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At least 289 records · Page 16

Analyzing the Relationship between Tracking and Covariance for Satellite Collision Avoidance

This presentation will display statistical analysis performed with over 150,000 Conjunction Data Messages (CDMs) received for the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua, Aura and Terra satellites within the three year period of March 2015 through February 2018. The analysis performed demonstrates the relationship between the covariance of a secondary object and the amount of tracks it receives, as a function of Time to Closest Approach (TCA). The examination indicates that higher tracking frequencies result in lower uncertainties inclusively from the time the data is screened up until TCA. Further investigation displays the impacts of how additional observations of secondary objects lower their position uncertainties and what period of time prior to TCA convergence of the covariance can be expected depending on how well the objects are tracked. Data points from several recent EOS High Interest Events (HIEs) are used to exemplify this analysis.

Collision Avoidance↗

Covariance of greenness and terrain variables over the Konza Prairie

An analysis is made of time-dependent covariance of the greenness vegetation index with mapped terrain variables over the Konza Prarie (Kansas) during the 1987 growing season. The analysis was part of an ongoing project to establish appopriate ground-sampling and data-integration strategies for satellite-based monitoring of land surface climate conditions. Greenness images for six dates between May and October were derived from atmospherically corrected thematic mapper (TM) data and coregistered with maps of woody vegetation, fire, and soils. Local variance in greenness peaked in mid-June, falling rapidly until mid-August, and declining gradually thereafter. Greenness images exhibited positive autocorrelation up to distances of 180-210 m, but the dominant scale of pattern occurred at a block size of 60 m by 60 m throughout the growing season. 40-44 percent of total scene variance in July and August was accounted for by the effects of woody vegetation (8.9 percent of the area), prairie burning, and soil type. The effect of these terrain variables was fairly consistent between June and late August and was manifested as additional high-frequency spatial variation in imagery from that period.

Davis, Frank W.↗

Navigation analysis for Viking 1979, option B

A parametric study performed for 48 trans-Mars reference missions in support of the Viking program is reported. The launch dates cover several months in the year 1979, and each launch date has multiple arrival dates in 1980. A plot of launch versus arrival dates with case numbers designated for reference purposes is included. The analysis consists of the computation of statistical covariance matrices based on certain assumptions about the ground-based tracking systems. The error model statistics are listed in tables. Tracking systems were assumed at three sites: Goldstone, California; Canberra, Australia; and Madrid, Spain. The tracking data consisted of range and Doppler measurements taken during the tracking intervals starting at E-30(d) and ending at E-10(d) for the control data and ending at E-18(h) for the knowledge data. The control and knowledge covariance matrices were delivered to the Planetary Mission Analysis Branch for inputs into a delta V dispersion analysis.

Mitchell, P. H.↗

Navigation Strategies for Primitive Solar System Body Rendezvous and Proximity Operations

A wealth of scientific knowledge regarding the composition and evolution of the solar system can be gained through reconnaissance missions to primitive solar system bodies. This paper presents analysis of a baseline navigation strategy designed to address the unique challenges of primitive body navigation. Linear covariance and Monte Carlo error analysis was performed on a baseline navigation strategy using simulated data from a· design reference mission (DRM). The objective of the DRM is to approach, rendezvous, and maintain a stable orbit about the near-Earth asteroid 4660 Nereus. The outlined navigation strategy and resulting analyses, however, are not necessarily limited to this specific target asteroid as they may he applicable to a diverse range of mission scenarios. The baseline navigation strategy included simulated data from Deep Space Network (DSN) radiometric tracking and optical image processing (OpNav). Results from the linear covariance and Monte Carlo analyses suggest the DRM navigation strategy is sufficient to approach and perform proximity operations in the vicinity of the target asteroid with meter-level accuracy.

Getzandanner, Kenneth M.↗

Effects of Correlated Errors on the Analysis of Space Geodetic Data

As thermal errors are reduced instrumental and troposphere correlated errors will increasingly become more important. Work in progress shows that troposphere covariance error models improve data analysis results. We expect to see stronger effects with higher data rates. Temperature modeling of delay errors may further reduce temporal correlations in the data.

thermal errors↗

Observability studies of inertial navigation systems

The present work deals with an undamped three-channel inertial-navigation-system error model. It is shown that it is possible to fully observe, and thus estimate, all the states of the system. This is in contrast to a previous two-channel system, in which it was impossible to fully observe and estimate all the states of the system. The conclusions of the analysis are verified through covariance simulation, which yields identical results.

Bar-Itzhack, I. Y.↗

Analysis of the lettuce data from the variable pressure growth chamber at NASA Johnson Space Center: A three-stage nested design model

A model of three-stage nested experimental design was applied to analyze the lettuce data obtained from the variable pressure growth chamber test bed at NASA-Johnson Space Center. From the results of an application of the analysis of variance and covariance on the data set, it was noted that all of the (uncontrollable) factors, Side, Zone, Height and (controllable) PAR (photosynthetically active radiation), had nonhomogeneous effects on the dry weight of the edible biomass of lettuce per pot. Incidentally, the variations accountable to the (uncontrollable) factorial heterogeneities are merely 9 percent and 17 percent of the total variation for both the first and second crop test, respectively. After adjusting for the PAR as a covariate in the no-intercept model, the accountable variations to all the four factors are 94 percent and 92 percent for the first and the second crop test, respectively. With the use of a no-intercept simple linear regression model, the accountable variations to the factor PAR are 92 percent and 90 percent for the first and the second crop test, respectively. Evidently, the (controllable) factor PAR is the dominating one.

Lee, Tze-San↗

On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation

A simple scheme is presented for on-line estimation of covariance parameters in statistical data assimilation systems. The scheme is based on a maximum-likelihood approach in which estimates are produced on the basis of a single batch of simultaneous observations. Simple-sample covariance estimation is reasonable as long as the number of available observations exceeds the number of tunable parameters by two or three orders of magnitude. Not much is known at present about model error associated with actual forecast systems. Our scheme can be used to estimate some important statistical model error parameters such as regionally averaged variances or characteristic correlation length scales. The advantage of the single-sample approach is that it does not rely on any assumptions about the temporal behavior of the covariance parameters: time-dependent parameter estimates can be continuously adjusted on the basis of current observations. This is of practical importance since it is likely to be the case that both model error and observation error strongly depend on the actual state of the atmosphere. The single-sample estimation scheme can be incorporated into any four-dimensional statistical data assimilation system that involves explicit calculation of forecast error covariances, including optimal interpolation (OI) and the simplified Kalman filter (SKF). The computational cost of the scheme is high but not prohibitive; on-line estimation of one or two covariance parameters in each analysis box of an operational bozed-OI system is currently feasible. A number of numerical experiments performed with an adaptive SKF and an adaptive version of OI, using a linear two-dimensional shallow-water model and artificially generated model error are described. The performance of the nonadaptive versions of these methods turns out to depend rather strongly on correct specification of model error parameters. These parameters are estimated under a variety of conditions, including uniformly distributed model error and time-dependent model error statistics.

Dee, Dick P.↗

The Gravity Field, Orientation, and Ephemeris of Mercury from MESSENGER Observations After Three Years in Orbit

We have analyzed three years of radio tracking data from the MESSENGER spacecraft in orbit around Mercury and determined the gravity field, planetary orientation, and ephemeris of the innermost planet. With improvements in spatial coverage, force modeling, and data weighting, we refined an earlier global gravity field both in quality and resolution, and we present here a spherical harmonic solution to degree and order 50. In this field, termed HgM005, uncertainties in low-degree coefficients are reduced by an order of magnitude relative to the earlier global field, and we obtained a preliminary value of the tidal Love number k(sub 2) of 0.451+/-0.014. We also estimated Mercury's pole position, and we obtained an obliquity value of 2.06 +/- 0.16 arcmin, in good agreement with analysis of Earth-based radar observations. From our updated rotation period (58.646146 +/- 0.000011 days) and Mercury ephemeris, we verified experimentally the planet's 3: 2 spin-orbit resonance to greater accuracy than previously possible. We present a detailed analysis of the HgM005 covariance matrix, and we describe some near-circular frozen orbits around Mercury that could be advantageous for future exploration.

MESSENGER↗

Insight and Evidence Motivating the Simplification of Dual-Analysis Hybrid Systems into Single-Analysis Hybrid Systems

Many hybrid data assimilation systems currently used for NWP employ some form of dual-analysis system approach. Typically a hybrid variational analysis is responsible for creating initial conditions for high-resolution forecasts, and an ensemble analysis system is responsible for creating sample perturbations used to form the flow-dependent part of the background error covariance required in the hybrid analysis component. In many of these, the two analysis components employ different methodologies, e.g., variational and ensemble Kalman filter. In such cases, it is not uncommon to have observations treated rather differently between the two analyses components; recentering of the ensemble analysis around the hybrid analysis is used to compensated for such differences. Furthermore, in many cases, the hybrid variational high-resolution system implements some type of four-dimensional approach, whereas the underlying ensemble system relies on a three-dimensional approach, which again introduces discrepancies in the overall system. Connected to these is the expectation that one can reliably estimate observation impact on forecasts issued from hybrid analyses by using an ensemble approach based on the underlying ensemble strategy of dual-analysis systems. Just the realization that the ensemble analysis makes substantially different use of observations as compared to their hybrid counterpart should serve as enough evidence of the implausibility of such expectation. This presentation assembles numerous anecdotal evidence to illustrate the fact that hybrid dual-analysis systems must, at the very minimum, strive for consistent use of the observations in both analysis sub-components. Simpler than that, this work suggests that hybrid systems can reliably be constructed without the need to employ a dual-analysis approach. In practice, the idea of relying on a single analysis system is appealing from a cost-maintenance perspective. More generally, single-analysis systems avoid contradictions such as having to choose one sub-component to generate performance diagnostics to another, possibly not fully consistent, component.

Todling, Ricardo↗

The Stochastic X-ray Variability of the Accreting Millisecond Pulsar IGR J17062-6143

This work presents an investigation of the stochastic X-ray variability from the 164 Hz accreting millisecond pulsar IGR J17062–6143, based on regular observations collected with the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer between 2017 July and 2020 August. Over this period, the power density spectrum showed a stable morphology, with broad ∼ 25% rms band-limited noise below 16 Hz. Quasiperiodic oscillations (QPOs) were occasionally observed, with the most notably detections including a low-frequency QPO centered at 2.7 Hz and a sharp QPO centered at 115 Hz that may be a 2:3 resonance with the spin frequency. Further, the energy dependence of the band-limited noise is studied through a spectroscopic analysis of the complex covariance in two frequency intervals. It is found that the power law continuum is the primary driver for the observed variability, although the thermal (blackbody) emission also appears to be intrinsically variable in area (5% rms) and temperature (1% rms). Notably, the 1 keV emission feature seen in all X-ray spectra of IGR J17062–6143 varies with the same amplitude as the power law, but systematically lags behind that continuum emission. These results appear consistent with a scenario in which a time variable Compton-scattering corona is the primary source for the observed stochastic variability, with the variability observed in the emission feature and at the lowest photon energies being due to the disk reflection of the power law continuum.

Petrus Bult↗

Compact Midwave Imaging System: Results from an Airborne Demonstration

The Compact Midwave Imaging System (CMIS) is a wide field of view, multi-angle, multi-spectral push frame imager that relies on the forward motion of the satellite to create a two-dimensional (2D) image swath. An airborne demonstration of CMIS was successfully completed in January-February 2021 on the NASA Langley Research Center Gulfstream III. The primary objective of the four-flight campaign was to demonstrate the capability of this unique instrument to perform stereo observations of clouds and other particulates (e.g. smoke) in the atmosphere. It is shown that the midwave infrared (MWIR) spectral bands of CMIS provide a unique 24/7 capability with high resolution for accurate stereo sensing.The instrument relies on new focal plane array (FPA) technology, which provides excellent sensitivity at much warmer detector temperatures than traditional technologies. This capability enabled a compact, low-cost design that can provide atmospheric motion vectors and cloud heights to support requirements for atmospheric winds in the 2017-2027 Earth Science Decadal Survey. Applications include day/night observations of the planetary boundary layer, severe weather, and wildfires. A comparison with current space-based earth science instruments demonstrates that the SWIR/MWIR multi-spectral capability of CMIS is competitive with larger, more expensive instrumentation. Imagery obtained over a controlled burn and operating nuclear power plant demonstrated the sensitivity of the instrument to temperature variations. The system relies on a mature stereoscopic imaging technique applied to the same scene from two independent platforms to unambiguously retrieve atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) with accurate height assignment.This capability has been successfully applied to geostationary and low-earth orbit satellites to achieve excellent accuracy. When applied to a ground-point validation case, the accuracy for the CMIS aircraft observations was 20 m and 0.3 m/s for cloud heights and motion vectors, respectively. This result was confirmed by a detailed error analysis with analytical and covariance models. The results for CMIS cases with under flights of Aeolus, CALIPSO and Aqua provided a good validation of expected accuracies. The paper also showed the feasibility of accommodating CMIS on CubeSats to enable multiple instruments to be flown in a leader-follower mode.

stereo winds↗

Understanding and Utilizing PBL Height Data from Multiple Observing Systems in the GEOS System

The accuracy of PBL height simulation is a key issue in many applications including forecasting near surface meteorology and air quality, however, it is a very challenging problem due to the lack of not only comprehensive, global Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) observations but also a strategy and infrastructure to utilize PBL height data from a variety of sensors. Following the designation of PBL as an incubation class observable in the 2017 Decadal Survey, the PBL Incubation Study Team Report [14] made clear that “a future global PBL observing system requires modeling and data assimilation as essential components.” There is an urgent need for global modeling development in order to utilize Program of Record (POR) observations, assess their impacts, and identify gaps to be filled by future PBL missions. Our overall objective is to develop PBL data assimilation capabilities in the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS), focusing on PBL height from multiple observing systems, to support the assessment and use of future PBL observations. The NASA GEOS system is composed of the GEOS global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). The PBL parameterizations include the “Lock” K-profile scheme driven by surface and cloud-top buoyancy fluxes ([4]), and the “Louis” local scheme for stable conditions based on the Richardson number ([5]). Above the mixed layer defined by the Lock surface plume, shallow cumulus convection is represented by the mass flux scheme of [9]. Additional parameterizations are summarized in [1]. The ADAS employs the hybrid 4D Ensemble- Variational (EnVar) configuration ([15]), with the ensemble providing flow-dependent background error covariance information. The resultant analysis increments are fed back to the forecast model through the 4D incremental analysis update (IAU) approach ([11]). In this study, PBL height data are being or have been generated from radiosondes, GNSS RO, satellite (CATS, CALIPSO and ICESat-2) and ground-based (MPLNET) lidars, and wind profiler. Investigations have been conducted to specify quality marks for PBL height retrievals for the data assimilation purpose. These PBL height data have different strengths and weaknesses ([2], [3], [6], [7], [8], [10]), and the satellite PBL height data provide better global coverage and complement in-situ PBL height data. Radiosondes offer high accuracy and in situ measurement of temperature and humidity profiles, but with poor spatio-temporal sampling. The in-situ observing systems like MPLNET and wind profiler provide long history of PBL height records at each station. The GNSS RO based PBL height is retrieved based on the sharp gradients in refractivity profile that represent the fine vertical structure of temperature and moisture changes above the PBL. However, not all RO refractivity profiles reach the surface depending on location and regime, and RO refractivity retrievals can be negatively biased below 2km. The PBL height data from satellite lidars provide high resolution along track PBL height retrievals, but over land they are affected by previous day convective PBL aerosol and strongly associated with mixing layer and retrievals cannot be made below thick, attenuating clouds. A successful assimilation of PBL height data requires a thorough understanding of the observing method and the retrieval algorithm for each observing system in order to use the PBL height data from multiple observing systems properly. Due to the sensitivity of PBL height data to the observing method and choice of algorithm, it is important to use a model definition appropriate for each observation type to compute differences between PBL height data and model PBL height (OmFs). The GEOS model currently includes two PBL height definitions suitable for direct comparison with observed PBL height, and additional definitions are being added in this study. Evaluation of different model PBL height definitions is underway. Meanwhile, efforts have been made in the GEOS data assimilation system to develop PBL height data assimilation capability. PBL height data can be assimilated using two different approaches. The traditional approach is to construct an observation operator and its tangent linear and adjoint, which link control variables to PBL height data from each observing system. This observation operator can be very complicated, e.g., the lidar-based PBL height observation operator includes the backscatter lidar forward observation operator, the algorithm to derive PBL height from attenuated total backscatter, interpolation, and calculations handling the mismatch between observed and model scales. The other approach is to augment PBL height to the control variable vector, and it is adopted in this study. The latter approach was also used in previous studies, e.g., the assimilation of PBL height data from radiosonde and aircraft in the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) system for a dispersion modelling study ([13]); the PBL height assimilation study using lidar PBL height data at Greensburg, Kansas for a field campaign ([12]). The PBL height assimilation from multiple observing systems in this study allows us to take advantage of the diverse PBL height data that provide much better global coverage collectively under different meteorological conditions and with different temporal and spatial scales. As all the PBL heights are tightly coupled with the PBL thermodynamic variables, the strong correlations, which are provided by the 4D ensemble forecast, enable PBL height data from various sources to interact and combine coherently and provide additional information for PBL temperature and moisture fields. The results of comparisons among PBL height data from different sources and the evaluation of the model PBL height definitions with the PBL height data will be presented, and the PBL height data synergy strategies and preliminary results will also be discussed at the conference.

Y. Zhu↗

An Oveview of TROPESS Data Products and Services at the NASA GES DISC

The TRopospheric Ozone and Precursors from Earth System Sounding (TROPESS) project generates Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) of ozone, and other atmospheric constituents (CH4,CO, H2O, HDO, NH3, PAN and temperature) by processing data from multiple satellites through a common retrieval algorithm and ground data system. Satellite Level-1B input data used in generating the TROPESS L2 data products include CrIS NOAA-20 (JPSS-1), CrIS SNPP, AIRS Aqua, OMI Aura, and TROPOMI S5P. The common retrieval framework is known as the MUlti-SpEctra, MUlti-SpEcies, Multi-SEnsors (MUSES) science data processing system (MUSES-SDPS). Several of the TROPESS data products are now available from the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Service Center (GES DISC) for users to download. In this presentation we provide an overview of the various TROPESS data products. These data products can be divided into the following Forward Stream types: Standard Products, Summary Products, and Full-Archival Products. Standard Products are for users that are doing full analysis with avenging kernel and covariance corresponding to retrieved vertical profiles. Summary products have a smaller file size and are more convenient for first-look and rapid analysis, include total and partial columns, as well as column averaging kernels. The Full-Archival Products will contain all information used in creating the data. TROPESS also creates Special Products, provided on an as-needed and as-available basis to support NASA field missions and individual-investigator requests over specific regions. Eventually, TROPESS will also produce and deliver a set of Reanalysis Stream products. Data at the GES DISC are being transitioned into the "Cloud". This will allow users with "Cloud” access to perform data analysis directly on the data without downloading the data to their system. Services, such as subsetting and data visualization, will also be provided for TROPESS data products at the GES DISC.

James Johnson↗

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. In its simplest form we decompose the error into a part attributable to phase errors and a remainder. The phase error is represented in the same fashion as a velocity field and is required to vary slowly and smoothly with position. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has two important applications, which we term the assessment application and the objective analysis application. For the assessment application, our approach results in new objective measures of forecast skill which are more in line with subjective measures of forecast skill and which are useful in validating models and diagnosing their shortcomings. With regard to the objective analysis application, meteorological analysis schemes balance forecast error and observational error to obtain an optimal analysis. Presently, representations of the error covariance matrix used to measure the forecast error are severely limited. For the objective analysis application our approach will improve analyses by providing a more realistic measure of the forecast error. We expect, a priori, that our approach should greatly improve the utility of remotely sensed data which have relatively high horizontal resolution, but which are indirectly related to the conventional atmospheric variables. In this project, we are initially focusing on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. Since the forecasts are generated by the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system with and without ERS 1 scatterometer data, these preliminary studies serve several purposes. They (1) provide a testbed for the use of the distortion representation of forecast errors, (2) act as one means of validating the GEOS data assimilation system and (3) help to describe the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer data.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗

Orbit Determination Analysis Utilizing Radiometric and Laser Ranging Measurements for GPS Orbit

While navigation systems for the determination of the orbit of the Global Position System (GPS) have proven to be very effective, the current issues involve lowering the error in the GPS satellite ephemerides below their current level. In this document, the results of an orbit determination covariance assessment are provided. The analysis is intended to be the baseline orbit determination study comparing the benefits of adding laser ranging measurements from various numbers of ground stations. Results are shown for two starting longitude assumptions of the satellite location and for nine initial covariance cases for the GPS satellite state vector.

Welch, Bryan W.↗

Multiple boundary condition testing error analysis

Techniques for interpreting data from multiple-boundary-condition (MBC) ground tests of large space structures are developed analytically and demonstrated. The use of MBC testing to validate structures too large to stand alone on the ground is explained; the generalized least-squares mass and stiffness curve-fitting methods typically applied to MBC test data are reviewed; and a detailed error analysis is performed. Consideration is given to sensitivity coefficients, covariance-matrix theory, the correspondence between test and analysis modes, constraints and step sizes, convergence criteria, and factor-analysis theory. Numerical results for a simple beam problem are presented in tables and briefly characterized. The improved error-updating capabilities of MBC testing are confirmed, and it is concluded that reasonably accurate results can be obtained using a diagonal covariance matrix.

Glaser, R. J.↗

Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Data Assimilation Using NASA GEOS: Estimation of Air-Sea Interface State Variables

Air-sea interface variables, such as the skin Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are essential for atmosphere-ocean coupling. In the NASA GMAO Data Assimilation System (DAS), the skin SST and 3-D atmospheric state are jointly estimated [1]. This presentation is focused on the prior or background error covariance that is used in this analysis. The GEOS DAS uses an ensemble-variational assimilation strategy. In that, specification of a climatological background (CB) error covariance for SST relies on the NOAA's OI SST, with estimates of standard deviation and correlation length scales based on weekly analyses of the bulk SST at 1 degree resolution. However, present analysis system is striving to resolve SST diurnal variability with six hourly analyses and assimilates a vast number of in-situ and satellite observations. The first part of this presentation re-derives the CB error covariance using OSTIA SST analyses and illustrates the impact of this update on assimilating satellite observations. In a hybrid assimilation system the CB error covariances are appended with a flow-dependent background error covariance estimate implied by the underlying ensemble. The second part of this presentation refers to: a. treatment of the skin SST in the ensemble members, b. corresponding ensemble spread, and c. impact of these additions on the data assimilation system. [1] S. Akella, et al. (2017), doi:10.1002/qj.2988

Akella, Santha↗