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At least 289 records · Page 16

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DOE OSTI2024

Computationally efficient and error aware surrogate construction for numerical solutions of subsurface flow through porous media

Limiting the injection rate to restrict the pressure below a threshold at a critical location can be an important goal of simulations that model the subsurface pressure between injection and extraction wells. The pressure is approximated by the solution of Darcy’s partial differential equation for a given permeability field. The subsurface permeability is modeled as a random field since it is known only up to statistical properties. This induces uncertainty in the computed pressure. Solving the partial differential equation for an ensemble of random permeability simulations enables estimating a probability distribution for the pressure at the critical location. These simulations are computationally expensive, and practitioners often need rapid online guidance for real-time pressure management. An ensemble of numerical partial differential equation solutions is used to construct a Gaussian process regression model that can quickly predict the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. The Gaussian process surrogate analyzes the ensemble of numerical pressure solutions at the critical location as noisy observations of the true pressure solution, enabling robust inference using the conditional Gaussian process distribution. Our first novel contribution is to identify a sampling methodology for the random environment and matching kernel technology for which fitting the Gaussian process regression model scales as O ( n log n ) instead of the typical O ( n 3 ) rate in the number of samples n used to fit the surrogate. The surrogate model allows almost instantaneous predictions for the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. Our second contribution is a novel algorithm to calibrate the uncertainty in the surrogate model to the discrepancy between the true pressure solution of Darcy’s equation and the numerical solution. Finally, although our method is derived for building a surrogate for the solution of Darcy’s equation with a random permeability field, the framework broadly applies to solutions of other partial differential equations with random coefficients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scrambling Dynamics with Imperfections in a Solvable Model

We study how probes of quantum scrambling dynamics respond to two kinds of imperfections -- unequal forward and backward evolutions and decoherence -- in a solvable Brownian circuit model. We calculate a ``renormalized'' out-of-time-order correlator (ROTOC) in the model with $N$ qubits, and we show that the circuit-averaged ROTOC is controlled by an effective probability distribution in operator weight space which obeys a system of $N$ non-linear equations of motion. These equations can be easily solved numerically for large system sizes which are beyond the reach of exact methods. Moreover, for an operator initially concentrated on weight one $w_0=1$, we provide an exact solution to the equations in the thermodynamic limit of many qubits that is valid for all times, all non-vanishing perturbation strengths $p\gtrsim 1/\sqrt{N}$, and all decoherence strengths. We also show that a generic initial condition $w_0 >1$ leads to a metastable state that eventually collapses to the $w_0=1$ case after a lifetime $\sim \log(N/w_0)$. Our results highlight situations where it is still possible to extract the unperturbed chaos exponent even in the presence of imperfections, and we comment on the applications of our results to existing experiments with nuclear spins and to future scrambling experiments.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

NASA NTRS1994

Statistical analysis of mesoscale rainfall: Dependence of a random cascade generator on large-scale forcing

Under the theory of independent and identically distributed random cascades, the probability distribution of the cascade generator determines the spatial and the ensemble properties of spatial rainfall. Three sets of radar-derived rainfall data in space and time are analyzed to estimate the probability distribution of the generator. A detailed comparison between instantaneous scans of spatial rainfall and simulated cascades using the scaling properties of the marginal moments is carried out. This comparison highlights important similarities and differences between the data and the random cascade theory. Differences are quantified and measured for the three datasets. Evidence is presented to show that the scaling properties of the rainfall can be captured to the first order by a random cascade with a single parameter. The dependence of this parameter on forcing by the large-scale meteorological conditions, as measured by the large-scale spatial average rain rate, is investigated for these three datasets. The data show that this dependence can be captured by a one-to-one function. Since the large-scale average rain rate can be diagnosed from the large-scale dynamics, this relationship demonstrates an important linkage between the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and the statistical cascade theory of mesoscale rainfall. Potential application of this research to parameterization of runoff from the land surface and regional flood frequency analysis is briefly discussed, and open problems for further research are presented.

Over, Thomas, M.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Dynamic Adjustment of Simulation Parameters for Efficient Vehicle Prognostics

Model-based diagnostics and prognostics rely on state estimation and uncertainty management algorithms to produce useful information for system operators and maintainers. This information enables more informed operational decisions, condition-based maintenance, and overall mission safety assurance. Typically, uncertainty is associated with vehicle state-of-health estimation and prediction results because of modeling errors, internal or external sources of noise, and sensor inaccuracy. Probabilistic uncertainty management methods including Sequential Monte Carlo simulation are commonly used to reason about state-of-health estimates and predictions in the presence of these sources of uncertainty. However, such algorithms can be computationally expensive as they require a very large number of samples to obtain a sufficiently accurate quantification of the end of life probability distribution. As a result, highly mobile autonomous systems that leverage the prognostic results for mission-level replanning are often constrained in their processing capability because of these computationally expensive simulation approaches. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate algorithmic methods for dynamically adjusting simulation time step as well as number of samples to achieve highly efficient prognostic results while maintaining results accuracy. Results obtained from simulated flight experiments of an electric unmanned aerial vehicle are presented to verify the efficacy of such algorithms.

Prognostics↗

NASA NTRS1977

Random and systematic measurement errors in acoustic impedance as determined by the transmission line method

The effect of random and systematic errors associated with the measurement of normal incidence acoustic impedance in a zero-mean-flow environment was investigated by the transmission line method. The influence of random measurement errors in the reflection coefficients and pressure minima positions was investigated by computing fractional standard deviations of the normalized impedance. Both the standard techniques of random process theory and a simplified technique were used. Over a wavelength range of 68 to 10 cm random measurement errors in the reflection coefficients and pressure minima positions could be described adequately by normal probability distributions with standard deviations of 0.001 and 0.0098 cm, respectively. An error propagation technique based on the observed concentration of the probability density functions was found to give essentially the same results but with a computation time of about 1 percent of that required for the standard technique. The results suggest that careful experimental design reduces the effect of random measurement errors to insignificant levels for moderate ranges of test specimen impedance component magnitudes. Most of the observed random scatter can be attributed to lack of control by the mounting arrangement over mechanical boundary conditions of the test sample.

Parrott, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Limits on the prediction of helicopter rotor noise using thickness and loading sources: Validation of helicopter noise prediction techniques

The techniques of helicopter rotor noise prediction attempt to describe precisely the details of the noise field and remove the empiricisms and restrictions inherent in previous methods. These techniques require detailed inputs of the rotor geometry, operating conditions, and blade surface pressure distribution. The Farassat noise prediction techniques was studied, and high speed helicopter noise prediction using more detailed representations of the thickness and loading noise sources was investigated. These predictions were based on the measured blade surface pressures on an AH-1G rotor and compared to the measured sound field. Although refinements in the representation of the thickness and loading noise sources improve the calculation, there are still discrepancies between the measured and predicted sound field. Analysis of the blade surface pressure data indicates shocks on the blades, which are probably responsible for these discrepancies.

Succi, G. P.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Failure detection and accommodation in structural dynamics systems using analytic redundancy

The concept of analytic redundancy is extended to identify nonzero constant output failures in large spacecraft active control sensors and actuators, using a set of distributed sensors which do not nominally produce equivalent signals but are related through the structural dynamics of the system. The suboptimal technique uses a Sequential Probability Ratio Test on the residual sequence of a Kalman filter based on a modal structure model, to determine failure of a component based on an assumed failure hypothesis. The specific failure is identified and then the Kalman filter gains are reconfigured for the identified remaining working sensor set. Experimental data using an apparatus whose dynamics are representative of a large spacecraft show the nominal filter performance under failed and unfailed conditions.

Williams, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Presumed PDF Modeling of Early Flame Propagation in Moderate to Intense Turbulence Environments

The present paper describes the results obtained from a one-dimensional time dependent numerical technique that simulates early flame propagation in a moderate to intense turbulent environment. Attention is focused on the development of a spark-ignited, premixed, lean methane/air mixture with the unsteady spherical flame propagating in homogeneous and isotropic turbulence. A Monte-Carlo particle tracking method, based upon the method of fractional steps, is utilized to simulate the phenomena represented by a probability density function (PDF) transport equation. Gaussian distributions of fluctuating velocity and fuel concentration are prescribed. Attention is focused on three primary parameters that influence the initial flame kernel growth: the detailed ignition system characteristics, the mixture composition, and the nature of the flow field. The computational results of moderate and intense isotropic turbulence suggests that flames within the distributed reaction zone are not as vulnerable, as traditionally believed, to the adverse effects of increased turbulence intensity. It is also shown that the magnitude of the flame front thickness significantly impacts the turbulent consumption flame speed. Flame conditions studied have fuel equivalence ratio s in the range phi = 0.6 to 0.9 at standard temperature and pressure.

Carmen, Christina↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Pseudoreversible Normalizing Flow for Stochastic Dynamical Systems with Various Initial Distributions

Here, we present a pseudoreversible normalizing flow method for efficiently generating samples of the state of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with various initial distributions. The primary objective is to construct an accurate and efficient sampler that can be used as a surrogate model for computationally expensive numerical integration of SDEs, such as those employed in particle simulation. After training, the normalizing flow model can directly generate samples of the SDE’s final state without simulating trajectories. The existing normalizing flow model for SDEs depends on the initial distribution, meaning the model needs to be retrained when the initial distribution changes. The main novelty of our normalizing flow model is that it can learn the conditional distribution of the state, i.e., the distribution of the final state conditional on any initial state, such that the model only needs to be trained once and the trained model can be used to handle various initial distributions. This feature can provide a significant computational saving in studies of how the final state varies with the initial distribution. Additionally, we propose to use a pseudoreversible network architecture to define the normalizing flow model, which has sufficient expressive power and training efficiency for a variety of SDEs in science and engineering, e.g., in particle physics. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis of the pseudoreversible normalizing flow model to the target probability density function in the Kullback–Leibler divergence metric. Numerical experiments are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed normalizing flow model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2000

Measurement and Modeling of Steep Ocean Wave Slopes

Our study emphasizes the importance of identifying and quantifying the distribution variance, skewness and kurtosis from optical and microwave scattering observations. Recent field measurements of the sea slope distribution for intermediate-to-long scale gravity waves will be presented. These data were collected using an airborne laser range system designed to estimate the surface slope vector at horizontal scales of 1-2 m. The observed slope distribution tail indicates that the occurrence of steep waves substantially exceeds a Gaussian prediction. This measured peakedness is present over the wide range of sea state and wind speed conditions encountered. Data are further evaluated within the context of Cox and Munk's well-known sea slope investigations. Based on a re-evaluation of the Cox and Munk's reported parameters, we find a consistent picture develops wherein data are shown to consistently indicate non-Gaussian statistics. One fundamental application of such a non-Gaussian slope observation is its place in modifying predicted wave breaking probability to help to better quantify gas transfer processes at the sea surface.

Chapron, B.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Microwave inversion of leaf area and inclination angle distributions from backscattered data

The backscattering coefficient from a slab of thin randomly oriented dielectric disks over a flat lossy ground is used to reconstruct the inclination angle and area distributions of the disks. The disks are employed to model a leafy agricultural crop, such as soybeans, in the L-band microwave region of the spectrum. The distorted Born approximation, along with a thin disk approximation, is used to obtain a relationship between the horizontal-like polarized backscattering coefficient and the joint probability density of disk inclination angle and disk radius. Assuming large skin depth reduces the relationship to a linear Fredholm integral equation of the first kind. Due to the ill-posed nature of this equation, a Phillips-Twomey regularization method with a second difference smoothing condition is used to find the inversion. Results are obtained in the presence of 1 and 10 percent noise for both leaf inclination angle and leaf radius densities.

Lang, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA Team 2 Sea Ice Concentration Algorithm Retrieval Uncertainty

Satellite microwave radiometers are widely used to estimate sea ice cover properties (concentration, extent, and area) through the use of sea ice concentration (IC) algorithms. Rare are the algorithms providing associated IC uncertainty estimates. Algorithm uncertainty estimates are needed to assess accurately global and regional trends in IC (and thus extent and area), and to improve sea ice predictions on seasonal to interannual timescales using data assimilation approaches. This paper presents a method to provide relative IC uncertainty estimates using the enhanced NASA Team (NT2) IC algorithm. The proposed approach takes advantage of the NT2 calculations and solely relies on the brightness temperatures (TBs) used as input. NT2 IC and its associated relative uncertainty are obtained for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) TB. NT2 IC relative uncertainties estimated on a footprint-by-footprint swath-by-swath basis were averaged daily over each 12.5-km grid cell of the polar stereographic grid. For both hemispheres and throughout the year, the NT2 relative uncertainty is less than 5%. In the Southern Hemisphere, it is low in the interior ice pack, and it increases in the marginal ice zone up to 5%. In the Northern Hemisphere, areas with high uncertainties are also found in the high IC area of the Central Arctic. Retrieval uncertainties are greater in areas corresponding to NT2 ice types associated with deep snow and new ice. Seasonal variations in uncertainty show larger values in summer as a result of melt conditions and greater atmospheric contributions. Our analysis also includes an evaluation of the NT2 algorithm sensitivity to AMSR-E sensor noise. There is a 60% probability that the IC does not change (to within the computed retrieval precision of 1%) due to sensor noise, and the cumulated probability shows that there is a 90% chance that the IC varies by less than +/-3%. We also examined the daily IC variability, which is dominated by sea ice drift and ice formation/melt. Daily IC variability is the highest, year round, in the MIZ (often up to 20%, locally 30%). The temporal and spatial distributions of the retrieval uncertainties and the daily IC variability is expected to be useful for algorithm intercomparisons, climate trend assessments, and possibly IC assimilation in models.

Sea Ice↗

NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of Operational Performance of Ka-Band Links in Deep Space Network

This paper presents a characterization of performance of 32-GHz Ka-band link in an operational environment. The data come from tracking of Kepler spacecraft by the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) in the past few years. Ka-band link offers a significant signal-to-noise advantage compared to the more common X- or S-band; however, it is subject to more signal fluctuation caused by the weather. Kepler is the first mission supported by the DSN that solely rely on the higher deep space Ka-band communications link to return its high-rate science data. A well characterization of the operational performance of Kepler would benefit future Ka-band missions, especially for those operating with smaller link margin. The study examines how weather conditions at the DSN facilities (e.g., winds, clouds, rains) affect the received signal, particularly on telemetry data. It addresses questions such as how often the weather affects the link and how much degradation the link could suffer. Among the 22 Ka-band passes in 2012, heavy clouds affected one pass and two passes were impacted by high winds. The adverse weather caused at time as much as 3-dB instantaneous change in the signal to noise ratio (SNR). Estimates of degradation to the SNR as a function of wind speeds are captured based on observations. This study also quantifies the probability distribution of the variation of received signal power. With such information, future missions can better plan their link design. An optimal link design aims for just having enough margin to realize the data return with a targeted probability, with neither having too much margin that it reduces the downlink data rate nor insufficient reserve that causes frequent data outages. The study tries to provide some answers to the questions such as how much does SNR vary from one tracking pass to the next, and what is the cumulative distribution of signal fluctuation. Regarding the signal variation over many tracking passes, we found that the averaged symbol SNR (SSNR) for each pass changed by as much as 4 dB. Some variations were due to geometry such as the changing distance between spacecraft and Earth and different antenna pointing elevations. Other variations seem to be random in nature, reflecting the randomness of operational environments. Some passes were found to be quite stable, with a standard deviation of symbol SNR around 0.25 dB while others had greater variation, up to 1.4 dB. Overall, the cumulative distribution of the symbol SNR reflects that 50% of the fluctuations was less than 0.6 dB, 90% of fluctuation was within 1.6 dB and 95% within 2.2 dB. Some of the challenges in data processing, validation and modeling were captured in this paper. We observed some inconsistent measurements where operational data significantly deviate from a normal expectation. These inconsistent measurements made it hard to develop an accurate and consistent performance model, such as the degradation of signal SNR as a function of high wind. The difficulty was compounded by the fact that there were only a few Ka-band passes observed in high winds.

Pham, Timothy↗

NASA NTRS1972

Martian doublet craters.

A large number of Mars craters are nearly tangential to other craters. They occur in clusters or as isolated crater doublets. Results of probability calculations and a Monte Carlo cratering simulation model show conclusively that many of the Mars craters could not have resulted from random single-body impact. The possibility that these craters are calderas is considered possible only if calderas on Mars form by mechanisms different from those on earth. However, clusters and doublets could be caused by meteoroid breakup resulting from stresses induced in the meteoroid by the gravitational field of Mars. It is concluded that, under certain conditions, doublets should be produced on Mars as a direct result of breakup of an impacting meteoroid. The impact process can yield nonrandom crater distributions that should be observed in different degrees of development on different planetary surfaces.

Oberbeck, V. R.↗

NASA NTRS1934

Aerodynamic effects of a split flap on the spinning characteristics of a monoplane model

The investigation described in this report was made to determine the change in aerodynamic forces and moments produced by split flaps in a steady spin. The test were made with the spinning balance in the NACA 5-foot vertical wind tunnel. A low-wing monoplane model was tested with and without the split flaps in 12 spinning attitudes chosen to cover the probable spinning range. The changes in coefficients produced by adding the split flaps are given for longitudinal force, normal force, and rolling and yawing moments about body axes. The results obtained indicate that the use of split flaps on an airplane is unlikely, in any case, to have much beneficial effect on a spin, and it might make the spin dangerous. The change in the spin will depend upon the aerodynamic and inertia characteristics of the particular airplane. A dangerous condition is most likely to be attained with airplanes which are statically stable in yaw in the spinning attitude and which have large weights distributed along wings.

Bamber, M J↗

NASA NTRS2008

Summertime Coincident Observations of Ice Water Path in the Visible/Near-IR, Radar, and Microwave Frequencies

Accurate representation of the physical and radiative properties of clouds in climate models continues to be a challenge. At present, both remote sensing observations and modeling of microphysical properties of clouds rely heavily on parameterizations or assumptions on particle size distribution (PSD) and cloud phase. In this study, we compare Ice Water Path (IWP), an important physical and radiative property that provides the amount of ice present in a cloud column, using measurements obtained via three different retrieval strategies. The datasets we use in this study include Visible/Near-IR IWP from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument flying aboard the Aqua satellite, Radar-only IWP from the CloudSat instrument operating at 94 GHz, and NOAA/NESDIS operational IWP from the 89 and 157 GHz channels of the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) instrument flying aboard the NOAA-18 satellite. In the Visible/Near-IR, IWP is derived from observations of optical thickness and effective radius. CloudSat IWP is determined from measurements of cloud backscatter and assumed PSD. MHS IWP retrievals depend on scattering measurements at two different, non-water absorbing channels, 89 and 157 GHz. In order to compare IWP obtained from these different techniques and collected at different vertical and horizontal resolutions, we examine summertime cases in the tropics (30S - 30N) when all 3 satellites are within 4 minutes of each other (approximately 1500 km). All measurements are then gridded to a common 15 km x 15 km box determined by MHS. In a grid box comparison, we find CloudSat to report the highest IWP followed by MODIS, followed by MHS. In a statistical comparison, probability density distributions show MHS with the highest frequencies at IWP of 100-1000 g/m(exp 2) and CloudSat with the longest tail reporting IWP of several thousands g/m(exp 2). For IWP greater than 30 g/m(exp 2), MODIS is consistently higher than CloudSat, and it is higher at the lower IWPs but lower at the higher IWPs that overlap with MHS. Some of these differences can be attributed to the limitations of the measuring techniques themselves, but some can result from the assumptions made in the algorithms that generate the IWP product. We investigate this issue by creating categories based on various conditions such as cloud type, precipitation presence, underlying liquid water content, and surface type (land vs. ocean) and by comparing the performance of the IWP products under each condition.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian reconstruction of anisotropic flow fluctuations at fixed impact parameter

The cumulants of the distribution of anisotropic flow are measured accurately in Pb+Pb collisions at the LHC as a function of centrality classifiers (charged multiplicity and/or transverse energy). Using Bayesian inference, we reconstruct from these measurements the probability distribution of anisotropic flow in the ``theorists' frame'' where the impact parameter has a fixed magnitude and orientation, up to ∼70% centrality. The variation of flow fluctuations with impact parameter displays direct evidence of viscous damping, which is larger for higher Fourier harmonics, in line with expectations from hydrodynamics. We use intensive measures of non-Gaussian flow fluctuations, which have reduced dependence on centrality. Here, we infer from ATLAS data the magnitude of these intensive non-Gaussianities in each Fourier harmonic. They provide data-driven estimates of response coefficients to initial anisotropies, without resorting to any specific microscopic model of initial conditions. These estimates agree with viscous hydrodynamic calculations.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian inference of nuclear-matter density from proton scattering

Background: Proton elastic scattering at intermediate energy is widely employed as a tool for determining the matter radius of atomic nuclei. Here, the sensitivity of the approach relies on high-resolution measurements at small scattering angles and low-momentum transfer. Under these conditions, the Glauber multiple scattering theory accurately describes the proton-nucleus elastic cross section. Purpose: Investigate the sensitivity of the Glauber multiple scattering theory to uncertainties associated with input parameters such as the nuclear-matter density distribution and nucleon-nucleon data. Method: A joint Bayesian inference was performed using 12 angular distributions of elastic scattering at different energies on 58 Ni, 90 Zr, and 208 Pb targets. A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was implemented to make an uncertainty quantification analysis for the input parameters used in the Glauber multiple scattering theory. Results: The experimental cross sections were fitted simultaneously using a joint Bayesian inference approach. Posterior probability density distributions of 42 input parameters were obtained from the analysis. A moderate correlation between the nuclear density parameters and the nucleon-nucleon cross sections was found. This correlation impacts the extraction of the nuclear-matter radius. Conclusions: The present analysis provided a consistent method for extracting the nuclear-matter density distribution of 58 Ni, 90 Zr, and 208 Pb from data across different incident energies. Due to the correlation of the nucleon-nucleon cross sections with the other input parameters, a constrained Bayesian inference using free nucleon-nucleon cross section data was performed. The nuclear-matter radii obtained from the analysis are in good agreement with multiple results reported in the literature.

190 ≤ A ≤ 219↗