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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Electric-Sector Decision Making: Demand-Side Effects

Previous work by the Berkeley Lab describes how high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as wind and solar power could change wholesale electricity price dynamics. These include the timing of when electricity is cheap or expensive, locational differences in the cost of electricity, and the degree of regularity or predictability in those costs. Many decentralized decision-makers on the demand-side may not yet have considered the implications of these possible future changes. In this report, we evaluate the sensitivity of a set of demand-side decisions to different levels of VRE penetration ranging from a low of 5-20% to a high of 40-50%. The analysis builds on hourly wholesale energy and capacity prices in different VRE scenarios for four wholesale markets in the United States for the year 2030 (CAISO, ERCOT, NYISO, and SPP). The principal question for this exploration is whether private and public electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE scenario with 40-50% wind and solar? This scoping report evaluates the impacts of changing patterns of peak system needs on the benefits of demand reductions by examining the altered value of different energy efficiency (EE) measures. Similarly, we investigate new opportunities for large energy consumers that may arise from periods with very low wholesale electricity prices. We calculate the value of new process investments (e.g., hydrogen production and other generalized electro-commodities), showcase the varying value of new product storage investments (such as reservoir extensions at a desalination plant), and estimate the benefits of increased process flexibility that uses electricity as a process-input in addition to traditional fossil fuels (e.g., district energy systems). Finally, many decentralized decision-makers and end-use customers are not directly exposed to wholesale electricity prices but instead receive price signals from their retail electricity rates. As wind and solar shares increase, we compare the economic efficiency of flat retail rates relative to more dynamic time-of-use tariffs with and without critical peak-pricing events.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding the Costs and Barriers of Residential Electrical Panel and Service Upgrades

Upgrading electrical panels and services in U.S. homes represents a significant barrier to building modernization, imposing considerable costs, delays, and procedural uncertainties on homeowners, contractors, utilities, and building departments. Although cost databases document individual infrastructure activities, they rarely capture the integrated, whole-project perspective required to understand how electrical upgrades are planned, executed, and regulated. Existing research is often geographically constrained, narrowly scoped, or derived from limited samples, leaving significant knowledge gaps unaddressed. This study examines the timelines and costs associated with residential electrical panel and service upgrades using data from a national cross- sectional survey conducted in summer 2025. The survey captured responses from 140 stakeholders across 34 states, including building industry professionals, utility staff, and building department staff. Findings indicate that project duration and cost increase substantially with building size though patterns vary by infrastructure type. Most single-family and small multifamily projects were completed within 30 days, whereas medium and large multifamily buildings show longer and less predictable timelines. Service rating increases modestly extend project duration, but building type and size were the primary determinants of delays. Cost patterns were similar: customer-side equipment and panel replacements scale predictably with building size, while utility-side costs are highly variable, often triggered by threshold-driven infrastructure upgrades such as transformer replacements. Permit fees vary considerably between jurisdictions but generally represent a minor proportion of total project costs. These findings identify electrical upgrades as a significant barrier to residential building costs and highlight the need for improved stakeholder coordination, streamlined permitting, and strategies that reduce upgrade requirements while maintaining safety and code compliance.

Casquero-Modrego, Nuria↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chapter 10 - Economic Considerations for Hydrogen Production with a Focus on Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis

This Chapter provides an overview of key economic considerations for hydrogen produced from water electrolysis, with the analyses presented here ranging from high-level summaries to detailed considerations of key market and technological drivers. As the electric power sector evolves to account for increasing shares of renewable energy, opportunities are emerging for technologies capable of storing renewable energy in various forms, including as hydrogen. Opportunities for reducing the cost of hydrogen produced from electrolysis include ensuring access to low-cost wholesale electricity, reducing the capital cost of electrolyzers, and development of systems capable of being dispatchable loads without experiencing significant efficiency penalties throughout lifetime. Our analysis indicates that numerous pathways exist for making hydrogen from electrolysis cost-competitive with hydrogen produced from conventional technologies, and significant opportunities exist for research and development to address performance targets for the future electrolysis systems envisioned here.

cost reduction↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bench-Scale Testing of a High Efficiency, Ultra-Compact Process for Pre-Combustion CO 2 Capture (Final Report)

The overarching objective of this bench-scale study is to field-validate the technical feasibility of a membrane- and adsorption-enhanced water gas shift (WGS) reaction process that employs a carbon molecular sieve (CMS) membrane reactor (MR) followed by an adsorption reactor (AR) for pre-combustion CO 2 capture while demonstrating progress towards achievement of the overall performance goals of CO 2 capture with 95% CO 2 purity at a cost of electricity (COE) of 30% less than the baseline capture approaches. The main goal of this bench-scale project is to advance the proposed MR-AR transformative CO 2 capture technology to a sufficient maturity level so that our present industrial partners (M&PT and Worley) can potentially adapt the technology for further small pilot-scale testing. The project began at TRL 4, as the system prototype had already been validated in the laboratory on simulated syngas (as part of project DE-FE0026423). The project ended at TRL 5, via scaling-up of the prototype system and testing it on actual syngas at a host site (CAER at the University of Kentucky (UKy)). The project was carried-out in two different phases: In Phase I (during BP1 of the project), the team designed, constructed, and assembled the bench-scale experimental MR-AR system, prepared the membranes, adsorbents, and catalysts, tested the bench-scale unit with simulated syngas to validate functionality, and prepared a preliminary TEA of the technology. In Phase II (during BP2 of the project), the team installed the unit at the test site at the UKy site and completed all utility connections and hookups, field-tested the novel MR-AR process in the bench-scale system using real syngas, collected and analyzed experimental data, and completed a detailed TEA of the technology. A key aim of the project was to identify and address the technical and process risks and to generate information to advance the technology to the next stage of development. All project milestones and success criteria were met. Specifically, the team: (i) designed, constructed and assembled a bench scale system that handled 1 – 5 scfm syngas and tested its functionality with simulated syngas; (ii) prepared high performance CMS membrane tubes (ID: 3.5 mm, OD: 5.7 mm, 30” long) that meet the target H 2 permeance ( > 1 m 3 /(m 2 .hr.bar) or (> 370.3 GPU)) and a target H 2 /CO selectivity >80 at the relevant temperature (up to 300oC) and pressure conditions (up to 25 bar) with a <10% decline in performance over each 250 hr. testing period (iii) procured commercial sour-shift catalyst in sufficient quantity and prepared up to 10 kg of pelletized adsorbent for use at relevant conditions (250oC 2.5wt.% and target sorbent attrition rate < 0.2; (iv) installed the bench-scale unit at the test site (UKy) and tested the MR-AR technology using real syngas for over 250 hr. for both static and flow experiments; (v) updated the TEA analysis based on bench-scale data and met CO 2 capture goals of 95% CO 2 purity at a cost of electricity 30% less than baseline capture approaches. The CMS membranes, HTC adsorbents and catalysts employed all exhibited very robust and stable performance during the long-term run (over a >250 hr live syngas run). Furthermore, the proposed MR-AR IGCC system achieved a LCOE with a N 2 sale price of $\$$ 30/ton, with N 2 compression (no N 2 compression) of 101.2 $\$$/MWh (95.3 $\$$/MWh), which represents a 29.8% (33.9%) LCOE reduction in the baseline IGCC with carbon capture of 144.2 $\$$/MWh. The proposed MR-AR IGCC delivers a CO 2 capture cost of 44.8 $\$$/tonne (39.9 $\$$/tonne) vs 98.1 $\$$/tonne of the baseline capture case and a net power production of 586 MWe (623 MWe) vs 556 MWe of the baseline capture case.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-economic Analysis of Novel PV Plant Designs for Extreme Cost Reductions

A techno-economic analysis is underway examining the cost and performance of future large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plant components, including bifacial modules, tandem modules, increased plant voltage architectures, and module-level power electronics. Integration of these components into PV plant designs is compared with current PV technologies based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Baseline models are developed and validated against recorded PV plant performance data. Expected cost and performance data of future PV technologies are incorporated into the baseline models. An evolutionary algorithm is utilized to optimize PV plant configuration, technology combination, and LCOE. This paper focuses on the bifacial module analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Heat Transfer Characteristics of Particle and Air Flow Through Additively Manufactured Lattice Frame Material Based on Octet-Shape Topology

Particle-to-supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) heat exchanger is a critical component in next-generation concentrating solar power (CSP) plants. The inherently low heat transfer between falling particles and sCO 2 imposes a challenge toward economic justification of levelized cost of electricity produced through solar energy. Introduction of integrated porous media with the walls bounding particle flow has the potential to enhance the overall particle-to-sCO 2 heat exchanger performance. Here, this paper presents an experimental study on heat transfer characterization of additively manufactured lattice frame material based on Octet-shaped unit cell with particles and air as working fluids. The lattice structures were additively manufactured in stainless steel (SS) 316L and SS420 (with 40% bronze infiltration) via Binder jetting process, where the lattice porosities were varied between 0.75 and 0.9. The mean particle diameters were varied from 266 μm to 966 μm. The effective thermal conductivity and averaged heat transfer coefficient were determined through steady-state experiments. It was found that the presence of lattice enhances the effective thermal conductivity by 2–4 times when compared to packed bed of particles alone. Furthermore, for gravity-assisted particle flow through lattice panel, significantly high convective heat transfer coefficients ranging from 200 W/m2K to 400 W/m2K were obtained for the range of particle diameters tested. The superior thermal transport properties of Octet-shape-based lattice frame for particle flow makes it a very promising candidate for particle-to-sCO 2 heat exchanger for CSP application.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic analysis and network design for CO 2 conversion to jet fuels in the United States

The conversion of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into jet fuel holds significant potential for reducing CO 2 emissions, providing an alternative to carbon-based resources, and offering a renewable means of energy storage. The objective of this study is to conduct a techno-economic analysis and optimize the supply chain network for converting CO 2 to jet fuel in the United States, aiming to minimize total costs while assessing the environmental and economic feasibility of two CO 2 conversion pathways. This first pathway is based on Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FTS), and the other one is based on the valorization and upgrading of light methanol (MeOH). Incorporating spatial and techno-economic data, a mixed-integer linear programming model was developed to select source plants and conversion pathways, locations of conversion refinery sites, and the amount of captured CO 2 across the United States. The optimal results indicate that the FTS pathway is adopted at all selected refineries when the hydrogen price is 1000 dollars/t and the operating cost, mainly electricity used in conversion, is reduced to 5 % of its current level. Under this scenario, the total annual profit is 8 billion dollars, and the net carbon emissions are -88,783,284 tons. The sensitivity analyses reveal that the prices of electricity and hydrogen significantly contribute to total production costs. The CO 2 recycle percentage of the FTS pathway influences the choice of applied pathways at refineries. Additionally, a higher conversion rate holds a substantial promise for reducing the total production cost and can make the MeOH pathway a viable choice.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transition to High-Hydrogen Fueled Advanced Gas Turbine Engines for Land-Based Power Generation and Industrial Applications

Invited lecture presented as part of the 2023 University of Central Florida - Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Seminar Series. These slides discuss the role of multi-sourced hydrogen for electrical power generation. Particular focus is given to the combustion of hydrogen for the purpose of chemical to thermal energy. Pressure gain combustion is given as an example technology that could leverage hydrogen as a fuel source ultimately leading to higher rates of energy conversion (chemical to electrical) resulting in greater energy security and reduced cost of electricity.

advanced gas turbines↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mechanically-, Thermally, and Chemically-Robust High-Temperature Ceramic Composites

In an effort to lower the levelized cost of electricity generated by Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants, the heat-to-electricity conversion efficiency may be increased by operating such plants with higher turbine inlet temperatures using closed Brayton cycles with high-pressure, supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) as the working fluid. For example, if the turbine inlet temperature is raised to ≥750°C, in combination with sCO2 closed Brayton cycles, the relative heat-to-electricity efficiency may be raised by more than 20% (compared to subcritical steam Rankine cycles operating with turbine inlet temperatures ≤550°C). The associated reduction in the cost of dispatchable electricity from such CSP plants (utilizing high-temperature thermal energy storage) would be an important breakthrough on the path towards direct competition with fossil-fuel-based plants. A key barrier to achieve such high-temperature efficient operation has been the limited thermomechanical performance of metal alloys used in compact, primary printed circuit- type heat exchangers (PCHEXs) for heat transfer to high-pressure sCO 2 . The maximum allowed stresses for the use of conventional stainless steels and nickel-based superalloys at high sCO 2 pressures (≥20 MPa) decline rapidly at temperatures ≥550°C. This project has been focused on demonstrating the desired high-temperature properties and attractive manufacturing characteristics of mechanically-, thermally-, and chemically-robust ceramic/metal composites (cermets), in order to allow for the use of such composites in primary PCHEXs for heat transfer to sCO 2 at ≥750°C and ≥20 MPa in CSP plants. Prior work with high-temperature, co-continuous carbide/refractory metal cermets, such as ZrC/W composites, has already demonstrated: i) the attractive combination of high-temperature properties exhibited by such materials (e.g., high values of stiffness, failure strength, and thermal conductivity at 800°C), and ii) cost-effective processes for manufacturing PCHEX plates comprised of such cermets with tailorable channel patterns. However, ZrC/W cermets were not found to be inherently corrosion resistant in sCO 2 at 750°C and 20 MPa. While the application of a Cu coating to ZrC/W surfaces, along with a modest addition (50 ppm) of CO to CO 2 , rendered such composites resistant to corrosion for 1000 h in such sCO 2 -based fluids at 750°C, such additional steps would increase the design complexity of such cermet-based components. An alternative approach (the focus of this project) is to develop mechanically-robust, cost- effective cermets that are inherently resistant to high-temperature oxidation in air and CO 2 . The overall goals of this project have been to demonstrate: i) the oxidation resistance of at least one cermet at 750°C in air and in CO 2 (i.e., with a projected annual corrosion ≤30 μm), ii) the mechanically robust nature of at least one cermet at 750°C (i.e., with an average failure strength ≥200 MPa), and iii) that the selected cermet can be manufactured via low-cost forming techniques.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The development of a Sustained High Power Density (SHPD) facility

A Sustained High Power Density (SHPD) facility is being planned within the U.S. as a non DT device which can be a bridge to a Compact Fusion Pilot Plant (CFPP) DT operated facility with the future capacity to produce a levelised cost of electricity at a rate competitive with current power generating systems. To accomplish this a review of ITER cost data and recent next step physics/engineering studies that promoted technology development, physics enhancements and innovated configuration improvements that increase operating availability have been injected into a proposed PPPL SHPD design. Much of the physics and engineering design basis for this effort centers on a series of ST studies carried out in recent years attempting to maximize the low aspect ratio (AR) ST performance within realistic engineering constraints of this compact fusion device. One issue found in the low AR design is the lack of volt-seconds generated by a small central solenoid that resides in the available space left after sizing the TF structure to support the high current density/HTS TF coil. Although not required in a larger pilot plant device, a solenoid wrapped around the plasma side of the SC TF coil was considered for the small low aspect ratio SHPD device. Adding a solenoid to the plasma side of the TF imposes a major change to the device configuration – a change which has been found to have cost and assembly issues when compared with an OH solenoid located at the machine center. Finally, the inclusion of a liquid metal first wall divertor system, the integration of local pairs of outboard DCLL blanket segments and a summary of physics performance conditions will be presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy Paths for the Yurok People

The Yurok Tribe has been working for more than two decades to bring adequate, cost-effective energy services to their Tribal members. With the completion of the electric line extension to Wautec, they are well on their way to an effective and sustainable energy future. However, there is still much work to be done; many Tribal households in the Upper Reservation are still without reliable, affordable electric power. Now the Tribe needs to determine the next steps to realize their energy vision. This Yurok Tribe energy strategic planning study examined electricity usage, costs and infrastructure, as well as electricity needs on the Reservation. It also assessed the Tribe’s energy resources. Equipped with this information, the project team conducted an energy options analysis that examined different project opportunities and identified key projects that are both feasible to implement and will help the Tribe reach its stated Energy Vision. There are still numerous households in the Upper Reservation and adjacent lands that are without grid electric power, and it is likely that most of them will remain disconnected from the grid because of their remoteness. To provide these community members with reliable, affordable, modern energy services their homes will need to be electrified via a robust off-grid energy services program that installs and maintains off-grid energy systems. This is the key need that is explored and addressed in this plan.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Construction Cost Reduction Pathways

High construction costs have plagued recent nuclear projects and they hamper the widespread deployment of nuclear technology. The Nuclear Cost Reduction Tool is a plant economic framework that quantifies the impact that various plant design and construction attributes have on construction costs and cost overruns and shows the positive effects of learning over a series of deployments. However, a downside of the current model is that all model outputs and capabilities are deterministic. To provide a more comprehensive view, this study evaluated the impact of model parameter uncertainty through a sensitivity analysis applied to 18 model parameters. This approach quantified the impact of model uncertainty on the output variables of Net Overnight Capital Cost (Net OCC), Construction Duration (CD), and Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Monte Carlo analysis revealed uncertainty distributions for these variables, showing that absolute uncertainty decreases over a series of deployments. A local sensitivity analysis showed that even small parameter perturbations (5%) can have a significant impact on project execution, highlighting areas that could reduce costs by billions across an order book of plants. The results of this study have improved the understanding of the model and identified the most impactful model parameters and construction attributes.

Levelized Cost of Electricity↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy Arbitrage: Comparison of Options for use with LWR Nuclear Power Plants

Arbitrage is the opportunistic buying and selling of a commodity during local pricing valleys and peaks respectively to maximize economic value. This report evaluates options for energy arbitrage integrated with existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) where nuclear energy could be stored in a variety of forms and later recovered to generate electrical power during periods when grid electricity demand and pricing are high. The forms of energy storage examined in this report include the potential value of batteries, hydrogen, and thermal energy storage for coupling with nuclear power. Various large demand response options are also analyzed, including the production of liquid nitrogen via air separation and liquefaction, liquefaction of hydrogen, compressed hydrogen, and the cryogenic capture of CO2. Demand response refers to dispatchable loads that can cycle up or down depending on-grid electricity demand to aid in balancing the grid. Large demand response options could dispatch to aid nuclear power stations in avoiding power turndowns by providing an alternate disposition for electrical energy by producing marketable products (e.g., liquid nitrogen, hydrogen, or captured CO2). Static conditions were chosen and analyzed in this report for each option. Dynamic operation or optimization of energy arbitrage or demand response are out of scope for this report. The analysis is based on storage systems with discharge capacities of 500 MW for which various durations of storage and costs of charging (electricity cost) are examined. While the value of thermal energy to an industrial user for flexible plant operations has been previously proven as a business case, this report evaluates costs of hydrogen energy storage and leading thermal energy storage options, and large demand response loads that could be integrated with LWRs in comparison to utility-scale battery storage for use of off-peak nuclear energy. Compilation of this information will be used by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) RAVEN/HERON systems integration and economics tool to evaluate thermal energy dispatch to industrial users. Relative ranking of energy storage options was done using a levelized cost of storage (LCOS) metric which calculates a rough breakeven cost for the system, taking into account the capital and operating costs as well as the revenue from arbitrage. Table ES1 below shows the LCOS for each of the energy storage options considered. First, in the table, lithium iron (Fe) phosphate batteries are listed as the base case for comparison against the other options. Next is hydrogen storage where most of the hydrogen analyses assumed the hydrogen to be produced using solid oxide electrolytic cell (SOEC) high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE). The others used existing models of polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) low temperature electrolysis to produce hydrogen. HTSE performance parameters and costs were taken from existing INL models. Various means were assumed to convert the hydrogen to electricity, including PEM fuel cells (FCs) and a gas turbine mixed in a 30 vol% mixture with natural gas. Physical storage (pressure vessels) and geological storage (natural underground features) were used to store the hydrogen as noted. Geological storage is more economical, but the locations are limited because of the requirement for pre-existing geological formations that will support storage. Thermal energy storage (TES) options were also analyzed including electro-thermal energy storage (ETES) and four different liquid sensible heat TES storage media as noted (Hitec, Hitec XL, Therminol-66, and Dowtherm A). The ETES process considered was modified using existing public documentation on an Echogen process and uses a separate supercritical CO2 charge and discharge cycle with sand as the heat storage media.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Human and Technology Integration Evaluation of Advanced Automation and Data Visualization

While the existing United States (U.S.) light water reactors are highly reliable, safe, and provide a significant proportion of carbon-free electricity, the cost of operating and maintaining them has become less competitive compared to other electricity generating sources. The reason for the gap in operating and maintenance (O&M) costs can be at least in part attributed to the advent of new digital technologies that other electricity generating industries are currently using. Advanced capabilities including digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems, advanced automation and analytics, and greater span of data integration (i.e., connectedness) across these non-nuclear plants has transformed the way work is performed and ultimately given them a competitive advantage in terms of the cost required for operating, maintaining, and supporting them. To reduce O&M cost and address obsolescence of the aging I&C infrastructure of the existing U.S. light water reactors, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program Plant Modernization Pathway is conducting targeting multidisciplinary research that 1) delivers a sustainable business model to enable a cost-competitive U.S. nuclear industry and 2) is developing technology modernization solutions that address aging and obsolescence challenges. The work described in this report supports these two objectives and describes the demonstration of human and technology integration across recent industry collaborations to support their large-scale digital I&C modifications. This technical report describes the demonstration of the human and technology integration methodology in performing full-scale performance-based human-in-the-loop tests to evaluate plant-specific advanced automation and data visualization applications within these collaborators’ digital modifications. This technical report also documents future applications of human and technology integration that expand beyond main control room modernization and digital I&C upgrades, which have been a central focus to date. Thus, this technical report discusses how to implement human and technology integration across new business opportunities and how to develop an evaluation plan that defines measures and criteria, and documents key assumptions to support full plant modernization.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel probabilistic regression model for electrical peak demand estimate of commercial and manufacturing buildings

Due to the high cost of electricity in commercial and industrial sectors, demand forecast models have gained increasing attention. However, there are two unresolved issues: (1) Models are not adaptable when exposed to previously unknown data (2) The value of regression methods vs. state-of-the-art machine learning models has not been made apparent before. This study’s goal is to develop probabilistic demand estimation models. Herein, we propose a probabilistic Bayesian regression framework that can not only estimate future demands with high accuracy but also be updated once new information is available. By applying the proposed algorithm to two real-world case studies (commercial and manufacturing), we show a 40.3% and 30.8% improvement in terms of mean absolute error for the two cases. Moreover, the proposed technique outperforms powerful machine learning approaches, including support vector machine by 10.39%, random forest by 6.17%, and multilayer perceptron by 9.14% in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-Economic Analysis of a Concentrating Solar Power Plant Using Redox-Active Metal Oxides as Heat Transfer Fluid and Storage Media

We present results for a one-dimensional quasi-steady-state thermodynamic model developed for a 111.7 MW e concentrating solar power (CSP) system using a redox-active metal oxide as the heat storage media and heat transfer agent integrated with a combined cycle air Brayton power block. In the energy charging and discharging processes, the metal oxide CaAl 0.2 Mn 0.8 O 2.9-δ (CAM28) undergoes a reversible, high temperature redox cycle including an endothermic oxygen-releasing reaction and exothermic oxygen-incorporation reaction. Concentrated solar radiation heats the redox-active oxide particles under partial vacuum to drive the reduction extent deeper for increased energy density at a fixed temperature, thereby increasing storage capacity while limiting the required on sun temperature. Direct counter-current contact of the reduced particles with compressed air from the Brayton compressor releases stored chemical and sensible energy, heating the air to 1,200°C at the turbine inlet while cooling and reoxidizing the particles. The cool oxidized particles recirculate through the solar receiver subsystem for another cycle of heating and reduction (oxygen release). We applied the techno-economic model to 1) size components, 2) examine intraday operation with varying solar insolation, 3) estimate annual performance characteristics over a simulated year, 4) estimate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and 5) perform sensitivity analyses to evaluate factors that affect performance and cost. Simulations use hourly solar radiation data from Barstow, California to assess the performance of a 111.7 MW e system with solar multiples (SMs) varying from 1.2 to 2.4 and storage capacities of 6–14 h. The baseline system with 6 h storage and SM of 1.8 has a capacity factor of 54.2%, an increase from 32.3% capacity factor with no storage, and an average annual energy efficiency of 20.6%. Calculations show a system with an output of 710 GWh e net electricity per year, 12 h storage, and SM of 2.4 to have an installed cost of $329 million, and an LCOE of 5.98 ¢/kWh e . This value meets the U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot 2020 target of 6.0 ¢/kWh e ( U. S Department of Energy, 2012 ), but falls just shy of the 5.0 ¢/kWh e 2030 CSP target for dispatchable electricity ( U. S Department of Energy, 2017 ). The cost and performance results are minimally sensitive to most design parameters. However, a one-point change in the weighted annual cost of capital from 8 to 7% (better understood as a 12.5% change) translates directly to an 11% decrease (0.66 ¢/kWhe) in the LCOE.

Gorman, Brandon T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demonstrating Load-Shaping Capabilities of Cost Minimizing Heat Pump Water Heater Controls with Varying Price Profiles

Increased penetration of photovoltaics and electrification of traditionally gas appliances are exacerbating existing challenges in cost-effectively balancing electricity grid supply and demand. Decarbonization without incurring expensive transmission and distribution system capacity increases requires shifting building loads from peak demand times to peak renewable production times. Grid operators are evaluating new ways of encouraging load shifting, including using time-varying price structures to provide a financial incentive. If devices incorporate price-responsive controls, a price profile could be designed to yield a wide variety of load curves as needed to optimize grid functionality. Heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) are an ideal device for price-responsive controls because the storage tank enables them to optimize the timing of electricity consumption without impacting hot water delivery service. This paper presents work demonstrating how price-responsive controls for HPWHs can provide different load profiles, as needed to stabilize the grid, in response to different price profiles. HPWH manufacturers now include web API and CTA-2045 communication capabilities which enable sending load shaping control signals. Pilot studies and preliminary programs have utilized these capabilities with uniform control strategies to reduce 4-9 PM electricity consumption. However, no studies have developed flexible controls capable of both a) responding to constantly varying price profiles and b) customizing logic to match the needs of each HPWH. Berkeley Lab's CalFlexHub project is pioneering price-driven load flexibility by developing and deploying cost-minimizing controls utilizing setpoint setting signals for fleets of HPWHs in response to varying price profiles. Control development is based on simulations using the Flexible Heat Pump Water Heater Performance Predictor which captures the control decisions of a residential, integrated HPWH manufacturer’s on-board controller. The proposed cost-reducing controls respond to constantly changing price profiles, providing the ability to change the price profile to generate load curves as needed to maintain grid stability. Preliminary simulations studying the load shaping capabilities of price-responsive controls on a fleet of 60 HPWHs have demonstrated an average of a) 135.4% increases in load during low-price periods, b) >36.8% reductions in electricity peak-price period, and c) 6.2% electricity cost savings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗