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NASA NTRS2014

Solar Spectral Irradiance Changes During Cycle 24

We use solar spectra obtained by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite to detect and follow long-term (years) and short-term (weeks) changes in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the 265-500 nm spectral range. During solar Cycle 24, in the relatively line-free regions the SSI changed by approximately 0.6% +/- 0.2% around 265 nm. These changes gradually diminish to 0.15% +/- 0.20% at 500 nm. All strong spectral lines and blends, with the notable exception of the upper Balmer lines, vary in unison with the solar "continuum." Besides the lines with strong chromospheric components, the most involved species include Fe I blends and all prominent CH, NH, and CN spectral bands. Following the general trend seen in the solar "continuum," the variability of spectral lines also decreases toward longer wavelengths. The long-term solar cycle SSI changes are closely, to within the quoted 0.1%-0.2% uncertainties, matched by the appropriately adjusted short-term SSI variations derived from the 27 day rotational modulation cycles. This further strengthens and broadens the prevailing notion about the general scalability of the UV SSI variability to the emissivity changes in the Mg II 280 nm doublet on timescales from weeks to years. We also detect subtle deviations from this general rule: the prominent spectral lines and blends at lambda approximately or greater than 350 nm show slightly more pronounced 27 day SSI changes when compared to the long-term (years) trends. We merge the solar data from Cycle 21 with the current Cycle 24 OMI and GOME-2 observations and provide normalized SSI variations for the 170-795 nm spectral region.

Aura OMI↗

NASA NTRS2014

Challenges in Evaluating Relationships Between Quantitative Data (Carbon Dioxide) and Qualitative Data (Self-Reported Visual Changes)

Understanding the nuances in clinical data is critical in developing a successful data analysis plan. Carbon dioxide (CO2) data are collected on board the International Space Station (ISS) in a continuous stream. Clinical data on ISS are primarily collected via conversations between individual crewmembers and NASA Flight Surgeons during weekly Private Medical Conferences (PMC). Law, et.al, 20141 demonstrated a statistically significant association between weekly average CO2 levels on ISS and self-reported headaches over the reporting period from March 14, 2001 to May 31, 2012. The purpose of this analysis is to describe the evaluation of a possible association between visual changes and CO2 levels on ISS and to discuss challenges in developing an appropriate analysis plan. METHODS & PRELIMINARY RESULTS: A first analysis was conducted following the same study design as the published work on CO2 and self-reported headaches1; substituting self-reported changes in visual acuity in place of self-reported headaches. The analysis demonstrated no statistically significant association between visual impairment characterized by vision symptoms self-reported during PMCs and ISS average CO2 levels over ISS missions. Closer review of the PMC records showed that vision outcomes are not well-documented in terms of clinical severity, timing of onset, or timing of resolution, perhaps due to the incipient nature of vision changes. Vision has been monitored in ISS crewmembers, pre- and post-flight, using standard optometry evaluations. In-flight visual assessments were limited early in the ISS program, primarily consisting of self-perceived changes reported by crewmembers. Recently, on-orbit capabilities have greatly improved. Vision data ranges from self-reported post-flight changes in visual acuity, pre- to postflight changes identified during fundoscopic examination, and in-flight progression measured by advanced on-orbit clinical imaging capabilities at predetermined testing intervals. In contrast, CO2 data are recorded in a continuous stream over time; however, for the initial analysis this data was categorized into weekly averages.

Mendez, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Long-Term Changes in Lower Tropospheric Baseline Ozone Concentrations:

Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northernmidlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by approximately 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only approximately 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture approximately 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NO(sub x), an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.

atmospheric composition↗

NASA NTRS2014

Development and Preliminary Testing of a High Precision Long Stroke Slit Change Mechanism for the SPICE Instrument

In the frame of ESA's Solar Orbiter scientific mission, Almatech has been selected to design, develop and test the Slit Change Mechanism of the SPICE (SPectral Imaging of the Coronal Environment) instrument. In order to guaranty optical cleanliness level while fulfilling stringent positioning accuracies and repeatability requirements for slit positioning in the optical path of the instrument, a linear guiding system based on a double flexible blade arrangement has been selected. The four different slits to be used for the SPICE instrument resulted in a total stroke of 16.5 mm in this linear slit changer arrangement. The combination of long stroke and high precision positioning requirements has been identified as the main design challenge to be validated through breadboard models testing. This paper presents the development of SPICE's Slit Change Mechanism (SCM) and the two-step validation tests successfully performed on breadboard models of its flexible blade support system. The validation test results have demonstrated the full adequacy of the flexible blade guiding system implemented in SPICE's Slit Change Mechanism in a stand-alone configuration. Further breadboard test results, studying the influence of the compliant connection to the SCM linear actuator on an enhanced flexible guiding system design have shown significant enhancements in the positioning accuracy and repeatability of the selected flexible guiding system. Preliminary evaluation of the linear actuator design, including a detailed tolerance analyses, has shown the suitability of this satellite roller screw based mechanism for the actuation of the tested flexible guiding system and compliant connection. The presented development and preliminary testing of the high-precision long-stroke Slit Change Mechanism for the SPICE Instrument are considered fully successful such that future tests considering the full Slit Change Mechanism can be performed, with the gained confidence, directly on a Qualification Model. The selected linear Slit Change Mechanism design concept, consisting of a flexible guiding system driven by a hermetically sealed linear drive mechanism, is considered validated for the specific application of the SPICE instrument, with great potential for other special applications where contamination and high precision positioning are dominant design drivers.

Paciotti, Gabriel↗

NASA NTRS2012

Obtaining Accurate Change Detection Results from High-Resolution Satellite Sensors

Multi-date acquisitions of high-resolution imaging satellites (e.g. GeoEye and WorldView), can display local changes of current economic interest. However, their large data volume precludes effective manual analysis, requiring image co-registration followed by image-to-image change detection, preferably with minimal analyst attention. We have recently developed an automatic change detection procedure that minimizes false-positives. The processing steps include: (a) Conversion of both the pre- and post- images to reflectance values (this step is of critical importance when different sensors are involved); reflectance values can be either top-of-atmosphere units or have full aerosol optical depth calibration applied using bi-directional reflectance knowledge. (b) Panchromatic band image-to-image co-registration, using an orthorectified base reference image (e.g. Digital Orthophoto Quadrangle) and a digital elevation model; this step can be improved if a stereo-pair of images have been acquired on one of the image dates. (c) Pan-sharpening of the multispectral data to assure recognition of change objects at the highest resolution. (d) Characterization of multispectral data in the post-image ( i.e. the background) using unsupervised cluster analysis. (e) Band ratio selection in the post-image to separate surface materials of interest from the background. (f) Preparing a pre-to-post change image. (g) Identifying locations where change has occurred involving materials of interest.

multispectral↗

NASA NTRS2015

Deriving Scaling Factors Using a Global Hydrological Model to Restore GRACE Total Water Storage Changes for China's Yangtze River Basin

This study used a global hydrological model (GHM), PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface water storage changes, natural and human induced groundwater storage changes, and the interactions between surface water and subsurface water, to generate scaling factors by mimicking low-pass filtering of GRACE signals. Signal losses in GRACE data were subsequently restored by the scaling factors from PCR-GLOBWB. Results indicate greater spatial heterogeneity in scaling factor from PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0 than that from GLDAS-1 Noah due to comprehensive simulation of surface and subsurface water storage changes for PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0. Filtered GRACE total water storage (TWS) changes applied with PCR-GLOBWB scaling factors show closer agreement with water budget estimates of TWS changes than those with scaling factors from other land surface models (LSMs) in China's Yangtze River basin. Results of this study develop a further understanding of the behavior of scaling factors from different LSMs or GHMs over hydrologically complex basins, and could be valuable in providing more accurate TWS changes for hydrological applications (e.g., monitoring drought and groundwater storage depletion) over regions where human-induced interactions between surface water and subsurface water are intensive.

water↗

NASA NTRS2017

Drivers of Precipitation Change: An Energetic Understanding

The response of the hydrological cycle to climate forcings can be understood within the atmospheric energy budget framework. In this study precipitation and energy budget responses to five forcing agents are analyzed using 10 climate models from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Precipitation changes are split into a forcing-dependent fast response and a temperature-driven hydrological sensitivity. Globally, when normalized by top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing, fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to strongly absorbing drivers (CO2, black carbon). However, over land fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to weakly absorbing drivers (sulfate, solar) and are linked to rapid circulation changes. Despite this, land-mean fast responses to CO2 and black carbon exhibit more intermodel spread. Globally, the hydrological sensitivity is consistent across forcings, mainly associated with increased longwave cooling, which is highly correlated with intermodel spread. The land-mean hydrological sensitivity is weaker, consistent with limited moisture availability. The PDRMIP results are used to construct a simple model for land-mean and sea-mean precipitation change based on sea surface temperature change and TOA forcing. The model matches well with CMIP5 ensemble mean historical and future projections, and is used to understand the contributions of different drivers. During the twentieth century, temperature-driven intensification of land-mean precipitation has been masked by fast precipitation responses to anthropogenic sulfate and volcanic forcing, consistent with the small observed trend. However, as projected sulfate forcing decreases, and warming continues, land-mean precipitation is expected to increase more rapidly, and may become clearly observable by the mid-twenty-first century.

Richardson, T. B.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Challenges, Opportunities, and AgMIP Frameworks for Foresight

Agricultural systems are currently undergoing rapid shifts owing to socioeconomic development, technological change, population growth, economic opportunity, evolving demand for commodities, and the need for sustainability amid global environmental change. It is not sufficient to maintain current harvest levels; rather, there is a need to rapidly increase production in light of a population growing to nearly 10 billion by mid-century and to more than 11 billion by 2100 (FAO, 2016; UN, 2016; Popkin et al., 2012). Current and future agricultural systems are additionally burdened by human-caused climate change, the result of accumulating greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, ecological destruction, and land use changes that have altered the chemical composition of Earth’s atmosphere and trapped energy in the Earth system (IPCC, 2013; Porter et al., 2014). This increased energy has already raised average surface temperatures by approximately 1 degree Centigrade (GISTEMP Team, 2017; Hansen et al., 2010), leading early on to the term “global warming,” but this phenomenon is now more accurately referred to as “climate change” because it also modifies atmospheric circulation, adjusts regional and seasonal precipitation patterns, and shifts the distribution and characteristics of extreme events (Bindoff et al., 2013; Collins et al., 2013). Food and health systems face increasing risk owing to progressive climate change now manifesting itself as more frequent, severe extreme weather events—heat waves, droughts, and floods (IPCC, 2013). Often without warning, weather-related shocks can have catastrophic and reverberating impacts on the increasingly exposed global food system—through production, processing, distribution, retail, disposal, and waste. Simultaneously, malnutrition and ill health are arising from lack of access to nutritious food, exacerbated in crises such as food price spikes or shortages. For some countries, particularly import-dependent low-income countries, weather shocks and price spikes can lead to social unrest, famine, and migration.

Ruane, Alex C.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Antarctic Ice Shelf Thickness Change from Multimission Lidar Mapping

We calculate rates of ice thickness change and bottom melt for ice shelves in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula from a combination of elevation measurements from NASA–CECS Antarctic ice mapping campaigns and NASA Operation IceBridge corrected for oceanic processes from measurements and models, surface velocity measurements from synthetic aperture radar, and high-resolution outputs from regional climate models. The ice thickness change rates are calculated in a Lagrangian reference frame to reduce the effects from advection of sharp vertical features, such as cracks and crevasses, that can saturate Eulerian-derived estimates. We use our method over different ice shelves in Antarctica, which vary in terms of size, repeat coverage from airborne altimetry, and dominant processes governing their recent changes. We find that the Larsen-C Ice Shelf is close to steady state over our observation period with spatial variations in ice thickness largely due to the flux divergence of the shelf. Firn and surface processes are responsible for some short-term variability in ice thickness of the Larsen-C Ice Shelf over the time period. The Wilkins Ice Shelf is sensitive to short-timescale coastal and upper-ocean processes, and basal melt is the dominant contributor to the ice thickness change over the period. At the Pine Island Ice Shelf in the critical region near the grounding zone, we find that ice shelf thickness change rates exceed 40m/yr, with the change dominated by strong submarine melting. Regions near the grounding zones of the Dotson and Crosson ice shelves are decreasing in thickness at rates greater than 40m/yr, also due to intense basal melt. NASA–CECS Antarctic ice mapping and NASA Operation IceBridge campaigns provide validation datasets for floating ice shelves at moderately high resolution when coregistered using Lagrangian methods.

Sutterley, Tyler C.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Diversity Buffers Winegrowing Regions from Climate Change Losses

Agrobiodiversity—the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices—is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Wood et al., Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 531–539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjar et al., Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 123, 261–270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantly Vitis vinifera subspecies vinifera). We draw on long-term French records to extrapolate globally for 11 cultivars (varieties) with high diversity in a key trait for climate change adaptation—phenology. We compared scenarios where growers shift to more climatically suitable cultivars as the climate warms or do not change cultivars. We find that cultivar diversity more than halved projected losses of current winegrowing areas under a 2 °C warming scenario, decreasing areas lost from 56 to 24%. These benefits are more muted at higher warming scenarios, reducing areas lost by a third at 4 °C (85% versus 58%). Our results support the potential of in situ shifting of cultivars to adapt agriculture to climate change—including in major winegrowing regions—as long as efforts to avoid higher warming scenarios are successful.

Morales-Castilla, Ignacio↗

NASA NTRS2020

Analyzing Changes in the Complexity of Climate in the Last Four Decades Using MERRA-2 Radiation Data

The energy balance of the Earth is controlled by the shortwave and longwave radiation emitted to space. Changes in the thermodynamic state of the system over time afect climate and are noticeable when viewing the system as a whole. In this paper, we study the changes in the complexity of climate in the last four decades using data from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). First, we study the complexity of the shortwave and longwave radiation felds independently using Approximate Entropy and Sample Entropy, observing that the rate of complexity change is faster for shortwave radiation. Then, we study the causality of those changes using Transfer Entropy to capture the non-linear dynamics of climate, showing that the changes are mainly driven by the variations in shortwave radiation. The observed behavior of climatic complexity could be explained by the changes in cloud amount, and we research that possibility by investigating its evolution from a complexity perspective using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP).

Delgado-Bonal, Alfonso↗

NASA NTRS2020

Irradiation-energy Dependence on the Spectral Changes of Hydrous C-Type Asteroids Based on 4kev and 20kev He Exposure Experiments of Murchison Cm Chondrite

C-type asteroid 162173 Ryugu was observed by remote sensing apparatus onboard Hayabusa2 spacecraft and found to be very dark object whose reflectance is (1.60 ± 0.15) % at 0.55μm and showed a small 2.7μm absorption band indicative of phyllosilicates. The optical navigation camera detected color variations of Ryugu’s surface in the wavelength range from 0.4 to 0.95μm: Bluer spectra are ob-served at both poles and on the equatorial ridge, both of which are topographic highs and thus may be fresh material exposed by gradual erosion. On the other hand, many locations at middle-latitude areas exhibit redder and darker colors. Similar color variations are also detected in the near-infrared wavelength range. These observations suggest that a surface-correlated process is responsible for the color variation, most prob-ably from blue to red, but the mechanism for the change is not yet identified. Space weathering is one possible mechanism responsible for the color variation, but the spectral changes of C-type asteroids from space weathering are far from being fully understood. Past experimental studies using hydrous carbonaceous chondrites such as Murchison and Tagish Lake show that He exposure (simulating solar wind irradiation) changes spectra to bluer and brighter. Recently our He exposure experiments indicate that spectral changes depend on physical properties such as porosity of exposed material. In this study, we per-formed further He exposure experiments using Murchison CM chondrite in order to understand energy dependence on the spectral changes. We found that He energy is a critical parameter, as well as physical properties of the samples, that affects spectral changes of space weathering of hydrated C-type asteroids.

Nakamura, T.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi‐arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi‐arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in‐season soil water content from 2‐year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.

Crop simulation model↗

NASA NTRS2020

Historical and Future Changes in Air Pollutants from CMIP6 Models

Poor air quality is currently responsible for large impacts on human health across the world. In addition, the air pollutants ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) are also radiatively active in the atmosphere and can influence Earth's climate. It is important to understand the effect of air quality and climate mitigation measures over the historical period and in different future scenarios to ascertain any impacts from air pollutants on both climate and human health. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) presents an opportunity to analyse the change in air pollutants simulated by the current generation of climate and Earth system models that include a representation of chemistry and aerosols (particulate matter). The shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) used within CMIP6 encompass a wide range of trajectories in precursor emissions and climate change, allowing for an improved analysis of future changes to air pollutants. Firstly, we conduct an evaluation of the available CMIP6 models against surface observations of O3 and PM2.5. CMIP6 models consistently overestimate observed surface O3 concentrations across most regions and in most seasons by up to 16 ppb, with a large diversity in simulated values over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Conversely, observed surface PM2.5 concentrations are consistently underestimated in CMIP6 models by up to 10 µg m−3, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere winter months, with the largest model diversity near natural emission source regions. The biases in CMIP6 models when compared to observations of O3 and PM2.5 are similar to those found in previous studies. Over the historical period (1850–2014) large increases in both surface O3 and PM2.5 are simulated by the CMIP6 models across all regions, particularly over the mid to late 20th century, when anthropogenic emissions increase markedly. Large regional historical changes are simulated for both pollutants across East and South Asia with an annual mean increase of up to 40 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. In future scenarios containing strong air quality and climate mitigation measures (ssp126), annual mean concentrations of air pollutants are substantially reduced across all regions by up to 15 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. However, for scenarios that encompass weak action on mitigating climate and reducing air pollutant emissions (ssp370), annual mean increases in both surface O3 (up 10 ppb) and PM2.5 (up to 8 µg m−3) are simulated across most regions, although, for regions like North America and Europe small reductions in PM2.5 are simulated due to the regional reduction in precursor emissions in this scenario. A comparison of simulated regional changes in both surface O3 and PM2.5 from individual CMIP6 models highlights important regional differences due to the simulated interaction of aerosols, chemistry, climate and natural emission sources within models. The projection of regional air pollutant concentrations from the latest climate and Earth system models used within CMIP6 shows that the particular future trajectory of climate and air quality mitigation measures could have important consequences for regional air quality, human health and near-term climate. Differences between individual models emphasise the importance of understanding how future Earth system feedbacks influence natural emission sources, e.g. response of biogenic emissions under climate change.

Air pollutants↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Decadal and seasonal changes in barrier island geomorphology at Padre Island from 1950-2020

Barrier islands serve an important role in shielding coastal areas from storm surges and wave erosion. Monitoring changes in a barrier island system helps determine the effect of storms and sea level rise (SLR) on island stability. Changes in geomorphic facies on the islands may be indicators of an island shifting out of an equilibrium state. Here, we used aerial and satellite images of Padre Island, Texas near Mansfield Pass, to map the decadal and seasonal geomorphological changes from 1970-2020. Inspection of the images reveals that this area experienced significant change over the past five decades, transitioning from unvegetated dune fields and sand flats to expansive vegetated dunes and a tidal flat with microbial mats. Vegetated dunes, absent in 1970, now cover 14% of the study area. The active dune field shrunk from 12% coverage to 6%. The infrequently flooded back-island sand flat covering 40% of the study area has transitioned to a lower-lying tidal flat. Extensive microbial mats and crusts have developed within the wind-tidal flat, in washover fans, and in low-lying interdune areas. Possible triggers for the transition from active sand dune fields to microbial mats and vegetation may be modifications to the island topography post-hurricane Allen in 1980 and a sea-level driven water table rise. The local sea level has risen 16 cm over the study period. Monthly mapping over a full year demonstrated the strong influence the seasonal water cycle has on the back-island facies. Aeolian transport plays a primary role in the back-island geomorphology, however the availability of sand for transport is highly variable from month to month as the surface fluctuates in and out of the capillary fringe. The increasing prevalence of water table-driven facies changes leads to the conclusion that back-barrier accretion is not keeping pace with relative SLR. These facies changes may be the first signs of a degrading microtidal barrier island.

K.R. Fisher↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Land Cover Change Dynamics in the Peruvian Amazon to Map Outbreak Risk and Inform Public Health Interventions for Zoonotic Disease Prevention

Dengue fever and leishmaniasis are two tropical diseases prevalent in Madre de Dios Region of Peru and have been associated with urbanization and road construction. Rapid land use changes such as mining, timber harvesting, and hydroelectric dam development lead to denser human presence in previously sparsely-populated areas which increases the proximity of human settlements to zoonotic disease vectors. In partnership with the Peruvian Ministries of Health (MINSA), the Environment (MINAM), and other in-country collaborators, a NASA DEVELOP team examined Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes and reported dengue and leishmaniasis incidence in the Madre de Dios region. This sought to help MINSA and MINAM understand the spatial relationship between land use change and zoonotic disease incidence. We created a LULC classification script using Google Earth Engine (GEE) with Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery to classify land cover in 2010, 2015, and 2020 and evaluate changes over this time period. The team then compared the quantified results of the LULC assessment in conjunction with reported disease cases to evaluate disease incidence and key land cover changes across Madre de Dios’s 11 districts. Follow on work will use these products to develop more detailed outbreak risk maps. These products will allow MINSA, MINAM, and other partners to understand hotspots of land cover change in Peru and the relationship with outbreaks to inform public health decision makers and environmental policy.

Nataly Chacon-Buitrago↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeled Impacts of LULC and Climate Change Predictions on Water Quality in Belize

Land use and land cover (LULC) change can have detrimental effects on water quality. In Belize, agricultural expansion creates the risk of increased sediment load and excess nutrients in runoff water, while deforestation removes potential infiltration sites for this outflow. Climate change and evolving precipitation rates can intensify the quantity of runoff, further enabling the flow of sediments and excess nutrients out to the lagoon surrounding the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System (BBRRS). This study estimated future water quality in Belize by projecting LULC change through 2090 across Belize’s major watersheds based on observed trends from 2008-2018. Those LULC projections were subsequently combined with soil type data, elevation, and precipitation rates into a hydrologic model to produce runoff estimates as a proxy for water quality. The two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP-6) scenarios employed in the study represented bookend climate change scenarios, and both predicted lower precipitation rates in Belize over the next century due to climate change. When holding LULC change constant, these climate scenarios projected a decrease in runoff, suggesting a positive relationship between precipitation and runoff. The southern watersheds in particular are projected to experience greater decreases in annual rainfall and runoff by 2090. When holding climate constant, runoff increased by approximately 2.8% in the Conservation-focused LULC scenario by 2090, which was 28% lower than the Business as Usual scenario and 42% lower than the Development scenario.

water resources↗

NASA NTRS2024

3D Scanning System to Assess Gravity-Dependent Body Shape Changes

The human body shows unique physiological and morphological changes when exposed to different gravity conditions, including muscle atrophy, fluid shift, spinal elongation, and body posture adjustments. Such changes need to be incorporated for human-system integration in the vehicle habitat, garment, and spacesuit designs, as inaccurate body measurements can result in suboptimal crew protection that can potentially decrease injury tolerance. However, the traditional linear measurements, such as stature, segment lengths or circumferences measured using a caliper or tape measure, often show limited consistency and are unable to capture the nonlinear characteristics of the human body. While 3D body scanning can provide significant advantages over linear measurements, the technologies have not been fully developed or customized for in-flight scanning. For ground laboratory use, several different scanner types are commercially available. However, in-flight scanning requires additional technical considerations, such as minimal scan time, simplified calibration, and sufficient capture volume. This work aims to develop a prototype 3-D body scanning system that is customized for in-flight use to scan crewmembers, with the configuration and performance optimized for detecting known gravity-dependent body shape and posture changes. A hardware system will be custom built using a network of commercial off-the-shelf 3D sensors. The sensor parameters and settings will be optimized to detect the targeted body shape changes, specifically using body manikins of which the shape and size are iteratively permuted to simulate the known changes by fluid shift and spinal elongation. The capture volume will be also matched for a range of body sizes from a 1st percentile female to 99th percentile male. Unintentional body motions or floating in microgravity will be also simulated and incorporated. A data acquisition software will be developed for efficient in-flight operations with minimal overhead and easy-to-use user interface. A simplified calibration procedure will be designed for robust scanning against frequent vibration or unexpected sensor position shifts. The system will be tested in the ground laboratory for accuracy and reliability against a reference scanning system. New anthropometry measurements will be also identified to sensitively capture the gravity dependent body shape changes, in addition to the traditional anthropometry measurements. A novel landmark-based technique will be tested for consistent anthropometry measurements across posture variations. If successfully developed and deployed, the new system is expected to provide previously unavailable body shape and size data from different gravitational environments, including 0-g, 1/6-g, and 1-g. Such data can improve suit fit, habitat design, exercise efficacy quantification and sizing of orthostatic intolerance garments.

K H Kim↗