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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Estimation of the Dose and Dose Rate Effectiveness Factor

Current models to estimate radiation risk use the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort that received high doses and high dose rates of radiation. Transferring risks from these high dose rates to the low doses and dose rates received by astronauts in space is a source of uncertainty in our risk calculations. The solid cancer models recommended by BEIR VII [1], UNSCEAR [2], and Preston et al [3] is fitted adequately by a linear dose response model, which implies that low doses and dose rates would be estimated the same as high doses and dose rates. However animal and cell experiments imply there should be curvature in the dose response curve for tumor induction. Furthermore animal experiments that directly compare acute to chronic exposures show lower increases in tumor induction than acute exposures. A dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) has been estimated and applied to transfer risks from the high doses and dose rates of the LSS cohort to low doses and dose rates such as from missions in space. The BEIR VII committee [1] combined DDREF estimates using the LSS cohort and animal experiments using Bayesian methods for their recommendation for a DDREF value of 1.5 with uncertainty. We reexamined the animal data considered by BEIR VII and included more animal data and human chromosome aberration data to improve the estimate for DDREF. Several experiments chosen by BEIR VII were deemed inappropriate for application to human risk models of solid cancer risk. Animal tumor experiments performed by Ullrich et al [4], Alpen et al [5], and Grahn et al [6] were analyzed to estimate the DDREF. Human chromosome aberration experiments performed on a sample of astronauts within NASA were also available to estimate the DDREF. The LSS cohort results reported by BEIR VII were combined with the new radiobiology results using Bayesian methods.

Chappell, L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Estimating Snow Water Storage in North America Using CLM4, DART, and Snow Radiance Data Assimilation

This paper addresses continental-scale snow estimates in North America using a recently developed snow radiance assimilation (RA) system. A series of RA experiments with the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter are conducted by assimilating the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) brightness temperature T(sub B) at 18.7- and 36.5-GHz vertical polarization channels. The overall RA performance in estimating snow depth for North America is improved by simultaneously updating the Community Land Model, version 4 (CLM4), snow/soil states and radiative transfer model (RTM) parameters involved in predicting T(sub B) based on their correlations with the prior T(sub B) (i.e., rule-based RA), although degradations are also observed. The RA system exhibits a more mixed performance for snow cover fraction estimates. Compared to the open-loop run (0.171m RMSE), the overall snow depth estimates are improved by 1.6% (0.168m RMSE) in the rule-based RA whereas the default RA (without a rule) results in a degradation of 3.6% (0.177mRMSE). Significant improvement of the snow depth estimates in the rule-based RA as observed for tundra snow class (11.5%, p < 0.05) and bare soil land-cover type (13.5%, p < 0.05). However, the overall improvement is not significant (p = 0.135) because snow estimates are degraded or marginally improved for other snow classes and land covers, especially the taiga snow class and forest land cover (7.1% and 7.3% degradations, respectively). The current RA system needs to be further refined to enhance snow estimates for various snow types and forested regions.

snow depth↗
NASA NTRS2017

New Data-Driven Estimation of Terrestrial CO2 Fluxes in Asia Using a Standardized Database of Eddy Covariance Measurements, Remote Sensing Data, and Support Vector Regression

The lack of a standardized database of eddy covariance observations has been an obstacle for data-driven estimation of terrestrial carbon dioxide fluxes in Asia. In this study, we developed such a standardized database using 54 sites from various databases by applying consistent postprocessing for data-driven estimation of gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE). Data-driven estimation was conducted by using a machine learning algorithm: support vector regression (SVR), with remote sensing data for 2000 to 2015 period. Site-level evaluation of the estimated carbon dioxide fluxes shows that although performance varies in different vegetation and climate classifications, GPP and NEE at 8 days are reproduced (e.g., r (exp 2) =0.73 and 0.42 for 8 day GPP and NEE). Evaluation of spatially estimated GPP with Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 sensor-based Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence shows that monthly GPP variations at subcontinental scale were reproduced by SVR (r (exp 2)=1.00, 0.94, 0.91, and 0.89 for Siberia, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, respectively). Evaluation of spatially estimated NEE with net atmosphere-land carbon dioxide fluxes of Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) Level 4A product shows that monthly variations of these data were consistent in Siberia and East Asia; meanwhile, inconsistency was found in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Furthermore, differences in the land carbon dioxide fluxes from SVR-NEE and GOSAT Level 4A were partially explained by accounting for the differences in the definition of land carbon dioxide fluxes. These data-driven estimates can provide a new opportunity to assess carbon dioxide fluxes in Asia and evaluate and constrain terrestrial ecosystem models.

chlorophyll fluorescence↗
NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty of Observation Impact Estimation in an Adjoint Model Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Adjoint models are often used to estimate the impact of different observations on short-term forecast skill. A common difficulty with the evaluation of short term forecast quality is the choice of verification fields. The use of self-analysis fields for verification is typical but incestuous, and introduces uncertainty due to biases and errors in the analysis field. In this study, an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is used to explore the uncertainty in adjoint model estimations of observation impact. The availability of the true state for verification in the OSSE framework in the form of the Nature Run allows calculation of the observation impact without the uncertainties present in self-analysis verification. These impact estimates are compared to estimates calculated using self-analysis verification. The Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) forecast model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) is used with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) OSSE capability. The adjoint model includes moist processes, with total wet energy selected as the norm for evaluation of observation impacts. The results show that there are measurable but small discrepancies in the adjoint model estimation of observation impact. In general, observations of temperature and winds tend to have overestimated impacts with self-analysis verification, while observations of humidity and moisture-affected observations tend to have underestimated impacts. The small magnitude of the differences in impact estimates supports the robustness of the adjoint method of estimating observation impacts.

N C Prive↗
NASA NTRS2020

Impact of Gauge-Based Precipitation Corrections on the Skill of SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Estimates

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission provides observations of L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave brightness temperature (Tb) observations at a resolution of ~40 km globally every 2-3 days. These observations are routinely assimilated into the NASA Catchment land surface model to generate the Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, which provides global estimates of surface and root-zone soil moisture, soil temperature, and surface fluxes (among others) at 9-km, 3-hourly resolution with ~2.5-day latency. The Catchment land surface model in the L4_SM algorithm is driven with 0.25°, hourly surface meteorological forcing data from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) "forward-processing" product. Outside of Africa and the high latitudes, the GEOS precipitation forcing is corrected using the Climate Prediction Center Unified (CPCU) gauge-based, 0.5°, daily precipitation product.Soil moisture estimates from the L4_SM product were previously shown to improve over land model-only estimates that do not benefit from the assimilation of Tb observations, thereby demonstrating the value of assimilating SMAP observations for soil moisture estimation. In this presentation, we further isolate the contribution of the gauge-based precipitation corrections to the skill of the L4_SM soil moisture estimates. Specifically, we compare the skill of the L4_SM soil moisture to that of separate model-only and assimilation estimates obtained without the benefit of the gauge-based precipitation corrections.Preliminary results suggest that the soil moisture skill added by the CPCU-based precipitation corrections primarily depends on the quality of the CPCU precipitation product and is greatest in regions where the CPCU gauge network is dense and reliable. Conversely, in regions where the CPCU product is known to be of poor quality, for example in central Australia, the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations provides the most benefit. The presentation will provide an in-depth evaluation of the soil moisture skill of the model-only and assimilation estimates vs. independent in situ and satellite measurements.

Reichle, Rolf↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Real-Time State Estimation of Structural Modes for an Aeroelastic Wind Tunnel Model

A method is presented for estimating displacements, velocities, and accelerations of structural modes in generalized coordinates from measured sensor data in real time. Specifically, strain data from conventional strain gauges and fiber optic strain sensors (FOSS) were combined with the strain modes (obtained from a finite element model) in a least-squares estimator to produce structural mode displacement estimates and uncertainties. Likewise, accelerometer data were combined with displacement mode shapes in a second least-squares estimator to produce structural mode acceleration estimates. A Kalman filter was then used to refine the displacement estimates and obtain velocity estimates. The method was applied to the half-span wind tunnel test article used in the NASA-Boeing collaboration called the Integrated Adaptive Wing Technology Maturation (IAWTM) project. The technique was found to be useful for real-time control and system identification applications.

Jared A. Grauer↗
NASA NTRS2019

ASCot, the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool Suite: expanding our estimation horizons

The NASA Analogy Software Costing Tool Suite (ASCoT) consists of a cluster-based analogy estimator for estimating software development effort, a K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) analogy estimator for estimating effort and delivered lines of code, a simple regression-based cost estimating relationship (CER) model that estimates cost in dollars, and a probabilistic version of COCOMO II. In this paper we document the analogy algorithms as well as summarize the results of the performance of the KNN and the principle components (PCA) cluster analogy models. KNN performance is assessed by varying the number of inputs and number of neighbors. Four different clustering methods: K-means, Spectral Clustering, Hierarchical Clustering, and Principle Components Analysis (PCA), and their respective evaluation criterion are described in detail. The comparative performance of all four estimation models is assessed using magnitude of relative error (MRE) measurements.

Menzies, Tim↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Limitations to Biomass Estimation for FAV Using NDVI Analysis of Satellite Acquisitions

The distribution and standing biomass (mass per unit area) of Floating Aquatic Vegetation (FAV)provide assessment metrics for productivity of vegetative communities. Remote sensing acquisition data has been used to estimate standing biomass in various ecosystems using vegetation indices, particularly the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), comparing the relative strength of radiation absorbance and reflectance of vegetation in specific wavebands. Obstacles to estimating vegetation biomass using NDVI reported are related to diversity of the vegetation community and high-density saturation. We evaluate the potential for using NDVI derived estimates for FAV biomass in the California Delta by focusing on patches of predominantly single species and compare biomass estimates for specific patches with measurement of total biomass and partitioning within the vegetation canopy. Using Landsat satellite acquisitions, biomass estimates are made for individual pixels and vegetation samples were collected from those same pixels. Focus on patches of predominantly single FAV species resulted in successful estimation of standing biomass beyond that previously reported in other ecosystems. A saturation response for the estimations was observed, however, with a much higher threshold high than previously reported for diverse population aquatic ecosystems. We discuss the likely cause for the saturation phenomenon and potential improvement utilizing altered spectral indices possible with higher spectral resolution from satellites carrying higher waveband multispectral and hyperspectral instruments.

Biomass↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Methods for Estimating Propeller Source Noise Spheres

In this work, several neural network function approximations are compared for inter- polating, storing, and sampling acoustic source spheres with applications to propeller noise estimation. These methods are compared using an acoustic model of the three bladed GL-10 propeller at different flight conditions, with training data generated using NASA’s ANOPP-PAS module. The source spheres used to train the networks capture the tonal propeller noise due to both the blade thickness and loading. This tonal noise prediction method allows the vehicle noise to be estimated for auralization and acoustic control. Three radial basis function neural network architectures are compared in this work. The first two networks directly estimate the parameters of the source sphere at different flight conditions but differ in the number of layers used. The third network estimates the parameters of the source sphere using a weighted combination of spherical basis functions. These networks are trained on numerically generated source spheres, with operating points given in terms of the propeller rotation rate, freestream speed, and propeller angle of attack. The performance of the neural network is determined using a validation dataset of withheld data points. This performance is quantified in terms of the approximation error, training time, and sample time. The third network, which estimates the weights of the spherical basis functions, performs the best in both average and maximum approximation errors in all cases. This network’s worst case performance is 5.6 % relative dif- ference of a model parameter associated with acoustic pressure. The direct estimation network with a single layer has the worst approximation error in all cases. Additionally, the spherically defined network has the slowest sample time at 0.05 seconds per thousand points. Both direct estimation methods produce a thousand sample points in approximately 0.001 seconds.

Acoustics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Novel Machine Learning Method for Surface PM2.5 Estimations from Geostationary Satellites

Particulate matter (PM) with a diameter of less or equal to 2.5 μm, known as PM , affects human health as it penetrates the respiratory system. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) measures the atmospheric concentration of PM using air quality monitors stationed throughout the Continental United States (CONUS). Such measurements are points on a spatial domain and therefore, might not be representative of the air quality at nearby areas considering that the composition of the atmosphere is highly variable from place to place. Satellite based AOD permits a spatially uniform means of estimating PM and new geostationary satellites provide high temporal and spatial resolution estimation of AOD. However, the concentration of PM is non-linearly dependent on other atmospheric parameters that include relative humidity, temperature, and height of the planetary boundary layer. This information may be estimated at similar spatial and temporal resolutions as AOD from numerical modeling such as from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model which resolves near real-time atmospheric conditions over the CONUS. The estimation of PM concentration is a multi-parametric problem that considers the effect of temporal dependencies among the different parameters. Deep learning approaches are appropriate for such complex estimation problems as they intrinsically capture relations among multiple non-linear parameters. This study compares deep-learning methods to traditional regression analysis to demonstrate the capabilities of these methods in predicting PM2.5 concentrations. Additionally, a novel ensemble learning approach is employed to identify scientific processes that could further improve the estimation of PM concentration. Utilizing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which are suitable for multivariate time series estimation problems as they are capable of learning long-term dependencies, individual models are created for each EPA station and trained on the aforementioned dataset collocated over each station. Individual station models are merged if the model's performance is improved by reducing the root mean squared error (RMSE) metric. This ensemble training method ultimately reduces the RMSE value. Evaluation of these results provide insights into physical processes and related observable parameters that may contribute to PM concentrations. Identified parameters evaluated to be statistically different between the merged and unmerged models are expected to improve overall performance. These new parameters are then utilized for reevaluation of the deep learning methods with an extreme gradient boosting model with an RMSE of 5.5 providing the best results.

George Priftis↗
NASA NTRS2021

Comprehensive Comparison of Airborne and Spaceborne SAR and LiDAR Estimates of Forest Structure in the Tallest Mangrove Forest on Earth

A recent suite of new global-scale satellite sensors and regional-scale airborne campaigns are providing a wealth of remote sensing data capable of dramatically advancing our current understanding of the spatial distribution of forest structure and carbon stocks. However, a baseline for forest stature and biomass estimates has yet to be established for the wide array of available remote sensing products. At present, it remains unclear how the estimates from these sensors compare to one another in terrestrial forests, with a clear dearth of studies in high carbon density mangrove ecosystems. In the tallest mangrove forest on Earth (Pongara National Park, Gabon), we leverage the data collected during the AfriSAR campaign to evaluate 17 state-of-the-art sensor data products across the full range of height and biomass known to exist globally in mangrove forest ecosystems, providing a much-needed baseline for sensor performance. Our major findings are: (Houghton, Hall, Goetz) height estimates are not consistent across products, with opposing trends in relative and absolute errors, highlighting the need for an adaptive approach to constraining height estimates (Panet al., 2011); radar height estimates had the lowest calibration error and bias, with further improvements using LiDAR fusion (Bonan, 2008); biomass variability and uncertainty strongly depends on forest stature, with variation across products increasing with canopy height, while relative biomass variation was highest in low-stature stands (Le Quéréet al., 2017); a remote sensing product's sensitivity to variations in canopy structure is more important than the absolute accuracy of height estimates (Mitchardet al., 2014); locally-calibrated area-wide totals are more representative than generalized global biomass models for high-precision biomass estimates. The findings presented here provide critical baseline expectations for height and biomass predictions across the full range of mangrove forest stature, which can be directly applied to current (TanDEM-X, GEDI, ICESat-2) and future (NISAR, BIOMASS) global-scale forest monitoring missions.

Atticus E.L. Stovall↗
NASA NTRS2021

Estimation of Snow Mass Information via Assimilation of C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar Backscatter Observations Into an Advanced and Surface Model

This study assimilated Sentinel-1 C-band backscatter observations over snow-covered terrain into the Noah-Multiparameterization land surface model using support vector machine (SVM) regression and an ensemble Kalman filter to improve the modeled terrestrial snow mass estimates. The data assimilation (DA) experiment was conducted across Western Colorado from September 2016 to August 2017. As part of the DA experiments, the impact of a rule-based update was evaluated by comparing snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates via DA (with [ DAv1 ] and without [ DAv2 ] the rule-based update) against SNOTEL SWE measurements. Results confirmed that rule-based update helped minimize SVM controllability issues, and in turn, improved the accuracy of SWE estimates relative to both open loop (OL) and DAv2 . Comparison of SWE estimates from Sentinel-1 DAv1 against SNOTEL SWE revealed that 75% of stations showed improvements in bias and correlation coefficient relative to the OL. Assimilated SWE estimates also showed statistical improvements during both the snow accumulation and snow ablation periods. However, unbiased root mean square error showed a slight increase during the snow ablation period due to the large variability in the electromagnetic response of C-band backscatter over deep and/or wet snow. Improvement of the SWE estimates also resulted in improving river discharge estimates compared to in situ measurements. River discharge using Sentinel-1 DAv1 improved the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency at all available stations. These results suggest that physically constrained SVM can serve as an efficient observation operator for snow mass DA through explicit consideration of the first-order C-band scattering mechanisms over different terrestrial snow conditions.

Jongmin Park↗
NASA NTRS2023

Towards Soil Moisture Profile Estimation in the Root Zone Using L- and P-Band Radiometer Observations: A Coherent Modelling Approach

Precision irrigation management and crop water stress assessment rely on accurate estimation of root zone soil moisture. However, only the top 5cm soil moisture can be estimated using the two current passive microwave satellite missions, Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), which operate at L-band (wavelength of ~21cm). Since the contributing depth of the soil to brightness temperature increases with observation wavelength, it is expected that a P-band (wavelength of ~40cm) radiometer could potentially provide soil moisture information from deeper layers of the soil profile. Moreover, by combining both L- and P- bands, it is hypothesized that the soil moisture profile can be estimated even beyond their individual observation depths. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the potential of combined L-band and P-band radiometer observations to estimate the soil moisture profile under flat bare soil using a stratified coherent forward model. Brightness temperature observations at L-band and P-band from a tower based experimental site across a dry (April 2019) and a wet (March 2020) period, covering different soil moisture profile shapes, were used in this study. Results from an initial synthetic study showed that the performance of a combined L-band and P-band approach was better than the performance of using either band individually, with an average depth over which reliable soil moisture profile information could be estimated (i.e. with a target root mean square error (RMSE) of less than 0.04 m3/m3) being 20cm for linear and 15cm for second-order polynomial functions. Other functions were also tested but found to have a poorer performance. Applying the method to the tower-based brightness temperature achieved an average estimation depth of 28cm (20cm) and 5cm (5cm) during the dry and wet periods respectively when using a second-order polynomial (linear) function. These findings highlight the opportunity of a satellite mission with L-band and P-band observations to accurately estimate the soil moisture profile to as deep as 30cm globally.

Foad Brakhasi↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Is There A Relationship Between Cornered-Hat Methods and A Residual Approach to Estimate System Uncertainty?

Recently a relationship has been established between a now traditional residual diagnostic used to estimate observation, background and analysis error covariances of interest to data assimilation and the three-cornered hat (3CH) method. An existing extension of the traditional residual diagnostic uses residuals from a fixed lag-1 Kalman smoother to retrieve system (model) error covariance. It is thus natural to ask if an additional relationship can be established between this extended residual method and some form of cornered--hat method. The answer might seem straightforward. Unlike in the standard residual estimation case, attempting to estimate model error amounts to estimating the statistics of a residual quantity itself. As shown in this presentation, in such cases the 3CH method becomes trivial: the sought out uncertainty can be derived directly from the covariance of the residual quantity at hand. In the particular case of estimating model error, one of the corners would have to be composed of vectors providing estimates of model error; these are not typically available in practice. Therefore, at first glance the present work finds no relationship between the lag-1 smoother residual diagnostic for system error estimation and cornered--hat methods. However, the work suggests that a two-tiered 3CH might be all that is necessary for system uncertainty to be obtained with 3CH.

Ricardo Todling↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Hyperspectral Inversion Framework for Estimating Absorbing Inherent Optical Properties and Biogeochemical Parameters in Inland and Coastal Waters

The simultaneous remote estimation of biogeochemical parameters (BPs) and inherent optical properties (IOPs) from hyperspectral satellite imagery of globally distributed optically distinct inland and coastal waters is a complex, unsolved, non-unique inverse problem. To tackle this problem, we leverage a machine-learning model termed Mixture Density Networks (MDNs). MDNs outperform operational algorithms by calculating the covariance between the simultaneously estimated products. We train the MDNs on a large ( N = 8237) dataset of co-aligned, in situ measured, hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance (R rs ), BPs, and absorbing IOPs from globally representative optically distinct inland and coastal waters. The estimated IOPs include absorption due to phytoplankton (a ph ), chromophoric dissolved organic matter (a cdom ), and non-algal particles (a nap ). The estimated BPs include chlorophyll-a, total suspended solids, and phycocyanin (PC). MDNs dramatically reduce uncertainty in the retrievals, relative to operational algorithms, when using a 50/50 dataset split, where the MDNs are trained on a randomly selected half of the in situ dataset and validated on the other half. Our model is shown to have higher, or equivalent, generalization performance than the calculated operational algorithms available for all BPs and IOPs (except PC) via a leave-one-out cross-validation assessment. The MDNs are sensitive to uncertainties in the hyperspectral satellite R rs , resulting from instrument noise and atmospheric correction; there is a difference of ~37.4–62.8% (using median symmetric accuracy) between the MDNs’ estimates derived from co-located satellite-derived R rs and in situ R rs . Of the IOPs, a cdom and a nap are less sensitive to uncertainties in hyperspectral satellite imagery relative to a ph , with remote estimates of a ph exhibiting incorrect spectral shape and magnitude relative to in situ measured IOPs. Despite the uncertainties in satellite derived R rs , the spatial distributions of BPs and IOPs in MDN-derived product maps of Lake Erie and the Curonian Lagoon, based on imagery taken with the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) and PRecursore Iper-Spettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISMA), are confirmed via co-aligned in situ measurements and agree with the literature’s understanding of these well-studied regions. The consistency and accuracy of the model on HICO and PRISMA imagery, despite radiometric uncertainties, demonstrate its applicability to future hyperspectral missions, such as the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission, where the simultaneous estimation model will serve as a key part of phytoplankton community composition analysis.

Ryan E. O'Shea↗
NASA NTRS2015

Total Land Water Storage Change over 2003 - 2013 Estimated from a Global Mass Budget Approach

We estimate the total land water storage (LWS) change between 2003 and 2013 using a global water mass budget approach. Hereby we compare the ocean mass change (estimated from GRACE space gravimetry on the one hand, and from the satellite altimetry-based global mean sea level corrected for steric effects on the other hand) to the sum of the main water mass components of the climate system: glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets, atmospheric water and LWS (the latter being the unknown quantity to be estimated). For glaciers and ice sheets, we use published estimates of ice mass trends based on various types of observations covering different time spans between 2003 and 2013. From the mass budget equation, we derive a net LWS trend over the study period. The mean trend amounts to +0.30 +/- 0.18 mm/yr in sea level equivalent. This corresponds to a net decrease of −108 +/- 64 cu km/yr in LWS over the 2003-2013 decade. We also estimate the rate of change in LWS and find no significant acceleration over the study period. The computed mean global LWS trend over the study period is shown to be explained mainly by direct anthropogenic effects on land hydrology, i.e. the net effect of groundwater depletion and impoundment of water in man-made reservoirs, and to a lesser extent the effect of naturally-forced land hydrology variability. Our results compare well with independent estimates of human-induced changes in global land hydrology.

Water↗
NASA NTRS2016

Center of Mass Estimation for a Spinning Spacecraft Using Doppler Shift of the GPS Carrier Frequency

A sequential filter is presented for estimating the center of mass (CM) of a spinning spacecraft using Doppler shift data from a set of onboard Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. The advantage of the proposed method is that it is passive and can be run continuously in the background without using commanded thruster firings to excite spacecraft dynamical motion for observability. The NASA Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission is used as a test case for the CM estimator. The four MMS spacecraft carry star cameras for accurate attitude and spin rate estimation. The angle between the spacecraft nominal spin axis (for MMS this is the geometric body Z-axis) and the major principal axis of inertia is called the coning angle. The transverse components of the estimated rate provide a direct measure of the coning angle. The coning angle has been seen to shift slightly after every orbit and attitude maneuver. This change is attributed to a small asymmetry in the fuel distribution that changes with each burn. This paper shows a correlation between the apparent mass asymmetry deduced from the variations in the coning angle and the CM estimates made using the GPS Doppler data. The consistency between the changes in the coning angle and the CM provides validation of the proposed GPS Doppler method for estimation of the CM on spinning spacecraft.

Estimation↗
NASA NTRS2021

Multi-Pass Sequential Mini-Batch Stochastic Gradient Descent Algorithms for Noise Covariance Estimation in Adaptive Kalman Filtering

Estimation of unknown noise covariances in a Kalman filter is a problem of significant practical interest in a wide array of applications. Although this problem has a long history, reliable algorithms for their estimation were scant, and necessary and sufficient conditions for identifiability of the covariances were in dispute until recently. Necessary and sufficient conditions for covariance estimation and a batch estimation algorithm were presented in our previous study. This paper presents stochastic gradient descent algorithms for noise covariance estimation in adaptive Kalman filters that are an order of magnitude faster than the batch method for similar or better root mean square error. More significantly, these algorithms are applicable to non-stationary systems where the noise covariances can occasionally jump up or down by an unknown magnitude. The computational efficiency of the new algorithms stems from adaptive thresholds for convergence, recursive fading memory estimation of the sample cross-correlations of the innovations, and accelerated stochastic gradient descent algorithms. The comparative evaluation of the proposed methods on a number of test cases demonstrates their computational efficiency and accuracy.

Adaptive Kalman filtering↗