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NASA NTRS2012

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of hurricane disturbance and increased temperature on carbon cycling and storage of a Puerto Rican forest: a mechanistic investigation of above- and belowground processes (Final Technical Report)

The overall goal of the Tropical Responses for Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) is to assess the effects of increasing temperature on tropical plant and soil carbon fluxes and storage as the forest recovers from major hurricane disturbance that occurred in September 2017. Ultimately, we aimed to reduce uncertainty and increase confidence with which tropical forests are represented in Earth System models to make more accurate global forecasts of future climate. We focused on both above- and belowground processes and explored temperature controls over critical aspects of carbon and nutrient cycling for tropical plants, soil, and microbes. TRACE is located in a wet tropical forest in the Luquillo Experimental Forest close to the USDA Forest Service Sabana Field Research Station in Luquillo, Puerto Rico. The warming treatment consists of six 4.7 m diameter plots. Three of the plots receive infrared warming and three have the same infrastructure but are not warmed (using ‘dummy’ heaters). Each plot was monitored from 2018-2023 to investigate two major questions: 1) Are there legacy effects of prior warming on forest recovery following hurricane disturbance? 2) Will the trajectory of forest recovery following disturbance be affected by warmer temperatures? Concurrent soil incubation experiments were conducted to enable more controlled mechanistic investigations of temperature response on microbial function. In sum, our goal was to use this novel climate manipulation experiment (the only of its kind in any tropical forest) and once-in-a-lifetime chance to assess how temperature and hurricane disturbance interact to affect coupled biogeochemical cycling in a tropical forest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Climate and Extreme Weather Events in the Greater New York Area

The goal of this project is to create a framework for modeling extreme events using climate information for risk assessment in the Greater New York City (NYC) region. The central research question we addressed was how best can we use information from historical climate data and numerical models of the climate system to estimate changing risks of rainfall extremes at specific locations – starting with the NYC region as a testbed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Atmospheric Research 2014 Technical Highlights

Atmospheric research in the Earth Sciences Division (610) consists of research and technology development programs dedicated to advancing knowledge and understanding of the atmosphere and its interaction with the climate of Earth. The Division's goals are to improve understanding of the dynamics and physical properties of precipitation, clouds, and aerosols; atmospheric chemistry, including the role of natural and anthropogenic trace species on the ozone balance in the stratosphere and the troposphere; and radiative properties of Earth's atmosphere and the influence of solar variability on the Earth's climate. Major research activities are carried out in the Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Laboratory, the Climate and Radiation Laboratory, the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, and the Wallops Field Support Office. The overall scope of the research covers an end-to-end process, starting with the identification of scientific problems, leading to observation requirements for remote-sensing platforms, technology and retrieval algorithm development; followed by flight projects and satellite missions; and eventually, resulting in data processing, analyses of measurements, and dissemination from flight projects and missions. Instrument scientists conceive, design, develop, and implement ultraviolet, infrared, optical, radar, laser, and lidar technology to remotely sense the atmosphere. Members of the various Laboratories conduct field measurements for satellite sensor calibration and data validation, and carry out numerous modeling activities. These modeling activities include climate model simulations, modeling the chemistry and transport of trace species on regional-to-global scales, cloud resolving models, and developing the next-generation Earth system models. Satellite missions, field campaigns, peer-reviewed publications, and successful proposals are essential at every stage of the research process to meeting our goals and maintaining leadership of the Earth Sciences Division in atmospheric science research. Figure 1.1 shows the 20-year record of peer-reviewed publications and proposals among the various Laboratories. This data shows that the scientific work being conducted in the Laboratories is competitive with the work being done elsewhere in universities and other government agencies. The office of Deputy Director for Atmospheric Research will strive to maintain this record by rigorously monitoring and promoting quality while emphasizing coordination and integration among atmospheric disciplines. Also, an appropriate balance will be maintained between the scientists' responsibility for large collaborative projects and missions and their need to carry out active science research as a principal investigator. This balance allows members of the Laboratories to improve their scientific credentials, and develop leadership potentials. Interdisciplinary research is carried out in collaboration with other laboratories and research groups within the Earth Sciences Division, across the Sciences and Exploration Directorate, and with partners in universities and other government agencies. Members of the Laboratories interact with the general public to support a wide range of interests in the atmospheric sciences. Among other activities, the Laboratories raise the public's awareness of atmospheric science by presenting public lectures and demonstrations, by making scientific data available to wide audiences, by teaching, and by mentoring students and teachers. The Atmosphere Laboratories make substantial efforts to attract and recruit new scientists to the various areas of atmospheric research. We strongly encourage the establishment of partnerships with Federal and state agencies that have operational responsibilities to promote the societal application of our science products. This report describes our role in NASA's mission, provides highlights of our research scope and activities, and summarizes our scientists' major accomplishments during calendar year 2014. The composition of the organization is shown in Figure 1.2 for each code. This report is published in a printed version with an electronic version on our atmospheres Web site, http://atmospheres.gsfc.nasa.gov/.

Technical↗

NASA NTRS2020

Terrestrial Planets Comparative Climatology (TPCC) mission concept

The authors and co-signers of the Terrestrial Planets Comparative Climatology (TPCC) mission concept white paper advocate that planetary science in the next decade would greatly benefit from comparatively studying the fundamental behavior of the atmospheres of Venus and Mars, contemporaneously and with the same instrumentation, to capture atmospheric response to the same solar forcing, and with a minimum of instrument-related variability. NASA’s vision is to understand the effects of the Sun on the solar system and the potential for life elsewhere (Obj,1.1 of [1]). This vision directly motivates the study of terrestrial climate histories and evolution, with the ultimate goal of understanding what factors allow the emergence and sustainability of life/biosphere. It is widely accepted that Venus, Mars, and Earth were formed at the same time and in the same neighborhood of the solar nebula [2,3], and had water—a necessary ingredient for life. In spite of strong overlap in the atmospheric composition of these planets, their current climatic states are vastly different. While Earth retains water, both Mars and Venus’ surfaces are now dry. The manner in which these terrestrial bodies evolved, and whether Mars or Venus currently hosts or previously hosted life, are fundamental mysteries in planetary science. As such, the TPCC mission concept has been developed.The TPCC guiding science goals are:(1) to understand Venus’ evolutionary history compared to Mars and Earth, and (2) to elucidate the driving forces and mechanisms of global circulation at Mars and Venus. These goals address the science question: Why have Mars’ and Venus’ climates evolved so differently from each other and from Earth’s? Furthermore, a greater depth of understanding our own solar system, enables us to understand the variability and likelihood of habitable conditions within extra-solar planetary systems.We suggest a mission architecture and payload that would determine the noble gas content and isotopic ratios, including the D/H ratio, at Venus with sufficient accuracy to identify the timeline of Venus’ climatic evolution for comparison with Mars. In addition, our concept would systematically “follow the energy” at Mars and Venus, in order to establish how solar forcing on the two atmospheric systems leads to the current balance of dynamical, chemical, and radiative processes responsible for each planet’s climatic state.This would include acquisition of the first global atmospheric wind profiles on either planet;global, continuous profiles of aerosols, gases, and water vapor at vertical resolutions higher than any previous mission;and regular UV and IR night glow observations tracking global circulation on both planets.To increase the fidelity of the planned planetary comparisons, the TPCC mission concept baseline (estimated to be New Frontiers Class)would send a single spacecraft to visit one planet and then the next, allowing measurements of each planet with the same instrumentation within similar parts of the solar cycle. The concept uses commercial solar-electric propulsion (SEP; e.g., [4])similar to the Psyche mission [5], plus a probesent deep into Venus’ atmosphere(e.g., LLISSE concept; [6]).Alternatively, “twin” spacecraft (with added probe to the Venus craft),developed at the same time,and launched close in time,would increase the overlap in operation periods and should also be studied. Either architecture is a timely alternative to independently developed and launched spacecraft payloads, which ultimately are more costly and difficult to inter-calibrate.

Leslie K. Tamppari↗

NASA NTRS1992

GEWEX - The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment

GEWEX, which is part of the World Climate Research Program, has as its goal an order-of-magnitude improvement in the ability to model global precipitation and evaporation and furnish an accurate assessment of the sensitivity of atmospheric radiation and clouds. Attention will also be given to the response of the hydrological cycle and water resources to climate change. GEWEX employs a single program to coordinate all aspects of climatology from model development to the deployment and operation of observational systems. GEWEX will operate over the next two decades.

Chahine, Moustafa T.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Orbiting Carbon Observatory

Human impact on the environment has produced measurable changes in the geological record since the late 1700s. Anthropogenic emissions of CO2 today may cause the global climate to depart for its natural behavior for many millenia. CO2 is the primary anthropogenic driver of climate change. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory goals are to help collect measurements of atmospheric CO2, answering questions such as why the atmospheric CO2 buildup varies annually, the roles of the oceans and land ecosystems in absorbing CO2, the roles of North American and Eurasian sinks and how these carbon sinks respond to climate change. The present carbon cycle, CO2 variability, and climate uncertainties due atmospheric CO2 uncertainties are highlighted in this presentation.

orbiting carbon observatory (OCO)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The HySICS Pointing System: Precision Pointing of CLARREO Pathfinder from the ISS

The CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) Pathfinder (CPF) mission will measure Earth-reflected sunlight with unparalleled accuracy over existing reflected solar (RS) sensors and will also serve as an on-orbit inter-calibration reference to other orbiting sensors. In order to achieve these goals, the HySICS (HyperSpectral Imager for Climate Science) instrument will need to be pointed at a diverse set of targets including: nadir earth, co-aligned earth scans with other orbiting sensors, the Sun, and the Moon. The HySICS Pointing System (HPS) was developed to provide independent pointing at these targets from its mounting location on the ISS. This paper is focused on the HPS and describes: an overview of the CPF mission, an overview of the HPS requirements, the HPS hardware architecture, the various pointing modes that allow the HPS to point at its targets, challenges associated with performing this mission on the ISS, test results from subsystem-level HPS testing, and finally lessons learned that pertain to algorithm/software development and to the benefits of reusing pointing control hardware/architecture from the TSIS-1 mission that also has a 2-axis pointing system on the ISS from the development process.

orbit↗

NASA NTRS2017

Towards a New Food System Assessment: AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change

Agricultural stakeholders need more credible information on which to base adaptation and mitigation policy decisions. In order to provide this, we must improve the rigor of agricultural modelling. Ensemble approaches can be used to address scale issues and integrated teams can overcome disciplinary silos. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (CGRA) has the goal to link agricultural systems models using common protocols and scenarios to significantly improve understanding of climate effects on crops, livestock and livelihoods across multiple scales. The AgMIP CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, and food security to develop Protocols to guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including, socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas concentrations, and specific pathways of agricultural sector development. Through these approaches, AgMIP partners around the world are providing an evidence base for their stakeholders as they make decisions and investments.

Ensembles↗

NASA NTRS2019

Atmospheric Research 2018 Technical Highlights

Highlights↗

DOE OSTI2023

Social Vulnerability and Beacon Hill Resilience Hub Network [Slides]

Improving community resilience to climate change impacts is a core goal of the Beacon Hill stakeholder task force. Developing a network of resilience hubs in the community is a strategy the task force is pursuing to build this resilience. This technical assistance aims to assist the task force in their resilience hub network planning by: identifying hazards that the resilience hubs may address; providing background information on social vulnerability and climate impacts; identifying populations in Beacon Hill who are at risk to disproportionate climate impacts due to social isolation and physical vulnerability characteristics (e.g., lack of transportation or internet); and identifying the potential role of resilience hubs that align with best practices for reducing social vulnerability to climate impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

History of Ethanol Fuel Adoption in the United States: Policy, Economics, and Logistics

Ethanol has the achieved the greatest market share of all the alternative transportation fuels that have been researched, developed, and deployed in the US. There are multiple lessons to be learned from the history of ethanol adoption that can be applied to future fuels and products. Ethanol has replaced portions of gasoline in three main blend levels, with corresponding vehicles, equipment, benefits, and policies. The first is E10, which has replaced nearly all pure gasoline (E0) sold in the United States today (U.S. Energy Information Administration 2015). This was brought about through generations of policies that were motivated by multiple factors related to engine performance, energy security, health, air quality, and climate protection. Ethanol's high octane has been a consistent driver of the fuel because this enables higher performance engines. Early policies (1973-1979) were largely motivated by the desire to reduce dependence on petroleum sourced from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC. Fuel policy in the 1980s was largely in pursuit of promoting octane number enhancers that could replace lead. Criteria pollutant reduction was the overarching goal of actions taken from 1990 to 2005. From 2005 to the present, fuel policy has been largely motivated by energy security and climate protection goals. These policies were usually technology-agnostic and promoted multiple fuels and additives during each period. However, ethanol is the only fuel identified that is cost effective with qualities that enabled it to prosper in the policy environments of all four of these periods.The second market for ethanol is via 85% ethanol (E85). This fuel has the advantage of a greater concentration of ethanol but the disadvantage of not being compatible with regular gasoline vehicles. Instead, it can only be used in flexible-fuel vehicle (FFVs), which can use every blend level from E0 to E85. Therefore, much of the effort to increase E85 consumption has been aimed at incentivizing automakers to manufacture FFVs, drivers to purchase FFVs, and fueling stations to equip themselves to sell E85.The third, and newest, market through which ethanol is consumed is 15% ethanol (E15), which builds upon the E10 market to increase ethanol consumption by common gasoline vehicles. Efforts to create the E15 market consisted largely of testing vehicles and refueling equipment for compatibility, creating waivers to allow the use of E15, placing requirements on E15 retailers, and incentivizing retailers to equip themselves to purchase E15.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Models, In situ, and Remote sensing of Aerosols (MIRA)

The Models, In situ, and Remote sensing of Aerosols (MIRA) working group connects members of the different aerosol communities through collaborative projects. This abstract, additional details, and a list of current projects can be found at https://science.larc.nasa.gov/mira-wg/. Join our email distribution list of 200+ members at https://espo.nasa.gov/lists/listinfo/mira.In this talk, we will describe some current MIRA projects that are relevant to AeroCom (e.g., the Table of Aerosol Optics, or TAO) and the benefits of presenting your multi-disciplinary work at MIRA sessions and meetings. What is MIRA? MIRA is forum that fosters international collaborations amongst the aerosol Modeling, In situ, and Remote sensing specialties. MIRA advances scientific knowledge about aerosol properties and improves our understanding of air quality, weather, and climate through the pursuit of specific goals. MIRA emphasizes areas of study where the aerosol specialties overlap, and MIRA projects seek additional data and insight from others (observational and modeled). Why? The purpose of MIRA is to contextualize both observations and model results through the encouragement of holistic projects and collaborations. Linking aerosol disciplines removes gaps in understanding that hinder our interpretation of observations and model results. Such linkages improve our understanding of air quality, weather, and climate. How does MIRA differ from other working groups? MIRA focuses on interdisciplinarity to improve measurements and their utility, so MIRA complements the activities of other groups. Other interdisciplinary aerosol groups have different primary foci. For instance, AeroCom mainly focuses on improving global aerosol models, AeroSat focuses on strengthening collaboration amongst satellite aerosol retrieval groups, and ICAP focuses on aerosol forecasting. We hope that many MIRA projects engage these groups.

Gregory Schuster↗

DOE OSTI2021

Recent Progress in Cathode Materials for Sodium-Metal Halide Batteries

Transitioning from fossil-fuels to renewable energy sources is a critical goal of greenhouse gas re-duction and climate control. Major improvements have made wind and solar power increasingly cost-competitive with fossil fuels. However, the inherent intermittency of renewable power sources such motivates pairing these resources with energy storage. Electrochemical energy storage in batteries is widely used in many fields and increasingly for grid-level storage, but current battery technologies still fall short of performance, safety, and cost. This review focuses on sodium metal halide (Na-MH) batteries, such as well-known Na-NiCl2 batteries, as a promising solution to safe and economical grid-level energy storage. Important features of conventional Na-MH batteries are discussed, and recent literature on the development of intermediate temperature, low-cost cathodes for Na-MH batteries is highlighted. By employing lower cost metal halides (e.g. FeCl2, ZnCl2, and CuCl2, etc.) in the cathode and operating at lower temperatures (e.g. 190 °C vs. 280 °C), new Na-MH batteries have the potential to offer comparable performance at much lower overall costs, providing an exciting alternative technology to enable widespread adoption of renewables plus storage for the grid.

Zhan, Xiaowen↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distributed Wind Guidebook: Agricultural Producers and Rural Small Business Owners

Distributed wind energy technologies generate clean, carbon-free power close to the point of consumption (i.e., close to people and their energy needs). Distributed wind energy can help individuals, farms, businesses, and communities meet their unique goals, such as reducing impacts on climate change, decreasing electricity bills, boosting energy independence or autonomy from the electric grid, and enhancing grid reliability and resilience. This guidebook is designed to support you in (1) deciding if distributed wind energy is right for you, (2) installing a proven wind turbine technology by working with a reputable installer, and (3) setting up your project for success through its lifetime. The information in this guidebook is tailored to rural small businesses and agricultural producers who are interested in exploring distributed wind energy to meet their electricity, resilience, financial, and environmental goals. You will find gray boxes with key topics, definitions, and considerations throughout the guidebook. The report has been adapted from the Distributed Wind Guidebook, which offers a comprehensive view on core aspects of deploying distributed wind energy technologies. In comparison, this edition of the guidebook is designed to offer a more succinct and tailored guidebook for rural small businesses and agricultural producers. For additional detail on any topic presented within this edition, readers are advised to reference the original version of the Distributed Wind Guidebook.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gap Analysis of Global Climate Agreements

As climate change progresses, there will be greater pressure on state and nonstate actors to mitigate associated harms. This pressure will encourage aggressive action on climate change, including more ambitious emissions reduction goals and the use of both conventional and novel environmental modification techniques. Existing international agreements—including the Paris Agreement and the Environmental Modification Convention (ENMOD)—are critical to ensuring that climate change mitigation is achieved through peaceful, meaningful, and sustainable methods. With this in mind, this paper provides an overview of the Paris Agreement and ENMOD and identifies updates required for these agreements to meet the evolving challenges of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

ISCCP reduced resolution satellite radiance data

The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) is the first active project of the World Climate Research Program. It is a multinational data collection project focused on collecting a data set that will improve the ability to predict and/or simulate the radiative effects of clouds on climate. For specified cloud parameters, the goals are to archieve values for 3-hour periods over the whole globe for 5 years at 30 km resolution. The task of collecting and processing radiance data from both geosynchronous and polar orbiting satellites began in July 1983. A diagram was shown illustrating the flow of data from the transmitting satellites to the various receiving institutions that handle it. The various stages of processing were then explained in detail, emphasizing Level B3-normalized, reformatted, reduced raw satellite data. The reduction of data by sampling is an essential step in the flow. By the time the ISCCP data reaches the Global Processing Center at Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the volume has been reduced by a factor of 1000. The Pilot Climate Data System (PLDS) will provide access to the ISCCP data set. It should prove to be one of the cleanest satellite data sets because it will have been through three filters--that of the operational agency, the Global Processing Center, and the PCDS. The ISCCP data set also includes other correlative data sets delivered in compatible format.

Rossow, W.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Kalman Filter and High Performance Computing at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining actual observations with model simulations to produce a more accurate description of the earth system than the observations alone provide. The output of data assimilation, sometimes called "the analysis", are accurate regular, gridded datasets of observed and unobserved variables. This is used not only for weather forecasting but is becoming increasingly important for climate research. For example, these datasets may be used to assess retrospectively energy budgets or the effects of trace gases such as ozone. This allows researchers to understand processes driving weather and climate, which have important scientific and policy implications. The primary goal of the NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is to provide datasets for climate research and to support NASA satellite and aircraft missions. This presentation will: (1) describe ongoing work on the advanced Kalman/Lagrangian filter parallel algorithm for the assimilation of trace gases in the stratosphere; and (2) discuss the Kalman filter in relation to other presentations from the DAO on Four Dimensional Data Assimilation at this meeting. Although the designation "Kalman filter" is often used to describe the overarching work, the series of talks will show that the scientific software and the kind of parallelization techniques that are being developed at the DAO are very different depending on the type of problem being considered, the extent to which the problem is mission critical, and the degree of Software Engineering that has to be applied.

Lyster, Peter M.↗