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Understanding Heating in Active Region Cores through Machine Learning. I. Numerical Modeling and Predicted Observables

To adequately constrain the frequency of energy deposition in active region cores in the solar corona, systematic comparisons between detailed models and observational data are needed. In this paper, we describe a pipeline for forward modeling active region emission using magnetic field extrapolations and field-aligned hydrodynamic models. We use this pipeline to predict time-dependent emission from active region NOAA 1158 for low-, intermediate-, and high-frequency nanoflares. In each pixel of our predicted multi-wavelength, time-dependent images, we compute two commonly used diagnostics: the emission measure slope and the time lag. We find that signatures of the heating frequency persist in both of these diagnostics. In particular, our results show that the distribution of emission measure slopes narrows and the mean decreases with decreasing heating frequency and that the range of emission measure slopes is consistent with past observational and modeling work. Furthermore, we find that the time lag becomes increasingly spatially coherent with decreasing heating frequency while the distribution of time lags across the whole active region becomes more broad with increasing heating frequency. In a follow-up paper, we train a random forest classifier on these predicted diagnostics and use this model to classify real observations of NOAA 1158 in terms of the underlying heating frequency.

UV radiation↗

Core-Mantle Partitioning of Volatile Elements and the Origin of Volatile Elements in Earth and Moon

Depletions of volatile siderophile elements (VSE; Ga, Ge, In, As, Sb, Sn, Bi, Zn, Cu, Cd) in mantles of Earth and Moon, constrain the origin of volatile elements in these bodies, and the overall depletion of volatile elements in Moon relative to Earth. A satisfactory explanation has remained elusive [1,2]. We examine the depletions of VSE in Earth and Moon and quantify the amount of depletion due to core formation and volatility of potential building blocks. We calculate the composition of the Earth's PUM during continuous accretion scenarios with constant and variable fO2. Results suggest that the VSE can be explained by a rather simple scenario of continuous accretion leading to a high PT metal-silicate equilibrium scenario that establishes the siderophile element content of Earth's PUM near the end of accretion [3]. Core formation models for the Moon explain most VSE, but calculated contents of In, Sn, and Zn (all with Tc < 750 K) are all still too high after core formation, and must therefore require an additional process to explain the depletions in the lunar mantle. We discuss possible processes including magmatic degassing, evaporation, condensation, and vapor-liquid fractionation in the lunar disk.

Righter, Kevin↗

Examining transport and integrated modeling predictive capabilities for negative-triangularity scenarios

This paper investigates the predictive capabilities of TGYRO and TGLF models in assessing the performance of negative triangularity (NT) plasmas compared to positive triangularity (PT) plasmas in fusion devices. TGYRO predicts kinetic profiles, while TGLF analyzes turbulent transport. The study reveals that TGYRO reasonably predicts NT profiles similar to PT, although it overpredicts the high-power scenarios where there is increased experimental MHD activity. TGLF analysis finds reduced linear growth rates in NT and altered flux spectra relative to PT. Additionally, the TGLF SAT0 saturation model is observed to predict high-k transport and a reduction of particle transport with the electron temperature gradient. These findings are further corroborated by core-pedestal modeling using the Stability Transport Equilibrium Pedestal workflow, showing stronger confinement improvements in NT, particularly at higher power densities for the SAT0 saturation model. Furthermore, the study underscores the importance of accurately capturing turbulence saturation mechanisms for NT in order to project its performance accurately in fusion reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Steady flows at the top of earth's core derived from geomagnetic field models

Select models of the main geomagnetic field and its secular variation are extrapolated to the base of an insulating mantle and used to estimate the adjacent fluid motion of a perfectly conducting outer core. The assumption of steady motion provides formally unique solutions and is tested along with that of no upwelling. The hypothesis of no upwelling is found to be substantially worse than that of steady motion. Although the actual motion is not thought to be steady, the large-scale secular variation at the top of the core can be adequately described by a large-scale, combined toroidal-poloidal circulation which is steady for intervals of at least a decade or two. The derived flows include a bulk westward drift but are complicated by superimposed jets, gyres, and surface divergence indicative of vigorous vertical motion at depth. The circulation pattern and key global properties including rms speed, upwelling, and westward drift are found to be fairly insensitive to variations in modeling parameters.

Voorhies, Coerte V.↗

Final Report on Predictive Analyses of PRD as Function of Anomalies

This report summarizes the work completed in FY-2024 to analyze the power reactivity decrement (PRD) concepts of the ARC-100 core. The PRD has been traditionally defined by the reactivity change from a hot zero power (HZP) to a particular power. Consequently, the PRD accounts for the core reactivity changes due to increase coolant temperature gradient axially and radially across the core, and increased fuel temperature. The coolant temperature gradient leads to sodium and structure density changes, to radial core expansion from assembly flowering and bowing (due to axial and radial temperature gradients within the assemblies), and to control rod driveline thermal expansion. The fuel temperature increase associated with coolant temperature and power increases leads to Doppler effect and axial thermal expansion. In this work, the normal operating Hot Full Power (HFP) state is the only power level of interest, so analyses focus on the PRD calculated from HZP to HFP. The PRD has been used to assess the reactor safety features asymptotically in unprotected accident scenarios, including the loss of heat sink (LOHS), loss of flow (LOF), and transient overpower (TOP) without scram. The PRD concept relies on the “global” reactivity coefficients A, B, and C that are estimated based on “individual” reactivity effects (Doppler, sodium density, etc.). The objectives of this work are: 1) to improve and verify the methodology used to calculate the ABC coefficients used in the PRD, 2) to assess if the PRD can be used to reliably identify abnormal events. This report fulfills the FY-2024 scope of WBS#1.15.8.3 activity, “ANL0120 – Predictive Analyses of PRD as function of deformation”. The PRD concept is described in Sections 2. Additional effort in refining the methodology for core bowing modeling is performed in Sections 3. Then, two verification exercises are proposed in Section 4 to benchmark these coefficients based on direct neutronic-only calculations and on dynamic core transient simulations. Finally, the PRD approach is assessed for the detection of several unexpected events, such as primary flow perturbation or improper fuel loading, in Section 5.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

The loss and depth of CO2 ice in comet nuclei

The chemical differentiation of a homogeneous, initially unmantled cometary nucleus whose composition encompasses water ice, unclathrated CO2 ice, and silicate dust, is presently simulated by an analytical model to test whether the selective sublimation of any free CO2 ice in the new comet will produce a surface layer of water ice and dust covering the undifferentiated core. The model encompasses the effects of nucleus rotation, arbitrary rotatiuon axis orientation, latitude, nucleus heat conduction, and CO2 gas outflow restriction by the water ice and dust layer.

Fanale, Fraser P.↗

Ellipticals with kinematically distinct cores : HST imaging of the nuclear structure of IC 1459

The elliptical galaxy IC 1459 has one of the strongest counter-rotating core components of any observed elliptical. Here we present Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Planetary Camera images of the center of IC 1459. Before deconvolution, our V band images reveal a bright point source at the galaxy nucleus, and dust near the nucleus. After removal of the central point source, deconvolution and model fitting, we show that the central starlight profile is better fit by a 'cusp' model than an isothermal core model. The photometric properties of the stellar light are comparable to those of other ellipticals without counter-rotating core components. There is an indication of a central stellar disk, although its detection is complicated by the extensive dust. Although the velocity field of the emission-line gas is ordered, the dust distribution is very irregular, and indicates nonequilibrium motions. The irregular dust distribution suggests that material is currently infalling and may be fueling the active nucleus. There is no direct evidence which relates the dust and gas to the peculiar stellar kinematics.

Forbes, Duncan A.↗

Power and particle exhaust for the ARC fusion power plant

To successfully show that fusion is an attractive energy source, the ARCTM fusion power plant will need to operate with a robust, integrated power and particle exhaust solution. To maximise ARC’s fusion power output while avoiding excessive erosion of the plasma-facing components, we will need to radiatively dissipate most of the power crossing the last-closed flux surface, injecting radiating impurities such as argon or neon to access divertor detachment. Divertor detachment will need to be integrated with a high-performance core plasma, and with efficient impurity pumping to prevent the accumulation of helium ash in the core. To access and control detachment in high-performance plasmas, we have designed ARC with up–down-symmetric divertors, with secondary X-points in long, tightly baffled outer legs. Using a core-edge modelling workflow, we predict that with this divertor design, ARC will access detachment with modest argon seeding in the divertor (c Ar,div ∼0.9%), which should have minimal impact on the core ( Z eff,core <0.5) for reasonable argon enrichment (c Ar,div /c Ar,core =6). Due to the high predicted divertor neutral pressure (p div ∼20 Pa), we predict that ARC will sufficiently pump helium to limit ash accumulation in the core (c He,core <2%) for a helium enrichment of c He,div /c He,core =0.4. ARC’s divertor design is expected to increase the stability of a detachment front in the outer divertor leg, helping to prevent divertor reattachment during smaller heat-flux transients such as scrape-off-layer filaments associated with the quasi-continuous exhaust regime. However, this buffering will not be sufficient to prevent divertor reattachment during large type-I edge-localised modes (ELMs), and as such these will need to be avoided on ARC. Experiments on SPARC will be used to select an integrated scenario which avoids or mitigates type-I-ELMs while maintaining access to detachment, good core fusion performance and sufficient impurity exhaust. SPARC experiments will also be used to finalise ARC’s divertor design, by studying the impact of magnetic and first-wall geometry on detachment stability, impurity enrichment and neutral baffling under conditions similar to those expected for ARC. In conclusion, our analysis finds that ARC will have a viable power and particle exhaust solution which is compatible with high-power operations, and this solution will be validated in experiments on SPARC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

GIScience in the era of Artificial Intelligence: a research agenda towards Autonomous GIS

The advent of generative AI exemplified by large language models (LLMs) opens new ways to represent and compute geographic information and transcends the process of geographic knowledge production, driving geographic information systems (GIS) towards autonomous GIS. Leveraging LLMs as the decision core, autonomous GIS can independently generate and execute geoprocessing workflows to perform spatial analysis. In this vision paper, we further elaborate on the concept of autonomous GIS and present a conceptual framework that defines its five autonomous goals, five levels of autonomy, five core functions, and three operational scales. We demonstrate how autonomous GIS could perform geospatial data retrieval, spatial analysis, and map making with four proof-of-concept GIS agents. We conclude by identifying critical challenges and future research directions, including fine-tuning and self-growing decision-cores, autonomous modelling, and examining the societal and practical implications of autonomous GIS. By establishing the groundwork for a paradigm shift in GIScience, this paper envisions a future where GIS moves beyond traditional workflows to autonomously reason, derive, innovate, and advance geospatial solutions to pressing global challenges. Meanwhile, we emphasize that as we design and deploy increasingly intelligent geospatial systems, we carry a responsibility to ensure they are developed in socially responsible ways, serve the public good, and support the continued value of human geographic insight in an AI-augmented future.

Autonomous GI↗

The magnetic earth as seen from Magsat, initial results

Initial results of the Magsat mission are presented, in keeping with the categories of earth core field, the crustal or anomaly field of the earth, and external fields. It is noted that one major advantage of orbital magnetic field surveys is their ability to obtain a global set of magnetic field measurements of uniform precision and accuracy at a single epoch, aiding the derivation of the core field models that are a prerequisite for further data analysis. The ability to isolate fields from crustal sources was unexpected, because of the low amplitudes of such fields by comparison with those of the core and those external to the earth. The most significant external-field finding has been an east-west component variation near the dip equator.

Langel, R. A.↗

Probing the presently tenuous link between comets and the origin of life

The possibilities of using millimeter-wave technology to probe the subsurface processes of comets to investigate links between cometary materials and the origins of life are explored. It is noted that current theories hold that the necessities for life to begin comprise a fairly uniform temperature, the presence of a solvent to give materials mobility, and the presence of atoms which can form long chains of molecules. Consideration is given to two cometary nuclei models: a core with an equal amount of liquid water and lunar material, and a nucleus with equal amounts of frozen water ice and lunar material. Solutions to the radiative transfer equation for the two models are presented to characterize identifiable emissions using radiometric spectrometer instrumentation on a spacecraft. Particular species such as OH, CN, HCN, and glycine are expected to be detectable if present.

Hobbs, R. W.↗

Fitting a 3-D analytic model of the coronal mass ejection to observations

The application of an analytic magnetohydrodynamic model is presented to observations of the time-dependent explusion of 3D coronal mass ejections (CMEs) out of the solar corona. This model relates the white-light appearance of the CME to its internal magnetic field, which takes the form of a closed bubble, filled with a partly anchored, twisted magnetic flux rope and embedded in an otherwise open background field. The density distribution frozen into the expanding CME expanding field is fully 3D, and can be integrated along the line of sight to reproduce observations of scattered white light. The model is able to reproduce the three conspicuous features often associated with CMEs as observed with white-light coronagraphs: a surrounding high-density region, an internal low-density cavity, and a high-density core. The model also describes the self-similar radial expansion of these structures. By varying the model parameters, the model can be fitted directly to observations of CMEs. It is shown how the model can quantitatively match the polarized brightness contrast of a dark cavity emerging through the lower corona as observed by the HAO Mauna Loa K-coronameter to within the noise level of the data.

Gibson, S. E.↗

Core Formation on Asteroid 4 Vesta: Iron Rain in a Silicate Magma Ocean

Geochemical observations of the eucrite and diogenite meteorites, together with observations made by NASA's Dawn spacecraft, suggest that Vesta resembles H chondrites in bulk chemical composition, possibly with about 25% of a CM-chondrite like composition added in. For this model, the core is 15% by mass (or 8 volume %) of the asteroid. The abundances of moderately siderophile elements (Ni, Co, Mo, W, and P) in eucrites require that essentially all of the metallic phase in Vesta segregated to form a core prior to eucrite solidification. Melting in the Fe-Ni-S system begins at a cotectic temperature of ~940 deg. C. Only about 40% of the total metal phase, or 3-4 volume % of Vesta, melts prior to the onset of silicate melting. Liquid iron in solid silicate initially forms isolated pockets of melt; connected melt channels, which are necessary if the metal is to segregate from the silicate, are only possible when the metal phase exceeds about 5 volume %. Thus, metal segregation to form a core does not occur prior to the onset of silicate melting.

Kiefer, Walter S.↗

Velocity-Controlled Magnetic Bearings with Solid Cores

A methodology for designing velocity-controlled magnetic bearings with laminated cores has been extended to those with solid cores. The eddy-current effect of the solid cores is modeled as an opposing magnetomotive force. The bearing control dynamics is formulated in a dimensionless fashion which can be readily reviewed on a root-locus plot for stability. This facilitates the controller design and tuning process for solid core magnetic bearings using no displacement sensors.

Chen, H. Ming↗

Differentiation of Asteroid 4 Vesta: Core Formation by Iron Rain in a Silicate Magma Ocean

Geochemical observations of the eucrite and diogenite meteorites, together with observations made by NASA's Dawn spacecraft while orbiting asteroid 4 Vesta, suggest that Vesta resembles H chondrites in bulk chemical composition, possible with about 25 percent of a CM-chondrite like composition added in. For this model, the core is 15 percent by mass (or 8 percent by volume) of the asteroid, with a composition of 73.7 percent by weight Fe, 16.0 percent by weight S, and 10.3 percent by weight Ni. The abundances of moderately siderophile elements (Ni, Co, Mo, W, and P) in eucrites require that essentially all of the metallic phase in Vesta segregated to form a core prior to eucrite solidification. The combination of the melting phase relationships for the silicate and metal phases, together with the moderately siderophile element concentrations together require that complete melting of the metal phase occurred (temperature is greater than1350 degrees Centigrade), along with substantial (greater than 40 percent) melting of the silicate material. Thus, core formation on Vesta occurs as iron rain sinking through a silicate magma ocean.

Kiefer, Walter S.↗

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils during CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entrainment using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H2Ov), and total water (H2Ot) aboard NASA's WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the free troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils During CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entertainment Using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H20v), and total water (H20t) aboard NASA's . WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the fiee troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗

A High-Fidelity Model of the Peach Bottom 2 Turbine-Trip Benchmark Using VERA

This work presents a high-fidelity simulation of the Peach Bottom turbine trip (PBTT) benchmark using the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA), a multiphysics reactor modeling tool developed by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors energy innovation hub. The PBTT benchmark, based on a 1977 transient event at the end of cycle 2 in a General Electric Type-4 boiling water reactor (BWR), is a critical test case for validating core physics models with thermal feedback during rapid reactivity events. VERA was employed to perform end-to-end, pin-resolved simulations from conditions at the beginning of cycle 1 through the turbine-trip transient, incorporating detailed neutron transport, fuel depletion, and subchannel thermal hydraulics. The simulation reproduced key benchmark observables with high accuracy: the peak power excursion occurred at 0.75 s, matching the scram time and closely aligning with the benchmark average of 0.742 s; the simulated maximum power spike was approximately 7600 MW, which is within 3% of the benchmark average of 7400 MW; and void-collapse dynamics were consistent with benchmark expectations. Reactivity predictions during cycles 1 and 2 remained within 1500 pcm and 400 pcm of criticality, respectively. These results confirm VERA’s ability to model complex coupled neutronic and thermal hydraulic behavior in a BWR turbine-trip transient, which will support its use in future studies of modeling dryout, fuel performance, and uncertainty quantification for transients of this type.

BWR↗