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Data from: "Towards CONUS-Wide ML-Augmented Conceptually-Interpretable Modeling of Catchment-Scale Precipitation-Storage-Runoff Dynamics"

This data package was generated to support the manuscript “Towards CONUS-Wide Machine Learning-Augmented Conceptually Interpretable Modeling of Catchment-Scale Precipitation-Storage-Runoff Dynamics.” It provides input files, model outputs, plotting data, scripts, notebooks, and documentation used to develop, evaluate, and reproduce Mass-Conserving Perceptron (MCP)-based hydrologic modeling experiments across 513 selected Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies in the United States (CAMELS-US) basins. The files are organized by modeling component and analysis purpose, including rainfall–runoff experiments, snow module experiments, coupled hydrologic-snow experiments, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) benchmark results, model skill metrics, initialization and epoch records, cell-state normalization files, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)-based model comparison files, and data used to generate manuscript figures. Tabular files can be opened using standard spreadsheet software or Python/R data-analysis tools. Python scripts, Jupyter notebooks, and selected MATLAB scripts are included for model execution, postprocessing, plotting, and statistical analysis. Quality assurance and quality control were conducted through the source-data selection and modeling workflow. Meteorological forcing, streamflow, and static catchment attributes were derived from the CAMELS-US dataset, and snow water equivalent data were derived from the University of Arizona (UA) Snow Water Equivalent dataset. Selected basins and time periods were screened during the associated research workflow to avoid missing observations or poor-quality cases. Static geospatial features were processed primarily using Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) and Geospatial Data Abstraction Library (GDAL) workflows. Additional details are provided in the associated manuscript and documentation.

ESS-DIVE CSV File Formatting Guidelines Reporting ↗

Connections Between Mean North Pacific Circulation and Western US Precipitation Extremes in a Warming Climate

Abstract Extreme precipitation has widespread impacts over the western US (WUS), which are expected to be exacerbated in the future given thermodynamically driven increases in atmospheric moisture and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. However, internal climate variability complicates how these factors affect future projections of precipitation changes. In this study, we investigate late 21st‐century changes in mean‐state responses over the North Pacific Ocean and associated WUS precipitation extremes using the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, which is a recent and valuable resource to disentangle the effects of model structural differences from internal variability. We found that inter‐model differences in precipitation extremes over the WUS are large: from south to north (here, from California to Washington), models show different levels of increases for both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. In general, the Pacific Northwest sees a more consistent signal than California. We show that wet‐season mean circulation influences extreme precipitation, by using a decomposition of the relative contributions of thermodynamic (atmospheric humidity) and dynamic (large‐scale circulation) driven changes. The thermodynamic contribution dominates, however, the dynamic contribution varies with latitude and differs substantially between model ensembles. Inter‐model differences affect the spread in not only the magnitude, but also the sign of the dynamic contribution. This implies that mean circulation changes contribute to uncertainty in quantifying the regional structure of concentrated moisture flux and future extreme events. This result highlights the need to more accurately constrain projected North Pacific coupled circulation changes to narrow the spread in projections of future precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structural Impact of Grid-Forming Inverters on Power System Coherency

This paper addresses the following fundamental research question: how does the integration of grid-forming inverters (GFMs) replacing conventional synchronous generators (SGs) impact the slow coherent eigen-structure and the low frequency oscillatory behavior of future power systems? Due to time-scale separated dynamics, generator states inside a coherent area synchronize over a fast time-scale due to stronger coupling, while the areas themselves synchronize over a slower time scale. Our mathematical analysis shows that due to the large-scale integration of GFMs, the weighted Laplacian structure of the frequency dynamics is preserved, however, the entries of the Laplacian may be significantly modified based on the location and penetration levels of the GFMs. This can impact and potentially significantly alter the coherency structure of the system. We have validated our findings with numerical results using the IEEE 68-bus test system.

Mukherjee, Sayak [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗

Numerical Analysis of Combustion Dynamics in a Full-Scale Rotating Detonation Rocket Engine using Large Eddy Simulations

Large eddy simulations (LES) using detailed chemistry and leveraging adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) are performed to gain insights into the combustion dynamics within a full-scale methane-oxygen non-premixed rotating detonation rocket engine (RDRE) employing impinging discrete injection schemes. In particular, a comparative analysis of two operating conditions corresponding to the same global equivalence ratio but different mass flow rates is carried out to investigate the resultant impact on detonation wave characteristics and RDRE global performance. Multiple co-rotating detonation waves with spatially-distributed wave structure and preferential alignment with the inner wall of the annulus (due to asymmetry in fuel distribution) are encountered under both conditions. Both cases exhibit pre-detonation deflagrative burning in the fill region, while one of the cases shows higher susceptibility to backflow into the feed plenums due to lower plenum pressures. Furthermore, heat release analysis shows that the thrust obtained from the RDRE is closely linked to the distribution of total heat release between detonative and deflagrative combustion. On the other hand, combustion efficiency is associated with the fraction of heat release occurring in fuel-rich versus fuel-lean regions within the RDRE.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Dynamic Equivalence of Large-Scale Power Systems Based on Boundary Measurements

Parallel computing helped speed up many tasks that can be done independently. The advance in gaming industry did not produce a technology that helps the power industry to reduce the computation time for dynamic simulation in individual cases. To perform faster than real-time simulation for the purpose of predicting power system dynamic trajectory, power industry continues to struggle to reduce the system size and simulation time of large-scale power systems while keeping its dynamic behavior under various disturbances. There is also an acute need for real-time dynamic model reduction as more renewables enter the generation mix with dramatic changes in the generation outputs. All existing model reduction solutions are based on having access to a detailed dynamic model of the system. The system changes by the minutes, dynamic models are only updated annually. To solve this problem, wide-area measurements obtained by the phasor measurement unit (PMU) at the boundaries between the reduced system and the study system is used to represent the external area. An artificial neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is established to perform the mapping of the measurement to the external equivalent model. Here the external area is regarded as a black-box. Model reduction studies are conducted on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) under various types of contingencies, by using a co-simulation approach between PSS/E and MATLAB. The results look very promising and will be discussed in this paper.

Tong, Ning↗

Validation of blade-resolved computational fluid dynamics for a MW-scale turbine rotor in atmospheric flow

In this study, simulation results of two different computational fluid dynamics codes, Nalu-Wind and EllipSys3D, are presented for a wind turbine rotor in complex yawed and sheared inflow. The results are compared to measurements from the DanAero experiments, to validate computed pressures and azimuthal trends. Despite different code methodologies and grid setups, the codes agree well in computed pressures and integrated forces along the blade for all blade azimuthal positions, however with some discrepancy in the very yawed case. Additionally, both codes capture well the azimuthal trends and force levels seen in measurements. Investigation into discrepancies shows that expanding grids before the rotor, lead to smearing of the wind profiles, which is likely the main cause of the differences in the results between the codes. Additionally, omission of the ground constraint cause discrepancies in relative velocity seen by the passing blade, due to an over speeding beneath the rotor.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Dynamic Modeling and Analysis for Large-Scale Renewable Energy Integration

Lina He will present dynamic modeling techniques for the integration of large-scale renewable energy systems. The presentation will address the challenges associated with high renewable penetration and provide frameworks for ensuring smooth and reliable grid operations.

Dynamic modeling, large-scale renewable integratio↗

TDCOSMO - IV. Hierarchical time-delay cosmography – joint inference of the Hubble constant and galaxy density profiles

The H0LiCOW collaboration inferred via strong gravitational lensing time delays a Hubble constant value of H0 = 73.3−1.8+1.7 km s−1 Mpc−1, describing deflector mass density profiles by either a power-law or stars (constant mass-to-light ratio) plus standard dark matter halos. The mass-sheet transform (MST) that leaves the lensing observables unchanged is considered the dominant source of residual uncertainty in H0. We quantify any potential effect of the MST with a flexible family of mass models, which directly encodes it, and they are hence maximally degenerate with H0. Our calculation is based on a new hierarchical Bayesian approach in which the MST is only constrained by stellar kinematics. The approach is validated on mock lenses, which are generated from hydrodynamic simulations. We first applied the inference to the TDCOSMO sample of seven lenses, six of which are from H0LiCOW, and measured H0 = 74.5−6.1+5.6 km s−1 Mpc−1. Secondly, in order to further constrain the deflector mass density profiles, we added imaging and spectroscopy for a set of 33 strong gravitational lenses from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample. For nine of the 33 SLAC lenses, we used resolved kinematics to constrain the stellar anisotropy. From the joint hierarchical analysis of the TDCOSMO+SLACS sample, we measured H0 = 67.4−3.2+4.1 km s−1 Mpc−1. This measurement assumes that the TDCOSMO and SLACS galaxies are drawn from the same parent population. The blind H0LiCOW, TDCOSMO-only and TDCOSMO+SLACS analyses are in mutual statistical agreement. The TDCOSMO+SLACS analysis prefers marginally shallower mass profiles than H0LiCOW or TDCOSMO-only. Without relying on the form of the mass density profile used by H0LiCOW, we achieve a ∼5% measurement of H0. While our new hierarchical analysis does not statistically invalidate the mass profile assumptions by H0LiCOW – and thus the H0 measurement relying on them – it demonstrates the importance of understanding the mass density profile of elliptical galaxies. The uncertainties on H0 derived in this paper can be reduced by physical or observational priors on the form of the mass profile, or by additional data.Key words: gravitational lensing: strong / galaxies: general / galaxies: kinematics and dynamics / distance scale / cosmological parameters / cosmology: observations⋆ The full analysis is available at https://github.com/TDCOSMO/hierarchy_analysis_2020_public.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ponderomotive force driven density modifications parallel to B on the LAPD

The ponderomotive force has previously been identified as a possible driver of observed density modifications close to radio frequency actuators during operation. This nonlinear force redistributes density in regions of gradients in the magnitude of an oscillating electric field and describes the influence of the fast time scale RF wave dynamics on slow time scale plasma transport. Depletion of the saturation current (a proxy for the density) measured at the Large Plasma Device (LAPD) was 30–35% during ion cyclotron range of frequencies operation. A coupled 1D plasma transport and cold plasma frequency domain wave solver was developed to self-consistently describe ponderomotive effects and was used to compare with results obtained from the LAPD experiment. The scaled current density driver for the wave model yielded an RF B field in close agreement with two components of the experimental data. However, the 1D parallel model did not accurately reproduce the amplitude or spatial distribution observed in experimental measurements of By. Within the limitations of the 1D model, initial simulation results showed that the ponderomotive force depleted up to 8% for high power (1 MW) and around 1% for the experimental power of 120 kW. This could suggest that the ponderomotive force is not the main driver of density modification for the LAPD experiments presented in this paper. Higher fidelity tools of at least 2D will be required to give a more realistic description of the RF E fields and the effect of the ponderomotive force on the LAPD.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

TEMPEST3 surface runoff water chemistry and organic matter composition

Coastal flooding, driven by storm surges and sea level rise, can mobilize organic matter (OM) via runoff, while introducing compositionally distinct OM (e.g., estuarine OM) into the system. To understand event-scale OM dynamics, we monitored source waters and surface runoff during an ecosystem-scale field manipulation experiment, TEMPEST (Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments), in June 2024. The TEMPEST experiment is part of the COMPASS-FME (Coastal Observations, Mechanisms, and Predictions Across Systems and Scales – Field, Measurements, and Experiments) project and designed to investigate biogeochemical and ecological impacts of freshwater and seawater flooding on coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface ecosystems by simulating freshwater and seawater storm events in two 2000m2 coastal upland forest plots (freshwater and brackish seawater plots). The temporal coverage of this dataset is during the TEMPESTⅢ event (June 11-13, 2024). This dataset contains: - Surface runoff discharge measured by flumes - Sensor data (specific conductivity, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and temperature) - Particle size distribution - Total suspended sediment concentrations (TSS), particulate and dissolved organic carbon (POC, DOC) concentrations, total nitrogen and total dissolved nitrogen (TN, TDN) concentrations - Bulk particulate and dissolved OM compositions (stable C and N isotopes of particulates and optical measurements of chromophoric dissolved OM) - High resolution mass spectrometry analysis data - Water isotope data All data files are plain-text CSV (comma-separated value), and no special software is required to read them.

COMPASS-FME↗

A practical approach to determine minimal quantum gate durations using amplitude-bounded quantum controls

Here, we present an iterative scheme to estimate the minimal duration in which a quantum gate can be realized while satisfying hardware constraints on the control pulse amplitudes. The scheme performs a sequence of unconstrained numerical optimal control cycles that each minimize the gate fidelity for a given gate duration alongside an additional penalty term for the control pulse amplitudes. After each cycle, the gate duration is adjusted based on the inverse of the resulting maximum control pulse amplitudes by re-scaling the dynamics to a new duration where control pulses satisfy the amplitude constraints. Those scaled controls then serve as an initial guess for the next unconstrained optimal control cycle, using the adjusted gate duration. We provide multiple numerical examples that each demonstrate fast convergence of the scheme toward a gate duration that is close to the quantum speed limit, given the control pulse amplitude bound. The proposed technique is agnostic to the underlying system and control Hamiltonian models, as well as the target unitary gate operation, making the time-scaling iteration an easy to implement and practically useful scheme for reducing the durations of quantum gate operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dynamic Model Reduction for Large-Scale Power Systems Using Wide-Area Measurements

To perform faster than the real-time dynamic simulation of large-scale power systems, it is necessary to reduce the simulated system size by using equivalents for surrounding areas of the study area, and existing dynamic model reduction approach could provide the needed structure of the reduced area. However, further parameter optimization is required to achieve the desired accuracy. In this paper, a particle swarm optimization (PSO) based approach is used to solve the above problem. Parameters for the individual dynamic elements in the reduced system are calibrated repeatedly until the wide-area measurements of the reduced model and the original model are very similar to each other with satisfactory accuracy. Results indicate that after optimization, the dynamic response of the reduced model matches better with that of the original one than using existing methods. Under both the generator-trip event and the bus-fault event, the reduced model has a higher frequency match and less power mismatch.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Temporal evolution of the light emitted by a thin, laser-ionized plasma source

We present an experimental and simulation-based investigation of the temporal evolution of light emission from a thin, laser-ionized helium plasma source. We demonstrate an analytic model to calculate the approximate scaling of the time-integrated, on-axis light emission with the initial plasma density and temperature, supported by the experiment, which enhances the understanding of plasma light measurement for plasma wakefield accelerator (PWFA) plasma sources. Our model simulates the plasma density and temperature using a split-step Fourier code and a particle-in-cell code. A fluid simulation is then used to model the plasma and neutral density, and the electron temperature as a function of time and position. We then show the numerical results of the space-and-time-resolved light emission and that collisional excitation is the dominant source of light emission. We validate our model by measuring the light emitted by a laser-ionized plasma using a novel statistical method capable of resolving the nanosecond-scale temporal dynamics of the plasma light using a cost-effective camera with microsecond-scale timing jitter. This method is ideal for deployment in the high radiation environment of a particle accelerator that precludes the use of expensive nanosecond-gated cameras. Our results show that our models can effectively simulate the dynamics of a thin, laser-ionized plasma source. In addition, this work provides a detailed understanding of the plasma light measurement, which is one of the few diagnostic signals available for the direct measurement of PWFA plasma sources.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Efficient Space–Time Reduced Order Model for Linear Dynamical Systems in Python Using Less than 120 Lines of Code

A classical reduced order model (ROM) for dynamical problems typically involves only the spatial reduction of a given problem. Recently, a novel space–time ROM for linear dynamical problems has been developed [Choi et al., Space–tume reduced order model for large-scale linear dynamical systems with application to Boltzmann transport problems, Journal of Computational Physics, 2020], which further reduces the problem size by introducing a temporal reduction in addition to a spatial reduction without much loss in accuracy. The authors show an order of a thousand speed-up with a relative error of less than 10−5 for a large-scale Boltzmann transport problem. In this work, we present for the first time the derivation of the space–time least-squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG) projection for linear dynamical systems and its corresponding block structures. Utilizing these block structures, we demonstrate the ease of construction of the space–time ROM method with two model problems: 2D diffusion and 2D convection diffusion, with and without a linear source term. For each problem, we demonstrate the entire process of generating the full order model (FOM) data, constructing the space–time ROM, and predicting the reduced-order solutions, all in less than 120 lines of Python code. We compare our LSPG method with the traditional Galerkin method and show that the space–time ROMs can achieve O(10−3) to O(10−4) relative errors for these problems. Depending on parameter–separability, online speed-ups may or may not be achieved. For the FOMs with parameter–separability, the space–time ROMs can achieve O(10) online speed-ups. Finally, we present an error analysis for the space–time LSPG projection and derive an error bound, which shows an improvement compared to traditional spatial Galerkin ROM methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Technical descriptions of the experimental dynamical downscaling simulations over North America by the CAM–MPAS variable-resolution model

Abstract. Comprehensive assessment of climate datasets is important for communicating model projections and associated uncertainties to stakeholders. Uncertainties can arise not only from assumptions and biases within the model but also from external factors such as computational constraint and data processing. To understand sources of uncertainties in global variable-resolution (VR) dynamical downscaling, we produced a regional climate dataset using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS; dynamical core version 4.0) coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM; version 5.4), which we refer to as CAM–MPAS hereafter. This document provides technical details of the model configuration, simulations, computational requirements, post-processing, and data archive of the experimental CAM–MPAS downscaling data. The CAM–MPAS model is configured with VR meshes featuring higher resolutions over North America as well as quasi-uniform-resolution meshes across the globe. The dataset includes multiple uniform- (240 and 120 km) and variable-resolution (50–200, 25–100, and 12–46 km) simulations for both the present-day (1990–2010) and future (2080–2100) periods, closely following the protocol of the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment. A deviation from the protocol is the pseudo-warming experiment for the future period, using the ocean boundary conditions produced by adding the sea surface temperature and sea-ice changes from the low-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to the present-day ocean state from a reanalysis product. Some unique aspects of global VR models are evaluated to provide background knowledge to data users and to explore good practices for modelers who use VR models for regional downscaling. In the coarse-resolution domain, strong resolution sensitivity of the hydrological cycles exists over the tropics but does not appear to affect the midlatitude circulations in the Northern Hemisphere, including the downscaling target of North America. The pseudo-warming experiment leads to similar responses of large-scale circulations to the imposed radiative and boundary forcings in the CAM–MPAS and MPI-ESM-LR models, but their climatological states in the historical period differ over various regions, including North America. Such differences are carried to the future period, suggesting the importance of the base state climatology. Within the refined domain, precipitation statistics improve with higher resolutions, and such statistical inference is verified to be negligibly influenced by horizontal remapping during post-processing. Limited (≈50 % slower) throughput of the current code is found on a recent many-core/wide-vector high-performance computing system, which limits the lengths of the 12–46 km simulations and indirectly affects sampling uncertainty. Our experience shows that global and technical aspects of the VR downscaling framework require further investigations to reduce uncertainties for regional climate projection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗