations applied to both mocks and blinded observational data. We find that the BAO and AP parameters satisfy all validation requirements and remain stable across all tests. In contrast, mock studies reveal a significant bias in the inferred growth-rate parameter $fσ_8$, leading us to exclude this measurement from the final analysis. The consistency across mocks, data splits, and robustness tests demonstrates that the DR2 Ly$α$ full-shape analysis provides a reliable and substantially improved broadband AP measurement over previous Ly$α$ forest studies.

Herbold, M. [Chicago U., KICP; Ohio State U.] (ORC↗

Crystallization Kinetics of a Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Seal Glass by Differential Thermal Analysis

Crystallization kinetics of a barium calcium aluminosilicate glass (BCAS), a sealant material for planar solid oxide fuel cells, have been investigated by differential thermal analysis (DTA). From variation of DTA peak maximum temperature with heating rate, the activation energy for glass crystallization was calculated to be 259 kJ/mol. Development of crystalline phases on thermal treatments of the glass at various temperatures has been followed by powder x-ray diffraction. Microstructure and chemical composition of the crystalline phases were investigated by scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectroscopic (EDS) analysis. BaSiO3 and hexacelsian (BaAl2Si2O8) were the primary crystalline phases whereas monoclinic celsian (BaAl2Si2O8) and (Ba(x), Ca(y))SiO4 were also detected as minor phases. Needle-shaped BaSiO3 crystals are formed first, followed by the formation of other phases at longer times of heat treatments. The glass does not fully crystallize even after long term heat treatments at 750 to 900 C.

Bansal, Narottam P.↗

Helicopter rotor loads using discretized matched asymptotic expansions

The numerical practicality of a matched asymptotic expansion approach for the computation of unsteady three dimensional airloads on a helicopter rotor was improved. This effort utilizes a discretized repesentation of the doublet strength distribution and helical streamlines to decrease the computational requirements of the original analysis. The continuous variation of the doublet strength was approximated by piecewise constant or piecewise quadratic distributions, and the helical trajectory of a fluid particle was approximated by connected straight line segments. As a direct result of these simplified representations the computational time required for the execution of a typical flight condition was reduced by an order of magnitude with respect to the requirements of the original analysis. Airloads which were computed using the discretized method for a two bladed model rotor and a full scale four bladed rotor are in close agreement with measured results and airloads from the original asymptotic analysis. For conditions characterized by significant rotor/wake interaction the piecewise constant representation requires a reduced azimuth spacing to maintain acceptable accuracy.

Pierce, G. A.↗

Elliptically-Contoured Tensor-variate Distributions with Application to Image Learning

Statistical analysis of tensor-valued data has largely used the tensor-variate normal (TVN) distribution that may be inadequate for data arising from distributions with heavier or lighter tails. We study a general family of elliptically contoured (EC) TV distributions and derive its characterizations, moments, marginal, and conditional distributions. We describe procedures for maximum likelihood estimation from data that are (1) uncorrelated draws from an EC distribution, (2) from a scale mixture of the TVN distribution, and (3) from an underlying but unknown EC distribution, for which we extend Tyler’s robust estimator. A detailed simulation study highlights the benefits of choosing an EC distribution over the TVN for heavier-tailed data. We develop TV classification rules using discriminant analysis and EC errors and show that they better predict cats and dogs from images in the Animal Faces-HQ dataset than the TVN-based rules. A novel tensor-on-tensor regression and TV analysis of variance (TANOVA) framework under EC errors is also demonstrated to better characterize gender, age, and ethnic origin than the usual TVN-based TANOVA in the celebrated labeled faces of the wild dataset.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗