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281 records · Page 16

Dynamical Conditions of Ice Supersaturation and Ice Nucleation in Convective Systems: A Comparative Analysis Between in Situ Aircraft Observations and WRF Simulations

Occurrence frequency and dynamical conditions of ice supersaturation (ISS, where relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) greater than 100%) are examined in the upper troposphere around convective activity. Comparisons are conducted between in situ airborne observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations using four double-moment microphysical schemes at temperatures less than or or equal to -40degdegC. All four schemes capture both clear-sky and in-cloud ISS conditions. However, the clear-sky (in-cloud) ISS conditions are completely (significantly) limited to the RHi thresholds of the Cooper parameterization. In all of the simulations, ISS occurrence frequencies are higher by approximately 3-4 orders of magnitude at higher updraft speeds (greater than 1 m s(exp -1) than those at the lower updraft speeds when ice water content (IWC) greater than 0.01 gm(exp -3), while observations show smaller differences up to approximately 1-2 orders of magnitude. The simulated ISS also occurs less frequently at weaker updrafts and downdrafts than observed. These results indicate that the simulations have a greater dependence on stronger updrafts to maintain/generate ISS at higher IWC. At lower IWC (less than or equal or 0.01 gm(exp -3), simulations unexpectedly show lower ISS frequencies at stronger updrafts. Overall, the Thompson aerosol-aware scheme has the closest magnitudes and frequencies of ISS greater than 20% to the observations, and the modified Morrison has the closest correlations between ISS frequencies and vertical velocity at higher IWC and number density. The Cooper parameterization often generates excessive ice crystals and therefore suppresses the frequency and magnitude of ISS, indicating that it should be initiated at higher ISS (e.g.,lees than or equal to 25%).

D’Alessandro, John J.↗

Impact of a Cold Pool Parameterization on the Diurnal Cycle and Intraseasonal Variability in the GEOS AGCM

A gradual transition from shallow to deep convection may be important both to the continental diurnal cycle of precipitation and to the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, many existing convection parameterizations transition too readily, with corresponding diurnal and intraseasonal biases. High entrainment rates can be used to delay deep convection, but typically produce mean state biases; this is the "entrainment dilemma." Cold pools and sub-grid organization offer a potential solution to this dilemma, and recent work shows parameterized cold pools can effectively modulate deep convection, with improvements to the diurnal cycle and intraseasonal variability. Here we investigate the effects of a simple prognostic cold pool scheme coupled to the Grell-Freitas convection parameterization, in a set of global simulations with the NASA GEOS model. Air detrained from parameterized downdrafts is maintained in vertically resolved cold pools, which evolve with simplified dynamics. We test several options for cold pool feedbacks on convection, including modifications to deep convective entrainment rates, convective source air properties, and thermodynamic profiles, based on the level of cold pool activity. Cold pool impacts on the diurnal cycle are evaluated against TRMM, and moisture and moist static energy budgets are used to understand changes in tropical intraseasonal variability. Preliminary results show delays in the diurnal cycle of precipitation.

Arnold, Nathan↗

Including a Cold Pool Representation in a Convection Parameterization and Simulating Its Impacts on the Spatial and Temporal Variability of the Precipitation in the NASA GEOS GCM

We developed and implemented a simple representation of a cold pool in the Grell-Freitas (GF) convection parameterization. The cold pool parameterization is based on the observation that convective-scale downdrafts produce a local ‘deficit’ of the moist static energy (MSE). This information is advected and becoming downwind available to trigger and intensify new convection. The cold pool is dissipated by a simple exponential decay using a lifetime of a few hours, or by interacting with the underneath surface by exchanging latent and sensible heat fluxes. Preliminary results show some improvement of the simulation of the diurnal cycle of the precipitation over the land, mainly during the nighttime.

Cold pools↗

Tracking Aerosol Convective Interactions Experiment (TRACER) Science Plan

Convective clouds play an important role in the Earth's climate system as a driver of large-scale circulations and a primary mechanism for the transport of heat, moisture, aerosols, and momentum throughout the troposphere. Despite their climatic importance, multi-scale models continue to have persistent biases produced by insufficient representation of convective clouds. This is the result of an incomplete understanding of key processes such as convective initiation, updraft and downdraft dynamics, cloud and precipitation microphysics, and aerosol-convection interactions.The Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation-Climate Initiative, an international research group dedicated to advancing understanding of aerosol impacts on clouds relevant to climate, has identified the Houston, Texas region as an optimal location for targeted studies of aerosol-convection interactions within frequently developing isolated deep convection. Houston lies within a humid subtropical climate regime, where onshore flow and sea-breeze convection interact with a range of aerosol conditions associated with Houston's urban and industrial emissions. Pilot studies have suggested that convective clouds in this region are potentially significantly impacted by the varying aerosol conditions.

Jensen, M.↗

Influence of the Saharan Air Layer on Hurricane Nadine (2012). Part I: Observations from the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Investigation and Modeling Results

This study uses a model with aerosol–cloud–radiation coupling to examine the impact of Saharan dust and other aerosols on Hurricane Nadine (2012). To study aerosol direct (radiation) and indirect (cloud microphysics) effects from individual, as well as all aerosol species, eight different NU-WRF Model simulations were conducted. In several simulations, aerosols led to storm strengthening, followed by weakening relative to the control simulation. This variability of the aerosol impact may be related to whether aerosols are ingested into clouds within the outer rainbands or the eyewall. Upper-tropospheric aerosol concentrations indicate vertical transport of all aerosol types in the outer bands but only vertical transport of sea salt in the inner core. The results suggest that aerosols, particularly sea salt, may have contributed to a stronger initial intensification but that aerosol ingestion into the outer bands at later times may have weakened the storm in the longer term. In most aerosol experiments, aerosols led to a reduction in cloud and precipitation hydrometeors, the exception being the dust-only case that produced periods of enhanced hydrometeor growth. The Saharan air layer (SAL) also impacted Nadine by causing a region of strong easterlies impinging on the eastern side of the storm. At the leading edge of these easterlies, cool and dry air near the top of the SAL was being ingested into the outer-band convection. This midlevel low-equivalent-potential-temperature air gradually lowered toward the surface and eventually contributed to significant cold-pool activity in the eastern rainband and in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Such enhanced downdraft activity could have led to weakening of the storm, but it is not presently possible to quantify this impact.

Jainn J. Shi↗

Measurement report: Closure Analysis of Aerosol–cloud Composition in Tropical Maritime Warm Convection

Cloud droplet chemical composition is a key observable property that can aid understanding of how aerosols and clouds interact. As part of the Clouds, Aerosols and Monsoon Processes – Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex), three case studies were analyzed involving collocated airborne sampling of relevant clear and cloudy air masses associated with maritime warm convection. Two of the cases represented a polluted marine background, with signatures of transported East Asian regional pollution, aged over water for several days, while the third case comprised a major smoke transport event from Kalimantan fires. Sea salt was a dominant component of cloud droplet composition, in spite of fine particulate enhancement from regional anthropogenic sources. Furthermore, the proportion of sea salt was enhanced relative to sulfate in rainwater and may indicate both a propensity for sea salt to aid warm rain production and an increased collection efficiency of large sea salt particles by rain in subsaturated environments. Amongst cases, as precipitation became more significant, so too did the variability in the sea salt to (non-sea salt) sulfate ratio. Across cases, nitrate and ammonium were fractionally greater in cloud water than fine-mode aerosol particles; however, a strong covariability in cloud water nitrate and sea salt was suggestive of prior uptake of nitrate on large salt particles. A mass-based closure analysis of non-sea salt sulfate compared the cloud water air-equivalent mass concentration to the concentration of aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei for droplet activation. While sulfate found in cloud was generally constrained by the sub-cloud aerosol concentration, there was significant intra-cloud variability that was attributed to entrainment – causing evaporation of sulfate-containing droplets –and losses due to precipitation. In addition, precipitation tended to promote mesoscale variability in the sub-cloud aerosol through a combination of removal, convective downdrafts, and dynamically driven convergence. Physical mechanisms exerted such strong control over the cloud water compositional budget that it was not possible to isolate any signature of chemical production/loss using in-cloud observations. The cloud-free environment surrounding the non-precipitating smoke case indicated sulfate enhancement compared to convective mixing quantified by a stable gas tracer; however, this was not observed in the cloud water (either through use of ratios or the mass closure), perhaps implying that the warm convective cloud timescale was too short for chemical production to be a leading-order budgetary term and because precursors had already been predominantly exhausted. Closure of other species was truncated by incomplete characterization of coarse aerosol (e.g., it was found that only 10 %–50% of sea salt mass found in cloud was captured during clear-air sampling) and unmeasured gasphase abundances affecting closure of semi-volatile aerosol species (e.g., ammonium, nitrate and organic) and soluble volatile organic compound contributions to total organic carbon in cloud water.

Ewan Crosbie↗

Towards a Marine Stratus Climatology on Drizzle Occurrence from CALIPSO

Marine stratus are a predominant feature of our planet with the annual mean coverage exceeding 20%. They strongly reflect sunlight, yet exert only a modest effect on outgoing infrared radiation, providing a significant net cooling to the Earth’s radiative balance. Their formation is coupled to boundary layer circulations that are driven, in part, by cloud top radiative cooling and evaporative cooling from precipitation in downdrafts. Understanding how these cloud systems evolve as the climate changes is a key question that requires additional information on their lifecycle and microphysical properties to accurately represent their behavior in global circulation models. From a large-scale perspective, insight into the microphysical properties of marine stratus at cloud top can be realized through estimates of the effective radius (Re) of the droplet size distributions derived from MODIS observations. Estimates on the occurrence of rain/drizzle are available from CloudSat. Together these observations indicate that precipitation frequently occurs in clouds with higher cloud top Re. This relationship is consistent with the well documented shift in cloud top droplet size distributions towards fewer, yet larger droplets prior the onset of precipitation. Here we report on a new and complementary set observations from the CALIPSO mission. The approach derives an extinction-to-backscatter ratio (Sc, also known as the cloud lidar ratio) using an established relationship that depends on observations of the lidar attenuated backscatter and volume depolarization ratio within the cloud. Because Sc is strongly and inversely related to Re, a change in the derived Sc from higher to lower values corresponds to a change in the droplet size distribution as seen by MODIS. This change in the lidar signals at cloud top clearly identifies clouds that are capable of precipitation. The presentation provides a brief overview of the approach for deriving Sc and compares CALIOP-derived Sc with observations from other techniques. CALIOP classifications of drizzling clouds, based on the retrieved values Sc, are compared to independent, collocated assessments of drizzle occurrence reported in the standard CloudSat data products. Regional and seasonal comparisons highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the two sensors. A machine learning approach that combines information from both CALIOP and CloudSat showcases possible improvements in the global identification of scenes likely to contain rain-bearing clouds.

CALIPSO↗

Meteorology Modulates the Impact of GCM Horizontal Resolution on Underestimation of Midlatitude Ocean Wind Speeds

We utilize ocean 10-m wind speed (U 10m ) from the microwave Multi-sensor Advanced Climatology data set to examine the coupling between convective cloud and precipitation processes, synoptic state, and U 10m and to evaluate the representation of U 10m in global climate models (GCMs). We find that midlatitude U 10m is underestimated by GCMs relative to observations. We examine two potential mechanisms to explain this model behavior: cold pool formation in cold air outbreaks (CAOs) associated with downdrafts that enhance U 10m and sea surface temperature (SST) gradients affecting U 10m through thermally forced surface winds at regional scales. When the effects of the CAO index (M) and SST gradients on U 10m are accounted for, a relationship between GCM horizontal resolution and U 10m appears. The strongest correlation between resolution and U 10m is over the western boundary currents characterized by frequent CAOs atop strong SST gradients which drives the strongest surface fluxes on Earth.

surface wind speed↗

Quantifying Turbine-Level Risk to Golden Eagles Using a High-Fidelity Updraft Model and a Stochastic Behavioral Model

To minimize the effects of wind farms on Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) populations while enabling sustainable development of renewable energy resources, it is important to understand how eagles interact with atmospheric flows, terrain features, and anthropogenic structures. Models that predict migratory flight paths provide one tool that helps us grasp how the location of wind farms may influence interactions and impacts on migrating Golden Eagles. The current state-of-the-art in predicting migratory flight paths uses a deterministic fluid-flow analogy to predict eagle trajectory using only an orographic updraft potential computed from topographical features. This model does not take into account variables, such as thermal updrafts and time varying atmospheric conditions that are known to influence migratory behavior. In this work, we improve on the model with the objective of developing tools that advance our understanding of how atmospheric flows and terrain features affect migratory eagle behavior and their interactions with wind farms. Specifically, we 1) incorporate both orographic and thermal updraft information in simulating eagle flight paths; 2) incorporate stochasticity into eagle travel patterns to better capture the influence of exogenous factors on, and the inherent stochasticity of eagle behavior; 3) consider spatio-temporal atmospheric data at wind-farm-scale when computing updraft potential; and 4) account for how atmospheric conditions and the direction of migration change seasonally and how these changes affect eagle migratory flight behavior. We tested the model using a 50km by 50km region with 50 m resolution in the western United States. We simulated 900 independent, probabilistic eagle tracks during southerly and northerly migration, assuming eagles solely rely on orographic updrafts. The preliminary results indicate that the inclusion of finer resolution atmospheric data allows for the inclusion of realistic conditions that an eagle experiences. The stochasticity in eagle tracks provides a platform to include uncertainty in eagle decision making and help produce robust eagle presence maps. We will deploy updraft and downdraft velocities computed using a high-fidelity, wind farm scale, computational fluid dynamics solver under development at National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This work is a first step in the development of a predictive and generalizable eagle behavior model at the wind farm scale that does not rely on empirical data collection. Although the current model is intended for migratory eagles, we will extend and refine this model to inform the development of additional behavioral modes, including resident eagle behavior. This modeling approach improves our ability to understand eagle use of the landscape at a fine scale, and it is our hope that this work will ultimately help advance strategies that minimize the impact of wind development on Golden Eagle populations.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

An Overview of Mesoscale Convective Systems: Global Climatology, Satellite Observations, and Modeling Strategies

Deep convection is responsible for redistributing water as well as energy and providing vital water resources for many regions of the world. Cumulonimbus clouds aggregation into a single storm system develop mesoscale convective systems (MCS). MCSs have precipitation covering a horizontal region on the scale of 100?km or more. After more than the last seven decades, MCS has been gradually received wide attention in the scientific community as an important component of the Earth's hydrologic cycle and energy balance. MCSs differ from ordinary deep convection because of the mesoscale circulations consisting of a layer of air overturning on a scale much larger than those created by individual convective updrafts or downdrafts. Moreover, a key feature that separates MCS from ordinary deep convection is the significant portion of stratiform precipitation that results in the production and detrainment of a large number of ice particles from their organized convective cores and continues the mesoscale ascent that supports ice growth and aggregation as the crystals fall. This significant stratiform precipitation gives rise to top-heavy latent heating profiles that have substantial impacts on the upper-level global circulations, especially for those MCS that have a larger portion of stratiform rainfall. Top-heavy latent heating profiles are more frequent over the ocean than over the land. These unique features of MCS suggest that they are important for the hydrologic cycle, general circulation, and radiative balance of the climate system. In this chapter, we focus on the recent advances in the climatological perspective of MCS as well as the research tools used to better understand MCS after the advent of the satellite era. We will discuss both tropical and midlatitude MCS, the influence of modes of tropical climate variability on MCS, and the new insight from satellite observations on MCS interaction with the land surface.

Chakraborty, Sudip↗

Chapter 4: "Waste"-to-Energy for Decarbonization - Transforming Nut Shells Into Carbon-Negative Electricity

This chapter presents a study demonstrating waste pistachio nut shells as a renewable feedstock for climate-friendly electricity generation via industrial gasification technology. The study includes biomass feedstock characterization (i.e., pistachio waste critical material attributes), process variability (i.e., bulk material handling), and overall operational reliability and conversion performance through extended testing. Additionally, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were performed to assess the economic feasibility and environmental impact of the technology to transform agricultural waste to biopower. For processing pistachio waste material, among critical material attributes, fines content in the biomass (<1/4") had the largest potential to reduce the operating time of the gasifiers due to plugging. Pelletizing fines and co-feeding them with the mixed pistachio waste increased the average feed density, feed rate, and biochar production. Compared to pine wood chips, mixed pistachio waste yielded higher biochar quantity but slightly reduced quality. In general, a systematic Quality by Design methodology is the preferred approach for designing preprocessing and material conveyance systems, where a downstream technology (end user) for the produced intermediate is specified at the outset. TEA results show that the biochar production rate and selling price had an overwhelming impact on the modeled Minimum Electricity Selling Price (MESP), which ranged from 35.5 to 39.9 cents/kWh for the cases studied (16 h/day operational basis). Moreover, LCA results show that the valorization of pistachio shells for biopower generation is a "carbon negative" process that can help decarbonize the U.S. electricity grid. The specific carbon intensity was -0.29 to -0.71 kg CO2e/kWh, compared to 0.45 kg CO2e/kWh for the average U.S. electricity mix. Biochar production from pistachio waste as a potential means for carbon sequestration was a significant driver for the LCA. The highly stable biochar permanently sequesters a considerable fraction of biochar carbon in the ground, more than enough to offset the life cycle emissions, and can be a complementary climate change mitigation strategy.

bio-char↗