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At least 289 records · Page 16

Overview of the SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study Using the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress-drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress along a fault during earthquake rupture, is a critical parameter in earthquake science, impacting ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics. Spectral stress drop is commonly derived by fitting the amplitude-spectrum shape, but estimates can vary substantially across studies for individual earthquakes. Sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Statewide (previously, Southern) California Earthquake Center our community study aims to elucidate sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake spectral stress-drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submitted results from independent analyses. The dataset includes nearly 13,000 earthquakes ranging from M 1 to 7 during a two-week period of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, recorded within a 1° radius. Here, in this article, we report on 56 unique submissions received from 20 different groups, detailing spectral corner frequencies (or source durations), moment magnitudes, and estimated spectral stress drops. Methods employed encompass spectral ratio analysis, spectral decomposition and inversion, finite-fault modeling, ground-motion-based approaches, and combined methods. Initial analysis reveals significant scatter across submitted spectral stress drops spanning over six orders of magnitude. However, we can identify between-method trends and offsets within the data to mitigate this variability. Averaging submissions for a prioritized subset of 56 events shows reduced variability of spectral stress drop, indicating overall consistency in recovered spectral stress-drop values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Validation methods for flight crucial systems

Research to develop techniques that can aid in determining the reliability and performance of digital electronic fault-tolerant systems, that have probability of catastrophic system failure on the order of 10 to the -9th at 10 hours, is reviewed. The computer-aided reliability estimation program (CARE III) provides general-purpose reliability analysis and a design tool for fault-tolerant systems; large reduction of state size; and a fault-handling model based on probabilistic description of detection, isolation, and recovery mechanisms. The application of design proof techniques as part of the design and development of the software implemented fault-tolerance computer is mentioned. Emulation techniques and experimental procedures are verified using specimens of fault-tolerant computers and the capabilities of the validation research laboratory, AIRLAB.

Holt, H. M.↗

Fault-tolerant software for aircraft control systems

Concepts for software to implement real time aircraft control systems on a centralized digital computer were discussed. A fault tolerant software structure employing functionally redundant routines with concurrent error detection was proposed for critical control functions involving safety of flight and landing. A degraded recovery block concept was devised to allow collocation of critical and noncritical software modules within the same control structure. The additional computer resources required to implement the proposed software structure for a representative set of aircraft control functions were discussed. It was estimated that approximately 30 percent more memory space is required to implement the total set of control functions. A reliability model for the fault tolerant software was described and parametric estimates of failure rate were made.

Source record↗

SOSAT: Geohazard Risk Assessment in Carbon Sequestration Operations

Like all operations in which fluids are injected into the subsurface, geologic carbon storage (GCS) presents inherit risks that must be assessed and mitigated to successfully deploy such technology in the field. For example, alterations to pore pressure and the stress state due to fluid injection may trigger certain geohazards, such as potential fault activation and induced seismicity or unintentional hydraulic fracturing. Here we present capabilities for assessing these potential risks using the State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT): a Python library and web-based application capable of probabilistically estimating the subsurface state of stress informed by various field observations. Using posterior distributions of principal stress components, SOSAT can assess the risk of fault activation within the injection formation for either a critically oriented fault or a fault with a user-prescribed orientation. Additionally, SOSAT can estimate the probability of unintentional hydraulic fracturing of the intact reservoir rock. Here, we demonstrate these SOSAT capabilities using a hypothetical GCS site. This type of risk assessment can assist with the effective deployment of GCS technology in the field by informing safe design and management practices.

Haagenson, Ryan J.↗

High-Impedance Non-Linear Fault Detection via Eigenvalue Analysis with low PMU Sampling Rates

This work presents a hybrid data-driven and physics-based framework for high-impedance fault detection in power systems. An innovative method based on eigenvalue analysis is expanded and validated. Phasor Measurement Unit data is used to estimate eigenvalues corresponding to the powerlines being monitored. The projection and drift of these eigenvalues is then tracked and evaluated. Faults are detected as they drive eigenvalues outside of their normal zones. Eigenvectors are leveraged to support and validate the decisions made by the main algorithm. This technique holds several advantages over contemporary techniques in that it utilizes technology that is already deployed in the field, it offers a significant degree of generality, and so far it has displayed a very high-level of sensitivity without sacrificing accuracy. Validation takes place in the form of simulations in the IEEE 13 Node System considering a popular high-impedance non-linear fault model. Test results are encouraging indicating potential for real-life applications.

Paramo, Gian↗

Fault detection and exclusion in multisensor navigation systems

In order for a multisensor navigation system to meet integrity requirements, there must be a way of detecting erroneous measurements, using only data from those measurements. This can be accomplished using a parity space estimation algorithm. Erroneous measurements must then be removed from the position solution; the entire process is called fault detection and exclusion (FDE). A baseline FDE algorithm has been determined, and is capable of working in real time on present affordable hardware.

Bernath, Gregory N.↗

Effects of multiple simultaneous faults on characteristic fault detection features of a heat pump in cooling mode

Faults in air-cooled vapor compression air-conditioning systems are known to reduce performance, including efficiency, capacity, and lifespan. Their effects have been studied, and fault detection and diagnostic (FDD) methods have been developed as tools for field technicians to install or repair systems, or for monitoring to alert operators to the fault’s presence. Most of this work has focused on faults that occur singly. It is likely that in some systems, multiple faults occur simultaneously, but it is uncertain what effects this may have on diagnostics. Here, this paper describes a laboratory study of a split system air source heat pump in which combinations of two, three, and four simultaneous faults occur. The study includes all combinations of: improper evaporator airflow; overcharge or undercharge of refrigerant; liquid line restrictions; and non-condensable gas in the refrigerant, each at multiple fault intensities. Fault features – those characteristics that can be determined from measurements, for use in diagnostics – are analyzed, and the key fault features are presented. A robust existing method for determining refrigerant charge, the virtual refrigerant charge sensor (VRC) is tested using the multiple fault data, in order to understand how its performance is impacted by the combined faults. The VRC performs well, typically able to correctly determine whether a system is undercharged or overcharged, but the magnitude estimates are impacted. The results suggest that simple subcooling-based methods of charging a system are likely to provide unsatisfactory results when other faults are present.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Accelerated Monte Carlo Simulation for Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept

Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of any air traffic control system. An accelerated Monte Carlo approach was developed to assess the level of safety provided by a proposed next-generation air traffic control system. It combines features of fault tree and standard Monte Carlo methods. It runs more than one order of magnitude faster than the standard Monte Carlo method while providing risk estimates that only differ by about 10%. It also preserves component-level model fidelity that is difficult to maintain using the standard fault tree method. This balance of speed and fidelity allows sensitivity analysis to be completed in days instead of weeks or months with the standard Monte Carlo method. Results indicate that risk estimates are sensitive to transponder, pilot visual avoidance, and conflict detection failure probabilities.

Thipphavong, David↗

Mechanisms for Microseismicity Occurrence Due to CO 2 Injection at Decatur, Illinois: A Coupled Multiphase Flow and Geomechanics Perspective

Here, we numerically investigate the mechanisms that resulted in induced seismicity occurrence associated with CO 2 injection at the Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP). We build a geologically consistent model that honors key stratigraphic horizons and 3D fault surfaces interpreted using surface seismic data and microseismicity locations. We populate our model with reservoir and geomechanical properties estimated using well-log and core data. We then performed coupled multiphase flow and geomechanics modeling to investigate the impact of CO 2 injection on fault stability using the Coulomb failure criteria. We calibrate our flow model using measured reservoir pressure during the CO 2 injection phase. Our model results show that pore-pressure diffusion along faults connecting the injection interval to the basement is essential to explain the destabilization of the regions where microseismicity occurred, and that poroelastic stresses alone would result in stabilization of those regions. Slip tendency analysis indicates that, due to their orientations with respect to the maximum horizontal stress direction, the faults where the microseismicity occurred were very close to failure prior to injection. These model results highlight the importance of accurate subsurface fault characterization for CO 2 sequestration operations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Extensional tectonics during the igneous emplacement of the mafic-ultramafic rocks of the Barberton greenstone belt

The simatic rocks (Onverwacht Group) of the Barberton greenstone belt are part of the Jamestown ophiolite complex. This ophiolite, together with its thick sedimentary cover occupies a complex thrust belt. Field studies have identified two types of early faults which are entirely confined to the simatic rocks and are deformed by the later thrusts and associated folds. The first type of fault (F1a) is regional and always occurs in the simatic rocks along and parallel to the lower contacts of the ophiolite-related cherts (Middle Marker and equivalent layers). These fault zones have previously been referred to both as flaser-banded gneisses and as weathering horizons. In general the zones range between 1-30m in thickness. Displacements along these zones are difficult to estimate, but may be in the order of 1-100 km. The structures indicate that the faults formed close to horizontal, during extensional shear and were therefore low angle normal faults. F1a zones overlap in age with the formation of the ophiolite complex. The second type of faults (F1b) are vertical brittle-ductile shear zones, which crosscut the complex at variable angles and cannot always be traced from plutonic to overlying extrusive (pillowed) simatic rocks. F1b zones are also apparently of penecontemporaneous origin with the intrusive-extrusive igneous processs. F1b zones may either represent transform fault-type activity or represent root zones (steepened extensions) of F1a zones. Both fault types indicate extensive deformation in the rocks of the greenstone belt prior to compressional overthrust tectonics.

Dewit, M. J.↗

Thematic mapper study of Alaskan ophiolites

The combinations of Thematic Mapper (TM) bands that best distinguish basalts of the Brooks Range ophiolites were determined. Geochemical analyses, including major, trace, and rare earth elements (REE), are being done in order to study the significance of TM spectral variations that were observed within some of the sampled rock units. An image of the topography of the western Brooks Range and Colville Basin was constructed. Elevation data for the rest of Northern Alaska are being acquired to expand the area covered by the topography image. Two balanced cross sections (one along the eastern margin, the other along the western margin of the Brooks Range) are being constructed, using the techniques of fault-bend and fault-propagation folding. These are being used to obtain regional shortening estimates for the Brooks Range in an attempt to constrain tectonic models for the evolution of Northern Alaska. The TM data are being used to confirm reconnaissance maps and to obtain structural data where no maps exist. Along with the TM data, digital topography, seismic reflection profiles, and magnetic and gravity surveys are examined to better understand the evolution of the Colville Basin, north of the Brooks Range.

Bird, J. M.↗

Ridge belt-related scarps and troughs: Compressional crustal bending on Venus

Cytherean ridge arcs resulted in crustal shortening in places with either the strongest compression or weakest surface layers. Arcuate scarps on or close to the edge of the ridge arcs were compressional fronts formed by overthrust over or subduction of adjacent lowland. These ridge arcs became wider due to the propagation of new ridge formation close to previous one(s). As this process repeated itself with time, the crust became thicker and the foreland was bent either due to the excess load, overthrust or subduction event. The Salme Dorsa arc measures 100 km in width and 600 km in length. It consists of a horseshoe-like set of ridges and grooves on a gently sloping lowland. The westward arcuate ridge belt indicates lateral compressional stresses and crustal deformation from SE against the southern Ishtar Terra foreland plain. The trough on the western side of the ridge belt and tensional grabens close to the crest of the bulge to the west of the trough are due to the crustal bending and indicate effects of the load and thrust. Compression and relative movement from southeast against and over the foreland planitia have resulted in ridge belt, trough and bulge formation. The load- and/or stress-induced bending of the uppermost crust allows some estimations of the uppermost elastic lithosphere thickness. Repeated folding and thrust faulting of surface layers due to compression are indicated by four more ridge belts located close to Salme Dorsa. The northeasternmost one has short ridges located in troughs. The west-opening arcuate ridge belt interlocks with the Salme Dorsa horseshoe.

Raitala, J.↗

Analytical Redundancy Using Kalman Filters for Rocket Engine Sensor Validation

The use of sensor redundancy is crucial in aerospace systems to maintain safe, reliable operation. While hardware redundancy is more common in application, analytical redundancy can provide a viable alternative in systems where the installation of multiple redundant sensors is not viable. To this end, the use of Kalman filters to analytically validate sensor measurements within rocket engines was explored. First, a dynamic model of the RS 25 engine, a derivative of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), was reduced to a subset of relations, focused around the main combustion chamber pressure. These relations were used within the Kalman filter algorithm to generate an estimate of sensor measurements to be compared with true measurements for data validation purposes. By using a bank of Kalman filters, the residuals between the estimated and true measurements were used to detect and isolate sensor faults. Through fault simulations, the sensor validation performance of this Kalman filter bank design was compared to a hardware redundancy check. Sensor bias and drift faults of various magnitudes were injected into nominal RS 25 engine test data. Results for both approaches show comparable fault detection with most bias faults found nearly instantaneously by both algorithms. Drift fault detection results show certain cases where one algorithm is faster than the other. The key advantage of the Kalman filter algorithm is shown in fault isolation performance where it can isolate faults between two redundant sensors while the hardware redundancy comparisons cannot.

sensors↗

Open Source Fault-tolerant Grid Frequency Measurement for Solar Inverters

The Discrete Fourier transform (DFT) based measurement algorithms are one of the most common measurement algorithms for grid parameter estimation such as rms, phase angle, frequency. Over the past few years, many DFT based algorithms have been developed to enhance its measurement accuracy under steady-state and/or dynamic grid conditions. For example, an adaptive band-pass filter utilizing exponential modulation filter has been proposed to reduce measurement errors at the presence of large frequency deviations. Measurement accuracy of different algorithms including FIR filter, extended Kalman filtering (EKF), and enhanced DFT method have been compared in detail under different grid conditions. Two artificial signals that have 90-degree phase difference were constructed by the Clarke transformation to address the frequency spectrum leakage of DFT. A multi-module approach was developed to enhance both steady-state and dynamic measurement accuracies, in which each module was developed to eliminate some specific errors. Besides DFT-based measurement algorithms, some signal model-based algorithms have been developed to further improve the accuracy under dynamic conditions. However, a key drawback of the state-of-the-art algorithms is that they cannot perform measurements accurately during system transient faults. In the Blue Cut Fire event, there was a phase angle jump of about 26 degrees in the voltage waveform during the transient fault. The phase angle jump fault will cause waveform discontinuity, and these algorithms will fail to provide reliable measurements during this period because they typically assume the waveform to be measured is continuous, no matter what method (DFT, PLL, EKF, FIR, or Taylor WLS) is used for estimation. In fact, the measurement errors during the system transient faults like phase-jump is not required in the IEEE Standard. As a result, although a measurement instrument can pass the strict IEEE Standard, it could still be the source of the problem in the future if we have similar system transient faults, which could happen again. Therefore, developing the fault-tolerant measurement technology is the key to solve the problem.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Software Fault Tolerance: A Tutorial

Because of our present inability to produce error-free software, software fault tolerance is and will continue to be an important consideration in software systems. The root cause of software design errors is the complexity of the systems. Compounding the problems in building correct software is the difficulty in assessing the correctness of software for highly complex systems. After a brief overview of the software development processes, we note how hard-to-detect design faults are likely to be introduced during development and how software faults tend to be state-dependent and activated by particular input sequences. Although component reliability is an important quality measure for system level analysis, software reliability is hard to characterize and the use of post-verification reliability estimates remains a controversial issue. For some applications software safety is more important than reliability, and fault tolerance techniques used in those applications are aimed at preventing catastrophes. Single version software fault tolerance techniques discussed include system structuring and closure, atomic actions, inline fault detection, exception handling, and others. Multiversion techniques are based on the assumption that software built differently should fail differently and thus, if one of the redundant versions fails, it is expected that at least one of the other versions will provide an acceptable output. Recovery blocks, N-version programming, and other multiversion techniques are reviewed.

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo↗

Stable Rate of Slip Along the Karakax Section of the Altyn Tagh Fault from Observation of Interglacial and Postglacial Offset Morphology and Surface Dating

Digital elevation maps obtained using TanDEM-X and Pleiades data combined with newly obtained surface age estimates using cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) and optically simulated luminescence (OSL) methods are used to quantify the slip rate along the western section of the Altyn Tagh Fault in southern Xinjiang. The reconstruction of the conical shape of massive alluvial fans inferred to be from the Eemian (115±7 ka) from CRN dating shows consistent left-lateral offsets of 300±20 m, yielding a slip rate of 2.6±0.3 mm/year. Successive episodes of incision have left cut terraces inset in wide canyons, 10–25 m below the fans' surface. The incision was followed by the deposition of a broad terrace of early Holocene age, which is reincised by modern stream channels. Near the village of Shanxili, a 200 m wide valley is partially dammed by a shutter ridge displaced by the fault. A fill terrace deposited upstream from the ridge has an OSL age of 8.8±0.6 ka. The 23±2 m offset of the riser incising the terrace indicates a minimum postdepositional movement on the fault, yielding a Holocene rate of 2.6±0.5 mm/year, consistent with the 115-ka average slip rate. Furthermore, scarp degradation analysis using mass diffusion reveals a nonlinear relationship between fault displacement and degradation coefficient along the progressively exposed fault scarp, a pattern suggesting either seismic clustering or variable diffusion rate since the Eemian. Together with the Gozha Co-Longmu Co fault to the south, the Karakax section of the Altyn Tagh Fault contributes to the eastward movement of the western corner of Tibet.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Adaptive Fault Detection on Liquid Propulsion Systems with Virtual Sensors: Algorithms and Architectures

Prior to the launch of STS-119 NASA had completed a study of an issue in the flow control valve (FCV) in the Main Propulsion System of the Space Shuttle using an adaptive learning method known as Virtual Sensors. Virtual Sensors are a class of algorithms that estimate the value of a time series given other potentially nonlinearly correlated sensor readings. In the case presented here, the Virtual Sensors algorithm is based on an ensemble learning approach and takes sensor readings and control signals as input to estimate the pressure in a subsystem of the Main Propulsion System. Our results indicate that this method can detect faults in the FCV at the time when they occur. We use the standard deviation of the predictions of the ensemble as a measure of uncertainty in the estimate. This uncertainty estimate was crucial to understanding the nature and magnitude of transient characteristics during startup of the engine. This paper overviews the Virtual Sensors algorithm and discusses results on a comprehensive set of Shuttle missions and also discusses the architecture necessary for deploying such algorithms in a real-time, closed-loop system or a human-in-the-loop monitoring system. These results were presented at a Flight Readiness Review of the Space Shuttle in early 2009.

Matthews, Bryan L.↗

Localization of Ad-Hoc Lunar Constellations in Communication Failure Modes for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

As Lunar missions increase in complexity, inspired by NASA’s Artemis Program, they will require reliable and sufficient Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) capability to support the upcoming Lunar users. The navigation service should also be compatible with the smaller platforms, like CubeSats, being sent by the public and private sectors. A non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation can provide PNT services on-demand using the non-dedicated swarm assets. Swarm members cooperatively and autonomously localize themselves with minimal interaction from Earth, freeing up valuable bandwidth and ground segment resources. The autonomous localization of Lunar constellations utilizes neighbor two-way intersatellite link (ISL) measurements in a distributed extended Kalman filter (DEKF) system to minimize operating costs. Because the decentralized Lunar PNT system relies on relay communication amongst the agents, network failures or loss of assets among ad-hoc Lunar constellations may impact localization performance. This study presents an evaluation of localization performance under increasing levels of network degradation. A simulation of an ad-hoc Lunar PNT swarm is augmented to include system faults and the impacts of intermittent and permanent failures on localization performance are evaluated. We investigate three potential causes of network degradation: single spacecraft loss, multiple spacecraft loss, and antenna failure. The numerical assessments from the simulation show that the LPNT system under study, based on an autonomous decentralized concept of operation, is highly robust and resilient to communication failures. Minor faults, such as single spacecraft loss, solar interference, technical malfunctions, message delays, and antenna outages, have minimal impact on state estimation, with only a 4.47% and 3.75% degradation in median position error for assets and a representative ground user, respectively, compared to an ideal communication scenario. However, major faults, such as hardware failures or meteor strikes leading to the loss of multiple spacecrafts, are more concerning. The permanent loss of three spacecraft results in a more severe performance degradation, with median position error increasing by 23.3% for assets and 11.7% for a representative ground user, despite the Lunar PNT system remaining functional.

Yeji Kim↗