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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On the Interaction Between a Flow Instability and Inertial Particles in Supersonic Jet Plume-Surface Interaction

Extraterrestrial landings often require spacecraft to deploy supersonic jets directed at dusty planetary surfaces to ensure controlled descents. This interaction, termed plume-surface interaction (PSI), critically influences crater formation and the dynamics of ejected particles, which can obscure vision, damage onboard sensors, and impact nearby infrastructure with significant particle velocities. The physics of PSI remain poorly understood due to the complexities in simulating the involved multiphysics and experimentally replicating reduced atmospheric pressure conditions. This article discusses a collaborative effort to investigate PSI in reduced atmospheric pressure environments using a Mach 5.3 jet impinging on a granular bed. The results highlight observations of an azimuthal pattern in the ejecta distribution, characterized by alternating ejecta streaks of varying particle concentrations. This phenomenon suggests the presence of a low Reynolds number instability, a notable discovery given the supersonic nature of the jet.

PSI↗
NASA NTRS2009

NASA Tech Briefs, October 2009

Topics covered include: Light-Driven Polymeric Bimorph Actuators; Guaranteeing Failsafe Operation of Extended-Scene Shack-Hartmann Wavefront Sensor Algorithm; Cloud Water Content Sensor for Sounding Balloons and Small UAVs; Pixelized Device Control Actuators for Large Adaptive Optics; T-Slide Linear Actuators; G4FET Implementations of Some Logic Circuits; Electrically Variable or Programmable Nonvolatile Capacitors; System for Automated Calibration of Vector Modulators; Complementary Paired G4FETs as Voltage-Controlled NDR Device; Three MMIC Amplifiers for the 120-to-200 GHz Frequency Band; Low-Noise MMIC Amplifiers for 120 to 180 GHz; Using Ozone To Clean and Passivate Oxygen-Handling Hardware; Metal Standards for Waveguide Characterization of Materials; Two-Piece Screens for Decontaminating Granular Material; Mercuric Iodide Anticoincidence Shield for Gamma-Ray Spectrometer; Improved Method of Design for Folding Inflatable Shells; Ultra-Large Solar Sail; Cooperative Three-Robot System for Traversing Steep Slopes; Assemblies of Conformal Tanks; Microfluidic Pumps Containing Teflon[Trademark] AF Diaphragms; Transparent Conveyor of Dielectric Liquids or Particles; Multi-Cone Model for Estimating GPS Ionospheric Delays; High-Sensitivity GaN Microchemical Sensors; On the Divergence of the Velocity Vector in Real-Gas Flow; Progress Toward a Compact, Highly Stable Ion Clock; Instruments for Imaging from Far to Near; Reflectors Made from Membranes Stretched Between Beams; Integrated Risk and Knowledge Management Program -- IRKM-P; LDPC Codes with Minimum Distance Proportional to Block Size; Constructing LDPC Codes from Loop-Free Encoding Modules; MMICs with Radial Probe Transitions to Waveguides; Tests of Low-Noise MMIC Amplifier Module at 290 to 340 GHz; and Extending Newtonian Dynamics to Include Stochastic Processes.

Source record↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Two-Phase Azimuthal Instability Generated By A Supersonic Jet Impinging on A Granular Bed

A persistent azimuthal pattern featuring alternate high and low concentration of ejecta emanating from the area where a supersonic jet (Mach 5.3) impinges on a bed of particles in a near-lunar vacuum condition is studied experimentally. Although this peculiar phenomenon has been documented in early studies motivated by extraterrestrial landing, the mechanism of this pattern is not clearly understood. Recently, a series of experiments were conducted at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center inside a 4.5 m vacuum chamber over a range of reduced ambient pressure. Experimental results show vibrant azimuthal patterns, which are clearest at low ambient pressure. The pattern is shown to be driven by the flow instability at low Reynolds number, despite the supersonic jet employed. The flow instability leads to azimuthal vortex lines, which expel ejecta into streaks between two neighboring vortex lines. A simple model is proposed to explain the observed phenomenon.

Plume Surface Interaction↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermal Stress Modeling and Analysis of Packed-bed Thermocline Energy Storage Tank for INL Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS)

The Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is a thermal-hydraulic flow loop to support the integration of co-located multiple experimental systems, where a packed-bed thermal energy storage (TES) is installed as a thermal buffer and storage unit for TEDS. The packed-bed TES is adopted in TEDS because of its benefit as a low-cost single-tank storage option compared to the traditional two-tank storage. However, thermal ratcheting is one potential design concern which is caused by the rearrangement of granular filler inside a packed-bed tank during continuous thermal cycling operation of the packed-bed TES tank. If the thermally induced stress exceeds yield strength of the tank wall, it may cause catastrophic consequences like rupture of the thermal storage tank. Thus, it is crucial to understand the phenomenon to ensure the robust operation. Based on the temperature boundary conditions given by transient thermal analyses with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, the thermal ratcheting analysis is then conducted to evaluate the hoop stress and resultant thermal ratcheting potential of the TES tanks with two different modeling approaches: (1) infinite rigidity model and (2) Drucker-Prager (DP) model. The validity of each modeling method was examined by comparing the numerical simulation with the experimental data obtained from the packed-bed TES tank for Solar One Plant and evaluate the thermal ratcheting potential of the TEDS TES tank.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mesoscale simulations of pressure-shear loading of granular tungsten carbide

Numerical simulations of pressure-shear loading of a granular material are performed using the shock physics code CTH. A simple mesoscale model for the granular material is used that consists of a randomly packed arrangement of solid circular or spherical grains of uniform size separated by vacuum. The grain material is described by a simple shock equation of state, elastic perfectly plastic strength model, and fracture model with baseline parameters for WC taken from previous mesoscale modeling work. Simulations using the baseline material parameters are performed at the same initial conditions of pressure-shear experiments on dry WC powders. Except for some localized flow regions appearing in simulations with an approximate treatment of sliding interfaces among grains, the samples respond elastically during shear, which is in contrast to experimental observations. By extending the simulations to higher shear wave amplitudes, macroscopic shear failure of the simulated samples is observed with the shear strength increasing with increasing stress confinement. The shear strength is also found to be strongly dependent on the grain interface treatment and on the fracture stress of the grains, though the variation in shear strength due to fracture stress decreases with increasing stress confinement. At partial compactions, the transverse velocity histories show strain-hardening behavior followed by formation of a shear interface that extends through the transverse dimensions of the sample. Near full compaction, no strain hardening is observed and, instead, the sample transitions sharply from an elastic response to formation of an internal shear interface. Agreement with experiment is shown to worsen with increasing confinement stress with simulations overpredicting the shear strengths measured in experiment. The source of the disagreement can be ultimately attributed to the Eulerian nature of the simulations, which do not treat contact and fracture realistically.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermal Modeling and Simulation of the Packed-bed Thermal Energy Storage Combined with INL Thermal Energy Distribution System

Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Lab (DETAIL) at Idaho National Laboratory is to support experimental demonstration and validation research on Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy System [1]. The Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) is a thermal-hydraulic flow loop in DETAIL with its own dedicated control system to support the integration of co-located multiple experimental systems, where a packed-bed thermal energy storage (TES) is installed as a thermal buffer and storage unit. Among various TES options, the packed-bed TES is adopted in TEDS because it offers a low-cost single-tank thermal storage option compared to the traditional two-tank TES. However, since the TES tank is filled with granular fillers having different thermophysical properties from those of TES tank wall, there is a potential thermo-mechanical issue to be carefully addressed like thermal ratcheting which may pose a significant design concern for the packed-bed TES tank. Thermal ratcheting is a thermomechanical process caused by the repeated rearrangement of granular filler inside a TES tank during continuous thermal cycling operation of the packed-bed TES system. If the thermally induced stress exceeds the yield strength of a TES tank wall, catastrophic consequences may happen like rupture of the TES tank. Thus, it is important to understand the phenomenon to ensure the robust operation of the packed-bed TES tank. Given that thermal ratcheting is caused by complex interaction of thermal transport in the porous bed and solid mechanics, the accurate prediction of transient thermal behavior of the packed-bed TES tank, which is the focus of this paper, is critical to the reliable thermal ratcheting analysis. This paper discusses the numerical modeling, simulation, and validation studies that are ongoing at INL to investigate the transient thermal behavior of the packed-bed TES. Of particular concern is the transient thermal process occurring in the packed-bed TES unit that is operated in conjunction with the INL TEDS. The main goal of this research is three-fold: (i) provide preliminary insights into the transient thermal behavior of the TEDS TES tank, (ii) support the thermal measurement and validation plan for TEDS experiment, and (iii) provide transient thermal boundary conditions to support the reliable thermal ratcheting analysis of the TEDS TES tank. For the transient thermal modeling and analysis, a CFD model was developed, and the validity of the modeling approach was examined via comparing the numerical simulation results with the experimental data obtained from various design characteristics of packed-bed TES tanks. Then, the present modeling method was applied for the transient thermal analysis of the TEDS TES tank, and the results are discussed along with the potential improvement of data acquisition strategy for the future TEDS experiments for more precise validation study.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reversible to irreversible transitions for cyclically driven particles on periodic obstacle arrays

Here, we examine the collective dynamics of disks moving through a square array of obstacles under cyclic square wave driving. Below a critical density, we find that the system organizes into a reversible state in which the disks return to the same positions at the end of every drive cycle. Above this density, the dynamics are irreversible and the disks do not return to the same positions after each cycle. The critical density depends strongly on the angle θ between the driving direction and a symmetry axis of the obstacle array, with the highest critical densities appearing at commensurate angles such as θ = 0° and θ = 45° and the lowest critical densities falling at θ = arctan (0.618), the inverse of the golden ratio, where the flow is the most degenerate. As the density increases, the number of cycles required to reach a reversible state grows as a power law with an exponent near ν = 1.36, similar to what is found in periodically driven colloidal and superconducting vortex systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Systematically Improving Espresso: Insights from Mathematical Modeling and Experiment

Espresso is a beverage brewed using hot, high-pressure water forced through a bed of roasted coffee. Despite being one of the most widely consumed coffee formats, it is also the most susceptible to variation. Here, we report a novel model, complimented by experiment, that is able to isolate the contributions of several brewing variables, thereby disentangling some of the sources of variation in espresso extraction. Under the key assumption of homogeneous flow through the coffee bed, a monotonic decrease in extraction yield with increasingly coarse grind settings is predicted. However, experimental measurements show a peak in the extraction yield versus grind setting relationship, with lower extraction yields at both very coarse and fine settings. This result strongly suggests that inhomogeneous flow is operative at fine grind settings, resulting in poor reproducibility and wasted raw material. With instruction from our model, we outline a procedure to eliminate these shortcomings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2012

Nanoporous Materials in Atmosphere Revitalization

Atmospheric Revitalization (AR) is the term the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) uses to encompass the engineered systems that maintain a safe, breathable gaseous atmosphere inside a habitable space cabin. An AR subsystem is a key part of the Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) system for habitable space cabins. The ultimate goal for AR subsystem designers is to 'close the loop', that is, to capture gaseous human metabolic products, specifically water vapor (H2O) and Carbon dioxide (CO2), for maximal Oxygen (o2) recovery and to make other useful resources from these products. The AR subsystem also removes trace chemical contaminants from the cabin atmosphere to preserve cabin atmospheric quality, provides O2 and may include instrumentation to monitor cabin atmospheric quality. Long duration crewed space exploration missions require advancements in AR process technologies in order to reduce power consumption and mass and to increase reliability compared to those used for shorter duration missions that are typically limited to Low Earth Orbit. For example, current AR subsystems include separate processors and process air flow loops for removing metabolic CO2 and volatile organic tract contaminants (TCs). Physical adsorbents contained in fixed, packed beds are employed in these processors. Still, isolated pockets of high carbon dioxide have been suggested as a trigger for crew headaches and concern persists about future cabin ammonia (NH3) levels as compared with historical flights. Developers are already focused on certain potential advancements. ECLS systems engineers envision improving the AR subsystem by combining the functions of TC control and CO2 removal into a single regenerable process and moving toward structured sorbents - monoliths - instead of granular material. Monoliths present a lower pressure drop and eliminate particle attrition problems that result from bed containment. New materials and configurations offer promise for lowering cabin levels of CO2 and NH3 as well as reducing power requirements and increasing reliability. This chapter summarizes the challenges faced by ECLS system engineers in pursuing these goals, and the promising materials developments that may be part of the technical solution for challenges of crewed space exploration beyond LEO.

Hernandez-Maldonado, J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Multi-partitioning for ADI-schemes on message passing architectures

A kind of discrete-operator splitting called Alternating Direction Implicit (ADI) has been found to be useful in simulating fluid flow problems. In particular, it is being used to study the effects of hot exhaust jets from high performance aircraft on landing surfaces. Decomposition techniques that minimize load imbalance and message-passing frequency are described. Three strategies that are investigated for implementing the NAS Scalar Penta-diagonal Parallel Benchmark (SP) are transposition, pipelined Gaussian elimination, and multipartitioning. The multipartitioning strategy, which was used on Ethernet, was found to be the most efficient, although it was considered only a moderate success because of Ethernet's limited communication properties. The efficiency derived largely from the coarse granularity of the strategy, which reduced latencies and allowed overlap of communication and computation.

Vanderwijngaart, Rob F.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Reconfigurable Neural Network ASIC for Detector Front-End Data Compression at the HL-LHC

Despite advances in the programmable logic capabilities of modern trigger systems, a significant bottleneck remains in the amount of data to be transported from the detector to off-detector logic where trigger decisions are made. We demonstrate that a neural network (NN) autoencoder model can be implemented in a radiation-tolerant application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) to perform lossy data compression alleviating the data transmission problem while preserving critical information of the detector energy profile. For our application, we consider the high-granularity calorimeter from the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The advantage of the machine learning approach is in the flexibility and configurability of the algorithm. By changing the NN weights, a unique data compression algorithm can be deployed for each sensor in different detector regions and changing detector or collider conditions. To meet area, performance, and power constraints, we perform quantization-aware training to create an optimized NN hardware implementation. The design is achieved through the use of high-level synthesis tools and the hls4ml framework and was processed through synthesis and physical layout flows based on a low-power (LP)-CMOS 65-nm technology node. The flow anticipates 200 Mrad of ionizing radiation to select gates and reports a total area of 3.6 mm 2 and consumes 95 mW of power. The simulated energy consumption per inference is 2.4 nJ. Furthermore, this is the first radiation-tolerant on-detector ASIC implementation of an NN that has been designed for particle physics applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data From Experiments on Bubbling Fluidization of Zeolite in a Rectangular Bubbling Fluidized Bed

Fluidization experiments were conducted in a lab-scale rectangular bubbling fluidized bed with the objective of generating a high-quality dataset for model validation and artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) training. Zeolite was chosen as the bed material, and the fluidizing medium was air as supplied by a compressor. Three different flow rates at the inlet were chosen such that the particles were fluidized but not elutriated from the system. The test matrix involved randomization and replicates to provide uncertainty estimates as well as four different batches of zeolite as the bed material. The quantities of interest obtained from this study were statistics of differential pressures, interface heights, and particle velocities. Considering all the components of the elaborate test plan, the results obtained were consistent and reproducible. Characterization tests were performed to estimate particle properties including size, density, coefficient of friction, coefficient of restitution, and minimum fluidization velocity. In addition, the angle of repose from granular discharge experiments has been reported to account for rolling friction, though its effect on the overall process is expected to be negligible.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Integrated Multiscale Experimental-Numerical Analysis on Reconsolidation of Salt-Clay Mixture for Disposal of Heat-Generating Waste (Final NEUP Technical Report)

The overall purpose of this research is to improve understanding of THMC coupling effect on the reconsolidation of granular (or crushed) salt-clay mixture used for seal systems of shafts and drifts in salt repositories. This proposed work is partially motivated by the recent work on the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) that shows the promising sealing capability of clay-salt mixture compared to crushed salt. In particular, primary emphasis is to develop a fully integrated multiscale experiment-numerical study to determine and explain what leads to the superior sealing ability of the clay-salt mixture. These research activities are designed to seek further understanding of (1) why clay additives may enhance the fluid trapping and (2) whether this flow barrier effect may prevail under different combinations of temperature, confining pressure, deviatoric stress and other foreseeable environmental factors. If successful, this enhanced flow trapping ability of the seal provides significant improvement to the seal and repository performance and therefore make the repository safer in the long-term. The experiment component includes microstructural investigation and macroscopic tests on a reconsolidated salt-clay mixture. In the microstructural study, the goal is to (1) characterize microscopic distributions of distinct phases (e.g., clay, salt crystal boundaries, trapped brine, and pore) to examine the connectivity of the pore network inside the salt-clay mixture with different amounts of clay additive and moisture content and (2) analyze multiscale imaging data to reconstruct the polycrystalline microstructures for numerical simulations. Meanwhile, macroscopic tests are performed to analyze how clay alters the failure/creep mechanisms in the salt-clay mixture. Microscopic and macroscopic experimental observations will both be used to calibrate and validate a multiscale model that explicitly simulates the capillary and multiphase flow in the connected pores and the deformation due to the presence of intra-crystalline brine at the pore scale via a new polyhedral discrete element–lattice Boltzmann method (DEM-LBM) coupling model. The pore-scale simulations are homogenized via an upscaling procedure that converts pore-scale information (e.g. force exerted on grain boundary, sliding, pressure-solution) to continuum measures (e.g. Cauchy stress, Darcy’s flow) at each integration point in the macroscopic multiphase TMHC model. This multiscale scheme will allow coupling be- tween high-fidelity simulations of brine-salt-clay interaction and the macroscopic TMHC model. The multiscale model helps the understanding of how the trapped brine inclusion affects the pressure-solution mechanism with the presence of clay and moisture. This work brings new insight into the sealing capacity of salt-clay mixture under elevated temperature over a long period of time - a key to evaluating the potential of salt-clay mixture usage for salt repositories.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production

Plastics show the strongest production growth of all bulk materials over the last decade. The industry’s current growth trajectory is exponential and plastic production is expected to double or triple by 2050. The rapidly increasing production of plastics and the continued reliance on fossil fuels for production, have contributed to numerous environmental problems and health harms. As a result, plastic pollution has become an increasing threat to natural ecosystems, human health and climate. However, there is a lack of granularity on the contribution of the primary plastics specifically to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their impact on the remaining global carbon budget needed to stay below a 1.5°C or 2°C global average temperature rise. In this report, we explore the contribution of primary plastic production to climate change disaggregated by polymer and technology. To this end, we have developed comprehensive bottom-up modeling of GHG emissions from global primary plastic production, with a special focus on polymer value chains. We have analyzed the results under various growth scenarios in the context of carbon budgets compatible with a 1.5°C global trajectory. Modeling includes the material flows of all production stages, processes and technologies used in primary plastic production value chains, including from the extraction of fossil fuels required for production to shaping the final product. We specifically focus on nine major types of fossil fuelbased plastic polymers that are produced and consumed in large quantities: three types of polyethylene (PE) – low-density (LDPE), linear low-density (LLDPE), and high-density (HDPE) – as well as polypropylene (PP); polyethylene terephthalate (PET); polyvinyl chloride (PVC); polystyrene (PS) and other key styrene-based plastics such as styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and polyurethane (PU). Together these account for about 80% of plastics production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production

Plastics show the strongest production growth of all bulk materials over the last decade. The industry’s current growth trajectory is exponential and plastic production is expected to double or triple by 2050. The rapidly increasing production of plastics and the continued reliance on fossil fuels for production, have contributed to numerous environmental problems and health harms. As a result, plastic pollution has become an increasing threat to natural ecosystems, human health and climate. However, there is a lack of granularity on the contribution of the primary plastics specifically to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their impact on the remaining global carbon budget needed to stay below a 1.5°C or 2°C global average temperature rise. In this report, we explore the contribution of primary plastic production to climate change disaggregated by polymer and technology. To this end, we have developed comprehensive bottom-up modeling of GHG emissions from global primary plastic production, with a special focus on polymer value chains. We have analyzed the results under various growth scenarios in the context of carbon budgets compatible with a 1.5°C global trajectory. Modeling includes the material flows of all production stages, processes and technologies used in primary plastic production value chains, including from the extraction of fossil fuels required for production to shaping the final product. We specifically focus on nine major types of fossil fuel-based plastic polymers that are produced and consumed in large quantities: three types of polyethylene (PE) – low-density (LDPE), linear low-density (LLDPE), and high-density (HDPE) – as well as polypropylene (PP); polyethylene terephthalate (PET); polyvinyl chloride (PVC); polystyrene (PS) and other key styrene-based plastics such as styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and polyurethane (PU). Together these account for about 80% of plastics production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Demonstration of in-Situ Resource Utilization of Lunar Regolith for Plant Growing Systems Through Scaled Capillary Models

The development of reliable and bioregenerative crop growth production systems is vital for human exploration into deep space. As the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) prepares for the Artemis missions, scientists need to find a way to provide consistent and sufficient water delivery for all stages of a plant’s life cycle. NASA has been able to successfully model passive flow through felt material, to mimic the water uptake and transport through a plant, in microgravity. However, more studies need to be conducted to adapt the model for a substrate-based system and incorporate how flow will change during each stage of plant growth. For future missions, payload requirements to support crop production systems will need to be limited, leading to the use of available resources, such as lunar regolith. Although numerous lunar regolith simulants are commercially available, few have been evaluated for their suitability in agricultural applications. First, a base regolith simulant will need to be identified based on its physical and chemical properties. Then, additional amendments to improve the properties of the simulants to support plant growth will be identified. The design and composition of the substrate will be based on water transport requirements for different stages of plant growth. Scaled capillary models can be utilized to study surface-tension driven flows through various designer substrates to modify the physical properties of the selected regolith simulant. These models can accurately represent how flow will act in a reduced gravity environment, which can be used to design a full-scale facility for surface missions. This project will aid space researchers in the design of future crop production systems for surface missions by creating a refined model that can be used at all stages of plant growth and utilize in situ resources.

Fluids↗
DOE OSTI2021

Represent precipitation-induced geological hazards in Earth system models using artificial intelligence

Precipitation-induced geological hazards, such as debris flow, landslides, mudflow and rockfalls (hereafter referred to as landslides), pose serious threats to public safety in many areas through the world. As residential properties and infrastructure in the US have increasingly expanded into landslide-prone areas and the drivers of landslides (e.g., wildfires and hurricanes) are predicted to intensify under climate warming, losses and fatalities from landslides are likely to increase in the future. Although our understanding of geoenvironmental factors and mechanisms contributing to landslides has greatly improved, only moderate progress has been made in predicting landslides out of well-studied watersheds. Furthermore, explicitly representing various landslide-related processes in Earth system models (ESMs), from the buckling of local bearing elements in granular materials, to frictional sliding between grains, formation of microcracks in the soil matrix, rupture of capillary bridges, or breakage of plant roots3 is still very unlikely within the next decade, even with the help of exascale computers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting influenza activity using machine-learned mobility map

Human mobility is a primary driver of infectious disease spread. However, existing data is limited in availability, coverage, granularity, and timeliness. Data-driven forecasts of disease dynamics are crucial for decision-making by health officials and private citizens alike. In this work, we focus on a machine-learned anonymized mobility map (hereon referred to as AMM) aggregated over hundreds of millions of smartphones and evaluate its utility in forecasting epidemics. We factor AMM into a metapopulation model to retrospectively forecast influenza in the USA and Australia. We show that the AMM model performs on-par with those based on commuter surveys, which are sparsely available and expensive. We also compare it with gravity and radiation based models of mobility, and find that the radiation model’s performance is quite similar to AMM and commuter flows. Additionally, we demonstrate our model’s ability to predict disease spread even across state boundaries. Our work contributes towards developing timely infectious disease forecasting at a global scale using human mobility datasets expanding their applications in the area of infectious disease epidemiology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗