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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Global Explainability of A Deep Abstaining Classifier for Cancer Pathology Reports

We present a global explainability method to characterize sources of errors in a real-world multitask deep abstaining classifier (DAC), in the context of cancer histology prediction. Our multitask classifier, currently deployed for automated annotation of cancer pathology reports from NCI-SEER registries, was trained and evaluated on 1.04 million hand-annotated samples and makes simultaneous predictions of cancer site, subsite, histology, laterality, and behavior for each report. The DAC framework enables the model to abstain on ambiguous reports and confusing classes to achieve the target accuracy on the retained (non-abstained) samples, but at the cost of decreased coverage. Requiring 97% accuracy on the histology task caused our model to retain only 22% of all samples, mostly the less ambiguous and common classes. Local explainability with the GradInp technique provided a computationally efficient way of obtaining contextual reasoning for hundreds of thousands of individual predictions. Our method, involving dimensionality reduction of approximately 13000 aggregated local explanations (ALE), offers a tractable path to true global explainability. It enabled identification of sources of errors in histology classification, globally, as hierarchical complexity among classes, label noise, insufficient information, and conflicting evidence. This suggests several strategies for iterative improvement of our DAC, including well-designed exclusion criteria, focused annotation, and reduced penalties for errors involving hierarchically related classes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enriched immersed finite element and isogeometric analysis: algorithms and data structures

Immersed finite element methods provide a convenient analysis framework for problems involving geometrically complex domains, such as those found in topology optimization and microstructures for engineered materials. However, their implementation remains a major challenge due to, among other things, the need to apply nontrivial stabilization schemes and generate custom quadrature rules. This article introduces the robust and computationally efficient algorithms and data structures comprising an immersed finite element preprocessing framework. The input to the preprocessor consists of a background mesh and one or more geometries defined on its domain. The output is structured into groups of elements with custom quadrature rules formatted such that common finite element assembly routines may be used without or with only minimal modifications. The key to the preprocessing framework is the construction of material topology information, concurrently with the generation of a quadrature rule, which is then used to perform enrichment and generate stabilization rules. While the algorithmic framework applies to a wide range of immersed finite element methods using different types of meshes, integration, and stabilization schemes, the preprocessor is presented within the context of the extended isogeometric analysis. This method utilizes a structured B-spline mesh, a generalized Heaviside enrichment strategy considering the material layout within individual basis functions’ supports, and face-oriented ghost stabilization. Using a set of examples, the effectiveness of the enrichment and stabilization strategies is demonstrated alongside the preprocessor’s robustness in geometric edge cases. Additionally, the performance and parallel scalability of the implementation are evaluated.

Computer implementation↗
DOE OSTI2025

A comparison of surrogate constitutive models for viscoplastic creep simulation of HT-9 steel

Mechanistic microstructure-informed constitutive models for the mechanical response of polycrystals are a cornerstone of computational materials science. However, as these models become increasingly more complex – often involving coupled differential equations describing the effect of specific deformation modes – their associated computational costs can become prohibitive, particularly in optimization or uncertainty quantification tasks that require numerous model evaluations. To address this challenge, surrogate constitutive models that balance accuracy and computational efficiency are highly desirable. Data-driven surrogate models, that learn the constitutive relation directly from data, have emerged as a promising solution. In this work, we develop two local surrogate models for the viscoplastic response of a steel: a piecewise response surface method and a mixture of experts model. These surrogates are designed to adapt to complex material behavior, which may vary with material parameters or operating conditions. The surrogate constitutive models are applied to creep simulations of HT-9 steel, an alloy of considerable interest to the nuclear energy sector due to its high tolerance to radiation damage, using training data generated from viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) simulations. In conclusion, we define a set of test metrics to numerically assess the accuracy of our surrogate models for predicting viscoplastic material behavior, and show that the mixture of experts model outperforms the piecewise response surface method in terms of accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Numerical simulation of vortex-induced vibration response of a single IEA 10-MW wind turbine blade

Three-dimensional simulation of vortex-induced vibration (VIV) of a single International Energy Agency (IEA) 10-MW reference wind turbine blade with a length of 97.325 m is performed using the ExaWind stack, an open-source suite of codes. This study aims to illustrate the spanwise VIV response characteristics and cross-validate the results with an existing commercial framework. Five near-body meshes and three time steps are selected for the convergence study. To improve computational efficiency, several VIV triggering methods are also compared to shorten the VIV development period. The ExaWind-based VIV simulation strategy for a single IEA 10-MW blade is determined. First, the modal shape is validated against published results. Then, spanwise VIV responses of four blade configurations under a fixed and varied incoming flow velocity are analyzed. Results show that the VIV response is dominated by the first edgewise (second overall) mode. Little first-mode contributions appear near the second-mode node, producing a pi phase jump, and a higher harmonics response occurs near the blade root. Rotational degrees of freedom are minor compared with translational motion. The response versus reduced velocity is analyzed, showing a two-branch behavior similar to that of VIV for a bluff cylinder. Across all tested cases, the dominant frequency remains locked to the natural frequency of the second mode with no observed desynchronization. A mild deviation is observed for the case of 90-degree pitch and 310-degree azimuth rotation near a reduced velocity of 6, which will be examined with additional cases in future work. These findings indicate that severe VIV responses can arise under specific configurations and flow conditions, thereby increasing the potential for VIV fatigue damage and requiring greater attention during operation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking the performance of uncertainty quantification methods for neural network-based interatomic potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) continue to gain popularity as accurate, computationally efficient replacements for traditional, physics-based interatomic potentials and expensive ab initio methods. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML-IAPs is a growing area of research as UQ is critical in many applications of IAPs, such as developing curated datasets, active learning-based data augmentation, self-improving models, and estimating the uncertainty of molecular dynamics simulations. In this paper, we construct and benchmark a series of different neural network potentials (NNPs) with varying network architectures to determine the performance of these models with respect to both the mean and uncertainty calibration error. Each NNP method is specifically designed to predict either epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty with particular focus on the differences in behavior between the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates. We benchmark these methods using multiple datasets common in the ML-IAP literature. The results show that the aleatoric uncertainty from single-shot model architectures is a competitive alternative to ensemble-based epistemic uncertainty predictions in regions of sufficient data-density. However, in regions where the representative data is sparse, aleatoric uncertainty models tend to overpredict and epistemic methods tend to underpredict the actual model error. We conclude that the type of UQ is crucial when discussing performance of probabilistic model results as different methods have different performance characteristics depending on the regime in which they are evaluated. Therefore, the type of UQ method should be carefully evaluated against both the data characteristics and requirements for the intended application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bias-Variance Trade-Off in Physics-Informed Neural Networks with Randomized Smoothing for High-Dimensional PDEs

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have triggered a paradigm shift in scientific computing, leveraging mesh-free properties and robust approximation capabilities. While proving effective for low-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs), the computational cost of PINNs remains a hurdle in high-dimensional scenarios. This is particularly pronounced when computing high-order and high-dimensional derivatives in the physics-informed loss. Randomized Smoothing PINN (RS-PINN) introduces Gaussian noise for stochastic smoothing of the original neural net model, enabling the use of Monte Carlo methods for derivative approximation, which eliminates the need for costly automatic differentiation. Despite its computational efficiency, especially in the approximation of high-dimensional derivatives, RS-PINN introduces biases in both loss and gradients, negatively impacting convergence, especially when coupled with stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithms. We present a comprehensive analysis of biases in RS-PINN, attributing them to the nonlinearity of the Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss as well as the intrinsic nonlinearity of the PDE itself. We propose tailored bias correction techniques, delineating their application based on the order of PDE nonlinearity. The derivation of an unbiased RS-PINN allows for a detailed examination of its advantages and disadvantages compared to the biased version. Specifically, the biased version has a lower variance and runs faster than the unbiased version, but it is less accurate due to the bias. To optimize the bias-variance trade-off, we combine the two approaches in a hybrid method that balances the rapid convergence of the biased version with the high accuracy of the unbiased version. In addition to methodological contributions, we present an enhanced implementation of RS-PINN. Extensive experiments on diverse high-dimensional PDEs, including Fokker-Planck, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB), viscous Burgers’, Allen-Cahn, and Sine-Gordon equations, illustrate the bias-variance trade-off and highlight the effectiveness of the hybrid RS-PINN. Empirical guidelines are provided for selecting biased, unbiased, or hybrid versions, depending on the dimensionality and nonlinearity of the specific PDE problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cosmological constraints from a joint DESI DR1 Full-Shape and DR2 BAO

We present a cosmological analysis combining full-shape (FS) clustering measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) DR1 with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements from DESI DR2. To achieve a robust combination that accounts for the correlation between the two data releases, we employ the ShapeFit compression method and estimate the joint covariance using EZmocks. This compressed approach inherently mitigates the prior volume effects that have previously dominated Bayesian constraints from DESI data with minimal external priors. Consequently, we obtain — for the first time within a Bayesian framework — reliable DESI-only constraints on extensions to ΛCDM using only a Big Bang Nucleosynthesis prior on the baryon density and a wide prior on the spectral index. In flat ΛCDM, we find Ω m = 0.3035 ± 0.0085, h = 0.6876 ± 0.0059, and σ 8 = 0.822 ± 0.034. For the w 0 w a CDM dynamical dark energy model, we measure w 0 = -0.49 ± 0.25 and w a = -1.52 ± 0.77, improving constraints by ∼ 30% relative to the analogous DR1 measurement and reducing the discrepancy with ΛCDM to 1.4σ when compared to BAO only analyses. We also report competitive limits on the sum of neutrino masses and spatial curvature. This work demonstrates that the ShapeFit compression provides a prior-robust and computationally efficient pathway to constrain beyond-ΛCDM physics with large-scale structure.

baryon acoustic oscillations↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regional Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations for Southern California With EQSIM: Insights From the 2008 Chino Hills, 2024 Highland Park, and 2021 Carson Earthquakes

This study presents physics-based, 3D simulations using the EQSIM framework for several earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The primary objective was to assess the ability of deterministic physics-based ground motion simulations to reproduce the observed motions from historical events. The selected events included the mathematical equation M w 5.4 2008 Chino Hills, the mathematical equation M w 4.4 2024 Highland Park, and the mathematical equation M w 4.3 2021 Carson events. The simulated motions were evaluated by comparing the recorded and simulated seismograms, as well as the Fourier amplitude spectra, across multiple seismic stations. The SCEC 3D velocity model, CVM-S4.26.M01, was used to represent the regional geology, and ground motion simulations were carried out with a resolution of up to 5 Hz. The results indicate that the simulated motions captured the recorded motions up to approximately 4 Hz. While careful iterations regarding source parameters and corner frequencies were required, and, for the case of the Highland Park event, some of the near-source stations had relatively low accuracy, the present study established a positive step toward the utilization of physics-based simulations in practical applications. The computational efficiencies exhibited by EQSIM, especially on GPU clusters, further supported this assertion, as wall-clock times of simulations involving more than 10 billion grid points were as low as mathematical equation minutes. This permits ensemble simulations for a considered scenario event so that modeling uncertainties (e.g., source and geology) can be bracketed.

EQSIM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning for accuracy in density functional approximations

Machine learning techniques have found their way into computational chemistry as indispensable tools to accelerate atomistic simulations and materials design. In addition, machine learning approaches hold the potential to boost the predictive power of computationally efficient electronic structure methods, such as density functional theory, to chemical accuracy and to correct for fundamental errors in density functional approaches. In this paper, recent progress in applying machine learning to improve the accuracy of density functional and related approximations is reviewed. Promises and challenges in devising machine learning models transferable between different chemistries and materials classes are discussed with the help of examples applying promising models to systems far outside their training sets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solving a class of infinite-dimensional tensor eigenvalue problems by translational invariant tensor ring approximations

Here, we examine a method for solving an infinite-dimensional tensor eigenvalue problem Hx = λx, where the infinite-dimensional symmetric matrix H exhibits a translational invariant structure. We provide a formulation of this type of problem from a numerical linear algebra point of view and describe how a power method applied to e -Ht is used to obtain an approximation to the desired eigenvector. This infinite-dimensional eigenvector is represented in a compact way by a translational invariant infinite Tensor Ring (iTR). Low rank approximation is used to keep the cost of subsequent power iterations bounded while preserving the iTR structure of the approximate eigenvector. We show how the averaged Rayleigh quotient of an iTR eigenvector approximation can be efficiently computed and introduce a projected residual to monitor its convergence. In the numerical examples, we illustrate that the norm of this projected iTR residual can also be used to automatically modify the time step to ensure accurate and rapid convergence of the power method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing climate pathways using feature importance on echo state networks

The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States listed climate change as a serious threat to national security. Climate intervention methods, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, have been proposed as mitigation strategies, but the downstream effects of such actions on a complex climate system are not well understood. The development of algorithmic techniques for quantifying relationships between source and impact variables related to a climate event (i.e., a climate pathway) would help inform policy decisions. Data-driven deep learning models have become powerful tools for modeling highly nonlinear relationships and may provide a route to characterize climate variable relationships. In this paper, we explore the use of an echo state network (ESN) for characterizing climate pathways. ESNs are a computationally efficient neural network variation designed for temporal data, and recent work proposes ESNs as a useful tool for forecasting spatiotemporal climate data. However, ESNs are noninterpretable black-box models along with other neural networks. The lack of model transparency poses a hurdle for understanding variable relationships. We address this issue by developing feature importance methods for ESNs in the context of spatiotemporal data to quantify variable relationships captured by the model. We conduct a simulation study to assess and compare the feature importance techniques, and we demonstrate the approach on reanalysis climate data. In the climate application, we consider a time period that includes the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo. This event was a significant stratospheric aerosol injection, which acts as a proxy for an anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection. Furthermore, we are able to use the proposed approach to characterize relationships between pathway variables associated with this event that agree with relationships previously identified by climate scientists.

black-box models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Heterogeneous Micromechanical Properties of Biological Tissues via Physics–Informed Neural Networks

The heterogeneous micromechanical properties of biological tissues have profound implications across diverse medical and engineering domains. However, identifying full-field heterogeneous elastic properties of soft materials using traditional engineering approaches is fundamentally challenging due to difficulties in estimating local stress fields. Recently, there has been a growing interest in data-driven models for learning full-field mechanical responses, such as displacement and strain, from experimental or synthetic data. However, research studies on inferring full-field elastic properties of materials, a more challenging problem, are scarce, particularly for large deformation, hyperelastic materials. Here, a physics-informed machine learning approach is proposed to identify the elasticity map in nonlinear, large deformation hyperelastic materials. This study reports the prediction accuracies and computational efficiency of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) in inferring the heterogeneous elasticity maps across materials with structural complexity that closely resemble real tissue microstructure, such as brain, tricuspid valve, and breast cancer tissues. Further, the improved architecture is applied to three hyperelastic constitutive models: Neo-Hookean, Mooney Rivlin, and Gent. Furthermore, the improved network architecture consistently produces accurate estimations of heterogeneous elasticity maps, even when there is up to 10% noise present in the training data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implementation and Validation of a Generalized Actuator Disk Parameterization for Wind Turbine Simulations Within the FastEddy Model

ABSTRACT Fast and accurate large‐eddy simulation (LES) of the atmospheric boundary layer plays a crucial role in advancing wind energy research. Long‐duration wind farm studies at turbine‐resolving scales have become increasingly important to understand the intricate interactions between large wind farms and the atmospheric boundary layer. However, the prohibitive computational cost of these turbulence‐ and turbine‐resolving simulations has precluded such modeling to be exercised on a regular basis. To that end, we implement and validate the generalized actuator disk (GAD) model in the computationally efficient, graphics processing unit (GPU)–resident, LES model FastEddy. We perform single‐turbine simulations under three atmospheric stabilities (neutral, unstable, and stable) and compare them against observations from the Scaled Wind Farm Technology (SWiFT) facility and other LES codes from the recent Wakebench turbine wake model benchmark. Our idealized LES results agree well with observed wake velocity deficit and downstream recovery across stability regimes. Turbine response in terms of rotational speed, generated power, torque, and thrust coefficient are well predicted across stability regimes and are consistent with the LES results from the benchmark. The FastEddy simulations are found to be at least two orders of magnitude more efficient than the traditional CPU‐based LES models, opening the door for realistic LES simulations of full wind plants as a viable standard practice.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robustness of Deep Learning Classification to Adversarial Input on GPUs: Asynchronous Parallel Accumulation Is a Source of Vulnerability

The ability of machine learning (ML) classification models to resist small, targeted input perturbations—known as adversarial attacks—is a key measure of their safety and reliability. We show that floating-point non associativity (FPNA) coupled with asynchronous parallel programming on GPUs is sufficient to result in misclassification, without any perturbation to the input. Additionally, we show that this misclassification is particularly significant for inputs close to the decision boundary and that standard adversarial robustness results may be overestimated up to 4.6 when not considering machine-level details. We first study a linear classifier, before focusing on standard Graph Neural Network (GNN) architectures and datasets used in robustness assessments. We develop a novel black-box attack using Bayesian optimization to discover external workloads that can change the instruction scheduling which bias the output of reductions on GPUs and reliably lead to misclassification. Motivated by these results, we present a new learnable permutation (LP) gradient-based approach to learning floating-point operation orderings that lead to misclassifications. The LP approach provides a worst-case estimate in a computationally efficient manner, avoiding the need to run identical experiments tens of thousands of times over a potentially large set of possible GPU states or architectures. Finally, using instrumentation-based testing, we investigate parallel reduction ordering across different GPU architectures under external background workloads, when utilizing multi-GPU virtualization, and when applying power capping. Our results demonstrate that parallel reduction ordering varies significantly across architectures under the first two conditions, substantially increasing the search space required to fully test the effects of this parallel scheduler-based vulnerability. These results and the methods developed here can help to include machine-level considerations into adversarial robustness assessments, which can make a difference in safety and mission critical applications.

Shanmugavelu, Sanjif [Maxeler Technologies, a Groq↗
DOE OSTI2025

The phase of the gravitational path integral

The gravitational path integral on S 2 × S 2 can be interpreted either as evaluating a contribution to the norm of the Hartle-Hawking wavefunction conditional on spatial S 1 × S 2 topology, or the pair creation rate of black holes in de Sitter. Both interpretations are distinguished at the quantum level. The former requires the path integral to be real and the latter to be imaginary. We develop a formalism to efficiently compute the phase of the gravitational path integral on Einstein spaces. We apply it to a broad class of spacetimes and in particular S 2 × S D−2 , finding it to be real and positive. We generalize some of the analysis to cases with charge and rotation.

AdS-CFT correspondence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating uncertainty quantification in incremental dynamic analysis using dimension reduction-based surrogate modeling

We propose a surrogate modeling framework based on dimension reduction to facilitate the quantification of seismic risk of structural systems in performance-based earthquake engineering. The framework adopts incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) for addressing hazard variability, and promotes significant computational efficiency improvement for propagating epistemic uncertainties associated with the structural models. It utilizes both linear and nonlinear dimension reduction approaches, equipped with inverse mappings, to learn a functional between the input parameter space (e.g., the epistemic uncertainties of the structure) to the high-dimensional output space created through the IDA implementation across different ground motions and seismic intensity levels. Polynomial chaos expansion is adopted as the surrogate model to learn this functional in the reduced space. A nine-story steel moment-resisting frame with uncertain structural properties is used as a testbed. Furthermore, we select the seismic fragility curves as a measure of the structure’s seismic performance, since it provides an estimate of the probability of entering specified damage states for given levels of ground shaking.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future

Climate assessments consolidate our understanding of possible future climate conditions as represented by climate projections, which are largely based on the output of global climate models. Over the past 30 years, the scientific insights gained from climate projections have been refined through model structural improvements, emerging constraints on climate feedbacks, and increased computational efficiency. Within the same period, the process of assessing and evaluating information from climate projections has become more defined and targeted to inform users. As the size and audience of climate assessments has expanded, the framing, relevancy, and accessibility of projections has become increasingly important. This paper reviews the use of climate projections in national climate assessments (NCA) while highlighting challenges and opportunities that have emerged over time. Reflections and lessons learned address the continuous process to understand the broadening assessment audience and evolving user needs. Insights for future NCA development include (1) identifying benchmarks and standards for evaluating downscaled datasets, (2) expanding efforts to gather research gaps and user needs to inform how climate projections are presented in the assessment (3) providing practitioner guidance on the use, interpretation, and reporting of climate projections and uncertainty to better inform decision-making.

Assessment↗