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DOE OSTI2025

Automated Hybrid Variance Reduction on Advanced Architectures in the Shift Monte Carlo Code

Monte Carlo transport methods are the most accurate schemes for solving problems with complex energy and spatial features, but they come with a high computational cost. Although hybrid methods have enabled the use of Monte Carlo transport for a large class of problems, they still require significant computing resources. Modern multicore CPUs with large numbers of compute cores and graphical processing units (GPUs) provide opportunities to optimize the memory and run-time costs of hybrid Monte Carlo methods. This paper documents the development and analysis of three Monte Carlo transport algorithms that support hybrid transport using the consistent adjoint-driven importance sampling (CADIS) and forward-weighted CADIS methods in the Shift Monte Carlo code: history-based transport using static and dynamic threading on multicore CPUs and event-based transport enabling weight window tracking on GPUs. The results are shown for two challenging hybrid problems on the Frontier supercomputer at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. The results show that all three methods yield good performance and enable solutions of difficult fixed-source transport problems in less than 2 min on 20 nodes of Frontier. Dynamic threading was observed to give up to 20% better scaling behavior than static threading. Moreover, the AMD Instinct 250X GPU was found to give 9 to 11 times greater throughput per graphics compute die than the best CPU performance. In conclusion, additional opportunities for optimization of hybrid transport on GPUs are discussed.

Denovo↗

DOE OSTI2025

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probing pH-Dependent Dehydration Dynamics of Mg and Ca Cations in Aqueous Solutions with Multi-Level Quantum Mechanics/Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The dehydration of aqueous calcium and magnesium cations is the most fundamental process controlling their reactivity in chemical and biological phenomena, such as the formation of ionic solids or passing through ion channels. It holds particular relevance in light of recent advancements in the development of carbon capture techniques that rely on mineralization for long-term carbon storage. Specifically, dehydration of Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ is a key step in proposed carbon capture processes aiming to exploit the relatively high concentration of dissolved carbon dioxide in seawater via the formation of carbonate minerals from solvated Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ cations for sequestration and storage. Nevertheless, atomic-scale understanding of the dehydration of aqueous Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ cations remains limited. Here, we utilize rare event sampling via density functional theory molecular dynamics and embedded wavefunction theory calculations to elucidate the dehydration dynamics of aqueous Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ . Emphasis is placed on the investigation of the effect pH has on the stability of the different coordination environments. Here, our results reveal significant differences in the dehydration dynamics of the two cations and provide insight into how they may be modulated by pH changes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Instabilities of the normal state in current-biased narrow superconducting strips

We study the current-voltage characteristic of narrow superconducting strips in the gapless regime near the critical temperature in the framework of the Ginzburg-Landau model. Our focus is on its instabilities occurring at high current biases. The latter are consequences of dynamical states with periodic phase-slip events in space and time. We analyze their structure and derive the value of the reentrance current at the onset of the instability of the normal state. It is expressed in terms of the kinetic coefficient of the time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau equation and calculated numerically.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decoding Resilience by Modeling Outage and Restoration Processes in Distribution Grids: A Pittsburgh Case Study

Climate-induced extreme weather events, such as floods and heatwaves, pose significant challenges to the resilience of urban power distribution grids. This paper examines the outage and restoration dynamics of Pittsburgh's power grid during the flood event in April 2024 and three heatwaves in June, July, and August 2024. We introduce a comprehensive modeling framework that integrates outage and restoration processes, enabling the quantification of resilience metrics, including total customer-hours of power outage, maximum residual values, and restoration durations across various ZIP codes. Our analysis highlights spatial disparities in outage impacts and restoration efficiencies, with ZIP Code 15222 experiencing the highest cumulative disruptions, while ZIP Code 15217 shows lower susceptibility. By linking statistical trends with weather events, this study underscores the critical need for targeted infrastructure upgrades and advanced restoration strategies. Furthermore, the proposed framework offers valuable insights for planning and managing resilient power systems in the face of increasing climate stress.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Rare Event Sampling Improves Mercury Instability Statistics

Due to the chaotic nature of planetary dynamics, there is a non-zero probability that Mercury's orbit will become unstable in the future. Previous efforts have estimated the probability of this happening between 3 and 5 billion years in the future using a large number of direct numerical simulations with an N-body code, but were not able to obtain accurate estimates before 3 billion years in the future because Mercury instability events are too rare. In this paper we use a new rare-event sampling technique, Quantile Diffusion Monte Carlo (QDMC), to estimate that the probability of a Mercury instability event in the next 2 billion years is approximately 10 –4 in the REBOUND N-body code. We show that QDMC provides unbiased probability estimates at a computational cost of up to 100 times less than direct numerical simulation. QDMC is easy to implement and could be applied to many problems in planetary dynamics in which it is necessary to estimate the probability of a rare event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Data-Driven Democratized Control Architecture for Regional Transmission Operators

As probably the most complicated and critical infrastructure system, U.S. power grids become increasingly vulnerable to extreme events such as cyber-attacks and severe weather, as well as higher DER penetrations and growing information mismatch among system operators, utilities (transmission or generation owners), and end-users. This paper proposes a data-driven democratized control architecture considering two democratization pathways to assist transmission system operators, with a targeted use case of developing online proactive islanding strategies. Detailed discussions on load capability profiling at transmission buses and disaggregation of DER generations are provided and illustrated with real-world utility data. By Combining network and operational constraints, transmission system operators can be equipped with new tools built on top of this architecture, to derive accurate, proactive, and strategic islanding decisions to incorporate the wide range of dynamic portfolios and needs when facing extreme events or unseen grid contingencies.

Power System Reliability, Islanding, Democratized ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Driving and characterizing nucleation of urea and glycine polymorphs in water

Crystal nucleation is relevant across the domains of fundamental and applied sciences. However, in many cases, its mechanism remains unclear due to a lack of temporal or spatial resolution. To gain insights into the molecular details of nucleation, some form of molecular dynamics simulations is typically performed; these simulations, in turn, are limited by their ability to run long enough to sample the nucleation event thoroughly. To overcome the timescale limits in typical molecular dynamics simulations in a manner free of prior human bias, here, we employ the machine learning-augmented molecular dynamics framework “reweighted autoencoded variational Bayes for enhanced sampling (RAVE).” We study two molecular systems—urea and glycine—in explicit all-atom water, due to their enrichment in polymorphic structures and common utility in commercial applications. From our simulations, we observe multiple back-and-forth nucleation events of different polymorphs from homogeneous solution; from these trajectories, we calculate the relative ranking of finite-sized polymorph crystals embedded in solution, in terms of the free-energy difference between the finite-sized crystal polymorph and the original solution state. We further observe that the obtained reaction coordinates and transitions are highly nonclassical.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurements of multijet event isotropies using optimal transport with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of novel event shapes quantifying the isotropy of collider events is performed in 140 fb -1 of proton-proton collisions with $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV centre-of-mass energy recorded with the ATLAS detector at CERN’s Large Hadron Collider. These event shapes are defined as the Wasserstein distance between collider events and isotropic reference geometries. This distance is evaluated by solving optimal transport problems, using the ‘Energy-Mover’s Distance’. Isotropic references with cylindrical and circular symmetries are studied, to probe the symmetries of interest at hadron colliders. The novel event-shape observables defined in this way are infrared- and collinear-safe, have improved dynamic range and have greater sensitivity to isotropic radiation patterns than other event shapes. The measured event-shape variables are corrected for detector effects, and presented in inclusive bins of jet multiplicity and the scalar sum of the two leading jets’ transverse momenta. The measured distributions are provided as inputs to future Monte Carlo tuning campaigns and other studies probing fundamental properties of QCD and the production of hadronic final states up to the TeV-scale.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Arctic Coastal Erosion: Modeling and Experimentation

Increasing Arctic coastal erosion rates have put critical infrastructure and native communities at risk while also mobilizing ancient organic carbon into modern carbon cycles. Although the Arctic comprises one-third of the global coastline and has some of the fastest eroding coasts, current tools for quantifying permafrost erosion are unable to explain the episodic, storm-driven erosion events. Our approach, mechanistically coupling oceanographic predictions with a terrestrial model to capture the thermo-mechanical dynamics of erosion, enables this much needed treatment of transient erosion events. The Arctic Coastal Erosion Model consists of oceanographic and atmospheric boundary conditions that force a coastal terrestrial permafrost environment in Albany (a multi-physics based finite element model). An oceanographic modeling suite (consisting of WAVEWATCH III, Delft3D-FLOW, and Delft3D-WAVE) produced time-dependent surge and run-up boundary conditions for the terrestrial model. In the terrestrial model, a coupling framework unites the mechanical and thermal aspects of erosion. 3D stress/strain fields develop in response to a plasticity model of the permafrost that is controlled by the frozen water content determined by modeling 3D heat conduction and solid-liquid phase change. This modeling approach enables failure from any allowable deformation (block failure, slumping, etc.). Extensive experimental work has underpinned the ACE Model development including field campaigns to measure in situ ocean and erosion processes, strength properties derived from thermally driven geomechanical experiments, as well as extensive physical composition and geochemical analyses. Combined, this work offers the most comprehensive and physically grounded treatment of Arctic coastal erosion available in the literature. The ACE model and experimental results can be used to inform scientific understanding of coastal erosion processes, contribute to estimates of geochemical and sediment land-to-ocean fluxes, and facilitate infrastructure susceptibility assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Metal–bicarbonate ion pairing in alkaline aqueous solutions from multilevel embedded correlated wavefunction theory and molecular dynamics

In this work, we examine ion-pairing mechanisms of bicarbonates in alkaline aqueous solutions with the divalent metal ions most abundantly present in seawater, namely, Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ . We employ a rare-event enhanced sampling approach within first-principles molecular dynamics to explore regions of phase space spanning solvent-shared to contact ion pairs. Second-order Møller–Plesset perturbation theory (MP2) corrections are subsequently applied in an embedding framework (EMB) to refine the electronic structure of stationary states and associated reaction barriers along the free-energy profiles while retaining the extended solvent effects at the density functional theory (DFT) level. Ca 2+ –HCO 3 − was previously hypothesized to exist in a solvent-shared ion pair (SSHIP) by DFT studies with an endergonic contact ion pair (CIP) formation; however, our EMB-MP2 refinement of the DFT ion-pairing pathways reveals that Ca 2+ and HCO 3 − form a virtually barrier-free CIP in alkaline solutions, with even more energetic ease than the widely studied Ca–CO 3 ion pair. We find qualitative agreement between DFT and EMB-MP2 for Mg 2+ —unlike Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ refuses to shed its strong hydration shell, thereby preferring a SSHIP state with a significant activation barrier to crossover to the CIP forms—a trait reminiscent of ion pairing in Mg–CO 3 and closely related to the kinetic limitations underlying the famous subject of the dolomite problem. Our study highlights the importance of improved electronic structure descriptions of liquids, modeled as a condensed phase of matter lacking in long-range crystalline order. It also strongly suggests that Ca 2+ –HCO 3 − CIPs are likely precursors involved in prenucleation of CaCO 3 mineral formation in seawater.

Sharma, Vidushi [Princeton Plasma Physics Laborato↗

DOE OSTI2022

Practical guide to replica exchange transition interface sampling and forward flux sampling

Path sampling approaches have become invaluable tools to explore the mechanisms and dynamics of the so-called rare events that are characterized by transitions between metastable states separated by sizable free energy barriers. Their practical application, in particular to ever more complex molecular systems, is, however, not entirely trivial. Here, focusing on replica exchange transition interface sampling (RETIS) and forward flux sampling (FFS), we discuss a range of analysis tools that can be used to assess the quality and convergence of such simulations, which is crucial to obtain reliable results. The basic ideas of a step-wise evaluation are exemplified for the study of nucleation in several systems with different complexities, providing a general guide for the critical assessment of RETIS and FFS simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Anharmonic Cation–Anion Coupling Dynamics Assisted Lithium‐Ion Diffusion in Sulfide Solid Electrolytes

Abstract Sulfide‐based lithium superionic conductors often show higher Li‐ion conductivity than other types of electrolyte materials. This work unveils a unique Li‐ion conductive behavior in these materials through the perspective of anharmonic coupling assisted Li‐ion diffusion. Li hopping events can happen simultaneously with various types of lattice dynamics, while only a statistically important synchronization of motions may indicate coupling. This method enables a direct evaluation of the coupling strength between these motions, which more fundamentally decides if a specific type of lattice motion is really anharmonically coupled to the Li hopping event and whether the coupling can facilitate the Li diffusion. By a new ab initio computational approach, this work unveils a unique phenomenon in prototype sulfide electrolytes in comparison with typical halide ones, that Li‐ion conduction can be boosted by the anharmonic coupling of low‐frequency Li phonon modes with high‐frequency anion stretching or flexing phonon modes, rather than the low‐frequency rotational modes. The coupling pushes Li ions toward the diffusion channels for reduced diffusion barriers. The result from the lower temperature range (≈0–300 K) of simulation can also be more relevant to the application of solid‐state batteries.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2022

How Can Construction Process Simulation Modeling Aid the Integration of Lean Principles in the Factory-Built Housing Industry?

New and existing factories that produce and deliver factory-built housing can benefit from construction process simulation modeling to explore the integration of Lean principles in their operations. Construction process simulation modeling provides digital or virtual recreations of the real-world factory environments to visualize, quantify, analyze, and optimize their underlying behavior, including factory productivity, material flow, labor dynamics, bottlenecks, and work scope. One of the key benefits of process simulation modeling is the ability to create and compare "what-if" scenarios, including integrating Lean principles such as reducing waste (for example, transportation, waiting), line balancing, and just-in-time concepts. In general, three process simulation methods are widely used: discrete event simulation (DES), agentbased modeling (ABM), and system dynamics (SD). Myriad process simulation software also is available, but depending on the industry, complexity of the system, and purposes of the simulation, some software might be more appropriate. Similar to how computer-aided design (CAD) software such as AutoCAD and Rhinoceros enable building design of modular or factory-built housing, process simulation modeling software such as jStrobe, ProModel, and AnyLogic can enable factory design of new and existing factories to deliver modular affordable housing at scale, as opposed to traditional site-built construction. Software with DES capabilities can help generate a process model that is a logical representation of resources and activities in a factory. Software with CAD-DES integration can leverage product-process data integration to help spatially visualize a DES model of the factory in the CAD environment. Software with multimethod simulation capabilities, widely used in the manufacturing industry, brings together DES, ABM, and SD in a single platform that allows visualization, quantification, analyses, and optimization at varying data fidelities. Near-real-time data from an existing factory can be directly plugged into multimethod simulation software so that the construction process simulation model is a near-accurate representation of the real-world factory conditions. This report provides insights into the use of simulation as an aid to integrate Lean concepts in factories, including guidelines for selecting the appropriate process simulation modeling method and software. These insights have been developed as part of ongoing process simulation modeling research, development, and demonstration projects at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory focused on how process simulation models can enable better integration of resilience, energy efficiency, and low-carbon design strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

IC Project: w19_hossfault “Modelling of stick-slip behavior in sheared granular fault gouge & nonlinear elasticity behavior in cracked solid”

Low frequency earthquakes, non-volcanic tremor, and acoustic emissions are examples of weak seismic signals that may help detect major seismic events, i.e., earthquakes. In a laboratory setting, in which stick-slip events are simulated, acoustic emissions are detected far from the stick-slip events. In both, field and laboratory scale cases, the acoustic emission signals are sourced or detected in a volume remote from the volume that spawns the earthquake. Therefore, it is relevant to establish the causal relationship between signals detected on passive, remote monitors and the dynamics of the elastic structures that launch important seismic events. The work conducted under this IC allocation allowed us to utilize a numerical model that let us follow this causality, i.e., examine and connect the dynamics in a granular system (fault gouge), to signals detected on passive remote monitors. It was demonstrated that stress chains are key in the dynamics of granular systems and that their evolution is the source of the acoustic emission.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale Strategy for Predicting Radiation Chemistry in Polymers

A primary mode for radiation damage in polymers arises from ballistic electrons that induce electronic excitations, yet subsequent chemical mechanisms are poorly understood. We develop a multiscale strategy to predict this chemistry starting from subatomic scattering calculations. Nonadiabatic molecular dynamics simulations sample initial bond-breaking events following the most likely excitations, which feed into semiempirical simulations that approach chemical equilibrium. Application to polyethylene reveals a mechanism explaining the low propensity to cross-link in crystalline samples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nonequilibrium Solvent Effects during Photodissociation in Liquids: Dynamical Energy Surfaces, Caging and Chemical Identity

In the gas phase, potential energy surfaces can be used to provide insight into the details of photochemical reaction dynamics. In solution, however, it is unclear what potential energy surfaces, if any, can be used to describe even simple chemical reactions such as the photodissociation of a diatomic solute. In this paper, we use mixed quantum/classical (MQC) molecular dynamics (MD) to study the photodissociation of $Na$ $^+_2$ in both liquid Ar and liquid tetrahydrofuran (THF). We examine both the gas-phase potential surfaces and potentials of mean force (PMF), which assume that the solvent remains at equilibrium with the solute throughout the photodissociation process and show that neither resemble a nonequilibrium dynamical energy surface that is generated by taking the time integral of work. For the photodissociation of $Na$ $^+_2$ in liquid Ar, the dynamical energy surface shows clear signatures of solvent caging, and the degree of caging is directly related to the mass of the solvent atoms. For $Na$ $^+_2$ in liquid THF, local specific interactions between the solute and solvent lead to changes in chemical identity that create a kinetic trap that effectively prevents the molecule from dissociating. Here, the results show that nonequilibrium effects play an important role even in simple solution-phase reactions, requiring the use of dynamical energy surface to understand such chemical events.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simulating and Evaluating Atmospheric River-Induced Precipitation Extremes Along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Studies From 1980–2017

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for a majority of extreme precipitation and floodevents along the U.S. West Coast. To better understand the present-day characteristics of AR-relatedprecipitation extremes, a selection of nine most intense historical AR events during 1980–2017 is simulatedusing a dynamical downscaling modeling framework based on the Weather Research and ForecastingModel. We find that the chosen framework and Weather Research and Forecasting Model configurationreproduces both large-scale atmospheric features—including parent synoptic-scale cyclones—as well asthe filamentary corridors of integrated vapor transport associated with the ARs themselves. The accuracyof simulated extreme precipitation maxima, relative to in situ and interpolated gridded observations,improves notably with increasing model resolution, with improvements as large as 40–60% for fine scale(3 km) relative to coarse-scale (27 km) simulations. A separate set of simulations using smoothedtopography suggests that much of these gains stem from the improved representation of complex terrain.Additionally, using the 12 December 1995 storm in Northern California as an example, we demonstratethat only the highest-resolution simulations resolve important fine-scale features—such as localizedorographically forced vertical motion and powerful near hurricane-force boundary layer winds. Given thedemonstrated ability of a targeted dynamical downscaling framework to capture both local extremeprecipitation and key fine-scale characteristics of the most intense ARs in the historical record, we arguethat such a configuration may be highly conducive to understanding AR-related extremes and associatedchanges in a warming climate

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗