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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing and Exploring Untapped Micro-Hydro Hybrid Systems: a Multi-Objective Approach for Crystal Lake as a Large-Scale Energy Storage Solution

Increasing electricity demand and concerns about climate change and fossil fuel consumption have highlighted the importance of renewable energy resources and storage systems. This paper proposes a method for exploring untapped pumped hydro storage potentials to accommodate intermittent renewable energy generation profiles. Hourly measured data from 2022 in Benzie County, Michigan, United States, were gathered for system sizing and a thorough, realistic analysis. By employing the multi-objective grey wolf optimization algorithm, we formulated optimal sizing and energy-management strategies for three different scenarios. Unlike similar studies, the 3rd with triple objective functions (OFs) scenario aims to maximize both reliability and ecological OFs while minimizing the cost OF. It has shown promising results with multiple solutions, considering economic, environmental, and reliability factors. A case study conducted in Crystal Lake, Michigan, revealed that although Crystal Lake would function only as a micro-hydro power facility, it is a promising and huge storage unit with a substantial storage capacity of around 14.9734GWh. The system investigated is significant in the USA due to its rapid deployment capabilities, minimal construction requirements, and ease of integration with the distribution grid. The fuzzy logic method was employed to identify the best non-dominant solution among the other solutions. Furthermore, these outcomes include a notably low levelized cost of energy at 0.046147$/kWh, a robust index of reliability of 99.705%, and a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions amounting to 7.9142×10 3 tons/year, when considering the triple OFs. The paper’s methodology provides valuable insights for regions aiming to utilize renewable energy from untapped storage sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Bar Bartlett Experimental Forest

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Bar Bartlett Experimental Forest. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Bar Bartlett Experimental Forest produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Bartlett Experimental Forest (448170 N, 71830 W) is located within the White Mountains National Forest in north-central New Hampshire, USA. The 1050 ha forest extends across an elevational range from 200 to 900 m a.s.l. It was established in 1931 and is managed by the USDA Forest Service Northeastern Research Station in Durham, NH. The climate is humid continental with short, cool summers (mean July temperature, 19.8C) and long, cold winters (mean January temperature, 9.8C). Annual precipitation averages 130 cm and is distributed evenly throughout the year. Soils are developed from glacial till and are predominantly shallow, well-drained spodosols. At lowto mid-elevation, vegetation is dominated by northern hardwoods (American beech, Fagus grandifolia; sugar maple, Acer saccharum; yellow birch, Betula alleghaniensis; with some red maple, Acer rubrum and paper birch, Betula papyrifera). Conifers (eastern hemlock, Tsuga canadensis; eastern white pine, Pinus strobus; red spruce, Picea rubens) are occasionally found intermixed with the more abundant deciduous species but are generally confined to the highest (red spruce) and lowest (hemlock and pine) elevations. In 2003, the site was adopted as a NASA North American Carbon Program (NACP) Tier-2 field research and validation site. A 26.5 m high tower was installed in a low-elevation northern hardwood stand in November, 2003, for the purpose of making eddy covariance measurements of the forest–atmosphere exchange of CO2, H2O and radiant energy. Continuous flux and meteorological measurements began in January, 2004, and are ongoing. Average canopy height in the vicinity of the tower is approximately 20–22 m. In the tower footprint, the forest is predominantly classified into red maple, sugar maple, and American beech forest types. Leaf area index in the vicinity of the tower is 3.6 as measured by seasonal litterfall collection, and 4.5 as measured by the optically based Li-Cor LAI-2000 instrument. Further site information: http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/durham/4155/bartlett.htm

Richardson, Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recalibration of missing low-frequency variability and trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Multi-decadal trends in the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are under-represented by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), consistent with a lack of autocorrelation in their NAO index series. This study proposes and tests two simple “reddening” approaches for correcting this problem in simulated indices based on simple one parameter short-term (AR; Auto-Regressive order 1) and long-term (FD; Fractional-Difference) time series filters. Using CGCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the FD filter successfully improves the autocorrelation structure of the NAO, and in turn the simulation of extreme trends, while the AR filter is less successful. The 1963–1993 NAO trend is the maximum 31-year trend in the historical period. Raw CGCMs underestimate the likelihood of this trend by a factor of ten but this discrepancy is corrected after reddening. CMIP6 future projections show that long-term (2024–2094) NAO ensemble mean trends systematically increase with the magnitude of radiative forcing: -2.4 to 3.5 hPa/century for low-to-high forcing after reddening (more than double the range using raw output). The related likelihood of future maximum 31year trends comparable to 1963–1993 ranges from 3 to 7% whereas none of these CMIP6 projections simulate this without reddening. Near-term projections of the next 31 years (2024–2054) are less sensitive than long term trends to the future scenario, showing weak-to-no forced trend. However, reddening increases the ensemble range by 74% (to +/-1 standard deviation/decade), which could increase/decrease regional climate change signals in the Northern Hemisphere by magnitudes that are underestimated when using raw CGCM output.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

The influence of burn severity on dissolved organic carbon concentrations across a stream network differs based on seasonal wetness conditions

Large, high-severity wildfires in many regions across the globe have increased concerns about their impacts on carbon cycling in watersheds. Altered sources of carbon and changes in catchment hydrology after wildfire can lead to shifts in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in streams, which can have negative impacts on aquatic ecosystem health and downstream drinking-water treatment. Despite its importance, post-fire DOC responses remain relatively unconstrained in the literature, and we lack critical knowledge of how burn severity, landscape elements, and climate interact to affect DOC concentrations. To improve our understanding of the impact of burn severity on DOC concentrations, we measured DOC at 129 sites across a stream network extending upstream, within, and downstream of a large, high-severity wildfire in Oregon, USA. We collected samples across the study sub-basin during four distinct seasonal wetness conditions. We used our high-spatial-resolution data to develop spatial stream network (SSN) models to predict DOC across the stream network and to improve our understanding of the controls on DOC concentrations. Spatially, we found no obvious wildfire signal – instead, we observed a pattern of increasing DOC concentrations from the high-elevation headwaters to the sub-basin outlet, while the mainstem maintained consistently low DOC concentrations. This suggests that effects from large wildfires may be “averaged” out at higher stream orders and larger spatial scales. When we grouped DOC concentrations by burn severity group, we observed a significant decrease in the variability of DOC concentrations in the moderate and high burn severity sub-catchments. However, our SSN models were able to predict decreases in DOC concentrations with increases in burn severity across the stream network. Decreases in DOC concentrations were also highly variable across seasonal wetness conditions, with the greatest (–1.40 to –1.64 mg L –1 ) decrease occurring in the high-severity group during the wetting season. Additionally, our models indicated that in all seasons, baseflow index was more influential in predicting DOC concentrations than burn severity was, indicating that groundwater discharge can obscure the impacts of wildfire in a stream network. Overall, our results suggested that landscape characteristics can regulate the DOC response to wildfire. Moreover, our results also indicated that the seasonal timing of sampling can influence the observed response of DOC concentrations to wildfire.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Responses of Marginal and Intrinsic Water-Use Efficiency to Changing Aridity Using FLUXNET Observations

According to classic stomatal optimization theory, plant stomata are regulated to maximize carbon assimilation for a given water loss. A key component of stomatal optimization models is marginal water-use efficiency (mWUE), the ratio of the change of transpiration to the change in carbon assimilation. Although the mWUE is often assumed to be constant, variability of mWUE under changing hydrologic conditions has been reported. However, there has yet to be a consensus on the patterns of mWUE variabilities and their relations with atmospheric aridity. We investigate the dynamics of mWUE in response to vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and aridity index using carbon and water fluxes from 115 eddy covariance towers available from the global database FLUXNET. We demonstrate a non-linear mWUE-VPD relationship at a sub-daily scale in general; mWUE varies substantially at both low and high VPD levels. However, mWUE remains relatively constant within the mid-range of VPD. Despite the highly non-linear relationship between mWUE and VPD, the relationship can be informed by the strong linear relationship between ecosystem-level inherent water-use efficiency (IWUE) and mWUE using the slope, m *. We further identify site-specific m * and its variability with changing site-level aridity across six vegetation types. We suggest accurately representing the relationship between IWUE and VPD using Michaelis–Menten or quadratic functions to ensure precise estimation of mWUE variability for individual sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Applying the index of watershed integrity to the Matanuska–Susitna basin

The Matanuska-Susitna Borough is the fastest growing region in the State of Alaska and is impacted by a number of human activities. We conducted a multiscale assessment of the stressors facing the borough by developing and mapping the Index of Watershed Integrity (IWI) and Index of Catchment Integrity (the latter considers stressors in areas surrounding individual stream segments exclusive of upstream areas). The assessment coincided with the borough’s stormwater management planning. We adapted the list of anthropogenic stressors used in the original conterminous United States IWI application to reflect the borough’s geography, human activity, and data availability. This analysis also represents an early application of the NHDPlus High Resolution geospatial framework and the first use of the framework in an IWI study. We also explored how remediation of one important stressor, culverts, could impact watershed integrity at the catchment and watershed scales. Overall, we found that the integrity scores for the Matanuska– Susitna basin were high compared to the conterminous United States. Low integrity scores did occur in the rapidly developing Wasilla–Palmer core area. We also found that culvert remediation had a larger proportional impact in catchments with fewer stressors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Vegetation Warming Experiment: 15N Uptake Experiment Arctagrostis latifolia Canopy Traits, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2018

This dataset consists of measured Arctagrostis latifolia canopy traits harvested from vegetation warming experiment enclosures and paired control plots located on the BEO, Utqiavik, Alaska. Harvest types include both natural abundance and enriched A. latifolia. Canopy traits measured include leaf area index (LAI), specific leaf area (SLA) and maximum height. Vegetation warming chambers (Zero Power) were deployed on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiavik, Alaska. These chambers (Figure 1) consistently elevated air temperatures by approximately 4°C using a self-venting system described by Lewin et al (2017). Five chambers were deployed from June 17, 2018 to September 24, 2018 on the BEO within a 1 km2 area centered on 71.275N, -156.641W. Each chamber was co-located with an ambient plot where temperatures were not manipulated on patches of tundra containing the target species Arctagrostis latifolia. An intensive field campaign in late July investigated the impact of warming had on A. latifolia biomass, chemistry, and uptake of 15N labeled ammonia that was injected into the surface soils for one week. Initial measurements were taken on July 21, 2018. Harvest occurred on July 27, 2018. Water-extractable nutrients in soils were measured in July following harvests of A. latifolia plants and underlying soils. Availability of ammonia, nitrate, and phosphate throughout the growing season was measured by extracting nutrients bound to anion and cation binding resins deployed from July through September. Environmental variables (thaw depth, surface soil temperatures, surface soil moisture) were measured. Leaf traits and root traits of A. latifolia were also measured. This dataset includes one csv file and one pdf file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data and scripts associated with “Non-random processes impacting organic matter chemistry are maximized in mid-order streams”

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the publication “Non-random processes impacting organic matter chemistry are maximized in mid-order streams” submitted to Limnology and Oceanography (L&O) by Danczak et al. (in review). This package contains data and scripts used to investigate dissolved organic matter (DOM) molecular chemistry and diversification processes across 47 surface-water sampling sites in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA, during an August 2021 sampling campaign. The package contains analyses of ultrahigh-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS), geochemical measurements, geospatial attributes, molecular diversity, and meta-metabolome ecological null models needed to reproduce the main manuscript results. The underlying field data were pulled from exising data packages at https://doi.org/10.15485/1892052 (Fulton et al., 2022) and https://doi.org/10.15485/1898914 (Grieger et al., 2022). For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. We thank the following organizations for providing access to field locations for sample collection: the United States Forest Service, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Natural Resources, the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation, and the Cowiche Canyon Conservatory. Research was conducted under Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission Scientific Research Permit #210901. We are grateful to the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for their collaboration in facilitating sample collection and ensuring data usage aligns with their values and worldview. This data package contains an R-Markdown file for analyses and five folders: (1) Data, (2) Geospatial Data, (3) Supplemental_Files, (5) Figures_pdf, (4) and src. The Data folder contains tabular inputs and derived files used in the manuscript analysis. The Geospatial Data folder contains climate and water-balance, hydrologic, land-cover, population/regional water-use, stream, topographic, and stream-order attribute CSV files. The src folder contains scripts used to process data, run analyses, and generate figures. The Figures_pdf folder contains manuscript figure outputs. The Supplemental_Files folder contains supplemental analysis products. All files are .csv, .pdf, .html, .png, .R, .Rmd, .svg, or .tre. This data package is associated with the rcfsa-RC2-SPS_Null_Modeling repository found at https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/rcfsa-RC2-SPS_Null_Modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of a plant carbon–nitrogen interface coupling framework in a coupled biophysical-ecosystem–biogeochemical model (SSiB5/TRIFFID/DayCent-SOM v1.0)

Plant and microbial nitrogen (N) dynamics and N availability regulate the photosynthetic capacity and capture, allocation, and turnover of carbon (C) in terrestrial ecosystems. Studies have shown that a wide divergence in representations of N dynamics in land surface models leads to large uncertainties in the biogeochemical cycle of terrestrial ecosystems and then in climate simulations as well as the projections of future trajectories. In this study, a plant C–N interface coupling framework is developed and implemented in a coupled biophysical-ecosystem–biogeochemical model (SSiB5/TRIFFID/DayCent-SOM v1.0). The main concept and structure of this plant C–N framework and its coupling strategy are presented in this study. This framework takes more plant N-related processes into account. The dynamic ratio (CNR) for each plant functional type (PFT) is introduced to consider plant resistance and adaptation to N availability to better evaluate the plant response to N limitation. Furthermore, when available N is less than plant N demand, plant growth is restricted by a lower maximum carboxylation capacity of RuBisCO (V c,max ), reducing gross primary productivity (GPP). In addition, a module for plant respiration rates is introduced by adjusting the respiration with different rates for different plant components at the same N concentration. Since insufficient N can potentially give rise to lags in plant phenology, the phenological scheme is also adjusted in response to N availability. All these considerations ensure a more comprehensive incorporation of N regulations to plant growth and C cycling. This new approach has been tested systematically to assess the effects of this coupling framework and N limitation on the terrestrial carbon cycle. Long-term measurements from flux tower sites with different PFTs and global satellite-derived products are employed as references to assess these effects. The results show a general improvement with the new plant C–N coupling framework, with more consistent emergent properties, such as GPP and leaf area index (LAI), compared to the observations. The main improvements occur in tropical Africa and boreal regions, accompanied by a decrease in the bias in global GPP and LAI by 16.3 % and 27.1 %, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

NGEE Arctic CO2, CH4 and Energy Eddy-Covariance (EC) Flux Tower Auxiliary Measurements, Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2017 - 2019

Measurements began in July 2017 and are made year-round (2017 seasonal only) on the tussock tundra with discontinuous permafrost at the Council Road Site on the Seward Peninsula. CO2, CH4 and energy fluxes using the Eddy Covariance (EC) technique (Baldocchi 2003) and meteorological measurements are reported as 30-minute averages. The tower site is registered with AmeriFlux as US-NGC. See http://ameriflux.lbl.gov/sites/siteinfo/US-NGC for more information. Reported data include: (1) additional/extra meteorological and eddy covariance CO2, CH4 and energy flux data, (2) binned spectra for the three wind components, the sonic temperature and gas densities together with the binned cospectra for covariances of w (vertical wind component) and gas densities, (3) binned ogives (cumulative (co)spectra) for the three wind components, the sonic temperature and gas densities, and (4) tower site footprint matrices. The majority of the files are *.csv with paired visualization footprint files as *.jpg. Meteorological and eddy covariance CO2, CH4 and energy flux data (AmeriFlux BASE data product) are available from AmeriFlux BASE US-NGC NGEE Arctic Council (Torn, 2020) https://doi.org/10.17190/AMF/1634883. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas in the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An improved daily standardized precipitation index dataset for mainland China from 1961 to 2018

The standardized precipitation index (SPI), one of the most commonly used drought indicators, is widely used in the research areas of drought analysis and drought prediction in different fields such as meteorology, agriculture, and hydrology. However, its main disadvantage is the relatively coarse time resolution of one month. To improve the time resolution of SPI to identify flash droughts, we have refined the traditional SPI calculation method and developed a new multi-scale daily SPI dataset based on data from 484 meteorological stations in mainland China from 1961 to 2018. SPI data from three different sites (located in Henan, Yunnan, and Fujian Provinces) at the three-month timescale were analyzed by comparing with historically recorded drought events. We found that the new multi-scale daily SPI can effectively capture drought events in different periods and locations and identify the specific start and end times of drought events. In short, our SPI dataset appears reasonable and capable of facilitating drought research in different fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of global snow drought characteristics from 1850 to 2100

Abstract Seasonal snow is an integral part of the global water supply and storage system. Snow droughts impact ecological, agricultural, and urban systems by altering the amount and timing of meltwater delivery. These droughts are characterized by a lack of on-the-ground snow (snow water equivalent, SWE) that can be caused by low total precipitation (dry drought) or low proportion of precipitation falling as snowfall (warm drought), often combined with an early melt. The standardized SWE index (SWEI) ranks the current status of SWE for a given location compared to a baseline condition and identifies the existence, but not the cause, of snow drought. In this work, we use estimates of SWE, temperature, and precipitation from nine coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) models to quantify the frequency, severity, and type of snow droughts globally for historical and future scenarios. Compared to a historical baseline (1850–1900) total snow drought frequency more than doubles under socio-economic pathway (SSP)2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5; all of the increase in snow drought frequency comes from an increase in warm droughts. The probability distribution of future SWEI in major snowy basins around the world are likely to be centered on more negative values, which corresponds to more severe drought and, with only moderate changes in distribution spread, more frequent drought. CMIP6 simulations pinpoint snow drought as an emerging global threat to water resources and highlight the need to explore higher resolution future models that better capture complex mountain topography, wildland fires, and snow-forest interactions.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2025

NGEE Arctic Tram: Radiation and Environmental Measurements over Low- and High-Centered Polygon Vegetation Communities, Barrow, Alaska, 2014-2017

These data were generated from an observational platform (Tram), an automated cart carrying a suite of radiation and remote sensing instruments running on 68 meters of elevated track 1 to 1.5 meters above the surface of the vegetation communities of low- and high-centered polygon ground. The Tram is in the footprint of the NGEE Arctic/AmeriFlux eddy covariance flux tower (US-NGB) at the Barrow Environmental Observatory, Barrow, Alaska, and operated before, during, and after the growing seasons of 2014-2017. Dataset includes one user guide (*.pdf) with final and raw *.csv data files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of sun zenith angle on canopy clumping and the resulting impacts on photosynthesis

Addressing the impact of vegetation architecture on shortwave radiation transfer in land surface models is important for accurate weather forecasting, carbon budget estimates, and climate predictions. This paper investigates to what extent it is possible to retrieve structural parameters of two different parameterization schemes from direct transmittance derived from digital hemispherical photography and 3D radiative transfer modeling for two study sites with different vegetation canopy architectures. Neglecting the representation of 3D canopy structure in radiative transfer schemes leads to significant errors in shortwave radiation partitioning (up to 3.5 times more direct transmittance in the 3D model). Structural parameters, referred to as whole canopy ‘clumping indices’, were obtained in order to evaluate the impact of angular variation in clumping on shortwave radiation transfer. Impacts on photosynthesis were evaluated at site level with the UKESM land surface model, JULES. A comparison between flux tower derived and modeled photosynthesis indicates that considering zenith angular variations of structural parameters in the radiative transfer scheme of the UKESM land surface model significantly improves photosynthesis prediction in light limited ecosystems (from RMSE = 2.91 μmol CO 2 .m -2 .s -1 to RMSE = 1.51 μmol CO 2 .m -2 .s -1 , 48% smaller), typically with enhanced photosynthesis from bottom layers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations

Overview The Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) model is an open-source geospatial python package that provides new power plant locations at a 1km resolution. The model ingests U.S. state or regional-scale electricity system capacity expansion plans, such as those produced by the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), and identifies feasible, site-specific locations for individual new power plants (renewable and non-renewable). CERF combines high-resolution geospatial suitability analyses with an economic algorithm that selects individual plant siting locations based on grid interconnection costs and the locational marginal value of new generation. The model incorporates a wide range of dynamic constraints and opportunities, such as protected lands, population density, existing infrastructure, and water availability. This dataset provides CERF power plant siting results for IM3 Phase 2 simulations across eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 CERF siting results in this dataset correspond to capacity expansion plans in the GCAM-USA IM3 Phase 2 simulation data and are available for each of the above scenarios. Data Details Temporal Range: 2015-2055 in 5-year timesteps. Note that 2015 is the experiment base year and 2020 and beyond represent model simulation years. Spatial Range: Plant locations are provided for the eleven states in the Western US including Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Spatial Resolution: 1 km-squared, provided in x and y coordinates Geospatial Projection: Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) File Type: csv The dataset contains subdirectories for each of the eight scenarios described in the overview. Each scenario folder contains two subfolders with the following information: 1. Power Plant Data This directory contains a single .csv file of power plant locations for both pre-existing (non-CERF sited plants in operation in 2015) and new (CERF-sited) power plants across the temporal range along with additional CERF model output parameters for CERF-sited plants. Plant with a siting year earlier than 2020 correspond to facilities that are operational leading into the first timestep CERF simulation. For a more detailed description of CERF model output parameters, see the CERF model documentation. Note that the cerf_plant_id parameter is unique within each scenario file but not across scenario files. Parameter Descriptions scenario - Name of scenario cerf_plant_id - Unique siting identifier cerf_sited - If True, indicates that plant was sited by CERF model. If False, indicates pre-existing facility region_name - Name of region (state) tech_id - Technology ID tech_name - Full generation technology name inclusive of cooling type (if applicable) and additional characteristics tech_simple - Simplified generation technology type unit_size_mw - Power plant unit size (MW) xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) index - Index position in the flattend 2D array buffer_in_km - Exclusion buffer around site (km) sited_year - Year of siting retirement_year - Year of retirement lmp_zone - Locational marginal price (LMP) zone ID locational_marginal_price_usd_per_mwh - Locational marginal price ($/MWh) generation_mwh_per_year - Generation output (MWh/yr) operating_cost_usd_per_year - Cost of plant operations ($/yr) net_operational_value - Net operational value based on LMP and and operating costs ($/yr) interconnection_cost - Cost of interconnection for transmission & gas pipeline (if applicable) net_locational_cost -- Difference of interconnection cost and operating value ($/yr) capacity_factor_fraction - Capacity factor (fraction) carbon_capture_rate_fraction - Carbon capture rate (fraction) fuel_co2_content_tons_per_btu - Fuel CO2 content (tons/Btu) fuel_price_usd_per_mmbtu - Fuel price ($/MMBtu) fuel_price_esc_rate_fraction - Fuel price escalation rate (fraction) heat_rate_btu_per_kWh - Heat rate (Btu/kWh) lifetime_yrs - Technology lifetime for annuity (years) operational_life_yrs - Operational lifetime for retirement (years) variable_om_usd_per_mwh - Variable operation and maintenance costs of yearly capacity use ($/MWh) variable_om_esc_rate_fraction - Variable operation and maintenance costs escalation rate (fraction) carbon_tax_usd_per_ton - Carbon tax ($/ton) carbon_tax_esc_rate_fraction - Carbon tax escalation rate (fraction) 2. Storage Data This directory contains information on new and pre-existing energy storage facilities operational in each timestep along with various storage operational parameters. The 2015 timestep provides pre-existing energy storage data and corresponds with facilities that are operational leading into the first model simulation timestep. Note that coordinates in the storage files correspond to the interconnection point on the grid (substation location), not individual energy storage locations. Energy storage is added in a cumulative process at each given interconnection point. That is, each individual file provides the total operational storage capacity interconnected to the specified substation for the given timestep, inclusive of previously installed storage at that location and new storage installed in that timestep at that location. Parameters scenario - Name of scenario timestep - Simulation timestep name - Unique storage identifier s_typ - Type of energy storage technology (battery or pumped storage hydro) s_node - Node ID of interconnecting substation xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) charge_rate - Maximum charge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) discharge_rate - Maximum discharge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) duration - Duration of storage system (hours) max_SoC - Allowed maximum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) min_SoC -Allowed minimum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) charge_eff - Efficiency of charge (fraction between 0 and 1) discharge_eff - Efficiency of discharge (fraction between 0 and 1) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

CERF↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phoenix Dust Storm (PHX-DUST) Scale: A Cooperatively Developed Dust Storm Scale for Phoenix, Arizona

Using extensive localized meteorological and air quality data for central Arizona from 2010 to 2023, we create a postevent dust storm scale for use by the primary stakeholders in central Arizona for the Phoenix metropolitan area called the Phoenix Dust Storm (PHX-DUST) scale. To ensure usability across a wide spectrum of users, a core concept was to “keep it simple.” The PHX-DUST scale is based on (i) maximum dust concentration for particulate matter (PM10) across the network in micrograms per cubic meter which determines category, e.g., “category 5 (the highest observed category)” and category 4; (ii) the number of network monitors achieving dust concentrations above a threshold of 500 μg m−3 (categorized as “widespread” or “isolated,” as measures of spatial extent); (iii) a duration parameter (which determines “long duration” or “short duration”); and (iv) a measure of wind speed over the affected area (maximum wind gust recorded over the network, which may not be the maximum wind of the storm). Using this index for the 189 dust storms impacting the Phoenix metropolitan area for the period 2010–23, the most severe dust storm occurred on 5 July 2011 and is classified as a “Category 5, Widespread, Long-Duration High-Gust” event. This initial attempt at defining the PHX-DUST scale holds valuable applications for research, education, and applied analyses. It demonstrates that a consortium of interested groups can effectively work to create products benefiting the weather community and general public. Here, the PHX-DUST scale can also serve as a foundational framework for application in other regions where dust storms pose a threat to the well-being of populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems.

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2026

Terrestrial laser scanning data (Levels 0 and 1) for Pasoh, Malaysia, Sep 2024

This data package contains data from terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) at the Pasoh Forest Reserve, Malaysia. The Pasoh Forest Reserve is a facility of the Forest Research Institute Malaysia, and contains evergreen lowland dipterocarp forest. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments Tropics (NGEE-Tropics) study areas at Pasoh were established to study how different species respond to climatic variation and soil water availability. Two study areas were chosen representing different topography and species. The TLS data archived here were collected to provide detailed, three-dimensional information about forest structure. Specifically, data were collected to allow tree-level characterization of woody structure and leaf area for 12 focal trees with FloraPulse and sap flux sensors, facilitating estimation of woody biomass and leaf area to allow upscaling of water content and transpiration data to the tree-level. Scan positions were not selected to provide consistent data for non-focal trees with the study areas. This data package contains the following data: - High-level files document further details of the campaign and data package: 1_CampaignSummary.csv provides details about the campaign and study site, 2_ScanAreasDetail.csv provides details about each separate scan area (groups of scans post-processed into a single point cloud), 3_TerrestrialLidarSensor.csv provides further technical details about the Riegl VZ-400i TLS sensor, TLS_CSV_dd.csv is a CSV Data Dictionary providing information about the fields in CSV files following the ESS-DIVE CSV File Formatting Guidelines Reporting Format, TLS_flmd.csv is a File Level Metadata file providing information about each file in the data package following the ESS-DIVE File Level Metadata Reporting Format, and README.txt is a text file describing the overall project and file structure. - Level 0 data are the raw data (.PROJ folders) as recorded by the Riegl VZ-400i TLS instrument before scan co-registration and post-processing with the Riegl's proprietary RiSCAN PRO software, which requires a license. - Level 1 data contain post-processed, co-registered data from each scan area. The "PointClouds" folder for each scan area contains a .las file with 1 cm resolution point cloud data exported from RiSCAN PRO. These are the main files likely to be of interest to most users and can be further processed with any software capable of manipulating .las files (e.g. Python, R CloudCompare). The "Project Information" folder contains log files from post-processing in RiSCAN PRO that may be of interest to users who want to see detailed records of post-processing, including all PDF reports generated by RiSCAN PRO. The "ScanPositions" folder contains information about the final position of all TLS scans, after post-processing, in multiple formats. The file ScanPositions_*.csv provides final geo-referenced scan positions, and the file SOP_backup_*.csv can be used in RiSCAN PRO to restore the co-registered scan positions if users wish to re-process raw data (Level 0 .PROJ folders) with RiSCAN PRO software (e.g., subsample to a different resolution, exclude a certain scan position, or apply different filters on reflectance or deviation values) without redoing time-consuming co-registration steps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗