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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2022

An Application of a Modified Beta Factor Method for the Analysis of Software Common Cause Failures

This paper presents an approach for modeling software common cause failures (CCFs) within digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems. CCFs consist of a concurrent failure between two or more components due to a shared failure cause and coupling mechanism. This work emphasizes the importance of identifying software-centric attributes related to the coupling mechanisms necessary for simultaneous failures of redundant software components. The groups of components that share coupling mechanisms are called common cause component groups (CCCGs). Most CCF models rely on operational data as the basis for establishing CCCG parameters and predicting CCFs. This work is motivated by two primary concerns: (1) a lack of operational and CCF data for estimating software CCF model parameters; and (2) the need to model single components as part of multiple CCCGs simultaneously. A hybrid approach was developed to account for these concerns by leveraging existing techniques: a modified beta factor model allows single components to be placed within multiple CCCGs, while a second technique provides software-specific model parameters for each CCCG. This hybrid approach provides a means to overcome the limitations of conventional methods while offering support for design decisions under the limited data scenario.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerating Large-Format Metal Additive Manufacturing: How Controls R&D is Driving Speed, Scale, and Efficiency

This article highlights work at Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Manufacturing Demonstration Facility to develop closed-loop, feedback control for laser-wire based Directed Energy Deposition, a form of metal Big Area Additive Manufacturing (m-BAAM), a process being developed in partnership with GKN Aerospace specifically for the production of Ti-6Al-4V pre-forms for aerospace components. A large-scale structural demonstrator component is presented as a case-study in which not just control, but the entire 3D printing workflow for m-BAAM is discussed in detail, including design principles for large-format metal AM, toolpath generation, parameter development, process control, and system operation, as well as post-print net-shape geometric analysis and finish machining. In terms of control, a multi-sensor approach has been utilized to measure both layer height and melt pool size, and multiple modes of closed-loop control have been developed to manipulate process parameters (laser power, print speed, deposition rate) to control these variables. Layer height control and melt pool size control have yielded excellent local (intralayer) and global (component-level) geometry control, and the impact of melt pool size control in particular on thermal gradients and material properties is the subject of continuing research. Further, these modes of control have allowed the process to advance to higher deposition rates (exceeding 7.5 lb/hr), larger parts (1-meter scale), shorter build times, and higher overall efficiency. The control modes are examined individually, highlighting their development, demonstration, and lessons learned, and it is shown how they operate concurrently to enable the printing of a large-scale, near net shape Ti-6Al-4V component.

Gibson, Brian↗
DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting the role of Zr doping in Ni-rich layered cathodes for lithium-ion batteries

We report the realization of high performance Ni-rich layered cathodes remains a challenge because of the multiple degradation factors that concurrently operate during battery cycling. In particular, depletion of oxygen charge and consequent lattice oxygen instability at deep charge state accelerate the subsequent chemomechanical degradation mechanisms. Among the proposed methodologies, doping has proven to be effective in enhancing the cathode cycle life by stabilizing the layered structure. Herein, we achieved the electrochemically stabilized Ni-rich LiNi 0.92 Co 0.04 Mn 0.04 O 2 through Zr doping, resulting in a 15% increase of the capacity retention after 100 cycles. In-depth investigations are conducted to unveil the effects of Zr doping on the layered cathode, and in particular, the critical role of Zr doping on the lattice oxygen stability is systematically studied. By combining state-of-the-art magnetometer characterization, X-ray analysis, and first-principles calculation, we reveal that Zr doping positively contributes the to lattice oxygen stability by alleviating the oxygen charge loss at deep charge, thereby improving the cathode electrochemical reversibility. Our findings provide an insight into the Zr doping mechanism and help to design the Ni-rich layered oxides for future applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Irradiation damage concurrent challenges with RAFM and ODS steels for fusion reactor first-wall/blanket: a review

Reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) and oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) steels are the most promising candidates for fusion first-wall/blanket (FW/B) structures. The performance of these steels will deteriorate during service due to neutron damage and transmutation-induced gases, such as helium/hydrogen, at elevated operating temperatures. Here, after highlighting the operating conditions of fusion reactor concepts and a brief overview, the main irradiation-induced degradation challenges associated with RAFM/ODS steels are discussed. Their long-term degradation scenarios such as (a) low-temperature hardening embrittlement (LTHE)—including dose-temperature dependent yield stress, tensile elongations, necking ductility, test temperature effect on hardening, Charpy impact ductile-to-brittle transition temperature and fracture toughness, (b) intermediate temperature cavity swelling, (c) the effect of helium on LTHE and cavity swelling, (d) irradiation creep and (e) tritium management issues are reviewed. The potential causes of LTHE are discussed, which highlights the need for advanced characterisation techniques. The mechanical properties, including the tensile/Charpy impact of RAFM and ODS steels, are compared to show that the current generation of ODS steels also suffers from LTHE, and shows irradiation hardening up to high temperatures of ~400 °C–500 °C. To minimise this, future ODS steel development for FW/B-specific application should target materials with a lower Cr concentration (to minimise α'), and minimise other elements that could form embrittling phases under irradiation. RAFM steel-designing activities targeting improvements in creep and LTHE are reviewed. The need to better understand the synergistic effects of helium on the thermo-mechanical properties in the entire temperature range of FW/B is highlighted. Because fusion operating conditions will be complex, including stresses due to the magnetic field, primary loads like coolant pressure, secondary loads from thermal gradients, and due to spatial variation in damage levels and gas production rates, an experimentally validated multiscale modelling approach is suggested as a pathway to future reactor component designing such as for the fusion neutron science facility.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enabling off-highway diesel engine downsizing and performance improvement using electrically assisted turbocharging

Internal combustion engine (ICE) downsizing through various turbocharging configurations is generally known by the powertrain design community as an effective means to reduce frictional losses, increase waste heat recovery, and improve fuel efficiency while increasing engine power density. However, often is the case that turbocharging strategies, including variable geometry turbochargers, and regulated two-stage turbochargers, incur the performance tradeoff between transient response and fuel economy (pumping losses) at high engine speeds. For off-highway vehicles having particularly transient and high-powered duty cycles, efforts to improve this tradeoff and increase operational flexibility have turned to evaluating various electrified air system architectures. In this study, a 4.5 L diesel-ICE configured with an electrically driven compressor (eBooster ® ) is placed in series with a conventional turbocharger and integrated into a 48 V mild-hybrid powertrain architecture. The objective of this powertrain configuration is to enable engine downsizing by 34%, replacing the current 6.8 L ICE platform with the hybridized 4.5 L ICE concept. The commercial 1-D simulation software GT-SUITE is used for powertrain system development and system optimization. Development and validation of the GT-SUITE model and air system controls is concurrently supported through experimental data collection. The simulation model development includes using machine learning methods for optimizing exhaust gas dilution, injection timing, and eBooster ® power to improve steady-state and transient brake-specific fuel consumption while minimizing criteria pollutant emissions. It was found that total specific fluid consumption over the standardized non-road transient engine duty cycle could be reduced by 18% over the current 6.8 L engine by using an optimized eBoosted 4.5 L engine. The hybridized 4.5 L engine concept concurrently showed sufficient transient response capability and nearly an order of magnitude reduction in duty cycle total soot production.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing Heat Recovery with Storage: Control Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of the Time-Independent Energy Recovery Plant Using Modelica

Heat recovery in large building central plants saves energy but traditionally requires simultaneous heating and cooling. The Time-Independent Energy Recovery (TIER) plant shifts this paradigm by integrating thermal energy storage (TES) to enable heat recovery regardless of concurrent demand, offering a highly efficient, space-saving solution to achieve California’s energy goals. However, its integration of heat recovery chillers, cooling-only chillers, cooling towers, and trim air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) creates growing control and sizing complexity. To overcome this, this study employs high-fidelity Modelica dynamic simulation to validate TIER control sequences and optimize equipment sizing. We translated the written Sequences of Operation into executable Control Description Language (CDL) to test logic against sub-hourly loads. This verification workflow successfully identified and resolved critical vulnerabilities, such as thermal storage freezing and equipment short-cycling, in a virtual environment prior to physical deployment. Then, the study analyzes TIER plant performance across three simulated building types in three locations, and a real building load profile, ensuring variety in heating and cooling loads, and simultaneity factors and explores sizing rules for the TES and ASHP capacity. The analysis shows that the TIER plant operates equipment efficiently leading to a plant SCOP of around 7.5 across all scenarios, higher than a traditional ASHP plant, and a viable pathway to de-risk complex system design and control through simulation to identify optimal designs that maximize energy efficiency, minimize operational costs, and ensure robust operation in varied environmental conditions, thereby facilitating the broader adoption of such a solution for large buildings.

Zanetti, Ettore↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identifying and Tuning the In Situ Oxygen-Rich Surface of Molybdenum Nitride Electrocatalysts for Oxygen Reduction

Rigorous in situ studies of electrocatalysts are required to enable the design of higher performing materials. Nonplatinum group metals for oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) catalysis containing light elements such as O, N, and C are known to be susceptible to both ex situ and in situ oxidation, leading to challenges associated with ex situ characterization methods. We have previously shown that the bulk O content plays an important role in the activity and selectivity of Mo–N catalysts, but further understanding of the role of composition and morphological changes at the surface is needed. Here, we report the measurement of in situ surface changes to a molybdenum nitride (MoN) thin film under ORR conditions using grazing incidence X-ray absorption and reflectivity. We show that the half-wave potential of MoN can be improved by ~90 mV by potential conditioning up to 0.8 V versus RHE. Utilizing electrochemical analysis, dissolution monitoring, and surface-sensitive X-ray techniques, we show that under moderate polarization (0.3–0.7 V vs RHE) there is local ligand distortion, O incorporation, and amorphization of the MoN surface, without changes in roughness. Furthermore, with a controlled potential hold procedure, we show that the surface changes concurrent with potential conditioning are stable under ORR relevant potentials. Conversely, at higher potentials (≥0.8 V vs RHE), the film incorporates O, dissolves, and roughens, suggesting that in this higher potential regime, the performance enhancements are due to increased access to active sites. Density functional theory calculations and Pourbaix analysis provide insights into film stability and O incorporation as a function of potential. These findings coupled with in situ electrochemical surface-sensitive X-ray techniques demonstrate an approach to studying nontraditional surfaces in which we can leverage our understanding of surface dynamics to improve performance with the rational, in situ tuning of active sites.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

ARENA: Asynchronous Reconfigurable Accelerator Ring to Enable Data-Centric Parallel Computing

The next generation HPC and data centers are likely to be reconfigurable and data-centric due to the trend of hardware specialization and the emergence of data-driven applications. In this work, we propose ARENA – an asynchronous reconfigurable accelerator ring architecture as a potential scenario on how the future HPC and data centers will be like. Despite using the coarse-grained reconfigurable arrays (CGRAs) as the substrate platform, our key contribution is not only the CGRA-cluster design itself, but also the ensemble of a new architecture and programming model that enables asynchronous tasking across a cluster of reconfigurable nodes, so as to bring specialized computation to the data rather than the reverse. We presume distributed data storage without asserting any prior knowledge on the data distribution. Hardware specialization occurs at runtime when a task finds the majority of data it requires are available at the present node. In other words, we dynamically generate specialized CGRA accelerators where the data reside. The asynchronous tasking for bringing computation to data is achieved by circulating the task token, which describes the dataflow graphs to be executed for a task, among the CGRA cluster connected by a fast ring network. Evaluations on a set of HPC and data-driven applications across different domains show that ARENA can provide better parallel scalability with reduced data movement (53.9 percent). Compared with contemporary compute-centric parallel models, ARENA can bring on average 4.37× speedup. The synthesized CGRAs and their task-dispatchers only occupy 2.93mm 2 chip area under 45nm process technology and can run at 800MHz with on average 759.8mW power consumption. ARENA also supports the concurrent execution of multi-applications, offering ideal architectural support for future high-performance parallel computing and data analytics systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computer Science Research Needs for Parallel Discrete Event Simulation (PDES)

Historically, scientific computing efforts have demonstrated the clear need for, and effective use of, supercomputing with traditional time-stepped simulations. Nevertheless, there are several areas in the mission spaces of the U.S. Department of Energy and other agencies waiting to tap advanced computing research using a different, discrete event style of modeling, simulation, and analysis. These span a wide spectrum of applications including energy grid resilience, urban planning and policy, transportation science, building technologies, emergency response and planning, environmental impact analysis, computational epidemiology, Internet communications, cyber security, and cyber-physical systems, to name only a few. Even within traditional scientific applications, the role of discrete event modes of execution is increasing in the form of new event-based mathematical solvers such as quantized state integration methods and discrete-continuous hybrid system solvers. Co-design of advanced supercomputing hardware systems is another area that exploits discrete event simulation at its core for effective analyses. Complex systems, entity behaviors and interconnections play a significant role in all these applications, which are mapped to large-scale models with discrete event formulations. To make advancements in all the aforementioned scientific areas, many technical aspects need to be more thoroughly studied and deeply understood in parallel discrete event simulation (PDES). The unique dynamics inherent in a discrete event modeling approach, by their very nature, intersect and influence the entire stack of the computing system, including (a) the unique nature of the instruction sets exercised in PDES workloads without a predominance of high-precision floating point operations, (b) virtual time-constrained multi-threaded execution of many logical processes per processor, (c) extremely variable and difficult to predict network traffic characteristics, (d) interfaces and inter-dependencies with machine learning and artificial intelligence codes at higher software layers, and (e) highly challenging load balancing needs, especially in effectively accounting for accelerated/extremely heterogeneous computing in current and future high-performance computing systems. Efficient and accurate parallel execution of PDES workloads is also dominated by challenges in dealing with their asynchronous concurrency fundamentally present at the model level. Conservative synchronization, optimistic/speculative synchronization, and their hybrid schemes open new questions in fundamental computer science with respect to reversibility of computation and prediction (lookahead) of behaviors inherent within model codes. On the implementation front, there are relatively few scalable, general-purpose parallel discrete event simulators in the world, and even fewer have been studied on emerging hardware platforms. To enable scientific advances using PDES, the research needs in computer science must also be pursued and met in the intersection of the algorithmic and hardware-aware aspects of scalable PDES engines. This report is aimed at capturing a computer science-oriented view of this important area of research in PDES, presenting a sample of important applications with their inherent discrete event technology elements. Needs are outlined in core areas of parallel discrete event research as well as cross-cutting directions in computer science research that positively impact scientific advancements across several important application areas. A selection of priority research opportunities in advanced computing for PDES is identified to serve as reference for key research topics and their order of importance for scientific advancements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Online Optimization of NSLS-II Dynamic Aperture and Injection Transient (Facility Improvement Project)

The Facility Improvement Project (FIP) “Methods of online optimization of NSLS-II storage ring concurrent with user operations” proposed and approved in 2018 is now complete. The first goal is the online optimization of nonlinear beam dynamics to increase the beam lifetime and injection efficiency. We have developed a model-independent optimization technique using advanced algorithms. Using this technique, we increased the NSLS-II dynamic aperture by 20% and reduced the amplitude-dependent tune shift by a factor of two. We applied sextupole optimization to the new high-chromaticity lattice, which has been developed to improve the beam stability and to increase the single-bunch beam intensity. We were able to double the injection efficiency and exceed 90%. The second goal of this project is to provide the top-off injection with minimized perturbations of the beamline user operations. To achieve the transparent injection, we optimize the matching of four storage ring injection kickers reducing the perturbation of the stored beam orbit. The first application of the online optimization resulted in a reduction of the amplitude of residual beam oscillation by a factor of six, from 1300 μm down to 200 μm. Further improvement was limited by the timing jitter of the trigger boards. Then, we replaced all trigger boards with a new design and reduced the timing jitter by a factor of five, from 5 ns down to 1 ns. This upgrade resulted in the injection transient reduction from 200 μm to 120 μm. To optimize the full set of kicker parameters, including the trigger timing, amplitude, and pulse width, we upgraded all kicker power supplies with the capability of tunable waveform width. As a result, we have reduced the injection transient to the limit of 60 μm.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Floating platform effects on power generation in spar and semisubmersible wind turbines

The design and financing of commercial-scale floating offshore wind projects require a better understanding of how power generation differs between newer floating turbines and well-established fixed-bottom turbines. In floating turbines, platform mobility causes additional rotor motion that can change the time-averaged power generation. In this work, OpenFAST simulations examine the power generated by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 5-MW reference turbine mounted on the OC3-UMaine spar and OC4-DeepCWind semisubmersible floating platforms, subjected to extreme irregular waves and below-rated turbulent inflow wind from large-eddy simulations of a neutral atmospheric boundary layer. For these below-rated conditions, average power generation in floating turbines is most affected by two types of turbine displacements: an average rotor pitch angle that reduces power, caused by platform pitch; and rotor motion upwind-downwind that increases power, caused by platform surge and pitch. The relative balance between these two effects determines whether a floating platform causes power gains or losses compared to a fixed-bottom turbine; for example, the spar creates modest (3.1%–4.5%) power gains, whereas the semisubmersible creates insignificant (0.1%–0.2%) power gains for the simulated conditions. Furthermore, platform surge and pitch motions must be analyzed concurrently to fully capture power generation in floating turbines, which is not yet universal practice. Finally, a simple analytical model for predicting average power in floating turbines under below-rated wind speeds is proposed, incorporating effects from both the time-averaged pitch displacement and the dynamic upwind-downwind displacements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A new approach for measuring the carbon and oxygen content of atmospherically relevant compounds and mixtures

Abstract. Due to its complexity, gas- and particle-phase organic carbon in the atmosphere is often classified by its bulk physicochemical properties. However, there is a dearth of robust, moderate-cost approaches to measure the bulk chemical composition of organic carbon in the atmosphere. This is particularly true for the degree of oxygenation, which critically affects the properties and impacts of organic carbon but for which routine measurement approaches are lacking. This gap has limited the understanding of a wide range of atmospheric components, including particulate matter, the mass of which is monitored worldwide due to its health and environmental effects but the chemical characterization of which requires relatively high capital costs and complex operation by highly trained technical personnel. In this work, we demonstrate a new approach to estimate the mass of carbon and oxygen in analytes and mixtures that relies only on robust, moderate-cost detectors designed for use with gas chromatography. Organic compounds entering a flame ionization detector were found to be converted with approximately complete efficiency to CO2, which was analyzed downstream using an infrared detector to measure the mass of carbon analyzed. The ratio of the flame ionization detector (FID) signal generated to CO2 formed (FID∕CO2) was shown to be strongly correlated (R2=0.89) to the oxygen-to-carbon ratio (O∕C) of the analyte. Furthermore, simple mixtures of analytes behaved as the weighted average of their components, indicating that this correlation extends to mixtures. These properties were also observed to correlate well with the sensitivity of the FID estimated by structure activity relationships (quantified as the relative effective carbon number). The relationships between measured FID∕CO2, analyte O∕C, and FID sensitivity allow the estimation of one property from another with <15 % error for mixtures and <20 % error for most individual analytes. The approach opens the possibility of field-deployable, autonomous measurement of the carbon and oxygen content of particulate matter using time-tested, low-maintenance detectors, though such an application would require some additional testing on complex mixtures. With some instrumental modifications, similar measurements on gas-phase species may be feasible. Moreover, the potential expansion to additional gas chromatography detectors may provide concurrent measurement of other elements (e.g., sulfur, nitrogen).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

AI ensemble for signal detection of higher order gravitational wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing binary black hole mergers

We introduce spatiotemporal-graph models that concurrently process data from the twin advanced LIGO detectors and the advanced Virgo detector. We trained these AI classifiers with 2.4 million IMRPhenomXPHM waveforms that describe quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing binary black hole mergers with component masses m{1,2}∈[3M⊙,50M⊙], and individual spins sz{1,2}∈[−0.9,0.9]; and which include the (ℓ,|m|)={(2,2),(2,1),(3,3),(3,2),(4,4)} modes, and mode mixing effects in the ℓ=3,|m|=2 harmonics. We trained these AI classifiers within 22 hours using distributed training over 96 NVIDIA V100 GPUs in the Summit supercomputer. We then used transfer learning to create AI predictors that estimate the total mass of potential binary black holes identified by all AI classifiers in the ensemble. We used this ensemble, 3 classifiers for signal detection and 2 total mass predictors, to process a year-long test set in which we injected 300,000 signals. This year-long test set was processed within 5.19 minutes using 1024 NVIDIA A100 GPUs in the Polaris supercomputer (for AI inference) and 128 CPU nodes in the ThetaKNL supercomputer (for post-processing of noise triggers), housed at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility. These studies indicate that our AI ensemble provides state-of-the-art signal detection accuracy, and reports 2 misclassifications for every year of searched data. This is the first AI ensemble designed to search for and find higher order gravitational wave mode signals.

Tian, Minyang↗
DOE OSTI2025

Porous and Amorphous Mn x Mo 3 S 13 Chalcogel Electrode for High-Capacity Conversion-Based Lithium-Ion Batteries

While Li-ion batteries (LIBs) are a leading energy storage technology, their energy densities are limited by the low capacity of conventional intercalation cathodes, driving interest in high energy-density Li–S batteries that make use of conversion chemistry. Achieving high capacity, reversibility, and cycle stability, and controlling volume changes in conversion batteries during the charge–discharge process, however, remains challenging. Here, in this study, we present a porous, amorphous, sulfide-based Mn x Mo 3 S 13 chalcogel, which concurrently offers high capacity and cycle stability. The solution-processable room temperature synthesized Mn x Mo 3 S 13 (x = 0.25) chalcogel exhibits a local structure that resembles the Mo 3 S 13 cluster with Mn 2+ distributed across the Mo 3 S 13 matrix, as determined by synchrotron X-ray pair distribution function (PDF) and extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS). Ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations reveal that Mn 2+ incorporation shortens the polysulfide chain in the gel matrix compared to the Mo 3 S 13 chalcogel, while forming a coordination environment with disulfide groups, analogous to the experimental findings. A Li/Mn 0.25 Mo 3 S 13 half-cell delivers 897 mAh g –1 capacity during the first discharge and retains 571 mAh g –1 capacity after 100 cycles at a C/3 rate. Distribution of relaxation time (DRT) unveils a stable solid–electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation upon cycling that enables charge–discharge reversibility. Here, the enhanced capacity retention and cycle stability compared to those of the Li/Mo 3 S 13 cell are attributed to the reduced dissolution of active mass into the electrolyte, facilitated by the formation of shorter polysulfide chains within the Mn 0.25 Mo 3 S 13 structure and the strong affinity of Lewis-acidic Mn 2+ for polysulfide anions generated during the charge–discharge process of the Li/Mn 0.25 Mo 3 S 13 cell. Thus, this work illustrates a design principle of material for high-capacity and cycle-stable Li-metal sulfide batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Informing Nature-based Climate Solutions for the United States with the best-available science

Nature-based Climate Solutions (NbCS) are managed alterations to ecosystems designed to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While they have growing public and private support, the realizable benefits and unintended consequences of NbCS are not well understood. At regional scales where policy decisions are often made, NbCS benefits are estimated from soil and tree survey data that can miss important carbon sources and sinks within an ecosystem, and do not reveal the biophysical impacts of NbCS for local water and energy cycles. The only direct observations of ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes, for example, by eddy covariance flux towers, have not yet been systematically assessed for what they can tell us about NbCS potentials, and state-of-the-art remote sensing products and land-surface models are not yet being widely used to inform NbCS policymaking or implementation. As a result, there is a critical mismatch between the point- and tree-scale data most often used to assess NbCS benefits and impacts, the ecosystem and landscape scales where NbCS projects are implemented, and the regional to continental scales most relevant to policymaking. Here, we propose a research agenda to confront these gaps using data and tools that have long been used to understand the mechanisms driving ecosystem carbon and energy cycling, but have not yet been widely applied to NbCS. Furthermore, we outline steps for creating robust NbCS assessments at both local to regional scales that are informed by ecosystem-scale observations, and which consider concurrent biophysical impacts, future climate feedbacks, and the need for equitable and inclusive NbCS implementation strategies. We contend that these research goals can largely be accomplished by shifting the scales at which pre-existing tools are applied and blended together, although we also highlight some opportunities for more radical shifts in approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-scale impacts of climate change on hydropower for long-term water-energy planning in the contiguous United States

Climate change impacts on watersheds can potentially exacerbate water scarcity issues where water serves multiple purposes including hydropower. The long-term management of water and energy resources is still mostly approached in a siloed manner at different basins or watersheds, failing to consider the potential impacts that may concurrently affect many regions at once. There is a need for a large-scale hydropower modeling framework that can examine climate impacts across adjoining river basins and balancing authorities (BAs) and provide a periodic assessment at regional to national scales. Expanding from our prior assessment only for the United States (US) federal hydropower plants, we enhance and extend two regional hydropower models to cover over 85% of the total hydropower nameplate capacity and present the first contiguous US-wide assessment of future hydropower production under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6’s high-end Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 emission scenario using an uncertainty-aware multi-model ensemble approach. We present regional hydropower projections, using both BA regions and US Hydrologic Subregions (HUC4s), to consistently inform the energy and water communities for two future periods—the near-term (2020–2039) and the mid-term (2040–2059) relative to a historical baseline period (1980–2019). We find that the median projected changes in annual hydropower generation are typically positive—approximately 5% in the near-term, and 10% in the mid-term. However, since the risk of regional droughts is also projected to increase, future planning cannot overly rely on the ensemble median, as the potential of severe hydropower reductions could be overlooked. The assessment offers an ensemble of future hydropower generation projections, providing regional utilities and power system operators with consistent data to develop drought scenarios, design long duration storage and evaluate energy infrastructure reliability under intensified inter-annual and seasonal variability.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A machine learning approach to water quality forecasts and sensor network expansion: Case study in the Wabash River Basin, United States

Abstract Midwestern cities require forecasts of surface nitrate loads to bring additional treatment processes online or activate alternative water supplies. Concurrently, networks of nitrate monitoring stations are being deployed in river basins, co‐locating water quality observations with established stream gauges. However, tools to evaluate the future value of expanded networks to improve water quality forecasts remains challenging. Here, we construct a synthetic data set of stream discharge and nitrate for the Wabash River Basin—one of the United States’ most nutrient polluted basins—using the established Agro‐IBIS and THMB models. Synthetic data enables rapid, unbiased and low‐cost assessment of potential sensor placements to support management objectives, such as near‐term forecasting. Using the synthetic data, we established baseline 1‐day forecasts for surface water nitrate at 12 cities in the basin using support vector machine regression (SVMR; RMSE 0.48–3.3 ppm). Next, we used the SVMRs to evaluate the improvement in forecast performance associated with deployment of additional nitrate sensors. We identified the optimal sensor placement to improve forecasts at each city, and the relative value of sensors at each candidate location. Finally, we assessed the co‐benefit realized by other cities when a sensor is deployed to optimize a forecast at one city, finding significant positive externalities in all cases. Ultimately, our study explores the potential for machine learning to make near‐term predictions and critically evaluate the improvement realized by expanding a monitoring network. While we use nitrate pollution in the Wabash River Basin as a case study, this approach could be readily applied to any problem where the future value of sensors and network design are being evaluated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Atomic Ordering-Induced Ensemble Variation in Alloys Governs Electrocatalyst On/Off States

The catalytic behavior of a material is influenced by ensembles—the geometric configuration of atoms. Traditional approaches, mainly utilizing solid-solution alloys in electrocatalysis, have often overlooked the challenges posed by concurrent changes in the electronic structure (i.e. d-band center) when the composition is altered. Here, this study introduces a methodology that distinctly separates the geometric effects (i.e. ensembles) from the electronic structure. We compare the reactivity of compositionally identical, but structurally different Pd 3 Bi ordered intermetallic and solid-solution alloys. Remarkably, we find that Pd 3 Bi intermetallics display nearly no reactivity for the methanol oxidation (MOR), while their solid-solution counterparts have significant reactivity. This highlights a unique case where materials with identical chemical compositions demonstrate drastically different catalytic behavior underscoring the critical importance of ensembles in electrocatalysis. Specifically, Pd 3 Bi intermetallics form smaller ensembles (average coordination number: 4.5 ± 1.6) with almost no measurable MOR activity at room temperature, in contrast to the solid-solution Pd 3 Bi that exhibit larger ensembles (average coordination number: 6.8 ± 0.9) and considerable MOR reactivity (0.5 mA cm −2 Pd ). An ordered Pd 3 Bi alloy, with an intermediate ensemble size (average coordination number: 5.3 ± 1.2), displays moderate MOR activity (0.1 mA cm −2 Pd ), further confirming the direct correlation between ensemble size and catalytic activity. Notably, all Pd 3 Bi alloys maintain similar electronic structures, because the chemical composition of the alloys is fixed, indicating that the differences in reactivity are predominantly from changes to the ensemble size. Our findings offer an approach for precisely controlling catalytic activity through manipulating the geometric configuration of the atoms within an alloy, paving the way for more efficient catalyst design.

alloys↗