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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Balanced Branching in Transcription Termination

The theory of stochastic transcription termination based on free-energy competition requires two or more reaction rates to be delicately balanced over a wide range of physical conditions. A large body of work on glasses and large molecules suggests that this should be impossible in such a large system in the absence of a new organizing principle of matter. We review the experimental literature of termination and find no evidence for such a principle but many troubling inconsistencies, most notably anomalous memory effects. These suggest that termination has a deterministic component and may conceivably be not stochastic at all. We find that a key experiment by Wilson and von Hippel allegedly refuting deterministic termination was an incorrectly analyzed regulatory effect of Mg(2+) binding.

Harrington, K. J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Dynamic Stability of Uncertain Laminated Beams Under Subtangential Loads

Because of the inherent complexity of fiber-reinforced laminated composites, it can be challenging to manufacture composite structures according to their exact design specifications, resulting in unwanted material and geometric uncertainties. In this research, we focus on the deterministic and probabilistic stability analysis of laminated structures subject to subtangential loading, a combination of conservative and nonconservative tangential loads, using the dynamic criterion. Thus a shear-deformable laminated beam element, including warping effects, is derived to study the deterministic and probabilistic response of laminated beams. This twenty-one degrees of freedom element can be used for solving both static and dynamic problems. In the first-order shear deformable model used here we have employed a more accurate method to obtain the transverse shear correction factor. The dynamic version of the principle of virtual work for laminated composites is expressed in its nondimensional form and the element tangent stiffness and mass matrices are obtained using analytical integration The stability is studied by giving the structure a small disturbance about an equilibrium configuration, and observing if the resulting response remains small. In order to study the dynamic behavior by including uncertainties into the problem, three models were developed: Exact Monte Carlo Simulation, Sensitivity Based Monte Carlo Simulation, and Probabilistic FEA. These methods were integrated into the developed finite element analysis. Also, perturbation and sensitivity analysis have been used to study nonconservative problems, as well as to study the stability analysis, using the dynamic criterion.

Goyal, Vijay K.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Risk-Based Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decision makers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine. In this work, an alternative approach based on the probabilistic method was described for a comprehensive assessment of an aeropropulsion system. The statistical approach quantifies the design uncertainties inherent in a new aeropropulsion system and their influences on engine performance. Because of this, it enhances the reliability of a system assessment. A technical assessment of a wave-rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine was performed to demonstrate the methodology. The assessment used probability distributions to account for the uncertainties that occur in component efficiencies and flows and in mechanical design variables. The approach taken in this effort was to integrate the thermodynamic cycle analysis embedded in the computer code NEPP (NASA Engine Performance Program) and the engine weight analysis embedded in the computer code WATE (Weight Analysis of Turbine Engines) with the fast probability integration technique (FPI). FPI was developed by Southwest Research Institute under contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. The results were plotted in the form of cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity analyses and were compared with results from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison showed that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system. The current work addressed the application of the probabilistic approach to assess specific fuel consumption, engine thrust, and weight. Similarly, the approach can be used to assess other aspects of aeropropulsion system performance, such as cost, acoustic noise, and emissions. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Tong, Michael T.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic Design Methodology and its Application to the Design of an Umbilical Retract Mechanism

A lot has been learned from past experience with structural and machine element failures. The understanding of failure modes and the application of an appropriate design analysis method can lead to improved structural and machine element safety as well as serviceability. To apply Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM), all uncertainties are modeled as random variables with selected distribution types, means, and standard deviations. It is quite difficult to achieve a robust design without considering the randomness of the design parameters which is the case in the use of the Deterministic Design Approach. The US Navy has a fleet of submarine-launched ballistic missiles. An umbilical plug joins the missile to the submarine in order to provide electrical and cooling water connections. As the missile leaves the submarine, an umbilical retract mechanism retracts the umbilical plug clear of the advancing missile after disengagement during launch and retrains the plug in the retracted position. The design of the current retract mechanism in use was based on the deterministic approach which puts emphasis on factor of safety. A new umbilical retract mechanism that is simpler in design, lighter in weight, more reliable, easier to adjust, and more cost effective has become desirable since this will increase the performance and efficiency of the system. This paper reports on a recent project performed at Tennessee State University for the US Navy that involved the application of PDM to the design of an umbilical retract mechanism. This paper demonstrates how the use of PDM lead to the minimization of weight and cost, and the maximization of reliability and performance.

Onyebueke, Landon↗
NASA NTRS2003

Advanced Information Technology in Simulation Based Life Cycle Design

In this research a Collaborative Optimization (CO) approach for multidisciplinary systems design is used to develop a decision based design framework for non-deterministic optimization. To date CO strategies have been developed for use in application to deterministic systems design problems. In this research the decision based design (DBD) framework proposed by Hazelrigg is modified for use in a collaborative optimization framework. The Hazelrigg framework as originally proposed provides a single level optimization strategy that combines engineering decisions with business decisions in a single level optimization. By transforming this framework for use in collaborative optimization one can decompose the business and engineering decision making processes. In the new multilevel framework of Decision Based Collaborative Optimization (DBCO) the business decisions are made at the system level. These business decisions result in a set of engineering performance targets that disciplinary engineering design teams seek to satisfy as part of subspace optimizations. The Decision Based Collaborative Optimization framework more accurately models the existing relationship between business and engineering in multidisciplinary systems design.

Renaud, John E.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Masked Proportional Routing

Distributed approach for determining a path connecting adjacent network nodes, for probabilistically or deterministically transporting an entity, with entity characteristic mu from a source node to a destination node. Each node i is directly connected to an arbitrary number J(mu) of nodes, labeled or numbered j=jl, j2, .... jJ(mu). In a deterministic version, a J(mu)-component baseline proportion vector p(i;mu) is associated with node i. A J(mu)-component applied proportion vector p*(i;mu) is determined from p(i;mu) to preclude an entity visiting a node more than once. Third and fourth J(mu)-component vectors, with components iteratively determined by Target(i;n(mu);mu),=alpha(mu).Target(i;n(mu)-1;mu)j+beta(mu).p* (i;mu)j and Actual(i;n(mu);+a(mu)j. Actual(i;n(mu)-l;mu)j+beta(mu).Sent(i;j'(mu);n(mu)-1;mu)j, are computed, where n(mu) is an entity sequence index and alpha(mu) and beta(mu) are selected numbers. In one embodiment, at each node i, the node j=j'(mu) with the largest vector component difference, Target(i;n(mu);mu)j'- Actual (i;n(mu);mu)j'. is chosen for the next link for entity transport, except in special gap circumstances, where the same link is optionally used for transporting consecutively arriving entities. The network nodes may be computer-controlled routers that switch collections of packets, frames, cells or other information units. Alternatively, the nodes may be waypoints for movement of physical items in a network or for transformation of a physical item. The nodes may be states of an entity undergoing state transitions, where allowed transitions are specified by the network and/or the destination node.

David H Wolpert↗
NASA NTRS1997

Detection of chaotic determinism in time series from randomly forced maps

Time series from biological system often display fluctuations in the measured variables. Much effort has been directed at determining whether this variability reflects deterministic chaos, or whether it is merely "noise". Despite this effort, it has been difficult to establish the presence of chaos in time series from biological sytems. The output from a biological system is probably the result of both its internal dynamics, and the input to the system from the surroundings. This implies that the system should be viewed as a mixed system with both stochastic and deterministic components. We present a method that appears to be useful in deciding whether determinism is present in a time series, and if this determinism has chaotic attributes, i.e., a positive characteristic exponent that leads to sensitivity to initial conditions. The method relies on fitting a nonlinear autoregressive model to the time series followed by an estimation of the characteristic exponents of the model over the observed probability distribution of states for the system. The method is tested by computer simulations, and applied to heart rate variability data.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2000

Dose limits for astronauts

Radiation exposures to individuals in space can greatly exceed natural radiation exposure on Earth and possibly normal occupational radiation exposures as well. Consequently, procedures limiting exposures would be necessary. Limitations were proposed by the Radiobiological Advisory Panel of the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council in 1970. This panel recommended short-term limits to avoid deterministic effects and a single career limit (of 4 Sv) based on a doubling of the cancer risk in men aged 35 to 55. Later, when risk estimates for cancer had increased and were recognized to be age and sex dependent, the NCRP, in Report No. 98 in 1989, recommended a range of career limits based on age and sex from 1 to 4 Sv. NCRP is again in the process of revising recommendations for astronaut exposure, partly because risk estimates have increased further and partly to recognize trends in limiting radiation exposure occupationally on the ground. The result of these considerations is likely to be similar short-term limits for deterministic effects but modified career limits.

Review↗
NASA NTRS1997

Detection of "noisy" chaos in a time series

Time series from biological system often displays fluctuations in the measured variables. Much effort has been directed at determining whether this variability reflects deterministic chaos, or whether it is merely "noise". The output from most biological systems is probably the result of both the internal dynamics of the systems, and the input to the system from the surroundings. This implies that the system should be viewed as a mixed system with both stochastic and deterministic components. We present a method that appears to be useful in deciding whether determinism is present in a time series, and if this determinism has chaotic attributes. The method relies on fitting a nonlinear autoregressive model to the time series followed by an estimation of the characteristic exponents of the model over the observed probability distribution of states for the system. The method is tested by computer simulations, and applied to heart rate variability data.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1999

Multidisciplinary Probabilistic Heat Transfer/Structural Analysis Code Developed: NESTEM

High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) engine combustor liners are subjected to complex thermal environments and have to endure these for thousands of hours with assured reliability. In the past, several deterministic analyses have been performed, including detailed heat transfer analyses to obtain thermal profiles and deterministic stress analyses to identify critical locations of high stresses. Actual rig tests also have been performed for segments by simulating these loading situations as closely as possible. However, it is well known that many uncertainties exist in loading (primarily thermal loads due to heat transfer), boundary conditions (end fixity unknowns), and material properties (moduli, thermal-expansion coefficients, and conductivities). The present in-house effort at the NASA Lewis Research Center is directed toward accounting for these in a formal way to assess the performance of liner components under complex and uncertain loading conditions as well as subject to other geometry- and material-related uncertainties.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Probabilistic Residual Strength Model Developed for Life Prediction of Ceramic Matrix Composites

For the next generation of reusable launch vehicles, NASA is investigating introducing ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in place of current superalloys for structural propulsion applications (e.g., nozzles, vanes, combustors, and heat exchangers). The higher use temperatures of CMCs will reduce vehicle weight by eliminating and/or reducing cooling system requirements. The increased strength-to-weight ratio of CMCs relative to superalloys further enhances their weight savings potential. However, in order to provide safe designs for components made of these new materials, a comprehensive life prediction methodology for CMC structures needs to be developed. A robust methodology for lifing composite structures has yet to be adopted by the engineering community. Current industry design practice continues to utilize deterministic empirically based models borrowed from metals design for predicting material life capabilities. The deterministic nature of these models inadequately addresses the stochastic character of brittle composites, and their empirical reliance makes predictions beyond the experimental test conditions a risky extrapolation. A team of engineers at the NASA Glenn Research Center has been developing a new life prediction engineering model. The Probabilistic Residual Strength (PRS) model uses the residual strength of the composite as its damage metric. Expected life and material strength are both considered probabilistically to account for the observed stochastic material response. Extensive experimental testing has been carried out on C/SiC (a candidate aerospace CMC material system) in a controlled 1000 ppm O2/argon environment at elevated temperatures of 800 and 1200 C. The test matrix was established to allow observation of the material behavior, characterization of the model, and validation of the model's predictive capabilities. Sample results of the validation study are illustrated in the graphs.

Thomas, David J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Probabilistic Analysis Techniques Applied to Complex Spacecraft Power System Modeling

Electric power system performance predictions are critical to spacecraft, such as the International Space Station (ISS), to ensure that sufficient power is available to support all the spacecraft s power needs. In the case of the ISS power system, analyses to date have been deterministic, meaning that each analysis produces a single-valued result for power capability because of the complexity and large size of the model. As a result, the deterministic ISS analyses did not account for the sensitivity of the power capability to uncertainties in model input variables. Over the last 10 years, the NASA Glenn Research Center has developed advanced, computationally fast, probabilistic analysis techniques and successfully applied them to large (thousands of nodes) complex structural analysis models. These same techniques were recently applied to large, complex ISS power system models. This new application enables probabilistic power analyses that account for input uncertainties and produce results that include variations caused by these uncertainties. Specifically, N&R Engineering, under contract to NASA, integrated these advanced probabilistic techniques with Glenn s internationally recognized ISS power system model, System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE).

Hojnicki, Jeffrey S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Robust Scalable Transportation System Concept

This report documents the 2005 Revolutionary System Concept for Aeronautics (RSCA) study entitled "A Robust, Scalable Transportation System Concept". The objective of the study was to generate, at a high-level of abstraction, characteristics of a new concept for the National Airspace System, or the new NAS, under which transportation goals such as increased throughput, delay reduction, and improved robustness could be realized. Since such an objective can be overwhelmingly complex if pursued at the lowest levels of detail, instead a System-of-Systems (SoS) approach was adopted to model alternative air transportation architectures at a high level. The SoS approach allows the consideration of not only the technical aspects of the NAS", but also incorporates policy, socio-economic, and alternative transportation system considerations into one architecture. While the representations of the individual systems are basic, the higher level approach allows for ways to optimize the SoS at the network level, determining the best topology (i.e. configuration of nodes and links). The final product (concept) is a set of rules of behavior and network structure that not only satisfies national transportation goals, but represents the high impact rules that accomplish those goals by getting the agents to "do the right thing" naturally. The novel combination of Agent Based Modeling and Network Theory provides the core analysis methodology in the System-of-Systems approach. Our method of approach is non-deterministic which means, fundamentally, it asks and answers different questions than deterministic models. The nondeterministic method is necessary primarily due to our marriage of human systems with technological ones in a partially unknown set of future worlds. Our goal is to understand and simulate how the SoS, human and technological components combined, evolve.

Hahn, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2004

Stochastic Stability of Sampled Data Systems with a Jump Linear Controller

In this paper an equivalence between the stochastic stability of a sampled-data system and its associated discrete-time representation is established. The sampled-data system consists of a deterministic, linear, time-invariant, continuous-time plant and a stochastic, linear, time-invariant, discrete-time, jump linear controller. The jump linear controller models computer systems and communication networks that are subject to stochastic upsets or disruptions. This sampled-data model has been used in the analysis and design of fault-tolerant systems and computer-control systems with random communication delays without taking into account the inter-sample response. This paper shows that the known equivalence between the stability of a deterministic sampled-data system and the associated discrete-time representation holds even in a stochastic framework.

Gonzalez, Oscar R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Stochastic Stability of Nonlinear Sampled Data Systems with a Jump Linear Controller

This paper analyzes the stability of a sampled- data system consisting of a deterministic, nonlinear, time- invariant, continuous-time plant and a stochastic, discrete- time, jump linear controller. The jump linear controller mod- els, for example, computer systems and communication net- works that are subject to stochastic upsets or disruptions. This sampled-data model has been used in the analysis and design of fault-tolerant systems and computer-control systems with random communication delays without taking into account the inter-sample response. To analyze stability, appropriate topologies are introduced for the signal spaces of the sampled- data system. With these topologies, the ideal sampling and zero-order-hold operators are shown to be measurable maps. This paper shows that the known equivalence between the stability of a deterministic, linear sampled-data system and its associated discrete-time representation as well as between a nonlinear sampled-data system and a linearized representation holds even in a stochastic framework.

Gonzalez, Oscar R.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Stress Rupture Life Reliability Measures for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are often used for storing pressurant gases onboard spacecraft. Kevlar (DuPont), glass, carbon and other more recent fibers have all been used as overwraps. Due to the fact that overwraps are subjected to sustained loads for an extended period during a mission, stress rupture failure is a major concern. It is therefore important to ascertain the reliability of these vessels by analysis, since the testing of each flight design cannot be completed on a practical time scale. The present paper examines specifically a Weibull statistics based stress rupture model and considers the various uncertainties associated with the model parameters. The paper also examines several reliability estimate measures that would be of use for the purpose of recertification and for qualifying flight worthiness of these vessels. Specifically, deterministic values for a point estimate, mean estimate and 90/95 percent confidence estimates of the reliability are all examined for a typical flight quality vessel under constant stress. The mean and the 90/95 percent confidence estimates are computed using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques by assuming distribution statistics of model parameters based also on simulation and on the available data, especially the sample sizes represented in the data. The data for the stress rupture model are obtained from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) stress rupture testing program, carried out for the past 35 years. Deterministic as well as probabilistic sensitivities are examined.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Rosetta Navigation at its Mars Swing-By

This paper reports on the navigation activities during Rosetta s Mars swing-by. It covers the Mars approach phase starting after a deterministic deep-space maneuver in September 2006, the swing-by proper on 25 February 2007, and ends with another deterministic deep-space maneuver in April 2007 which was also foreseen to compensate any navigation error. Emphasis is put on the orbit determination and prediction set-up and the evolution of the targeting estimates in the B-plane and their adjustments by trajectory correction maneuvers.

Budnik, Frank↗
NASA NTRS2006

Considerations for Isochronous Data Services for the Proximity-1 Space Link

Isochronous means "having equal time difference". The term Isochronous describes a system where the time difference between arrival and departure of data is constant. However, one can also consider degrees of "isochronicity" by measuring the consistency in the latency of a system. Deterministic systems (such as TDMA) has higher degree of isochronous property because resource assignments are static. For system that dynamically shares resources, variations in latency can still be controlled. Proximity-1 is not a deterministic protocol in the sense that it does not designate specific time slots to the transmissions of data and control messages. However, is it still sufficiently isochronous for carrying real-time traffic?

real time↗