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At least 289 records · Page 16

Leonardo-BRDF: A New Generation Satellite Constellation

Instantaneous net radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere is one of the primary drivers of climate and global change. Since the dawn of the satellite era, great efforts and expense have gone into measuring this flux from single satellites and even (for a several-year period) from a constellation of three satellites called ERBE. However, the reflected solar flux is an angular and spectral integral over the so-called "BRDF" or Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function, which is the angular distribution of reflected solar radiation for each solar zenith angle and each wavelength. Previous radiation flux satellites could not measure instantaneous BRDF, so scientists have had to fall back on models or composites. Because their range of observed solar zenith angles was very limited due to sunsynchronous orbits, the resultant flux maps are too inaccurate to see the dynamics of radiation flux or to reliably correlate it with specific phenomena (hurricanes, biomass fires, urban pollution, dust outbreaks, etc.). Accuracy only becomes acceptable after monthly averaging, but this washes out almost all cause-and-effect information, further exacerbated by the lack of spectral resolution. Leonardo-BRDF is a satellite system designed to measure the instantaneous spectral BRDF using a formation of highly coordinated satellites, all pointing at the same Earth targets at the same time. It will allow scientists for the first time to assess the radiative forcing of climate due to specific phenomena, which is bound to be important in the ongoing debate about global warming and what is causing it. The formation is composed of two satellite types having, as instrument payloads, single highly-integrated miniature imaging spectrometers or radiometers. Two nearby "keystone" satellites anchor the formation and fly in static orbits. They employ wide field of view imaging spectrometers that are extremely light and compact. The keystone satellites are identical and can operate in alongtrack or cross-track mode, or anything in between, at ground command. This provides inherent system redundancy and cross-calibration capability. Several "wing-man" satellites in non-static orbits fly in formation up to 1000 km out from the keystone satellites to provide additional along- and cross-track angular sampling. They view the target(s) observed by the keystone satellites from different zenith and azimuth angles and are maneuverable within a limited range of zenith angle using thrusters, and within a large range of azimuth angle using clever orbit design. The wing-man satellites carry single miniature imaging radiometers with just a few wavelength bands in order to be lighter and more agile.

Esper, Jaime↗

An Estimate of the Likelihood for a Climatically Significant Volcanic Eruption Within the Present Decade (2000-2009)

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (i.e., those having a volcanic explosivity index, or VEI, equal to 4 or larger) per decade is found to span 2-11, with 96% located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere, A two-point moving average of the time series has higher values since the 1860s than before, measuring 8.00 in the 1910s (the highest value) and measuring 6.50 in the 1980s, the highest since the 18 1 0s' peak. On the basis of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that the two-point moving average for the 1990s will measure about 6.50 +/- 1.00, implying that about 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially, those having VEI equal to 5 or larger) nearly always have been associated with episodes of short-term global cooling, the occurrence of even one could ameliorate the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more VEI equal to 4 or larger events occurring within the next ten years is >99%, while it is about 49% for VEI equal to 5 or larger events and 18% for VEI equal to 6 or larger events. Hence, the likelihood that a, climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next 10 years appears reasonably high.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Temperature Trends in the TOVS Pathfinder Path A Data Set

TOVS (Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder) is the suite of infra-red and microwave sounding instruments, including HIRS-2 and MSU, that have flown on the NOAA Polar orbiting operational satellites TIROS-N, NOAA 6-14 from November 1978 to the present day. Data has been analyzed for the entire time period using a consistent methodology to produce twice daily per satellite global fields of surface skin temperature, atmospheric temperature-moisture profile, cloud top pressure, and fractional cloud cover, OLR and clear sky OLR, and precipitation. All parameters were found to depend on the orbit time of observation which differed as a function of time both because of differing initial satellite orbits and orbit drift. This must be accounted for before one can attempt to find trends in the data. Methodology to account for orbit drift will be shown. Trends will then be shown, over the 21 year period 1979-1999, for surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profile. There has been global warming near the surface which falls off rapidly with height. Trends will also be shown for values of MSU2R and MSU4 which are computed from the soundings. These will be compared to trends of MSU2R and MSU4 observed by Spencer and Christy. There is generally good agreement between Spencer and Christy MSU2R trends and those computed from the TOVS Pathfinder data set, with the largest differences over the tropics.

Susskind, J.↗

Ontolology Negotiation Between Scientific Archives

This paper describes an approach to ontology negotiation between information agents. Ontologies are declarative (data driven) expressions of an agent's "world": the objects, operations, facts, and rules that constitute the logical space within which an agent performs. Ontology negotiation enables agents to cooperate in performing a task, even if they are based on different ontologies. 'Me process allows agents to discover ontology conflicts and then, though incremental interpretation, clarification, and explanation, establish a common basis for communicating with each other. The need for ontology negotiation stems from the proliferation of information sources and of agents with widely varying specialty expertise. The unmanageability of massive amounts of web-based information is already becoming apparent. It is starting to have an impact on professions that rely on distributed archived information. If the expansion continues at its present rate without an ontology negotiation process being introduced, there will soon be no way to ensure the accuracy and completeness of information that scientists obtain from sources other than their own experiments. Ontology negotiation is becoming increasingly recognized as a crucial element of scalable agent technology. This is because agents, by their very nature, are supposed to operate with a fair amount of autonomy and independence from their end-users. Part of this independence is the ability to enlist other agents for help in performing a task (such as locating information on the web). The agents enlisted for help may be "owned" by a different end-user or organization (such as a document archive), and there is no guarantee that they will use the same terminology or understand the same concepts (objects, operators, theorems, rules) as the recruiting agent. For NASA, the need for ontology negotiation arises at the boundaries between scientific disciplines. For example: modeling the effects of global warming might involve knowledge about imaging, climate analysis, ecology, demographics, industrial economics, and biology. The need for ontology negotiation also arises at the boundaries between scientific programs. For example, a Principal Investigator may want to use information from a previous mission to complement downloads from the instruments currently deployed.

Bailin, Sidney C.↗

High-Performance, Low Environmental Impact Refrigerants

Refrigerants used in process and facilities systems in the US include R-12, R-22, R-123, R-134a, R-404A, R-410A, R-500, and R-502. All but R-134a, R-404A, and R-410A contain ozone-depleting substances that will be phased out under the Montreal Protocol. Some of the substitutes do not perform as well as the refrigerants they are replacing, require new equipment, and have relatively high global warming potentials (GWPs). New refrigerants are needed that addresses environmental, safety, and performance issues simultaneously. In efforts sponsored by Ikon Corporation, NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), ETEC has developed and tested a new class of refrigerants, the Ikon (registered) refrigerants, based on iodofluorocarbons (IFCs). These refrigerants are nonflammable, have essentially zero ozone-depletion potential (ODP), low GWP, high performance (energy efficiency and capacity), and can be dropped into much existing equipment.

McCullough, E. T.↗

An Estimation of the Likelihood of Significant Eruptions During 2000-2009 Using Poisson Statistics on Two-Point Moving Averages of the Volcanic Time Series

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (volcanic explosivity index (VEI)>=4) per decade spans 2-11, with 96 percent located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere. A two-point moving average of the volcanic time series has higher values since the 1860's than before, being 8.00 in the 1910's (the highest value) and 6.50 in the 1980's, the highest since the 1910's peak. Because of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that its value for the 1990's will measure approximately 6.50 +/- 1, implying that approximately 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially those having VEI>=5) nearly always have been associated with short-term episodes of global cooling, the occurrence of even one might confuse our ability to assess the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more events with a VEI>=4 within the next ten years is >99 percent. It is approximately 49 percent for an event with a VEI>=5, and 18 percent for an event with a VEI>=6. Hence, the likelihood that a climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next ten years appears reasonably high.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability

These four points summarize our work to date. (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability. Previous research by us and colleagues suggested that the Sun might at present be showing unusually low photometric variability compared to other sun-like stars. Those early results would question the suitability of the technique of using sun-like stars as proxies for solar irradiance change on time scales of decades to centuries. However, our results indicate the contrary: the Sun's observed short-term (seasonal) and longterm (year-to-year) brightness variations closely agree with observed brightness variations in stars of similar mass and age. (2) We have demonstrated an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000). Variable fluxes of either solar charged particles or cosmic rays, or both, may influence the terrestrial tropospheric temperature. The geographical pattern of the correlation is consistent with our interpretation of an extra-terrestrial charged particle forcing. (3) Possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations. The key points of our proposed climate hypersensitivity mechanism are: (a) The Sun is more variable in the UV (ultraviolet) than in the visible. However, the increased UV irradiance is mainly absorbed in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere rather than at the surface. (b) Absorption in the stratosphere raises the temperature moderately around the vicinity of the tropopause, and tends to stabilize the atmosphere against vertical convective/diffusive transport, thus decreasing the flux of heat and moisture carried upward from surface. (c) The decrease in the upward convection of heat and moisture tends to raise the surface temperature because a drier upper atmosphere becomes less cloudy, which in turn allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. (4) Natural variability in an ocean-atmosphere climate model. We use a 14-region, 6-layer, global thermo-hydrodynamic ocean-atmosphere model to study natural climate variability. All the numerical experiments were performed with no change in the prescribed external boundary conditions (except for the seasonal cycle of the Sun's tilt angle). Therefore, the observed inter-annual variability is of an internal kind. The model results are helpful toward the understanding of the role of nonlinearity in climate change. We have demonstrated a range of possible climate behaviors using our newly developed ocean-atmosphere model. These include climate configurations with no interannual variability, with multi-year periodicities, with continuous chaos, or with chaotically occuring transitions between two discrete substrates. These possible modes of climate behavior are all possible for the real climate, as well as the model. We have shown that small temporary climate influences can trigger shifts both in the mean climate, and among these different types of behavior. Such shifts are not only theoretically plausible, as shown here and elsewhere; they are omnipresent in the climate record on time scales from several years to the age of the Earth. This has two apparently opposite implications for the possibility of anthropogenic global warming. First, any warming which might occur as a result of human influence would be only a fraction of the small-to-large unpredictable natural changes and changes which result from other external causes. On the other hand, small temporary influences such as human influence do have the potential of causing large permanent shifts in mean climate and interannual variability.

Baliunas, Sallie L.↗

Overview of CMC Development Activities in NASA's Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) Program

The primary objective of the UEET (Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology) Program is to address two of the most critical propulsion issues: performance/efficiency and reduced emissions. High performance, low emissions engine systems will lead to significant improvement in local air quality, minimum impact on ozone depletion and level to an overall reduction in aviation contribution to global warming. The Materials and Structures for High Performance project will develop and demonstrate advanced high temperature materials to enable high-performance, high efficiency, and environmentally compatible propulsion systems.

Brewer, Dave↗

Southern Ocean Seasonal Net Production from Satellite, Atmosphere, and Ocean Data Sets

A new climatology of monthly air-sea O2 flux was developed using the net air-sea heat flux as a template for spatial and temporal interpolation of sparse hydrographic data. The climatology improves upon the previous climatology of Najjar and Keeling in the Southern Hemisphere, where the heat-based approach helps to overcome limitations due to sparse data coverage. The climatology is used to make comparisons with productivity derived from CZCS images. The climatology is also used in support of an investigation of the plausible impact of recent global warming an oceanic O2 inventories.

Keeling, Ralph F.↗

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission: Monitoring the Global Tropics for 3 Years and Beyond

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) was launched in November 1997 as a joint U.S.-Japanese mission to advance understanding of the global energy and water cycle by providing distributions of rainfall and latent heating over the global tropics. As a part of NASA's Earth System Enterprise, TRMM seeks to understand the mechanisms through which changes in tropical rainfall influence global circulation. Additionally, a goal is to improve the ability to model these processes in order to predict global circulations and rainfall variability at monthly and longer time scales. Such understanding has implications for assessing climate processes related to El Nino/La Nina and Global Warming. TRMM has also provided unexpected and exciting new knowledge and applications in areas related to hurricane monitoring, lightning, pollution, hydrology, and other areas. This CD-ROM includes a self-contained PowerPoint presentation that provides an overview of TRMM and significant science results; a set of data movies or animation; and listings of current TRMM-related publications in the literature.

Shepherd, Marshall↗

Statistical Models of Areal Distribution of Fragmented Land Cover Types

Imagery of coarse resolution, such weather satellite imagery with 1 square kilometer pixels, is increasingly used to monitor dynamic and fragmented types of land surface types, such as scars from recent fires and ponds in wetlands. Accurate estimates of these land cover types at regional to global scales are required to assess the roles of fires and wetlands in global warming, yet difficult to compute when much of the area is accounted for by fragments about the same size as the pixels. In previous research, we found that size distribution of the fragments in several example scenes fit simple two-parameter models and related effects of coarse resolution to errors in area estimates based on pixel counts. We summarize our model based approach to improved area estimations and report on progress to develop accurate areas estimates based on modeling the size distribution of the fragments, including analysis of size distributions on an expanded set of maps developed from digital imagery.

Hlavka, C.↗

Fragmented Land Cover Types and Estimation of Area with Course Spatial Resolution Imagery

Imagery of coarse resolution, such weather satellite imagery with 1 sq km pixels, is increasingly used to monitor dynamic and fragmented types of land surface types, such as scars from recent fires and ponds in wetlands. Accurate estimates of these land cover types at regional to global scales are required to assess the roles of fires and wetlands in global warming, yet difficult to compute when much of the area is accounted for by fragments about the same size as the pixels. In previous research, we found that size distribution of the fragments in several example scenes fit simple two-parameter models and related effects of coarse resolution to errors in area estimates based on pixel counts. We report on progress to develop accurate area estimates based on modelling the size distribution of the fragments, including analysis of size distributions on an expanded set of maps developed from digital imagery and a test of a procedure to correct for effects of coarse spatial resolution.

Hlavka, Chris↗

Quantifying Fractional Ground Cover on the Climate Sensitive High Plains Using AVIRIS and Landsat TM Data

The High Plains is an economically important and climatologically sensitive region of the United States and Canada. The High Plains contain 100,000 sq km of Holocene sand dunes and sand sheets that are currently stabilized by natural vegetation. Droughts and the larger threat of global warming are climate phenomena that could cause depletion of natural vegetation and make this region susceptible to sand dune reactivation. This thesis is part of a larger study that is assessing the effect of climate variability on the natural vegetation that covers the High Plains using Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 data. The question this thesis addresses is how can fractional vegetation cover be mapped with the Landsat instruments using linear spectral mixture analysis and to what accuracy. The method discussed in this thesis made use of a high spatial and spectral resolution sensor called AVIRIS (Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer) and field measurements to test vegetation mapping in three Landsat 7 sub-scenes. Near-simultaneous AVIRIS images near Ft. Morgan, Colorado and near Logan, New Mexico were acquired on July 10, 1999 and September 30, 1999, respectively. The AVIRIS flights preceded Landsat 7 overpasses by approximately one hour. These data provided the opportunity to test spectral mixture algorithms with AVIRIS and to use these data to constrain the multispectral mixed pixels of Landsat 7. The comparisons of mixture analysis between the two instruments showed that AVIRIS endmembers can be used to unmix Landsat 7 data with good estimates of soil cover, and reasonable estimates of non-photosynthetic vegetation and green vegetation. Landsat 7 derived image endmembers correlate with AVIRIS fractions, but the error is relatively large and does not give a precise estimate of cover.

Warner, Amanda Susan↗

Land and Land-use Change in the Climate Sensitive High Plains: An Automated Approach with Landsat

The High Plains is an economically important and climatologically sensitive region of the United States and Canada. The High Plains contain 100,000 sq km of Holocene sand dunes and sand sheets that are currently stabilized by natural vegetation. Droughts and the larger threat of global warming are climate phenomena that could cause depletion of natural vegetation and make this region susceptible to sand dune reactivation. The original proposal was directed toward the use of Landsat TM data to establish the state and ongoing changes of the surface in the 1.2 million sq. km, semi-arid High Plains region of the central US, A key objective was to develop a model to predict the reactivation of the 100,000 sq. km of Holocene dunes found on the High Plains during an extended drought. At least one Landsat 5 image per year for 1985, 1988 and 1996 was obtained for 32 scenes on the High Plains to coincide with wet and dry years. Additional Landsat 7 data were acquired for 1999 and 2000 primarily for Colorado and Nebraska. As luck would have it, there was no severe drought during the study period 1985-2000. Attention was focused on developing methods for mapping dry vs. green vegetation on sparsely vegetated rangelands in sandy soils, since these were the areas most susceptible to surface reactivation during a drought.

Goetz, Alexander F.↗

Trends of Measured Climate Forcing Agents

The growth rate of climate forcing by measured greenhouse gases peaked near 1980 at almost 5 W/sq m per century. This growth rate has since declined to approximately equal to 3 W/sq m per century, largely because of cooperative international actions. We argue that trends can be reduced to the level needed for the moderate "alternative" climate scenario (approximately equal to 2 W/M2 per century for the next 50 years) by means of concerted actions that have other benefits, but the forcing reductions are not automatic "co-benefits" of actions that slow CO2 emissions. Current trends of climate forcings by aerosols remain very uncertain. Nevertheless, practical constraints on changes in emission levels suggest that global warming at a rate + 0.15 +/- 0.05 C per decade will occur over the next several decades.

Hansen, James E.↗

TOVS Pathfinder Path A: A Boon for Climatologists

Is it cooler than normal or warmer? Are we having an El Nino or La Nina? Haw intense is it, and how is it affecting the atmosphere? These are sorts of questions that climate studies hope to answer. Reaching further into the past than the short memory of the atmosphere and projecting far into the past than the future, climate studies examine trends and changes that take place over decades. Looking at this length of time is necessary to monitor and understand climate variability and to determine if significant trends exist - global warming seasons of increased flooding, a coming drought. For climatologists, these, studies must have good data sets. Ideally, data would be collected continuously over a period of decades without any major changes to the instrumentation us for collection, which would introduce incongruities and make trends hard to follow. Also, the data should be in the form of time and space-averaged measurements or estimates convenient for climate studies.

Source record↗

Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

Rind, David↗

Precipitation Measurement from Space: The Next Generation

During the coming decade, the internationally organized Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will take an important step in creating a global rain observing system from space based on an international fleet of satellites operated as a constellation of opportunity. One perspective for understanding the nature of the mission is that it will be a hierarchical system of datastreams beginning with very high caliber combined dual frequency rain-radar/passive microwave rain-radiometer retrievals, to high caliber rain-radiometer only retrievals, and then on to blends of the former datastreams with additional lower-caliber microwave- and infrared-based rain retrievals. Within the context of the now emerging global water & energy cycle (GWEC) research programs of a number of research agencies throughout the world, the GPM mission serves as a centerpiece space mission for improving our understanding of the Earth's water cycle from global scale and on down to regional scales and below. One of the salient problems within our current understanding of the global water and energy cycle is determining whether a change in the rate of the water cycle is accompanying changes in climate, e.g., global water cycle acceleration accompanying global warming. As there are a number of ways in which to define a rate-change of the water cycle, it has not always been clear as to what constitutes a conclusive determination. This seminar presents an overview of the GPM Mission and how its overriding scientific objectives for climate, weather, and hydrology flow from the anticipated improvements that are being planned for the constellation-based measuring system, and how this mission may offer, over the long run, a more fundamental means to ascertain water cycle accelerations.

Smith, Eric A.↗