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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1987

Sampling errors in satellite estimates of tropical rain

The GATE rainfall data set is used in a statistical study to estimate the sampling errors that might be expected for the type of snapshot sampling that a low earth-orbiting satellite makes. For averages over the entire 400-km square and for the duration of several weeks, strong evidence is found that sampling errors less than 10 percent can be expected in contributions from each of four rain rate categories which individually account for about one quarter of the total rain.

Mcconnell, Alan↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Uranian aurora and its relationship to the magnetosphere

About 32 h of Voyager Ultraviolet Spectrometer (UVS) observations of Uranus H2 band airglow emission (875 less than or equal to lambda less than or equal to 1115 A) have been analyzed using the singular value decomposition (SVD) approach to inversion, producing an intensity map showing aurora at both magnetic poles. An H Lyman alpha aurora may also be present but is difficult to separate from scattered solar and local interstellar medium components. SVD analysis of variance shows that the intensity estimate is significantly larger than the error estimate over both Uranographic poles and part of the equatorial region, fortuitously including both magnetic polar regions. The Goddard Space Flight Center Q(sub 3) magnetic field model correctly predicts that the aurora should be larger in area and emit more power at the weaker N magnetic pole than at the stronger S magnetic pole. However, the auroral emissions are quite localized in magnetic longitude and so do not form complete auroral ovals. The brightest auroral emission at each magnetic pole is confined to a range of approximately 90 deg of magnetic longitude centered on the magnetotail direction, at moderate magnetic L parameter (5 less than or equal to L less than or equal to 10), but some emission at each pole is distributed over a range of more than 180 deg of longitude. The magnetic longitudes of the aurora are completely inconsistent with the 'windshield wiper' effect for either ions or electrons, indicating that some other effect, such as rapid depletion of the population of precipitating particles of highly localized strong pitch-angle diffusion, may be acting to localize emission. The low apparent L of the precipitating particles indicates that their energies may be less than or equal to 10 keV. Hence magnetospheric convection is likely to be important, and thus particles exciting the aurora may not remain on constant L shells. The precipitating particles may be a relatively low-energy population at high L that is heated to aurora-exciting energy by adiabatic compression during convection to low L. We estimate that the total auroral power output at H Lyman alpha and shorter wavelengths is about 3 x 10(exp 9) to 7 x 10(exp 9) W, requiring about 10 times that much power for excitation.

Herbert, Floyd↗
NASA NTRS1999

Investigation of Point Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) for Transition Detection in Boundary Layers

A two component Point Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) system has been developed and tested. Improvements were made to an earlier PDV system, in terms of experimental techniques, as well as the data acquisition and reduction software. Measurements of the streamwise and spanwise mean and fluctuating velocities for flows from a rectangular channel and over an NACA 0012 airfoil were made, and the data were compared against hot wire data. The closest to the airfoil surface that PDV measurements could be made was on the order of 0.005 m(0.2", z/c = 0.0169). When the PDV and hot wire data were compared, the time traces for each appeared similar. The mean velocities agreed to within plus or minus 2 m/sec, while the RMS velocities agreed to plus or minus 0.4 m/sec. While the PDV time autocorrelations agreed with those of the hot wire data, the PDV power spectral densities were noisier above 750 Hz. A major source of error in these experiments was determined to be the drifting of the iodine cell stem temperatures. While the stem temperatures were controlled to within plus or minus 0.1 C, this could lead to a frequency shift of as much as 6 MHz, which translates into an error of 1.6 m/sec for the back scatter channel, and up to 6.9 m/sec for the forward scatter channel. These error estimates are consistent with the observed error magnitudes.

Kuhlman, John M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Adaptive Mesh Refinement for Microelectronic Device Design

Finite element and finite volume methods are used in a variety of design simulations when it is necessary to compute fields throughout regions that contain varying materials or geometry. Convergence of the simulation can be assessed by uniformly increasing the mesh density until an observable quantity stabilizes. Depending on the electrical size of the problem, uniform refinement of the mesh may be computationally infeasible due to memory limitations. Similarly, depending on the geometric complexity of the object being modeled, uniform refinement can be inefficient since regions that do not need refinement add to the computational expense. In either case, convergence to the correct (measured) solution is not guaranteed. Adaptive mesh refinement methods attempt to selectively refine the region of the mesh that is estimated to contain proportionally higher solution errors. The refinement may be obtained by decreasing the element size (h-refinement), by increasing the order of the element (p-refinement) or by a combination of the two (h-p refinement). A successful adaptive strategy refines the mesh to produce an accurate solution measured against the correct fields without undue computational expense. This is accomplished by the use of a) reliable a posteriori error estimates, b) hierarchal elements, and c) automatic adaptive mesh generation. Adaptive methods are also useful when problems with multi-scale field variations are encountered. These occur in active electronic devices that have thin doped layers and also when mixed physics is used in the calculation. The mesh needs to be fine at and near the thin layer to capture rapid field or charge variations, but can coarsen away from these layers where field variations smoothen and charge densities are uniform. This poster will present an adaptive mesh refinement package that runs on parallel computers and is applied to specific microelectronic device simulations. Passive sensors that operate in the infrared portion of the spectrum as well as active device simulations that model charge transport and Maxwell's equations will be presented.

Cwik, Tom↗
NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic Analysis and Density Parameter Estimation Within Nessus

This NASA educational grant has the goal of promoting probabilistic analysis methods to undergraduate and graduate UTSA engineering students. Two undergraduate-level and one graduate-level course were offered at UTSA providing a large number of students exposure to and experience in probabilistic techniques. The grant provided two research engineers from Southwest Research Institute the opportunity to teach these courses at UTSA, thereby exposing a large number of students to practical applications of probabilistic methods and state-of-the-art computational methods. In classroom activities, students were introduced to the NESSUS computer program, which embodies many algorithms in probabilistic simulation and reliability analysis. Because the NESSUS program is used at UTSA in both student research projects and selected courses, a student version of a NESSUS manual has been revised and improved, with additional example problems being added to expand the scope of the example application problems. This report documents two research accomplishments in the integration of a new sampling algorithm into NESSUS and in the testing of the new algorithm. The new Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) subroutines use the latest NESSUS input file format and specific files for writing output. The LHS subroutines are called out early in the program so that no unnecessary calculations are performed. Proper correlation between sets of multidimensional coordinates can be obtained by using NESSUS' LHS capabilities. Finally, two types of correlation are written to the appropriate output file. The program enhancement was tested by repeatedly estimating the mean, standard deviation, and 99th percentile of four different responses using Monte Carlo (MC) and LHS. These test cases, put forth by the Society of Automotive Engineers, are used to compare probabilistic methods. For all test cases, it is shown that LHS has a lower estimation error than MC when used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, and 99th percentile of the four responses at the 50 percent confidence level and using the same number of response evaluations for each method. In addition, LHS requires fewer calculations than MC in order to be 99.7 percent confident that a single mean, standard deviation, or 99th percentile estimate will be within at most 3 percent of the true value of the each parameter. Again, this is shown for all of the test cases studied. For that reason it can be said that NESSUS is an important reliability tool that has a variety of sound probabilistic methods a user can employ; furthermore, the newest LHS module is a valuable new enhancement of the program.

Godines, Cody R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Absolute Timing of the Crab Pulsar with RXTE

We have monitored the phase of the main X-ray pulse of the Crab pulsar with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) for almost eight years, since the start of the mission in January 1996. The absolute time of RXTE's clock is sufficiently accurate to allow this phase to be compared directly with the radio profile. Our monitoring observations of the pulsar took place bi-weekly (during the periods when it was at least 30 degrees from the Sun) and we correlated the data with radio timing ephemerides derived from observations made at Jodrell Bank. We have determined the phase of the X-ray main pulse for each observation with a typical error in the individual data points of 50 microseconds. The total ensemble is consistent with a phase that is constant over the monitoring period, with the X-ray pulse leading the radio pulse by 0.01025 plus or minus 0.00120 period in phase, or 344 plus or minus 40 microseconds in time. The error estimate is dominated by a systematic error of 40 microseconds, most likely constant, arising from uncertainties in the instrumental calibration of the radio data. The statistical error is 0.00015 period, or 5 microseconds. The separation of the main pulse and interpulse appears to be unchanging at time scales of a year or less, with an average value of 0.4001 plus or minus 0.0002 period. There is no apparent variation in these values with energy over the 2-30 keV range. The lag between the radio and X-ray pulses ma be constant in phase (i.e., rotational in nature) or constant in time (i.e., due to a pathlength difference). We are not (yet) able to distinguish between these two interpretations.

Rots, Arnold H.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Robust Controller Synthesis for Vision-based Spacecraft Guidance and Control

This work develops a method for Robust Controller for Vision-based Spacecraft (RCVS) guidance and control, integral to the robust autonomy framework for multi-spacecraft for- mation control and reconfiguration applications. The method is built around the use of a photo-realistic simulator, where a camera is deployed on a tracking spacecraft (ego) in order to observe an uncontrolled spacecraft (target) in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO). In this direction, the proposed approach performs the relative state (attitude and position) estimation of the target spacecraft using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). The state estimation error is then modeled and the corresponding error-bounds are obtained around a nominal trajectory of the ego and target spacecraft. Next, this work proposes a linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) based approach to controller synthesis, guaranteed to be robust against both model uncertainties and measurement errors, resulting from vision-based estimation. This controller is comprised of two distinct components, one synthesized based on the nominal trajectory, while the “robust” component corrects for deviations from the nominal trajectory. Finally, a tracking scenario that directly utilize the image data for spacecraft guidance and control, is presented to showcase the performance of the proposed robust autonomy framework.

Rahmani, Amir↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust Implicit Adaptive Low Rank Time-Stepping Methods for Matrix Differential Equations

In this work, we develop implicit rank-adaptive schemes for time-dependent matrix differential equations. The dynamic low rank approximation (DLRA) is a well-known technique to capture the dynamic low rank structure based on Dirac–Frenkel time-dependent variational principle. In recent years, it has attracted a lot of attention due to its wide applicability. Our schemes are inspired by the three-step procedure used in the rank adaptive version of the unconventional robust integrator (the so called BUG integrator) (Ceruti et al. in BIT Numer Math 62(4):1149–1174, 2022) for DLRA. First, a prediction (basis update) step is made computing the approximate column and row spaces at the next time level. Second, a Galerkin evolution step is invoked using an implicit solves for the small core matrix. Finally, a truncation is made according to a prescribed error threshold. Since the DLRA is evolving the differential equation projected on to the tangent space of the low rank manifold, the error estimate of the BUG integrator contains the tangent projection (modeling) error which cannot be easily controlled by mesh refinement. This can cause convergence issue for equations with cross terms. To address this issue, we propose a simple modification, consisting of merging the row and column spaces from the explicit step truncation method together with the BUG spaces in the prediction step. In addition, we propose an adaptive strategy where the BUG spaces are only computed if the residual for the solution obtained from the prediction space by explicit step truncation method, is too large. Here, we prove stability and estimate the local truncation error of the schemes under assumptions. We benchmark the schemes in several tests, such as anisotropic diffusion, solid body rotation and the combination of the two, to show robust convergence properties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2003

Estimates of Random Error in Satellite Rainfall Averages

Satellite rain estimates are most accurate when obtained with microwave instruments on low earth-orbiting satellites. Estimation of daily or monthly total areal rainfall, typically of interest to hydrologists and climate researchers, is made difficult, however, by the relatively poor coverage generally available from such satellites. Intermittent coverage by the satellites leads to random "sampling error" in the satellite products. The inexact information about hydrometeors inferred from microwave data also leads to random "retrieval errors" in the rain estimates. In this talk we will review approaches to quantitative estimation of the sampling error in area/time averages of satellite rain retrievals using ground-based observations, and methods of estimating rms random error, both sampling and retrieval, in averages using satellite measurements themselves.

Bell, Thomas L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Canonical Ensemble Correlation Prediction Model for Seasonal Precipitation Anomaly

This report describes an optimal ensemble forecasting model for seasonal precipitation and its error estimation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. This new CCA model includes the following features: (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Relationship Between Two Methods for Estimating Uncertainties in Data Assimilation

This note examines the relationship between two apparently unrelated methods for estimating error statistics or uncertainties of relevance to data assimilation. The first method is due to (Desroziers et al., 2005, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 3385–3396; referred to as DBCP hereafter) and relies on residual statistics readily available from data assimilation applications. The second method, the three- cornered hat (3CH) developed by Gray and Allan (1974, IEEE 28th Annual Symp. Freq. Control, 243–246), only recently applied to atmospheric sciences, uses three data sets and can derive estimates of relevant error uncertainties as well. The usefulness of both methods lies in them not requiring knowledge of the true value of the quantities at play. DBCP derives its results by relying explicitly on the constraints as- sociated with the data assimilation minimization problem; 3CH is general and its estimates hold as long as errors in the three data sets of choice are uncorrelated. Establishing the relationship between the methods requires applying the 3CH approach to the same observation, background, and analysis data sets used by DBCP. In this case, the same assumptions of DBCP on residual errors allow for cancellation of error cross–covariance terms in 3CH such that two of its corners derive identical estimates for observation and background error covariances as those of DBCP. The error cross–covariance terms associated with the third corner are shown to add up to twice the analysis error covariance so that the 3CH estimate for the third corner recovers the negative of the analysis error covariance. Illustrations of these findings are provided by deriving uncertainties for radio occultation bending angles.

Ricardo Todling↗
NASA NTRS2022

How Well do Multisatellite Products Capture the Space-Time Dynamics of Precipitation? Part II: Building an Error Model Through Spectral System Identification

Satellite precipitation products, as all quantitative estimates, come with some inherent degree of uncertainty. To associate a quantitative value of the uncertainty to each individual estimate, error modeling is necessary. Most of the error models proposed so far compute the uncertainty as a function of precipitation intensity only, and only at one specific spatio-temporal scale. We propose a spectral error model which accounts for the neighboring space-time dynamics of precipitation into the uncertainty quantification. Systematic distortions of the precipitation signal and random errors are characterized distinctively in every frequency-wavenumber band in the Fourier domain, to accurately characterize error across scales. The systematic distortions are represented as a deterministic space-time linear filtering term. The random errors are represented as a non-stationary additive noise. The spectral error model is applied to the IMERG multi satellite precipitation product and its parameters are estimated empirically through a system identification approach using the GV-MRMS gauge-radar measurements as reference (“truth”) over the eastern United States. The filtering term is found to be essentially low-pass. While traditional error models attribute most of the error variance to random errors, it is found here that the systematic filtering term explains 48% of the error variance at the native resolution of IMERG. This fact confirms that, at high resolution, filtering effects in satellite precipitation products cannot be ignored, and that the error cannot be represented as a purely random additive or multiplicative term. An important consequence is that precipitation estimates derived from totally different sources shall not be expected to automatically have statistically independent errors.

Precipitation↗
NASA NTRS1989

Figure control concepts for segmented reflector telescopes

Control analysis activities related to the development of figure control technologies for large space telescopes with precision segmented actively controlled primary reflectors are reviewed. The Precision Segmented Reflector (PSR) configuration is described along with the development and use of the PSR models. Geometric and dynamic models, characterization of figure estimation errors and optimal sensor placement, and the development of quasi-static and dynamic control concepts are outlined. The structure of a quasi-static controller is presented, that utilizes edge sensor measurements to estimate displacement errors at the actuator level and generates figure correction commands. The second approach considers decentralization of the reflector system at the panel level, while the third considers decentralization at the actuator level.

Boussalis, D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Logical shadow tomography: Efficient estimation of error-mitigated observables

We introduce a technique to estimate error-mitigated expectation values on noisy quantum computers. Our technique performs shadow tomography on a logical state to produce a memory-efficient classical reconstruction of the noisy density matrix. Using efficient classical post-processing, one can mitigate errors by projecting into the codespace as in subspace expansion and taking powers of the density matrix as in virtual distillation. Relative to subspace expansion which requires Ω (2^((n-1)k) samples to estimate a Pauli observable with an [[n; k]] stabilizer code, our technique requires only Ө(2^k) samples. Relative to virtual distillation, our technique can compute powers of the density matrix without implementing additional copies of quantum states the quantum computer. We present numerical results using logical states encoded with up to sixty physical qubits and show fast convergence to error-free expectation values with only 10^5 samples under 1% depolarizing noise.

quantum computing↗
NASA NTRS1974

Gravity results from Pioneer 10 Doppler data

Two-way Doppler data received from Pioneer 10 during its encounter with Jupiter have been analyzed, and preliminary results have been obtained on the mass and the gravity field of Jupiter and on the masses of the four Galilean satellites. The ratios of the masses of the satellites to the mass of Jupiter are approximately 0.00004696 for Io, 0.00002565 for Europa, 0.00007845 for Ganymede, and 0.00005603 for Callisto (all error estimates presented in this paper are standard errors; those for Pioneer 10 represent our evaluation of the real errors as distinguished from formal errors). The ratio of the mass of the sun to the mass of the Jupiter system is about 1047.342, which is in good agreement with recent determinations from the motions of asteroids. The second- and fourth-degree zonal harmonic coefficients in the gravity field of Jupiter are 0.014720 and -0.00065, respectively, based on an equatorial planetary radius of 71,400 km, and the derived dynamical oblateness is 0.0647 at the same radius. The Pioneer 10 data are consistent with the assumption that Jupiter is in hydrostatic equilibrium at all levels.

Anderson, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1981

AgRISTARS. Preliminary technical results review of FY81 experiments, volume 2: Fiscal year 1981/1982 "corn and soybeans pilot" experiment

The performance of the technology exhibited significant proportion estimation errors, specifically, high mean error in both corn and soybeans area estimation. The data systems, technical approaches, and data assessment of the pilot experiment were reviewed. Results of proportion estimations procedure performance evaluations, and sensitivity evaluations are presented. The role of the pilot experiment in foreign technology development is discussed.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1993

Advanced adaptive computational methods for Navier-Stokes simulations in rotorcraft aerodynamics

A phase 2 research and development effort was conducted in area transonic, compressible, inviscid flows with an ultimate goal of numerically modeling complex flows inherent in advanced helicopter blade designs. The algorithms and methodologies therefore are classified as adaptive methods, which are error estimation techniques for approximating the local numerical error, and automatically refine or unrefine the mesh so as to deliver a given level of accuracy. The result is a scheme which attempts to produce the best possible results with the least number of grid points, degrees of freedom, and operations. These types of schemes automatically locate and resolve shocks, shear layers, and other flow details to an accuracy level specified by the user of the code. The phase 1 work involved a feasibility study of h-adaptive methods for steady viscous flows, with emphasis on accurate simulation of vortex initiation, migration, and interaction. Phase 2 effort focused on extending these algorithms and methodologies to a three-dimensional topology.

Stowers, S. T.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Assessment of the 60 Km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) with Near Real-Time Aircraft Reports

NASA is developing the Center-TBACON Advisory System (CTAS), a set of Air Traffic Management (ATM) Decision Support Tools (DST) to enable controllers to increase airspace capacity and flight efficiency. A crucial component of the CTAS, or any ATM DST, is the computation of the time-of-flight of aircraft along flight path segments which requires accurate knowledge of the wind through which the aircraft are flying. CTAS currently uses wind information from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC), a numerical prediction model run operationally by the National Weather Service (NWS) National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). There exists near real-time wind observations from commercial aircraft that can be used to increase the accuracy of the RUC wind forecasts via the FAA Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) Terminal Winds (TW) algorithm. This report presents a study based on the application of the ITWS TW algorithm as an improvement to the baseline RUC product. Terminal Winds generally does not support the full Center airspace; the domain of the prototype MIT/LLITWS TW system was increased to cover the Denver Center airspace to support this study. This study has three goals: 1) determine the errors in the baseline 60-kilometer resolution RUC forecast wind fields relative to the needs of en route DSTs such as CTAS; 2) determine the benefit of using the TW algorithm to refine the RUC forecast wind fields with near real-tlme Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System (MDCRS) aircraft reports, and 3) identify factors that influence wind field errors in order to improve accuracy and estimate errors in real time. The data for this study were collected over a one-year period for the Denver Center airspace and over one miIlion verification observations were used. This study is part of a larger effort funded by NASA which includes the NOAA/FSL.

Cole, R. E.↗