SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “detection probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2011

Lightning Initiation Forecasting: An Operational Dual-Polarimetric Radar Technique

The objective of this NASA MSFC and NOAA CSTAR funded study is to develop and test operational forecast algorithms for the prediction of lightning initiation utilizing the C-band dual-polarimetric radar, UAHuntsville's Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Although there is a rich research history of radar signatures associated with lightning initiation, few studies have utilized dual-polarimetric radar signatures (e.g., Z(sub dr) columns) and capabilities (e.g., fuzzy-logic particle identification [PID] of precipitation ice) in an operational algorithm for first flash forecasting. The specific goal of this study is to develop and test polarimetric techniques that enhance the performance of current operational radar reflectivity based first flash algorithms. Improving lightning watch and warning performance will positively impact personnel safety in both work and leisure environments. Advanced warnings can provide space shuttle launch managers time to respond appropriately to secure equipment and personnel, while they can also provide appropriate warnings for spectators and players of leisure sporting events to seek safe shelter. Through the analysis of eight case dates, consisting of 35 pulse-type thunderstorms and 20 non-thunderstorm case studies, lightning initiation forecast techniques were developed and tested. The hypothesis is that the additional dual-polarimetric information could potentially reduce false alarms while maintaining high probability of detection and increasing lead-time for the prediction of the first lightning flash relative to reflectivity-only based techniques. To test the hypothesis, various physically-based techniques using polarimetric variables and/or PID categories, which are strongly correlated to initial storm electrification (e.g., large precipitation ice production via drop freezing), were benchmarked against the operational reflectivity-only based approaches to find the best compromise between forecast skill and lead-time. Forecast skill is determined by statistical analysis of probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Operational Utility Index (OUI), and critical success index (CSI).

Woodard, Crystal J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of Nondestructive Evaluation Capabilities at NASA MSFC

Nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods examine material integrity without impairing its usefulness. The NDE team at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama is responsible for applying existing methods to new hardware designs and material systems, probability of detection studies to quantify detection capabilities, overseeing NDE requirements for flight hardware, inspecting development articles and flight hardware, engineering support for failure investigations, and investigating emerging NDE methods. NASA MSFC has been on the cutting edge of developing new NDE techniques, first for the space shuttle, then for composite structures, and most recently for additive manufacturing (AM). Standard in-house inspection capabilities include eddy current, magnetic particle, liquid penetrant, ultrasonic, and radiographic testing (including computed tomography). Other advanced inspection capabilities include infrared flash thermography, shearography, acoustic emission, and microwave/millimeter wave testing. Some recent research studies include AM probability of detection testing, investigating in-situ process monitoring methods for AM, and correlating the NDE response of true fatigue cracks with artificial notches.

nondestructive evaluation↗

DOE OSTI2019

Probabilistic limit of detection for ricin identification using a shotgun proteomics assay

Robust and highly specific methods for the detection of the protein toxin ricin are of interest to the law enforcement community. In previous studies, methods based on liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry shotgun proteomics have been proposed. The successful implementation of this approach relies on specific data evaluation criteria addressing (1) the quality of the mass spectrometric data, (2) the confidence of peptide identifications (peptide-spectrum matches), and (3) the number and sequence specificity of peptides detected. We present such data evaluation criteria, and use a novel approach to establish the limit of detection for this ricin assay. Specifically, we use logistic regression to determine the probability of detection for individual ricin peptides at different concentrations. We then apply basic rules from probability theory, combining these individual peptide probabilities into an overall assay limit of detection. This procedure yields an assay limit of detection for ricin at 42.5 ng on column or 21.25 ng/µL for a 2-µL injection. We also show that, in spite of the conventional wisdom that detergents are deleterious to mass spectrometric analyses, the presence of Tween-20 did not prevent detection of ricin peptides, and indeed assays performed in buffers that included Tween-20 gave better results than assays performed using other buffer formulations with or without detergent removal.

Heller, Natalie C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Severe Convective Storms in Limited Instability Organized by Pattern and Distribution

Abstract Severe convection occurring in high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments is a common cool-season threat in the southeastern United States. Previous studies of HSLC convection document the increased operational challenges that these environments present compared to their high-CAPE counterparts, corresponding to higher false-alarm ratios and lower probability of detection for severe watches and warnings. These environments can exhibit rapid destabilization in the hours prior to convection, sometimes associated with the release of potential instability. Here, we use self-organizing maps (SOMs) to objectively identify environmental patterns accompanying HSLC cool-season severe events and associate them with variations in severe weather frequency and distribution. Large-scale patterns exhibit modest variation within the HSLC subclass, featuring strong surface cyclones accompanied by vigorous upper-tropospheric troughs and northward-extending regions of instability, consistent with prior studies. In most patterns, severe weather occurs immediately ahead of a cold front. Other convective ingredients, such as lower-tropospheric vertical wind shear, near-surface equivalent potential temperature (θ e ) advection, and the release of potential instability, varied more significantly across patterns. No single variable used to train SOMs consistently demonstrated differences in the distribution of severe weather occurrence across patterns. Comparison of SOMs based on upper and lower quartiles of severe occurrence demonstrated that the release of potential instability was most consistently associated with higher-impact events in comparison to other convective ingredients. Overall, we find that previously developed HSLC composite parameters reasonably identify high-impact HSLC events. Significance Statement Even when atmospheric instability is not optimal for severe convective storms, in some situations they can still occur, presenting increased challenges to forecasters. These marginal environments may occur at night or during the cool season, when people are less attuned to severe weather threats. Here, we use a sorting algorithm to classify different weather patterns accompanying such storms, and we distinguish which specific patterns and weather system features are most strongly associated with severe storms. Our goals are to increase situational awareness for forecasters and to improve understanding of the processes leading to severe convection in marginal environments.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2017

Where and When: Optimal Scheduling of the Electromagnetic Follow-up of Gravitational-wave Events Based on Counterpart Light-curve Models

The electromagnetic (EM) follow-up of a gravitational-wave (GW) event requires scanning a wide sky region, defined by the so-called “skymap,” to detect and identify a transient counterpart. We propose a novel method that exploits the information encoded in the GW signal to construct a “detectability map,” which represents the time-dependent (“when”) probability of detecting the transient at each position of the skymap (“where”). Focusing on the case of a neutron star binary inspiral, we model the associated short gamma-ray burst afterglow and macronova emission using the probability distributions of binary parameters (sky position, distance, orbit inclination, mass ratio) extracted from the GW signal as inputs. The resulting family of possible light curves is the basis for constructing the detectability map. As a practical example, we apply the method to a simulated GW signal produced by a neutron star merger at 75 Mpc whose localization uncertainty is very large (∼1500 deg{sup 2}). We construct observing strategies for optical, infrared, and radio facilities based on the detectability maps, taking VST, VISTA, and MeerKAT as prototypes. Assuming limiting fluxes of r∼24.5, J∼22.4 (AB magnitudes), and 500 μJy (1.4 GHz) for ∼1000 s of exposure each, the afterglow and macronova emissions are successfully detected with a minimum observing time of 7, 15, and 5 hr respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Wind turbine blade shear web disbond detection using rotor blade operational sensing and data analysis

A wind turbine blade's structural dynamic response is simulated and analyzed with the goal of characterizing the presence and severity of a shear web disbond. Computer models of a 5 MW offshore utility-scale wind turbine were created to develop effective algorithms for detecting such damage. Through data analysis and with the use of blade measurements, a shear web disbond was quantified according to its length. An aerodynamic sensitivity study was conducted to ensure robustness of the detection algorithms. In all analyses, the blade's flap-wise acceleration and root-pitching moment were the clearest indicators of the presence and severity of a shear web disbond. A combination of blade and non-blade measurements was formulated into a final algorithm for the detection and quantification of the disbond. Here, the probability of detection was 100% for the optimized wind speed ranges in laminar, 30% horizontal shear and 60% horizontal shear conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

Reliability analysis and fault-tolerant system development for a redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit

A methodology is developed and applied for quantitatively analyzing the reliability of a dual, fail-operational redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit (RSDIMU). A Markov evaluation model is defined in terms of the operational states of the RSDIMU to predict system reliability. A 27 state model is defined based upon a candidate redundancy management system which can detect and isolate a spectrum of failure magnitudes. The results of parametric studies are presented which show the effect on reliability of the gyro failure rate, both the gyro and accelerometer failure rates together, false alarms, probability of failure detection, probability of failure isolation, and probability of damage effects and mission time. A technique is developed and evaluated for generating dynamic thresholds for detecting and isolating failures of the dual, separated IMU. Special emphasis is given to the detection of multiple, nonconcurrent failures. Digital simulation time histories are presented which show the thresholds obtained and their effectiveness in detecting and isolating sensor failures.

Motyka, P.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Scalable in situ non-destructive evaluation of additively manufactured components using process monitoring, sensor fusion, and machine learning

Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM) is among the metal 3D printing technologies most broadly adopted by the manufacturing industry. However, the current industry qualification paradigm for critical-application L-PBF parts relies heavily on expensive non-destructive inspection techniques, which significantly limits the use-cases of L-PBF. In situ monitoring of the process promises a less expensive alternative to ex situ testing, but existing sensor technologies and data analysis techniques struggle to detect sub-surface flaws (e.g., porosity and cracking) on production-scale L-PBF printers. In this work, an in situ NDE (INDE) system was engineered to detect subsurface flaws detected in X-Ray Computed Tomography (XCT) directly from process monitoring data. A multilayer, multimodal data input allowed the INDE system to detect numerous subsurface flaws in the size range of 200–1000µm using a novel human-in-the-loop annotation procedure. Furthermore, a framework was established for generating probability-of-detection (POD) and probability-of-false-alarm (PFA) curves compliant with NDE standards by systematically comparing instances of detected subsurface flaws to post-build XCT data. Here, we also introduce for the first time in the AM in situ sensing literature the a 90/95 – the flaw size corresponding to a 90% detection rate on the lower 95% confidence interval of the POD curve. The INDE system successfully demonstrated POD capabilities commensurate with traditional NDE methods. Traditional ML performance metrics were also shown to be inadequate for assessing the ability of the INDE system’s flaw detection performance. It is the hope of the authors that future studies will adopt the POD and PFA approach outlined here to provide better insight into the utility of process monitoring for AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Model evaluation guidelines for geomagnetic index predictions

Geomagnetic indices are convenient quantities that distill the complicated physics of some region or aspect of near–Earth space into a single parameter. Most of the best–known indices are calculated from ground–based magnetometer data sets, such as Dst, SYM–H, Kp, AE, AL, and PC. Many models have been created that predict the values of these indices, often using solar wind measurements upstream from Earth as the input variables to the calculation. This document reviews the current state of models that predict geomagnetic indices and the methods used to assess their ability to reproduce the target index time series. These existing methods are synthesized into a baseline collection of metrics for benchmarking a new or updated geomagnetic index prediction model. These methods fall into two categories: (1) fit performance metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) that are applied to a time–series comparison of model output and observations; and (2) event detection performance metrics such as Heidke Skill Score and probability of detection (POD) that are derived from a contingency table that compares model and observation values exceeding (or not) a threshold value. Furthermore, a few examples of codes being used with this set of metrics are presented, and other aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, and uncertainties are discussed, including several caveats to consider when using geomagnetic indices.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing a supernova’s standing accretion shock instability with neutrinos and gravitational waves

Here, we perform a novel multi-messenger analysis for the identification and parameter estimation of the Standing Accretion Shock Instability (SASI) in a core collapse supernova with neutrino and gravitational wave (GW) signals. In the neutrino channel, this method performs a likelihood ratio test for the presence of SASI in the frequency domain. For gravitational wave signals we process an event with a modified constrained likelihood method. Using simulated supernova signals, the properties of the Hyper-Kamiokande neutrino detector, and O3 LIGO Interferometric data, we produce the two-dimensional probability density distribution (PDF) of the SASI activity indicator and calculate the probability of detection P D as well as the false identification probability P FI . We discuss the probability to establish the presence of the SASI as a function of the source distance in each observational channel, as well as jointly. Compared to a single-messenger approach, the joint analysis results in P D (at P FI = 0.1) of SASI activities that is larger by up to ≈ 40% for a distance to the supernova of 5 kpc. We also discuss how accurately the frequency and duration of the SASI activity can be estimated in each channel separately. Our methodology is suitable for implementation in a realistic data analysis and a multi-messenger setting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Nuclear Security: Quantifying Late Detection in MC&A for Item Inventories

This objectives for this presentation are to understand how physical inventories, sampling plans, and other checks of the inventory factor into detection of insider activity; be able to quantify the probability of detection for various scenarios in a single inventory and over several inventories; and understand how physical inventory and sampling procedures relate to the assumptions, analysis, and scenarios in the vulnerability assessment.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2022

Kilonova Detectability with Wide-Field Instruments [Slides]

A diverse set of instruments increase the chances of detecting and identifying a kilonova. Early observations increase the probability of detection. More sensitive wide-field ultraviolet instruments are needed as GW detectors reach design sensitivity. There is a dearth of wide-field infrared instruments. These results are useful for guiding kilonova searches following a GW detection and sGRD observation, proposals for time on current and upcoming instruments, and planning future wide-field instruments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Kilonova Detectability with Wide-Field Instruments

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1989

Echo asymmetry and its impact on NEXRAD storm identification

The effects of echo shape and radar viewing angle on the detections of cells are investigated. A chart representing the probability of detection of a storm is derived. Case studies from Florida and Alabama are analyzed in order to assess the performance of NEXRAD. It is noted that the current thresholds for storm identification for NEXRAD are inadequate for identifying small lightning-producing storms. Time-history and radar-reflectivity charts for the storms are provided.

Buechler, Dennis E.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Obtaining the Mass and Radius of Extra-Solar Giant Planets

The scientific utility and feasibility of detecting transits of the 9 known extrasolar planets is explored. A transit of a solar-like star by a Jupiter mass planet produces a 1% decrease in the amount of light received from the star. Transit observation will remove the ambiguity in the measurement of the planetary mass inherent in the radial velocity method and confirm the planet's existence. The 9 known planets have a 33% chance of producing at least one observable transit. Additional extrasolar planet detections from the radial velocity surveys will increase this probability to greater than 90%. The radius of the planet can be determined by the fractional decrease in light received during transit. The mass and radius may distinguish rocky or gas giant planets from brown dwarfs. The probability of detection, the transit signal size and duration, and predictions of the transit times (including errors) are calculated for circular and elliptical orbits. Observational limits are investigated and it is shown that small telescopes and existing detectors are adequate enough to achieve the 0.1% photometry necessary to detect transits of the known extrasolar planets.

Castellano, Tim↗

DOE OSTI2016

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Spent Fuel Pool Cooling System Failure Considering Safety and Security Initiating Events

In order to quantify the probable risk associated with a safety system, nuclear safety risk evaluation process is applied which is generally performed in three steps. The first step is to calculate the damage frequency of a critical system. This step is followed by the radioactive source term estimation due to the potential system damage. The final step is the assessment of off-site consequences. The safety risk formula is shown by Eq. (1). P{sub F} is the probability of safety system failure (the probability used describes a random, independent event), and C is the consequence value. R{sub SAF} = P{sub F} * C (1) The security risk associated with an attack on critical infrastructure and/or special nuclear materials theft is usually evaluated using three- term risk equation (probability of attack, probability of adversary success, and consequence). A security threat and the related initiating events are not considered in a pure safety risk analysis. The vulnerability of the physical protection system is performed independently even though the consequence resulting from a security initiating event can be similar to a safety related initiating event and thus gets double counted. The security risk can be calculated using Eq. (2) R{sub SEC} = P{sub A} * P{sub S} * C (2) PA is the probability of attack, P{sub S} is the probability of adversary success (P{sub S} = 1 - P{sub I} P{sub N}). P{sub I} being the probability of interruption which accounts for the probabilities of detection of all timely detection elements along an adversary path. PN being the probability of neutralization: the result of engagement of the response force with the adversaries after the interruption has occurred. C is the consequence magnitude from a successful attack. The two security probabilities do not describe random, independent events. As a result, because of the differences in the randomness and independence of the respective safety and security probabilities, the safety and the security risks are currently calculated separately. The consequence term in nuclear safety and security risk evaluation have the same definition. An effort is made here to study the effect on the overall risk by considering security initiating events along with the subsequent failure of the intermediate safety element. The target selected is a spent fuel storage pool for analyzing the public risk arising from the interplay between nuclear security and safety initiating events. EASI (Estimate of Adversary Sequence Interruption) model is used to calculate the probability of interruption related to a security system that leads to the calculation of the security initiating event frequency. Further progression of this initiating security event to a top event is analyzed using a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) tool, SAPHIRE (version 8) to obtain a joint pool damage frequency. For the progression of events leading to a top event, the failure of the intermediate safety elements is assumed to be external random events such as heavy load drop and fire events. The objectives of this study is to (1) determine the double accounting of frequency of failure, risk and allocated resources in the scenario of a non-random security initiating event leading to a safety random event chain (2) compare the damage frequency from pure security with the frequency of combined security-safety failure event and pure safety failure events. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2024

Considerations for Qualifying Reliable Eddy Current Array Technique for Detection of Backwall Cracks

A reliable nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technique provides minimum 90% probability of detection(POD) with 95% confidence for detection of cracklike flaws of a qualified size. In this case, the flaws are on backside of material. Eddy current array (ECA) probe or a single sensor eddy current probe in c-scanning mode is used for the flaw detection. Here, two geometries are considered for the test specimens. The two geometries are, a flat plate, and tube or pipe. The probe is assumed to be on outer diameter (OD)surface and the flaw is assumed to be at the inner diameter (ID) surface for tube inspection. The flaw and probe are on opposite side of wall thickness for inspection of plate material. The application may be used for acreage inspection or just for inspection of butt weld and heat affected zone (HAZ) in a tube, cylinder, or plate. The proposed approach is based on developing an instrument standardization or calibration procedure. Decision threshold of inspection procedure is determined using empirical qualification and noise data. The work explores essential parameters that are required to meet certain conditions to ensure reliable flaw detection. Physics-based simulation of eddy current array flaw detection is used to understand effect of essential parameters on signal response (amplitude and phase),and therefore flaw detectability. Simulation data is used to justify choice of calibration reference standard requirements and the qualification approach. An ECA technique qualification model is provided. The paper gives brief description of tasks to be completed for qualifying ECA technique for reliable detection of cracklike flaws.

Eddy current array inspection, nondestructive eval↗

DOE OSTI2014

Gravitational wave hotspots: Ranking potential locations of single-source gravitational wave emission

The steadily improving sensitivity of pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) suggests that gravitational waves (GWs) from supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) systems in the nearby universe will be detectable sometime during the next decade. Currently, PTAs assume an equal probability of detection from every sky position, but as evidence grows for a non-isotropic distribution of sources, is there a most likely sky position for a detectable single source of GWs? In this paper, a collection of Galactic catalogs is used to calculate various metrics related to the detectability of a single GW source resolvable above a GW background, assuming that every galaxy has the same probability of containing an SMBHB. Our analyses of these data reveal small probabilities that one of these sources is currently in the PTA band, but as sensitivity is improved regions of consistent probability density are found in predictable locations, specifically around local galaxy clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗