Dynamic and synoptic meteorology
Long range weather forecasting, stratospheric processes, and atmospheric turbulence
ATMOSPHERIC TURBULENCE↗
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Proposed Use of the NASA Ames Nebula Cloud Computing Platform for Numerical Weather Prediction and the Distribution of High Resolution Satellite Imagery
The development of the Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at NASA Ames Research Center provides an open-source solution for the deployment of scalable computing and storage capabilities relevant to the execution of real-time weather forecasts and the distribution of high resolution satellite data to the operational weather community. Two projects at Marshall Space Flight Center may benefit from use of the Nebula system. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center facilitates the use of unique NASA satellite data and research capabilities in the operational weather community by providing datasets relevant to numerical weather prediction, and satellite data sets useful in weather analysis. SERVIR provides satellite data products for decision support, emphasizing environmental threats such as wildfires, floods, landslides, and other hazards, with interests in numerical weather prediction in support of disaster response. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS) has been configured for Nebula cloud computing use via the creation of a disk image and deployment of repeated instances. Given the available infrastructure within Nebula and the "infrastructure as a service" concept, the system appears well-suited for the rapid deployment of additional forecast models over different domains, in response to real-time research applications or disaster response. Future investigations into Nebula capabilities will focus on the development of a web mapping server and load balancing configuration to support the distribution of high resolution satellite data sets to users within the National Weather Service and international partners of SERVIR.
Limaye, Ashutosh S.↗
The NASA Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) Center: A Research to Operations Test Bed
Over the last three years, NASA/MSFC scientists have embarked on an effort to transition unique NASA EOS data/products and research technology to selected NWSEOs in the southeast U.S. This activity, called the Short-term Prediction and - Research Transition (SPoRT) program, supports the NASA Science Mission Directorate and its Earth-Sun System Mission to develop a scientific understanding of the Earth System and its response to natural or human-induced changes that will enable improved prediction capability for climate, weather, and natural hazards. The overarching question related to weather prediction is "How well can weather forecasting duration and reliability be improved by new space-based observations, data assimilation, and modeling?" The transition activity has included the real-time delivery of MODIS data and products to several NWS Forecast Offices. Local NWS FOs have used the MODIS data to complement the coarse resolution GOES data for a number of applications. Specialized products have also been developed and made available to local and remote offices for their weather applications. Data from &e Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) network has been used in severe storm forecasts at several offices in the region. At the regional scale and forecast horizons from 0-1 day, the next generation of high-resolution mesoscale forecast and data assimilation models have been used to provide local offices with unique weather forecasts not otherwise available. The continued use of near red-time infusion of NASA science products into high-resolution mesoscale forecast and decision-making models can be expected to improve the model initialization as well as short-term forecasts. A current focus of SPoRT is to expand collaborations to include contributions from the assimilation of AMSR-E data in the ADASIARPS forecast system (OU), inclusion of MODIS SSTs and AIRS thermodynamic profiles in the WRF, and to extend the distribution of real-time MODIS and AMSR-E data and products to the Florida coastal WFOs. A SPoRT Test bed, together with input from other interagency and university partners, will provide a means and a process to effectively transition ESE observations and technology to NWS operations and decision makers at both the globdnational and regional scales. The transition of emerging experimental products into operations through the SPoRT infrastructure will allow NASA to foster and accelerate the progress of this Science Mission Directorate research strategy over the coming years.
Jedlovec, Gary J.↗
Communication from weather satellites.
Weather satellite design, operation and communication for weather forecasting, particularly Tiros and Nimbus spacecraft
TIROS SATELLITE↗
Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation
Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which configuration options are best to address this specific forecast concern, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) was employed. In addition to the two dynamical cores, there are also two options for a "hot-start" initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; McGinley 1995) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS; Brewster 1996). Both LAPS and ADAS are 3- dimensional weather analysis systems that integrate multiple meteorological data sources into one consistent analysis over the user's domain of interest. This allows mesoscale models to benefit from the addition of highresolution data sources. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and MLB with considerable flexibility as well as challenges. It is the goal of this study to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation.
Watson, Leela R.↗
The systematic investigation of the meteorology of Mars
Weather forecasting for manned Mars landing by use of meteorological satellite
METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE↗
Initial TOS launching scheduled February 2
Tiros operational satellite weather forecasting system based on environmental survey data from Delta-launched Essa I
TIROS OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEM↗
Space technology developments for the world weather watch.
Space technology developments for World Weather Watch, discussing satellites role in weather forecasting, meteorological sensor and instrumentation
METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE↗
Operational Applications of Global Precipitation Measurement Observations
The launch of next-generation satellites with advanced sensors, such as Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory with the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) onboard, provide a unique opportunity to develop new products, tools, and capabilities to enhance operational weather forecasting. Many of the next-generation weather satellites boast of capabilities that have never been used in the operational environment. The operational environment is often fast-paced and requires forecasters to examine and make decisions based on analyzing many different types of data very quickly, particularly in rapidly evolving weather threat situations. This is a stark contrast to the research world, where researchers use a limited number of datasets to answer very specific scientific questions, taking months or years to perform analyses and arrive at conclusions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center strives to bridge the gap between researchers and the operational community of end users to facilitate the transition of research products and capabilities to an operational environment. PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); PRECIPITATION MEASUREMENT; MEASURING INSTRUMENTS; SATELLITE OBSERVATION; OPERATIONS RESEARCH; ALGORITHMS; MICROWAVE SENSORS; MICROWAVE IMAGERYMETEOROLOGICAL RADAR
LeRoy, Anita↗
Severe Weather and Weak Waterspout Checklist in MIDDS
The goal of this task was to migrate the functionality of the AMU web-based Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid and the 45 WS Weak Waterspout Checklist to MIDDS, the operational data ingest and display system of the 45 WS. Forecasting the occurrence and timing of warm season severe weather and weak waterspouts is challenging for 45 WS operational personnel. These interactive tools assist forecasters in determining the probability of issuing severe weather watches and warnings for the day. MIDDS is able retrieve many of the needed parameter values for the worksheet automatically. The AMU was able to develop user-friendly tools in MIDDS for both of these tools using McBASI coded programs. The tools retrieve needed values from MIDDS automatically, and require the forecaster to answer a few subjective questions. Both tools were tested and previewed to the 45 WS on MIDDS. In their previous forms, the forecasters enter values into both tools manually to output a threat index. Making these tools more automatic will reduce the possibility of human error and increase efficiency.
Wheeler, Mark M.↗
When Weather Matters: Science and Service to Meet Critical Societal Needs
The goal of weather prediction is to provide information people and organizations can use to reduce weather-related losses and enhance societal benefits, including protection of life and property, public health and safety, and support of economic prosperity and quality of life. In economic terms, the benefit of the investment in public weather forecasts and warnings is substantial: the estimated annualized benefit is about $31.5 billion, compared to the $5.1 billion cost of generating the information. Between 1980 and 2009, 96 weather disasters in the United States each caused at least $1 billion in damages, with total losses exceeding $700 billion. Between 1999 and 2008, there were an average of 629 direct weather fatalities per year. The annual impacts of adverse weather on the national highway system and roads are staggering: 1.5 million weather-related crashes with 7,400 deaths, more than 700,000 injuries, and $42 billion in economic losses.
Weather forecasting↗
Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS)
SPoRT/SERVIR/RCMRD/KMS Collaboration: Builds off strengths of each organization. SPoRT: Transition of satellite, modeling and verification capabilities; SERVIR‐Africa/RCMRD: International capacity-building expertise; KMS: Operational organization with regional weather forecasting expertise in East Africa. Hypothesis: Improved land‐surface initialization over Eastern Africa can lead to better temperature, moisture, and ultimately precipitation forecasts in NWP models. KMS currently initializes Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with NCEP/Global Forecast System (GFS) model 0.5‐deg initial / boundary condition data. LIS will provide much higher‐resolution land‐surface data at a scale more representative to regional WRF configuration. Future implementation of real‐time NESDIS/VIIRS vegetation fraction to further improve land surface representativeness.
Case, Jonathan L.↗
Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation
Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and NWS MLB with a lot of flexibility. It also creates challenges, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. Four different combinations of WRF initializations will be run (ADAS-ARW, ADAS-NMM, LAPS-ARW, and LAPS-NMM) at a 4-km resolution over the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Five candidate convective initiation days using three different flow regimes over East-Central Florida will be examined, as well as two null cases (non-convection days). Each model run will be integrated 12 hours with three runs per day, at 0900, 1200, and 1500 UTe. ADAS analyses will be generated every 30 minutes using Level II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from all Florida radars to verify the convection forecast. These analyses will be run on the same domain as the four model configurations. To quantify model performance, model output will be subjectively compared to the ADAS analyses of convection to determine forecast accuracy. In addition, a subjective comparison of the performance of the ARW using a high-resolution local grid with 2-way nesting, I-way nesting, and no nesting will be made for select convective initiation cases. The inner grid will cover the East-Central Florida region at a resolution of 1.33 km. The authors will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for predicting warm season convective initiation over East-Central Florida.
Watson, Leela R.↗
A 30-yr high-resolution weather research and forecasting model downscaling data over California and Nevada
This dataset presents a 30-year high resolution meteorological dataset obtained using the WRF model (Advanced version Research WRF version 4.4). We used WRF and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 as initial and boundary conditions to generate gridded meteorological variables. A large number of surface weather stations was used for model validation. A multi-physics analysis was first developed to identify a good physics suite extended from 6 November 00 UTC to 10 November 23 UTC, 2018, which included the Camp Fire in northern California. Based on the best physics suite, the downscaling dataset extends from 1 December to 28 February, 1990–2021 and the horizontal domain has 1.5 km grid spacing covering the entire states of California and Nevada in the United States. Comparisons between hourly surface observations and WRF simulations of air temperature, relative humidity and wind speeds show mean absolute errors on the order of (1.6-2.0 C), (10 %) and 1.2–1.5 m s -1 , respectively.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Lightning and Its Application to Improving Short-Range Forecasting
We ask how lightning measurements might best be used to improve short-term (0-24 hr) weather forecasting. We examine recently developed strategies for the integration of lightning data into Short-term forecasts (nowcasts) of convective and severe weather hazards and the assimilation of lightning data into numerical weather prediction models. In each strategy we define specific metrics of forecast improvement and a progress assessment. We also address the conventional observing system deficiencies and potential gap-filling information that can be addressed through the use of the lightning measurement.
Goodman, Steven J.↗
Simulation of a Real-Time Local Data Integration System over East-Central Florida
The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) simulated a real-time configuration of a Local Data Integration System (LDIS) using data from 15-28 February 1999. The objectives were to assess the utility of a simulated real-time LDIS, evaluate and extrapolate system performance to identify the hardware necessary to run a real-time LDIS, and determine the sensitivities of LDIS. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate analysis products that enhance short-range (less than 6 h) weather forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron, Spaceflight Meteorology Group, and Melbourne National Weather Service operational requirements. The simulation used the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) software on an IBM RS/6000 workstation with a 67-MHz processor. This configuration ran in real-time, but not sufficiently fast for operational requirements. Thus, the AMU recommends a workstation with a 200-MHz processor and 512 megabytes of memory to run the AMU's configuration of LDIS in real-time. This report presents results from two case studies and several data sensitivity experiments. ADAS demonstrates utility through its ability to depict high-resolution cloud and wind features in a variety of weather situations. The sensitivity experiments illustrate the influence of disparate data on the resulting ADAS analyses.
Case, Jonathan↗
Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model. Part I: Objective Verification at Three Selected Stations
A subjective evaluation of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 29-km (meso-) eta model during the 1996 warm (May-August) and cool (October-January) seasons is described. The overall evaluation assessed the utility of the model for operational weather forecasting by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) and NWS Office in Melbourne, FL.
Manobianco, John↗
Demonstrating the Operational Value of Thermodynamic Hyperspectral Profiles in the Pre-Convective Environment
The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecasting Offices (WFO). As a part of the transition to operations process, SPoRT attempts to identify possible limitations in satellite observations and provide operational forecasters a product that will result in the most impact on their forecasts. One operational forecast challenge that some NWS offices face, is forecasting convection in data-void regions such as large bodies of water. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a sounding instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite that provides temperature and moisture profiles of the atmosphere. This paper will demonstrate an approach to assimilate AIRS profile data into a regional configuration of the WRF model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation component to be used as a proxy for the individual profiles.
Kozlowski, Danielle↗