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DOE OSTI2022

Alternative stable states of the forest mycobiome are maintained through positive feedbacks

Most trees on Earth form a symbiosis with either arbuscular mycorrhizal or ectomycorrhizal fungi. By forming common mycorrhizal networks, actively modifying the soil environment and other ecological mechanisms, these contrasting symbioses may generate positive feedbacks that favour their own mycorrhizal strategy (that is, the con-mycorrhizal strategy) at the expense of the alternative strategy. Positive con-mycorrhizal feedbacks set the stage for alternative stable states of forests and their fungi, where the presence of different forest mycorrhizal strategies is determined not only by external environmental conditions but also mycorrhiza-mediated feedbacks embedded within the forest ecosystem. Here, in this work, we test this hypothesis using thousands of US forest inventory sites to show that arbuscular and ectomycorrhizal tree recruitment and survival exhibit positive con-mycorrhizal density dependence. Data-driven simulations show that these positive feedbacks are sufficient in magnitude to generate and maintain alternative stable states of the forest mycobiome. Given the links between forest mycorrhizal strategy and carbon sequestration potential, the presence of mycorrhizal-mediated alternative stable states affects how we forecast forest composition, carbon sequestration and terrestrial climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

2000 The Twin Cities Metropolitan Area Travel Behavior Inventory

The 2000 Twin Cities Metropolitan Area Travel Behavior Inventory, conducted by Twin Cities Metropolitan Council—Saint Paul, was the first major travel survey in the region since 1990. The 2000 inventory includes a home interview survey, an establishment survey, a transit survey, external station traffic counts, and an external station origin/destination survey. The study area under the household inventory survey included the seven counties of the regional Metropolitan Planning Organization and thirteen adjacent counties. Demographic, socioeconomic, and travel data were gathered for 6,386 households. Of these, 6,219 households completed the travel logs, which includes household members older than five years old.

1Hz data↗

DOE OSTI2020

INTERFUEL: FAST -- Fueling Center and EVSE Reporting Process Changes

This presentation presents an overview of coming changes to how federal agencies with motor vehicles will submit required information about fueling centers and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) inventory through the Federal Automotive Statistical Tool (FAST). Historically, information covering these two areas has been provide during two separate data submissions, but is now being consolidated and simplified into a single submission due by December 15 of each year. The presentation provides background on the process, a re-cap of how the information is currently submitted, and describes the new approach for organizations to submit the required information. This presentation is intended for delivery via WebEx/GoToMeeting at the July 8, 2020 meeting of the DOE-sponsored INTERFUEL working group. FAST is a web-based information management tool developed by INL and funded by GSA's Office of Government-wide Policy and DOE's Federal Energy Management Program.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

PIPII cryoplant non thermal cycling updates

The Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II) is a crucial upgrade to the Fermilab accelerator complex, featuring a new 800-MeV Superconducting Radio-Frequency (SRF) linear accelerator (LINAC) with 23 cryomodules operating at 2K. The LINAC thermohydraulic conditions are satisfied by the cryogenic subsystems: Cryogenic Distribution System (CDS), a helium refrigerator cold box (CB), a warm compression station (WCS) and a helium recovery system (RSYS). The accelerator has a strict requirement of non-thermal cycling of the LINAC cryomodules during planned and unplanned subsystem outages. This paper presents an integrated operating modes analysis of the of the LINAC/CDS thermohydraulic loads satisfied by the CB/WCS cooling system supported by the RSYS inventory management system. The study is based on latest cryoplant and CDS engineering deliverables, as well as the recent performance data from single cryomodule qualification tests performed at the Fermilab PIP-II Injector Test test s tand. The study evaluates both normal and abnormal operating modes, with a focus on identifying integrated scenarios that put subsystems components under stress. The conclusions of this study will help build redundancy to reduce the risk of thermal cycles during planned and unplanned subsystem outages.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Nuclear Data Impact on Key Metrics for a Representative Molten Chloride Fast Reactor Model

Nuclear data are an essential component of the foundation on which all modeling and simulation methods and tools are relying upon, from the front end to the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle. In this study, the impact of uncertainties in nuclear data is investigated for a representative molten chloride fast reactor, for several important metrics, including eigenvalue, reactivity differences, and nuclide inventories in fuel at 5-yr irradiation. Uncertainty of keff for a full core model was found to be similar between the fresh fuel and the irradiated fuel states (1.7-1.8%), with its primary driver being the uncertainty in the 235U (n,γ) cross section. The results obtained for the reactivity differences show large uncertainties, of over 100%, in elastic scattering sensitivities of several nuclides, which led to large uncertainties of temperature reactivity differences for cladding and reflector. These results provide evidence that the currently applied methods may not be sufficiently adequate for ensuring the reliable determination of such metrics.

Procop, Germina [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000342226393)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Defining a Metric to Assess Leachability of Contaminants from Cementitious Waste Forms in Lab Testing Related to Hanford - 20478

This paper reports on the determination of performance metrics for the release of four contaminants (technetium, iodine, nitrate, and chromium) from a theoretical supplemental low-activity waste (LAW) inventory of grout in the Hanford Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF). The performance metric was defined as a retardation factor, R, that can be used to quantify a waste form's ability to retain one contaminant compared with an un-retarded species (e.g., sodium). By setting the target R value at the magnitude required to maintain concentrations of the contaminants below the drinking water standard at the point of compliance for the IDF, a bar for grout leach performance can be established for screening laboratory leach test data. The R can be converted to a corresponding laboratory-observed diffusivity value against which to assess leach test data. The individual performance metrics were determined through an iterative set of simulations using a variable saturation and transport flow model of a grout waste form inventory in the IDF to calculate the resulting concentration-based requirements at the point of compliance. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

FY24 Report on Water NSTF Testing: Lower Tank Inlet Piping Configuration

The following report serves as a summary of the accomplishments and testing results by the Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) experimental program over the past 12-month period. A major activity included reconfiguration of the chimney piping geometry which altered the discharge position into the tank from the original 50% tank height to a new lower position at a 10.9% tank height. This modification increases the volume of available coolant thus extending long-term operating capacity, however also results in a decreased liquid driving head which has the potential to reduce the natural circulation efficiency and decrease overall performance. Examination of the tradeoffs for these two configurations is an area of interest for RCCS designers and drove planned test activities this year. Ten matrix tests were performed in FY24, totaling 195 hours of heated operations and 12.9 MWh of electrical heating throughout the year, with eight classified as Accepted per NQA-1 and two classified as Trending. Testing prior to the facility reconfiguration examined the facility response to throttling at the tank inlet, demonstrating increased sensitivity of flow instabilities to throttling within the two-phase region when compared to throttling at the lower sensitivity single-phase inlet region. Testing after the chimney reconfiguration began with a baseline test at conditions of 80% inventory fill and prototypic thermal power input of 2.1 MW t . In addition to establishing a reference for nominal system behavior and performance, repeat testing with multiple subsequent runs demonstrated strong repeatability between tests performed at the same conditions in this new configuration. These tests also examined if influences would occur to system behavior with installation of new higher-resolution instrumentation within the upper chimney. In this critical region where boiling and flashing phenomena dominate, the test results provided confidence that the new instrumentation does not uncharacteristically influence the observed behaviors. An inventory parametric series was then initiated to examine system behavior with the new chimney configuration at six varying initial inventory levels, ranging from high 80% to low 20% fill. Two-phase oscillations with similar peak and mean flow rates were observed when comparing to the previous mid tank configuration. Generally, similar system response trends with inventory were also observed, such as two phase oscillations suppressing as inventories were lowered. However, in one absolute inventory comparison at the highest fill of 80%, flow oscillations saw a gradual growth over the 4 hours of two-phase operation in the new lower tank inlet configuration, opposite of the gradual dampening observed in the mid tank inlet configuration. This can be attributed to, in part, a greater hydrostatic head pressure above the two-phase discharge region where the boiling front is developed. Furthermore, the change resulted in greater sensitivity to liquid degassing phenomena during single-phase heating, causing loop instabilities to form which trigged moderate flow degradation during the period approaching saturation and boiling conditions. This behavior had been observed previously under some conditions but was a common occurrence in recent testing with the newer lower tank inlet configuration. Initial observations from these first data sets suggest an overall larger window of stability for the mid tank inlet configuration compared to the lower tank inlet. Lastly, the lowest inventory fill test was repeated over an extended testing window to examine depletion behavior. Natural circulation flow and effective heat removal performance were observed during most of the testing period; only after the tank became fully drained (0% fill) did flow stagnate and violent geysering events occur. This early observation confirms one relative advantage over the mid tank inlet configuration, which stagnated under comparable conditions at ~20% inventory remaining in the tank.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving commercial truck fleet composition in emission modeling using 2021 US VIUS data

Commercial trucks are essential elements of the nation's supply chain system. Meanwhile, intensive truck movements contribute significantly to system externalities, such as energy use and air pollution. However, collecting detailed fleet composition and distribution of operational patterns remains a barrier to accurately accounting for these impacts. The recently released 2021 US Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (US VIUS) fills a critical gap in understanding commercial truck fleet distributions, their operations, and business constraints at the national scale. This study aims to understand the latest US commercial vehicle fleet composition and operational characteristics using 2021 US VIUS data and calibrate the fleet inputs in regulatory emission models to assess the potential emission implications of the VIUS-derived fleet composition. The emission rates for commercial trucks and default fleet composition are collected from the U.S. EPA's MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES4). The 2021 US VIUS data is applied to improve fleet characteristics such as the long-haul fraction and the vehicle mileage accumulation rate. The study also investigates potential emission reduction benefits under various forecasted fleet electrification scenarios. The energy consumption and critical air pollutant rates by vehicle types are compared between MOVES4 and US VIUS fleets for both current and future scenarios to provide insights into the latest U.S. commercial vehicle fleet characteristics and their implications on energy and emissions. This study helps policymakers and practitioners advance the commercial fleet generation for emission models. It also deepens the understanding of the emission reduction potential of the commercial fleet under various fleet projections.

2021 US VIUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

FY22 Progress on Computational Modeling of the Water-Based NSTF

This report summarizes the system-level modeling effort by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) of the Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) in FY22. As an extension of the effort from FY21, this year’s work focuses primarily on the two-phase modeling of the NSTF using RELAP5-3D, particularly with the inclusion of the cavity model. The results from simulations were used to compare against experimental data for benchmarking purposes of the RELAP5 deck. Additionally, RELAP5 was used as a predictive tool to guide planned test operations and identify expected system behaviors. In the first part of this report, details are provided of the cavity omitted model where heat flux is applied directly as a boundary condition to the risers. The general trend predicted by the RELAP5 model matches that from the experimental data when a single-phase natural circulation flow is first established, followed by an oscillatory two-phase period and finally a stable two-phase flow. However, the onset of oscillations is predicted early by the model due to the smaller thermal mixing region in the tank. However, by expanding the simulated thermal mixing region in the tank, the onset of oscillations predicted by the model is able to match that from the experiment. These oscillations where studied in depth and are deduced to be flashing-induced instability. The model was then modified to simulate an accident scenario case where a representative heat load based on the full-scale Framatome’s 625 MW t SC-HTGR was applied directly to the riser channels. The simulated initial and boundary conditions were identical to those performed experimentally, facilitating direct comparisons between the predicted and experimental results. It was determined that the results showed some discrepancies remain, likely due to the overprediction of vapor generation rate by the computer model. In the second part of this report, the cavity model is re-introduced where it is observed that the RELAP5 prediction is now able to capture the major trends of the observed flow commonly observed during two-phase conditions. However, the onset of oscillations is once again predicted early by the model, possibly caused by the underprediction of heat loss from the heater and cavity. This is likely due to the omission of support structures in the cavity that can act as additional pathways for heat to escape to the environment. To overcome the underprediction of heat loss, part of the insulation surrounding the cavity side panels and the back of the heaters are removed to allow heat to escape directly to the environment, which then improves the RELAP5 prediction. Parametric studies are also performed to investigate the effects of heater power, tank inventory level, and tank gas space pressure on flow behaviors, also in direct comparison to conditions tested experimentally. User option-61 in the RELAP5-3D input deck, which changes the heat transfer coefficient correlations used for calculating the vapor generation, is also investigated where it is found that by enabling the option, the overall duration of oscillations is increased and matches that from the experiment better. The RELAP5 model is further benchmarked with a header inlet- throttling case where it is observed that the prediction from the model fails to capture some major features observed in the experiment. By using a modified loss coefficient curve for the valve, the accuracy of the prediction is improved where most of the major features observed in the experiment are predicted by the model. Lastly, the model is benchmarked with an inventory depletion scenario where it is observed that despite the modeling limitation of RELAP5, the prediction shows good agreement with the experimental data where major trends and features are captured by the model. Future work will see continued development of the current RELAP5-3D input deck of the NSTF to both improve the accuracy of the model’s predictive capability and continuing serving the experimental program. The mutually beneficial relationship between analysis and experimental efforts has become integral to the parent NSTF program, and the greater objective to fully understand and accurately predict the heat removal performance of a full scale RCCS concept.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

An atom probe tomography and inventory calculation examination of second phase precipitates in neutron irradiated single crystal tungsten

Tungsten is the prime candidate material for the plasma facing divertor system and first wall armor of future nuclear fusion reactors. However, the understanding of the microstructural and chemical evolution of pure tungsten under neutron irradiation is relatively unknown, in part due to a lack of experimental data on this topic. Here, single crystal tungsten has been irradiated in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory at a nominal temperature of 700–800 °C to damage levels of 0.1 and 1.8 displacements per atom (dpa). Inventory calculations of the neutron irradiation experiments have been used to track isotope generation and decay to inform atom probe tomography (APT) results in the determination of the transmutation-induced precipitate compositions. Furthermore, APT crystallography has been used to show the relationship between precipitates and matrix. The composition of the precipitates is shown to progress towards that of the σ-phase at the highest dose studied, with those precipitates lying along crystallographic planes similar to those of displacement-induced dislocations. This work also sets the framework for APT studies of materials that contain isotopic ratios far from those observed in the natural state.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Methane fluxes in tidal marshes of the conterminous United States

Abstract Methane (CH 4 ) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) with atmospheric concentrations that have nearly tripled since pre‐industrial times. Wetlands account for a large share of global CH 4 emissions, yet the magnitude and factors controlling CH 4 fluxes in tidal wetlands remain uncertain. We synthesized CH 4 flux data from 100 chamber and 9 eddy covariance (EC) sites across tidal marshes in the conterminous United States to assess controlling factors and improve predictions of CH 4 emissions. This effort included creating an open‐source database of chamber‐based GHG fluxes ( https://doi.org/10.25573/serc.14227085 ). Annual fluxes across chamber and EC sites averaged 26 ± 53 g CH 4 m −2 year −1 , with a median of 3.9 g CH 4 m −2 year −1 , and only 25% of sites exceeding 18 g CH 4 m −2 year −1 . The highest fluxes were observed at fresh‐oligohaline sites with daily maximum temperature normals (MATmax) above 25.6°C. These were followed by frequently inundated low and mid‐fresh‐oligohaline marshes with MATmax ≤25.6°C, and mesohaline sites with MATmax >19°C. Quantile regressions of paired chamber CH 4 flux and porewater biogeochemistry revealed that the 90th percentile of fluxes fell below 5 ± 3 nmol m −2 s −1 at sulfate concentrations >4.7 ± 0.6 mM, porewater salinity >21 ± 2 psu, or surface water salinity >15 ± 3 psu. Across sites, salinity was the dominant predictor of annual CH 4 fluxes, while within sites, temperature, gross primary productivity (GPP), and tidal height controlled variability at diel and seasonal scales. At the diel scale, GPP preceded temperature in importance for predicting CH 4 flux changes, while the opposite was observed at the seasonal scale. Water levels influenced the timing and pathway of diel CH 4 fluxes, with pulsed releases of stored CH 4 at low to rising tide. This study provides data and methods to improve tidal marsh CH 4 emission estimates, support blue carbon assessments, and refine national and global GHG inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Inventory Management Improvement Project

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) conducts research and development for the National Nuclear Security Agency (NNSA) and its affiliates. The Polymer AM team at LLNL conducts research and development in 3D printing, specifically direct-ink-write, in accordance with LLNL and NNSA missions. The team is composed of machine operators, chemists, testing engineers, and project engineers across multiple lab spaces with one shared storage area at LLNL. The operations use a variety of different consumables and hardware to conduct research applications for LLNL and NNSA. These items are critical to performing operation tasks; if an item is out of stock, operations associated with the respective item could be suspended for weeks. As such, the Polymer AM team manages an inventory of spare consumables and hardware to ensure these items are always available. However, the current management system, an excel sheet managed by the project engineer group, is not intuitive in providing inventory information despite the high labor utilization needed to maintain the system. As such, the team is looking to improve their inventory management that can send notifications regarding inventory needs, accessible to other team members, provide all relevant information to a specific item, and store historical information for budget and operation planning. The proposed solution is a Computer Maintenance Management System (CMMS): a web-based management software that stores inventory information and provides automated notifications. The system will store information on each item including quantity in stock, technical information, supplier information, costs, lead times, and expiration date. The system has a notifications function that can send notifications to the respective team member’s when an item needs to be counted, item inventory is low, or an item is approaching their expiration date. Information for each item can be tracked over time creating data to be used for budget planning and process improvement purposes. Due to its web-based source, the system can be accessed by the respective team member viewing technical information, quantity, and purchasing information.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2019

City and County Vehicle Inventories

This light-duty vehicle inventory dataset provides information on vehicle registrations by vehicle type (car vs. truck), fuel type, and model year showing the changes in adoption trends over time and average fuel economies. This data is part of a suite of state and local energy profile data available at the "State and Local Energy Profile Data Suite" link below and builds on Cities-LEAP energy modeling, available at the "EERE Cities-LEAP Page" link below. Examples of how to use the data to inform energy planning can be found at the "Example Uses" link below.

Alternative Fuel↗

DOE OSTI2023

Inventory for Crystalline Silicon Module Recycling: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

A critical challenge for the continued expansion of photovoltaics (PV) is to develop technically feasible, inexpensive and environmentally friendly practices for handling and recycling modules at the end of their usable life. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is requested by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to collect primary data regarding the environmental performance of currently operational PV module recycling facilities in Europe. Very little has been published regarding crystalline silicon (C-Si) module recycling. Thus, much effort will be needed in direct industry outreach, collection of information and other business intelligence strategies similar to NREL's approaches for developing cost models for PV manufacturing. The goal of this work effort is to produce a detailed inventory that accounts for physical (e.g., energy, water, materials) flows through each step of a C-Si recycling process. The inventory (a life cycle inventory, or LCI) shall be designed so that it can be extended to include an accounting of costs for each process step, inputs, etc. This work effort shall leverage prior LCI data collection NREL performed for the United States Department of Energy, Solar Energy Technologies Office, under the auspices of the U.S. contribution to International Energy Agency's Photovoltaics Power Systems (PVPS) Task 12 (Environmental Health and Safety), which SETO nominated NREL to chair. The primary purpose of this work effort is to augment the prior data collection to increase the sample size of manufacturers' primary data in the LCI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Algorithms for Scrutiny of Mandatory State Reports Declarations to the IAEA (Final Project Report)

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA, or Agency) has an interest in applying machine learning to safeguards problems. However, the lack of machine training data for outside researchers is a significant impediment for progress in including advanced algorithms in safeguards practices. Information about a State’s inventory and movements of nuclear material is highly sensitive, both from a commercial perspective and from a security perspective. States (and commercial entities) do not freely divulge this information, and the IAEA–which receives detailed information from States as accounting reports–considers all information concerning nuclear materials location and composition to be Safeguards Confidential. Even within the Agency, information marked as safeguards confidential can be accessed only on a direct need-to-know basis by those who analyze and summarize the information for that particular State.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Representativeness assessment of the pan-Arctic eddy covariance site network and optimized future enhancements

Abstract. Large changes in the Arctic carbon balance are expected as warming linked to climate change threatens to destabilize ancient permafrost carbon stocks. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an established technique to quantify net losses and gains of carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere at high spatiotemporal resolution. Over the past decades, a growing network of terrestrial EC tower sites has been established across the Arctic, but a comprehensive assessment of the network's representativeness within the heterogeneous Arctic region is still lacking. This creates additional uncertainties when integrating flux data across sites, for example when upscaling fluxes to constrain pan-Arctic carbon budgets and changes therein. This study provides an inventory of Arctic (here > = 60∘ N) EC sites, which has also been made available online (https://cosima.nceas.ucsb.edu/carbon-flux-sites/, last access: 25 January 2022). Our database currently comprises 120 EC sites, but only 83 are listed as active, and just 25 of these active sites remain operational throughout the winter. To map the representativeness of this EC network, we evaluated the similarity between environmental conditions observed at the tower locations and those within the larger Arctic study domain based on 18 bioclimatic and edaphic variables. This allows us to assess a general level of similarity between ecosystem conditions within the domain, while not necessarily reflecting changes in greenhouse gas flux rates directly. We define two metrics based on this representativeness score: one that measures whether a location is represented by an EC tower with similar characteristics (ER1) and a second for which we assess if a minimum level of representation for statistically rigorous extrapolation is met (ER4). We find that while half of the domain is represented by at least one tower, only a third has enough towers in similar locations to allow reliable extrapolation. When we consider methane measurements or year-round (including wintertime) measurements, the values drop to about 1/5 and 1/10 of the domain, respectively. With the majority of sites located in Fennoscandia and Alaska, these regions were assigned the highest level of network representativeness, while large parts of Siberia and patches of Canada were classified as underrepresented. Across the Arctic, mountainous regions were particularly poorly represented by the current EC observation network. We tested three different strategies to identify new site locations or upgrades of existing sites that optimally enhance the representativeness of the current EC network. While 15 new sites can improve the representativeness of the pan-Arctic network by 20 %, upgrading as few as 10 existing sites to capture methane fluxes or remain active during wintertime can improve their respective ER1 network coverage by 28 % to 33 %. This targeted network improvement could be shown to be clearly superior to an unguided selection of new sites, therefore leading to substantial improvements in network coverage based on relatively small investments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Methane Monitoring Platform Extension, Volume I: Final Technical Report

The IMMPE project, DE-FE0032284, was to enhance methane monitoring technologies and their applications across various natural gas asset classes. The scope included deploying advanced methane detection and monitoring technologies to identify and mitigate fugitive methane emissions, measuring emission rates, and assessing impacts. The findings included the successful mitigation of identified emissions and quantification of emission rates. A key outcome was the development of a comprehensive template and summary of recommendations for methane emissions monitoring, which is replicable for both upstream and downstream applications. Furthermore, the project emphasized the importance of education by providing training opportunities for technicians and regulators, thereby fostering awareness and promoting the adoption of cost-effective methane emissions monitoring and management techniques.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2026

Oil price states and drivers: An analysis of the second-month spot-futures price differential

Oil remains a dominant component of global energy use, and its price, characterized by frequent changes and an ever-present potential for large swings, continues to be a focus of industry participants, policymakers and analysts attention. Here, this study examines the behavior of future spot oil prices using a continuous-time hidden Markov model (HMM) and daily price data spanning years 2007 to 2024. We identify six states in the second-month WTI spot-futures price differential and assess the roles of eleven futures price, quantity, financial market, and geopolitical/volatility variables in each state. The model yields several insights into the workings of the oil market and the relative roles of these drivers. We find support for several theoretical and empirical findings in the oil market literature, including the role of inventory, volatility/risk, and market responses to contango/backwardation in futures markets. A novel finding is that “normal contango” conditions represent a significant portion of next-day states in our in-sample data. Under the most volatile normal contango state, many of the oil market drivers differ markedly in coefficient signs and magnitudes from those in other states. The resulting model also performed well out-of-sample and would, in addition to understanding the impact of market drivers, be useful for short-term forecasting. Overall, the findings highlight the highly non-linear, regime-dependent interactions of the oil price and its drivers, emphasizing the importance of detailed information to market stakeholders.

Oladosu, Gbadebo A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗