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Oh! I Slipped the Surly Bounds of Earth....and Ran into Space Weather!

Over the past decade the concept of space weather has been introduced and matured in both the scientific community and popular press. Likewise the concept of space climatology recently also is being advanced. Closely linked to these concepts are their impacts on ground- and space-based technological systems; one such system commonly mentioned is manned space flight exemplified by the Space Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS). From a manned space flight perspective, space weather and space climatology have significant effects on the amount of radiation exposure received by humans in space from the ambient high-energy charged particles present in interplanetary space and trapped in the geomagnetosphere. Whereas the impact of space weather for most technological systems is usually discrete and well correlated in time, the principle impact of space weather and space climatology is to increase the probability of latent cancer formation in thetraveler cohort. In this regard, while space weather may be the dominating factor for a given mission, over the life of a long-term program such as the Space Shuttle or ISS space climatology is the controlling factor of latent cancer risk. Human radiation exposure enhancements associated with space weather disturbances has been a concern among scientist and mission controllers since the inception of manned spaceflight nearly forty years ago. This led NASA to develop, in conjunction with the Environmental Science Services Administration s Space Disturbance Forecast Center and the USAF/AWS, the Solar Particle Alert Network (SPAN)-the foundation of an initial U.S. space weather monitoring and forecasting service. Since Apollo, routine space flight operations have evolved to include the use of space weather and climatology data provided through a world-wide network of operational space weather data services to predict and recommend actions to minimize astronaut radiation exposures. NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) flight controllers use real-time space weather data to detect and assess the impact of solar particle events, outer electron belt enhancements, the formation of pseudo-stable additional trapped radiation belts, and the solar cycle modulation of trapped radiation belts and galactic cosmic rays. Energetic particle data from GOES spacecraft are automatically ingested from NOAA Space Environment Center data servers and used to drive a model for the estimating the exposure to astronauts from solar particle events. While adequate for current manned space flight support, the existing operational space weather support system requires improvements to address the anticipated evolution in both the character of manned missions as well as space flight operations management. Necessary space weather data improvements include: reliably available (near) real-time space weather data on a fixed schedule via redundant access methods that support autonomous data acquisition by computer systems behind enterprise firewalls; and rapid transition of promising research sensors into operational systems.

Golightly, Michael J.↗

Interpretation of cosmic ray composition - The path length distribution

The chemical composition of cosmic ray nuclei, the value of Z varying between 3 and 28, and being between a few hundred MeV/nucleon and a few hundred GeV/nucleon, is compared with a consistent set of propagation calculations. These include the effects of spallation (energy-dependent cross sections are used), escape, ionization loss in the interstellar medium, and deceleration in the solar cavity. The amount of matter traversed by cosmic rays is found to be approximately 7 g/sq cm, independent of energy between 100 MeV/nucleon and 2 GeV/nucleon. Above 2 GeV/nucleon, the escape length varies as the -0.4 + or 0.1 power of the energy. In addition, a procedure has been developed to measure the shape of the cosmic ray path length distribution. Utilizing the ratio of Fe secondaries to Fe in the cosmic rays, presently available data are found to be consistent with an exponential distribution and they eliminate models in which the path length distribution is severely truncated. To tie down the shape of the distribution more precisely, new measurements of the cosmic ray composition, presently becoming available from experiments on the HEAO 3 satellite, will have to be coupled with improved measurements of the energy dependence of partial and total cross sections.

Protheroe, R. J.↗

Energetic ion and cosmic ray characteristics of a magnetic cloud

The large interplanetary shock event of February 11, 1982, has yielded ISEE-3 energetic ion and magnetic field data as well as ground-based neutron-monitor cosmic-ray data. The timing and the onset of the Forbush decrease associated with this shock event coincide with the arrival at the earth of its magnetic cloud component; the duration of the decrease, similarly, corresponds to that of the cloud's passage past the earth. The large scattering mean free path readings suggest that while magnetic cloud ions can easily travel along magnetic field lines, they cannot travel across them, so that they cannot escape the cloud after entering it. Similarly, the cloud field lines prevented cosmic ray entrance, and could have prevented their reaching the earth. The cloud is therefore a major basis for the Forbush decrease.

Sanderson, T. R.↗

The First Fermi-LAT SNR Catalog and Cosmic Ray Implications

While supernova remnants (SNRs) are widely thought to be powerful cosmic-ray accelerators, indirect evidence comes from a small number of well-studied cases. Here we systematically determine the gamma-ray emission detected by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) from all known Galactic SNRs, disentangling them from the sea of cosmic-ray generated photons in the Galactic plane. Using LAT data we have characterized the 1-100 GeV emission in 279 regions containing SNRs, accounting for systematic uncertainties caused by source misattribution and instrumental response. We classified 30 sources as SNRs, using spatial overlap with the radio emission position. For all the remaining regions we evaluated upper limits on SNRs' emission. In the First Fermi-LAT SNR Catalog there is a study of the common characteristics of these SNRs, such as comparisons between GeV, radio and TeV quantities. We show that previously satisfactory models of SNRs' GeV emission no longer adequately describe the data. To address the question of cosmic ray (CR) origins, we also examine the SNRs' maximal CR contribution assuming the GeV emission arises solely from proton interactions. Improved breadth and quality of multiwavelength (MW) data, including distances and local densities, and more, higher resolution gamma-ray data with correspondingly improved Galactic diffuse models will strengthen this constraint.

de Palma, F.↗

The First Fermi-LAT SNR Catalog and Cosmic Ray Implications

While supernova remnants (SNRs) are widely thought to be powerful cosmicray accelerators, indirect evidence comes from a small number of well-studied cases. Here we systematically determine the gamma-ray emission detected by the ermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) from all known Galactic SNRs, disentangling them from the sea of cosmic-ray generated photons in the Galactic plane. Using LAT data we have characterized the 1-100 GeV emission in 279 regions containing SNRs, accounting for systematic uncertainties caused by source misattribution and instrumental response. We classified 30 sources as SNRs, using spatial overlap with the radio emission position. For all the remaining regions we evaluated upper limits on SNRs' emission. In the First Fermi-LAT SNR Catalog there is a study of the common characteristics of these SNRs, such as comparisons between GeV, radio and TeV quantities. We show that previously satisfactory models of SNRs' GeV emission no longer adequately describe the data. To address the question of cosmic ray (CR) origins, we also examine the SNRs' maximal CR contribution assuming the GeV emission arises solely from proton interactions. Improved breadth and quality of multiwavelength (MW) data, including distances and local densities, and more, higher resolution gamma-ray data with correspondingly improved Galactic diffuse models will strengthen this constraint.

de Palma, F.↗

Focusing anisotropy of solar cosmic rays

Analysis of 50-MeV particle data from ICE and 1-GeV data from eight high-latitude neutron monitors of the February 16, 1984 solar cosmic ray event indicates that an exponential with scattering mean free path of greater than 2 AU and with index in the 1.3-1.7 range provides a better description of particle anisotropies than the first-order form, confirming the prediction from cosmic ray transport theories which incorporate the effect of adiabatic focusing into the usual pitch angle scattering formalism. The time profile of the event is largely a reflection of coronal transport processes, with good fits provided by a coronal diffusion coefficient of about 10 to the 18th sq cm/s and with velocity-dependent escape. The simple method of predicting the interplanetary scattering parameters has application where particle injection is nearly continuous, but where previously accelerated particles have filled the heliosphere with a large omnidirectional background.

Bieber, J. W.↗

The multifarious temporal variations of low energy, relativistic cosmic ray electrons

A detailed examination is made of the intensity variations of 3 - 12 MeV interplanetary electrons. The data used are from the cosmic ray experiment flown on the IMP solar minimum through to the onset of the present solar maximum (i.e., from December 1963 through August 1969). A morphology for the intensity changes is tentatively proposed which includes solar flare-associated events, solar co-rotating increases, Forbush decreases, and quiet-time increases, as well as the long term eleven-year variation. It is contended that the electron component observed both during quiescent times and during quiet-time increases are galactic in origin. The quiet-time increases represent a completely new phenomenon that appears to be unique to the low energy electron population. During a quiet-time increase the electron intensity is enhanced by a factor of 3 to 5 over a period of days, and, in general, these periods anti-correlate with low-energy solar particle events. Qualitatively, their amplitude diminishes with increasing solar activity.

Mcdonald, F. B.↗

Variations of three-dimensional anisotropy of cosmic rays during Forbush decreases.

Variations of three-dimensional anisotropy of cosmic rays during Forbush decreases are examined by a spherical harmonic method and by constructing successive isointensity contour maps in the solar ecliptic coordinate system. The east-west and north-south anisotropies are studied statistically and for several individual events; the data are based on cosmic ray records from about 24 stations for the 3-year period from 1966 to 1968. For the individual events, the high anisotropies of about 4% are examined in terms of the convective, diffusive and density gradient components of the differential streaming as well as the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind. In each case, vector gradients are derived that lead to the observed anisotropies, and the magnitude of these gradients is typically 10-20 times that of the quiet time interplanetary gradient.

Yoshida, S.↗

Optimal Estimation Inversion of Ionospheric Electron Density from GNSS-POD Limb Measurements: Part II-Validation and Comparison Using NmF2 and hmF2

A growing number of SmallSat/CubeSat constellations with high-rate (50–100 Hz) global navigation satellite system radio occultations (GNSS-RO) as well as low-rate (1 Hz) precise orbit determination (GNSS-POD) limb-viewing capabilities provide unprecedented spatial and temporal sampling rates for ionospheric studies. In the F-region electron density (N 𝑒 ) retrieval process, instead of the conventional onion-peeling (OP) inversion, an optimal estimation (OE) inversion technique was recently developed using total electron content measurements acquired by GNSS-POD link. The new technique is applied to data acquired from the COSMIC-1, COSMIC-2, and Spire constellations. Although both OE and OP techniques use the Abel weighting function in N 𝑒 inversion, OE significantly differs in its performance, especially in the lower F- and E-regions. In this work, we evaluate and compare newly derived data sets using F2 peak properties with other space-based and ground-based observations. We determine the F2 peak N 𝑒 (NmF2) and its altitude (hmF2), and compare them with the OP-retrieved values. Good agreement is observed between the two techniques for both NmF2 and hmF2. In addition, we also utilize autoscaled F2 peak measurements from a number of worldwide Digisonde stations (∼30). The diurnal sensitivity and latitudinal variability of the F2 peak between the two techniques are carefully studied at these locations. Good agreement is observed between OE-retrieved NmF2 and Digisonde-measured NmF2. However, significant differences appear between OE-retrieved hmF2 and Digisonde-measured hmF2. During the daytime, Digisonde-measured hmF2 remains ∼25–45 km below the OE-retrieved hmF2, especially at mid and high latitudes. We also incorporate F-region N 𝑒 measurements from two incoherent scatter radar observations at high latitudes, located in the North American (Millstone Hill) and European (EISCAT at Tromso) sectors. The radar measurements show good agreement with OE-retrieved values. Although there are several possible sources of error in the ionogram-derived N 𝑒 profiles, our further analysis on F1 and F2 layers indicates that the low Digisonde hmF2 is caused by the autoscaled method, which tends to detect a height systematically below the F2 peak when the F1 layer is present.

GNSS radio occultation↗

The relative abundances of the elements silicon through nickel in the low energy galactic cosmic rays

Measurements of the relative abundances of the elements Si through Ni in galactic cosmic rays in the energy interval 72 to 450 MeV/nucleon are reported based on data collected by a cosmic-ray telescope on the IMP 8 satellite. The measured abundances are compared with propagation calculations using various distributions of path lengths. It is found that the measurements favor an exponential distribution of path lengths truncated at short path lengths. The source abundances of Si, Ca, Fe, and Ni derived by extrapolating the measured abundances back to the source are shown to be comparable to the solar-system abundances. The relevance of the measurements of Sc through Mn to the Mn-54 radioactive decay is examined.

Garcia-Munoz, M.↗

Weighted slit extraction of low-dispersion IUE spectral data

The weighted slit extraction has been chosen by the IUE project as the standard extraction for low-dispersion spectra in the final IUE archives. In order to properly weight the data within the extraction slit and obtain the optimal evaluation of the true spectrum, a noise model is derived for IUE data. The exclusion of cosmic rays is demonstrated and the improvement in signal-to-noise ratio is quantified for spectra taken with a wide range of flux level. Problematic spectra, such as trailed spectra, multiple spectra, discontinuous spectra, and emission-line spectra, are extracted to demonstrate the robust nature of the method. Comparisons are made between the standard IUE Standard Image Processing System (IUESIPS) extraction, nonstandard narrow slit extraction, trailed IUESIPS extraction, and weighted extraction for these data. Other weighted slit extractions are briefly discussed. The advantages of the weighted slit extraction are: (1) the extraction improves the signal-to-noise ratio of the spectrum while conserving total flux; (2) most of the cosmic rays are automatically removed; (3) the output includes an error estimate for each point in the flux spectrum; and (4) the algorithm can be run in a batch mode that requires no special input parameters.

Kinney, A. L.↗

A Cerenkov-Range analysis of the isotopic composition of cosmic rays with Z from 6 to 26

High-altitude balloon data on the isotopic composition of heavy cosmic rays are reported. The experiment used a Cerenkov detector, arrays of scintillators, and a digitized wire spark chamber. Peaks assigned to the mono-isotopic elements F and Na indicate that an absolute mass scale can be derived from the data. Even-Z elements in the Z range from 12 through 16 are represented mainly by alpha-particle nuclei. Neutron-rich components dominate in the case of neon present. Mass histograms are plotted for C, O, N, Ne, Mg, and Fe.

Fisher, A. J.↗

Galactic gamma rays: Models involving variable cosmic-ray density

Mathematical models were developed to determine variable cosmic ray flux around the galactic plane. Data indicate point sources, molecular hydrogen concentration, increased cosmic ray density toward the galactic center, and neutral pion production combine to cause radiation density variables in the galactic plane.

Strong, A. W.↗

Propagation of cosmic-ray nuclei in a diffusing galaxy with convective halo and thin matter disk

A diffusion model for cosmic-ray propagation in the galaxy that includes the effects of convection in the halo is presented. Calculations are made for 13 primary and secondary nuclei with rigidities between 1 and 1000 GV using interaction loss rates, secondary production rates, and radioactive decay on the basis of recent new cross-section measurements. It is found that, in order to fit the rather weak radial dependence of cosmic-ray protons derived from gamma-ray data, the radial profile of the cosmic-ray sources must also have a weak radial dependence. It is suggested that convection perpendicular to the disk of the Milky Way Galaxy may not be important even at rigidities less than a few GV. The obtained limits on halo thicknesses are consistent with what can be determined for the distribution of cosmic-ray electrons in the halo based on the distribution of radio synchrotron emission in this and other galaxies.

Webber, W. R.↗

GCR and SPE Radiation Effects in Materials

This Year 3 project provides risk reduction data to assess galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and solar particle event (SPE) space radiation damage in materials used in manned low-earth orbit, lunar, interplanetary, and Martian surface missions. Long duration (up to 50 years) space radiation damage is being quantified for materials used in inflatable structures (1st priority), and space suit and habitable composite materials (2nd priority). The data collected has relevance for nonmetallic materials (polymers and composites) used in NASA missions where long duration reliability is needed in continuous or intermittent space radiation fluxes.

Waller, Jess↗

Optical photometry with the Kuiper Airborne Observatory

The properties of optical photometric data obtainable with the 0.9-meter telescope of the Kuiper Airborne Observatory are described. The major differences between airborne and ground-based data are the absence of scintillation and the increased cosmic-ray background in the airborne data and the large size and vibration of the airborne images. The underlying cause of the large airborne images in not known although refraction in the turbulent boundary layer of the aircraft is suspected to be the major factor.

Dunham, E. W.↗

Primordial comet mantle - Irradiation production of a stable, organic crust

The thickness and survivability of a cosmic ray-generated primordial comet refractory mantle, or 'crust', are presently predicted by laboratory data and corrected estimates of cosmic ray dose to be capable of surviving a new comet's entry into the inner solar system over numerous revolutions. It is suggested that, since this mantle may be as much as several meters deep, the probe apparatus of the projected CRAF and Rosetta spacecraft will have to be extended in order to reach the desired, unprocessed cometary material. As things stand, there is a high probability that these missions will sample cometary matter than has been heavily irradiated and reprocessed in the Oort cloud.

Strazzulla, G.↗