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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet

We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from three to 11. With previous calibration methods, it would be challenging to go beyond five parameters. Here, this work provides an important next step toward improving the uncertainty quantification of complex, computationally intensive and decision-relevant models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Supplementary Data for "Evaluation of the Economic Implications of Varied Pressure Drawdown Strategies Generated Using a Real-time, Rapid Predictive, Multi-fidelity Model for Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells" by Bello, K., Vikara, D., Sheriff, A., Viswanathan, H., Carr, T., Sweeney, M., O'Malley, D., Marquis, M., Vactor, R.T., and Cunha, L.

The Bello et al. study evaluates the impact of contrasting pressure drawdown on gas productivity and the resulting economics of a well in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin. This research applies a techno-economic analysis approach to help identify potential ways pressure management strategies can be used to improve cumulative recovery of hydraulically fractured horizontal wells while maintaining project profitability. Gas production forecast outlook scenarios of the Marcellus Shale Energy and Environment Laboratory Laboratory's MIP-3H well were generated under varying pressure drawdowns using two approaches: 1) a novel physics-informed machine learning (PIML) workflow and 2) via traditional reservoir simulation in Computer Modeling Group’s (CMG) GEM Compositional & Unconventional Simulator. Cash flow and other economic metrics of interest were compiled on the production outlook using the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM).The sheets within this Microsoft ExcelTM workbook provide the economic metric outputs for the baseline condition and the one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis of UShWEM's input parameters for each of the production scenarios evaluated.

Fracture Network Model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identifying Controlling Variables Related to Mercury Vapor Concentrations in Legacy Facilities: SRNL Technology Development For D&D

A suite of sensor packages has been installed in the Alpha-4 facility at Y-12 and preliminary data analysis to isolate the controlling variables has been performed after two months of data collection. In line with the conceptual model presented in Section 2.0, the preliminary analysis has demonstrated that temperature, barometric pressure, and relative humidity are the key controlling variables for mercury vapor releases within the building. The data analysis will continue to explore these controlling variables across the next several months to capture a more complete picture of the annual change in meteorological conditions at Y-12.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

TA-03-0016 Ion Beam Facility D&D: Sphere of Influence [Slides]

TA-03-0016 Ion Beam Facility: This structure is 70 years old and has been vacant since 1994 and was excessed in 1999. The Ion Beam Facility (IBF) was built in 1953 to support essential post-World War II scientific research and houses LANL's original vertical and tandem Van de Graaff accelerators. The vertical Van de Graaff accelerator was built under the direction of Joseph McKibben from 1948 to 1952 and was used for applied nuclear physics experiments. The Ion Beam facility is considered by NNSA as one of its highest risk process contaminated facilities within the complex. Ion Beam is a radiological facility adjacent to the LANL Occupational Medicine Facility on the south side of TA-3, the most populated technical area at LANL. It poses an undesirable fire risk, especially given its close location to a rugged wooded canyon and difficulties in fighting a wildland fire in such a location. Demolition of this structure will provide a constructable site for critical mission radiological laboratory spaces.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Module D-PR Fuel Fabrication Preface to the D-Modules

Generic Technical Factors Affecting Fuel Fabrication. Many in-reactor physical, chemical, metallurgical, mechanical, thermodynamic, and nucleonic factors influence the design and functionality of nuclear fuel. Detailed discussion of these technical factors is beyond the scope of this cost-oriented preface document; however, the following three references are suggested for a more comprehensive discussion of fuel design requirements for both commercial and special use (military and remote location) reactors: IAEA-TECDOC-1686 (IAEA 2012), the World Nuclear Association webpage “Nuclear Fuel and its Fabrication (WNA 2020a), and INL/EXT-20-54641 (Mariani 2020). To aid the reader’s understanding of how design affects life cycle costs, a few technical factors are also briefly discussed in the sections below.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗