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Global Carbon Budget 2019

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E(FF)) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (E(LUC)), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S(OCEAN)) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S(LAND)) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B(IM)), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), E(FF) was 9.5±0.5 GtC/yr, E(LUC) 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, G(ATM) 4.9±0.02 GtC/yr (2.3±0.01 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) 2.5±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) 3.2±0.6 GtC/yr, with a budget imbalance B(IM) of 0.4 GtC/yr indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in E(FF) was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC/yr, reaching 10 GtC/yr for the first time in history, E(LUC) was 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC/yr (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, G(ATM) was 5.1±0.2 GtC/yr (2.4±0.1 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) was 2.6±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) was 3.5±0.7 GtC/yr, with a B(IM) of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in E(FF) of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC/yr persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).

global carbon budget 2019↗

The Discovery of an Asymmetric Detached Shell Around the “fresh” Carbon AGB Star TX Psc

We present ALMA observations of the circumstellar envelope around the AGB carbon star TX Psc in molecular CO(2–1) emission, and detect a previously unknown detached shell with filamentary structure and elliptical shape. Up to now, all observed detached shells are found around carbon AGB stars and are of remarkable spherical symmetry. The elliptical shell around TX Psc is the first clear exception to that rule, with TX Psc being classified as rather ”fresh” carbon star, that most likely has only experienced very few thermal pulses yet. We investigate and discuss the 3D structure of the CSE and its most likely formation scenarios, as well as the link of this peculiar detached shell to the AGB evolutionary status of TX Psc.

M. Brunner↗

Carbon distribution profiles in lunar fines

Radial distribution profiles of elemental carbon in lunar soils consisting of particles in the size range of 50 to 150 microns were investigated. Initial experiments on specimen preparation and the analysis of prepared specimens by Auger electron spectrometry (AES) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) are described. Results from splits of samples 61501,84 and 64421,11, which were mounted various ways in several specimen holders, are presented. A low carbon content was observed in AES spectra from soil particles that were subjected to sputter-ion cleaning with 960eV argon ions for periods of time up to a total exposure for one hour. This ion charge was sufficient to remove approximately 70 nm of material from the surface. All of the physically adsorbed carbon (as well as water vapor, etc.) would normally be removed in the first few minutes, leaving only carbon in the specimen, and metal support structure, to be detected thereafter.

Hart, R. K.↗

Amino acids of the Murchison meteorite. II - Five carbon acyclic primary beta-, gamma-, and delta-amino alkanoic acids

The five-carbon acyclic primary beta, gamma, and delta amino alkanoic acids of the Murchison meteorite are studied using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and ion exchange chromatography. The chromatograms reveal that alpha is the most abundant monoamino alkanoic acid followed by gamma and beta, and an exponential increase in the amount of amino acid is observed as the carbon number increases in the homologous series. The influence of frictional heating, spontaneous thermal decomposition, and radiation of the synthesis of amino acids is examined. The data obtained support an amino acid synthesis process involving random combination of single-carbon precursors.

Cronin, J. R.↗

How emissions uncertainty influences the distribution and radiative impacts of smoke from fires in North America

Fires and the aerosols that they emit impact air quality, health, and climate, but the abundance and properties of carbonaceous aerosol (both black carbon and organic carbon) from biomass burning (BB) remain uncertain and poorly constrained. We aim to explore the uncertainties associated with fire emissions and their air quality and radiative impacts from underlying dry matter consumed and emissions factors. To investigate this, we compare model simulations from a global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, driven by a variety of fire emission inventories with surface and airborne observations of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) concentrations and satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD). We focus on two fire-detection-based and/or burned-area-based (FD-BA) inventories using burned area and active fire counts, respectively, i.e., the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 (GFED4s) with small fires and the Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.5 (FINN1.5), and two fire radiative power (FRP)-based approaches, i.e., the Quick Fire Emission Dataset version 2.4 (QFED2.4) and the Global Fire Assimilation System version 1.2 (GFAS1.2). We show that, across the inventories, emissions of BB aerosol (BBA) differ by a factor of 4 to 7 over North America and that dry matter differences, not emissions factors, drive this spread. We find that simulations driven by QFED2.4 generally overestimate BC and, to a lesser extent, OA concentrations observations from two fire-influenced aircraft campaigns in North America (ARCTAS and DC3) and from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network, while simulations driven by FINN1.5 substantially underestimate concentrations. The GFED4s and GFAS1.2-driven simulations provide the best agreement with OA and BC mass concentrations at the surface (IMPROVE), BC observed aloft (DC3 and ARCTAS), and AOD observed by MODIS over North America. We also show that a sensitivity simulation including an enhanced source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from fires, based on the NOAA Fire Lab 2016 experiments, produces substantial additional OA; however, the spread in the primary emissions estimates implies that this magnitude of SOA can be neither confirmed nor ruled out when comparing the simulations against the observations explored here. Given the substantial uncertainty in fire emissions, as represented by these four emission inventories, we find a sizeable range in 2012 annual BBA PM2.5 population-weighted exposure over Canada and the contiguous US (0.5 to 1.6 µg/cu. m). We also show that the range in the estimated global direct radiative effect of carbonaceous aerosol from fires (−0.11 to −0.048 W/sq. m) is large and comparable to the direct radiative forcing of OA (−0.09 W/sq. m) estimated in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our analysis suggests that fire emissions uncertainty challenges our ability to accurately characterize the impact of smoke on air quality and climate.

North America↗

The Climatology of Carbon Monoxide and Water Vapor on Mars as Observed by CRISM and Modeled by the GEM-Mars General Circulation Model

Radiative transfer modeling of near-infrared spectra taken by the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) instrument onboard Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) enables the column-integrated abundance of carbon monoxide (CO) and water vapor (H 2 O) to be retrieved. These results provide a detailed global description of the seasonal and spatial distribution of CO in the Mars atmosphere and new information about the interannual variability of H2O. The CRISM retrievals show the seasonally and globally averaged carbon monoxide mixing ratio to be near 800 parts per million, but with strong seasonal variations, especially at high latitudes. At low latitudes, the carbon monoxide mixing ratio varies in response to the mean seasonal cycle of surface pressure and shows little variation with topography. At high latitudes, carbon monoxide is depleted in the summer hemisphere by a factor of two or more, while in the winter hemisphere there is relatively higher mixing ratio in regions with low-lying topography. Water vapor shows only modest interannual variations, with the largest observed difference being unusually dry conditions in the wake of the Mars Year 28 global dust storm. Modeling results from the GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale) - Mars general circulation model generally reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial trends and provide insight into the underlying physical processes.

Smith, Michael D.↗

Comets as a possible source of prebiotic molecules

Prebiotic molecules derive from abiotic organic molecules, radicals, and ions that pervade the universe at temperatures as high as several 1000 K. Here we review the role of organic molecules that condensed at low temperatures before or during comet formation in the early history of the Solar System. Recent spacecraft encounters and ground-based observations of carbon-rich volatile and dust components of comet comae provide a broad database for the investigation of these organic molecules. New laboratory data for some potential cometary organics are presented. Probable icy organic constituents of the nucleus and CHON particles as likely candidates for the distributed sources of gas-phase organic species in the coma are discussed. There is broad agreement that many organic molecules observed in the coma originate from the dust that must have existed in the solar nebula at the time and place of comet formation. We conclude that complex organic molecules found in comets may be a source of prebiotic molecules that led to the origins of life.

Huebner, W. F.↗

Observations of CO in the stratosphere of Venus via its J = 0 - 1 rotational transition

Carbon monoxide has been observed in the stratosphere of Venus at phase angles of 180 and 120 deg via the J = 0 - 1 rotational transition at 115.2712 GHz. The mixing ratio profile of CO has been obtained by fitting the theoretical spectrum produced by a small number of layers with constant CO mixing ratio to the line profile, and the results suggest that the CO mixing ratio below the 1-mb level increased by at least a factor of 10 between 180 and 120 deg phase angles. The depletion of CO on the nightside of the planet was not anticipated and may require either a new loss mechanism for CO which can operate without sunlight or an increase in the amount of vertical mixing on the nightside.

Schloerb, F. P.↗

A large carbon monoxide cloud in Orion

Carbon monoxide line emission was observed at a wavelength of 2.6 mm in an area of L1630, a diffuse dark nebula forming a bridge between NGC 2024 and the reflection nebula NGC 2068. The absence of a 21-cm counterpart to this region of high visual extinction suggests that L1630 is predominantly molecular hydrogen. The molecular hydrogen mass, estimated from the carbon monoxide observations, is found to comprise a significant fraction of the total mass of stars and gas within the boundaries of I Ori association.

Tucker, K. D.↗

Absorption Properties of Mediterranean Aerosols Obtained from Multi-year Ground-based and Satellite Remote Sensing Observations

Aerosol absorption properties are of high importance to assess aerosol impact on regional climate. This study presents an analysis of aerosol absorption products obtained over the Mediterranean Basin or land stations in the region from multi-year ground-based AERONET and satellite observations with a focus on the Absorbing Aerosol Optical Depth (AAOD), Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) and their spectral dependence. The AAOD and Absorption Angstrom Exponent (AAE) data set is composed of daily averaged AERONET level 2 data from a total of 22 Mediterranean stations having long time series, mainly under the influence of urban-industrial aerosols and/or soil dust. This data set covers the 17 yr period 1996-2012 with most data being from 2003-2011 (approximately 89 percent of level-2 AAOD data). Since AERONET level-2 absorption products require a high aerosol load (AOD at 440 nm greater than 0.4), which is most often related to the presence of desert dust, we also consider level-1.5 SSA data, despite their higher uncertainty, and filter out data with an Angstrom exponent less than 1.0 in order to study absorption by carbonaceous aerosols. The SSA data set includes both AERONET level-2 and satellite level-3 products. Satellite-derived SSA data considered are monthly level 3 products mapped at the regional scale for the spring and summer seasons that exhibit the largest aerosol loads. The satellite SSA dataset includes the following products: (i) Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) over 2000-2011, (ii) Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) near-UV algorithm over 2004-2010, and (iii) MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep-Blue algorithm over 2005-2011, derived only over land in dusty conditions. Sun-photometer observations show that values of AAOD at 440 nm vary between 0.024 +/- 0.01 (resp. 0.040 +/- 0.01) and 0.050 +/- 0.01 (0.055 +/- 0.01) for urban (dusty) sites. Analysis shows that the Mediterranean urban-industrial aerosols appear "moderately" absorbing with values of SSA close to approximately 0.94-0.95 +/- 0.04 (at 440 nm) in most cases except over the large cities of Rome and Athens, where aerosol appears more absorbing (SSA approximately 0.89-0.90 +/- 0.04). The aerosol Absorption Angstrom Exponent (AAE, estimated using 440 and 870 nm) is found to be larger than 1 for most sites over the Mediterranean, a manifestation of mineral dust (iron) and/or brown carbon producing the observed absorption. AERONET level-2 sun-photometer data indicate the existence of a moderate East-West gradient, with higher values over the eastern basin (AAEEast. = 1.39/AAEWest. = 1.33) due to the influence of desert dust. The North-South AAE gradient is more pronounced, especially over the western basin. Our additional analysis of AERONET level-1.5 data also shows that organic absorbing aerosols significantly affect some Mediterranean sites. These results indicate that current climate models treating organics as nonabsorbing over the Mediterranean certainly underestimate the warming effect due to carbonaceous aerosols. A~comparative analysis of the regional SSA variability has been attempted using satellite data. OMI and MODIS data show an absorbing zone (SSA approximately 0.90 at 470-500 nm) over Northeastern Africa that does not appear in the MISR retrievals. In contrast, MISR seems able to observe the East-West SSA gradient during summer, as also detected by AERONET. Also, the analysis of SSA provided by satellites indicates that the aerosol over the Mediterranean Sea appears less absorbing during spring (MAM) than summer (JJA).

satellite remote sensing observations↗

Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index into the Noah-MP Land Surface Model: Impacts on Water and Carbon Fluxes and States over the Continental U.S.

Accurate representation of vegetation states is required for the modeling of terrestrial water-energy-carbon exchanges and the characterization of the impacts of natural and anthropogenic vegetation changes on the land surface. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of the impact of assimilating remote sensing-based Leaf Area Index (LAI) retrievals over the Continental U.S. in the Noah-MP land surface model, during a time period of 2000 to 2017. The results demonstrate that the assimilation has a beneficial impact on the simulation of key water budget terms such as soil moisture, evapotranspiration, snow depth, terrestrial water storage and streamflow, when compared with a large suite of reference datasets. In addition, the assimilation of LAI is also found to improve the carbon fluxes of Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE). Most prominent improvements in the water and carbon variables are observed over the agricultural areas of the U.S., where assimilation improves the representation of vegetation seasonality impacted by cropping schedules. The systematic, added improvements from assimilation in a configuration that employs high quality boundary conditions highlight the significant utility of LAI data assimilation in capturing the impacts of vegetation changes.

anthropogenic vegetation↗

Effects of Temperature on Polymer/Carbon Chemical Sensors

Experiments were conducted on the effects of temperature, polymer molecular weight, and carbon loading on the electrical resistances of polymer/carbon-black composite films. The experiment were performed in a continuing effort to develop such films as part of the JPL Electronic Nose (ENose), that would be used to detect, identify, and quantify parts-per-million (ppm) concentration levels of airborne chemicals in the space shuttle/space station environments. The polymers used in this study were three formulations of poly(ethylene oxide) [PEO] that had molecular weights of 20 kilodaltons, 600 kilodaltons, and 1 megadalton, respectively. The results of one set of experiments showed a correlation between the polymer molecular weight and the percolation threshold. In a second set of experiments, differences among the temperature dependences of resistance were observed for different carbon loadings; these differences could be explained by a change in the conduction mechanism. In a third set of experiments, the responses of six different polymer/carbon composite sensors to three analytes (water vapor, methanol, methane) were measured as a function of temperature (28 to 36 C). For a given concentration of each analyte, the response of each sensor decreased with increasing temperature, in a manner different from those of the other sensors.

Manfireda, Allison↗

Gas-Grain Models for Interstellar Anion Chemistry

Long-chain hydrocarbon anions C(sub n) H(-) (n = 4, 6, 8) have recently been found to be abundant in a variety of interstellar clouds. In order to explain their large abundances in the denser (prestellar/protostellar) environments, new chemical models are constructed that include gas-grain interactions. Models including accretion of gas-phase species onto dust grains and cosmic-ray-induced desorption of atoms are able to reproduce the observed anion-to-neutral ratios, as well as the absolute abundances of anionic and neutral carbon chains, with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Due to their destructive effects, the depletion of oxygen atoms onto dust results in substantially greater polyyne and anion abundances in high-density gas (with n(sub H2) approx > / cubic cm). The large abundances of carbon-chain-bearing species observed in the envelopes of protostars such as L1527 can thus be explained without the need for warm carbon-chain chemistry. The C6H(-) anion-to-neutral ratio is found to be most sensitive to the atomic O and H abundances and the electron density. Therefore, as a core evolves, falling atomic abundances and rising electron densities are found to result in increasing anion-to-neutral ratios. Inclusion of cosmic-ray desorption of atoms in high-density models delays freeze-out, which results in a more temporally stable anion-to-neutral ratio, in better agreement with observations. Our models include reactions between oxygen atoms and carbon-chain anions to produce carbon-chain-oxide species C6O, C7O, HC6O, and HC7O, the abundances of which depend on the assumed branching ratios for associative electron detachment

Cordiner, M. A.↗

Shock induced reaction in Chicxulub target materials (CaSO4 and SiO2) and their relation to extinctions

The global platinum element rich layer, the presence of shocked quartz grains (in some cases with stishovite), and the observation of a tektite-rich layer, precisely at the K-T boundary, are the three major arguments for the extinction bolide impact hypothesis of Alvarez et al. Tektites (spherules) from Beloc in Haiti and Mimbral in Mexico received particular interest because of their geological proximity to the Chicxulub impact structure, which is a leading candidate for at least one of the K-T impact craters. Although in most localities the original glass has weathered to clay minerals, some shock-induced glass is found in outcrops and drill cores which is used for Ar-38/Ar-39 dating. The glassy tektites were found to be chemically similar and coeval at 65.0 Ma with Chicxulub melt rock. Two kinds of K-T spherules were discovered: (1) a silic black glass; and (2) a yellow glass, enriched in Ca, Mg, and S. The high sulfur content of the glass and the abundance of anhydrite (CaSO4) in the carbonate-evaporite sequence observed in Drill Holes Y-1 and Y-2 at Chicxulub prompted studies of calcium sulfate devolatization. Further discussion of our experiments is presented.

Chen, Guangqing↗

Production of carbon, sulfur, and CS in Comet West

Results from ultraviolet spectrographic observations of Comet West (1975n) in the 1620-3960 A wavelength range are presented. Objective grating imagery of the comet reveals for the first time emission from sulfur atoms and CS molecules as well as previously observed lines or bands in carbon atoms and CO(+), CO2(+) and OH molecules. Some evidence exists for emission in the C2 Mulliken bands and in the CO Cameron bands. On the basis of the observations, production rates of C (ground state), C(1D), S, and CS are inferred to be 3.8 x 10 to the 29th per sec, 4.4 x 10 to the 29th per sec, 1.7 x 10 to the 28th per sec, and greater than approximately 3.1 x 10 to the 27th per sec, respectively.

Smith, A. M.↗