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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16

Dynamically Learning Incentives for Load Control

As electrical generation becomes more distributed and volatile, and loads become more uncertain, controllability of distributed energy resources (DERs), regardless of their ownership status, will be necessary for grid reliability. Grid operators lack direct control over end-users' grid interactions, such as energy usage, but incentives can influence behavior -- for example, an end-user that receives a grid-driven incentive may adjust their consumption or expose relevant control variables in response. A key challenge in studying such incentives is the lack of data about human behavior, which usually motivates strong assumptions, such as distributional assumptions on compliance or rational utility-maximization. In this paper, we propose a general incentive mechanism in the form of a constrained optimization problem -- our approach is distinguished from prior work by modeling human behavior (e.g., reactions to an incentive) as an arbitrary unknown function. We propose feedback-based optimization algorithms to solve this problem that each leverage different amounts of information and/or measurements. We show that each converges to an asymptotically stable incentive with (near)-optimality guarantees given mild assumptions on the problem. Finally, we evaluate our proposed techniques in voltage regulation simulations on standard test beds. We test a variety of settings, including those that break assumptions required for theoretical convergence (e.g., convexity, smoothness) to capture realistic settings. In this evaluation, our proposed algorithms are able to find near-optimal incentives even when the reaction to an incentive is modeled by a theoretically difficult (yet realistic) function.

demand response↗

Poster Abstract: Leveraging Large Language Models to Reveal Interpretable Cooling Behaviors from Smart Thermostat Data

Frequent heatwaves and hot summers increasingly challenge occupant comfort, health, and energy grid stability. Addressing these challenges requires a detailed understanding of household cooling behaviors, such as thermostat adjustments and adaptive responses to extreme conditions. Traditional analyses often rely on aggregated numerical metrics that overlook subtle but important household-specific variations. In this study, we introduce a generalizable methodology that integrates large language models (LLMs) with vision capabilities to enable scalable and detailed analysis of residential thermostat data. Using Ecobee's Donate Your Data (DYD) dataset—which provides five-minute records of indoor temperatures, thermostat setpoints, and HVAC runtimes—we focus on two U.S. cities with contrasting summer climates : Austin (TX) and Phoenix (AZ). Because raw time-series data are not well suited for direct LLM analysis, we transform them into visual representations, such as daily indoor temperature trajectories and weekly runtime histograms, to better capture behavioral variations. Leveraging LLMs' visual interpretation, we extract descriptive behavioral features, including temperature preferences, time-of-day cooling orientation, anticipatory versus reactive heatwave responses, and behavioral consistency. These semantic features support unsupervised clustering to identify distinct occupant archetypes at scale, revealing differences—such as morning-centric anticipatory coolers versus households that shift toward warmer setpoints during heatwaves—that can inform demand response, resilience planning, and health-aware interventions. By converting raw numerical data into interpretable behavioral patterns, this methodology enables scalable and practical analysis of occupant behavior, supporting actionable insights for comfort, resilience, and energy management.

Nihar, Kopal↗

A Scalable Multi-Modal Framework for High-Fidelity Distributed Human Mobility Simulations

The development of data-driven models for human mobility in urban settings requires access to substantial and diverse real-world data. However, existing historical data often presents challenges such as limited volume, variety, and veracity, as well as missing data and privacy preservation concerns. Also, urban mobility modeling is inherently time-variant, complex, and multi-modal, encompassing everything from individual walking and running to private road travel and large-scale public transportation. These challenges call for innovative solutions to overcome data limitations and compute needs to model mobility behaviors accurately. To address these challenges, we propose a distributed, co-simulation-based architecture DURMOSim that integrates real-world data with scalable, high-fidelity simulations, demonstrating distributed co-simulation feasibility with existing mobility models. DURMOSim underpins a modular integration that would enable using any available mobility simulators for greater extensibility and scalability in performing various urban scenarios. In this paper, we present the design, implementation, and performance evaluation of DURMOSim, highlighting its capability to model population-scale mobility patterns. Our initial results show its ability to dynamically synchronize multiple simulation models at runtime with negligible computational overhead. We believe DURMOSim could be a robust tool for advancing urban mobility research and intelligent transportation systems.

Yoginath, Srikanth [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000184236050)↗

Modeling hydraulic fracture opening and closure with proppant transport and settlement

Hydraulic fracturing is a widely used reservoir stimulation technique for improving fluid circulation in rock formations with extremely low permeability, particularly in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). To better understand the complex processes involved and improve hydraulic stimulation performance, we have developed ELK (ELectrical fracKing), a MOOSE-based 3D finite element application designed to model the behavior of proppant-fluid mixtures in propagating fractures. ELK integrates both the fluid and proppant components, incorporating particle-driven processes such as gravity settling, particle-particle interactions, and strong density and viscosity contracts, in addition to conventional fluid-driven fracture propagation. In this contribution, we extend ELK to model propped fracture closure, which occurs after the injection phase due to a dramatic drop in the effective stress on the fracture plane. During the shut-in, flowback, and production periods, the fracture width decreases, with the closure behavior depending on proppant concentration.. At low concentrations, closure follows a nonlinear joint law linked to the stiffness of asperities in the fracture walls. While at high concentrations, it is controlled by the properties of packed proppant bed. The extended ELK application is validated against several benchmark examples, including the propagation of an inclined frictional crack, fracture opening and sliding in response to fluid injection, and flowback analysis. We believe that ELK’s enhanced capabilities can serve as a valuable tool for the design and optimization of EGS deployment.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A multiscale cohesive law for carbon fiber networks

Better predictive models of mechanical failure in low-weight heat shield composites would aid material certification for missions with aggressive atmospheric entry conditions. In this study, we develop such a model for the rapid engineering analysis of the failure limits of phenolic impregnated carbon ablator (PICA) - a leading heat shield material whose structural component is a carbon fiber network. We hypothesize inelastic deformation failure mechanisms and model their behavior using molecular dynamics simulations to calculate the binding energy. We then upscale this binding energy to the macroscale using a renormalization argument. The approach delivers insightful and reasonably accurate macroscale predictions that compare favorably to experiments. In application, the model is validated for a particular variety of PICA by comparison to experiment and would then be used to study design scenarios in different entry conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

BAMBAM (The Behavior and Advanced Mobility Big Access Model) [SWR-25-123]

Access modeling toolkit for Rust built on the RouteE Compass energy-aware route planner. The Behavior and Advanced Mobility Big Access Model (BAMBAM) is a mobility research platform for scalable access modeling. The process begins with a grid defined at some spatial granularity (e.g., census block or 1 km grid) and a variety of travel configurations. For each grid cell and configuration, the platform executes constrained searches, uses the results to index points of interest (POI), and aggregates the findings to the grid level. It provides researchers access through R or Python running on HPC. The platform automates the import and merging of datasets from a variety of sources including data.gov (with automatic merging of Tiger/Lines geometries), OpenStreetMaps, OvertureMaps, and GTFS. It is built upon RouteE Compass, a scalable, energy-aware route planner written in Rust, extended to model multiple travel modes.

Fitzgerald, Robert [National Renewable Energy Labo↗

Experimental and modeling study of the autoignition behavior of a saturated heterocycle: Pyrrolidine

Experiments are conducted in both rapid compression machine (RCM) and shock tube (ST) to better quantify autoignition behavior (e.g., ignition delay, heat release) and understand heteroatomic effects in heterocyclic compounds, which are important reference components for the combustion of biomass-derived liquid fuels. These tests focus on the nitrogen-containing, five-membered saturated ring, pyrrolidine, at diluted conditions covering pressures of 20 and 50 bar, temperatures of 720–1450 K and a range of stoichiometries (ϕ = 0.5–2). A chemical kinetic model is developed and coupled to an existing combustion kinetics framework describing key nitrogen containing intermediates (e.g. pyrrole, ammonia and NOx). H-abstraction reactions by OH, H, CH 3 and HO 2 , are determined using ab-initio transition state theory methods, while analogies to cyclopentane are adopted for many other reactions, such as ring-opening. Here, the autoignition measurements reveal the lack of negative temperature coefficient (NTC) behavior and low-temperature chemistry for pyrrolidine, as opposed to its saturated hydrocarbon analogue, cyclopentane. Interestingly, at the lowest temperatures (T < 750 K), the reactivity of cyclopentane is greater than pyrrolidine, while at higher temperatures, pyrrolidine becomes more reactive. Agreement between the experimental measurements and the model is good, and it is found that H-abstraction reactions by HO 2 and ensuing chemistry play key roles in controlling the reactivity of this cyclic amine. Most of the fluxes, i.e., >70 %, are predicted to move through 1- or 2-pyrroline (C 4 H 7 N) and then the cyclic C 4 H 6 N radical, at both lower and higher temperatures, to form either CH 2 CHCHCHNH via ring-opening or pyrrole via β-scission. It appears that the ring opens more easily at lower temperature whereas the C–H β-scission dominates at higher temperature and lower pressure, such that the reaction of the fuel radical intermediate carrying an unpaired electron on the nitrogen atom with HO 2 is the next most notable in promoting oxidation. When comparing pyrrolidine and cyclopentane, which exhibits distinct pathways in different temperature regimes, the pyrrolidine pathways and sensitivity analysis align more closely to the high temperature case of cyclopentane where the important role of HO 2 radicals is seen to provide chain branching through HO 2 reaction with the fuel, accompanied by H 2 O 2 formation and decomposition to OH. The formation of 5-membered diene rings and ring opening reactions are also found to be highly relevant. Of particular note, it is found that there is little influence of small molecule nitrogen-chemistry, e.g., NH 2 , HCN, NO/NO 2 on the reactivity of the pyrrolidine mixtures investigated here where no recirculated combustion gases are included.

Autoignition↗

Argonne’s global critical materials agent-based model (GCMat)

Several studies have identified rare earths as critical materials. Although reasonably abundant in the Earth’s crust, rare earths typically occur in low concentrations of mined ores. Processes for recovering rare earth concentrates from these ores are complex and capital intensive. Further, lead times for deposit development, licensing, and construction are long, with reports of 10- 15 years. China is a major player in the rare earths supply chain, both in production capacity and technology innovation. In 2017, China supplied more than 80% of global rare earth oxide demand. Rare earth elements (REEs) have unique magnetic, catalytic, and phosphorescent properties that significantly improve performance of a wide range of technologies. These technologies span aerospace, energy, telecommunications, electronics, transportation, defense, and other diverse applications. Consequently, disruptions in rare earth supply can have a significant societal impact. Estimating that impact requires understanding of the dynamics across the supply chain, from rare earth oxide extraction to end use application. This report documents Argonne’s Global Critical Materials model (GCMat), first described by Riddle et al. 2015. GCMat provides capabilities to explore supply chain dynamics and uncertainty under scenarios of demand growth or shrinkage, technology adoption, supply disruptions, and trade policies and mitigation strategies of new supply sources, product substitution, consumer thrifting, and stockpiling. Supply chain participants from rare earth mining through final demand are modeled as interacting agents who make market decisions independently as time progresses. Since the version documented in Riddle et al. 2015, GCMat has been expanded to cover additional REEs, derived products and supply chains that use these REEs, and includes new agent behaviors and modeling capabilities. Section 2 provides a summary of the GCMat model design, including the structure of the model and key assumptions, section 3 summarizes methods used for model calibration and sensitivity analysis, and section 4 provides examples of model results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Kinetics of HCP-BCC Phase Transition Boundary in Magnesium at High Pressure

Under high pressures, many crystalline metals undergo solid–solid phase transformations. In order to accurately model the behavior of materials under extreme loading conditions, it is essential to understand the kinetics of phase transition. Using molecular dynamics simulations, this work demonstrates the feasibility of characterizing the speeds of a moving phase boundary using atomistic simulations employing a suitable empirical potential for single-crystal magnesium. The model can provide temperature- and tensorial stress-dependent velocity of a moving phase boundary as a rate-limiting contribution to the kinetics of phase transformation in continuum codes. Results demonstrate that a nonlinear interaction exists between plasticity and phase transition, facilitating a jump in the velocity of a moving phase boundary, facilitated by activated plastic deformation mechanisms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Microstructure Validation of Graph Theory Model-Derived Cooling Rates in the Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing of ER70S-6 Steel

Wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) enables high-rate fabrication of large metallic components, but spatial variations in thermal history can lead to microstructural heterogeneity that requires efficient process models to evaluate. This study evaluates whether cooling rates extracted from a graph theory model (GTM)-based thermal simulation are consistent with the microstructural evolution observed in an ER70S-6 WAAM wall. Thermal histories from the model were analyzed at selected build heights, and cooling rates were extracted from the final thermal excursion through the austenite phase field. Microstructures at corresponding locations were characterized using electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) to quantify grain size distributions, and pearlite interlamellar spacing was used as an additional indicator of cooling behavior. The modeled cooling rates were highest near the substrate and generally decreased with build height, consistent with the observed reduction in the fine grain fraction and the progressive shift in the grain size distribution as build height increased. Pearlite spacing trends also supported the modeled cooling rate variation. These results indicate that GTM-derived thermal histories can be post-processed into metallurgically meaningful cooling rate estimates for WAAM steel builds and linked to dataset specific empirical grain size distribution relationships for process–thermal history–microstructure assessment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A New Reduced Order Model For The Mechanistic Creep Behavior Of UO 2

This manuscript describes an ongoing NEAMS effort to better determine the performance of advanced nuclear fuels, in particular the creep behavior of doped UO$_2$ for light water reactors. In our previous work, we outlined a method to utilize data generated from lower length scale simulations and implement it into the engineering scale fuel performance analysis. This process has been further refined, and in addition, new data has been used to train the surrogate model which has also been substantially improved since the previous iteration. The new model is compared against the current empirical model used in BISON using both scoping calculations to define the performance over the parameter space and using integral instrumented fuel assessment cases to determine the impact of these models on the overall fuel performance. Suggestions and guidance for future improvements to this method are provided to ensure the model covers relevant parameter space and phenomena.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DS-TIDE: Harnessing Dynamical Systems for Efficient Time-Independent Differential Equation Solving

Time-Independent Differential Equations (TIDEs) are central to modeling equilibrium behavior across a wide range of scientific and engineering domains, from electrostatics to porous media flow. Conventional numerical solvers offer reliable solutions but incur significant computational costs due to fine-grained discretization and iterative procedures. Machine learning-based approaches address this by replacing iterative solving processes with one-time inference; however, their sophisticated models require extensive training resources that often exceed those of traditional solvers. Consequently, designing a TIDE solver that achieves high accuracy, broad applicability, and exceptional computational efficiency remains a fundamental challenge. In this paper, we propose DS-TIDE, a novel hardware solver that is inspired by, and subsequently leverages, the intrinsic connection between Dynamical Systems (DS) and Differential Equations (DEs) to efficiently and accurately solve TIDEs. DS-TIDE employs a CMOS-compatible DS-based processor, whose physical states evolve under carefully designed DE-driven dynamics and naturally converge to equilibrium -- the solution of the target TIDE -- within ~1µs on a ~1-watt DS-TIDE processor. To enhance expressivity, DS-TIDE incorporates Heterogeneous Dynamics with Temporal Layering (HDTL), which solves TIDEs through a three-stage DS evolution -- conditioning, solving, and decoding -- each governed by specialized dynamics. The entire evolution process is analogous to an infinitely deep neural network temporally unrolled, offering the system the capability of representing complex equations. Furthermore, DS-TIDE is equipped with an on-device DS-DE Auto-Alignment mechanism that dynamically adapts intrinsic hardware dynamics within milliseconds, effectively aligning the system’s dynamics to diverse target DEs. Experimental results across TIDEs from a wide range of scientific and engineering domains demonstrate that DS-TIDE achieves ~10^3× speedup, ~10^5× energy savings, and competitive or superior accuracy compared to state-of-the-art numerical and ML-based solvers.

Liu, Chuan↗

Advancements in modeling fuel pulverization and cladding behavior during a LOCA

During a loss of coolant accident (LOCA), there is the possibility of nuclear fuel rods to undergo a three step process known as fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). The chance of FFRD occurring increases as the fuel burnup increases. To support the nuclear industry's desire to increase the discharge burnup of nuclear fuels in light water reactors (LWRs) it is imperative to understand the mechanisms driving the evolution of FFRD. In this work, a multiscale modeling modeling approach is used to garner insight into underlying mechanisms leading to the ne fragmentation (also known as pulverization) of nuclear fuel during a LOCA. This report includes a summary of the atomistic and phase-field studies to develop a new pulverization criterion for use in the engineering scale Bison fuel performance code. Details are also provided on cladding modeling improvements related to hydrogen/hydride embrittlement and damage, and anisotropic thermal creep. The new models are used on the existing integral and separate effects LOCA validation cases available in Bison.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Advancements in modeling fuel pulverization and cladding behavior during a LOCA

During a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA), it is possible for nuclear fuel rods to undergo a three-step process known as fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). The chance of FFRD occurring increases as the fuel burnup increases. To support the nuclear industry's desire to increase the discharge burnup of nuclear fuels in light-water reactors (LWRs), it is imperative to understand the mechanisms driving the evolution of FFRD. In this work, a multiscale modeling approach is used to garner insight into underlying mechanisms leading to the fine fragmentation (also known as pulverization) of nuclear fuel during a LOCA. This report includes a summary of the atomistic and phase-field studies to develop a new pulverization criterion for use in the engineering-scale Bison fuel performance code. Details are also provided on cladding model improvements related to hydrogen/hydride embrittlement and damage and anisotropic thermal creep. The new models are used on the existing integral and separate effects LOCA validation cases available in Bison.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Toward efficient elastocaloric systems: Predicting material thermal properties with high fidelity

A critical need to accurately model thermal behaviors of materials that exhibit strong elastocaloric effects, including predicting the effects themselves at varying stresses and temperatures, has been addressed using a simple and versatile physics-based approach. The key factor leading to the high precision is approximating the underlying elastic phase transition as a smooth modification of lattice entropy between coexisting phases. Once the phase transformation entropy is modeled to match experimentally measured strain as a function of temperature and applied stress, estimating the heat capacity, entropy, and isothermal entropy and adiabatic temperature changes in temperature-stress coordinates becomes straightforward. This approach provides insight into how thermal properties of elastocaloric materials vary through the transition based on strain measurements that are simple to perform and interpret. In addition to aiding in the rapid evaluation of new and existing elastocaloric materials, this advance is expected to prove invaluable for accurate heat transfer modeling aimed at designing efficient regenerative elastocaloric cooling devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Inferring the temperature profile of the radiative shock in the COAX experiment with shock radiography, Dante, and spectral temperature diagnostics

Predicting and modeling the behavior of experiments with radiation waves propagating through low-density foams require a detailed quantification of the numerous uncertainties present. In regimes where a prominent radiative shock is produced, key dynamical features include the shock position, temperature, and curvature and the spatial distribution and temperature of the corresponding supersonic radiation wave. The COAX experimental platform is designed to constrain numerical models of such a radiative shock propagating through a low-density foam by employing radiography for spatial and shock information, Dante for characterizing the x-ray flux from the indirectly driven target, and a novel spectral diagnostic designed to probe the temperature profile of the wave. In this work, we model COAX with parameterized 2D simulations and a Hohlraum-laser modeling package to study uncertainties in diagnosing the experiment. The inferred temperature profile of the COAX radiation transport experiments has been shown to differ from simulations more than expected from drive uncertainties that have been constrained by simultaneous soft x-ray flux and radiography measurements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The effects of dose, dose rate, and irradiation type and their equivalence on radiation-induced segregation in binary alloy systems via phase-field simulations

Radiation-induced segregation is a phenomenon commonly observed in many alloys which consists of the redistribution of elements (solute or interstitial impurities) under irradiation. The onset and development of radiation-induced segregation can only occur when a sufficient flux of defects is sustained and defect sinks are present. Irradiation dose, dose rate, and particle types all affect defect flux. In this work, we employ a phase-field model to examine the effects of dose, dose rate, and type of incident particles on radiation-induced segregation behavior in a model binary alloy. The phase-field model takes into account the formation and evolution of point defects as well as defect clusters, the diffusion and clustering of alloy species, the presence of additional extrinsic defect sinks in the form of dislocations, and two different methods of radiation-damage insertion, which are intended to simulate either light-ion/electron irradiation via Frenkel pairs or heavy-ion irradiation in the form of cascades. Our results show a dose-rate and particle-type dependence on the amount of solute segregation. We show that the material systems exposed to higher dose rates are less subjected to solute segregation at equivalent doses. We also show that such dose-rate-dependence behavior is due to a delay of the incubation dose at which radiation-induced segregation effectively starts. Particle type and the presence of dislocations can accentuate this behavior. Our model predictions correlate with many experimental observations made over the years on radiation-induced segregation providing credence to the simulation results. The methodology presented in this study allows for a first-order prediction of the dose rate at which proxy irradiation experiments could be performed to approximate radiation-induced segregation behaviors seen in targeted irradiation conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Siamese CNN + KNN-Based Classification Framework for Non-intrusive Load Monitoring

Through the development of smart grids, programs such as demand side response, have been presented as auxiliary services to the real-time operation of distributed networks. In order to provide consumers information on their energy consumption, so that a modulation in consumption is possible, non-intrusive load monitoring has been introduced as an solution to this pattern recognition problem. Non-intrusive load monitoring enables the modeling of electrical loads connected to the low-voltage system, considering only a single measurement point. Presented state-of-the-art solutions though, consider availability of data as well as representation of all possible classes of the environment. This is of course a most conservative hypothesis, since in real-life applications availability of such data is much difficult, as well as the dynamic behavior of models is implicitly evolving in time. Here, a framework that uses neural Siamese networks with k-nearest neighbor clustering is presented toward non-intrusive load monitoring. Online learning feature is implemented, which relaxes the hypothesis of data requirements as well addresses the evolving nature of load profile. k-nearest clustering allows nonlinear characteristic space modelling. Test results using synthetics and real-life data show that the solution, besides obtaining a good generalizability in the classification, also obtained results with an accuracy of 95.77%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗