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DOE OSTI2022

A Dynamic Risk Framework for the Physical Security of Nuclear Power Plants

This paper describes ongoing work within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability pathway at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to optimize the security and cost of nuclear power plants. It introduces the dynamic risk assessment tool developed at INL, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). EMRALD is leveraged to optimize the security posture of a nuclear power plant by integrating force-on-force (FOF) simulations and operator mitigation actions, including dynamic and flexible coping strategies (FLEX). To illustrate the methodology, four attack scenarios are modeled in a commercially available FOF simulation tool using a hypothetical nuclear power plant facility. The simulation results provide valuable insights into possible attack outcomes, as well as the probabilistic risk of a core damage event given these outcomes. Safety mitigation procedures are modeled in EMRALD dependent on the attack outcomes by considering human operator uncertainties. The results demonstrate that the number of armed responders can be optimized, while still maintaining the same protection level as the initial security posture. The proposed modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the nuclear power plants to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas

Russia's invasion of Ukraine fuelled an energy crisis, which considerably impacted Europe given its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas imports. This study uses an ensemble of four global integrated assessment models, which are further soft-linked to two sectoral models, and explores the synergies and trade-offs among three approaches to living without Russian gas in Europe: (a) replacing with other gas imports, (b) boosting domestic energy production, and (c) reducing demand and accelerating energy efficiency. We find that substituting Russian gas from other trade partners would miss an opportunity to accelerate decarbonisation in end-use sectors while risking further fossil-fuel lock-ins, despite featuring the lowest gas price spikes and potentially reducing heating costs for end-users in the near term. Boosting domestic, primarily renewable, energy production on the other hand would instead require considerable investments, potentially burdening consumers. Energy demand reductions, however, could offer considerable space for further emissions cuts at the lowest power-sector investment costs; nonetheless, an energy efficiency-driven strategy would also risk relocation of energy-intensive industries, an aspect of increasing relevance to EU policymakers.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Dynamic Risk Framework for the Optimization of Physical Security Posture of Nuclear Power Plants

This paper describes an ongoing work within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability pathway at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to optimize security and cost of nuclear power plants. It introduces the dynamic risk assessment tool developed at INL, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). EMRALD was leveraged to optimize the security posture of a nuclear power plant by integrating force-on-force (FOF) simulations and operator mitigation actions including the dynamic and flexible coping strategies (FLEX). To illustrate the methodology, four attack scenarios were modeled in a commercially available FOF simulation tool using a hypothetical nuclear power plant facility. The simulation results provide valuable insights into possible attack outcomes, as well as the probabilistic risk of core damage event given these outcomes. Safety mitigation procedures were modeled in EMRALD dependent on the attack outcomes by considering human operator uncertainties. The results demonstrate that the number of armed responders can be optimized, while still maintaining the same protection level as the initial security posture. The proposed modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the nuclear power plants to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Environmental Permitting and Compliance Cost Reduction Strategies for the MHK Industry: Lessons Learned from Other Industries

The marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) industry plays a vital role in the U.S. clean energy strategy by providing a renewable, domestic energy source that may offset the need for traditional energy sources. The first MHK deployments in the U.S. have incurred very high permitting costs and long timelines for deploying projects, which increases project risk and discourages investment. A key challenge to advancing an economically competitive U.S. MHK industry is reducing the time and cost required for environmental permitting and compliance with government regulations. Other industries such as offshore oil and gas, offshore wind energy, subsea power and data cables, onshore wind energy, and solar energy facilities have all developed more robust permitting and compliance pathways that provide lessons for the MHK industry in the U.S. and may help inform the global consenting process. Based on in-depth review and research into each of the other industries, we describe the environmental permitting pathways, the main environmental concerns and types of monitoring typically associated with them, and factors that appear to have eased environmental permitting and compliance issues.

other industries↗

DOE OSTI2020

Smart Planning Support for Nuclear Power Plant Work Planners

Operation and Maintenance costs of a nuclear power plant account for 60% of overall plant costs due to the nuclear industry?s risk-adverse culture (World Nuclear Association, 2020). The industry relies on highly conservative estimates to avoid risk and brute force reactions to manage the unexpected and keep a plant running safely. This approach has kept plants operating safer than any other power source available over the last six decades (Ritchie, 2020). However, these conservative methods have cost the nuclear industry in market competitiveness. The solution? Transform the conservative approaches to accurate, efficient, and still safe data-driven approaches that leverage advanced technologies available in the digital age of operation. This project endeavored to identify two key aspects to successfully incorporate historical work execution data. First, where in the work management process is that information most pertinent? Next, what variables are key to informing the best strategy for organizing the upcoming work? The Smart Planner uses data collected by dynamic work instructions to provide a basis for suggesting requirements of similar, upcoming work packages. Further, it curbs inefficiencies of the work management process by analyzing the likelihood of discovery work, offering suggestions to build a contingency package. All this taking place as the work planner builds work packages that meet the predetermined scope of work to be performed.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Exploring the fusion power plant design space: comparative analysis of positive and negative triangularity tokamaks through optimization

The optimal configuration choice between positive triangularity (PT) and negative triangularity (NT) tokamaks for fusion power plants hinges on navigating different operational constraints rather than achieving specific plasma performance metrics. This study presents a systematic comparison using constrained multi-objective optimization with the integrated FUsion Synthesis Engine (FUSE) framework. Over 200 000 integrated design evaluations were performed exploring the trade-offs between capital cost minimization and operational reliability (maximizing q 95 ) while satisfying engineering constraints including 250 ± 50 MW net electric power, tritium breeding ratio > 1.1, power exhaust limits and an hour flattop time. Both configurations achieve similar cost-performance Pareto fronts through contrasting design philosophies. PT, while demonstrating resilience to pedestal degradation (compensating for up to 40% reduction), are constrained to larger machines (R 0 > 6.5 m) by the narrow operational window between L–H threshold requirements and the research-established power exhaust limit (P sol /R < 15 MW m –1 ). This forces optimization through comparatively reduced magnetic field (∼8 T). NT configurations exploit their freedom from these constraints to access compact, high-field designs (R 0 ~ 5.5 m, B 0 >12 T), creating natural synergy with advancing HTS technology. Sensitivity analyses reveal that PT’s economic viability depends critically on uncertainties in L–H threshold scaling and power handling limits. Notably, a 50% variation in either could eliminate viable designs or enable access to the compact design space. These results suggest configuration selection should be risk-informed: PT offers the lowest-cost path when operational constraints can be confidently predicted, while NT is robust to large variations in constraints and physics uncertainties.

FUSE framework↗

DOE OSTI2022

Managing weather- and market price-related financial risks in algal biofuel production

Large-scale algae production has garnered interest due to its potential as a biofuel feedstock. Previous research assessing the profitability of algae products has been mostly based on values averaged over time, but algae production and resulting financial returns exhibit significant variability due to weather and fluctuations in selling prices for algae-based products. In other sectors, producers often reduce weather- and market price-related financial risk with financial instruments such as insurance, but little research has been performed on the design of insurance products to protect algae producers. Furthermore, this study develops a novel index-based insurance instrument that pays-out during unfavorable weather and market conditions, then explores the instrument's effectiveness, combined with a cash reserve, in reducing revenue stream variability for an algae producer. Results indicate that a biophysically based index-insurance product tailored to the specific financial risks in algae production can reduce variability in net revenues and can do so at a lower cost than relying solely on cash reserves, the most common financial risk management tool. Assessing the performance of index-insurance in algae production is particularly timely given the passage of the 2018 Farm Bill, which newly opens opportunities for the USDA to provide crop insurance to algae producers.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The xylem of anisohydric Quercus alba L. is more vulnerable to embolism than isohydric codominants

Abstract The coordination of plant leaf water potential (Ψ L ) regulation and xylem vulnerability to embolism is fundamental for understanding the tradeoffs between carbon uptake and risk of hydraulic damage. There is a general consensus that trees with vulnerable xylem more conservatively regulate Ψ L than plants with resistant xylem. We evaluated if this paradigm applied to three important eastern US temperate tree species, Quercus alba L., Acer saccharum Marsh. and Liriodendron tulipifera L., by synthesizing 1600 Ψ L observations, 122 xylem embolism curves and xylem anatomical measurements across 10 forests spanning pronounced hydroclimatological gradients and ages. We found that, unexpectedly, the species with the most vulnerable xylem ( Q. alba ) regulated Ψ L less strictly than the other species. This relationship was found across all sites, such that coordination among traits was largely unaffected by climate and stand age. Quercus species are perceived to be among the most drought tolerant temperate US forest species; however, our results suggest their relatively loose Ψ L regulation in response to hydrologic stress occurs with a substantial hydraulic cost that may expose them to novel risks in a more drought‐prone future.

Benson, Michael C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Animal movement estimation and network-based epidemic modeling: Illustration for the swine industry in Iowa (US)

Animal movement plays a critical role in disease transmission between farms. However, in the United States, the lack of available animal shipment data, sometimes coupled with a lack of detailed information about farm demographics and characteristics, presents great challenges for epidemic modeling and prediction. In this study, we proposed a new method based on the maximum entropy to generate “synthetic” animal movement networks, considering available statistics about the premises operation type, operation size, and the distance between premises. We illustrated our method for the swine movement networks in Iowa and performed network analyses to gain insights into the swine industry. We then applied the generated networks to a network-based epidemic model to identify potential system vulnerabilities in terms of disease transmission. The model was parameterized for African Swine Fever (ASF) as the US swine industry is quite concerned about this disease. Results show that premises with a central role in the network are more vulnerable to disease outbreaks and play an important role in disease spread. Simulations with outbreaks starting from random farms reveal no significant large outbreaks, indicating the system’s relative robustness against arbitrary disease introductions. However, outbreaks originating from high out-degree farms can lead to large epidemic sizes. This underscores the importance for stakeholders and policymakers to continue improving animal movement records and traceability programs in the US and the value of making that data available to epidemiologists and modelers to better understand risk and inform strategies aimed to cost-effectively prevent and control disease transmission. Our approach could be easily adapted to estimate movement networks in other animal production systems and to inform disease spread models for various infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deep Lynx: Digital Engineering Integration Hub

The construction of megaprojects has consistently demonstrated challenges for project managers in regard to meeting cost, schedule, and performance requirements. Megaproject construction challenges are common place within megaprojects with many active projects in the United States failing to meet cost and schedule efforts by significant margins. Currently, engineering teams operate in siloed tools and disparate teams where connections across design, procurement, and construction systems are translated manually or over brittle point-to-point integrations. The manual nature of data exchange increases the risk of silent errors in the reactor design, with each silent error cascading across the design. These cascading errors lead to uncontrollable risk during construction, resulting in significant delays and cost overruns. Deep Lynx allows for an integrated platform during design and operations of mega projects.

Darrington, JohnW↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning and Economic Models to Enable Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance of a Nuclear Plant Asset

The primary objective of this research is to address challenges in the implementation of risk-informed, condition-based predictive maintenance (PdM), which reduces operating costs while still maintaining the safety and reliability of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To achieve the objective, risk models are being developed by taking advantage of advancements in data analytics, deep learning, machine learning (ML), and artificial intelligence (AI). The notable outcomes presented in the report include ? Development of a ML models using heterogeneous plant process and vibration data collected at different spatial and temporal resolutions from the Salem?s CWS to diagnose a circulating water pump (CWP) failure based on salient fault signatures. The developed diagnostic models are extendable to other faults associated with CWPs and CWP motors given associated fault signatures. ? Development of a natural language processing (NLP) technique to automatically classify the WO data into different categories. The developed NLP technique was validated on independent WO data. This automates the tedious and time-consuming activity of mining and classifying WOs by subject matter experts. ? Estimation of mean time between downtime (i.e., time duration between time instances when 1 or more CWPs are not available) and developed an approach to establish reliability of CWS components using unstructured WO data along with CWS plant process data. ? Formulation of economic model based on Markov chain models. The parameters of associated with the transition rate between different states of Markov chain models were estimated using WO data. The economic model formulation and discussion captures both time-independent and time-dependent parameter variation, leading to risk-informed decision-making.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Risk Model for EM Decision Support Toolsets

The Government Office of Accountability (GAO) has published several reports identifying the need for the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) to address mounting costs for DoE's cleanup program. DOEEM could greatly benefit from independent decision tool-sets/models that would allow them to evaluate options and inform business decision at the enterprise level considering site-specific life cycle costs and system plans. Program goals: Develop a tool-set that enables EM to independently evaluate alternatives, assess outcomes from different contracting strategies, and inform critical decisions for the enterprise. Project goals: Adaption of a Risk Model for integration with complimentary tool-sets for project level decision making. Operational Events: Discrete event model that evaluates operational variables (e.g. capacity, throughput, maintenance constraints) and identify bottlenecks. Identifying and Bounding Project Risk: Identify risks that impact confidence in meeting goals (e.g. production). Life cycle Cost: Evaluate impacts of staffing levels, inventory, and capital investments on life cycle costs. Methods and approach: Monte Carlo Analysis is being executed to generate results: Input derives from Risk Register Data; Tied to Projected and Target Schedules; Incorporates float duration within the model. Assumes associated risk mitigation actions being completed within a timeline of five fiscal years. Metrics include: Confidence in Meeting Production Goal; Confidence in Safety Standards; Confidence in Continuous Operation; Other Metrics can be added as appropriate regarding specific site needs. The adapted risk model can be used as a stand alone decision tool or can be integrated complementary tool-sets (i.e. process and cost models) for project-specific decisions. These support tool-sets can then be integrated with others for site- and complex- level evaluations. Future work includes designing an adaptable and modular framework that would allow integration of multiple tool-sets for holistic and/or targeted evaluation of alternative strategies for decision making that could lead to risk and cost reduction across the enterprise.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of Manufacturing Quality Management Principles to PV System Installations

To help SETO/DOE achieve its goals, the IBTS team proposed a project addressing system reliability by improving installation standards and quality management. The proposed approach was designed to help achieve measurable reductions in installation defect density and improvements in the performance of PV systems by optimizing design and installation of residential and commercial PV systems. This approach addressed the soft costs associated with installations and quality management. The project demonstrated improved system reliability and reduced PV system installation costs. The software developed improved operations, decreased risk, and increased the overall value of PV systems across their lifecycle. The project used several data collection methods, including extensive industry surveys, face-to-face high-level interviews at industry conferences, stakeholder teleconferences, and in-depth interviews conducted by IBTS staff. Results from the research found the industry needs a uniform assessment method for national providers to be more efficient; the software should support both code officials and installers; most industry stakeholders would find value in a centralized software system that allows them to collect, report, and review information on in-process and completed solar installations; and mobile solutions that bridge existing knowledge gaps with inspectors and integrate with existing methodologies (such as permitting software) are of great value. The software solution developed is web-based, allowing for national access, and is built on a Google Firebase platform that can handle significant users and data. It can be used onsite or remotely, allowing for code compliance to continue despite ongoing pandemic related delays or shutdowns for local economies. The information provided by the software tool allows users to uniformly assess a system for compliance and use that aggregated data to identify training topics or create internal process designed to improving issues and reducing occurrence. This solution has multiple benefits in managing quality at time of use and promoting an increase in future safety and quality through education. Perhaps most importantly, this software increases public safety by ensuring compliance of installed systems and allows for local AHJs to remotely engage specialized and qualified solar specific expertise for oversite of the installation in their jurisdictions. Data analysis provides the quality feedback loop identifying the root cause of failure and drives installation practices to improve through training and education, resulting in systems with higher performance, greater reliability, and reduced operations and maintenance costs. With the successful completion of this project, the industry can expect reduced soft costs and increased performance and safety and will ultimately benefit from longer performing systems that cost less to operate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physics-informed machine learning for fault-leakage reduced-order modeling

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a promising technology for mitigating CO 2 emissions. The overall success of GCS depends on safe operations that are informed by risk assessment and have proper mitigation plans in place. Performing quantitative probabilistic risk assessment for a GCS site using traditional reservoir simulators can be challenging due to the high computational costs. To overcome this challenge, the US Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) project has developed an integrated assessment modeling approach that utilizes computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROM) for simulating various parts of a GCS storage site to quantify uncertainty. Here, in this study, we develop a reduced-order model for fault leakage risk assessment. We use a deep learning approach to build the reduced-order model. We perform a sensitivity analysis and find that the deep learning model yields high accuracy with a much smaller computational cost than full-physics simulation. We also evaluate the performance of the model in scenarios where simulations are not possible to run, providing analysis not previously performed in fault-leakage ROM analyses. Based on a sensitivity analysis of the model, we suggest a simplified conceptual model for fault leakage and site monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Research and Development on Advanced Electrochemical Energy Storage Devices Enabling a Spectrum of Electrified Vehicles

The USABC Advanced Battery development plan had the following three focus areas: 1. Existing technology validation, implementation, and cost reduction 2. Identification of the next viable technology with emphasis on the potential to meet USABC cost and energy density goals. 3. Support high-risk, high-reward battery technology R&D The primary aim of this project was focused on the barriers that most impede wider public adoption of electrification in vehicles-cost, energy density, low-temp performance, calendar life, and improvements in abuse tolerance. The specific objectives are as follows: Cost Reduction: drive to significantly reduce battery cost to be in-line with the $\$$100/kWh or less (by the end of calendar year 2020) DOE cost goals. Additionally, goals of $\$$75/KWh were set for 2023 aligned with fast charge and some offset of energy density. Energy Density Increase: focus on improving the cell-level specific energy and energy densities to >350 watt hours per kilogram (Wh/kg) and >750Wh/L. Low Temperature Performance Increase: strive toward developments that improve the discharge power and eliminate or dramatically reduce the life limiting lithium plating associated with regenerative braking at low temperatures, during the program. Calendar Life Increase: drive to achieve a 15-year calendar life. Abuse Tolerance Improvement: strive to develop improvements in Li-ion abuse tolerance and/or development of electrochemical energy storage technologies with inherently better response to abuse circumstances. Emerging Areas: initiate new programs that address emerging technologies that arise during the contract period.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

CO 2 supplementation eliminates sugar-rich media requirement for plant propagation using a simple inexpensive temporary immersion photobioreactor

In vitro plant propagation systems such as temporary immersion bioreactors (TIBs) are valuable tools that enable production of disease-free plants with improved traits. However, TIB systems can be expensive, difficult to implement, and prone to contamination due to sugar rich propagation media. Using rapidly growing chicory root cultures to expedite design-build-test cycles, we report here an improved, low-cost version of a previously reported Hydrostatically-driven TIB (Hy-TIB) that facilitates economical use of gas mixtures. Bioreactor improvements include decreased material costs, expanded modes of operation, and a horizontal orientation of a plastic film plant growth chambers that increase propagule light exposure. To take advantage of these improvements, we describe here experiments that evaluate the impacts of elevated CO 2 on propagation of cacao (Theobroma cacao) secondary embryos and nodal cultures of yam (Dioscorea spp.) during both phototrophic and photomixotrophic growth. Our experiments show that elevated CO 2 during plant propagation significantly improved both cacao and yam propagule development and eliminated the need for supplemental sugars in tissue culture growth media. Thus, our improved Hy-TIB shows potential as a simple, low-cost, and scalable propagation platform with cost-effective gas composition control and reduced risk of contamination overgrowth. We provide detailed instructions for assembly of this Hy-TIB design and discuss the implications of its adoption in food-insecure regions of the world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A new ductile, tougher resin for impregnation of superconducting magnets

A major remaining challenge for Nb 3 Sn high field magnets is their training due to random temperature variations in the coils. The main objective of our research is to reduce or eliminate it by finding novel impregnation materials in replacement of the epoxies currently used. An organic olefin-based thermosetting dicyclopentadiene resin, C 10 H 12 , commercially available in Japan as TELENE® by RIMTEC, was used to impregnate a short Nb 3 Sn undulator coil developed by ANL and FNAL. This magnet reached short sample limit after only two quenches, compared with ∼100 when CTD-101K® was used. Ductility, i.e. the ability to accept large strains, and toughness were identified as key properties to achieve these results. In addition, we have been investigating whether mixing TELENE with high heat capacity ceramic powders such as Gd 2 O 3 , Gd 2 O 2 S, and HoCu 2 , increases the specific heat (C p ) of impregnated Nb3Sn superconducting magnets. The viscosity, heat capacity, thermal conductivity, and other physical properties of TELENE with high-C p powder fillers were measured in this study as a function of temperature and magnetic field. The TELENE-87 wt%Gd 2 O 2 S had a peak in C p between 4.3 K and 5.3 K at fields between 0 and 8 T. We have also investigated the effect on the mechanical properties of pure and mixed TELENE under 10 MGy of gamma ray irradiation at the Takasaki Advanced Radiation Research Institute in Takasaki, Japan. TELENE-87 wt%Gd 2 O 2 S exhibited exceptional radiation resistance. Impregnating an undulator coil with TELENE mixed with Gd 2 O 2 S powder will verify whether the coils' thermal stability further improves, or whether its low diffusivity will require engineering the material with high-thermal conductivity components. Short magnet training will lead to better magnet reliability, lower magnet margins, lower risk and substantial saving in accelerators' commissioning costs. Part of this study is supported by the U.S.-Japan Science and Technology Cooperation Program in high energy physics operated by MEXT in Japan and DOE in the U.S.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

HPC for the EEC: Industrial Trade Tools for the Aging Energy Infrastructure

The petrochemical and refining sectors are challenged with reliably delivering safer and cleaner energy to US consumers, while meeting an ever-growing global demand. The petrochemical and refining infrastructure in the USA is aging, and corrosion and damage mechanisms are constant threats to mechanical integrity, safety, and profitability. However, governments and industry stakeholders are reluctant to replace or upgrade the existing infrastructure due to the immense cost. To better understand and mitigate the risks of aging energy infrastructure, strong technical analysis capabilities, combined with optimized monitoring and decision making, is critical. Today, this is accomplished via complex simulations and data analysis. To this end, advanced High-Performance-Computing (HPC) software will be leveraged and integrated in easy-to-use industrial trade tools, to lower the barrier for new users, increase the ease of access for experienced users, and allow for smarter decisions to be made in the midstream and downstream energy sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗