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At least 289 records · Page 16

Gaussian Process Regression under Computational and Epistemic Misspecification

Gaussian process regression is a classical kernel method for function estimation and data interpolation. In large data applications, computational costs can be reduced using low-rank or sparse approximations of the kernel. This paper investigates the effect of such kernel approximations on the interpolation error. We introduce a unified framework to analyze Gaussian process regression under important classes of computational misspecification: Karhunen-Loève expansions that result in low-rank kernel approximations, multiscale wavelet expansions that induce sparsity in the covariance matrix, and finite element representations that induce sparsity in the precision matrix. Furthermore, our theory also accounts for epistemic misspecification in the choice of kernel parameters.

Gaussian process regression↗

Design and Analysis of Buckling-Critical Large-Scale Sandwich Composite Cylindrical Test Articles

It has long been established in the literature that the buckling response of thin-shell structures can be very sensitive to the presence of small geometric and loading imperfections. The Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor Project (SBKF) was established by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to develop analysis-based shell buckling design recommendations for stiffened-metallic and composite launch-vehicle shell structures. Large-scale buckling tests were used to validate the modeling and analysis methods applied in developing these analysis-based recommendations. Herein, the test article design methodology for 8-ft-diameter, honeycomb-core sandwich composite cylinder validation tests is discussed and cylinder designs are presented. In this methodology, first, the sandwich composite design space was defined using several nondimensional parameters, and the desired test article design space was determined by examining the designs of launch-vehicle cylinder structures. Essentially all test article designs within certain design parameters were generated and then downselected based on simple closed-form failure calculations and the nondimensional design-space parameters. Four of these designs that spanned a significant portion of the design space of interest and had global buckling as the first predicted failure mode were selected and subjected to higher-fidelity finite element analyses (FEAs): shell-element-based analyses, axisymmetric-element-based analyses, and global-local analyses. The analysis flow discussed in this report supported the design objective. As the analysis flow progressed, designs were downselected so the fidelity of the analysis methods, and consequently their computational cost and accuracy, was increased. The selection of the FEA types created an analysis framework where particular methods complemented each other and reduced the uncertainty of the predicted test article responses. The analysis results are illustrated using several designs when the computationally expeditious closed-form analysis stage is discussed. Once this stage is complete, the higher-fidelity FEA types are illustrated using one selected detailed test article design. Both perfect and imperfect test article geometries were considered.

Buckling↗

Evaluation of Higher-order Quadrature Schemes in Improving Computational Efficiency for Orientation-averaged Single-Scattering Properties of Nonspherical Ice Particles

We evaluate several high-order quadrature schemes for accuracy and efficacy in obtaining orientation-averaged single-scattering properties (SSPs). We use the highly efficient MIDAS to perform electromagnetic scattering calculations to evaluate the gain in efficiency from these schemes. MIDAS is shown to be superior to DDSCAT, a popular discrete dipole approximation (DDA) method. This study is motivated by the fact that quality physical precipitation retrievals rely on using accurate orientation-averaged SSPs derived from realistic hydrometeors as input to radiative transfer Models (RTMs). The DDA has been a popular choice for single-scattering calculations, due to its versatility with respect to target geometry. However, being iterative-solver-based (ISB), the most used DDA codes, e.g. DDSCAT and ADDA, must solve the scattering problem for each orientation of the target separately. As the size parameter and geometric anisotropy of the hydrometeor increase, the number of orientations needed to obtain accurate orientation-averages can increase drastically and so does the computation cost incurred by the ISB-DDA methods. MIDAS is a Direct-Solver-Based (DSB) code, its decomposition of the original large matrix with a high rank into multiple more manageable smaller matrices of lower ranks makes it much more computationally efficient while maintaining excellent accuracy. In addition, direct solvers consider all requested orientations at once, giving MIDAS further advantage over popular ISB-DDA methods. MIDAS, when combined with high-order quadrature for orientation averaging, can be greater than three orders of magnitude more efficient in obtaining RTM-ready SSPs of complex-shaped hydrometeors than existing ISB-DDA methods, with the native quadrature schemes they offer.

Ines Fenni↗

Development & Experimental Validation of a Generalized Resistance-Capacitance Model for Numerical Simulation of Phase-Change Material Embedded Heat Exchangers

Latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) using phase change material (PCM) has attracted increased attention as a viable solution for overcoming the mismatch between energy supply and demand for renewable energy-based systems. PCM-embedded heat exchangers (PCM-HX) have the potential to significantly improve thermal performance due to high storage capacity and low temperature variation during the phase change process. Most models for simulating LHTES heat transfer use Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations, which have high computational costs resulting from considering the complex and time-dependent physics relevant to PCM-HXs. In this paper, a Generalized Resistance Capacitance-based Model (GRCM) was developed to predict the thermal performance of arbitrary PCM-HXs in a computationally efficient manner without compromising modeling accuracy. The GRCM is exercised for three case studies: (i) verification for a single-slabbed finned PCM-HX, (ii) verification and validation for a copper foam/paraffin composite PCM-HX, and (iii) validation for a straight tube annular finned PCM-HX. The copper foam PCM-HX uses an electric heater at the top of HX, while the other two configurations utilize water as heat transfer fluid. For the single-slabbed finned PCM-HX melting case, the mean deviation in average PCM temperature predicted by the GRCM compared to the CFD model was between 0.56 – 0.73 K, with maximum temperature deviation of 2.68 K. For the HTF outlet temperature, the validation results showed that GRCM prediction matches very well with experimental data, with mean temperature deviation of 0.24 K during melting case, while for solidification case was 0.34 K. These results showcase the GRCM’s capability for accurately reproducing the thermal characteristics of PCM-HXs with considerably lower computational effort.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Learning a general model of single phase flow in complex 3D porous media

Modeling effective transport properties of 3D porous media, such as permeability, at multiple scales is challenging as a result of the combined complexity of the pore structures and fluid physics—in particular, confinement effects which vary across the nanoscale to the microscale. While numerical simulation is possible, the computational cost is prohibitive for realistic domains, which are large and complex. Although machine learning (ML) models have been proposed to circumvent simulation, none so far has simultaneously accounted for heterogeneous 3D structures, fluid confinement effects, and multiple simulation resolutions. By utilizing numerous computer science techniques to improve the scalability of training, we have for the first time developed a general flow model that accounts for the pore-structure and corresponding physical phenomena at scales from Angstrom to the micrometer. Using synthetic computational domains for training, our ML model exhibits strong performance (R 2 = 0.9) when tested on extremely diverse real domains at multiple scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Learning a General Model of Single Phase Flow in Complex 3D Porous Media

Modeling effective transport properties of 3D porous media, such as permeability, at multiple scales is challenging as a result of the combined complexity of the pore structures and fluid physics—in particular, confinement effects which vary across the nanoscale to the microscale. While numerical simulation is possible, the computational cost is prohibitive for realistic domains, which are large and complex. Although machine learning (ML) models have been proposed to circumvent simulation, none so far has simultaneously accounted for heterogeneous 3D structures, fluid confinement effects, and multiple simulation resolutions. By utilizing numerous computer science techniques to improve the scalability of training, we have for the first time developed a general flow model that accounts for the pore-structure and corresponding physical phenomena at scales from Angstrom to the micrometer. Using synthetic computational domains for training, our ML model exhibits strong performance (R 2 = 0.9) when tested on extremely diverse real domains at multiple scales.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Leveraging Large Language Models for Real-World Data Evidence: A Framework for Automated Treatment Extraction and Data Harmonization

Background: The ability to comprehensively collect treatment information from cancer patient medical records would enable studies to evaluate real-world benefits and risks tied to specific treatments. Currently, it is difficult to system- atically collect high-quality treatment information because it is often stored in unstructured text. Manually extracting and standardizing drug and regimen data is time-intensive. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) offer a potential solution for automated extraction of structured treatment information from clinical text. Objective: This study systematically evaluates the utility of four LLMs from the Llama family for automated extraction of oncology treatment information from clinical text. This information can guide researchers using cancer registry data to provide insights into cancer care and outcomes beyond clinical trials. Methods: Four instruction-tuned Llama models with varying parameter counts (1B, 3B, 8B, and 70B) were evaluated for their ability to extract treatment information from clinical documents. A unified oncology knowledge base integrating seven major public data sources was developed to standardize and normalize extracted entities—a critical step for harmonizing data from diverse sources. Extracted treatment data were compared against expert-annotated ground truth. Model performance was assessed using accuracy metrics (Precision, Recall, F1-Score) and opera- tional feasibility metrics, including processing speed and structural compliance of the output. Results: A strong positive correlation was observed between model size and extraction accuracy. F1-score improved from 0.609 for the 1B model to 0.710 (3B), 0.807 (8B), and 0.828 (70B). While larger models demonstrated superior accuracy and compliance, they incurred higher computational costs. The modest performance difference between 8B and 70B suggests diminishing returns with increasing model size. Conclusions: LLMs represent a viable technology for automating oncology treatment extraction. The 8B-parameter model emerged as a highly effective option, balancing high accuracy and computational efficiency. Selecting an appropriate LLM for deployment in cancer registries involves a trade-off between desired accuracy and available operational resources. Harmonizing extracted entities with the oncology knowledge base facilitates standardized integration into common data models, enhancing data quality for real-world evidence analyses.

artificial intelligence↗

A hybrid surrogate modeling framework for the Digital Twin of a Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR)

While nuclear energy is a non-greenhouse-gas emitting energy source, expensive operational costs due to the high-level of safety requirements decreases their competitiveness in the sustainable energy market. Advanced reactor concepts paired with Digital Twins aim to increase the commercialization gains of nuclear energy by reducing operational costs, increasing reactor reliability and enhancing power generation. To support Digital Twin tasks such as real-time autonomous control, proactive maintenance monitoring or optimizing power demand operations, a fast and accurate virtual representation of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is required. The computational cost of high-fidelity, physics-based models are unsuitable for real-time analysis or scalability. Here, in this work, a hybrid surrogate modeling framework is developed fora Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) that leverages physics-inspired models for key reactor components and uses data-driven methods for rapid system state space prediction. The Xenon reactivity feedback model is integrated to inform the surrogate model about the reactor core and the homologous pump theory model is the basis for representing pump degradation. Using a detailed, two dimensional thermal hydraulics model to generate data on the FHR, we train a network of Vectorized Autoregressive Moving-Average with eXogenous input (VARMAX) models to predict the remaining state values. The result is a surrogate model that provides a detailed reactor state representation of 41 system states and a pump degradation analysis. The framework is applied to Load Follows profiles, yielding high accuracy and a speedup that is more than 4000x faster compared to the higher- fidelity thermal hydraulics model, enabling real-time operational intelligence and applications in long horizon predictions. While the surrogate model framework is demonstrated for the particular case of FHR, the hybrid physical/data-driven modeling approach including the network of surrogates and the underlying modularity has the potential to be applied to other physical asset systems.

Digital Twins↗

Numerically exact configuration interaction at quadrillion-determinant scale

The combinatorial growth of configuration interaction (CI) has long limited this formally exact quantum chemistry method to only the smallest molecules. Here, we report a numerically exact CI calculation exceeding one quadrillion (10 15 ) determinants, made possible by a lossless categorical compression strategy within the small-tensor-product distributed active space (STP-DAS) framework. This approach overcomes the traditional memory bottlenecks of CI by a numerically exact compression of the wavefunction representation and reformulating the most computationally demanding matrix–vector operations. Using this method, we performed a fully relativistic CI calculation of the ground state of HBrTe with over 10 15 complex-valued determinants in just 34.5 h on 1000 computing nodes—the largest CI calculation ever reported. We further achieved fast computation for systems with hundreds of billions of determinants on only a few compute nodes. Extensive benchmarks confirm that the method retains full numerical exactness while cutting memory and computational cost by orders of magnitude. Compared to previous state-of-the-art CI calculations, this work achieves a 1000 times increase in CI space, a 10 6 -fold increase in floating-point operations performed, and a 10 6 -fold improvement in computational speed.

Computational chemistry↗

Randomized Algorithms for Linear Solvers

Recently, randomized algorithms in numerical linear algebra, specifically those centered around random sketching, have gained traction in primarily theoretical research due to their potential to significantly reduce problem dimensionality at the cost of an O(1) multiplicative distortion factor. It has been assumed that this sketching can be done efficiently, but thorough investigation into how precisely to do it has been neglected. Moreover, the theory-based community has argued for sketching’s ability to reduce computational cost via complexity analysis, but has not researched how it affects the stability of the algorithms. At Sandia, efficient linear solvers that scale well on modern HPC architectures while maintaining stability are imperative for practical applications. In this LDRD, we developed a random sketching strategy that is substantially faster than existing ones, and demonstrate its superior performance in practice on a NVIDIA H100 GPU. Moreover, we show how this can be used to significantly outperform existing linear least squares solvers while improving the solver’s stability as well. Additionally, we demonstrate how this sketching strategy can be used to make a fast, stable QR factorization that can subsequently be used in s-step and block Krylov solvers. Finally, we incorporate a sketching-based block orthogonalization scheme into s-step GMRES, which is stable and faster than existing approaches on the Perlmutter supercomputer.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Predicting Unreinforced Fabric Mechanical Behavior with Recurrent Neural Networks

Unreinforced woven fabrics are widely employed in various high-performance applications, including parachute deployment systems, airbags, and ballistic armor. The analysis of such materials is inherently complex due to the multiscale structure of these materials, and the dependence of macroscale behavior on changes that occur at lower scales. Previously, NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) showed its capability in predicting unreinforced fabric behavior at the macroscale by capturing finite rotations that occur at the mesoscale. Though effective, the tool can face high computational cost for large, complex problems, motivating the need for the development of a surrogate model that can capture the same behavior. A recurrent neural network (RNN) was developed and trained on virtual NASMAT data to mimic the physics-based solutions while improving the computational runtime. The architecture of the RNN to best simulate the fabric behavior was carefully crafted based on heuristic knowledge of predicting physics-based temporal data, manual hyperparameter case studies, and Hyperband optimization.. The resultant model was able to predict a variety of stress-strain curves for fabrics with different mesoscale geometries, and was further validated by comparing to experimental data for the K706 style Kevlar plain-weave fabric, demonstrating the ability of the model to effectively capture the geometric changes in the fabric without explicitly calculating them, as is done in NASMAT. Furthermore, the tool showed its ability to improve on the runtime by a factor of 10 for fabric solutions compared to the multiscale tool, which would further enable the simulation of complex loading scenarios on unreinforced fabrics.

Fabric↗

Machine Learning Approaches for Rare-Earth Silicate Environmental Barrier Coating Thermochemical and Thermomechanical Property Predictions

Environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) are a necessary enabling technology for the transition from superalloys to silicon carbide (SiC) ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in gas turbine engines for increased efficiency and decreased fuel costs. SiC-based CMCs are prone to oxidation-based degradation in the engine hot section, and rare-earth (RE) silicates are promising candidates for EBCs due to their close thermal expansion match to the composite substrate and oxidation resistance. However, the design of EBCs is hindered by the large chemical space of candidate materials and the difficulty in obtaining material properties for engineering optimization. This is especially difficult as research continues into mixed-cation or “high-entropy” RE silicates. First-principles computational methods such as density functional theory (DFT) are highly effective at calculating material properties to guide coating design but are limited by their computational cost. Atomistic simulations have the potential to both accelerate property calculations and expand the properties able to be calculated due to their lower computational compared to DFT. However, they require interatomic potentials (IAPs) specific to the material system of interest, and, to our knowledge, there are no suitable IAPs for RE silicates. Machine learning (ML) is a promising technique to accelerate material property predictions indirectly by generating IAPs for atomistic simulations or via direct prediction. In this work, we present two ML approaches to accelerate the calculation of RE silicate properties relevant to EBC design: 1) a ML-derived interatomic potential (IAP) for atomistic simulations of yttrium disilicate (Y2Si2O7) from DFT training data, and 2) a neural network (NN) model to directly predict thermochemical properties of RE silicates and oxides directly from easily obtainable unit cell parameters. Classical MD simulations using the IAP yield lattice properties and bond lengths in good agreement with both DFT and experimental results from x-ray diffraction. Thermodynamic properties calculated using the finite-displacement phonon method and quasi-harmonic approximation were orders of magnitude faster than DFT with good agreement to the DFT results. The IAP was also used to calculate properties such as coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) that require large simulation supercells and are therefore difficult with DFT. The IAP correctly predicted the anisotropic nature of the CTE in three different phases of Y2Si2O7. The NN model predicts constant pressure heat capacity, Cp, orders of magnitude faster than DFT calculations, which can enable its use as a surrogate model for multiscale simulations. The two methods presented in this work demonstrate the utility of ML for accelerating the prediction of RE silicate properties, which can in turn accelerate EBC design and optimization.

machine learning↗

Incorporating Coverage-Dependent Reaction Barriers into First-Principles-Based Microkinetic Models: Approaches and Challenges

Mean-field microkinetic models (MKMs) are appealing for their relatively facile construction, computational tractability, and high-throughput catalyst screening capabilities. As such, they will continue to be a valuable tool for materials design in heterogeneous catalysis even as the field aims to describe more complex systems. Numerous prior reports have provided the groundwork for constructing first-principles-based MKMs, including the analysis of strategies for incorporating lateral interactions into thermodynamic parameters (e.g., adsorption energies). Yet, there remains a need for concerted dialogue on methods for calculating and incorporating coverage-dependent kinetic parameters into MKMs. In this Perspective, we assess strategies for doing so, including the corresponding key physical implications and computational challenges. Here, we emphasize that decoupling thermodynamic and kinetic parameters within MKMs can violate thermodynamic consistency and risk unphysical solutions. For some reactions and catalyst materials, scaling relationships can predict coverage-dependent activation energies, but there are several exceptions evident in the literature, indicating that this approach is not universally applicable and that the field could benefit from research aimed at elucidating the limitations. Conducting high-coverage transition state searches is a rigorous but computationally costly strategy, and the effects of various methods for mitigating this cost on resulting energetics have yet to be broadly explored and validated. The goal of this Perspective is to generate discussion on and inspire focused research into the physical relevance of approaches for describing coverage-dependent reaction barriers in MKMs, including the development of computationally tractable methodologies, to advance the applicability of MKMs across diverse reaction chemistries and conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Task-oriented machine learning surrogates for tipping points of agent-based models

We present a machine learning framework bridging manifold learning, neural networks, Gaussian processes, and Equation-Free multiscale approach, for the construction of different types of effective reduced order models from detailed agent-based simulators and the systematic multiscale numerical analysis of their emergent dynamics. The specific tasks of interest here include the detection of tipping points, and the uncertainty quantification of rare events near them. Our illustrative examples are an event-driven, stochastic financial market model describing the mimetic behavior of traders, and a compartmental stochastic epidemic model on an Erdös-Rényi network. We contrast the pros and cons of the different types of surrogate models and the effort involved in learning them. Importantly, the proposed framework reveals that, around the tipping points, the emergent dynamics of both benchmark examples can be effectively described by a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation, thus revealing the intrinsic dimensionality of the normal form of the specific type of the tipping point. This allows a significant reduction in the computational cost of the tasks of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SO(3)-invariant PCA with application to molecular data

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a fundamental technique for dimensionality reduction and denoising; however, its application to three-dimensional data with arbitrary orientations -- common in structural biology -- presents significant challenges. A naive approach requires augmenting the dataset with many rotated copies of each sample, incurring prohibitive computational costs. In this paper, we extend PCA to 3D volumetric datasets with unknown orientations by developing an efficient and principled framework for SO(3)-invariant PCA that implicitly accounts for all rotations without explicit data augmentation. By exploiting underlying algebraic structure, we demonstrate that the computation involves only the square root of the total number of covariance entries, resulting in a substantial reduction in complexity. We validate the method on real-world molecular datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness and opening up new possibilities for large-scale, high-dimensional reconstruction problems.

Fraiman, Michael [Tel Aviv Univ., Tel Aviv (Israel↗

CAFE AU LAIT: Compute-Aware Federated Augmented Low-Rank AI Training

Federated finetuning is crucial for unlocking the knowledge embedded in pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs) when data are geographically distributed across clients. Unlike finetuning with data from a single institution, federated finetuning allows collaboration across multiple institutions, enabling the utilization of diverse and decentralized datasets while preserving data privacy. Given the high computing costs of LLM training and the emphasis on energy efficiency in Federated Learning (FL), Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has emerged as a widely adopted algorithm due to its significantly reduced number of trainable parameters. However, this assumes that all data silos have the necessary computing resources to compute local updates of LLMs. Nevertheless, in practice, the computing resources across clients are highly heterogeneous: while some may have access to hundreds of GPUs, others might have limited or no GPU access. Recently, federated finetuning using synthetic data has been proposed, allowing clients to participate in a collaborative training run without training LLMs locally. However, our experimental results reveal a performance gap between models trained using synthetic data and those trained using local updates. Motivated by the observed heterogeneity in computing resources and the performance gap, we propose a novel two-stage algorithm that leverages the storage and computing capabilities of a strong server. In the first stage, under the coordination of the strong server, clients with limited computing resources collaborate to generate synthetic data, which is transferred to and stored on the strong server. In the second stage, the strong server uses this synthetic data on behalf of the resource-constrained clients to perform federated LoRA finetuning alongside clients with sufficient computing resources. This approach ensures that all clients can participate in the finetuning process. Experimental results demonstrate that incorporating local updates from even a small fraction of clients improves performance compared to using synthetic data for all clients. Furthermore, we incorporate the Gaussian mechanism in both stages to guarantee client-level differential privacy.

Wang, Jiayi [ORNL]↗

Theoretical Prediction of Thermal Expansion Anisotropy for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 Environmental Barrier Coatings Using a Deep Neural Network Potential and Comparison to Experiment

Environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) are an enabling technology for silicon carbide (SiC)-based ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in extreme environments such as gas turbine engines. However, development of new coating systems is hindered by the large design space and difficulty in predicting properties for these materials. Density Functional Theory (DFT) has successfully been used to model and predict some thermodynamic and thermo-mechanical properties of high-temperature ceramics for EBCs, although these calculations are challenging due to their high computational costs. In this work, we use machine learning to train a deep neural network potential (DNP) for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 , which is then applied to calculate thermodynamic and thermo-mechanical properties at near-DFT accuracy much faster and using less computational resources than DFT. We use this DNP to predict phonon-based thermodynamic properties of Y 2 Si 2 O 7 with good agreement to DFT and experiments. We also utilize the DNP to calculate the anisotropic, lattice direction-dependent coefficients of thermal expansion (CTEs) for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 . Molecular dynamics trajectories using the DNP correctly demonstrate accurate prediction of the anisotropy of the CTE in good agreement with diffraction experiments. In the future, this DNP could be applied to accelerate additional property calculations for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 compared to DFT or experiments.

rare earth silicates↗

Efficient data-driven regression for reduced-order modeling of spatial pattern formation

We present an efficient data-driven regression approach for constructing reduced-order models (ROMs) of reaction-diffusion systems exhibiting pattern formation. The ROMs are learned non-intrusively from available training data of physically accurate numerical simulations. The method can be applied to general nonlinear systems through the use of polynomial model form, while not requiring knowledge of the underlying physical model, governing equations, or numerical solvers. The process of learning ROMs is posed as a low-cost least-squares problem in a reduced-order subspace identified via Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD). Numerical experiments on classical pattern-forming systems–including the Schnakenberg and Mimura–Tsujikawa models–demonstrate that higher-order surrogate models significantly improve prediction accuracy while maintaining low computational cost. The proposed method provides a flexible, non-intrusive model reduction framework, well suited for the analysis of complex spatio-temporal pattern formation phenomena.

Data-driven modeling↗