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2024 OES-Environmental 2024 State of the Science Report, Chapter 1: Marine Renewable Energy and Ocean Energy Systems-Environmental

For many countries, marine renewable energy (MRE) is the most recent entry into their renewable energy portfolio. MRE involves the generation of energy from the movement of seawater including tides, waves, and persistent ocean currents, as well as from the gradients of temperature and salinity in the oceans. Some countries also include energy generation from the open waters of large rivers as part of MRE. Each MRE resource requires a different type of device to harvest that energy, placed in the appropriate portion and depth of the ocean or large river and secured to the seabed either by weight or by anchors. At full scale, these devices are large; Figure 1.1 puts the size of these devices in the context of other technologies and well-known landmarks for scale. The MRE devices generally represent the largest devices available.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Thermal Cyclic Behavior of Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings Investigated Under High-Heat-Flux Conditions

Environmental barrier coatings (EBC's) have been developed to protect silicon-carbide- (SiC) based ceramic components in gas turbine engines from high-temperature environmental attack. With continuously increasing demands for significantly higher engine operating temperature, future EBC systems must be designed for both thermal and environmental protection of the engine components in combustion gases. In particular, the thermal barrier functions of EBC's become a necessity for reducing the engine-component thermal loads and chemical reaction rates, thus maintaining the required mechanical properties and durability of these components. Advances in the development of thermal and environmental barrier coatings (TBC's and EBC's, respectively) will directly impact the successful use of ceramic components in advanced engines. To develop high-performance coating systems, researchers must establish advanced test approaches. In this study, a laser high-heat-flux technique was employed to investigate the thermal cyclic behavior of TBC's and EBC's on SiC-reinforced SiC ceramic matrix composite substrates (SiC/SiC) under high thermal gradient and thermal cycling conditions. Because the laser heat flux test approach can monitor the coating's real-time thermal conductivity variations at high temperature, the coating thermal insulation performance, sintering, and delamination can all be obtained during thermal cycling tests. Plasma-sprayed yttria-stabilized zirconia (ZrO2-8 wt% Y2O3) thermal barrier and barium strontium aluminosilicate-based environmental barrier coatings (BSAS/BSAS+mullite/Si) on SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composites were investigated in this study. These coatings were laser tested in air under thermal gradients (the surface and interface temperatures were approximately 1482 and 1300 C, respectively). Some coating specimens were also subject to alternating furnace cycling (in a 90-percent water vapor environment at 1300 C) and laser thermal gradient cycling tests (in air), to investigate the water vapor effect. All cyclic tests were conducted using a 60-min hot-time temperature.

Zhu, Dongming↗

Development and Performance Evaluations of HfO2-Si and Rare Earth-Si Based Environmental Barrier Bond Coat Systems for SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites

Ceramic environmental barrier coatings (EBC) and SiCSiC ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) will play a crucial role in future aircraft propulsion systems because of their ability to significantly increase engine operating temperatures, improve component durability, reduce engine weight and cooling requirements. Advanced EBC systems for SiCSiC CMC turbine and combustor hot section components are currently being developed to meet future turbine engine emission and performance goals. One of the significant material development challenges for the high temperature CMC components is to develop prime-reliant, high strength and high temperature capable environmental barrier coating bond coat systems, since the current silicon bond coat cannot meet the advanced EBC-CMC temperature and stability requirements. In this paper, advanced NASA HfO2-Si based EBC bond coat systems for SiCSiC CMC combustor and turbine airfoil applications are investigated. The coating design approach and stability requirements are specifically emphasized, with the development and implementation focusing on Plasma Sprayed (PS) and Electron Beam-Physic Vapor Deposited (EB-PVD) coating systems and the composition optimizations. High temperature properties of the HfO2-Si based bond coat systems, including the strength, fracture toughness, creep resistance, and oxidation resistance were evaluated in the temperature range of 1200 to 1500 C. Thermal gradient heat flux low cycle fatigue and furnace cyclic oxidation durability tests were also performed at temperatures up to 1500 C. The coating strength improvements, degradation and failure modes of the environmental barrier coating bond coat systems on SiCSiC CMCs tested in simulated stress-environment interactions are briefly discussed and supported by modeling. The performance enhancements of the HfO2-Si bond coat systems with rare earth element dopants and rare earth-silicon based bond coats are also highlighted. The advanced bond coat systems, when integrated with advanced EBC top coats, showed promise to achieve 1500 C temperature capability, helping enable next generation turbine engines with significantly improved engine component temperature capability and long-term durability.

HfO2-Si bond coat↗

Conditional filamentation as an adaptive trait of bacteria and its ecological significance in soils

Bacteria can regulate cell morphology in response to environmental conditions, altering their physiological and metabolic characteristics to improve survival. Conditional filamentation, in which cells suspend division while continuing lateral growth, is a strategy with a range of adaptive benefits. Here, we review the causes and consequences of conditional filamentation with respect to bacterial physiology, ecology and evolution. We describe four major benefits from conditional filamentation: stress tolerance, surface colonization, gradient spanning and the facilitation of biotic interactions. Adopting a filamentous growth habit involves fitness trade-offs which are also examined. We focus on the role of conditional filamentation in soil habitats, where filamentous morphotypes are highly prevalent and where environmental heterogeneity can benefit a conditional response. Here, to illustrate the use of information presented in our review, we tested the conditions regulating filamentation by the forest soil isolate Paraburkholderia elongata 5N T . Filamentation by P. elongata was induced at elevated phosphate concentrations, and was associated with the accumulation of intracellular polyphosphate, highlighting the role of filamentation in a phosphate-solubilizing bacterium. Conditional filamentation enables bacteria to optimize their growth and metabolism in environments that are highly variable, a trait that can impact succession, symbioses, and biogeochemistry in soil environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Carbon content of soil fractions varies with season, rainfall, and soil fertility across a lowland tropical moist forest gradient

Tropical forests contain some of the largest soil carbon (C) stocks on Earth, making them broadly relevant to terrestrial-climate feedbacks, yet our understanding of how their soil organic C (SOC) fractions vary over space and time is limited. We studied effects of season, fertility, and mean annual precipitation (MAP) on the C contents of soil fractions across 14 lowland forests in Panama. We measured free-debris, occluded-debris, and mineral-associated SOC fractions, as well as soluble C associated with each fraction. We hypothesized that mineral-associated SOC would be greatest in infertile, strongly weathered soils with large reactive mineral contents. We also hypothesized that the debris SOC fractions would accumulate during the dry season, reflecting seasonal increases in litterfall. To address this, we compared soil fractions in wet and dry seasons from fertile and infertile soils across a range of 1809 – 2864 mm MAP. The C content (mg C / g soil) of all soil fractions varied with fertility and MAP: specifically, free-debris SOC was greatest in wet, high-fertility soils, and occluded-debris SOC was greater in high-fertility than low-fertility soils. The mineral-associated SOC fraction, which contained the majority of bulk soil C, showed increasing C content with greater MAP in infertile sites, presumably driving similar spatial patterns in the bulk soil. Only the free-debris SOC fraction showed strong seasonal variation, increasing in mass during the dry season. Nitrogen behaved similarly to C. In summary, soil C contents increased with MAP in infertile sites but not fertile sites, driven by the mineral-associated SOC fraction. The dry season had greater free-debris SOC, but this seasonal trend was not apparent in bulk soil C, likely because of the small size of the free-debris SOC fraction. Furthermore, changes in the quantity and seasonality of precipitation, which are projected for tropical forests, might shift spatial and temporal patterns of soil C storage, which would in turn influence forest-climate feedbacks for this C-rich biome.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Determination of Ce 3+ , Co 2+ , Mn 2+ and Fe 2+ diffusion coefficients in Nafion® membrane

Concentration gradient diffusion coefficients for Ce 3+ , Co 2+ , Mn 2+ and Fe 2+ cations are determined in Nafion®211 membranes over a wide range of environmental conditions. Measurements are made using finite-width cation-rich bands introduced to NR211 via a hot-pressing procedure. A robust method of accurate diffusion coefficient determination of the finite-width deposits is developed using a Fick's second law of diffusion solution for one-dimensional systems. The transition metal dications are found to have nearly identical NR211 diffusion coefficients under water saturated conditions over the 22–80 °C range. The powerful chemical mitigant, Ce 3+ , is about one-half as diffusive as the dications under identical conditions. Derived diffusion coefficients for Ce 3+ and Co 2+ are found to be independent of initial cation concentration over the range of 12.5–70 mol% exchange level. The diffusion behavior of Ce 3+ in 80 °C liquid water and saturated water vapor is identical. The diffusion coefficients of Ce 3+ are shown to have a strong dependence on membrane hydration level varying by a factor of more than 30 over the range of 95 to 40% RH. Finally, the implications of these new diffusion findings are applied to a discussion of potential guidelines for the development of highly durable fuel cell systems, which employ mobile metal cations as lifetime-extending redox stabilizers.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Leveraging Additive Manufacturing to Fabricate High Temperature Alloys With Co-Designed Mechanical Properties and Environmental Resistance

A paradigm shift in the traditional sequential design approaches is critically essential to create application-specific hierarchical and multifunctional materials with superior long-term performance for next-generation energy technologies involving extreme environments. In the current work, we aim to leverage the flexibility and geometric/compositional complexity offered by additive manufacturing to demonstrate this new approach by codesigning a compositionally graded Ni-based alloy for molten salts\sCO 2 heat exchangers to enable mitigation of environmental degradation of surfaces exposed to molten halide salts, while simultaneously suppressing the consequent deterioration in mechanical stability. Further, thermokinetic modeling describing the underlying physics of thermally- and environmentally induced spatiotemporal compositional and microstructural evolution will be employed to predict the parameter space of material deposition processes and precisely identify the required composition gradient. Preliminary corrosion and mechanical testing of the dual material demonstrated the potential of the material to replace existing solid solution strengthened materials for this application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Observations of Clouds, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Surface Radiation over the Southern Ocean: An Overview of CAPRICORN, MARCUS, MICRE, and SOCRATES

Weather and climate models are challenged by uncertainties and biases in simulating Southern Ocean (SO) radiative fluxes that trace to a poor understanding of cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiative processes, and their interactions. Projects between 2016 and 2018 used in situ probes, radar, lidar, and other instruments to make comprehensive measurements of thermodynamics, surface radiation, cloud, precipitation, aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particles over the SO cold waters, and in ubiquitous liquid and mixed-phase clouds common to this pristine environment. Data including soundings were collected from the NSF–NCAR G-V aircraft flying north–south gradients south of Tasmania, at Macquarie Island, and on the R/V Investigator and RSV Aurora Australis. Synergistically these data characterize boundary layer and free troposphere environmental properties, and represent the most comprehensive data of this type available south of the oceanic polar front, in the cold sector of SO cyclones, and across seasons. Results show largely pristine environments with numerous small and few large aerosols above cloud, suggesting new particle formation and limited long-range transport from continents, high variability in CCN and cloud droplet concentrations, and ubiquitous supercooled water in thin, multilayered clouds, often with small-scale generating cells near cloud top. These observations demonstrate how cloud properties depend on aerosols while highlighting the importance of dynamics and turbulence that likely drive heterogeneity of cloud phase. Satellite retrievals confirmed low clouds were responsible for radiation biases. Furthermore, the combination of models and observations is examining how aerosols and meteorology couple to control SO water and energy budgets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

WALLABY Pre-pilot Survey: The Effects of Tidal Interaction on Radial Distribution of Color in Galaxies of the Eridanus Supergroup

We study the tidal interaction of galaxies in the Eridanus supergroup, using H i data from the pre-pilot survey of the Widefield ASKAP L-band Legacy All-sky Blind surveY. We obtain optical photometric measurements and quantify the strength of tidal perturbation using a tidal parameter S sum . For low-mass galaxies of M * ≲ 10 9 M ⊙ , we find a dependence of decreasing H i to optical disk size ratio with increasing S sum , but no dependence of H i spectral line asymmetry with S sum . This is consistent with the behavior expected under tidal stripping. We confirm that the color profile shape and color gradient depend on the stellar mass, but there is an additional correlation of low-mass galaxies having their color gradients within 2R 50 increasing with higher S sum . For these low-mass galaxies, the dependence of color gradients on S sum is driven by the color becoming progressively redder in the inner disk when tidal perturbations are stronger. For high-mass galaxies, there is no dependence of color gradients on S sum , and we find a marginal reddening throughout the disks with increasing S sum . Our result highlights tidal interaction as an important environmental effect in producing the faint end of the star formation suppressed sequence in galaxy groups.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Assessing carbon storage capacity and saturation across six central US grasslands using data–model integration

Abstract. Future global changes will impact carbon (C) fluxes and pools in most terrestrial ecosystems and the feedback of terrestrial carbon cycling to atmospheric CO2. Determining the vulnerability of C in ecosystems to future environmental change is thus vital for targeted land management and policy. The C capacity of an ecosystem is a function of its C inputs (e.g., net primary productivity – NPP) and how long C remains in the system before being respired back to the atmosphere. The proportion of C capacity currently stored by an ecosystem (i.e., its C saturation) provides information about the potential for long-term C pools to be altered by environmental and land management regimes. We estimated C capacity, C saturation, NPP, and ecosystem C residence time in six US grasslands spanning temperature and precipitation gradients by integrating high temporal resolution C pool and flux data with a process-based C model. As expected, NPP across grasslands was strongly correlated with mean annual precipitation (MAP), yet C residence time was not related to MAP or mean annual temperature (MAT). We link soil temperature, soil moisture, and inherent C turnover rates (potentially due to microbial function and tissue quality) as determinants of carbon residence time. Overall, we found that intermediates between extremes in moisture and temperature had low C saturation, indicating that C in these grasslands may trend upwards and be buffered against global change impacts. Hot and dry grasslands had greatest C saturation due to both small C inputs through NPP and high C turnover rates during soil moisture conditions favorable for microbial activity. Additionally, leaching of soil C during monsoon events may lead to C loss. C saturation was also high in tallgrass prairie due to frequent fire that reduced inputs of aboveground plant material. Accordingly, we suggest that both hot, dry ecosystems and those frequently disturbed should be subject to careful land management and policy decisions to prevent losses of C stored in these systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mercury Speciation via Diffusive Gradients Thin-Films Technology

Objectives: Develop and test various diffusive gradient in thin films (DGT) samplers for mercury - SRNL is developing reactive DGTS (rDGTs). Test chemistry to differentiate methylmercury from total and/or inorganic mercury in environmental samples. Fabricate and test rDGT samplers for deployment. Deploy the rDGTs in variable settings. Mercury is a persistent-bioaccumulative-toxic environmental pollutant. Mercury exists in different species such as elemental, inorganic, and methyl. Mercury speciation determine mercury behavior and toxicity. For example, methylmercury strongly accumulates in biota such as fish resulting in potential human health impacts. DGTs are innovative samplers to measure water concentration by diffusion and capture. Types of Hg DGTs used: Total Hg, Inorganic Hg, and Methyl Hg. Deployment Sites: Upper Three Runs, Lower Three Runs, Steele Creek, East Fork Poplar Creek (SRNL Sites), Horizons Creek, NOA Creek, Bruners Creek (ORNL Sites). DGT concentration estimates closely matched alternative measurements for soluble mercury at each Oak Ridge site - DGTs did not respond to particulate mercury. DGTs provide a representative measure for biota uptake since they are left out longer which allows for an average exposure concentration. DMA-80 provided an efficient and quick analysis. Variability in site location made a difference in Hg species. DGT preparations and sampling wasn't as quick and simple as microcolumn technology. Copper reagent degraded agarose gel - more work and cleaner data are needed to assess speciation in rDGTs. Future Work: Use cross-linked polyacrylamide for the collection layer for a stronger plastic. Make a copper diffusion layer without agarose. Test copper separation in lab using realistic stream conditions such as high organic carbon.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Climate warming enhances biodiversity and stability of grassland soil phosphorus-cycling microbial communities

Abstract Climate warming poses significant challenges to global phosphorus sustainability, an essential component of Earth biogeochemistry cycling and water-food-energy nexus. Despite the crucial role of polyphosphate-accumulating organism as key functional microbial agents in phosphorus cycling, the impacts of global climate warming on polyphosphate accumulating organism communities remain largely enigmatic. This study investigates the effects of climate warming on the taxonomic, network, and functional profiles of soil bacterial polyphosphate-accumulating organisms, leveraging fluorescence-activated cell sorting and single-cell Raman spectroscopy. Climate warming enhances both taxonomic and functional biodiversity of polyphosphate-accumulating organisms via biotic interactions and environmental filtering, with observed functionality-biodiversity relationships supporting the functional redundancy theory. Furthermore, polyphosphate-accumulating organism network complexity and stability rise under warming with strengthened positive relationships, supporting stress gradient hypothesis and the belief that complexity begets stability. Finally, polyphosphate-accumulating organisms are significantly correlated to key ecosystem functioning in carbon and phosphorus cycling under warming. Our study suggests that preserving polyphosphate-accumulating organism communities is crucial for maintaining soil ecosystem functioning and sustainable phosphorus management in a warming world and opens avenues for predicting the responses of other functional microbial groups to climate change, beneficially or maliciously.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Evolution of Idealized Vortices in Monsoon-Like Shears: Application to Monsoon Depressions

Abstract This study examines processes fundamental to the development of South Asian monsoon depressions using an array of integrations of an idealized convection-permitting numerical model. In each integration, a wave of initially small amplitude is subjected to a different amount of vertical and meridional wind shear, with temperature and moisture fields constructed according to realistic constraints. Based on the evolution of this disturbance into monsoon depression–like vortices, two features of the background environment emerge as important: the low-level gradient of moist static energy (MSE) and the low-level meridional shear. As the low-level MSE gradient steepens, the disturbance becomes stronger and produces more rain. This strengthening results from the interaction of the vortex with latent heat release by convection that is in turn organized by positive MSE advection in the northerly flow west of the vortex. In this region of advection, moister air from the north ascends along upward-sloping isentropes, driving moist convection. The disturbance also becomes stronger with increasing meridional shear, which makes the environment more barotropically unstable. The absence of either of these two features of the background environment prevents substantial growth of the disturbance. Our results suggest that monsoon depression growth in South Asia is fostered by the coexistence of a strong low-level MSE gradient with strong meridional wind shear associated with the monsoon trough.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Role of Maritime Continent Land Convection on the Mean State and MJO Propagation

The Maritime Continent (MC) region is known as a ‘barrier’ in the life-cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). During boreal winter, the MJO detours the equatorial MC land region southward and propagates through the oceanic region. Also, about half of the MJO events that initiate over the Indian Ocean cease around the MC. The mechanism through which the MC affects MJO propagation, however, has remained unanswered. The current study investigates the MJO-MC interaction with a particular focus on the role of MC land convection. Using a global climate model that simulates both mean climate and MJO realistically, we performed two sensitivity experiments in which updraft plume radius is set to its maximum and minimum value only in the MC land grid points, making convective top deeper and shallower, respectively. In this work, our results show that MC land convection plays a key role in shaping the 3-D climatological moisture distribution around the MC through its local and non-local effects. Shallower and weaker MC land convection results in a steepening of the vertical and meridional mean moisture gradient over the MC region. The opposite is the case when MC land convection becomes deeper and stronger. The MJO’s eastward propagation is enhanced (suppressed) with the steeper (lower) mean moisture gradient. The moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MJO reveals the vertical and meridional advection of the mean MSE by MJO wind anomalies as the key processes that are responsible for the changes in MJO propagation characteristics. Our results pinpoint the critical role of the background moisture gradient on MJO propagation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ontology-Enriched Specifications Enabling Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable Marine Metagenomic Datasets in Cyberinfrastructure Systems

Marine microbial ecology requires the systematic comparison of biogeochemical and sequence data to analyze environmental influences on the distribution and variability of microbial communities. With ever-increasing quantities of metagenomic data, there is a growing need to make datasets Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) across diverse ecosystems. FAIR data is essential to developing analytical frameworks that integrate microbiological, genomic, ecological, oceanographic, and computational methods. Although community standards defining the minimal metadata required to accompany sequence data exist, they haven’t been consistently used across projects, precluding interoperability. Moreover, these data are not machine-actionable or discoverable by cyberinfrastructure systems. By making ‘omic and physicochemical datasets FAIR to machine systems, we can enable sequence data discovery and reuse based on machine-readable descriptions of environments or physicochemical gradients. In this work, we developed a novel technical specification for dataset encapsulation for the FAIR reuse of marine metagenomic and physicochemical datasets within cyberinfrastructure systems. This includes using Frictionless Data Packages enriched with terminology from environmental and life-science ontologies to annotate measured variables, their units, and the measurement devices used. This approach was implemented in Planet Microbe, a cyberinfrastructure platform and marine metagenomic web-portal. Here, we discuss the data properties built into the specification to make global ocean datasets FAIR within the Planet Microbe portal. We additionally discuss the selection of, and contributions to marine-science ontologies used within the specification. Finally, we use the system to discover data by which to answer various biological questions about environments, physicochemical gradients, and microbial communities in meta-analyses. This work represents a future direction in marine metagenomic research by proposing a specification for FAIR dataset encapsulation that, if adopted within cyberinfrastructure systems, would automate the discovery, exchange, and re-use of data needed to answer broader reaching questions than originally intended.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Multiphase Transport in Porous Media: Gas-Liquid Separation Using Capillary Pressure Gradients International Space Station (ISS) Flight Experiment Development

Advances in the understanding of multiphase flow characteristics under variable gravity conditions will ultimately lead to improved and as of yet unknown process designs for advanced space missions. Such novel processes will be of paramount importance to the success of future manned space exploration as we venture into our solar system and beyond. In addition, because of the ubiquitous nature and vital importance of biological and environmental processes involving airwater mixtures, knowledge gained about fundamental interactions and the governing properties of these mixtures will clearly benefit the quality of life here on our home planet. The techniques addressed in the current research involving multiphase transport in porous media and gas-liquid phase separation using capillary pressure gradients are also a logical candidate for a future International Space Station (ISS) flight experiment. Importantly, the novel and potentially very accurate Lattice-Boltzmann (LB) modeling of multiphase transport in porous media developed in this work offers significantly improved predictions of real world fluid physics phenomena, thereby promoting advanced process designs for both space and terrestrial applications.This 3-year research effort has culminated in the design and testing of a zero-g demonstration prototype. Both the hydrophilic (glass) and hydrophobic (Teflon) media Capillary Pressure Gradient (CPG) cartridges prepared during the second years work were evaluated. Results obtained from ground testing at 1-g were compared to those obtained at reduced gravities spanning Martian (13-g), Lunar (16-g) and zero-g. These comparisons clearly demonstrate the relative strength of the CPG phenomena and the efficacy of its application to meet NASAs unique gas-liquid separation (GLS) requirements in non-terrestrial environments.LB modeling software, developed concurrently with the zero-g test effort, was shown to accurately reproduce observed CPG driven gas-liquid separation phenomena. The design and fabrication of a micropost plate-lamina Hele-Shaw (HS) cell was performed which served as a computationally attainable geometric structure facilitating direct comparison between physical phenomena observed in our laboratory and the LB software predictions.

Wheeler, Richard R., Jr.↗

Local adaptation of switchgrass drives trait relations to yield and differential responses to climate and soil environments

Abstract Switchgrass, a potential biofuel crop, is a genetically diverse species with phenotypic plasticity enabling it to grow in a range of environments. Two primary divergent ecotypes, uplands and lowlands, exhibit trait combinations representative of acquisitive and conservative growth allocation strategies, respectively. Whether these ecotypes respond differently to various types of environmental drivers remains unclear but is crucial to understanding how switchgrass varieties will respond to climate change. We grew two upland, two lowland, and two intermediate/hybrid cultivars of switchgrass at three sites along a latitudinal gradient in the central United States. Over a 4‐year period, we measured plant functional traits and biomass yields and evaluated genotype‐by‐environment (G × E) interaction effects by analyzing switchgrass responses to soil and climate variables. We found substantial evidence of G × E interactions on biomass yield, primarily due to deviations in the response of the southern lowland cultivar Alamo, which produced more biomass in hotter and drier environments relative to other cultivars. While lowland cultivars had the highest potential for yield, their yields were more variable year‐to‐year compared to other cultivars, suggesting greater sensitivity to environmental perturbations. Models comparing soil and climate principal components as explanatory variables revealed soil properties, especially nutrients, to be most effective at predicting switchgrass biomass yield. Also, positive correlations between biomass yield and conservative plant traits, such as high stem mass and tiller height, became stronger at lower latitudes where the climate is hotter and drier, regardless of ecotype. Lowland cultivars, however, showed a greater predisposition to exhibit these conservative traits. These results suggest switchgrass trait allocation trade‐offs that prioritize aboveground biomass production are more tightly associated in hot, dry environments and that lowland cultivars may exhibit a more specialized strategy relative to other cultivars. Altogether, this research provides essential knowledge for improving the viability of switchgrass as a biofuel crop.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Simulated wildfire burned area over the CONUS during 2001-2020

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

Liu, Ye↗