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Preliminary Screening of Features, Events, and Processes for an Arctic-Focused Climate Intervention Performance Assessment

Geoengineering, the deliberate large-scale intervention in Earth's climate system, holds significant potential in the rapidly warming Arctic, where temperatures currently rise at more than twice the global average, accelerating ice sheet and permafrost melt. This contributes to global sea-level rise and releases methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Strategies like solar radiation management (SRM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) could mitigate these effects; for instance, SRM techniques aim to reflect a portion of the sun's energy back into space, potentially slowing ice melt and stabilizing permafrost. However, geoengineering in the Arctic faces challenges, including potential unintended consequences on the fragile ecosystem, disruption of local weather patterns, and impacts on indigenous communities. Effective governance requires robust international cooperation, environmental impact assessments, and regulatory frameworks. Despite these challenges, geoengineering's potential benefits make it a critical research area. This report explores application of the Performance Assessment (PA) methodology to Arctic Climate Intervention, providing an initial screening of relevant features, events, and processes (FEPs). At the core of the PA approach is the identification and evaluation of FEPs that could impact the performance of the intervention scheme. Here we provide an initial screening of FEPs to consider in the application of PA to Arctic Climate Intervention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Framework for Building Security into the Design Process

This report presents guidance to support the implementation of security objectives during the design process for nuclear facilities using an organization’s quality management system. The guidance in this document is intended for design vendors and operators of nuclear power facilities. Additionally, this guidance document can be beneficial to regulatory bodies, industry partners, customers, and other stakeholders within the nuclear power market. This report aims to ensure security consequences are identified before designs are completed, which may lead to reduced costs and higher security effectiveness and efficiency.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Framework for Building Security into the Design Process

This report presents guidance to support the implementation of security objectives during the design process for nuclear facilities using an organization’s quality management system. The guidance in this document is intended for design vendors and operators of nuclear power facilities. Additionally, this guidance document can be beneficial to regulatory bodies, industry partners, customers, and other stakeholders within the nuclear power market. This report aims to ensure security consequences are identified before designs are completed, which may lead to reduced costs and higher security effectiveness and efficiency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Can Cell to Cell Thermal Runaway Propagation be Prevented in a Li-ion Battery Module?

Increasing cell spacing decreased adjacent cell damage center dotElectrically connected adjacent cells drained more than physically adjacent cells center dotRadiant barrier prevents propagation when fully installed between BP cells center dotBP cells vent rapidly and expel contents at 100% SOC -Slower vent with flame/smoke at 50% -Thermal runaway event typically occurs at 160 degC center dotLG cells vent but do not expel contents -Thermal runaway event typically occurs at 200 degC center dotSKC LFP modules did not propagate; fuses on negative terminal of cell may provide a benefit in reducing cell to cell damage propagation. New requirement in NASA-Battery Safety Requirements document: JSC 20793 Rev C 5.1.5.1 Requirements - Thermal Runaway Propagation a. For battery designs greater than a 80-Wh energy employing high specific energy cells (greater than 80 watt-hours/kg, for example, lithium-ion chemistries) with catastrophic failure modes, the battery shall be evaluated to ascertain the severity of a worst-case single-cell thermal runaway event and the propensity of the design to demonstrate cell-to-cell propagation in the intended application and environment. NASA has traditionally addressed the threat of thermal runaway incidents in its battery deployments through comprehensive prevention protocols. This prevention-centered approach has included extensive screening for manufacturing defects, as well as robust battery management controls that prevent abuse-induced runaway even in the face of multiple system failures. This focused strategy has made the likelihood of occurrence of such an event highly improbable. b. The evaluation shall include all necessary analysis and test to quantify the severity (consequence) of the event in the intended application and environment as well as to identify design modifications to the battery or the system that could appreciably reduce that severity. In addition to prevention protocols, programs developing battery designs with catastrophic failure modes should take the steps necessary to assess the severity of a possible thermal runaway event. Programs should assess whether there are reasonable design changes that could appreciably affect the severity of the outcome. Evaluation should include environmental effects to surrounding hardware (i.e., temperature, pressure, shock), contamination effects due to any expelled contaminates, and venting propulsive effects when venting overboard.

Jeevarajan, Judith↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-14834-DND

A recent spin-off from flight deck adaptive automation research at NASA Langley Research Center is a biocybernetic invention referred to informally as MindShift. When using the MindShift technology, a person is able to play off-the-shelf Nintendo Wii games enhanced with biofeedback, which is used to improve self-regulation of physiological functioning. Therefore, the user experiences the challenge of regulating their physiological responses during gameplay in addition to the intended challenges presented in the video game. The research projects being conducted under the supervision of Dr. Alan Pope and Chad Stephens at NASA Langley Research Center examine the effects of interacting with the MindShift invention technology on subjects' self-regulation of heart rate and brainwave activity, performance in the games, performance on cognitive tasks, and subjective experience of effort (i.e., workload). The MindShift invention's effects are being compared to the effects of interacting with the games without the MindShift technology and to the effects of interacting with commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) brain-computer interface (BCI) technology, specifically the Mattel Mind Flex and the Uncle Milton Star Wars Force Trainer. A 32-channel electroencephalograph system is used to record subjects' brainwave and electrocardiographic activity. The potential for biofeedback game system applications is wide-ranging - from a more engaging form of clinical biofeedback training to a new challenge for avid gamers. Consequently, research needs to be conducted to fully understand the effects that these new games have on a person's physiological and psychological functioning. Biocybernetic technology like MindShift developed from the idea that operators of critical systems such as aerospace systems could hone their stress management and attention skills in biofeedback-augmented leisure activities while off-the-job in order to positively affect their on-the-job performance. This human performance enhancement technology is applicable to skill training on manually controlled critical tasks, such as unmanned aerial vehicle teleoperation, thus enabling the training of cognitive skills to be concurrent with manual skills. Furthermore, this type of technology can apply to medical and clinical uses of biofeedback by serving as an additional form of clinical biofeedback training that may be particularly useful for those with ADHD.

Brittany N Neilson↗

Proceedings of the Polar Processes on Mars Workshop

Included in this publication is a collection of abstracts from the NASA-sponsored workshop, Polar Processes on Mars, which was held at the Sunnyvale Hilton Hotel, Sunnyvale, California, on 12 to 13 May 1988. Support for the workshop came from NASA's Planetary Geology and Geophysics program managed by Dr. Jospeh Boyce. The workshop is one of a series identified by MECA (an acronym for Mars: Evolution of its Climate and Atmosphere) as being worthy of focused research, but one for which it was not possible to hold during the project's lifetime. Consequently, it was held after the project ended. The MECA project was part of the Mars Data Analysis program. The workshop consisted of four sessions: The Polar Caps, Dynamics/Atmospheric Processes, Polar Geology, and Future Measurements. To put things into perspective, each of the first three sessions began with a review. All sessions were scheduled to allow ample time for discussion. A brief review of each session is provided.

Haberle, Robert M.↗

Experiments on neural network architectures for fuzzy logic

The use of fuzzy logic to model and manage uncertainty in a rule-based system places high computational demands on an inference engine. In an earlier paper, the authors introduced a trainable neural network structure for fuzzy logic. These networks can learn and extrapolate complex relationships between possibility distributions for the antecedents and consequents in the rules. Here, the power of these networks is further explored. The insensitivity of the output to noisy input distributions (which are likely if the clauses are generated from real data) is demonstrated as well as the ability of the networks to internalize multiple conjunctive clause and disjunctive clause rules. Since different rules with the same variables can be encoded in a single network, this approach to fuzzy logic inference provides a natural mechanism for rule conflict resolution.

Keller, James M.↗

The Use of Remote Sensing for Monitoring, Prediction, and Management of Hydrologic, Agricultural, and Ecological Processes in the Northern Great Plains

The NASA-EPSCoR program in South Dakota is focused on the enhancement of NASA-related research in earth system science and corresponding infrastructure development to support this theme. Hence, the program has adopted a strategy that keys on research projects that: a) establish quantitative links between geospatial information technologies and fundamental climatic and ecosystem processes in the Northern Great Plains (NGP) and b) develop and use coupled modeling tools, which can be initialized by data from combined satellite and surface measurements, to provide reliable predictions and management guidance for hydrologic, agricultural, and ecological systems of the NGP. Building a partnership network that includes both internal and external team members is recognized as an essential element of the SD NASA-EPSCoR program. Hence, promoting and tracking such linkages along with their relevant programmatic consequences are used as one metric to assess the program's progress and success. This annual report first summarizes general activities and accomplishments, and then provides progress narratives for the two separate, yet related research projects that are essential components of the SD NASA-EPSCoR program.

Farwell, Sherry O.↗

Application of Human-Autonomy Teaming to an Advanced Ground Station for Reduced Crew Operations

Within human factors there is burgeoning interest in the "human-autonomy teaming" (HAT) concept as a way to address the challenges of interacting with complex, increasingly autonomous systems. The HAT concept comes out of an aspiration to interact with increasingly autonomous systems as a team member, rather than simply use automation as a tool. The authors, and others, have proposed core tenets for HAT that include bi-directional communication, automation and system transparency, and advanced coordination between human and automated teammates via predefined, dynamic task sequences known as "plays." It is believed that, with proper implementation, HAT should foster appropriate teamwork, thus increasing trust and reliance on the system, which in turn will reduce workload, increase situation awareness, and improve performance. To this end, HAT has been demonstrated and/or studied in multiple applications including search and rescue operations, healthcare and medicine, autonomous vehicles, photography, and aviation. The current paper presents one such effort to apply HAT. It details the design of a HAT agent, developed by Human Automation Teaming Solutions, Inc., to facilitate teamwork between the automation and the human operator of an advanced ground dispatch station. This dispatch station was developed to support a NASA project investigating a concept called Reduced Crew Operations (RCO); consequently, we have named the agent R-HATS. Part of the RCO concept involves a ground operator providing enhanced support to a large number of aircraft with a single pilot on the flight deck. When assisted by R-HATS, operators can monitor and support or manage a large number of aircraft and use plays to respond in real-time to complicated, workload-intensive events (e.g., an airport closure). A play is a plan that encapsulates goals, tasks, and a task allocation strategy appropriate for a particular situation. In the current implementation, when a play is initiated by a user, R-HATS determines what tasks need to be completed and has the ability to autonomously execute them (e.g., determining diversion options and uplinking new routes to aircraft) when it is safe and appropriate. R-HATS has been designed to both support end users and researchers in RCO and HAT. Additionally, R-HATS and its underlying architecture were developed with generalizability in mind as a modular software applicable outside of RCO/aviation domains. This paper will also discuss future further development and testing of RHATS.

automation↗

Managing Uncertainty Due to a Fundamental Error Source Arising from Scatterer Distribution Complexity in Radar Remote Sensing of Precipitation

The assumption that cloud and rain drops are spatially distributed according to a Poisson distribution within a scattering volume probed by a radar being used to estimate precipitation has represented bedrock theory in establishing 'rules of the game' for pulse averaging--the process needed to beat down noise to an acceptable level in the measurement of radar reflectivity factor. Based on relatively recent observations of 'realistic' spatial distributions of hydrometeor scatterers in a cloudy atmosphere motivates a renewed examination of the consequences of using a too simplified assumption underlying volume scattering--particularly in regards to the standard pulse averaging rule. Our investigation addresses two extremes, simple to complex, insofar as allowed for complexities in an underlying scatterer distribution. It is demonstrated that as the spatial distribution ranges from Poisson (a narrow distribution) to multi-fractal (much broader distribution), uncertainty in a measurement increases if the rule for pulse averaging goes unchanged from its Poisson distribution reference county. [A bounded cascade is used for the multi-fractal distribution, a regularly observed distribution vis-a-vis cloud liquid water content.] The resultant measurement uncertainty leads to a fundamental source of error in the estimation of rain rate from radar measurements, one that has been disregarded since the early 1950s when radar sets first began to be used for rainfall measuring. It is shown how this source of error can be 'managed'--under the assumption that number of data analysis experiments would be carried out, experiments involving pulse-by-pulse measurements obtained from a radar set modified to output individual pulses of reflectivity factor. For practical applications, a new parameter called normalized k-sample intensity invariance is developed to enable defining the required pulse average count according to a preferred degree of uncertainty.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Electrical, Electronic, and Electromechanical (EEE) parts management and control requirements for NASA space flight programs

This document establishes electrical, electronic, and electromechanical (EEE) parts management and control requirements for contractors providing and maintaining space flight and mission-essential or critical ground support equipment for NASA space flight programs. Although the text is worded 'the contractor shall,' the requirements are also to be used by NASA Headquarters and field installations for developing program/project parts management and control requirements for in-house and contracted efforts. This document places increased emphasis on parts programs to ensure that reliability and quality are considered through adequate consideration of the selection, control, and application of parts. It is the intent of this document to identify disciplines that can be implemented to obtain reliable parts which meet mission needs. The parts management and control requirements described in this document are to be selectively applied, based on equipment class and mission needs. Individual equipment needs should be evaluated to determine the extent to which each requirement should be implemented on a procurement. Utilization of this document does not preclude the usage of other documents. The entire process of developing and implementing requirements is referred to as 'tailoring' the program for a specific project. Some factors that should be considered in this tailoring process include program phase, equipment category and criticality, equipment complexity, and mission requirements. Parts management and control requirements advocated by this document directly support the concept of 'reliability by design' and are an integral part of system reliability and maintainability. Achieving the required availability and mission success objectives during operation depends on the attention given reliability and maintainability in the design phase. Consequently, it is intended that the requirements described in this document are consistent with those of NASA publications, 'Reliability Program Requirements for Aeronautical and Space System Contractors,' NHB 5300.4(1A-l); 'Maintainability Program Requirements for Space Systems,' NHB 5300.4(1E); and 'Quality Program Provisions for Aeronautical and Space System Contractors,' NHB 5300.4(1B).

Source record↗

Lessons Learned on Operating and Preparing Operations for a Technology Mission from the Perspective of the Earth Observing-1 Mission

The New Millennium Program's first Earth-observing mission (EO-1) is a technology validation mission. It is managed by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland and is scheduled for launch in the summer of 2000. The purpose of this mission is to flight-validate revolutionary technologies that will contribute to the reduction of cost and increase of capabilities for future land imaging missions. In the EO-1 mission, there are five instrument, five spacecraft, and three supporting technologies to flight-validate during a year of operations. EO-1 operations and the accompanying ground system were intended to be simple in order to maintain low operational costs. For purposes of formulating operations, it was initially modeled as a small science mission. However, it quickly evolved into a more complex mission due to the difficulties in effectively integrating all of the validation plans of the individual technologies. As a consequence, more operational support was required to confidently complete the on-orbit validation of the new technologies. This paper will outline the issues and lessons learned applicable to future technology validation missions. Examples of some of these include the following: (1) operational complexity encountered in integrating all of the validation plans into a coherent operational plan, (2) initial desire to run single shift operations subsequently growing to 6 "around-the-clock" operations, (3) managing changes in the technologies that ultimately affected operations, (4) necessity for better team communications within the project to offset the effects of change on the Ground System Developers, Operations Engineers, Integration and Test Engineers, S/C Subsystem Engineers, and Scientists, and (5) the need for a more experienced Flight Operations Team to achieve the necessary operational flexibility. The discussion will conclude by providing several cost comparisons for developing operations from previous missions to EO-1 and discuss some details that might be done differently for future technology validation missions.

Mandl, Dan↗

Data for The Value of Reversible Carbon Storage in a Zero-Emissions World

Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to stabilize global temperature. CDR can be achieved via ecosystem-based approaches that are cost-effective but reversible (e.g., soil and forest management) or by more durable but expensive approaches (e.g., direct air capture coupled with geologic storage). Here, we examine trade-offs between these approaches, focusing on timing, climate impacts, and cost. We simulated reversible carbon accrual for a range of CDR contract structures using a general minimalist model of ecosystem carbon cycling, and parameterized it to simulate US agricultural soil management─specifically cover cropping─as a case study. We then quantified the resulting impact on atmospheric carbon and global temperature using a climate model emulator. We find that maintaining a patchwork of reversible CDR projects by replacing lapsed projects with new projects can reduce warming by 22–195 μ°C in 2100 and that the magnitude of this cooling effect depends on how effectively the patchwork is maintained. Long-term maintenance of reversible CDR projects requires institutional stability that cannot be guaranteed over multiple decades. Consequently, effective CDR ultimately requires replacing reversible projects with durable projects. To address this problem, we modeled the cost of replacing reversible agricultural soil CDR with geologic CDR. We found that using reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR is potentially more cost-effective as a global cooling strategy (0.20–0.81 billion USD per μ°C avoided) than perpetual maintenance of reversible CDR (0.32–1.31 billion USD per μ°C avoided) or an immediate transition to durable CDR (1.37–2.19 billion USD per μ°C avoided). However, we emphasize that institutional commitments to maintain reversible CDR projects cannot be guaranteed. Reliance on reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR therefore carries an unknown amount of risk and will only function if efforts to maintain reversible CDR are robust.

Carbon↗

Online and Offline Identification of False Data Injection Attacks in Battery Sensors Using a Single Particle Model

The cells in battery energy storage systems are monitored, protected, and controlled by battery management systems whose sensors are susceptible to cyberattacks. False data injection attacks (FDIAs) targeting batteries’ voltage sensors affect cell protection functions and the estimation of critical battery states like the state of charge (SoC). Inaccurate SoC estimation could result in battery overcharging and over discharging, which can have disastrous consequences on grid operations. This paper proposes a three-pronged online and offline method to detect, identify, and classify FDIAs corrupting the voltage sensors of a battery stack. To accurately model the dynamics of the series-connected cells a single particle model is used and to estimate the SoC, the unscented Kalman filter is employed. FDIA detection, identification, and classification was accomplished using a tuned cumulative sum (CUSUM) algorithm, which was compared with a baseline method, the chi-squared error detector. Online simulations and offline batch simulations were performed to determine the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Throughout the batch simulations, the CUSUM algorithm detected attacks, with no false positives, in 99.83% of cases, identified the corrupted sensor in 97% of cases, and determined if the attack was positively or negatively biased in 97% of cases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Constellation X-Ray Mission and Support

This is the Third Annual Report of work performed by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO) for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) under Cooperative Agreement NCC5-3681. The Agreement is entitled 'Constellation X-ray Mission Study and Support.' Work performed through January 31, 2001 was reported in a supplement to the Second Annual Report. That supplemental report was submitted in order to obtain funding subsequent to March 2001 which has, as the result of prior funding actions, become the de facto beginning of the funding year under the Agreement. This report covers the balance of the third year of the Agreement from February 1, 2001 through September 30, 2001. The Agreement as currently configured runs for two more years. When funding is significantly different from the originally approved amounts, SAO submits a revised budget. One such revision was submitted last year and was the basis for funding a portion of the work reported here. This report summarizes the main areas of SAO activity. Most of the work has been performed jointly with personnel from GSFC and Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Consequently, we do not claim that such activities were carried out exclusively by SAO. Rather, we describe SAO participation in these efforts. Under the Agreement, SAO performed work in seven major areas of activity. These areas related to: (1) Constellation X-ray Mission Facility Definition Team and Study Management; (2) Science Support; (3) Spectroscopy X-ray Telescope (SXT); (4) Systems Engineering; (5) Travel; and (6) In-house Management and Coordination.

Tananbaum, H.↗

Alternative Perspectives on Risk

The goal of the commercial air transport system is to provide air transportation to the flying public at an acceptable cost with minimal risk. in an ideal situation these three goals would support each other. In fact, it is sometimes the case that the goals conflict: getting passengers to their destinations on time may conflict with fixing a minor mechanical malfunction that may or may not impact safety; flying a route that will avoid turbulence, thereby providing passengers with a more comfortable ride, may consume more fuel; managing traffic density may mean aircraft are delayed or must use an approach that will result in a long taxi to their gates, costing time and fuel. Various players in the system--pilots, dispatchers, controllers, as well as managers in the airline carriers and traffic management system--make decisions every day that involve trade-offs of benefits and costs. The prospect of revisions in the air traffic management system, with shifts in responsibilities from controllers to users, including airline operations center personnel and pilots, means that individuals may be performing either new jobs or old jobs under new guidance. It will be essential to know how the various players (a) perceive the risks and benefits associated with the decisions they will make under the old and new control structures, and (b) how much risk they are willing to accept in making decisions. Risk is here defined as the probability and magnitude of negative events (after Slovic, 1987). Of primary interest are risks associated with traffic, weather, and operational factors such as schedule, fuel consumption, and passenger service. Previous research has documented differences between groups in perceptions of risks associated with both everyday and aviation related situations. Risk perception varies as a function of familiarity with the situation, degree to which one is potentially affected by the risk, the level of control one has over the situation, and one's level of experience and responsibility in the situation. In our presentation we will consider several factors that may influence differences in risk perception, risk tolerance and risk management among the three major categories of participants in the aviation system (pilots, dispatchers, and controllers). Primary factors that may affect risk attitudes (the collective term we will use for the three components of risk) include: expertise or job-specific knowledge or training, personal involvement or vulnerability to consequences, goals, time horizon (imminence of consequences), span of control and type of control, and information or technology support. These will be considered in the context of five different types of risk (physical threat, economic, social, legal, and ethical). A study designed to study differences between pilots and controllers in their perceptions and responses to traffic risks under the present and a user-preferred control situation will be described. Future studies involving dispatchers' risk perceptions regarding various types of risk will be discussed.

Davison, Jeannie↗

Monitoring the vernal advancement and retrogradation (green wave effect) of natural vegetation

The author has identified the following significant results. From the data that have been analyzed thus far, it is apparent that certain parameters of the vegetation (green biomass and vegetation moisture content) are well correlated with ERTS data at some sites, yet the relationship is poor at other locations. The analyses indicate that the green wave development (spring) can be readily detected in the Great Plains Corridor. Consequently, ERTS-1 data provide a new tool for monitoring range readiness on a regional basis. The onset of summer drought and its duration can also be monitored. Data from ten G.P.C. sites suggest that the satellite coverage has been adequate to monitor the status of rangeland vegetation for regional management purposes.

Rouse, J. W., Jr.↗

Mission Study and Optics Development Support for Constellation X

This document is the Final Report for NASA Cooperative Agreement NCC5-268 between NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO). The Agreement is entitled "Constellation X-ray Mission Study and Optics Development." The report is required by the terms of the Agreement. There were four modifications to the Agreement. The period of performance was from February 1, 1998 through March 31, 1999. The report summarizes the main areas of SAO activity. Other than the design and analysis related to the SXT Mirror (see Section 4.0), most of the work was carried out jointly with personnel from GSFC and Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Consequently, we do not mean to imply that such activities were carried out exclusively by SAO. Rather, we have tried to describe the SAO participation in these efforts.The report summarizes the main areas of SAO activity. Other than the design and analysis related to the SXT Mirror (see Section 4.0), most of the work was carried out jointly with personnel from GSFC and Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Consequently, we do not mean to imply that such activities were carried out exclusively by SAO. Rather, we have tried to describe the SAO participation in these efforts. As is appropriate to a Cooperative Agreement, SAO worked with GSFC in an integrated team mode. SAO was involved in the mission management, technology development, and mission definition. The organization is shown in Figure 1. While overall management responsibility resided with GSFC, scientific lead and subordinate responsibilities were shared between GSFC and SAO.

Tananbaum, H.↗