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NASA NTRS2019

A Double Bootstrap Approach to Superposed Epoch Analysis to Evaluate Response Uncertainty

The association between climate variability and episodic events, such as the antecedent moisture conditions prior to wildfire or the cooling following volcanic eruptions, is commonly assessed using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA). In SEA the epochal response is typically calculated as the average climate conditions prior to and following all event years or their deviation from climatology. However, the magnitude and significance of the inferred climate association may be sensitive to the selection or omission of individual key years, potentially resulting in a biased assessment of the relationship between these events and climate. Here we describe and test a modified double-bootstrap SEA that generates multiple unique draws of the key years and evaluates the sign, magnitude, and significance of event-climate relationships within a probabilistic framework. This multiple resampling helps quantify multiple uncertainties inherent in conventional applications of SEA within dendrochronology and paleoclimatology. We demonstrate our modified SEA by evaluating the volcanic cooling signal in a Northern Hemisphere tree-ring temperature reconstruction and the link between drought and wildfire events in the western United States. Finally, we make our Matlab and R code available to be adapted for future SEA applications.

Dendroclimatology↗

NASA NTRS1999

Is the spatial distribution of brain lesions associated with closed-head injury predictive of subsequent development of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder? Analysis with brain-image database

PURPOSE: To determine whether there is an association between the spatial distribution of lesions detected at magnetic resonance (MR) imaging of the brain in children after closed-head injury and the development of secondary attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data obtained from 76 children without prior history of ADHD were analyzed. MR images were obtained 3 months after closed-head injury. After manual delineation of lesions, images were registered to the Talairach coordinate system. For each subject, registered images and secondary ADHD status were integrated into a brain-image database, which contains depiction (visualization) and statistical analysis software. Using this database, we assessed visually the spatial distributions of lesions and performed statistical analysis of image and clinical variables. RESULTS: Of the 76 children, 15 developed secondary ADHD. Depiction of the data suggested that children who developed secondary ADHD had more lesions in the right putamen than children who did not develop secondary ADHD; this impression was confirmed statistically. After Bonferroni correction, we could not demonstrate significant differences between secondary ADHD status and lesion burdens for the right caudate nucleus or the right globus pallidus. CONCLUSION: Closed-head injury-induced lesions in the right putamen in children are associated with subsequent development of secondary ADHD. Depiction software is useful in guiding statistical analysis of image data.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

NASA NTRS2005

Software Developed for Analyzing High- Speed Rolling-Element Bearings

COBRA-AHS (Computer Optimized Ball & Roller Bearing Analysis--Advanced High Speed, J.V. Poplawski & Associates, Bethlehem, PA) is used for the design and analysis of rolling element bearings operating at high speeds under complex mechanical and thermal loading. The code estimates bearing fatigue life by calculating three-dimensional subsurface stress fields developed within the bearing raceways. It provides a state-of-the-art interactive design environment for bearing engineers within a single easy-to-use design-analysis package. The code analyzes flexible or rigid shaft systems containing up to five bearings acted upon by radial, thrust, and moment loads in 5 degrees of freedom. Bearing types include high-speed ball, cylindrical roller, and tapered roller bearings. COBRA-AHS is the first major upgrade in 30 years of such commercially available bearing software. The upgrade was developed under a Small Business Innovation Research contract from the NASA Glenn Research Center, and incorporates the results of 30 years of NASA and industry bearing research and technology.

Fleming, David P.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Methodology for sensitivity analysis, approximate analysis, and design optimization in CFD for multidisciplinary applications

In this study involving advanced fluid flow codes, an incremental iterative formulation (also known as the delta or correction form) together with the well-known spatially-split approximate factorization algorithm, is presented for solving the very large sparse systems of linear equations which are associated with aerodynamic sensitivity analysis. For smaller 2D problems, a direct method can be applied to solve these linear equations in either the standard or the incremental form, in which case the two are equivalent. Iterative methods are needed for larger 2D and future 3D applications, however, because direct methods require much more computer memory than is currently available. Iterative methods for solving these equations in the standard form are generally unsatisfactory due to an ill-conditioning of the coefficient matrix; this problem can be overcome when these equations are cast in the incremental form. These and other benefits are discussed. The methodology is successfully implemented and tested in 2D using an upwind, cell-centered, finite volume formulation applied to the thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations. Results are presented for two sample airfoil problems: (1) subsonic low Reynolds number laminar flow; and (2) transonic high Reynolds number turbulent flow.

Taylor, Arthur C., III↗

NASA NTRS1961

Application of Monte Carlo Technique for Determining Maneuvering Loads from Statistical Information on Airplane Motions

Results of a statistical analysis of horizontal-tail loads on a fighter airplane are presented. The data were obtained from a number of operational training missions with flight at altitudes up to about 50,000 feet and at Mach numbers up to 1.22. The analysis was performed to determine the feasibility of calculating horizontal-tail load from data on the flight conditions and airplane motions. In the analysis the calculated loads are compared with the measured loads for the different types of missions performed. The loads were calculated by two methods: a direct approach and a Monte Carlo technique. The procedures used and some of the problems associated with the data analysis are discussed. frequencies of occurrence of tail loads of given magnitudes are derived from statistical information on the flight quantities. In the direct method, a time history of tail load is calculated from time-history measurements of the flight quantities. The Monte Carlo method could be useful for extending loads information for design of prospective airplanes . For the Monte Carlo method, the The results indicate that the accuracy of loads, regardless of the method used for calculation, is largely dependent on the knowledge of the pertinent airplane aerodynamic characteristics and center-of-gravity location. In addition, reliable Monte Carlo results require an adequate sample of statistical data and a knowledge of the more important statistical dependencies between the various flight conditions and airplane motions.

Hamer, Harold A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Cost Analysis in a Multi-Mission Operations Environment

Spacecraft control centers have evolved from dedicated, single-mission or single mission-type support to multi-mission, service-oriented support for operating a variety of mission types. At the same time, available money for projects is shrinking and competition for new missions is increasing. These factors drive the need for an accurate and flexible model to support estimating service costs for new or extended missions; the cost model in turn drives the need for an accurate and efficient approach to service cost analysis. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides operations services to a variety of customers around the world. HOSC customers range from launch vehicle test flights; to International Space Station (ISS) payloads; to small, short duration missions; and has included long duration flagship missions. The HOSC recently completed a detailed analysis of service costs as part of the development of a complete service cost model. The cost analysis process required the team to address a number of issues. One of the primary issues involves the difficulty of reverse engineering individual mission costs in a highly efficient multi-mission environment, along with a related issue of the value of detailed metrics or data to the cost model versus the cost of obtaining accurate data. Another concern is the difficulty of balancing costs between missions of different types and size and extrapolating costs to different mission types. The cost analysis also had to address issues relating to providing shared, cloud-like services in a government environment, and then assigning an uncertainty or risk factor to cost estimates that are based on current technology, but will be executed using future technology. Finally the cost analysis needed to consider how to validate the resulting cost models taking into account the non-homogeneous nature of the available cost data and the decreasing flight rate. This paper presents the issues encountered during the HOSC cost analysis process, and the associated lessons learned. These lessons can be used when planning for a new multi-mission operations center or in the transformation from a dedicated control center to multi-center operations, as an aid in defining processes that support future cost analysis and estimation. The lessons can also be used by mature service-oriented, multi-mission control centers to streamline or refine their cost analysis process.

Felton, Larry↗

NASA NTRS2014

Cost Analysis In A Multi-Mission Operations Environment

Spacecraft control centers have evolved from dedicated, single-mission or single missiontype support to multi-mission, service-oriented support for operating a variety of mission types. At the same time, available money for projects is shrinking and competition for new missions is increasing. These factors drive the need for an accurate and flexible model to support estimating service costs for new or extended missions; the cost model in turn drives the need for an accurate and efficient approach to service cost analysis. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides operations services to a variety of customers around the world. HOSC customers range from launch vehicle test flights; to International Space Station (ISS) payloads; to small, short duration missions; and has included long duration flagship missions. The HOSC recently completed a detailed analysis of service costs as part of the development of a complete service cost model. The cost analysis process required the team to address a number of issues. One of the primary issues involves the difficulty of reverse engineering individual mission costs in a highly efficient multimission environment, along with a related issue of the value of detailed metrics or data to the cost model versus the cost of obtaining accurate data. Another concern is the difficulty of balancing costs between missions of different types and size and extrapolating costs to different mission types. The cost analysis also had to address issues relating to providing shared, cloud-like services in a government environment, and then assigning an uncertainty or risk factor to cost estimates that are based on current technology, but will be executed using future technology. Finally the cost analysis needed to consider how to validate the resulting cost models taking into account the non-homogeneous nature of the available cost data and the decreasing flight rate. This paper presents the issues encountered during the HOSC cost analysis process, and the associated lessons learned. These lessons can be used when planning for a new multi-mission operations center or in the transformation from a dedicated control center to multi-center operations, as an aid in defining processes that support future cost analysis and estimation. The lessons can also be used by mature serviceoriented, multi-mission control centers to streamline or refine their cost analysis process.

Newhouse, M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Associative Flow Rule Used to Include Hydrostatic Stress Effects in Analysis of Strain-Rate-Dependent Deformation of Polymer Matrix Composites

designing reliable composite engine cases that are lighter than the metal cases in current use. The types of polymer matrix composites that are likely to be used in such an application have a deformation response that is nonlinear and that varies with strain rate. The nonlinearity and the strain-rate dependence of the composite response are due primarily to the matrix constituent. Therefore, in developing material models to be used in the design of impact-resistant composite engine cases, the deformation of the polymer matrix must be correctly analyzed. However, unlike in metals, the nonlinear response of polymers depends on the hydrostatic stresses, which must be accounted for within an analytical model. By applying micromechanics techniques along with given fiber properties, one can also determine the effects of the hydrostatic stresses in the polymer on the overall composite deformation response. First efforts to account for the hydrostatic stress effects in the composite deformation applied purely empirical methods that relied on composite-level data. In later efforts, to allow polymer properties to be characterized solely on the basis of polymer data, researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center developed equations to model the polymers that were based on a non-associative flow rule, and efforts to use these equations to simulate the deformation of representative polymer materials were reasonably successful. However, these equations were found to have difficulty in correctly analyzing the multiaxial stress states found in the polymer matrix constituent of a composite material. To correct these difficulties, and to allow for the accurate simulation of the nonlinear strain-rate-dependent deformation analysis of polymer matrix composites, in the efforts reported here Glenn researchers reformulated the polymer constitutive equations from basic principles using the concept of an associative flow rule. These revised equations were characterized and validated in an experimental program carried out through a university grant with the Ohio State University, wherein tensile and shear deformation data were obtained for a representative polymer for strain rates ranging from quasi-static to high rates of several hundred per second. Tensile deformation data also were obtained over a variety of strain rates and fiber orientation angles for a representative polymer matrix composite composed using the polymer.

Goldberg, Robert K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Data Analysis and Simulation Study of Urban Air Mobility

For the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) industry, NASA has defined a series of UAM Maturity Levels (UML) corresponding to increasingly more complex and operationally dense UAM operations. In support of the gradual progression towards higher UML levels, NASA is currently conducting a set of UAM air traffic simulations—collectively referred to as X4. This paper describes a set of system effectiveness measures, and their associated metrics, for data analysis of X4 simulations. The descriptions, rationales, and calculation procedures for two metrics to be used in data analysis of simulation results, the number of predicted demand-capacity imbalances and the pre-departure delays, are described. Results from data analysis of one set of simulation runs are presented to demonstrate how these metrics support the assessment of performance of the system architecture for X4 simulations and the verification of experiment requirements.

Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Data Analysis Approach for Simulations of Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRS1973

Recent advances in numerical analysis of structural eigenvalue problems

A wide range of eigenvalue problems encountered in practical structural engineering analyses is defined, in which the structures are assumed to be discretized by any suitable technique such as the finite-element method. A review of the usual numerical procedures for the solution of such eigenvalue problems is presented and is followed by an extensive account of recently developed eigenproblem solution procedures. Particular emphasis is placed on the new numerical algorithms and associated computer programs based on the Sturm sequence method. Eigenvalue algorithms developed for efficient solution of natural frequency and buckling problems of structures are presented, as well as some eigenvalue procedures formulated in connection with the solution of quadratic matrix equations associated with free vibration analysis of structures. A new algorithm is described for natural frequency analysis of damped structural systems.

Gupta, K. K.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Relating Downlink Data Products to Uplink Commands

An improved data-labeling system provides for automatic association of data products of an exploratory robot (downlink information) with previously transmitted commands (uplink information) that caused the robot to gather the data. Such association is essential to correct and timely analysis of the data products -- including, for example, association of the data with the correct targets. The system was developed for use on Mars Rover missions during the next few years. The system could also be adapted to terrestrial exploratory telerobots for which delays between commands and data returns are long enough to give rise to questions as to which commands resulted in which data returns. The main advantage of this system over prior data-labeling systems is that given a downlink data product, the uplink command and sequence hierarchy that produced it are automatically provided, and given an uplink sequence and command, the downlink data products that it produced are automatically provided.

Backes, Paul↗

NASA NTRS1973

Monitoring flood damage with satellite imagery

During analysis of ERTS-1 imagery for land use patterns a large impoundment of water was observed in a location that was normally farmland. Subsequent investigation revealed that the satellite had recorded the remaining floodwaters from a severe local rainstorm that had occurred four days prior to the overpass. The inundated area was measured using the automatic planimeter associated with the signal analysis and dissemination equipment located at the Remote Sensing Institute. The area measurement coupled with estimates of the land use and productivity of the region permitted an estimate of the crop damage loss for the inundated area.

Benson, L. A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

On development of a finite dynamic element and solution of associated eigenproblem by a block Lanczos procedure

The paper first presents the details of the development of a new six-noded plane triangular finite dynamic element. A block Lanczos algorithm is developed next for the accurate and efficient solution of the quadratic matrix eigenvalue problem associated with the finite dynamic element formulation. The resulting computer program fully exploits matrix sparsity inherent in such a discretization and proves to be most efficient for the extraction of the usually required first few roots and vectors, including repeated ones. Most importantly, the present eigenproblem solution is shown to be comparable to that of the corresponding finite element analysis, thereby rendering the associated dynamic element method rather attractive owing to superior convergence characteristics of such elements, presented herein.

Gupta, K. K.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Micromechanics-Based Structural Analysis (FEAMAC) and Multiscale Visualization within Abaqus/CAE Environment

A unified framework is presented that enables coupled multiscale analysis of composite structures and associated graphical pre- and postprocessing within the Abaqus/CAE environment. The recently developed, free, Finite Element Analysis--Micromechanics Analysis Code (FEAMAC) software couples NASA's Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) with Abaqus/Standard and Abaqus/Explicit to perform micromechanics based FEA such that the nonlinear composite material response at each integration point is modeled at each increment by MAC/GMC. The Graphical User Interfaces (FEAMAC-Pre and FEAMAC-Post), developed through collaboration between SIMULIA Erie and the NASA Glenn Research Center, enable users to employ a new FEAMAC module within Abaqus/CAE that provides access to the composite microscale. FEA IAC-Pre is used to define and store constituent material properties, set-up and store composite repeating unit cells, and assign composite materials as sections with all data being stored within the CAE database. Likewise FEAMAC-Post enables multiscale field quantity visualization (contour plots, X-Y plots), with point and click access to the microscale i.e., fiber and matrix fields).

Arnold, Steven M.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Plasmaspheric Drainage Plumes: Inner-Magnetospheric Coupling from the IMAGE/EUV Perspective

Plasmaspheric drainage plumes appear in the aftermath of periods of enhanced convection/erosion and are interpreted as a near-equatorial signature of the redistribution of thermal plasma along streamlines. Analysis of IMAGE/EUV observations from "FirstLight" through the end of calendar year 2002 reveals that for Kp greater than or equal to 3, there is an 84% probability of observing a plasmaspheric plume in EUV data. We present a statistical analysis of the geomagnetic conditions [Kp, Dst, and solar wind-induced electric field] associated with EUV plume observations. This analysis yields a peak in observational probability when Kp = 4 and Dst = -50 nT. Additionally, EUV pllume observations are associated with a solar wind-induced convection electric field at Earth [Ev, SM] characterized by bi-modal behavior with a positive mode peaked at approximately 4 m V(raised dot) m(sup -1) and a negative model that peaks at -2 mV (raised dot) m(sup -1). Analysis of the time rate of change of the plume-associated Ev, SM indicated that once the mechanism for plume formation is initiated, a slowly changing convection environment is required to allow for sufficient plume development prior to EUV detection.

Adrian, Mark L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Analysis of faults in an N-version software experiment

The authors have conducted a large-scale experiment in N-version programming. A total of 27 versions of a program were prepared independently from the same specification at two universities. The results of executing the versions revealed that the versions were individually extremely reliable but that the number of input cases in which more than one failed was substantially more than would be expected if they were statistically independent. After the versions had been executed, the failures of each version were examined and the associated faults located. The analysis showed that in some cases the programmers made equivalent logical errors, indicating that some parts of the problem were simply more difficult than others. The authors also found cases in which apparently different logical errors yielded faults that caused statistically correlated failures, indicating that there are special cases in the input space that present difficulty in various parts of the solution. A formal model is presented to explain this phenomenon. It appears that minor differences in the software development environment would not have a major impact in reducing the incidence of faults that cause correlated failures.

Brilliant, Susan S.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Assimilation of TOPEX Sea Level Measurements with a Reduced-Gravity, Shallow Water Model of the Tropical Pacific Ocean

Sea surface height variability measured by TOPEX is analyzed in the tropical Pacific Ocean by way of assimilation into a wind-driven, reduced-gravity, shallow water model using an approximate Kalman filter and smoother. The analysis results in an optimal fit of the dynamic model to the observations, providing it dynamically consistent interpolation of sea level and estimation of the circulation. Nearly 80% of the expected signal variance is accounted for by the model within 20 deg of the equator, and estimation uncertainty is substantially reduced by the voluminous observation. Notable features resolved by the analysis include seasonal changes associated with the North Equatorial Countercurrent and equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves. Significant discrepancies are also found between the estimate and TOPEX measurements, especially near the eastern boundary. Improvements in the estimate made by the assimilation are validated by comparisons with independent tide gauge and current meter observations. The employed filter and smoother are based on approximately computed estimation error covariance matrices, utilizing a spatial transformation and an symptotic approximation. The analysis demonstrates the practical utility of a quasi-optimal filter and smoother.

Fukumori, Ichiro↗