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At least 289 records · Page 16

Cumulative Effects Analysis for Wind Energy Development: Current Practices, Challenges, and Opportunities (IEA Wind White Paper)

The increasing global deployment of wind energy has given rise to concerns about potential adverse effects on certain wildlife species and habitats. The United States and European nations use environmental impact assessments (EIAs) to evaluate the environmental effects of wind energy and inform wind energy planning, siting, and operational processes. A key component of the EIA is the cumulative effects analysis/assessment (CEA). CEAs consider the effects of a proposed development in the context of past, present, and future developments, as well as other (non-wind) activities. However, practitioners worldwide have struggled to implement cost-effective and consistent processes for CEAs. Further, there is no widely accepted scientific methodology to assess cumulative effects. As wind energy deployment continues to expand, developing a consistent and scientifically based approach to CEAs may provide a more comparable across assessments and cost-effective means of reducing risk during siting, operations, and decommissioning/repowering, while minimizing regulatory hurdles. This technical report evaluates the current state of CEA practices, covering both land-based and offshore wind energy development. It focuses on impacts from the preconstruction, construction, and operational phases of the wind farm, which are the phases where most research currently exists. Emerging research addresses impacts from the perspective of life cycle assessments (LCAs), including the impacts of manufacturing and preconstruction (May et al. 2020). The technical report also summarizes CEA processes and guidelines, analysis approaches, and current challenges. Finally, it highlights opportunities for further research and coordination, and includes a geographically organized CEA information resource bank.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Explained: Maintaining a Reliable Future Grid with More Wind and Solar

Since the early 2000s, maintaining grid reliability has become more complex due to a variety of factors, including the changing generation mix, the creation of wholesale energy markets, and a growing number of extreme weather events. Parts of the U.S. grid are already operating with significant amounts of wind and solar generation - with 2022 annual wind and solar generation in the range of 25% to 40%. Even without considering the effects of extreme weather, maintaining reliability will require new capacity to address both growth in electric demand and retiring capacity. Based on the 2022 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Long-Term Reliability Assessment, the combination of both growth in peak demand and retirements suggests a need for more than 100 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity by 2032. In general, there are a five categories of resources that are expected to be deployed and used to meet the challenge of maintaining an adequate source of supply in the coming decades: new wind and solar resources (accounting for their reliability contributions), energy storage, demand response resources, expanded transmission, and continued use of thermal generators.

power grid↗

Energy Transmission and Infrastructure Northern Ohio (OH)

The objective of Energy Transmission and Infrastructure Northern Ohio (OH) was to lay the conceptual and analytical foundation for an energy economy in northern Ohio that will: • improve the efficiency with which energy is used in the residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and transportation sectors for Oberlin, Ohio as a district-wide model for Congressional District OH-09; • identify the potential to deploy wind and solar technologies and the most effective configuration for the regional energy system (i.e., the ratio of distributed or centralized power generation); • analyze the potential within the district to utilize farm wastes to produce biofuels; • enhance long-term energy security by identifying ways to deploy local resources and building Ohio-based enterprises; • identify the policy, regulatory, and financial barriers impeding development of a new energy system; and • improve energy infrastructure within Congressional District OH-09. This objective of laying the foundation for a renewable energy system in Ohio was achieved through four primary areas of activity: 1. district-wide energy infrastructure assessments and alternative-energy transmission studies; 2. energy infrastructure improvement projects undertaken by American Municipal Power (AMP) affiliates in the northern Ohio communities of Elmore, Oak Harbor, and Wellington; 3. Oberlin, OH-area energy assessment initiatives; and 4. a district-wide conference held in September 2011 to disseminate year-one findings. The grant supported 17 research studies by leading energy, policy, and financial specialists, including studies on: current energy use in the district and the Oberlin area; regional potential for energy generation from renewable sources such as solar power, wind, and farm-waste; energy and transportation strategies for transitioning the City of Oberlin entirely to renewable resources and considering pedestrians, bicyclists, and public transportation as well as drivers in developing transportation policies; energy audits and efficiency studies for Oberlin-area businesses and Oberlin College; identification of barriers to residential energy efficiency and development of programming to remove these barriers; mapping of the solar-photovoltaic and wind-energy supply chains in northwest Ohio; and opportunities for vehicle sharing and collaboration among the ten organizations in Lorain County from the private, government, non-profit, and educational sectors. With non-grant funds, organizations have begun or completed projects that drew on the findings of the studies, including: creation of a residential energy-efficiency program for the Oberlin community; installation of energy-efficient lighting in Oberlin College facilities; and development by the City of Oberlin and Oberlin College of a 2.27 megawatt solar photovoltaic facility that is expected to produce 3,000 megawatt-hours of renewable energy annually, 12% of the College’s yearly power needs. Implementation of these and other projects is evidence of the economic feasibility and technical effectiveness of grant-supported studies, and additional projects are expected to advance to implementation in the coming years. The public has benefited through improved energy-delivery systems and reduced energy use for street lighting in Elmore, Oak Harbor, and Wellington; new opportunities for assistance and incentives for residential energy efficiency in the Oberlin community; new opportunities for financial and energy savings through vehicle collaboration within Lorain County; and decreased reliance on fossil fuels and expanded production of renewable energy in the region. The dissemination conference and the summary report developed for the conference also benefited the public, but making the findings and recommendations of the regional studies broadly available to elected officials, city managers, educators, representatives of the private sector, and the general public.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Land Resources for Wind Energy Development Requires Regionalized Characterizations

Estimates of the land area occupied by wind energy differ by orders of magnitude due to data scarcity and inconsistent methodology. Here, we developed a method that combines machine learning-based imagery analysis and geographic information systems and examined the land area of 318 wind farms (15,871 turbines) in the U.S. portion of the Western Interconnection. We found that prior land use and human modification in the project area are critical for land-use efficiency and land transformation of wind projects. Projects developed in areas with little human modification have a land-use efficiency of 63.8 ± 8.9 W/m 2 (mean ±95% confidence interval) and a land transformation of 0.24 ± 0.07 m 2 /MWh, while values for projects in areas with high human modification are 447 ± 49.4 W/m 2 and 0.05 ± 0.01 m 2 /MWh, respectively. We show that land resources for wind can be quantified consistently with our replicable method, a method that obviates >99% of the workload using machine learning. To quantify the peripheral impact of a turbine, buffered geometry can be used as a proxy for measuring land resources and metrics when a large enough impact radius is assumed (e.g., >4 times the rotor diameter). Our analysis provides a necessary first step toward regionalized impact assessment and improved comparisons of energy alternatives.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

How accurate is a machine learning-based wind speed extrapolation under a round-robin approach?

As the size of commercial wind turbines keeps increasing, having accurate ways to vertically extrapolate wind speed is essential to obtain a precise characterization of the wind resource for wind energy production. Recently, machine learning has been proposed and applied to extrapolate wind speed to hub heights. However, previous studies trained and tested the machine learning methods at the same site, giving them an unfair advantage over the conventional extrapolation techniques, which are instead more universal. Here, we use data from four sites in Oklahoma to test a round-robin validation approach for machine learning, under which we train a random forest at a site, and test it at a different site, where the model has no prior knowledge of the wind resource. We quantify how the accuracy of this technique varies with distance from the training site, and we find that it outperforms conventional techniques for wind extrapolation at all the considered spatial separations. We then assess how the accuracy of the machine-learning based approach varies when it is used to predict wind speed in a wind farm far wake. Finally, we explore as case study the performance of the random forest in extrapolating winds during a low-level jet event.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Bookending the Opportunity to Lower Wind’s LCOE by Reducing the Uncertainty Surrounding Annual Energy Production

Reducing the performance risk surrounding a wind project can potentially lead to a lower weighted-average cost of capital (WACC), and hence a lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE), through an advantageous shift in capital structure, and possibly also a reduction in the cost of capital. Specifically, a reduction in performance risk will move the 1-year P99 annual energy production (AEP) estimate closer to the P50 AEP estimate, which in turn reduces the minimum debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) required by lenders, thereby allowing the project to be financed with a greater proportion of low-cost debt. In addition, a reduction in performance risk might also reduce the cost of one or more of the three sources of capital that are commonly used to finance wind projects: sponsor or cash equity, tax equity, and/or debt. Preliminary internal LBNL analysis of the maximum possible LCOE reduction attainable from reducing the performance risk of a wind project found a potentially significant opportunity for LCOE reduction of ~$10/MWh, by reducing the P50 DSCR to its theoretical minimum value of 1.0 (Bolinger 2015b, 2014) and by reducing the cost of sponsor equity and debt by one-third to one-half each (Bolinger 2015a, 2015b). However, with FY17 funding from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) Performance Risk, Uncertainty, and Finance (PRUF) initiative, LBNL has been revisiting this “bookending” exercise in more depth, and now believes that its earlier preliminary assessment of the LCOE reduction opportunity was overstated. This reassessment is based on two new-found understandings: (1) Due to ever-present and largely irreducible inter-annual variability (IAV) in the wind resource, the minimum required DSCR cannot possibly fall to 1.0 (on a P50 basis), and (2) A reduction in AEP uncertainty will not necessarily lead to a reduction in the cost of capital, meaning that a shift in capital structure is perhaps the best that can be expected (perhaps along with a modest decline in the cost of cash equity as new investors enter the market).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evolution and Impact of Saturn V on Space Launch System from a Guidance, Navigation, and Mission Analysis Perspective

The Saturn V launch vehicle represented a jump in capability for heavy lift launch vehicles, enabling the Lunar Orbit Rendezvous approach to planetary exploration employed by the Apollo program 50 years ago. Following Apollo, and the development of the Space Transportation System, the NASA space exploration program shifted focus from lunar exploration to long-term, sustained, re-usable access to Low Earth Orbit. With the recent focus of NASA on the Artemis program and continued exploration of cislunar space as a precursor to Martian exploration, the shift has swung back to heavy lift capability. To meet this need, NASA has developed the Space Launch System. While the vehicle is a new design, it is heavily influenced by the engineering solutions and approach used on the Saturn V while taking advantage of the state of the art of launch vehicle design. The approach to abort, for example, shares many familiarities with the triggers and concept of operations used on Saturn V. Analysis approaches to dispersed trajectory performance are also very similar, but advances in computing technology have enabled a much more expanded set of inputs that can be modelled and assessed in a rapid manner. Additionally, guided flight algorithms share similar first principles but have expanded to include day of launch wind information. Trajectory optimization has also advanced significantly due to the availability of computing resources, but similar maneuvers and profiles are flown across both vehicles. Also, while the approach of onboard inertial navigation has been maintained between the two programs, the shift from platform to strapdown systems enables reduced complexity in the system design while maintaining required performance. As described, the Space Launch System is the evolution of NASA launch vehicle designs, owing a large heritage to the Saturn vehicle program and incorporating advances in propulsion systems, avionics, computing, and sensor technology over the past 50 years.

Ahmad, Naeem↗

Celestial Mapping System

Celestial Mapping System (CMS) is a desktop application that provides a toolkit of features for visualization and analysis of celestial bodies, beginning with a 3D lunar globe. Although there are lunar mapping products publicly available, they use old data from lunar missions, have no native desktop version, and they are mostly 2D. CMS addresses this by providing high-resolution datasets from recent lunar missions, accurate elevation data to display and read 3D terrain, and is built on top of World Wind Java library which provides a rich set of functionality and the ability to easily expand to other celestial bodies. CMS is also looking at implementing features to support situational awareness, path optimization and resource assessment, which will be of use in upcoming missions to the lunar surface. CMS utilizes geospatial tools such as QGIS and GDAL to test and modify planetary data. Other features include the ability to enable specific place names, a measurement toolbox, terrain profiler, the ability to view the moon in stereo, navigation capabilities, and an interactive visit to the Apollo landing sites which showcase 3D objects of the astronauts and lunar landers. In the world of planetary mapping, CMS aims to significantly improve upon existing functionalities, and bring new tools, that will be useful to the planetary science community and mission planners.

Kaitlyn Dickinson↗

Closed-Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower Resource Assessment for the United States. Final Report on HydroWIRES Project D1: Improving Hydropower and PSH Representations in Capacity Expansion Models

Pumped storage hydropower represents the bulk of the United States' current energy storage capacity: 23 gigawatts (GW) of the 24-GW national total (Denholm et al. 2021). This capacity was largely built between 1960 and 1990. PSH is a mature and proven method of energy storage with competitive round-trip efficiency and long life spans. These qualities make PSH a very attractive potential solution to energy storage needs, particularly for longer-duration storage (8 hours or more); such storage will be crucial to bridge gaps in electricity production as variable wind and solar production continue to comprise an ever-larger portion of the United States' energy portfolio (Cole et al. 2021; Frazier et al. 2021). However, it is unclear how much potential the United States has for the development of new PSH. No new large PSH has been constructed in the United States since the 1990s, and attempts to quantify technical potential capacity from PSH project applications to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) suffer from inconsistent site and cost evaluation methodologies and likely are not representative of all PSH opportunities. This study seeks to better under understand the technical potential for PSH development in the United States by developing a national-scale resource assessment for closed-loop PSH. Individual sites are not modeled in sufficient detail for project-level development, but they do provide valuable insights into potential resource areas across the United States, including the ability to provide estimates for a range of long-term development scenarios.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Water demand for electricity in deep decarbonisation scenarios: a multi-model assessment

This study assesses the effects of deep electricity decarbonisation and shifts in the choice of power plant cooling technologies on global electricity water demand, using a suite of five integrated assessment models. We find that electricity sector decarbonisation results in co-benefits for water resources primarily due to the phase-out of water-intensive coal-based thermoelectric power generation, although these co-benefits vary substantially across decarbonisation scenarios. Wind and solar photovoltaic power represent a win-win option for both climate and water resources, but further expansion of nuclear or fossil- and biomass-fuelled power plants with carbon capture and storage may result in increased pressures on the water environment. Further to these results, the paper provides insights on the most crucial factors of uncertainty with regards to future estimates of water demand. These estimates varied substantially across models in scenarios where the effects of decarbonisation on the electricity mix were less clear-cut. Future thermal and water efficiency improvements of power generation technologies and demand-side energy efficiency improvements were also identified to be important factors of uncertainty. We conclude that in order to ensure positive effects of decarbonisation on water resources, climate policy should be combined with technology-specific energy and/or water policies.

BIOENERGY↗

Laboratory-Scale Microgrid System for Control of Power Distribution in Local Energy Networks - Part I: Theory and Design

One of the promising solutions to achieve sustainable energy systems in future smart cities is to deploy microgrids in local energy networks. Due to the decentralized nature of microgrids, large-scale utilization of these resources will increase the reliability of the energy systems as well as facilitating the integration of renewable energy resources to enable more environmentally-friendly energy network. This chapter presents development of a highly reconfigurable, laboratory-scale microgrid testbed. The proposed microgrid system integrates several distributed generation (DG) units representing photovoltaic panel, wind turbine, battery energy storage and etc. The schematic of the proposed system can be customized to investigate numerous grid architectures and control scenarios. In this study, the loads and energy resource allocation are realized by assessment of the loads and resources priority. Therefore, a hierarchical procedure will take place to allocate the power to different buses in microgrid. In the next chapter, we describe the test-bed implementation of the designed microgrid.

design↗

Improving estimates of transmission capital costs for utility-scale wind and solar projects to inform renewable energy policy

Estimating the overall costs of transmission needed to integrate variable renewable energy (VRE) onto the grid is challenging. An improved understanding of these transmission costs would support electricity system planning as VRE penetrations increase. This paper brackets VRE transmission capital costs using multiple approaches based on interconnection studies, actual transmission projects, capacity-expansion simulation models, and aggregated U.S. VRE-related transmission expenditures. Each approach possesses advantages and drawbacks, and combining the approaches lends confidence to the results. The resulting range of average levelized VRE transmission costs is 1– 10 dollars/MWh, which is generally lower than earlier estimates in the literature. These transmission capital costs can increase the direct plant-level levelized cost of VRE by 3%–33%, based on levelized costs of energy of 29– 56 dollars/MWh for utility-scale wind and 36–46 dollars/MWh for utility-scale solar. As VRE deployment continues to expand, policy makers can use this information to (1) assess the benefits of transmission avoidance and deferral when comparing distributed energy resources versus utility-scale projects, (2) evaluate the potential costs of large-scale public transmission investments, and (3) better analyze system-level costs of utility-scale VRE technologies. Future research can expand on the framework presented here by providing a review of operation and maintenance costs for transmission systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Influences on hydrogen production at a wind farm

If an affordable infrastructure for low-carbon-intensity hydrogen can be developed, then hydrogen is expected to become a key factor in decarbonizing the atmosphere. This research focuses on factors an existing wind farm operator would consider when weighing participating in the electricity market, the hydrogen market, or both. The solutions depend on the state of technology, which is changing rapidly, the local market structures, the local natural resources, and the local pre-existing infrastructure. Consequently, this investigation used an assessment approach that examined the variation of net present value. The investigation identified profitability conditions under three different scenarios: 1) Make and sell what makes economic sense at the time of production, 2) Use electrolyzer and fuel cell to consume power from the grid at times of low net demand and to produce electricity at times of high net demand, 3) Same as #2 but also market hydrogen directly when profitable.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Resource Assessment for Hydrogen Production: Hydrogen Production Potential from Fossil and Renewable Energy Resources

This study examines the energy resources required to produce 4-10 million metric tonnes of domestic, low-carbon hydrogen in order to fuel approximately 20-50 million fuel cell electric vehicles. These projected energy resource requirements are compared to current consumption levels, projected 2040 business as usual consumptions levels, and projected 2040 consumption levels within a carbonconstrained future for the following energy resources: coal (assuming carbon capture and storage), natural gas, nuclear (uranium), biomass, wind (on- and offshore), and solar (photovoltaics and concentrating solar power). The analysis framework builds upon previous analysis results estimating hydrogen production potentials and drawing comparisons with economy-wide resource production projections

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Power Generation Technology Comparison from a Life Cycle Perspective [Slides]

This analysis provides insight into key criteria for the feasibility of seven types of energy technologies. The seven types of technologies include electricity from natural gas, co-firing of coal and biomass, nuclear fuel, wind, hydropower, geothermal, and solar thermal resources. The key criteria for evaluating these technologies are defined.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dashboard for Marine Energy Site Assessment and Monitoring

The marine energy (ME) industry presently relies upon fragmented site assessment solutions that require high resource expenditure for deployment at each site and do not leverage the wealth of readily available tools and information. A wave energy resource assessment dashboard, currently in development, will substantially improve siting, permitting, operations, and maintenance of ME projects by providing an integrated solution that is a one-stop-shop for a developer’s needs. The Site Energy Assessment and MOnitoring Dashboard (SEAMOD) will be of commercial interest to anyone seeking to deploy an ME project and is easily expandable to include tidal and wind energy site assessments. The integrated dashboard is being developed using state-of-the-art database and cloud computing methods and data-assimilative modeling tools that can be coupled with low-cost, rapidly deployable wave buoys and environmental sensing hardware. The combined software and hardware dashboard will reduce wave energy site characterization and wave climate monitoring costs by more than 60 percent and provide assessments that meet international industry standards. To realize a thriving global ME industry, the physical environment at a potential deployment site must be understood, not only for resource characterization, but also for optimization of device and power conversion performance. SEAMOD directly addresses these needs with a commercially marketable product. SEAMOD is a low-cost solution that provides comprehensive ME resource assessments, baseline environmental monitoring, and offshore characterizations required for successful ME development. The key technical objectives for Phase I were a series of software development goals, which when implemented with monitoring solutions, produced an initial proof-of-concept low-cost wave energy resources dashboard. In Phase II, the development of the prototype SEAMOD continued. The basic framework employed was the development of a revised dashboard and monitoring tool customized for ME applications by focusing on IEC site assessment and method requirements. Development was focused on the integration of full hindcast metocean products to provide hindcast resource characterization and environmental information. The final integrated dashboard provides a low-cost solution that delivers comprehensive, scalable, industry-standard energy resource assessments and offshore characterizations required for successful ME development. The integrated dashboard offers visibility of the most recent site modeling, measurements, and historical data. The application and integration of consensus-based standards for wave energy resource assessment, as determined by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), are crucial for the impact and value of SEAMOD. SEAMOD includes monthly, seasonal, and yearly statistics, as well as the total 30-year record, offering temporal resolution of the IEC parameters to aid potential developers in determining the available wave energy resources in their area of interest.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Keep it short: Exploring the impacts of configuration choices on the recent economics of solar-plus-battery and wind-plus-battery hybrid energy plants

Coupled renewable-battery powerplants differ from the traditional concept of independent siting of electricity resources within transmission networks. Prior research on the value proposition and cost savings from coupling did not consider the geographic constraint of co-location. This paper fills the gap by assessing how pricing volatility differences between nodes within electricity markets impact the system value of coupled renewable-battery projects as compared to independent VRE and battery installations. We use wholesale power market prices from 2012–2019 across the seven main U.S. independent system operators (ISOs) with a linear optimization program to compare the electricity market value of coupled projects to the value of the same underlying sub-components, deployed separately. We find that additional value from adding a 4-hour battery sized to 50% of renewable-plant nameplate capacity is $\$10$/MWh across ISOs on average. The highest boost occurs in California ($\$15$/MWh), where the value of adding storage to solar rises over time in tandem with increased solar penetration in the region. If renewables and batteries are deployed independently, we estimate that $\$12.5$/MWh of additional value could be achieved because of more flexibility on battery siting and operation. The $\$12.5$/MWh coupling penalty is reduced to $\$1.6$/MWh when considering alternative approaches to integrating battery storage. This result implies that renewable-battery power plants will play an increasing role in electricity systems if they can be built for $\$2$–$\$13$/MWh less than independent projects of comparable size. However, the wide regional variation in coupling penalties, along with the importance of conditions captured in our sensitivity cases, suggests the tradeoff between coupling penalties and savings will vary by situation. Therefore, roles exist for independent and coupled projects from a system optimization perspective.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Seasonal variability of wake impacts on US mid-Atlantic offshore wind plant power production

Abstract. The mid-Atlantic will experience rapid wind plant development due to its promising wind resource located near large population centers. Wind turbines and wind plants create wakes, or regions of reduced wind speed, that may negatively affect downwind turbines and plants. We evaluate wake variability and annual energy production with the first yearlong modeling assessment using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, deploying 12 MW turbines across the domain at a density of 3.14 MW km−2, matching the planned density of 3 MW km−2. Using a series of simulations with no wind plants, one wind plant, and complete build-out of lease areas, we calculate wake effects and distinguish the effect of wakes generated internally within one plant from those generated externally between plants. We also provide a first step towards uncertainty quantification by testing the amount of added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) by 0 % and 100 %. We provide a sensitivity analysis by additionally comparing 25 % and 50 % for a short case study period. The strongest wakes, propagating 55 km, occur in summertime stable stratification, just when New England's grid demand peaks in summer. The seasonal variability of wakes in this offshore region is much stronger than the diurnal variability of wakes. Overall, yearlong simulated wake impacts reduce power output by a range between 38.2 % and 34.1 % (for 0 %–100 % added TKE). Internal wakes cause greater yearlong power losses, from 29.2 % to 25.7 %, compared to external wakes, from 14.7 % to 13.4 %. The overall impact is different from the linear sum of internal wakes and external wakes due to non-linear processes. Additional simulations quantify wake uncertainty by modifying the added amount of turbulent kinetic energy from wind turbines, introducing power output variability of 3.8 %. Finally, we compare annual energy production to New England grid demand and find that the lease areas can supply 58.8 % to 61.2 % of annual load. We note that the results of this assessment are not intended to make nor are they suitable to make commercial judgments about specific wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗