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288 records · Page 16

Two Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns are Associated with Short-Duration Dry Spells in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale meteorological pattern (LSMP)–based analysis is used in a novel way to understand meteorological conditions before and during short-duration dry spells over the northeastern United States. These LSMPs are useful to assess models and select better-performing models for future projections. Dry-spell events are identified from histograms of consecutive dry days below a daily precipitation threshold. Events lasting 12 days or longer, which correspond to ~10% of dry-spell events, are examined. The 500-hPa stream-function anomaly fields for the first 12 days of each event are time averaged, and k -means clustering is applied to isolate the dry-spell-related LSMPs. The first cluster has a strong low pressure anomaly over the Atlantic Ocean, southeast of the region, and is more common in winter and spring. The second cluster has strong high pressure over east-central North America and is most common during autumn. Over the region, both clusters have negative specific humidity anomalies, negative integrated vapor transport from the north, and subsidence associated with a midlatitude jet stream dipole structure that reinforces upper-level convergence. Subsidence is supported by cold-air advection in the first cluster and the location on the east side of the lower-level high pressure in the second cluster. Extratropical cyclone storm tracks are generally shifted southward of the region during the dry spells. Individual events lie on a continuum between two distinct clusters. These clusters have similar local, but different remote, properties. Although dry spells occur with greater frequency during drought months, most dry spells occur during nondrought months. Significance Statement: This study examines the large-scale weather patterns and meteorological conditions associated with dry-spell events lasting at least 2 weeks while affecting the northeastern United States. A statistical approach groups events together on the basis of similar atmospheric features. We find two distinct sets of patterns that we call large-scale meteorological patterns. These patterns reduce moisture, foster localized sinking, and shift the storm track southward along the Atlantic seaboard, all of which reduce precipitation. Besides greater understanding, knowing the meteorological patterns during short-term dryness in the region provides an important tool to assess how well atmospheric models reproduce these specific patterns. More dry spells occur in non-drought months than in drought months, which means that dry spells can occur without preexisting drought conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A multi‐variable framework for selecting WRF physics configurations at convection‐permitting scales: An Amazon wet‐season case study

Tropical convection over rainforests modulates atmospheric circulation and the energy and hydrological cycles across multiple scales. However, the scarcity of observations still limits our understanding of these processes. Although numerical models are utilized to investigate atmospheric physical processes, their performance depends on the choice of parameterizations and grid resolution. Here, in this work, we introduce and apply a multi‐variable, multi‐physics framework to evaluate and rank the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF–ARW) configurations at 1‐km resolution over the central Amazon during the wet season. A 48‐member ensemble combines three land‐surface models (LSMs), four planetary boundary layer (PBL), and four microphysics (MP) schemes. Model performance for seven convection‐related near‐surface and boundary‐layer variables is assessed using Taylor diagrams and the Taylor skill score (TSS), analysis of variance (ANOVA)‐based sensitivity metrics, and non‐parametric rank tests. We then construct a combined, weighted TSS to identify configurations that are comparatively robust across variables. Results showed that most configurations reproduce near‐surface temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and boundary‐layer height reasonably well, whereas humidity and rainfall remain challenging. LSM choice has the strongest impact on the surface fluxes and a secondary influence on near‐surface temperature and humidity, PBL schemes dominate boundary‐layer height, and MP schemes exert the largest control on rainfall. No single configuration is optimal for all variables, but the combination of Noah (LSM), Yonsei University (PBL), and Morrison (MP) emerges as the most robust configuration for this case, with the WRF single‐moment six‐class scheme (WSM6) providing a competitive, computationally cheaper MP alternative. The framework is general and can be applied to other regions, seasons, and convective regimes.

Amazon rainforest↗

Investigation of Point-Contact Strategies for CFD Simulations of Pebble-Bed Reactor Cores

This study numerically investigated the effects of various contact strategies on the thermal hydraulic behavior within a structured bed of 100 explicitly modeled pebbles. Four contact strategies and two thermal hydraulic conditions were considered. The strategies to avoid contact singularities include decreasing the pebble diameter, increasing the pebble diameter, bridging the pebble surfaces near the contact region, and capping the pebble surfaces near the contact region. One strategy, Strategy 3a, which involves bridging with a cylinder equal to 10% of the pebble diameter, was selected as the baseline strategy because it addressed the contact singularity while minimizing the geometric changes that affect the bed porosity. The two thermal hydraulic conditions were full-power operation (Case 1) and pressurized loss of forced cooling or PLOFC (Case 2). Simulations of the conjugate heat transfer within the structured bed were performed using the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes approach with the realizable k-ϵ turbulence model and two-layer all y + wall treatment. The thermal-fluid quantities of interest were compared between the contact strategies for each case. In Case 1, the hydraulic behavior was sensitive to the contact strategy, with large differences in the pressure drop (30%) and volume-average velocity (4%). The thermal behavior was not sensitive, with less than a 0.5% difference across the strategies. To better understand the separate effects of each heat transfer mode, Case 2 was divided into the following subcases: conduction (Case 2a); conduction/radiation (Case 2b); and conduction/radiation/convection (Case 2c). Case 2a represents an early phase of the PLOFC transient. Case 2b represents an intermediate phase of the PLOFC transient, with the pebble temperatures sufficiently high for the radiative heat transfer to be non-negligible. Case 2c represents a late phase of the PLOFC transient after the establishment of the natural circulation of the heat transfer fluid. For Case 2, large differences in the contact strategy were observed only in Case 2a with only conduction. The difference in the maximum pebble temperature was 23% in Case 2a, 2% in Case 2b, and 0.3% in Case 2c.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Quantifying CanESM5 and EAMv1 sensitivities to Mt. Pinatubo volcanic forcing for the CMIP6 historical experiment

Large volcanic eruptions reaching the stratosphere have caused marked perturbations to the global climate including cooling at the Earth's surface, changes in large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns and marked temporary reductions in global ocean heat content. Many studies have investigated these effects using climate models; however, uncertainties remain in the modelled response to these eruptions. This is due in part to the diversity of forcing datasets that are used to prescribe the distribution of stratospheric aerosols resulting from these volcanic eruptions, as well as uncertainties in optical property derivations from these datasets. To improve this situation for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a two-step process was undertaken. First, a combined stratospheric aerosol dataset, the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC; 1979–2016), was constructed. Next, GloSSAC, along with information from ice cores and Sun photometers, was used to generate aerosol distributions, characteristics and optical properties to construct a more consistent stratospheric aerosol forcing dataset for models participating in CMIP6. This “version 3” of the stratospheric aerosol forcing has been endorsed for use in all contributing CMIP6 simulations. Recent updates to the underlying GloSSAC from version 1 to version 1.1 affected the 1991–1994 period and necessitated an update to the stratospheric aerosol forcing from version 3 to version 4. As version 3 remains the official CMIP6 input, quantification of the impact on radiative forcing and climate is both relevant and timely for interpreting results from experiments such as the CMIP6 historical simulations. This study uses two models, the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1), to estimate the difference in instantaneous radiative forcing in simulated post-Pinatubo climate response when using version 4 instead of version 3. Differences in temperature, precipitation and radiative forcings are generally found to be small compared to internal variability. An exception to this is differences in monthly temperature anomalies near 24 km altitude in the tropics, which can be as large as 3 °C following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

CODE-TO-CODE BENCHMARK STUDY FOR THERMAL STRESS MODELING AND PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF THE HIGH-TEMPERATURE SINGLE HEAT PIPE EXPERIMENT

Microreactors are very small nuclear reactors with typical thermal-energy output of up to 20 MWth. The microreactor concept is gaining more and more attention for safe, robust, and reliable supply of electricity for remote locations and to meet industrial process heat needs. Heat-pipe-cooled microreactor is one of the microreactors being investigated at Idaho National Laboratory. In the heat-pipe-cooled microreactor, heat pipes remove heat from the reactor core as a passive heat-transfer device, so the fluid circulation is not required for cooling, which can substantially simplify the overall reactor design. However, given the extremely high temperatures in the core region and potentially large temperature gradients across the structure materials, thermal stresses need to be well-analyzed to ensure structural integrity during normal operations and accident scenarios for the heat-pipe-cooled microreactor designs. This paper discusses finite element method-based thermal-stress analysis for the high-temperature single heat-pipe test article in the Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator (SPHERE) facility at Idaho National Laboratory, using two commercial software packages, Abaqus and STAR-CCM+. A code-to-code benchmark study was performed to crosscheck the model setup and capability of each code and to gain insights into the potential thermal stress concerns from the current experimental setup. It is observed the significant thermal stresses happen at the locations where the largest temperature gradients appeared between heat pipe and electric heater. The temperature fields have good agreements between Abaqus and STAR-CCM+, while the induced thermal stresses show modest deviations probably due to differences of meshing engines used in these two codes.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Wabash CarbonSAFE. Geologic Analysis of the Potosi Dolomite Reservoir Interval and Potential Confining Units, at the Wabash #1 Well, Vigo Co., Indiana, Subtask 7.2, Technical Report

The Wabash CarbonSAFE project drilled the Wabash #1 stratigraphic test well (ID# 168045) at the Wabash Valley Resources (WVR) IGCC facility in Vigo County, Indiana, to evaluate the feasibility of commercial-scale CO 2 storage near the site. The Mt. Simon Sandstone was the initial target for storage evaluation and was found to have generally poor reservoir qualities in the Wabash #1 well. Focus was then placed on the secondary target, the Potosi Dolomite. For storage and containment evaluation an extensive suite of geophysical logs was collected throughout the borehole, and whole cores were obtained from the Mt. Simon Sandstone, Eau Claire Formation, and Maquoketa Group. The Maquoketa Group is identified as a regionally extensive secondary sealing interval above the Mt. Simon Sandstone and as a primary seal for the Potosi Dolomite storage complex. Due to concerns over potential lost circulation zones in the Potosi Dolomite during drilling, no core samples or Formation Micro Imager (FMI) logs were acquired in the Potosi Dolomite. However, cased hole well testing was performed over a 20 feet (6 m) interval within the Potosi Dolomite during which a fluid swab sample was obtained. Approximately 35 miles of 2D seismic information was acquired in the project area near Wabash #1 to aid in reservoir and caprock characterization. The highly porous and permeable zones in the Potosi Dolomite and lower Oneota Dolomite observed within the Wabash #1 well are, for the purpose of this report, considered the same reservoir package and referred to as the Potosi reservoir interval. This report presents a regional depositional context for the Potosi reservoir interval, the overlying confining zones in the Knox Group, and Maquoketa Group primary seal. This context is developed through detailed information obtained from the Wabash #1 well such as lithologic data collected from cuttings and core, geophysical logging, geomechanical analysis of core samples, and well testing and fluid sampling within the Potosi reservoir interval. Information discussed in this report was compiled as a basis for the development of static and dynamic geologic models of the Potosi Dolomite storage complex. The static and dynamic modeling of CO 2 injection in the Potosi reservoir interval are discussed in a separate report (Dessenberger et al., 2022) under the Wabash CarbonSAFE project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Review of molten salt reactor off-gas management considerations

Molten salt reactors offer a wide range of potential benefits but pose some unique challenges, particularly for designs that use an unclad liquid salt fuel. This type of fuel will result in the transport of fission gases into the headspace of the reactor where in some designs a cover gas can be circulated to remove certain fission products and maintain an inert atmosphere. The cover gas leaving the reactor core is expected to contain both noble and non-noble gases, aerosols, volatile species, tritium, radionuclides, and their daughters. To remove these radioactive gases, it is necessary to develop a robust off-gas system for molten salt–fueled reactors. Various treatment systems must be staged in series to remove the off-gas constituents from the stream before recirculating the gas back to the headspace of the reactor. Treatment options vary greatly depending on what they are designed to remove from the gas stream. This paper reviews the anticipated composition of a typical molten salt reactor off-gas stream and subsequently the available resources that could be employed to remove these species from the gas stream. An example off-gas system is then detailed, along with important design considerations, exemplifying the necessity for high-fidelity modeling. Lastly, the need for further thermophysical property research and the employment of advanced sensor technology for treatment component testing are discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Miniature DC electromagnetic pumps of molten lead and sodium to support development of Gen-IV nuclear reactors

This work developed designs of submerged, dual-regions, miniature DC-EM pumps for circulating molten lead and liquid sodium at ≤500 °C without active cooling for use in ex-pile and in-pile test loops to support of materials and fuel developments for Gen-IV sodium and molten lead fast nuclear reactor. These pumps with two pumping regions are 57 mm, 66.8 mm, 95.4 mm, and 133.5 mm in diameter and have two Alnico 5 permanent magnets with Hiperco-50 pole pieces for focusing the magnetic field lines in the flow duct. The Equivalent Circuit Model (ECM) linked to the Finite Element Method Magnetics (FEMM) software in MATLAB platform calculated the pumps characteristics for a wide range of parameters. Also determined are the pumps dimensions for the highest cumulative pumping power and peak efficiency. These dimensions are the height, width, and length of the flow duct, the thickness of the Alnico magnets, the length of current electrodes, and the separation distance between the two pumping regions. For molten lead, the pumping power increases from 368 W to 728 W, and the peak efficiency from 14.7% to 31.6% with increased pump diameter from 57 mm to 133.5 mm. In conclusion, for liquid sodium, both the pumping power and peak efficiency are higher, increasing from 392 W to 767 W and from 44.3 to 51.2%, respectively, with increased pump diameter from 57 mm to 133.5 mm.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Large Eddy Simulation of Low-Reynolds-Number Turbulent Flow of Low-Prandtl-Number Fluid in a Tight Lattice Bundle for Assessment of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Turbulence Model

The MARVEL (Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation) microreactor utilizes natural circulation as core cooling mechanism and liquid metal as a primary coolant. Moreover, the reactor core has a pitch-to-diameter ratio of 1.056, which is considered a tight lattice configuration. Numerous studies have widely reported that Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models inaccurately predict heat transfer in liquid metals and fail to capture flow pulsations that can occur within tight lattices, leading to further inaccuracies in simulation results. Therefore, evaluating the accuracy of RANS turbulence models in the thermal-hydraulic analysis of the MARVEL microreactor core is crucial for assessing reactor safety. In this study, a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of the MARVEL microreactor core subchannel was conducted and compared with a RANS simulation to evaluate the accuracies and conservatism of the RANS model. The flow pulsation in a tight lattice predicted by LES enhanced the heat transfer, whereas the RANS model underpredicted it. Consequently, the RANS model predicted the peak cladding temperature higher than the LES model, but the discrepancy between the two approaches was not significant due to the good thermal characteristics of the liquid metal. It can be concluded that the steady-state RANS model is effective for the thermal analysis of liquid-metal-cooled MARVEL microreactor core and can provide conservative predictions from a safety analysis perspective.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Changes in Hadley circulation and intertropical convergence zone under strategic stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering has been proposed as a potential solution to reduce climate change and its impacts. Here, we explore the responses of the Hadley circulation (HC) intensity and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) using the strategic stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, in which sulfur dioxide was injected into the stratosphere at four different locations to maintain the global-mean surface temperature and the interhemispheric and equator-to-pole temperature gradients at present-day values (baseline). Simulations show that, relative to the baseline, strategic stratospheric aerosol geoengineering generally maintains northern winter December–January–February (DJF) HC intensity under RCP8.5, while it overcompensates for the greenhouse gas (GHG)-forced southern winter June–July–August (JJA) HC intensity increase, producing a 3.5 ± 0.4% weakening. The residual change of southern HC intensity in JJA is mainly associated with stratospheric heating and tropospheric temperature response due to enhanced stratospheric aerosol concentrations. Geoengineering overcompensates for the GHG-driven northward ITCZ shifts, producing 0.7° ± 0.1° and 0.2° ± 0.1° latitude southward migrations in JJA and DJF, respectively relative to the baseline. These migrations are affected by tropical interhemispheric temperature differences both at the surface and in the free troposphere. Further strategies for reducing the residual change of HC intensity and ITCZ shifts under stratospheric aerosol geoengineering could involve minimizing stratospheric heating and restoring and preserving the present-day tropical tropospheric interhemispheric temperature differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CNRS Molten Salt Reactor Benchmark Analysis Using Griffin-Pronghorn Coupled Multi-physics Code System

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) with flowing fuel have the unique feature of utilizing the fuel salt for heat generation and extraction at the same time, since the fuel salt is circulating through the whole primary loop. This movement of fuel salt results in a partial decay of the delayed neutron precursors (DNPs) outside the core and the corresponding redistribution of the DNPs in the active region of the core. To capture this effect, neutronics and thermal-hydraulics (T/H) codes need to be able to handle the movement of DNPs and their decay [1, 2]. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is actively working on developing the neutronics and T/H codes to model the MSRs with flowing fuel. As one of the efforts, the neutronics code Griffin [3] and the T/H code Pronghorn [4] that are built upon the MOOSE framework [5] have been extended to handle the flowing fuel involving the drift of DNPs, and this capability is being tested and verified with MSR benchmark problems including the CNRS benchmark problem [6]. Additionally, a multi-physics analysis of the molten salt reactor experiment (MSRE) is being conducted to verify and validate the codes against available experimental data [7]. This work presents the analysis of the CNRS benchmark problem using the Griffin-Pronghorn coupled multi-physics code system of INL. Both steady-state and transient problems are analyzed, and the results are compared with those of other participants presented in [6]. The following section provides a description of the benchmark, along with input parameters and observables for each step. Then, the results for each step are presented in comparison with other participants’ results, followed by summary and conclusion.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

[Presentation Slides] Code-to-Code Benchmark Study for Thermal Stress Modeling and Preliminary Analysis of the High-temperature Single Heat-Pipe Experiment

In the heat-pipe-cooled microreactor, heat pipes remove heat from the reactor core as a passive heat-transfer device, so the fluid circulation is not required for cooling, which can substantially simplify the overall reactor design. However, given the extremely high temperatures in the core region and potentially large temperature gradients across the structure materials, thermal stresses need to be well-analyzed to ensure structural integrity during normal operations and accident scenarios. This presentation slides discuss finite element method-based thermal-stress analysis for the high-temperature single heat-pipe test article in the Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator (SPHERE) facility at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), using two commercial software packages, Abaqus and Star-CCM+. A code-to-code benchmark study was performed to crosscheck the model setup and capability of each code and to gain preliminary insights into the potential thermal stress concerns from the current experimental setup. It is observed the significant thermal stresses happen at the inner surface of the heat pipe hole surrounded by electric heaters where the largest temperature gradients appear. The temperature fields have good agreements between Abaqus and Star-CCM+, while the induced thermal stresses show modest deviations probably due to differences of meshing engines used in these two codes. It is found that the local maximum thermal stresses may reach close to the ultimate tensile strength and yield strength of structural material depending on the heater power. Ultimately, the coupled thermal-structural analysis will help guide the current experimental plan and ensure the facility safety for future experimental study.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Nuclear Material Control & Accounting for Pebble Bed Reactors (FY 2023 Summary Report)

This report discusses the work done under the US Department of Energy NE-5 Advanced Reactor Safeguards and Security Program during FY 2023. It provides a summary of material control and accounting (MC&A) for pebble bed reactors (PBRs) and addresses some of the main challenges with current PBR MC&A approaches that will inform safeguards and security by design efforts. The efforts to date have focused on tristructural isotropic (TRISO) pebble fuel material accounting and control including working with partners in industry, loss and production of nuclear material as part of reactor operations, burnup modeling and measurements, uncertainty quantifications for such modeling and measurements, statistical approaches needed, and measurement methods. The unique fuel management and utilization in a PBR, where the fuel in spherical form is introduced and circulates through the reactor, poses special challenges for MC&A. This contrasts with traditional water-cooled reactors in which the fuel is contained in large assemblies and can be easily identified and counted. Even online fueled reactors, such as the CANDU reactors (none of which operate in the United States), are significantly different because the fuel is still contained in relatively large assemblies, is uniquely identified, and the number of assemblies that pass through the core on an annual basis is much fewer than the hundreds of thousands that circulate in a PBR, none of which are uniquely identified. Additionally, the nature of the TRISO fuel results in very low heavy metal loading with each pebble containing less than 10 g of uranium and on the order of less than 1 g of fissile material. This low fuel density and the robustness of the TRISO particles are major features of the TRISO fuel from a safety basis as each TRISO particle and pebble acts as a containment for the nuclear material and fission products during normal and accident conditions. This also results in very low plutonium loading per pebble during normal operations, which is on the order of 0.1 g at full burnup. A major feature of PBRs is that they will allow for significantly higher burnup, on the order of 160 GWd/THM compared to the burnup of traditional LWRs, which is on the order of 45 GWd/THM. This is achieved by monitoring the pebbles as they circulate through the reactor and allowing them to be reintroduced into the core until the desired burnup is achieved and they are removed from the reactor and enter the spent fuel storage areas.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Gas-Gap Calorimeter Sizing and Rating Tools for Heat Pipe Experimentation

Effective gas-gap calorimeter sizing and rating tools are required to design calorimeters that enable well-defined operating conditions, high cooling powers, and accurate calorimetry. The present report describes two tools utilizing Microsoft Excel and MathWorks MATLAB that enable the sizing and rating of gas-gap calorimeters with a He-Ar binary gas mixture in the gap. The Excel tools are two easy-to-use spreadsheets for calculating heat pipe operating temperature or He-Ar mole fractions given the required inputs. The MATLAB tool includes similar models with more robust solution algorithms along with sub-options for full-vacuum, static gas-gap, and forced circulation in the gas-gap. The accuracy of the developed tools were demonstrated by comparing with existing work in literature. The MATLAB tool was used for a parametric study to determine the gas-gap thickness, coolant gap thickness, coolant flow rate, and coolant inlet temperatures for the testing of a 3/4 in outer diameter heat pipe up to powers of 10 kW and temperatures of 1,000°C. The effects of heat pipe and calorimeter inner shell surface emissivities were investigated, considering the inability to control or accurately measure surface emissivities in most applications. It was found that controlling the He-Ar mole fractions provides a wide operating range for gas-gap thicknesses around ~ 0.042--0.090 in (~ 1.07--2.29 mm) for a surface emissivity range of 0.4--0.8, since conduction heat transfer is a significant fraction of the heat transfer across the gas-gap. In addition, it was found that turbulent flow in the coolant gap is needed at high input powers to prevent shell temperatures from approaching the boiling temperature of the water coolant. The parametric study resulted in choosing stainless steel tubes with an outer diameter and thickness of 1 x 0.065 in as the inner shell, and a 1-1/2 x 0.156 in as the outer shell of the calorimeter. Overall, this report presents the necessary information for the sizing and rating of gas-gap calorimeters with He-Ar mixtures for the testing of high-temperature heat pipes (~ 500--1,000°C).

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

FEED Study of Carbon Capture Inc. DAC and CarbonCure Utilization Using United States Steel's Gary Works Waste Plant

Direct Air Capture (DAC) has been proposed as a means of reducing atmospheric concentrations of CO2. While DAC has been evaluated through lab-scale, bench-scale, and small-scale pilot units, large-scale deployment has not been achieved. Feasibility studies are one tool to understand the potential design, operation, performance, and impact of commercial-scale DAC. This paper presents the results of a feasibility study for a passive DAC system deployed at >100,000 tpy scale in three different regions across the U.S. and awarded to Carbon Collect by the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE NETL). The MechanicalTree™technology has been designed and engineered by Carbon Collect based on the concept initially developed at Arizona State University Center for Negative Carbon Emissions. It uses a tower of stacked, sorbentcontaining disks supported by a lifting mechanism, exposed to the air to capture CO2 during the adsorption phase. The disks are then lowered into a regeneration chamber for vacuum and steam regeneration to produce CO2 product during the desorption step. The modular tree design allows large installations with repeatable, mass-manufactured units connected to common utilities such as steam supply, vacuum, and CO2 processing for compression and geologic storage. The passive DAC system eliminates the equipment and energy of forced air fans by using natural air circulation to contact the sorbent with the CO2 in the air. Because of this, the performance is dependent on the wind speed in addition to the temperature and relative humidity. Performance and flow rate fluctuations were incorporated into equipment and facility design with considerations for turndown to 10% of maximum rated flow to allow operation in all seasons. The feasibility study was undertaken to evaluate the technology in different regions and climates. Three locations were selected for this study representing different climates: Alabama (hot and humid), California (hot and arid), and Wyoming (continental). For each region, the adsorption/desorption cycle was optimized including tuning the heat integration and cycle timings. The performance of individual trees was then scaled to the full facility with the same design of more than 20,000 trees common between all regions. The installations had expected average CO2 capture rates of between 330,000 and 485,000 tonnes of CO2 per year depending on the climate. The initial engineering design for the facility at each location was performed with cost and performance estimates for the trees, carbon purification and compression, and the balance of plant. To supply thermal and electrical energy for the facility, carbon-free or low-carbon power must be considered. Options for low-carbon, continuous thermal and electrical energy were considered. The best-performing option from those considered was identified to be an electrically-heated molten salt energy storage system, powered by an on-site photovoltaic field. During molten salt thermal discharge, steam is produced from heat exchange with the molten salt and used to generate power in a steam turbine as well as steam for regenerating the DAC carbon trees. The thermal and electrical supply and analysis is presented in the context of low-carbon power for carbon removal. Modelling and economics of transportation and geologic storage of the CO2 is considered and presented for each location. The results of the feasibility study are incorporated into the presented techno-economic and life-cycle assessments. This work is intended to provide an understanding of the performance, cost, and impact of capturing CO2 at the commercial scale and the impact of climate and regional siting on the considered passive DAC system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Residential Building Energy Efficiency Field Studies: Low-Rise Multifamily

In recent years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has conducted a series of research studies to validate energy efficient building technologies in the field. Much of the work has focused on single-family construction, and some has also addressed commercial energy codes. The work detailed in this DOE-funded study (EE0007616) focuses on low-rise multifamily buildings (three stories or fewer above grade) in various regions of the United States, and reports on how state-level building codes are being implemented, both in terms of observed characteristics and also in terms of estimated energy impacts. Nearly 100 buildings across four states—Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington—were sampled, which represent a range of climate types from mild temperature to very cold continental. Both common entry and outdoor entry buildings were included, and a parallel research project evaluated envelope air tightness and current still-evolving air tightness testing methods. Finally, a set of structured interviews of building designers and other relevant professionals was carried to out to gain more insight into this market. To the greatest extent possible, the methodology developed under the project for low-rise multifamily buildings mirrored the approach established by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for single-family residential buildings (https://www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/downloads/residential-building-energy-code-field-study). This included the general approach to sampling, recruitment, and data collection, as well as data analysis and presentation. The range of permitting dates for the sites encompassed two energy code cycles in most regions. All states in the study had adopted a variation of the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for the structure of their state code. The low-rise multifamily occupancy presents a hybrid building type: most of the building’s conditioned floor area was covered by the residential chapter of the code while portions of the building (such as corridors and common spaces) fell under the commercial code chapter. The key items assessed in this work were: Building Shell—exterior wall insulation, ceiling insulation, foundation insulation, windows. Common Areas—HVAC and lighting. Living Units—lighting, ventilation. A few items were not assessed in detail, given their relative paucity in this occupancy type; these included duct leakage, pipe insulation, and hot water circulation controls. Building characteristics were collected via a combination of architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing plan reviews and field inspections, and entered into a spreadsheet-based tool that was later queried to build a database. Data went through quality control both upon arrival and via a later semi-automated review and assurance process. Most of the data are presented graphically so that the reader can quickly assess compliance with the applicable energy codes (both by state and by code year). As a final step, EnergyPlus™ simulations were created for all buildings in the study to estimate both the as-found energy use intensity (EUI) and the energy and CO 2 that could be saved if features that were found to not meet code minimums were brought up to code. The savings estimates were tabulated for each of the four states in the study. The research team found that the single-family approach was largely applicable to low-rise multifamily buildings. This applies to both the data collection and the prototype EUI analysis. Most of the occupied space is living units and falls under residential energy codes, and many characteristics use similar envelope construction and relatively straightforward mechanical systems and lighting. One of the most challenging aspects of this work was to build an effective spreadsheet-based data collection instrument that could allow efficient collection of both building plan and field data. The research team is of the view that other methods could be equally effective if the work is done carefully with diligent quality control. The primary findings for the work center around the thermal envelope and mechanical systems and lighting at the sites: For thermal envelope components, the majority of buildings met or were better than the prescriptive code.This suggests that building designers and builders are aware of code requirements. In some cases, surveyed buildings were designed to qualify for energy efficiency certification programs. These buildings made up at least 20% of sampled buildings in each state. Almost all buildings met mechanical system efficiency requirements (for both living units and common areas). In some cases, sites employed systems that were considerably more efficient than required by the applicable energy code. Dwelling units had a majority of high-efficacy lighting, often in excess of the state’s residential code requirements. While high-efficacy fixtures were also typical in common areas (corridors and stairwells), lighting power densities (LPDs) in these areas were sometimes higher than levels dictated by the applicable part of the state commercial energy code. The simulation models run on a series of low-rise multifamily prototypes, informed by a composite of the field data collected, calculated annual EUIs of between 20 and 50 kBtu/ft2-yr, with the range representing the effects of both building characteristics and building location (climate zone). A detailed process (based on simulations of prototype buildings) was used to estimate the amount of avoided energy use that would occur if 100% adherence to energy codes were attained. The results indicated modest savings are attainable for items such as window thermal performance and common area lighting. The result is overall only a modest potential for additional energy savings, averaging about 10% of EUI.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Technology for Predictive Maintenance

The domestic nuclear power plant fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming preventive maintenance programs, thus driving up operation and maintenance costs to achieve high-capacity factors. Artificial intelligence and machine learning can help simplify complex problems, such as diagnosing equipment degradation, to enable more effective decision-making. Benefits will be felt not only within existing analog and digital instrumentation and control, but also work processes, the integration of people with technology, and most importantly, the business case. Together, these hold promise to make nuclear power more efficient and reduce costs associated with operation and maintenance. While the artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies hold significant promise in the nuclear industry, there are challenges or barriers to their adoption. This report outlines the those different machine learning adoption barriers (categorized as historical, technical, economic, regulatory, and user) that the industry must overcome to realize the full benefits of artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for long-term economic sustainability. This report also provides solutions for some of these barriers by focusing on improving the explainability of machine learning to encourage trust from the end-user. Trust and explainability are essential to machine learning adoption. This report focuses on research-developed solutions to some of these barriers while analyzing a non-safety-related system, namely the circulating water system. This system frequently experiences waterbox fouling which our models preemptively diagnoses then explains to the operator how those conclusions were reached. This report presents and discusses the inherent trade-off between machine learning performance (in terms of accuracy) and explainability, where highly accurate machine learning methods (such as deep-learning) are the least explainable, and the most explainable methods (such as decision trees) are the least accurate. In addition, explainability of artificial intelligence techniques in terms of transparency and post-hoc metrics are discussed. This report outlines the importance of data novelty and value of new information in evaluating both the explainability and trustworthiness. Novelty detection helps to establish consistency or inconsistency of the new data with respect to the training data. On the other hand, value of information could be a part of the user-centric visualization recommendation system that request additional information to be collected, thereby strengthening the machine learning outcomes. During this project, a copyrighted user-centric visualization that aligns with a human-in-the-loop approach was developed. The user-centric visualization presents different levels of information and can be tailored as per user credentials to gain user confidence. One of the salient features of the user-centric visualization is it presents machine learning methods with explainability metrics. A simplified version of the user-centric visualization was presented to 32 users with varying levels of machine learning expertise. Feedback was solicited to test the hypothesis that the app contained sufficient explainability and that the users would trust the algorithm. Overall, the app was positively received, and the hypothesis was supported. This report discusses the trust-but-verify framework – a potential approach to build user trust artificial intelligence. The framework discusses trust from the human level to artificial intelligence level. The fundamental premise of the trust but verify framework is derived from an observation of nuclear safety culture (i.e., nuclear power plant personnel do not rely on a singular source of data to make a decision). This also ties back to the user-centric visualization that presents different levels of information to achieve both explainability and trustworthiness of artificial intelligence. Even so, the adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning in the nuclear industry faces additional barriers, namely regulatory and stakeholder readiness. To overcome these challenges, new solutions must gain regulatory approval and cater to stakeholder needs. The Nuclear Regulatory Committee has a 5-year strategic plan which prepares them for reviewing artificial intelligence technologies in licensee submissions. Early and frequent engagement with the regulator is encouraged. Additionally, artificial intelligence solutions should incorporate human-in-the-loop considerations and offer explainability. Stakeholders must prepare by hiring or training staff to adapt to advancing technology in everyday plant tasks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Report on Year-4 of Water NSTF Matrix Testing: Facility Maintenance and Accident Testing

Under support from the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Office of Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART), a large-scale test facility has been constructed at Argonne National Laboratory to generate NQA-1 qualified validation data for passive decay heat removal systems in advanced reactors. The Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) reflects key features of a ½ scale, water-based, Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) and is intended to study the behavior, bound performance, and ultimately guide design decisions for passive decay heat removal systems for advanced reactors. In addition to the experimental activities detailed in this report, a supportive computational modeling effort is on-going which has been demonstrated to significantly strengthen the experimental program while also improving accuracy of the computer models. Together these create a mutually beneficial relationship integral to meeting the overall program objective of examining the heat removal performance of the RCCS concept. This report serves as a summary of maintenance and experimental activities during the program’s fourth year of water-based operation. A planned six-month maintenance period began in August 2021, during which major inspections, repairs, cleaning, and installation of new instrumentation and data acquisition hardware were conducted. Most significantly, two heaters that faulted during Year-3 were repaired, allowing the facility to resume use of the full heated section area and full range of available electric power. The remainder of the year consisted of eight months of test operations, during which the facility logged 211 hours of active heating across one bake-out (following the maintenance period) and seven matrix tests; five classifieds as Accepted per NQA-1, one as Trending, and one as Failed. Testing began by performing two repeat cases to confirm expected facility response and behavior during both single- and two-phase flow conditions, ensuring no changes were introduced during the maintenance period that might have altered the thermal-hydraulic characteristics of the facility. In continuation of the power parametric series initiated in previous years, a high-power test case was then performed examining heat removal performance at a decay heat load equivalent to 2.4 MWt, full-scale, a level exceeding maximum design targets. Additional testing then introduced various blockage scenarios along the network piping, examining the effects of partial and complete blockages of the flow paths on the system behavior and heat removal performance. A study of static boiling tests directed at understanding the geysering two-phase instability was also conducted. The loop was filled only to the bottom of the tank outlet, creating an open loop configuration that prevents any natural circulation flow from occurring, and the heaters were powered on until the facility reached saturation conditions. Following, a series of quasi-steady-state conditions were introduced by adjusting the inventory level in the adiabatic chimney piping at decreasingly lower elevations above the heated region. A strong correlation of geysering characteristics and loop level was observed, with flow and temperature excursions decreasing in intensity, but increasing in frequency, as the fill were reduced to lower elevations along the chimney piping. Once the level fell very low in the chimney, at points near the top of the heated section, the system reached a stable state of continuous boiling without any occurrence of geysering eruptions. A final significant testing accomplishment this year was successful completion of an “accident scenario” test, whose operating conditions were based on a prototypic decay heat curve provided by Framatome and scaled for the NSTF. This test began by establishing steady-state, single-phase “normal operation” conditions, before simulating an accident trip where the availability of active cooling systems was lost. Loop temperatures gradually increased until reaching saturation and subsequent two-phase boiling flow. Over the course of an extended operational period along the defined decay heat curve, steam boil-off caused gradual but continued depletion of liquid inventory until reaching a critically low level causing flow stagnation and cessation of natural circulation heat removal. At this point, after nearly 72 hours of continuous operation, a cold refill was performed to replenish the system inventory and allow the facility to re-establish closed loop natural circulation flow and return to a safe operational state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗