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DOE OSTI2025

High-resolution climate model datasets for energy infrastructure planning in a renewable-dependent future

Electrification and renewables deployment efforts are amplifying the interdependence of the climate and energy systems. Increases in climate model resolution, which is now approaching that of reanalysis datasets and operational weather forecast models, present a unique opportunity to use future climate projections for energy infrastructure planning. In this Perspective, we review recent developments in high-resolution climate modeling, which have been driven by increased computing power and advanced software tools. We then look ahead to discuss how high-resolution climate data can be used to plan for a renewable-dependent future, and envision a unified climate-energy model framework that captures the two-way feedbacks between these interdependent systems.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving commercial truck fleet composition in emission modeling using 2021 US VIUS data

Commercial trucks are essential elements of the nation's supply chain system. Meanwhile, intensive truck movements contribute significantly to system externalities, such as energy use and air pollution. However, collecting detailed fleet composition and distribution of operational patterns remains a barrier to accurately accounting for these impacts. The recently released 2021 US Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (US VIUS) fills a critical gap in understanding commercial truck fleet distributions, their operations, and business constraints at the national scale. This study aims to understand the latest US commercial vehicle fleet composition and operational characteristics using 2021 US VIUS data and calibrate the fleet inputs in regulatory emission models to assess the potential emission implications of the VIUS-derived fleet composition. The emission rates for commercial trucks and default fleet composition are collected from the U.S. EPA's MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES4). The 2021 US VIUS data is applied to improve fleet characteristics such as the long-haul fraction and the vehicle mileage accumulation rate. The study also investigates potential emission reduction benefits under various forecasted fleet electrification scenarios. The energy consumption and critical air pollutant rates by vehicle types are compared between MOVES4 and US VIUS fleets for both current and future scenarios to provide insights into the latest U.S. commercial vehicle fleet characteristics and their implications on energy and emissions. This study helps policymakers and practitioners advance the commercial fleet generation for emission models. It also deepens the understanding of the emission reduction potential of the commercial fleet under various fleet projections.

2021 US VIUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Designing Ta C Virtual Substrates for Vertical Al x Ga 1 − x N Power Electronics Devices

Power electronics are critical for a sustainable energy future, playing a key role in electrification and integration of renewable energy sources into the grid. Advances in ultrawide band gap materials are needed to handle higher powers in smaller form factors while reducing electrical and thermal losses. High Al content Al x Ga 1 − x N is theoretically capable of meeting these demands, but its impact in power electronics has been severely restricted by a lack of substrates that can satisfy conductivity, lattice matching, and/or thermal expansion requirements. We demonstrate that electrically conductive Ta C can be used as a virtual substrate for Al x Ga 1 − x N heteroepitaxy. Scaleably sputtered Ta C grown on Al 2 O 3 , followed by high-temperature face-to-face annealing, produces a thin film Ta C template with an effective hexagonal lattice constant matched to Al 0.70 Ga 0.30 N . Annealing of the Ta C promotes recrystallization, significantly improving crystallinity and reducing crystalline defects from as-deposited columnar grains to a step-and-terrace surface morphology, enabling the subsequent growth of high-quality Al 0.70 Ga 0.30 N by molecular beam epitaxy. X-ray diffraction and scanning transmission electron microscopy confirm that the Al x Ga 1 − x N layer is heteroepitaxially aligned, strain-free, and lattice-matched, transitioning abruptly from Ta C to Al x Ga 1 − x N without intermediate phases. These results demonstrate Ta C virtual substrates as electrically conductive, lattice-matched, and thermally compatible templates for vertical Al x Ga 1 − x N devices that can meet the growing power needs of a sustainable energy future. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved Decarbonization Planning through Climate Resiliency Modeling

California has set ambitious decarbonization goals concerning both emissions and the portion of energy generated by renewable resources. However, climate change poses considerable uncertainties. Variation in load is driven both by the level of electrification as well as the impact of climate change on weather. Further, climate change stands to make weather more variable, impacting not just load but generation from renewable resources. In this paper, we approach the issue of the impacts of climate change on decarbonization planning from two perspectives. First, we look at the range of decarbonization pathways through 8 pathways that account for differences in socioeconomic development, global emissions, and warming. Second, we develop a more robust way of ensuring the reliability of energy resources planning than the commonly used planning reserve margin. We show that the proposed method can save between 6 and 14 billion dollars in investment and maintenance costs and outline critical policy implications concerning the reliance of power plants for satisfying planning reliability requirements, including the potential retirement of dozens of peaker power plants.

Anderson, Osten P.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Behind-the-Meter Energy Storage and Generation in Support of Electrified Rental Car Centers

Electrification of rental car centers at major airports is expected to generate tens of MW in additional power loads. The magnitude of these loads poses challenges including high utility costs, expensive and lengthy distribution capacity upgrades, and disruptions to traditional operation. Behind-the-meter stationary battery storage and onsite photovoltaic generation offer a viable solution to these challenges without impacting the operation and business model of rental car companies, defined by minimal fleet inventory and short vehicle dwell time. Using data-driven syn-thetic charging loads for the rental car center at the Dallas/Fort Worth airport in the United States, we show that optimally-designed and controlled behind - the- meter resources can reduce the lifecycle cost of electrified rental centers by an average 41 % and reduce peak grid demand by 64 %, deferring the need for distribution upgrades or potentially avoiding it altogether.

battery storage↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power System Resilience Considering Hurricane Storms and Generator Step-up Transformers

Power system resilience describes the system’s ability to withstand and recover quickly from unexpected power outages due to extreme events. As society’s electrification continues at a rapid rate, it is imperative electric infrastructure is designed and operated with extra security. This work studies the impact of severe hurricane storms on the power system located along the United States’ Eastern Seaboard. Specific focus is designated to steady state system operation and loss of large generation step up power transformers. A series of phasor domain power system simulations are conducted to determine the critical point at which the system loses steady state operability. Additionally, active power load shedding and generator dispatching are studied as mitigation and recovery strategies. Results indicate generator dispatching as an effective proactive mitigation strategy and load shedding as an effective recovery strategy.

Liu, Yilu↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving Resiliency in Planning MW-Scale Medium and Heavy Duty EV Charging Stations Considering TSCOTS Optimization

Electrification of heavy-duty (HD) vehicles marks an important milestone and technical challenge in the electric vehicle (EV) industry and the public grid. However, implementing EV charging at this scale will necessitate that traditional truck stops be updated with EV charging infrastructure that could represent 10's of MW in electricity consumption. Furthermore, as the transportation sector is represented as critical infrastructure, supporting resiliency considerations in EV charging infrastructure will be critical. This paper proposes an optimization-based approach for optimally designing a MW-scale microgrid charging network. This approach transforms conventional designed truck stops into a reliable HDEV charging stations capable of overnight slow charging and 30-minute to 1 hour fast charging. Using a mixed-integer linear program formulation blending capacity planning and reliability constraints, an optimal network configuration can be solved for a proposed EV charging station that includes photovoltaic and battery energy storage capabilities.

Ponce, Moises [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Unified Design Theory for Multi-Port Polyphase Transformers Enabling Scalable Power-Multiplexed EV Fleet Charging Systems

This paper presents a unified analytical design theory for multi-port polyphase transformers, targeting scalable and isolated high-power Electric Vehicle (EV) fleet charging systems with power multiplexing capability. As fleet electrification accelerates, conventional one-to-one charger architectures face significant challenges in infrastructure cost, peak power demand, and low utilization of installed power electronics. Power-multiplexed charging architectures, which dynamically distribute power from a shared pool of converter modules across multiple vehicles, have emerged as a promising solution. However, such architectures require scalable, isolated multi-port power interfaces capable of routing energy among multiple inputs and outputs, whose design remains complex and dependent on iterative modeling. To address this gap, the proposed theory provides closed-form expressions for self-inductance, leakage inductance, and mutual coupling terms for arbitrary multi-phase, multi-port transformer structures. The formulation enables direct synthesis of isolated multi-input and multi-output resonant converter systems without reliance on geometry-specific finite-element analysis or extensive parameter extraction. This capability is particularly critical for power-multiplexed systems, where modular converter structures must interface with multiple vehicles while maintaining galvanic isolation and flexible power allocation. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated through the design of a 360 kW multi-phase system operating over a 700–900 VDC input and 400–1250 VDC output range. PLECS simulation results confirm accurate prediction of system behavior and validate the applicability of the approach to multi-port, power-multiplexed charging scenarios. The proposed method significantly reduces design complexity while enabling scalable, cost-effective, and fully utilized EV fleet charging infrastructure.

Asa, Erdem [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190884812)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Industrial Demand: Large, Elastic, and Concentrated [Guest Editorial]

Here, the future industrial demand on the grid is expected to be large, price sensitive, and concentrated. Grid industrial demand increasingly encompasses a new customer type defined as a large flexible load (LFL). This LFL type defines customers with consumption that responds quickly to price or other incentives without interrupting their core business process, such cryptocurrency mining. This customer type can often ramp up and down quickly, which across an entire industry can mean gigawatts of power within a few minutes. In addition to these price-sensitive loads, significant growth is also anticipated in sectors like manufacturing, data centers, and electrification of transportation and buildings.

Mukherjee, Srijib [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗

DOE OSTI2026

Operational Simulation of Multi-Functional Charging Station for Sustainable Transportation

As transportation systems move toward electrification and decarbonization, multifunctional charging stations (MFCS) are emerging as key infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). This paper presents a simulation model of an MFCS that integrates solar photovoltaic (PV), wind power, battery storage, hydrogen (\mathrm{H}_{2}) production, dual-pressure \mathrm{H}_{2} storage, fuel cells, and dynamic grid interactions. The model simulates daily operations using 5 -minute resolution data to capture realtime variability in renewable energy (RE), demand, and electricity prices. A flexible dispatch algorithm dynamically allocates energy for EV charging, \mathrm{H}_{2} production, storage, and grid transactions while respecting system constraints. Results show that the MFCS effectively prioritizes RE usage, minimizes waste, meets diverse energy demands, and achieves net operational profit. The model serves as a valuable decision-support tool for designing and optimizing integrated clean energy hubs for zero-emission transportation.

Gbadegoye, Jeremiah [University of Tennessee, Knox↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decarbonizing the US Energy System

Recent rapid and unexpected cost reductions in decarbonization technologies have accelerated the cost-effective decarbonization of the US economy, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions falling by 20% from 2005 to 2020. The literature on US economy-wide decarbonization focuses on maximizing long-term GHG emissions reduction strategies that rely mostly on renewable energy expansion, electrification, and efficiency improvements to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. While these studies provide a valuable foundation, further research is needed to properly support decarbonization policy development and implementation. In this review, we identify key decarbonization analysis gaps and opportunities, including issues related to cross-sectoral linkages, spatial and temporal granularity, consumer behavior, emerging technologies, equity and environmental justice, and political economy. We conclude by discussing the implications of these analysis gaps for US decarbonization pathways and how they relate to challenges facing major global emitters.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bipolar Membrane Capacitive Deionization for the Selective Capture of Lithium Ions from Brines and Conversion to Lithium Hydroxide

Meeting the increasing demand for lithium in vehicle electrification and renewable energy storage requires innovations in lithium-ion (Li + ) separations. Traditional solar evaporation methods for lithium recovery are slow and consume tremendous volumes of water and secondary chemicals (acids and bases). This study introduces a bipolar membrane capacitive deionization (BPM-CDI) unit for direct lithium extraction and LiOH production without the external addition of acids and bases. Utilizing de-lithiated lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) coated carbon cloth electrodes, the BPM-CDI unit demonstrates selective Li + capture over competing ions. Molecular dynamics simulations and H-cell experiments elucidate pH inversion mechanisms during Li + release, yielding LiOH. The BPM-CDI platform efficiently removes Li + from synthetic brines featuring 8x higher Mg 2+ concentrations (200 ppm Mg 2+ ) and 26x higher Na + concentrations (682 ppm Na + ), achieving a LiOH concentration of 124 ppm (36 ppm Li + ) after 8 cycles of recirculation. Post-mortem analysis confirms electrode integrity and stability. BPM-CDI integrated with selective electrodes is a promising electrochemical separation-reactor platform for lithium recovery while producing LiOH.

Kulkarni, Tanmay↗

DOE OSTI2025

LLUDA (Low-cost Logging for Ubiquitous Decarbonization and Analysis) [SWR-24-131]

This repository features an Arduino-based GPS logger, called LLUDA, which uses the Adafruit Ultimate GPS FeatherWing with the Adafruit Feather M0 Adalogger, designed to capture and log GPS data in CSV format onto an SD card (embedded inside the Feather M0 Adalogger). The FeatherWing is powered through the vehicle's auxiliary power (from cigarette lighter) socket via a micro USB cable. The data it collects can be used to analyze vehicle operations and support vehicle modeling applications, helping to assess the potential for electrification.

Fakhimi, Setayesh [National Renewable Energy Labor↗

DOE OSTI2025

VOLTTRON/volttron-pnnl-aems

The Autonomous Energy Management Software (AEMS) system will continuously optimize the operations of the distributed energy resources in the small and medium size commercial building by minimizing energy consumption and cost, while providing a solution for maximizing decarbonization benefits from electrification of buildings. Initially, AEMS system will manage rooftop air conditioners and heat pumps but it can be extended in the future to manage, hot water heaters, storage (battery and thermal), electric vehicle charging and monitoring solar photovoltaic. AEMS support both energy efficiency and grid service features.

Bleeker, Amelia [Pacific Northwest National Labora↗

DOE OSTI2025

Commercial Fleet Level Emissions and Energy Tracker (COFLEET) v1.0

This tool generates the latest US commercial vehicle fleet composition and operational characteristics using 2021 US VIUS data and assess the fleetwide energy and emission outcomes. The emission rates for commercial trucks and default fleet composition are collected from the U.S. EPA's MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES4). The 2021 US VIUS data is applied to generate fleet characteristics such as the long-haul fraction and the vehicle mileage accumulation rate. The tool also provides fleet turnover and emission forecasts under various forecasted fleet electrification scenarios. This tool helps policymakers and practitioners advance the commercial fleet generation for emission models. This study also provides some sample datasets for state and local transportation/air quality agencies to test, which can reduce the estimation bias associated with using MOVES default fleets.

Xu, Xiaodan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗

DOE OSTI2025

Convection-Permitting Ensembles of an Isolated Mountain Thunderstorm during RELAMPAGO/CACTI

Abstract The north–south-oriented Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) ridge in central Argentina is noted for initiating thunderstorms that may grow into intense mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). It also initiates more isolated, shorter-lived cells under weaker synoptic forcing. These cells are less impactful than MCSs but may be difficult to predict in convective-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) due to their strong sensitivities to subgrid and partially resolved processes. To study the mechanisms and predictability of such cells, convection-permitting ensemble simulations were conducted of an isolated, diurnally forced SDC thunderstorm during Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI)/Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO). The rich observational data facilitated detailed ensemble verification, where dry biases in the surface energy balance and soil moisture were identified. These biases promoted rapid removal of convective inhibition and an early onset of precipitating cells over the SDC that were shallower and weaker than the observed cell. Correction, and then overcorrection, of the soil moisture bias in two successive ensembles was required to rectify the surface energy balance and improve the representation of the SDC cell. Nevertheless, substantial ensemble variability in convective precipitation was found, with some members producing more widespread convection than observed and others producing no deep convection at all. This variability was largely explained by a combination of thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms, dominated by a positive sensitivity of convective precipitation to preconvective moist instability over the ridge. Secondary sensitivities were found to low-level upward mass flux and midlevel cross-barrier winds, the latter of which caused gravity waves with elevated downdrafts that tended to suppress incipient clouds.

Lopez, Andres [Department of Atmospheric and Ocean↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interactions Between Climate Policy and Technology-influenced Travel Behavior: Mitigating Induced Demand from CACC

Advances in vehicle technology have influenced the development of automated vehicle systems, where vehicles that do not require human intervention are already deployed in the roadway networks. While these advances are proved to increase roadway safety and highway capacity, more research is needed to understand the long-term and regional-level impacts on mobility, land use, energy consumption, and emissions. This study proposes a multi-model approach to analyze the effect of vehicle automation and deep decarbonization policies over a period from 2020 to 2040 in Austin, Texas. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to develop internally the scenarios that are then passed to the SMART Mobility modeling workflow, a large-scale simulation framework combining the POLARIS activity-based travel demand model and mesoscopic traffic simulator with the Autonomie vehicle energy consumption model and the UrbanSim land use simulator. Results suggest that the introduction of vehicles with advanced automation could increase fuel consumption when no decarbonization policies are implemented. Also, advances in vehicle technology research and development could lead to a decline in energy use in the long-term. Energy pricing and vehicle electrification incentives could help reduce the impact of vehicle automation. Finally, our analysis indicates the relevance of introducing land use processes in longterm vehicle automation studies.

land use↗

DOE OSTI2026

Using Machine Learning to Understand Electric and Hybrid Vehicles Ownership in Burdened and Nonburdened Communities

Transitioning to electric and hybrid vehicles (EHVs) for all communities is a pivotal step toward sustainable transportation and environmental conservation. This paper aims to understand the adoption of EHVs, focusing on burdened communities (BCs) in the United States. The EHV ownership-based analysis combines two datasets—behavioral data from the Puget Sound Regional Travel Survey integrated with BCs (Justice40) data covering transportation insecurity, environmental burden, social vulnerability, health vulnerability, and climate and disaster risk burden. After creating this unique database, descriptive analysis and modeling are used to analyze the data and predict EHV ownership in the future. Specifically, we use a new method that combines particle swarm optimization (PSO) with a stacking model named PSO-Stacking, which incorporates heterogeneous base learners of machine learning and deep learning. PSO applies a customized objective function to select the optimal hyperparameters for heterogeneous learners within the stacking model, effectively addressing challenges such as multicollinearity, data imbalance, nonlinearity, and overfitting. The proposed solution covers more accurate results than standard benchmark models for EHV ownership in BCs and non-BCs. In addition, the results of the PSO-Stacking method are explained using the local interpretable model-agnostic explanations technique. Results show a negative correlation between the BCs indicators, that is, higher transportation insecurity associated with lower EHV ownership. Furthermore, BCs have higher future climate risk scores, diesel particulate matter levels, and PM2.5 in the air than non-BCs because of higher conventional vehicle ownership. These communities are at higher risk and can benefit from electrification, EV infrastructure, and EV policies to address environmental challenges.

Aslam, Zeeshan [ORNL]↗