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At least 289 records · Page 16

[Space Weather Impact on the Electricity Market]

Forbes & St. Cyr (2004, hereafter "FISC") have provided evidence that the electricity market can be impacted by space weather. Our analysis indicated that the estimated market impact for PJM was 3.7 % or approximately $500 million dollars over the 19 month sample period. Kappenman has taken exception to this estimate and contends that we have exaggerated the magnitude of the problem that space weather poses to PJM. There are four specific issues: (1) he claims that we have ignored relevant literature; (2) he asserts that Dst is not an appropriate proxy for GICs in PJM; (3) he charges that our findings are inconsistent with the impact of the 17 September 2000 storm; and (4) he alleges that our discussion of October 2003 storms is misleading. In our article, we have explained our methodology, multivariate regression analysis, with a particular focus on how it compares to correlation analysis. We have also explained the limitations of our analysis. We noted that "...While the Dstlprice relationship was found to be robust, the precise estimate should be treated with a relatively high degree of caution given that econometric modeling is not an exact science as well as the fact that the measure of space weather may be a poor proxy for GICs" (paragraph 96). We have also noted that additional research using local magnetometer data are needed (paragraph 97). We did not claim that that our findings for PJM are representative of the impact of space weather on other power grids. On the contrary, we noted that ... "Only analysis of other power grids will tell. " (paragraph 97). Kappenman inaccurately asserts that we have indicated that our findings . . . "imply much higher total costs are likely across the US and elsewhere in the world." He also inaccurately asserts that we have claimed that " . . . Dst is the most suited proxy for GIC in the PJM grid.. ." Moreover, he inaccurately refers to our analysis as a correlation study that uses Dst as quasi-binary indicator.

SaintCyr, O. Chris↗

Analysis of space environment effects on active fiber optic links orbited aboard the LDEF

The interim analysis correlates the results of the 'Preliminary Analysis of WL Experiment no. 701, Space Environment Effects on Operating Optic Systems' (NASA Report CP-3134) with space simulated post retrieval terrestrial studies performed on the M0004 experiment. Temperature cycling measurements were performed on the active optical data links for the purpose of assessing link signal to noise ratio and bit error rate performance some 69 months following the experiment deployment in low earth orbit. The early results indicate a high correlation between pre-orbit, orbit recorded, and post orbit functionality of the first known and longest space demonstration of operating optic fibers.

Monarski, T. W.↗

Digital Speckle Photography of Subpixel Displacements of Speckle Structures Based on Analysis of Their Spatial Spectra

We have investigated the capabilities of the method of digital speckle interferometry for determining subpixel displacements of a speckle structure formed by a displaceable or deformable object with a scattering surface. An analysis of spatial spectra of speckle structures makes it possible to perform measurements with a subpixel accuracy and to extend the lower boundary of the range of measurements of displacements of speckle structures to the range of subpixel values. The method is realized on the basis of digital recording of the images of undisplaced and displaced speckle structures, their spatial frequency analysis using numerically specified constant phase shifts, and correlation analysis of spatial spectra of speckle structures. Transformation into the frequency range makes it possible to obtain quantities to be measured with a subpixel accuracy from the shift of the interference-pattern minimum in the diffraction halo by introducing an additional phase shift into the complex spatial spectrum of the speckle structure or from the slope of the linear plot of the function of accumulated phase difference in the field of the complex spatial spectrum of the displaced speckle structure. The capabilities of the method have been investigated in natural experiment.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

{gamma}-RAY LUMINOSITY FUNCTION AND THE CONTRIBUTION TO EXTRAGALACTIC {gamma}-RAY BACKGROUND FOR FERMI-DETECTED BLAZARS

We study {gamma}-ray luminosity functions (GLFs) and the contribution to the extragalactic diffuse {gamma}-rays for blazars. After using a clean blazar sample in which 485 blazars are observed at both the 8.4 GHz and {approx} GeV bands, we investigate the radio/{gamma}-ray luminosity correlation and find out that a strong correlation exists between the radio and {gamma}-ray luminosities using the partial correlation analysis method. Based on such a correlation, we obtain the GLF, while also considering the GLF based on studies of the X-ray luminosity function of active galactic nuclei and the GLF of the EGRET blazars. K-S tests indicate that these three kinds of GLFs are consistent with the observed data of our sample in a reasonable parameter range. Using these GLFs, we further investigate the blazar contribution to the extragalactic diffuse {gamma}-ray background (EGRB). Our results show that (1) the contribution of blazars are {approx}21.3% {+-} 2.7%, {approx}12.9% {+-} 1.7%, and {approx}37.9% {+-} 4.8% of unresolved Fermi EGRB flux for the three GLFs and (2) the contribution of flat-spectrum radio quasars are {approx}11.2% {+-} 1.6%, {approx}6.9% {+-} 1.0%, and {approx}9.0% {+-} 1.2% of unresolved Fermi EGRB flux for the three GLFs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

What drives galaxy quenching? A deep connection between galaxy kinematics and quenching in the local Universe

ABSTRACT We develop a 2D inclined rotating disc model, which we apply to the stellar velocity maps of 1862 galaxies taken from the MaNGA survey (SDSS public Data Release 15) . We use a random forest classifier to identify the kinematic parameters that are most connected to galaxy quenching. We find that kinematic parameters that relate predominantly to the disc (such as the mean rotational velocity) and parameters that characterize whether a galaxy is rotation- or dispersion-dominated (such as the ratio of rotational velocity to velocity dispersion) are not fundamentally linked to the quenching of star formation. Instead, we find overwhelmingly that it is the absolute level of velocity dispersion (a property that relates primarily to a galaxy’s bulge/spheroidal component) that is most important for separating star-forming and quenched galaxies. Furthermore, a partial correlation analysis shows that many commonly discussed correlations between galaxy properties and quenching are spurious, and that the fundamental correlation is between quenching and velocity dispersion. In particular, we find that at fixed velocity dispersion, there is only a very weak dependence of quenching on the disc properties, whereby more discy galaxies are slightly more likely to be forming stars. By invoking the tight relationship between black hole mass and velocity dispersion, and noting that black hole mass traces the total energy released by active galactic nuclei (AGNs), we argue that these data support a scenario in which quenching occurs by preventive feedback from AGNs. The kinematic measurements from this work are publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Detection of significant cm to sub-mm band radio and γ-ray correlated variability in Fermi bright blazars

The exact location of the γ-ray emitting region in blazars is still controversial. In order to attack this problem we present first results of a cross-correlation analysis between radio (11 cm to 0.8 mm wavelength, F-GAMMA programme) and γ-ray (0.1–300 GeV) ~3.5 yr light curves of 54 Fermi-bright blazars. We perform a source stacking analysis and estimate significances and chance correlations using mixed source correlations. These results reveal: (i) the first highly significant multiband radio and γ-ray correlations (radio lagging γ rays) when averaging over the whole sample, (ii) average time delays (source frame: 76 ± 23 to 7 ± 9 d), systematically decreasing from cm to mm/sub-mm bands with a frequency dependence τr, γ(ν) ∝ ν -1 , in good agreement with jet opacity dominated by synchrotron self-absorption, (iii) a bulk γ-ray production region typically located within/upstream of the 3 mm core region (τ3mm, γ = 12 ± 8 d), (iv) mean distances between the region of γ-ray peak emission and the radio ‘τ = 1 photosphere’ decreasing from 9.8 ± 3.0 pc (11 cm) to 0.9 ± 1.1 pc (2 mm) and 1.4 ± 0.8 pc (0.8 mm), (v) 3 mm/γ-ray correlations in nine individual sources at a significance level where one is expected by chance (probability: 4 × 10 -6 ), (vi) opacity and ‘time lag core shift’ estimates for quasar 3C 454.3 providing a lower limit for the distance of the bulk γ-ray production region from the supermassive black hole (SMBH) of ~0.8–1.6 pc, i.e. at the outer edge of the broad-line region (BLR) or beyond. A 3 mm τ = 1 surface at ~2–3 pc from the jet base (i.e. well outside the ‘canonical BLR’) finally suggests that BLR material extends to several parsec distances from the SMBH.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measurement of the Sensitivity of Two-Particle Correlations in $\mathcal{pp}$ Collisions to the Presence of Hard Scatterings

A key open question in the study of multiparticle production in high-energy pp collisions is the relationship between the “ridge”—i.e., the observed azimuthal correlations between particles in the underlying event that extend over all rapidities—and hard or semihard scattering processes. In particular, it is not known whether jets or their soft fragments are correlated with particles in the underlying event. To address this question, two-particle correlations are measured in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$=13 TeV using data collected by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC, with an integrated luminosity of 15.8 pb -1 , in two different configurations. In the first case, charged particles associated with jets are excluded from the correlation analysis, while in the second case, correlations are measured between particles within jets and charged particles from the underlying event. Second-order flow coefficients, v2, are presented as a function of event multiplicity and transverse momentum. These measurements show that excluding particles associated with jets does not affect the measured correlations. Moreover, particles associated with jets do not exhibit any significant azimuthal correlations with the underlying event, ruling out hard processes contributing to the ridge.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Experimental Analysis of the Effects of Simulator Complexity on Human Performance

Human Reliability Analysis predicts accidents caused by human errors and is an important factor in Probabilistic Safety Assessment that comprehensively evaluates the safety of nuclear power plants. This study compares and analyzes the human performance of nuclear power plant operators according to the simulator complexity as part of the HRA data collection support method development project conducted by Idaho National Laboratory. This experiment was conducted by setting two types of simulators and scenarios as independent variables. The data collected by conducting the experiments in two different simulators were analyzed using an analysis of variance test and a correlation analysis, and four human performance charts were derived.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Human Performance Analysis Depending on Operator Expertise (Student vs. Operator) and Simulator Complexity (Rancor Microworld vs. Compact Nuclear Simulator)

Human reliability analysis (HRA) evaluates human errors and provides human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), which is a comprehensive safety assessment method for nuclear power plants (NPPs). Generally, HRA methods estimate HEPs based on human reliability data collected from actual historical measurement, simulator experiments, or expert judgement. Most recent HRA data collection studies focus on collecting data via full-scope main control room (MCR) simulators with actual licensed reactor operators. Contrary to this, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has adopted a different approach, which attempts to collect HRA data based on experiment using simplified simulators and student participants by following the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). This approach has a couple of advantages compared to full-scope data collection. Representatively, it has relatively low entry point for collecting HRA data, and secures large sample sizes with reasonable cost and labor. In the previous studies, we developed the SHEEP framework, then verified whether the data collected through the framework could support a representative full-scope data collection study, i.e., the Human Reliability Data Extraction (HuREX) study. Also, we analyzed human performance measurements depending on participant type (i.e., student vs. operator). In this paper, we analyze human performance data collected from an experiment comparing operator expertise and simulator complexity when using the more simplified simulator developed by INL, i.e., Rancor Microworld and the less simplified simulator, i.e., Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS) developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests and correlation analysis are used for analyzing the experimental data.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Correlation and spectral analysis of daily solar radio flux.

Correlation and spectral analysis of solar radio flux density and sunspot number near the maximum of the sunspot cycle has indicated the existence of several effects. These include (1) long period amplitude modulation of the slowly varying component (SVC) of radio emission, (2) coronal storage over a period of the order of three solar rotations, (3) fast decay (one solar rotation period or less) of gyromagnetic emissions from radio sources, and (4) shift in location of chromospheric sources compared to those of either the upper corona or the photosphere.

El-Raey, M.↗

NEW RADIO OBSERVATIONS OF ANOMALOUS MICROWAVE EMISSION IN THE H II REGION RCW175

We have observed the H II region RCW175 with the 64 m Parkes telescope at 8.4 GHz and 13.5 GHz in total intensity, and at 21.5 GHz in both total intensity and polarization. High angular resolution ranging from 1 to 2.4 arcmin, high sensitivity, and polarization capability enable us to perform a detailed study of the different constituents of the H II region. For the first time, we resolve three distinct regions at microwave frequencies, two of which are part of the same annular diffuse structure. Our observations enable us to confirm the presence of anomalous microwave emission (AME) from RCW175. Fitting the integrated flux density across the entire region with the currently available spinning dust models, using physically motivated assumptions, indicates the presence of at least two spinning dust components: a warm component (T {sub gas} = 5800 K) with a relatively large hydrogen number density n {sub H} = 26.3/cm{sup 3} and a cold component (T {sub gas} = 100 K) with a hydrogen number density of n {sub H} = 150/cm{sup 3}. The present study is an example highlighting the potential of using high angular-resolution microwave data to break model parameter degeneracies. Thanks to the spectral coverage and angular resolution of the Parkes observations, we have been able to derive one of the first AME/excess maps, at 13.5 GHz, showing clear evidence that the bulk of the anomalous emission arises in particular from one of the source components, with some additional contribution from the diffuse structure. A cross-correlation analysis with thermal dust emission has shown a high degree of correlation with one of the regions within RCW175. In the center of RCW175, we find an average polarized emission at 21.5 GHz of 2.2 ± 0.2(rand.) ± 0.3(sys.)% of the total emission, where we have included both systematic and statistical uncertainties at 68% CL. This polarized emission could be due to sub-dominant synchrotron emission from the region and is thus consistent with very faint or non-polarized emission associated with AME.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TACT: A Set of MSC/PATRAN- and MSC/NASTRAN- based Modal Correlation Tools

This paper describes the functionality and demonstrates the utility of the Test Analysis Correlation Tools (TACT), a suite of MSC/PATRAN Command Language (PCL) tools which automate the process of correlating finite element models to modal survey test data. The initial release of TACT provides a basic yet complete set of tools for performing correlation totally inside the PATRAN/NASTRAN environment. Features include a step-by-step menu structure, pre-test accelerometer set evaluation and selection, analysis and test result export/import in Universal File Format, calculation of frequency percent difference and cross-orthogonality correlation results using NASTRAN, creation and manipulation of mode pairs, and five different ways of viewing synchronized animations of analysis and test modal results. For the PATRAN-based analyst, TACT eliminates the repetitive, time-consuming and error-prone steps associated with transferring finite element data to a third-party modal correlation package, which allows the analyst to spend more time on the more challenging task of model updating. The usefulness of this software is presented using a case history, the correlation for a NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) low aspect ratio research wind tunnel model. To demonstrate the improvements that TACT offers the MSC/PATRAN- and MSC/DIASTRAN- based structural analysis community, a comparison of the modal correlation process using TACT within PATRAN versus external third-party modal correlation packages is presented.

Marlowe, Jill M.↗

Robust X-ray angular correlations for the study of meso-structures

As self-assembling nanomaterials become more sophisticated, it is becoming increasingly important to measure the structural order of finite-sized assemblies of nano-objects. These mesoscale clusters represent an acute challenge to conventional structural probes, owing to the range of implicated size scales (10 nm to several micrometres), the weak scattering signal and the dynamic nature of meso-clusters in native solution environments. The high X-ray flux and coherence of modern synchrotrons present an opportunity to extract structural information from these challenging systems, but conventional ensemble X-ray scattering averages out crucial information about local particle configurations. Conversely, a single meso-cluster scatters too weakly to recover the full diffraction pattern. Using X-ray angular cross-correlation analysis, it is possible to combine multiple noisy measurements to obtain robust structural information. This paper explores the key theoretical limits and experimental challenges that constrain the application of these methods to probing structural order in real nanomaterials. A metric is presented to quantify the signal-to-noise ratio of angular correlations, and it is used to identify several experimental artifacts that arise. In particular, it is found that background scattering, data masking and inter-cluster interference profoundly affect the quality of correlation analyses. A robust workflow is demonstrated for mitigating these effects and extracting reliable angular correlations from realistic experimental data.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Statistical characteristics of cloud variability. Part 1: Retrieved cloud liquid water path at three ARM sites: Observed cloud variability at ARM sites

Statistical characteristics of cloud variability are examined for their dependence on averaging scales and best representation of probability density function with the decade-long retrieval products of cloud liquid water path (LWP) from the tropical western Pacific (TWP), Southern Great Plains (SGP), and North Slope of Alaska (NSA) sites of the Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program. The statistical moments of LWP show some seasonal variation at the SGP and NSA sites but not much at the TWP site. It is found that the standard deviation, relative dispersion (the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean), and skewness all quickly increase with the averaging window size when the window size is small and become more or less flat when the window size exceeds 12 h. On average, the cloud LWP at the TWP site has the largest values of standard deviation, relative dispersion, and skewness, whereas the NSA site exhibits the least. Correlation analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the mean LWP and the standard deviation. The skewness is found to be closely related to the relative dispersion with a correlation coefficient of 0.6. The comparison further shows that the log normal, Weibull, and gamma distributions reasonably explain the observed relationship between skewness and relative dispersion over a wide range of scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Literature Review of Generalized Two-Dimensional Correlation Spectroscopy (2D-COS)

Generalized two-dimensional correlation spectroscopy (2D-COS) is a technique that has improved on traditional spectroscopic techniques by exposing samples to a variable amount of an external perturbation before they have been probed spectroscopically through IR, UV, Raman, etc. These perturbed signals are plotted over a second independent wavenumber axis and after mathematical manipulation, a dynamic spectrum is created that shows the synchronous and asynchronous spectra. The dynamic spectrum shows the way spectral changes in the material are correlated to each other, and a mechanism of material degradation can be proposed through a set of rules that Noda proposed. This technique is important to spectroscopic studies because of improved spectral resolution and the identification of complex or overlapping bands that cannot be distinguished in traditional analytical methods. This technique has been widely utilized since its inception, and has developed towards protein studies, as well as even wine chemistry, because of the advanced capabilities of band separation. Two-dimensional hetero-spectral correlation analysis has also been developed to find correlations in spectra with different spectroscopic probes. 2D-COS as an analytical technique has increasing avenues of expansion, and can be creatively used in many other fields in the future.

2D-COS↗

Cosmogenic Mn-53 in meteorites

The distributions of the Mn-53 contents in 106 nonantarctic and 112 antarctic chondrites were analyzed. A correlation analysis of these distributions showed that the correlation coefficient is a maximum r sub max = 0.75 plus or minus 0.03) when the histogram for antarctic chondrites is displaced by 40 plus or minus 8 dpm kg-1Fe towards lower Mn-53 contents. The distribution of Mn-53 saturated contents in nonantarctic ordinary chondrites was investigated as a function of their radiation age (T). It is found that the Mn-53 average content is higher by (21 plus or minus 9)% in H-chondrites with radiation age T approximately 12 Myr than in thse with T 12 Myr. This effect can be attributed to the fact that a considerable proportion of H-chondrites with T 12 Myr originates from a comet or from the objects of Chiron like, with the orbits more inclined to the ecliptic plane and/or more extended, which caused their irradiation by cosmic rays of higher intensity.

Alexeev, V. A.↗

Late-Notice HIE Investigation

Provide a response to MOWG action item 1410-01: Analyze close approaches which have required mission team action on short notice. Determine why the approaches were identified later in the process than most other events. Method: Performed an analysis to determine whether there is any correlation between late notice event identification and space weather, sparse tracking, or high drag objects, which would allow preventive action to be taken Examined specific late notice events identified by missions as problematic to try to identify root cause and attempt to relate them to the correlation analysis.

HIE↗

Comparison of MGII and CIV emission lines in NGC5548

Results are presented of a cross-correlation analysis in which the Seyfert galaxy NGC 5548 was monitored in the UV portion of its spectrum every 4 d for an 8-mo period by an international collaborative effort using the IUE satellite. The analysis shows that the CIV 1550-A line correlates with the underlying continuum with a time delay of about 10 d. A similar analysis for the MgII 2798-A line yields a much broader peak and a delay of about 50 +/- 20 d. Thus the MgII line emitting gas appears to be about 5 times more distant from the central source. The MgII and CIV profiles in this series of spectra are compared on the same velocity scale. The two lines are quite similar on the red side of the profile, with the CIV more extended on the blue side. The overall width of the CIV is as much as 40 percent larger, but it is definitely not larger by a factor or two or more. It is concluded that the motion of the broad line emitting gas is not dominated by the gravitational influence of a central massive object.

Ptak, R.↗